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<section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 4em; height: 4em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url(http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0mgbBc5CwFv55kYCI48efticcZOuu3MFamsDBo0mS0RqqkWjlCNzWbRbhHq01LZ05RLvoD0r97EeP8A/0?wx_fmt=png); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0mgbBc5CwFv55kYCI48efticcZOuu3MFamsDBo0mS0RqqkWjlCNzWbRbhHq01LZ05RLvoD0r97EeP8A/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.9375" data-w="64"  /></section></section><section style="width: 100%; margin-left: 1.2em; margin-top: -1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left; white-space: nowrap; overflow: hidden; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; height: 2em; margin-left: 1em; border-bottom-left-radius: 1em; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(34, 127, 56); border-bottom-color: rgb(34, 127, 56); max-width: 85% !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-left: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5; padding-right: 0.5em; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">点击蓝字快速关注规划师杂志</section></section></section><section style="float: left; width: 5%; margin-left: -1px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; margin-top: 1.82em; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(39, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">当前，国家大力推进空间规划改革，城市开发边界已成为规划研究和实践探索的热点问题。城市开发边界实质上已<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">演化成为国家空间规划改革的一个组成部分，是避免城市发展无序蔓延、避免空间开发与保护失衡的政策工具。作者国家发改委城市和小城镇改革发展中心发展所所长许景权在《规划师》2016年第6期撰文，文章在客观把</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">握当前空间规划改革的目标与方向的前提下，充分结合我国“多规合一”与城市开发边界划定试点的探索成果，从我国国情出发，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">合理借鉴国外城市开发边界的相关实践经验，对我国城市开发边界的刚性与弹性机制、合理规模确定方法、评估与调整机制等</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">展开探讨，提出我国城市开发边界划定与管控的方向和路径。</span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding: 0.6em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: dotted; border-left-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); border-radius: 5px; font-size: 18px; padding: 0px 5px; color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 86% !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界的起源与作用</strong></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-style: dotted; border-right-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(39, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界起源于霍华德的田园<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">城市理论。霍华德认为，“城市环境的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">恶化由城市膨胀引起，城市无限扩展和</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">土地投机是引起城市灾难与相关弊病的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">根源；而田园城市是为健康、生活以及</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">产业而设计的城市，它的规模足以提供</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">丰富的社会生活，但不应超过合理的程</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">度；田园城市四周要有永久性农业地带</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">围绕，农业用地是保留的绿带，永远不</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">得改作他用”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。显然，霍华德设想的田</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">园城市是有适宜规模的，而城市规模需</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">通过城市外围的绿带进行限制，这种绿</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">带就是针对城市开发边界的最早设想。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">此后，1944年的“大伦敦规划”通过在</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">城市外围划定绿带环，以限制城市无序</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">扩张</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。20世纪60年代以来，美国面</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">对城市蔓延带来的系列问题，先后出现</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">了增长管理、精明增长等理论思潮，并</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">进行了城市增长管理和土地利用管制政</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">策改革的实证探索。城市增长边界便是</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">在这种背景下，在美国塞勒姆市被首次</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">提出，通过划定城市与农村地区之间的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">界线，以限制城市地区的增长</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界引入我国后被赋予了<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">本土化的作用和意义，即在“规划区” </span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">“三区四线”“生态底线”等各种现有</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">空间规划及管控工具“打架”或“失效”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的情况下，通过这个新工具来帮助实现控</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">制城市蔓延、避免耕地损失等基本诉求。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">因此，就技术角度而言，城市开发边界的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">确定就是要通过数字模型“正向”模拟</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">推导城市增长态势，圈定各类保护资源范</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">围以“反向”倒绘城市建设区域等方法，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">为城市划定出既留有未来空间发展余地，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">又能够合理约束城市无节制增长与肆意</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">占地的合理边界线</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。然而，倘若离开了</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">对国家空间规划改革趋势的整体回应，技</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">术视角下的城市开发边界划定探索，很可</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">能只是导致了又一个“无效”的城市管控</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">边界线在图面上的诞生—这也正是本</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">文试图从空间规划改革视角切入探讨城</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">市开发边界的缘由所在。</span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding: 0.6em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: dotted; border-left-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); border-radius: 5px; font-size: 18px; padding: 0px 5px; color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 86% !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国空间规划改革的目标与方向</strong></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-style: dotted; border-right-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(39, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">将城市开发边界议题放在空间规划<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">改革的背景下加以审视之前，要准确把</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">握当前我国空间规划改革的基本动态与</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">方向。2013年以来，国家层面密集出台</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">了一系列推动空间规划改革的政策，这</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">在我国的空间规划领域是从未有过的。