国匠城工作台

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<section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; letter-spacing: 15px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="letter-spacing: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一<span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"></span><span style="line-height: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);">览<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>众<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>山<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>小</span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;">SustainableCity & Transportation</span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 1em 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuLdLicesJjOu1L0efuHDPMibwgArVa3BwAbv6Z6Vicrbpsm2eraXTtl0rw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg"); background-attachment: scroll; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); background-size: 100%; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(8, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">     编辑团队</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; border-color: rgb(8, 8, 8); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">  原文/   F. Kaid Benfield、Rafael Pereira   </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">  翻译/ 刘轶凡   <span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">文献/ </span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">戴绍勍</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">   排版/ 王雅桐 </span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">  校核/ 众山小   <span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">编辑/ 众山小   </span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="group-empty" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 38.2%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; width: 80%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWu0icStr2uaTb6PMkcO6HJEpoicSAPS3NkTX9w7agibkf8ItC7Mqx6wAgBg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1" data-w="170"  /></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 61.8%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0px 3px 0px 0px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(63, 142, 183); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">作者萌像&导读：</strong></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: block; min-height: 4.5em !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">最近上海总规人口规模引起热议。到底什么样规模的城市才是可持续且和谐的呢？这一直是我们探索追求的未知领域。在尽可能满足人类需求的前提下，最大化保护自然环境的健康，而规划是这种平衡的主要的手段。随着城市逐渐发展，人口的增长、交通的负担、土地、空气、水污染的问题都一一呈现在我们眼前。如何在发展和保护中间找到一个最佳的平衡点并付之于规划行动呢？我们有太多的问题需要解决，那么就看看则一介绍的城市可持续发展规模说吧。而则二进一步阐述了由耶鲁大学开发的城市扩张评估工具。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/InLlteaKYOicTAlNnHmmVatLE4RVEZYRof8icq6MdpyzXNUXTEoRiaEibAtU3qyKgaFakbIOAs2UKpy0Vhl3S5107Q/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.3125" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: -30px 0% 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(215, 44, 44); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">▼请看正文</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 20em; height: 3em; line-height: 3.2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7Czic8YAUXY3ZjibEtJvlUGGicS88JtGltEylGm85nsC4fWo7CcGoCFPO4WKgUs2Fee8TpibkJsd2GljHfLAPQ4APQ/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 20px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">则一、城市可持续发展规模说</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">原文/ F. Kaid Benfield   翻译/ 刘轶凡</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuP0b4UL6EMr8dT5Xy7nYESCVNUp5e8uvUZeU0N7dDicRvXsCvic8fxg8A/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.634375" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图一、城市可持续发展规模说</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">我的整个职业生涯基本都用来思考一件事，就是人类居住与环境可持续之间的交会。