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<section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; font-size: 14.4px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 4em; height: 4em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url(http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaibAqBpD3b164GNZiatF2fdKiclV2lGJIGv7Ze0jxPSyslu4lIdVC1qUbicoVU5tLm1bGtQTe5XiaWWzQ/0?wx_fmt=png); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img class="" data-ratio="0.9409090909090909" data-w="220" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaibAqBpD3b164GNZiatF2fdKiclV2lGJIGv7Ze0jxPSyslu4lIdVC1qUbicoVU5tLm1bGtQTe5XiaWWzQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"  /></section></section><section style="width: 100%; margin-left: 1.2em; margin-top: -1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left; white-space: nowrap; overflow: hidden; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; height: 2em; margin-left: 1em; border-bottom-left-radius: 1em; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(27, 117, 16); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(27, 117, 16); max-width: 85% !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-left: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5; padding-right: 0.5em; font-size: 10.8px; color: rgb(56, 30, 5); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">  2017年1期主题：收缩城市与规划应对</p></section></section><section style="float: left; width: 5%; margin-left: -1px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; margin-top: 1.82em; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 5em; transform: rotate(-25deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-25deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-25deg); -o-transform: rotate(-25deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(27, 117, 16); width: 5em; margin: 2.45em 0px -0.5em 3.3em; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: block; float: left; padding: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); line-height: 1; margin-right: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">【主持人语】</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: block; padding-top: 5px; min-height: 4.5em !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(56, 30, 5); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">收缩城市的主要表现为由去工业化、郊区化、老龄化和社会结构转型等原因导致的城市人口总量减少、产业经济衰退<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">及发展用地空置等现象，相关研究在欧美等发达国家已经引起广泛关注。随着全球经济危机引发经济波动以及人口刘易斯拐点的出</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">现，我国城市发展出现一系列的结构性变化，新常态下城市增长与收缩的新现象将同时发生。为持续跟踪国内外收缩城市的研究进</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">展，2016年5月“首届中国收缩城市学术研讨会”在中山大学举办，来自国内外高等院校和科研单位的60多位专家与学者参加了</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">此次会议，会议议题涉及“识别收缩城市的空间范围”“定义收缩城市的指标”“收缩城市的分析框架”等话题。基于此，《规划师》2017年1期“规</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">划师论坛”栏目以“收缩城市与规划应对”为主题，围绕收缩城市的识别、不同地区城镇收缩特征和城市收缩的规划应对等展开探</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">讨，以期为读者们认识我国收缩城市的客观现实、空间结构与形成机理，探索应对收缩城市的路径和方法提供有益参考。</span></p><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: -webkit-linear-gradient(left, rgb(27, 117, 16), rgba(255, 247, 234, 0)) rgba(174, 81, 81, 0);"><section class="" style="padding: 5px 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">【主持人简介】</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">李　郇，教授，注册城市规划师，中山大学城市化研究院院长，中山大学地理科学与规划学院博士生导师，中国地理学会经济地理专业委员会委员。</p><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">龙　瀛，博士，清华大学建筑学院副研究员，北京城市实验室创建人，中国城市科学研究会城市大数据专业委员会副主任委员兼秘书长。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.01950354609929078" data-w="564" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/8MTKpL9NxLWxZV3ZAQq9W3ibp5nqlKyDn3eSXolJkaNvEgO4Ps3UMuGt9ofGjBzZwwgbFJTprXaQtXmjunDaOwg/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);" width="100%"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/gHSra6OY9cIwcWS3ZdknL7VstDia1WLvkrR5ibMkgdVhcEd8nU8JbTQO7PZ9cgSuuqdMsRRpABJeordicYK9hibwcA/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 2px solid white; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">【规划师论坛3】</strong></p><p style="clear: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈城市收缩现象研究</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(56, 30, 5); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">以人口流失为核心特征的城市收缩现象在我国普遍存在。作者<span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; text-indent: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">上海财经大学国际工商管理学院博士研究生</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; text-indent: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">刘玉博</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; text-indent: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">，上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院教授、博士生导师</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; text-indent: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">张学良</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; text-indent: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">在《规划师》2017年第1期撰文，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">文章利用我国第五次和第六次人口普查数据，分析武汉</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市圈城市人口分布空间格局变化，识别城市收缩现状，并以黄冈市为例，分析其城市收缩的背景、现状，提出规划应对。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">文章认为，武汉城市圈应制定区域的、整体的规划以促进圈内各城市功能互补、协调发展，并出台“收缩型的规划”以遏制</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">与人口流失相悖的土地蔓延状态，同时收缩城市未来发展规划的重点应由促进人口规模扩张向提高人口质量的方向转变。