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">2013年11月，中共十八届三中全会通</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">过的《关于全面深化改革若干重大问题</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的决定》提出“全面深化改革的总目标</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">是完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">建立空间规划体系，划定生产、生活、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">生态空间开发管制界限，落实用途管制”。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">2014年8月，国家发改委、国土部、环</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">保部与住建部联合下发的《关于开展市</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">县“多规合一”试点工作的通知》要求“探</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">索完善市县空间规划体系，建立相关规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划衔接协调机制。开展市县空间规划改</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革试点，推动经济社会发展规划、城乡</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划、土地利用规划、生态环境保护规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划‘多规合一’，形成一个市县一本规划、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">一张蓝图”。2015 年 5 月，中共中央、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">国务院印发的《关于加快推进生态文明</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">建设的意见》提出“要坚定不移地实施</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">主体功能区战略，健全空间规划体系，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">科学合理布局和整治生产空间、生活空</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">间、生态空间”。2015 年 10 月，中共</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">中央、国务院印发的《生态文明体制改</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革总体方案》要求“推进生态文明领域</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。整合</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">目前各部门分头编制的各类空间性规划，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">编制统一的空间规划，实现规划全覆盖”。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">中央城市工作会议(2015年12月)指出</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">“以主体功能区规划为基础统筹各类空</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">间性规划，推进‘多规合一’”。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">在国家意志的推动下，空间规划改<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革从市县层面扩展到省级层面。继国家</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">发改委等四部委于2014年8月在《关</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">于开展市县“多规合一”试点工作的通</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">知》中确定了浙江省开化县等28个市县</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">为“多规合一”试点后，甘肃、江西与</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">安徽等省份也相继自发开展了省级市县</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">“多规合一”试点工作。2015年6月，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">中央全面深化改革领导小组第十三次会</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">议同意海南省就统筹经济社会发展规划、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">城乡规划、土地利用规划等开展省域“多</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规合一”改革试点工作。2016年3月，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">国家发改委会同国家测绘地信局分别与</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">广西、浙江、贵州三省签署合作协议，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">建立省级空间性规划“多规合一”试点</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">合作机制。2016年4月，中央全面深化</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">改革领导小组第二十三次会议同意宁夏</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">开展空间规划 ( 多规合一 ) 试点工作。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">总结起来，从国家生态文明体制改</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革的总体目标看，空间规划改革领域的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">重点任务是到2020年构建以空间治理</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">和空间结构优化为主要内容，全国统一、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">相互衔接、分级管理的空间规划体系，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">着力解决空间性规划重叠冲突、部门职</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">责交叉重复、地方规划朝令夕改等问题。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">由此可见，对城市开发边界的一系列探</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">讨，应该放在未来空间规划体系构建、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">提升政府现代治理能力的框架内讨论才</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">有意义。</span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding: 0.6em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: dotted; border-left-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); border-radius: 5px; font-size: 18px; padding: 0px 5px; color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 86% !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">空间规划改革视角下对城市开发</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">边界的再认识</strong></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-style: dotted; border-right-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border-bottom-left-radius: 1.6em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1.6em; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">体系重构：市县层面将走向“1+X”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的空间规划体系</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(39, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">规划“打架”在很大程度上源于空<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">间规划体系的缺陷，目前我国空间规划</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">体系总体上是庞杂不清、效能低下的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">从纵向上看我国的空间规划体系，主体</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">功能区规划、城乡规划、土地利用规划</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">与环境保护规划都是自成体系的，有的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">还相当系统与完善。但是，由于缺乏有</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">效的横向衔接协调机制，各类规划之间</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的横向衔接常常出现问题，比较突出的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">是住建部门的城市总体规划与国土部门</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的土地利用总体规划，在城市建设用地</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的规模和布局上常出现很多差异与矛盾，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">导致地方政府项目落地难，在一定程度</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">上阻碍了经济社会的发展。规划内容的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">交叉矛盾背后是部门的职能交叉重叠，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">且被相关法律法规明确。例如，住建部</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">门和国土部门同时依法依规对城市建设</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">用地的规模与布局具有决定权，虽然《城</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">乡规划法》和《土地管理法》都要求与</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">对方相衔接，但现实情况是二者常常缺</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">乏有效衔接，这也成为规划“打架”的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">机制与体制根源之一 ( 图 1)。</span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0miaFlvxaVDk4iab7FSVe6CKLx8XQJXDiaXbianEd6rnFHVJkjPPic6oarQjroSKC0PGFDXzibhotkJGrakQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.7509363295880149" data-w="534"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(39, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">建立在平行衔接基础上的现行空间<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划体系表现令人失望，必须要进行改</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革。