我尤其对于美国城市、小镇和郊区的建筑环境感兴趣——我喜欢称它们为“人类栖息地”——以及这些地方和自然世界是如何联系在一起的。我们是如何让这两个国度——人类栖息地和自然栖息地更加和谐的呢？</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">这些问题如今非常尖锐地存在于我的意识里，因为我正在为下个月初应邀去做的关于“城市化与可持续”的演讲做准备。（如果你对此感兴趣，这个演讲将会在年度新都市主义全国代表大会上进行，6月8号早上10点15分在底特律）</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市可持续发展的规模平衡</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">我想我应该从我自己对于“环境可持续”的定义说起。我使用这个词的时候通常采取它通俗的意思，也就是环境的健康。更正式一点，大部分学者会从可持续发展在论文“我们共同的未来”中的定义来开始说起。这篇论文也被称为“布伦兰特报告”（Brundtland Report）<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请联系我们索取）</strong></span>：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">可持续发展是一种既满足当下需求，而又不牺牲未来人们满足他们需求的能力的发展。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">或者就像我的朋友Steve Mouzon形象地说道：“我们能不能让一切以一种健康的方式持续下去，一直持续到我们不确定的未来？”</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">说到城市的可持续化，我觉得把注意力集中在两个地理规模上是很有帮助的：区域（一般被定义为都市区）和邻里社区。它们两个都非常重要。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">首先，现实生活中我们的城市经济运转是建立在市区地理上的，这里不考虑具体城市、郊区、城镇和郡的正式管辖界线；我们的通勤模式和交通系统也是一样。辛辛那提大都市，也就是文章顶部图片里所显示的都市，从图片里看起来是无缝的；但事实上我们是从俄亥俄河流的肯塔基州方向看过去，将无数的合法独立的自治市尽收眼底。亚特兰大大都市（下面是部分的卫星视图），根据人口普查，人口是严格意义上亚特兰大市区的12倍，而面积更是令人震惊地达到了亚特兰大市区的62倍。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuIF70iarsMiaDkGicTA7bia2KVsBxiavgwY4PTbZlrk9JrnIdylUxxAmO3KA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.0078740157480315" data-w="635"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图二、亚特兰大大都市</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">有时候我们考虑的应该是比都市更为广阔的地区。尤其是我们水道的健康，它是由水域里的状况决定的，而水域的面积可能相当大。切萨皮克湾的水域就围绕了整整64000平方英里的土地，包括了六个州和哥伦比亚特区。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">由于人、商品、服务以及重要的环境媒介比如空气，水和能源这些东西无时无刻不在穿越着地理上的司法管辖界线，一个区域里某个部分发生的事会对另一个部分产生深远的影响。当一个城市或城镇周边的地区没有达到可持续化时，我们是无法使它达到可持续化的。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">第二，即使一个区域整体来说有着可持续的实际设定，如果构成它的邻里社区不够健康、宜居和吸引人的话，我们许多人也不会想住在那里。简单来说，邻里社区是我们每天体验周遭环境的地方，对于我们来说是最重要的地方，并且最直接地影响着我们的健康和幸福。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">邻里社区也是变化日渐增加、我们最为关心、也最容易改变的地方。这一点商业社区、混合型社区和居民区都符合。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuEWHuvIjdpCrB41QQ52F65GAJvKFGibqicJ8Kd9h2ulZpBicd71ia5wLibgQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.75" data-w="500"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三、邻里社区是我们生活的核心</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">如果都市代表了人类栖息地的经济规模，邻里社区则代表了人的规模。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">前路上的增长挑战</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">所有类型的邻里社区，以及所有类型的市区，在未来的几十年内都会面临压力。这是由于美国都市面积所占的压倒性比重造成的。总的来说，我们85%的人居住的面积都将会经历实质性的增长。这个国家的某些部分会比其他部分发生更剧烈的扩张——菲尼克斯和图森市的人口按计划都将在2010到2050年之间扩张两倍以上，而五大湖地区的人口同时期将仅仅增长28%而已。整个国家所面临的容纳需求增长的挑战将只会是程度有所不同的问题。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">到目前为止，我们太了解如何不让这件事发生了。我们在20世纪后期这样做，以及21世纪的某些地方继续这样做。我们让人口、工作和资金蔓延到农村，确确实实去寻找更绿的牧场来进行建造，同时让我们的旧邻里社区和城镇继续恶化。而这样肆虐蔓延的结果就是景观的减少，因为农场、森林和水域都被铺装了起来。还有汽车交通的大量增长以及随之而来的污染，因为我们需要开越来越远的路去完成我们要做的事。还有市政预算增长的负担，因为设施和服务资金都被稀释得太少了。还有来自落后人群的经济和社会压力，这些在集中贫困地区都太常见了。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuWkYY8xko8CoQDELwzic6d1hx83yA2hJN8ySN4vbMI9Rm159CbTBJRiaw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.75" data-w="500"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图四、有待更新的邻里社区</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">为了能在面临发展的同时有机会实现可持续，我们必须要换种方式。我们必须更有效率地利用土地，在现有的发展蓝图中，只要有可能，就在空地和未充分使用的土地上以步行可达的密度来进行建造。我们必须让更多的人能更方便地到达工作的地方、购物的地方、便利设施，也更靠近舒适可靠的交通方式。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">那些我们的旧社区和邻里社区薄弱的方面，我们必须要将它们加强巩固。我们的新郊区建得太随意的地方，我们必须利用好机会去重新审视它们的结构，使它们更好地生效。我们的自然和农村环境受到威胁的地方，我们必须要小心的保护（顺便说一句，我们城镇里的历史古迹也是一样）。那些被规划和发展决策遗漏的地区，我们必须把它们包含进来。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">这就是我们所谓的“城市化”里面所包含的价值。也有人称之为质量型增长，或精明增长。不管是从市区还是邻里社区的层面来说，城市化通常对于环境都非常有帮助。