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 12.8px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background: -webkit-linear-gradient(left, rgb(27, 117, 16), rgba(255, 247, 234, 0)) white;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" font-size: 16px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">[ 关键词 ]武汉城市圈；城市收缩；人口流失；人口空间结构</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文章编号 ]1006-0022(2017)01-0018-08　</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">[ 中图分类号 ]TU984　</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文献标识码 ]B</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">[ 引文格式 ]刘玉博，张学良．武汉城市圈城市收缩现象研究 [J]．规划师，2017(1)：18-25.</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/gHSra6OY9cIwcWS3ZdknL7VstDia1WLvkrR5ibMkgdVhcEd8nU8JbTQO7PZ9cgSuuqdMsRRpABJeordicYK9hibwcA/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="border-radius: 0.5em 0.5em 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; font-size: 19.2px; padding: 5px 10px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一  </strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈城市收缩的界定和</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">识别</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="border-radius: 0px 0px 0.5em 0.5em; border-right-width: 1px; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-width: 1px; border-style: none solid solid; border-color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（一）收缩城市的概念</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 4px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">1988年德国学者H?u?ermann和<span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">Siebel首先提出“城市收缩”一词，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">用来描述城市发展过程中长期存在的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口大量流失现象</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">。其后Oswalt和</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">Rieniets等多位学者对世界范围内收缩</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">样本城市进行了系统研究</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，虽然</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">他们对“收缩城市”的定义有所差异，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">但是均以人口流失作为识别和衡量收缩</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市的核心指标。基于已有研究，结合</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">我国实际，本文将我国的收缩城市定义</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">为在快速城镇化过程中，常住人口出现</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">持续流失的城市。常住人口构成了地区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">生产和消费主体，可以较为客观地反映</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">地区的要素集聚能力，而要素集聚能力</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的高低从某种程度上成为了决定城市是</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">否收缩的关键。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">基于我国目前的行政区划，本文</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">从两种维度定义我国的城市收缩：①广</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">义的城市收缩，即在地级及以上城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">(盟、自治州、地区)层面，全市范围</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">内常住人口的持续下降；在县市(区)</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">层面，全县市(区)范围内常住人口的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">持续下降。②狭义的城市收缩，即在地</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">级及以上城市(盟、自治州、地区)层</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">面，市辖区范围内常住人口的持续下</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">降；在县市(区)层面，城关镇/街道</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">范围内常住人口的持续下降。相应的，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">出现收缩现象的城市即为收缩城市。广</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">义的收缩城市可以从总体上反映我国</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的人口空间分布和流失状况；狭义的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">收缩城市结合我国区划系统的特殊性，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">可以弥补我国城市区划空间过大的缺</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">点，更为精确地反映城市人口集聚能</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">力的强弱。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.0203125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/QkcLHEXicxqLkzQm9lcYUAqibhtnbbbTAYuibA42a3OFYu7LeYxvcnTiaFISI3dosy62ZYib9CzFaWQXOtg952ORKiaQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; max-height: 1.2em !important; box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"  /> <section class="" style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; margin: -0.9em auto 0.9em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; margin-left: 1px; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（二）数据来源及说明</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 4px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">本文利用第五次和第六次人口普<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">查数据，识别武汉城市圈的城市收缩状</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">态。结合收缩城市的定义和已有数据，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">本文将武汉城市圈的收缩城市具体界</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">定为：2000～2010年两次人口普查年</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">间人口增长率为负的地区。人口普查数</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">据显示，2010年武汉城市圈整体上包</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">含9市(6个地级市，3个省直辖县级市)，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">48 个县市 ( 区 )。与 2000 年相比，武</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">汉城市圈城镇人口规模上升16.92％，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">而总人口规模下降1.48％(表2)，说</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">明武汉城市圈仍处于快速城镇化过程</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">中，但武汉城市圈作为中部崛起的首位</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市圈和重要战略支点，总人口规模的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">下降意味着其对外来人口的集聚能力</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">减弱，这需要引起重视。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">此外，为避免对城市收缩的识别出<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">现误差，本文核查了 2000 ～ 2010 年</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈内各城市行政区划的变动情</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">况。