中央很明确地指出了市县空间规划</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">改革的重要目标是实现“一个市县一本</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划、一张蓝图”，但对于“一本规划”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的理解和认识，在“多规合一”试点改</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革中出现了很多分歧与争论，基本上可</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">以分为两类：一种是“多规加一”；另</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">一种是“多规合一”。所谓“多规加一”，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">就是在现有的各类规划之上再加上一个</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">新的统领性规划，统领市县各类空间性</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划，现有的城市总体规划、土地利用</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">总体规划等分别进行精简“瘦身”，与</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">这个新的统领性规划共同组成新的市县</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">空间规划体系。这种做法不但导致规划</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">数量越来越多，而且难以从根本上解决</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">各类规划内容交叉重叠和矛盾冲突等规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划“打架”问题，是不可取的。所谓“多</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规合一”，就是以主体功能区规划为基础，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">将市县城市总体规划、土地利用总体规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划与城市环境保护总体规划等总体规划</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">整合为“一本规划”，市县今后在总体</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">层面将只有一本规划，作为龙头规划统</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">筹全局、统领多规，向下直接衔接各类</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">实施性规划或专项规划，如控制性详细</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划、乡镇土地利用规划等，构建“1+X”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的空间规划体系(图2)。特别指出的是，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">“一本规划”并不是对现有多个总体规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划的简单拼盘，成为“一个超级完整的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">大规划”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">，而是突出规划的核心内容、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">有取有舍的整合，“一本规划”的内容</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">既不能过多、过细、过深，也不能过于</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">宏观与宽泛。</span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0miaFlvxaVDk4iab7FSVe6CKLxibyJ8dEx7kb24iaCppSNC7FpJ0F9UrkXTSBhsrspweAtF12mxkWyunPQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.8321428571428572" data-w="280"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border-bottom-left-radius: 1.6em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1.6em; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">空间规划体系重构后的城市开发</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">边界划定</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(39, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">目前我国的城市开发边界事实上同<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">时存在于城乡规划和土地利用规划中。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">2006年实施的《城市规划编制办法》</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">中的空间增长边界是最早的中国版城市</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">开发边界，但并没有被纳入城市总体规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划的强制性内容中。由于《城市规划编</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">制办法》对空间增长边界与城市建设用</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">地之间的关系表述并不明确、细致，这</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">就导致空间增长边界在城市总体规划中</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">处于一种相对尴尬的境地：规划编制人</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">员对空间增长边界的规模、范围与作用</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的认识往往差异很大，甚至在很多城市</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">总体规划成果中根本找不到空间增长边</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">界；规划管理人员由于缺乏相应管理依</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">据，也无法按照空间增长边界去进行规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划管理。国土部门则要求“按照土地利</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">用总体规划确定的城乡建设用地面积指</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">标，划定城、镇、村、工矿建设用地边</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">界……为适应城乡建设发展的不确定性，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">在城乡建设用地规模边界之外划定城、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">镇、村、工矿建设规划期内可选择布局</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的范围边界。扩展边界与规模边界可以</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">重合”。从编制意图看，土地利用总体</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划中的扩展边界与规模边界非常接近</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">于国外城市开发边界的作用。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界将在空间规划体系重<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">构后的“一本规划”中划定。城市开发</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">边界将来应该在哪个规划中划定，这是</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">一个无法回避的现实问题。构建“1+X”</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的市县空间规划体系，整合形成“1”(即</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">市县空间规划)后，现行的市县城市总</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">体规划、土地利用总体规划将退出历史</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">舞台，原本在城市总体规划、土地利用</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">总体规划中被重复划定的城市开发边界，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">将在市县空间规划中直接划定。作为市</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">县空间规划的重要组成部分，城镇、农</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">业与生态三类空间以及城市开发边界、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">生态保护红线、永久基本农田红线是作</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">为“一张蓝图”的核心内容被同时划定的，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界并不是独立划定、独立管</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">理的，与三类空间、生态保护红线与永</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">久基本农田红线之间有着明确的空间边</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">界和逻辑关系界定 ( 图 3)。</span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0miaFlvxaVDk4iab7FSVe6CKLxLpgnr2t8sV4chg4W7SuAsmF5nHg2TtPC1Q3BdCEmV3DEaFYScnspag/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.6522988505747126" data-w="348"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border-bottom-left-radius: 1.6em; border-bottom-right-radius: 1.6em; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">提升政府现代治理能力，城市</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">开发边界应体现规划弹性</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(49, 37, 3); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从尊重城市发展规律的角度看，空<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">间规划必须面对空间发展的不确定性问</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">题。