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">从市区的规模来看，城市化对于可持续发展管理来说是一笔极好的财产。较密集的发展模式创造出一定范围内的有效性，相比起蔓延式发展来说，降低了每个人对于市区发展的人均影响。从邻里社区的规模来看，步行可达性带来了可观的公共健康的益处，避免了开车的必要。城市以及步行距离以内的城郊生活在市场内也是备受追捧的。对于城市生活的需求正在增长。事实上，一份最近发表在华盛顿邮报上的房地产数据的分析显示，全国的城市和中心城郊社区价值都在上升，上升的速度比对应的外围郊区地带快得多。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">但邻里社区的规模会稍微复杂一些。除非十分小心地缓和与管理，城市化给当地环境带来的后果事实上可能负面多于正面。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通影响的地形</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">举个例子，比较下面两张彩色编码的费城地图。右边的显示交通带来的人均温室效应气体排放量。地图上的绿色区域代表人均排放量最低的区域，它们都集中在费城的市中心、近郊，以及分散在这个区域周围的城市中心。这和研究表明的结果一致，就是平均来说，住在较为中心和较为密集的地带的人们，比起住在相对郊区的人们来说（地图上以红色表示），并不爱开车去很远的地方，也不那么常开车。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuJe3SASHs7TEaToibB00zDj9ufxah7uBiaicuSH1pbezHvG8f9ZYE2YyyQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.415625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图五、费城交通人均温室气体排放量</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">如果你是一个力求减少交通增长，以及减少它带来的碳排放的规划师，你就会想要将增长尽可能地集中在绿色的区域，也就是个人平均影响较低的地区。你还会想要改进黄色和红色的区域，采用减少蔓延式扩张，增加步行可达性和密集程度的发展方式，那么随着时间发展它们就会发展得更好。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">不过让我们也来看看左边的地图。这张地图没有显示每家每户的碳排放量，不过却显示了每公顷地的碳排放量。在这张图里城市化程度高的地方反而是红色。这张地图告诉了我们那些交通造成环境影响最大、最密集的地方，尽管人均量很低，但其中有些地方却能带来更多的交通以及随之而来的尾气排放。如果你是一个邻里社区的居民，这个社区注定要朝着更加城市化、更密集的方向发展，而你又害怕这种提议的发展方式会带来更多的堵塞和污染，那么左边的地图就是在暗示你，这种担心不是毫无道理的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">水域中的相似问题</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">由发展带来的经流水污染问题也存在着相似的情形。尤其是降雨过程中地下水通过径流进入受纳水体的量随着流域中不透水地面面积（多为地面铺装和屋顶）的不同而有所不同。不透水面积越大，污染就越严重。这是因为不透水地面妨碍了水流逐渐渗入地表，没能让污染物在地面“流掉”，而是让它一路流到水体中去了。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">就像汽车交通一样，越高的发展密度使得人均不透水面积越低，而和地广人稀的郊区比起来地表径流量也就越低。这听起来有些违反常理，因为我们会认为面积广阔的郊区有更多的草地和森林区域，有着更多可渗透的地表面积。但那些个别地段多出来的可渗透面积并不能抵消掉蔓延式发展带来的郊区更长更宽的公路和更大面积的停车场。面临发展的方案，一个对环境问题有清醒认知的规划师考虑到水域健康，也许会鼓励密集型发展，而非蔓延式发展。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">不过，需要再次强调的是，图中的皱纹形状是密集地带，除非缓和了，否则它会倾向于增加当地每公顷地的不透水面积。这里有另外一组地图，这次是西雅图：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuCJxoQKeE8zGtHiaDa6SwVUxVzNeXevv6p5wAqibWoYSMxGHSSD93UFcQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.774" data-w="500"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图六、西雅图透水地图</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">注意人均的不透水面积在这片区域的边远蔓延地区是最高的，而每公顷的平均不透水面积在中心的、较密集化发展的区域是最高的。后者就是城市水道为什么比起农村污染较为严重的原因，也是为什么恢复我们国家的城市水道（以及总是超负荷的排水系统）健康这件事是如此的挑战重重。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">于是我们何去何从？</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">如果你在寻求简单的方法来解决这个困境——在我的书里称之为“精明增长的环境悖论”，你在这里是找不到答案的。一个规划师以及其他负责人在管理增长时可能面临的最棘手的挑战就是，在有时很合理而又相互矛盾的问题之间达成平衡。而迎接这个挑战又需要合作、共鸣、熟练以及创造性。我甚至可能会说，城市规划的专业之处就是寻找这种平衡。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">我们拥有可以使用的工具：关于汽车交通，我们可以通过越来越多的慢行交通系统的调和（例如步行、自行车设施以及良好的公交交通）来一步步缓解交通量的潜在增长以及随之而来的害处（包括噪音、堵塞和空气污染）。进来的研究表明，城市化地带产生的交通远远不及传统工程理论所说的那么坏，这让我觉得看到了希望。而我们也有可以效仿的模范：事实上，在我来自的地方阿林顿，弗吉尼亚州就十分成功地明显增加了汽车通道的密度，而且并没有如预言的那样使交通量明显增加。就更广泛的地区来说，华盛顿特区的整个都市区在2007到2015年之间人口增长了14%，而汽车交通量只增长了1%。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuMwLxlbwVk6DY4v30nNOlh289yVFkcbpNxvGUjtic0jBjRnb25FmtHOg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5452991452991452" data-w="585"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图七、慢行交通来调和交通矛盾</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">说到地表水污染，快速发展的绿色基础设施给了我极大的鼓舞。通过利用一些技术，比如有策略地设计的树木种植和景观、绿色屋顶、雨水花园、可渗透地面铺装、雨水桶，我们即便在高度城市化的场景中也能够收集雨水，并且让它渗透进地面，以免变成具有污染性的地表径流水，污染受纳水体。口袋公园和社区公园也是解决方式的一种。绿色基础设施最让我喜爱的一点就是，除了它给自然界带来的水质好处、给密集的城市社区增添了绿化之外，他们还同时被设计得更加可持续、更加令人喜爱。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">我认为节制也是解决方案的一部分。高强度的集约发展有它的地位，但就如我之前所写的那样，我喜欢可走行强的邻里社区，它们被保持在了一个适合人类的尺度规模。我相信，在合理的情况下让我们享受这两种世界最好的一面，这个想法是非常有希望的。我们不需要去复制曼哈顿或者香港那样的高密度来显示它在环保性方面的实质发展是优于郊区蔓延地带的。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">在这一点上，我觉得越来越多的建筑圈运动促进了城市化的小规模增量法，这非常给人希望。