其中，2001年黄石市石灰窑区更</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">名为西塞山区；2009年武汉市武昌区、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">青山区和洪山区出现内部区划调整。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">这两市的区划变动将微弱地影响对武</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">汉市江南三区收缩形态的判断。鉴于村</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">(社区)空间尺度数据的缺失，为保证</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">样本的完整性，本文依然以武汉市江</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">南三区原人口规模等数据识别城市收</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">缩现状。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.3078125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbXpx3evCXDdzxXWItzK4rhgnJEDPNwd9stHFBrvFhs4a67xZxKCXxcA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.0203125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/QkcLHEXicxqLkzQm9lcYUAqibhtnbbbTAYuibA42a3OFYu7LeYxvcnTiaFISI3dosy62ZYib9CzFaWQXOtg952ORKiaQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; max-height: 1.2em !important; box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"  /> <section class="" style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; margin: -0.9em auto 0.9em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; margin-left: 1px; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（三）武汉城市圈城市收缩识别</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 4px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">本文计算了两次人口普查年间武<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">汉城市圈9市全市和市辖区/街道范围</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的人口增长率，识别了武汉城市圈中广</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">义和狭义的收缩城市，并分别统计了各</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">行政单元收缩县市(区)和非收缩县市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">(区)的个数(表3)。可以看出，在9</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市中，仅武汉市和鄂州市的人口增长率</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">为正，其余7市均出现城市收缩现象。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">其中，仙桃市收缩最严重，人口增长率</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">为-20.28％。从狭义的收缩城市角度看，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市、咸宁市和潜江市市辖区或街道</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">范围的人口规模均出现不同程度的下</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">降。作为城市发展的核心区域，市辖区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">或街道范围人口的减少意味着城市的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">要素聚集能力较弱，未来发展出现衰退</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的可能性较大。此外，在48个县市(区)</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">中，有31个出现不同程度的人口流失，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">占比达64.58％，其中黄冈市和咸宁市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">两个地级市的县市(区)全部收缩，从</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">一定程度上说明两个地级市内部并不</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">存在明显的增长极，这值得进行深入</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">探讨。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.5734375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbiat5KqZwrn8dHo3L4bseWw9QCsCWJTp50QKve7aKibtfC9T6VXWaXk3g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/gHSra6OY9cIwcWS3ZdknL7VstDia1WLvkrR5ibMkgdVhcEd8nU8JbTQO7PZ9cgSuuqdMsRRpABJeordicYK9hibwcA/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 19.2px; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; margin-bottom: 4px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二  </strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈收缩城市的空间分布</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">与土地利用</span></strong></p></section><section style="border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(95, 94, 102); width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="line-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; transform: rotate(0deg); width: 1em; height: 1em; padding: 0.2em; border: 0.14em solid rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; height: 0.14em; margin: 0px -1em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 1em; height: 1em; padding: 0.2em; border: 0.14em solid rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section><section class="" style="padding: 0px 0.5em; margin: -0.14em 0px -0.21em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 0.14em solid rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（一）武汉城市圈 9 市收缩空间格局</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 4px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">将武汉城市圈收缩数据与地理信<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">息进行匹配后，可绘制图1。可以看</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">出，武汉城市圈核心区域仍在不断集聚</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口，表现为单中心极化经济发展模</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">式。具体来讲，两次人口普查年间武汉</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市圈增长最快的地区主要集中在武</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">汉市市辖区(新洲区和黄陂区除外)以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">及黄石市的下陆区和黄石港区，人口</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">增长最快的前十位县市(区)平均增速</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">为27.60％。同时，武汉城市圈非核心</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">区域的人口出现大规模下降，主要集中</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">在黄冈市和咸宁市，人口规模下降最</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">快的前十位县市(区)平均下降幅度为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">15.64％。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">城市的发展寓于区域之中，到区域<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">中心城市的距离影响着城市自身的经济</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">社会发展</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">。