空间规划是对未来若干年内空间开</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">发与保护内容的统筹安排，空间保护内</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">容一般较为确定，而空间开发行为则受</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">到不同时期很多因素的影响，往往具有</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">较强的不确定性，这是普遍规律。从规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划建设实践看，人们一直以来过于强调</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划的刚性，对规划的频繁修编和调整</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">批评很多，却常常忽视了规划本身对空</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">间开发不确定性的弹性应对能力非常低</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">下这一事实。传统规划认为，未来的不</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">确定性由过去的逻辑规律自然发展而成，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">因此建立在模型预测(即将过去的规律</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">外推以预测未来的发展状况)基础上的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">理性规划成为规划领域处理不确定性的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">主要方法。从普遍的认知领域到城市规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划的编制与实施，都证明了基于确定性</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的规划预测存在“测不准”的情况</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">尽管人们在空间发展存在不确定性<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的问题上基本形成共识，但对于城市开</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">发边界是否应该被赋予规划弹性的认识</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">上，仍然存在争议：一种观点是“弹性</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">无用论”，认为即便将规划弹性赋予城</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">市开发边界，也无非是在城市总体规划</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">所确定的城市建设用地范围外画了个更</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">大的圈，如果不能解决政府违法这一根</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">本性问题，画再大的圈也是徒劳的；另</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">一种观点则认为，城市开发边界应该具</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">备规划弹性，以解决城市发展中实际存</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">在的不确定性问题。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从空间规划改革的视角看，做好规<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划、管好规划是提升政府现代治理能力</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的重要体现。问题随之而来，什么样的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划才是好的规划？各级政府怎么管规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">划才算是管得好？在从计划经济向市场</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">经济转变的过程中，我国的规划编制与</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">管理仍然存留着一些带有明显计划经济</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">色彩的手段，试图用一张用地规划图准</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">确预测和安排未来20年规划建设的做法</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">在市场经济条件下是难以想象的，“铁</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">板神算”式的规划注定不是好的规划。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">上级政府如果对下级政府的规划管得太</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">多太深，显然是在空间规划事权的划分</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">上出了问题，而现实中城市总体规划编</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">制审批周期过长、规划调整过于频繁等</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">问题的存在，恰恰是这一症结的表现，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">上级政府往往抓了不该抓的权、管了不</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">该管的事。因此，应结合空间规划体系</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">的改革，重新划分各级政府的规划事权，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">重新界定各类规划的编制与审批，简政</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">放权，通过规划改革释放红利。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">广西贺州是国家28个“多规合一”<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">试点市县之一，其“多规合一”改革方</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">案提出了“规模刚性、布局弹性”的改</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">革思路，即在确保规划城市建设用地总</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规模不变的前提下，允许贺州市政府在</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">必要情况下自行按程序对规划布局进行</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">弹性调整(规划调整权由省级政府下放)，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划期内总调整幅度不超过总城市建设</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">用地规模的15％，且调整后的城市建设</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">用地必须在城市开发边界以内，同时要</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">满足不得占用永久基本农田与突破生态</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">保护红线、不得自行调整城市主要发展</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">方向和空间结构、不得随意调整重要民</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">生与公共服务设施、一般不得进行“蛙</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">跳式”布局等规定。</span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding: 0.6em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: dotted; border-left-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; border: 2px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); border-radius: 5px; font-size: 18px; padding: 0px 5px; color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 86% !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界的规模、范围</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">与管控<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">机制</span></strong></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; margin-bottom: -0.6em; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-style: dotted; border-right-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(193, 193, 193); box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(34, 127, 56); padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; border-color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.5em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.科学确定城市开发边界的规模与</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">范围</section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(49, 37, 3); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界的规模确定，应建立<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">在合理预测城市建设用地规模、合理确</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">定规划弹性调整幅度的基础上。城市开</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">发边界是在城市建设用地外围划定的一</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">组或多组封闭边界，城市开发边界与城</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">市建设用地之间的地域是将来进行弹性布</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">局调整的备用地，因此城市建设用地规模、</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">制度规定的弹性布局调整幅度、土地适宜</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">性等因素直接决定了城市开发边界的规</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">模。波特兰城市开发边界的划定主要分为</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">四步，分别为人口与就业增长的预测、将</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">人口规模转化为用地需求、土地适宜性评</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">价和城市空间拓展方向判断、把城市开发</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">边界落实到空间上</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">。