国匠城工作台

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<section style="line-height: 2; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4eO9mgyI3Fa88oLCWniccBxv3xjb7fegv9Ngdjs0QD9ju39EAaF3rake3PEfCkTI66WCqkbTbRsrw7Q%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.6796875" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding-left: 1em; padding-right: 1em; display: inline-block; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="display: inline-block; padding: 0.3em 0.5em; border-radius: 0.5em; font-size: 16px; color: white; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);" class=""><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">30周年学术报告会</section></span> </section><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(192, 200, 209); margin-top: -1em; padding: 20px 10px 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(239, 239, 239);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">在北规院建院30周年学术报告会上，特邀清华大学教授江亿、东南大学教授王建国、中规院院长杨保军、清华大学教授尹稚等10位专家作学术报告。我们将陆续把专家们的精彩报告推送给大家。敬请关注！</section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3W6ib3OV3z7yrH4DTDxHyNcwXdRkc35rYy5FkkalAHSiaa0cVvYOFUc55g%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.665625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(192, 200, 209); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(239, 239, 239);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 20px; color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">张国华</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="group-empty" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 12%; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 88%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">国家发改委城市中心交通规划院院长</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">博士、教授、高级规划师</section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">在北京市规划院建院30年学术报告会上，国家发改委城市中心交通规划院院长张国华从新环境下的城市发展及新视野下的规划理念入手，提出了交通、产业、空间三要素统筹协同的规划创新思路，并结合城市群层面和城市层面实践案例探讨了交通规划与城市规划、产业经济相融合的规划方法，呼吁以规划创新拥抱城市发展的不确定性。</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 45%; margin-top: 0.2em; border: 1px dotted rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; float: right; width: 45%; margin-top: 0.2em; border: 1px dotted rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="width: 0.5em; height: 0.5em; margin: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(45deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(45deg); -moz-transform: rotate(45deg); -o-transform: rotate(45deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0.5em; height: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); font-size: 20px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一、新型城镇化下协同发展的新视野</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划创新的起点是理念的创新，而理念创新需要透视新环境，解读新需求，打开新视野。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">当前城市规划面临着诸多新视野，一是要关注从确定性到不确定性的转变。</span>刚刚召开的中央城市工作会议特别强调了要认识、尊重和顺应城市发展规律。什么是城市发展规律？我的解读是，<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">城市是市场经济的产物，而不是计划经济的产物；是工业文明发展的结果，而不是农业文明发展的结果；是自由、平等、开放的，而不是权力等级封闭的</span>。可见，城市发展的高度不确定性，是城市的本质特征。这种高度的不确定性与规划又是什么关系呢？柏拉图告诉我们：每个人到世界上都面临着此岸的不完美、短暂和不和谐！所以每个人、每个组织、每个地区总想追求完美的、永恒的、不变的、理想的彼岸世界，这就是<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">计划经济下的规划哲学——追求高度的确定性</span>。