武汉城市圈9市和48</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">个县市(区)的人口空间分布即是以上</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">观点的现实表现。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.4375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbrGeXiccVFh0UZg72iaicxewia12jHUFc8agwt03PB0xXZO7WWstQyLyaoA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（二）武汉城市圈的土地利用</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="2.08187134502924" data-w="342" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbP6WoCxIkMJJmZhC9O8GH0qibBtNbTic1MrVaOLA13PRbTo6dPueUUw3Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.18208092485549132" data-w="346" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbFTDTM56HneOFCfBicmP7h7xDUC4o1ZqrSXoiaosUmR06DJ9ZcDmzPwCg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.4405797101449275" data-w="345" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbXs66prxVB4hwo5magZicefV60ibPYdac8jW9snicmxoGS4bnuzx9MNb1w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">表4汇总了武汉城市圈6大地级市<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的蔓延指数和蔓延增长率，并将它们与</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">湖北省均值和全国均值进行对比。不难</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">发现，除孝感市在2001～2010年的蔓</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">延程度有轻微下降外，其余5市的蔓延</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">程度均有所提高。对比表3，城市收缩</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">较为严重的黄冈市和咸宁市在2001年、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">2010年和2013年的蔓延指数均处于较</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">高水平；2001 ～ 2010 年，人口负增长</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">(-1.94％ ) 的黄石市的蔓延增长率最高，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">为 46.73％，2001 ～ 2013 年其蔓延增</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">长率高达63.64％。相较之下，武汉市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的蔓延程度和蔓延增长率处于较低水</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">平，这或许与武汉市可供开发的土地面</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">积较小有关，在人口不断增加的过程中</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">提高了土地利用效率。此外，从蔓延均</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">值看，与湖北省和全国相比，武汉城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">圈整体蔓延增长率的均值更高。以上数</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">据从一定程度上说明武汉城市圈并没有</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">积极响应城市收缩的事实，在总人口规</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">模下降的过程中，其土地利用面积仍然</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">在增加，总体上降低了土地利用效率。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.4421875" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbHtW1upVOJzNPmMqZtwiaOwVGYUTjpdAAhWf0LwrmYucwLtQO4KR0YrA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="line-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; transform: rotate(0deg); width: 1em; height: 1em; padding: 0.2em; border: 0.14em solid rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; height: 0.14em; margin: 0px -1em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 1em; height: 1em; padding: 0.2em; border: 0.14em solid rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/gHSra6OY9cIwcWS3ZdknL7VstDia1WLvkrR5ibMkgdVhcEd8nU8JbTQO7PZ9cgSuuqdMsRRpABJeordicYK9hibwcA/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 1em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="margin: 0px 0px -1.85em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 0.3em; margin-top: 0.3em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(159, 163, 174);"></section><section style="height: 0.3em; margin-top: 0.3em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(159, 163, 174);"></section><section style="height: 0.3em; margin-top: 0.3em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(159, 163, 174);"></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; line-height: 2.3em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; font-size: 18px; min-height: 2.3em !important; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三  <span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 2.3; box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈城市收缩的背景、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 2.3; box-sizing: border-box;">现状和应对：以黄冈市为例</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">不同的城市，城市收缩的原因以及<span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">应对城市收缩的重点不同。本文以黄冈</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市为例，讨论黄冈市城市收缩的背景、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">发展现状以及相关的城市规划。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（一） 黄冈市城市收缩的背景</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">由表3可知，在两次人口普查年间<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市市辖区出现持续的人口流失，且</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">内部10个县市(区)全部呈现收缩状态，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口总体减少13.32％。作为农业大市，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市的收缩与广大乡村地区类似，是</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">我国工业化发展的遗留问题，同时也有</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">其自身特点。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">根据对国内外相关研究文献的梳<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">理发现，劳动力流动一般被认为是工资</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">水平、舒适度与流动成本三者权衡的结</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">果</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，城市收缩往往与产业转型和资源</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">枯竭</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">、公共服务水平</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">、经济或政</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">治体制转轨</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">等因素相关。