这个概念在于，美国的房地产开发充斥着大型的项目、大量的融资。而能够增强社区之间的联结但又不具太大压倒性的小规模增量法，已经越来越少了。思想领袖Dan Parolek和John Anderson在努力地改变这个状况，不动声色地建造了一个社区，一个由成功的小项目组成的国家级的产业组合，将他们的理念在全国的工作室传播开来。在全国的旧社区里，小型的填充物比如两三层楼的多户住宅常常和单户住宅并排建在一起。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">究根结底，解决这个矛盾的方法一定是情境式的，合适的城市密度匹配合适的城市设计特性，以及缓和合适的地区。这会要求我们具有非常强的思考能力和创造能力。让我们沿着城市化的道路继续向前吧，不过也让我们继续不断地完善它——只要我们做得到。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 20em; height: 3em; line-height: 3.2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7Czic8YAUXY3ZjibEtJvlUGGicS88JtGltEylGm85nsC4fWo7CcGoCFPO4WKgUs2Fee8TpibkJsd2GljHfLAPQ4APQ/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">则二、2030年城市扩张概率全球网格地图</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">原文/ Rafael Pereira    翻译/ 刘轶凡</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">Karen Seto以及她在耶鲁大学的团队最近将有关城市扩张可能性的全球网格的数据集开放使用了。这个数据集从空间上清晰地显示了全球土地覆盖率从2000到2030年之间以每分钟2.5公顷速度变化概率的预测(http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030)。这也是他们在PNSA论文<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献2，请联系我们索取）</strong></span>里使用的数据集。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWudtH5WdicMJzYjAarauBx3ARLbXjcapIHM3mfUibK2Y4qH9qQhqLC6uRg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.7734375" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图八、2030年城市扩张概率全球网格地图</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2030年城市扩张概率全球网格地图</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">目的：</strong>评估到2030年未来有可能发生城市扩张的区域</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">概要：</strong>2030年城市扩张概率的全球网格从空间上清晰地显示了全球土地覆盖率从2000到2030年之间以每分钟2.5公顷速度变化概率的预测。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">从2000年起每个非城市区域的网格单元，都会通过蒙特卡洛模型为它们指定一个2030年转变为城市的概率。</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">作者们最初从美国航天局的土地覆盖类型产品第五版中提取了2000年城市化程度的大约值，这提供了一个全球城市土地覆盖的保守估计值。然后作者们利用了从全球农村城市地图项目第一版（GRUMPv1）中得到的污染密度，制造了污染密度驾驶用地图。基于目前的地区城市人口密度的经验分布以及2030年预计地区人口和GDP值的概率密度函数，他们在蒙特卡洛模型中估计了到2030年每一个国家新城市土地的面积。为了帮助它与其他的数据产品更好地整合，国际地球科学信息网重新设计了数据，从古蒂投影变为了地理WGS84投影。访问：</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;">http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030</section><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); display: inline-block; width: 100%; border-right-color: rgb(6, 139, 125); border-bottom-color: rgb(6, 139, 125); border-left-color: rgb(6, 139, 125); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; min-width: 6em; height: 3em; text-align: center; border-radius: 0px 0px 3em 3em; border-right: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); border-left: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); border-top: none rgb(6, 139, 125); padding: 0px 0.3em 0.3em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 100%; line-height: 1.3em; border-radius: 0px 0px 3em 3em; color: white; font-size: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(6, 139, 125);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">秋</section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; font-size: 20.8px; padding: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">天的童话</section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们为本文提供的免费下载资料有：</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.《我们共同的未来 – 布兰特报告》</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuzzx027Y8XibUkfgO85Lcm4qQ9SlHbpp6avNu6IDTpxUqnLjia1swzHNA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.321904761904762" data-w="525"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuUbvH0V2TNibONYSp1PjuIhicZNUu1dbvffc4SjmiadHtuFBoPXXazuoMQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3258426966292134" data-w="534"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.