而市场经济以不确定性为特征，意味着更多的可能性和更大的探索空间，未来的规划应该关注不确定性，<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">支持市场和企业拥抱不确定性才是市场经济下的规划哲学</span>。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">二是要关注从土地的城镇化向人的城镇化的转变。</span>过去30年。中国凭借低成本的劳动力、低成本的环境、低成本的工业用地实现了持续的经济高速增长和城市快速扩张，但是大量进入城市的人口不得不以低收入面对高房价，现实的挑战证明低成本竞争只能解决土地的城镇化，解决不了人的城镇化。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">就业和住所才是人口城镇化的基础</span>，只有通过投资驱动向创新驱动转变，才能带动产业升级和收入提高，同时通过工业用地的高效利用和降低居住用地的价格，扭转“低收入-高房价”的困境。而这一转变的过程面临着<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">“三低”成本向“三高”成本的转变</span>，低劳动力成本、低环境成本、低用地成本是过去30年快速城镇化的法宝，而下一阶段的新型城镇化将面对高物流成本、高市场交易成本、高服务业成本，这对规划提出了更大的挑战。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">三是要关注产城的融合。</span>回到交通规划本身，交通学科从它诞生的第一天起就强调交通与城市规划的结合，从交通土地一体化，到交通引导开发（TOD），再到现在推广的公交都市。但是，正像“牧童呼喊狼来了一样，喊三遍就没有人相信了；”但是我们今天之所以还在呼吁，恰恰说明过去60年来二者的结合仍有不尽如人意之处。问题根源何在？<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">事实上，产业才是城镇化的源泉，交通问题、土地问题是社会经济集聚在城镇空间上的反映和投影</span>。未来我们需要回答的是，基于不同的经济条件和交通运输条件的变化，<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">人口如何在空间上迁移，产业如何在空间上变迁，这才是重塑城镇化的两个关键力量。</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 20px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二、TIS(交通·产业·空间)协同发展的理论</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">回顾交通、产业、城市发展的历史脉络（图1），从18世纪的“码头城市”到21世纪的“交通枢纽都市”，历史发展的轨迹证明<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">产业升级、城市演进与交通系统相伴而生、相伴而行，一个地区的竞争力关键在于该地区的全要素生产率，其关键就体现于产业和空间的组织效率</span>。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3WqibEM1e2YbjnGjLTE4VicQalSmraUBqRuJKLKg9o84xRl0UwgEuGJOlQ%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.5328125" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">图1  交通、产业与城镇发展的历史透视分析</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">经典的农业区位论、工业区位论和中心地理论讲述的是产业空间布局与交通有着紧密的关系。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者克鲁格曼在新经济地理学中对传统理论进行了反思，主流经济学忽略了产业经济的空间区位，原因是缺乏分析工具来严谨地思考报酬递增和垄断性竞争。现代产业在空间上高度集聚，一个城市的规模扩大一倍，人均生产效率提高15-30%，人均基础设施消耗成本降低15%，一反一正相差30-45%，意味着五百万人口的城市和一千万人口的城市是没法竞争的。集聚带来的规模效应，也就是经济学所讲的垄断性竞争空间，在此阶段经济增长不再是线性增长，而是非线性的。因此规划会面临需求预测的难题，对于传统城市规划的一系列指标，可以肯定地说我们的预测是不准确的，所以未来的需求预测应该转到对于真实的判别，而不再是对于定量的准确判断。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">传统的经济地理学告诉我们，不同类型的产业和交通空间具有不同的相关性，新经济地理学重点在于研究产业集聚、报酬递增和运输成本之间的定量关系。，在这里我把交通与产业的关系进行定性描述。把运输成本分为三种类型：第一类是运输成本对应资源型产业。</span>这类产业的运输成本通常占其生产成本的30%以上，以钢铁、化工为代表，多采取低成本的水运、铁路等方式，通常沿海、沿港、靠近铁路枢纽布局。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">第二类运输成本对应资本经济型产业。</span>看重以产品为代表的资本快速流通，希望实现门到门的运输，多采取汽车和公路，所以经济开发区和工业园区基本沿高速公路沿线布局。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">第三类运输成本对应信息密集产业。</span>包括高端生产性服务业、高端消费性服务业、以IT为代表的高端制造业，不仅要求信息快速流通，交换过程中更需重视面对面交流，这需要人和信息的快速运输，对应的交通方式是高铁和航空。这三种类型的产业布局与不同交通设施的协同在几乎每个城市中都有迹可循。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 20px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、TIS(交通·产业·空间)协同创新规划与实践探索</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">国务院发展研究中心和世界银行在《高效、包容、可持续的中国城镇化》研究报告中提到，目前很多城市规划基本都没能很好地考虑城市功能及不断变化的城市经济，也忽视了市场的力量及公共机构的重大投资计划。城市规划要改变，就需要从大学的规划专业、规划行业及相关的关键部委发起。另外，目前的注册规划师制度更多关注规划技术的培训，对社会经济、公共政策的关注严重缺乏。因此在新型城镇化背景下，城市规划人才建设和体系建设迫切需要进行创新与变革。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">正如黄艳副部长讲到的，规划师不能再用单纯的工程思维看待城市复杂性的问题，不能再只满足于画图，而更多的应该考虑如何用公共政策管理制度来解决城市的问题。城镇化的未来如何做到知行合一，关键要构建新的空间经济理论和制度经济理论，建设一支真正能把公共政策的制定和城市规划建设融为一体的政府机构、智库以及企业网络。