笔者认为，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市的收缩源于全球化背景下我国产</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">业结构升级的大环境，是我国工业化、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城镇化过程交互作用的结果。同时，黄</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">冈市的收缩趋势亦与武汉城市圈正处于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">不断极化的发展阶段相关。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">首先，较高比重的第一产业导致黄<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">冈市的人均收入水平较低，是黄冈市劳</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">动力大量外迁的推力。一般来说，劳动</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">力总是流向生产率和工资收入水平较高</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的地区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">。由于生产技术和方式的差异，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">农村工资水平较低成为黄冈市劳动力大</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">量外迁的直接原因。根据《湖北统计年</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">鉴 (2015)》数据，2014 年黄冈市农村</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">常住居民人均可支配收入为9388 元，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">仅高于恩施州、神农架林区和十堰市，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">低于湖北省10849元的平均水平。理</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">论上，随着我国经济发展和人均收入水</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">平的提高，劳动力将从农业部门向非农</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">业部门转移；同时，随着我国工业化程</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">度和技术水平的提升，资本对劳动的替</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">代作用增强</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，也促使黄冈市的农业劳</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">动力对外转移。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">其次，工业衰落导致黄冈市在快<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">速城镇化和工业化过程中人口吸引力</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">不足。利用 2000 ～ 2007 年工业企业</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">数据库的统计信息，2000年黄冈市规</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">模以上工业企业数占武汉城市圈企业</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">总数比重较高，为20.23％，且根据LP</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">方法</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">计算出的企业全要素生产率平</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">均水平为6.40，高于武汉城市圈6大</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">地级市6.15的平均水平；但至2007年，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市规模以上企业数占武汉城市圈</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">企业总数比重下降为16.52％，企业全</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">要素生产率平均水平虽有上升，为6.52，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">但已低于武汉城市圈6大地级市6.84</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的平均水平。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">最后，武汉城市圈不断极化的发<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">展趋势是黄冈市人口大量转移的拉力。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈的城镇人口不断增加，而总</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口规模不断下降，说明武汉城市圈处</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">于快速城镇化过程中，农村人口不断向</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市集中。此外，在除鄂州市的其他7</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市人口减少的情况下，武汉市人口增加</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">率为17.72％，反映出武汉市明显的单</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">极化集聚发展趋势。集聚经济导致人口</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">等要素由农村向城市集中，同时由周边</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市向区域中心城市集中，形成中心城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市对周边中小城市的“虹吸效应”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">推力和拉力的共同作用，形成了黄冈市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口等要素不断流出的现实背景。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.0203125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/QkcLHEXicxqLkzQm9lcYUAqibhtnbbbTAYuibA42a3OFYu7LeYxvcnTiaFISI3dosy62ZYib9CzFaWQXOtg952ORKiaQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; max-height: 1.2em !important; box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"  /> <section class="" style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; margin: -0.9em auto 0.9em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; margin-left: 1px; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（二）黄冈市经济社会发展现状</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">城市的基本特征是人口与经济在空<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">间的集中</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，因此城市人口的减少往往</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">意味着经济发展活力的下降。本文将两</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">次人口普查数据与经济发展数据进行匹</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">配，对比两次人口普查年间黄冈市经</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">济、社会、财政和公共服务等指标的表</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">现，并将其与武汉城市圈均值和湖北省</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">均值进行比较。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">表5～表7分别统计了黄冈市两次<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口普查年间人口、经济和社会等发展</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">指标。与武汉城市圈、湖北省和全国均</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">值对比，总体上黄冈市的城市收缩呈现</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">以下特点：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">(1)人口规模较大、人口密度较低。<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市面积为武汉城市圈的1/3，人口</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">绝对规模较大，为武汉城市圈的1/5。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">但是其城市收缩较严重，人口规模总</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">体下降13.32％，造成城市人口密度较</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">低，2010年人口密度仅为武汉城市圈</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的71.91％。