波特兰通过预测未</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">来人口所需的住房与就业岗位，进而测算</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">居住用地、产业用地、公益和半公益用地</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">等需求，再加上总用地规模25％的用地，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">作为城市增长边界的规模 ( 图 4)。</span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0miaFlvxaVDk4iab7FSVe6CKLxDeFNvxGGY24Fwib0nPqnMG9KSaa5f9ZCZNtjL0oJCGcl240WLeWrmOQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.5655430711610487" data-w="534"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(49, 37, 3); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">我国传统的规划预测方法较多强调<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">以人定地，即一般在人口预测的基础上，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">按照规划人均城市建设用地水平，确定</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">城市建设用地规模。这种以人定地的方</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">法不仅便于理解与实际操作，还体现了</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">以人为本和强调土地集约节约利用的理</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">念，但在实际的规划编制管理中，逐渐</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">出现了一些问题，如某些地方政府在土</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">地财政的驱动下，追求超过实际需求的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">城市建设用地规模，为了达到目的，通</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">过现状数据掺水、拔高规划城镇化水平</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">等方式夸大规划人口与用地规模预测结</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">果，损害了规划的科学性与权威性。此</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">外，国内传统规划方法对产业发展用地</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">需求的判断过于粗放(波特兰的产业用</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">地需求是在就业人口预测的基础上，根</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">据从事各类产业的劳动力与土地的对应</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">关系进行测算)、对城镇现状建成区在</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规划期内可挖掘的空间潜力普遍缺乏深</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">入研究，因此有必要对目前这种强调以</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">人定地的方法进行优化。贺州市在“多</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规合一”试点过程中，在国内现行预测</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">方法的基础上进行了优化，提出了以产</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">定地与以人定地相结合的开发强度测算</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">方法 ( 图 5)。</span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0miaFlvxaVDk4iab7FSVe6CKLx7tcXFvAU8yGkUcCkd8w7HdicXdJbG9fdmYnh2SaB3tHX4aa4rKthMSA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1.0797413793103448" data-w="464"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(49, 37, 3); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">在城市开发边界的规划弹性调整幅<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">度的确定方面，可以借鉴波特兰城市的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">经验。波特兰在城市开发边界规模的确</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">定过程中，为了应对市场因素的不确定</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">性，增加了总用地的25％作为预留空</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">间，以规划弹性来应对发展的不确定性。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">从我国的国情出发，结合城乡规划、土</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">地利用规划在修编、调整与实施中的实</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">际情况，建议以城市建设用地总面积的</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">15％作为弹性预留空间。贺州按照“多</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">规合一”试点工作要求，结合自身空间</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">开发与保护的要求，为全市两区三县所</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">有城镇统一划定了城市开发边界(图6)。</span></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0miaFlvxaVDk4iab7FSVe6CKLxadMsbEvgdQibSwKiaibOOUxB39d9ZUFYv64as3jphUqdYjlep6WcXgbCQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1.0204918032786885" data-w="488"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; border-color: rgb(34, 127, 56); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.5em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">建立动态评估与调整机制，合理</span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">管控城市开发边界</strong></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(49, 37, 3); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">城市开发边界的法定地位需要通过<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">相关法律法规的修改方能确立。城市开</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">发边界一经划定，不得随意修改。波特</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">兰通过“微调、主要调整、立法修正”3</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">种模式对其城市开发边界进行修正</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">，</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">较好地平衡了各方利益诉求、适应了发</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">展过程中的调整需求。建议我国城市开</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">发边界以5年为周期进行评估(与经济</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">和社会发展规划同步)，确实需要进行微</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">调或较大调整的，将评估成果作为市县</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">空间规划实施评估报告的一部分，报上</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">一级人民政府审批。在5年期内，因不</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">可预期的重大事件对城市开发边界产生</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">调整要求的，可进行专项评估并提出调</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">整方案，报上一级人民政府审批。</span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="padding: 0px 1.5em; margin-bottom: -35px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 10px; width: 100%; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》2016年6期</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;"></span>空间规划改革视角下的城市开发边界研究： 弹性、规模与机制》</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="height: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section><section class="" style="height: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section><section class="" style="height: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section><section class="" style="height: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section><section class="" style="height: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section><section class="" style="height: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(34, 127, 56);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0mgbBc5CwFv55kYCI48efticckK7MFiaNNUbF7HGiangT7v0aQR0JOEcDmicsBCGiaNeehtwPEgGsicJKr7w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.8651079136690647" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/j8bTq15u0mgbBc5CwFv55kYCI48efticck3Q0FWMatBNxmXJgoAFQ35yKmJK4ibicHoYPmDfl5ibM2iblpiahqKzZeTQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.8507194244604317" data-w=""  /></section></section></section>
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