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">未来的规划体系亟待重构。目前以城市总体规划为核心的规划体系对交通设施和产业经济缺乏研究，城市规划的内容缺乏与相应决策部门的对接，所以<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">未来规划体系应该调整为两个层面（图2）：城市群层面要以对外交通基础设施、产业布局及城镇体系结构作为顶层设计并重点关注；城市层面应以城市功能结构、空间形态和交通网络相互协同为重点。</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3WFNSg1mialHUibPd2GGzxia9OMM78zakiaCwjDm7PQysLQzMvFjibp02J1pA%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.66875" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">图2  未来规划体系重构设想</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">进一步看城市群层面，</span>我们要梳理好哪些产业是资源集聚型的产业、哪些是资本密集型的产业、哪些是信息密集型的产业、哪些是面向国家的、哪些是面向国际的，配置以相应的交通基础设施布局及高效物流体系服务；城市空间的价值如何在这种全球视野、区域视野、地区视野下实现，等等，这些都是我们需要在规划上解决好的问题。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3WPrVH1IGXUqwmIoVgMhytoHTH9J8TLjYuhBz88OicSzQ6LQOibzznjVKQ%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.820097244732577" data-w="617"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">图3  城市群层面的规划技术流程</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">同样的在城市层面上，</span>客运枢纽体系应该和城市的生产性、生活性和公共服务业三大中心体系结合，物流枢纽体系高效支撑城市的产业布局；未来的大城市平面坐标应该由快速路网决定，纵坐标应该由轨道决定，城市重大的开发都应该集中在轨道沿线和站点周边，这样的城市才是高效的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3WrvzwwlbsGE4j2ezGkyTZxq5nNvwXp8z6HWQ4aNHq1O8325mfz8KsFg%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.7578125" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">图4  城市层面的规划技术流程</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">以长沙为例子来看，在长沙的规划空间结构中，西北角以食品加工业为主，另外两块大的产业分别是西边的高新区和东边的开发区，长沙未来的产业布局和交通的关系应该如图5所示：北部是围绕货运港口做食品仓储的基础性产业，东西两个装备制造业组团要与城市实现产城融合，东部的装备制造业还要和临空产业实现结合。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3WouQ4Wb2e9A0Q8ZhCKsPPScXX3uKzINO2cYX2OzjgPYGblPxibarwKdA%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="0.7332268370607029" data-w="626"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">图5  长沙市要素空间拓扑结构重构</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">再举一个武汉的例子，这是一个天然的多中心城市，480公里的轨道网是城市最重要的一套交通支撑系统，然而这套支撑系统和城市的中心体系却并不怎么协调（图6），主中心之间的轨道联系不足、规划的城市中心轨道网密度低、轨道网密集处却未规划城市中心……这样的轨道网很难支持武汉成为国家中心城市。但其实把武汉的名字拿下来，放到全国看任何一个其他的城市，也同样很难处理好这类问题，所以未来不能再就交通论交通，必须统筹考虑综合交通与城市功能和空间布局的关系。</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" class="" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz%5Fjpg%2FicKFe0wqE4ePiaVRYB5q2o2zhGm1JAlv3W5FCxAL4sdh6XgibCKDDS2wMnb6GMW9USXVibd2WGU7kSx8bGg4C8ZDpA%2F0%3Fwx%5Ffmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="1.0678733031674208" data-w="442"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">图6  武汉市轨道网与城市中心体系图</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 20px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四、呵护“黑天鹅”，拥抱城市发展的不确定性</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">人们曾经都认为天鹅是白的，但是自从在澳大利亚发现黑天鹅，我们才知道世界上有黑白两种天鹅。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">黑天鹅告诉我们什么？告诉我们的是你不知道的比知道的更有意义。</span>显然我们今天的城镇化和城乡规划都面临巨大的转型，转型过程中可能激发的创新与变革就那只黑天鹅。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划也许需要更多地研究确定性，但更重要是为不确定性留下空间，让看不到的不确定性进入我们的视野。</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">按照我们现在正在做的国家中心城市研究，现在世界上最好的两个城市是伦敦和纽约，而将来世界上最好的下一个城市很可能会是北京，所以在此祝福作为大国首都规划智库的北规院，拥抱和呵护好这只黑天鹅，在未来30年中走出一条创新发展的新道路！</section></section></section></section></section>
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