较低的人口密度意味着较</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">低的经济活动强度，总体上不利于经济</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">效率的提高。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">(2)高质量劳动力比重偏低、城镇<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">化水平低下。本文从技能水平和年龄结</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">构两个方面考察黄冈市的劳动力质量。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">借鉴Diamond</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的做法，以大专及以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">上学历人口代表高技能劳动力，由表6</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">可知，黄冈市高技能劳动力的比重仅</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">为武汉城市圈的56.34％。同时，以15</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">～59岁人口代表劳动年龄人口，发现</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市劳动年龄人口比重低于武汉城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市圈2.92个百分点；而60岁以上老龄</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口比重高出武汉城市圈2.42个百分</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">点。另外，城镇化率代表了农村人口向</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城镇地区集中的程度，从以上统计数据</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">看，黄冈市城镇化率仅为34.80％，低</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">于武汉城市圈约18个百分点。与湖北</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">省或全国比较，黄冈市以上指标皆有较</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">差的表现。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">(3)经济效率水平和人均固定资产<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">投资水平较低、财政支出偏高。黄冈</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市经济效率较低，2010年代表劳均生</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">产率的人均GDP仅为武汉城市圈的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">48.05％，为湖北省均值的 52.22％，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">全国均值的42.58％；代表地均生产率</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的单位面积GDP仅为武汉城市圈的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">23.79％。从人均固定资产投资看，黄</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">冈市这一指标较低，仅为武汉城市圈的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">56.05％，且低于湖北省均值和全国均值。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">与此相反，黄冈市2010年财政支出占</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">GDP比重较高，为21.23％，高出武汉</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市圈约 6 个百分点。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">以上数据一方面解释了黄冈市发生<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市收缩的直接原因，即较低的收入水</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">平推动劳动力大量外迁；另一方面，高</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">质量劳动力比重较低以及生产效率的持</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">续下降，意味着黄冈市未来将面临较为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">严峻的发展形势。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.384375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbQVk8ygMA6CW46kJ2dPfrVE0hFc9ic4rbmfrbhe97Ox1u1OzdUdiayzsg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.4359375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbmiac3bF5RDmQXId2PZ5XT811yT4NiayoK42fH0eTtOrJsMwnD7fhQ79w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.440625" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricbPLQkTQahNyKOjV22PJ54fBPEP4ibxtz8W4iaSpz3RSibUonXakZZ5VZEA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.0203125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/QkcLHEXicxqLkzQm9lcYUAqibhtnbbbTAYuibA42a3OFYu7LeYxvcnTiaFISI3dosy62ZYib9CzFaWQXOtg952ORKiaQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; max-height: 1.2em !important; box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"  /> <section class="" style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; margin: -0.9em auto 0.9em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; margin-left: 1px; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（三）<span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市收缩背景下增长型的城市</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">规划</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">在快速人口流失这一客观背景下，<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市是否能够合理地规划城市发展</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">布局，以应对城市收缩？笔者发现，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">总体上黄冈市或许并没有制定合理的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">应对城市收缩的发展规划。这主要体</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">现在黄冈市土地利用面积不断扩张与</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口规模迅速下降形成的鲜明对比上。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">根据《中国国土资源统计年鉴》(2006 </span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">—2012 年 )，2005 年黄冈市土地出</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">让面积为 225.26hm2</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">；至 2011 年，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">土地出让面积达880.31hm2</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，增长了</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">290.80％，与城市收缩的现实形成强烈</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">对比。这与杨东峰等人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">利用航空影</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">像资料发现空间扩张与人口流失并存的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">结论相同。如表4所示，根据夜间灯光</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">数据和人口密度数据计算出2013年黄</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">冈市土地蔓延指数为0.46，高于武汉城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市圈均值，也高于湖北省均值和全国均</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">值。另外，根据《黄冈市经济和社会发</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">展第十一个五年规划纲要》和《黄冈市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">要》，并没有发现与人口减少趋势相关</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的规划制定方案。