《有关2030年城市扩张对生活多样性与碳库的影响全球评估》</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuVgaqHCk5D8ic0HJJdfIpiaxCD6HjPTJWh9QdgPIkHTfNYnMGBcUfTo6Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3339449541284403" data-w="545"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; 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"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">如有需要请联系我们微信号@SustainableCity</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">或电邮daizongliu@qq.com </strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; font-size: 11.2px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); text-align: right; display: inline-block; width: 100%; border-right-color: rgb(6, 139, 125); border-bottom-color: rgb(6, 139, 125); border-left-color: rgb(6, 139, 125); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; font-size: 16.8px; padding-right: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">后会</section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; min-width: 6em; height: 3em; text-align: center; border-radius: 0px 0px 3em 3em; border-right: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); border-left: 2px solid rgb(6, 139, 125); border-top: none rgb(6, 139, 125); padding: 0px 0.3em 0.3em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 100%; height: 100%; border-radius: 0px 0px 3em 3em; color: white; font-size: 16.8px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(6, 139, 125);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">有期</section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuS13zibRCLlzy5SE2ZiaApJmFCtmicUpJib63OLhBltHVU85lnsGvKonbZw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.484375" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/InLlteaKYOicTAlNnHmmVatLE4RVEZYRof8icq6MdpyzXNUXTEoRiaEibAtU3qyKgaFakbIOAs2UKpy0Vhl3S5107Q/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.3125" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: -30px 0% 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(237, 149, 22); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">▼点击阅读原文购买2015半年刊</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 2.2em; height: 2.2em; border: 0.12em solid rgb(225, 224, 224); border-radius: 50%; margin: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; box-shadow: rgb(194, 190, 190) 0px 0.2em 0.2em; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="width: 100%; margin-top: -1.7em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.2em; height: 1.2em; margin: -0.5em auto; border: 0.1em solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 0.45098); border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);"></section></section><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(45deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(45deg); -moz-transform: rotate(45deg); -o-transform: rotate(45deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.5em; height: 2.5em; border-left: 0.1em solid rgb(204, 204, 204); border-top: 0.1em solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0.3em auto; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section class="" style="margin-top: -2.9em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 3.5em; 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"><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; width: 70%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9ibUBNToDqFAEV9DNE0nhWuicnven9COOXtMgsic4v968A8amsWicTAFyxbweDYwan4uB6v2ydn4iaOIQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.91875" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">「 欢迎投稿 」</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">我们作为专业志愿者团体，秉承理想，帮助中国可持续发展。并为之贡献：理念与传播、培训与教育、实践与孵化。欢迎您加入我们一起并肩前行！</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">2014-2016 ? 转载请注明：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  />源自公众号“一览众山小-可持续城市与交通”</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; 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