相反的，按照规划目</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">标，经济总量、投资总量和出口总量等</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">需要持续增长(表8)。黄冈市政府在人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">口流失的背景下，近十年来依然制定和</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">实施了经济增长率为10％以上的方针</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">政策，将来的规划可能需要进行转型。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.390625" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhwHejMyY45Hg63hIV9fricblMq8h7cFGLR7YtZ4iakJYQP4AnbAbtRUn6pB3vCICJ6BA8OXRR83mKw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/gHSra6OY9cIwcWS3ZdknL7VstDia1WLvkrR5ibMkgdVhcEd8nU8JbTQO7PZ9cgSuuqdMsRRpABJeordicYK9hibwcA/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding: 0px 8px; border-top-left-radius: 0.5em; border-top-right-radius: 0.5em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三  结论与政策建议</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（一）主要结论</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">本文以武汉城市圈为例，基于两<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">次人口普查数据，识别并分析了武汉城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市圈9市和48个县市(区)的收缩现</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">状。结果发现，除构成武汉城市圈核心</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">区的武汉市和鄂州市外，其余7市均有</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">不同程度的收缩，其中仙桃市的收缩率</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">达-20.28％，其次为黄冈市，收缩率为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">-13.32％，呈现显著的单极化集聚发展</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">趋势。为考察人口收缩背景下武汉城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">圈的城市发展格局，本文利用人口密度</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">和夜间灯光数据构建土地蔓延指数，发</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">现虽然武汉城市圈人口规模整体下降，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">但是土地蔓延增长率较湖北省和全国平</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">均水平高，可能出现了土地利用率下降</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的问题。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">为分析城市收缩的原因，并形成<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">应对城市收缩的针对性措施，本文以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市为例，分析其城市收缩的背景、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">目前的城市发展状态及相关城市发展</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">规划。基于已有研究和我国发展特征，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">本文指出，黄冈市城市收缩是我国快</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">速工业化、城镇化的产物，并与单极</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">倾向的武汉城市圈发展进程相关。黄</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">冈市人口规模的持续下降意味着经济</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">社会发展活力下降，在2000年至2010</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">年间，黄冈市人口密度、经济效率、社</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">会投资、教育水平和人口结构等方面的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">发展不尽如人意，然而近十年来黄冈市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">依然制定了经济扩张的发展规划，或许</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">未来黄冈市的发展应向“适应人口减少”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的方向转型。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.0203125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/QkcLHEXicxqLkzQm9lcYUAqibhtnbbbTAYuibA42a3OFYu7LeYxvcnTiaFISI3dosy62ZYib9CzFaWQXOtg952ORKiaQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%; max-height: 1.2em !important; box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"  /> <section class="" style="width: 0.6em; height: 0.6em; margin: -0.9em auto 0.9em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; margin-left: 1px; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(27, 117, 16);"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; border-top-right-radius: 1em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1em; border: 2px solid rgb(27, 117, 16); padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(27, 117, 16); box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">（二）政策建议</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">按照《武汉城市圈区域发展规划<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">(2013—2020 年 )》，武汉城市圈将建</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">设成为“全国两型社会建设示范区、全</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">国自主创新先行区、全国重要的先进制</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">造业和高技术产业基地、全国重要的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">综合交通运输枢纽、中部地区现代服务</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">业中心和促进中部地区崛起的重要增长</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">极”。武汉城市圈人口总量的持续下降</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">值得关注：虽然武汉市人口总量增加，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">但是圈内其他城市普遍出现的城市收缩</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">现象令人担忧，不利于圈内健康的城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">体系的建立。在上述研究结论的基础上，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">本文提出以下三点应对城市收缩的政策</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">建议。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">(1)强调“区域性规划”，制定具<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">有区域协同效应的战略规划体系。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">笔者认为收缩城市应以区域的、发</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">展的眼光看待收缩和适应收缩，制定与</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">武汉城市圈总体规划具有协同效应的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">战略规划体系，实现各类规划在跨区域</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">层面的“多规合一”。从收缩形态看，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">除自身的地理资源禀赋外，武汉市作为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">区域中心城市，对周边区域产生的“虹</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">吸效应”或许是武汉城市圈7市发生</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">收缩的重要原因之一。集聚经济使区域</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">中心城市产生生产率优势</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，继而形</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">成空间增长极，区域外围城市的人口规</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">模虽然下降，但是却提高了人口等要素</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">在核心区域的聚集程度，总体上提升了</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">区域效率。因此，武汉城市圈的收缩应</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">更加关注区域的、整体的利益，以适应</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">收缩。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">以黄冈市为例，未来黄冈市的发展<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">应注重与武汉市形成区域协同，利用武</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">汉市的便利条件并结合自身优势，考虑</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">重点推进文化和旅游产业的发展。基于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">产业定位，黄冈市战略规划应着重强</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">调与武汉城市圈在基础设施建设、公共</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">服务和社会保障、环境治理等方面的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">衔接，服务于与武汉市相配套的产业</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">带或产业聚集区。此外，在制度建设上，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市应积极推动与武汉城市圈跨区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">域合作方案的制定，弱化行政壁垒，致</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">力于形成多层次、多形式的行政协调</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">机制。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">(2)适应“收缩型规划”，控制与<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口流失不相称的空间扩张趋势。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">过去三十多年我国经济势能和制</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">度红利的释放，形成了以增长为主题的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">“扩张型规划”。然而在人口大量流失</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的背景下，政府依然不加节制地提高财</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">政支出等以刺激增长，可能导致人口老</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">龄化、社会不均等和高失业率等其他问</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">题。表4显示，武汉城市圈内大部分</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市仍在延续扩张型发展路径，在城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">收缩的背景下，出现土地蔓延与人口收</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">缩的悖论。根据国际城市管理经验，城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市收缩虽然可能意味着迟缓的经济增</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">长，但是同时包含着“空间置换”和“人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">与社会和谐发展”的机遇</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，这为应</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">对城市收缩提供了新的思路，也是城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">体系优化和结构更新换代的机遇。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">未来城市发展规划的重点应由规</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">模扩张转向质量提升，应借鉴“精明收</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">缩”的理念——“更少的人、更少的建</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">筑、更少的土地利用”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">，关注城市持</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">续的潜在发展动力，制定更合理的适应</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">城市人口规模的空间策略。以黄冈市为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">例，未来城市发展规划的重点与其放在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">存量人口的增长和持续扩张的土地利用</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">上，不如通过提供更为宜居的环境、塑</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">造更为精致的城市旅游文化，如增设公</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">共绿地、都市农业区等，吸引流量人口</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">的增加，提升城市活力。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">(3)突出“重点改善规划”，着重<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">解决收缩城市人力资本流失的问题。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口流失或许并不必然意味着城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">衰败，然而人力资本质量的下降将对城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">市未来的健康发展造成巨大的威胁。以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">黄冈市为例，黄冈市高技能劳动力占比</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">仅为武汉城市圈整体水平的56.34％；</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">劳动参与率较高的15～59岁人口占比</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">低于武汉城市圈整体水平2.92个百分</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">点。高技能劳动力及劳动年龄人口的流</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">失将降低黄冈市的经济效率，并将增加</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">社会管理成本，故必须予以重视。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">因此，与其试图逆转城市收缩趋势，<span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">不如将未来城市发展规划的重点放在如</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">何抑制高质量人才的流失，以及人口结</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">构的优化问题上。具体可以从以下三个</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">方面努力：①减少人口自由流动障碍，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">因势利导，形成合理的人口分布结构和</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">人口在重点区域的有序集聚；②适当提</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">高对高技能劳动力的工资福利补贴，并</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">建设完善的民生保障体系以应对老龄化</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">趋势；③在区域协同的基础上，壮大当</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">地特色产业，并重视培养适应当地特色</span><span style="text-indent: 2em; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 1.45; box-sizing: border-box;">产业发展的专职人才。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img class="" data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/gHSra6OY9cIwcWS3ZdknL7VstDia1WLvkrR5ibMkgdVhcEd8nU8JbTQO7PZ9cgSuuqdMsRRpABJeordicYK9hibwcA/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width: 100%; 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