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                        <p style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal;"><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8Gtr4AvVdicQ9ib8fKDWPlo4KT6qyLpqicqwfJz4SomAQHMOLiaqxnpxZKmiaA.jpg" /><br  /></p><section style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 15px; margin-bottom: 15px; transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 83.3906px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 3px 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(160, 160, 160); line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">导</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">读</section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 472.594px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify; color: rgb(97, 182, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">乡城人口迁移是推动人口城镇化发展的重要途径之一，制度政策因素对其产生重要影响。本文根据城乡人口迁移状态将我国城乡关系演变历程划分为“二元”分割城乡关系的形成、“二元”分割城乡关系的松动、“浮动”的城乡关系，最后针对向“和谐”城乡关系转型的实践需求，从观念创新、制度创新、技术创新三方面提出相应建议。</section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);"></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">文/王伟，中央财经大学政府管理学院城市管理系 副教授</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br  /></span></strong></span></p><p>上一期内容<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4OTMyNzIzOA==&mid=2650759568&idx=2&sn=e5044e369ec91a734e5987b12c0fc9ce&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data_ue_src="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4OTMyNzIzOA==&mid=2650759568&idx=2&sn=e5044e369ec91a734e5987b12c0fc9ce&scene=21#wechat_redirect">基于制度分析的我国人口城镇化演变与城乡关系转型（上）</a>，主要介绍人口迁移与城镇化、城乡人口迁移系统分析和城乡户籍制度梳理分析。<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><span style="line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">本期内容分享中篇，主要介绍</span><span style="line-height: 1.6; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">城乡人口迁移系统分析，包括城市和农村发展政策分析、 制度成因分析等。</span></span></p><p><br  /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; border-radius: 100%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; font-size: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px; margin-top: -2.3em; margin-bottom: 0.8em; margin-left: 2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(70, 127, 156);"><section class="" style="padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 20px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市发展政策梳理分析</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>（1）我国市镇建制与城乡划分标准梳理分析</strong></span></p><p><br  /></p><p>由于城镇的实体地域范围是在不断变化的，对其范围内的人口进行统计缺乏可操作性，因此我国城镇人口统计主要依托城镇行政建制和户籍统计。所以城镇设置、城镇地域范围的变化直接影响城镇人口的统计数量。而通过对我国建国后城镇建制以及城乡划分标准的梳理，发现问题不在中国城镇人口的规定标准原则的选定上，而在这些原则下具体标准的划分上，这也就带来不同时期人为抬高或降低标准使城市人口涨落起伏很大的现象，主要表现为城市数量的不稳定，市区人口/总人口与非农人口/总人口两种计算口径下人口城镇化水平的差别及各自剧烈的波动变化，见图4与图5。</p><p><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtLU2qEltPcxibveuHlPAqMaUf8RyibhLDpSzB1icgQlb3y4z20LHcSK6bA.png" /><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178); font-size: 14px;">图4  1949-20015我国历年城市数量变化统计，数据来源：《新中国城市50年》、1999-2015各年中国城市统计年鉴</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtXuOKLukdNhGwp3iclYHfLqBClFYA17DianbWETwVKKscl7syRX4icCRdQ.png" /><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178); font-size: 14px;">图5  1949-2015市区人口/总人口与非农人口/总人口两种计算口径下的人口城镇化水平比较，数据来源：《新中国城市50年》、1999-2015各年中国城市统计年鉴、中国人口信息网http://www.cpirc.org.cn</span></p><p><br  /></p><p>其中两个关键年份值得我们注意，首先是1963年，<span style="color: rgb(61, 170, 214); text-decoration: underline;">1963年《中共中央、国务院关于调整市镇建制、缩小城市郊区的指示》</span>要求：“<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">严格掌握10万人口指标从严设市。强调市的郊区应尽量缩小，市总人口中农业人口比重一般不应超过20%。</span>将设镇的人口下限提高到3000人，其中非农业人口占70%以上或者聚居人口在2500人以上但不足3000人，其中非农业人口占85%以上的地区，可以设置镇的建制。”<span style="line-height: 1.6;">相对于1955年标准，设置门槛被提高，使得1963年以前我国非农业人口大于城镇人口，而从1963年起，非农业人口就小于城镇人口。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p>其次是<span style="text-decoration: underline; color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">1984年</span>，1984年以前，我国设立市镇采用的是“切块”方式，也就是将县城内经济最发达的地域与原管辖的乡镇分离，单独设立市、镇的设置也大抵如此。统计上可以根据建制市和镇的直接辖区的行政界限确定城乡。<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">1984年之后，我国设立市和镇的方式变成了“整乡设镇”和“整县设市”。</span>这两种方式的明显区别就是，后一种方式所确立的市镇地域中包含了大量的农村地区，无法根据市镇直接辖区的行政界线划分城乡。</p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>表3 建国后我国市镇建制与城乡人口划分标准梳理</strong></span></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8Gt9ypmLusRiaFXCJHGoTBvzMiaNFpJ8AQtIPr21H8BibTVsnExLnkBIjg9Q.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>（2）我国城镇发展方针、政策梳理分析</strong></span></p><p><br  /></p><p>城镇发展方针、政策可以理解为指引城市发展的方向和目标，对农业人口转化、城镇规模的控制、发展方向有着极其重要的影响。建国后，国家在制定和实施城市发展方针方面，城市建设方针曾经大致经历了五个阶段：</p><p><br  /></p><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1949－1952，建国初期“<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">变消费型城市为生产型城市</span>”；</section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1953－1978，我国开始大规模的工业化建设，城市建设总方针是<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">围绕工业化有重点地新建、改建、扩建城市</span>；</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1979－1990，国家主要着手<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">弥补市政住宅“欠账”</span>，发挥城市的多功能性，加快第三产业建设；</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1991-2000，随着经济市场化和全球化的进程，特别是国家财税体制的改革，城市自主性的增加，为提高城市竞争力，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">城市企业化趋势明显</span>；</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">5</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2001-2011，国家十六大报告提出“<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">逐步提高城镇化水平，坚持大中小城市和小城镇协调发展，走中国特色的城镇化道路</span>”，这是半个世纪以来我国城市发展和城镇化经验的科学总结，也是新形势下对我国城市发展的科学认识。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">6</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2012年以来，伴随新一届领导人执政，“新常态”、四个全面布局、五大发展理念（创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享）、供给侧改革、人民共创共治共享、生态文明建设成为时代核心理念，在此背景下2014年3月《国家新型城镇化规划2014-2020》出台提出走<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0); text-decoration: none;">以人为本、四化同步、优化布局、生态文明、文化传承</span>的中国特色新型城镇化道路，2015年末中央城市工作会议提出“一尊重五统筹”，即尊重城市发展规律，统筹空间、规模、产业三大结构，统筹规划、建设、管理三大环节，统筹改革、科技、文化三大动力，统筹生产、生活、生态三大布局，统筹政府、社会、市民三大主体。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><p><br  /></p><p>应该说，我国城市发展方针的确定和几次调整，客观上反映了我国城市发展的历程。但一个突出的问题就是，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">过多关注城市规模（以人口规模与用地规模为主），而忽略了城市的经济和社会发展问题</span>，图6中1949-2005年我国历年不同人口规模城市数量比例的变化就在很大程度上体现出城市方针对不同规模城市发展的影响。为此，北大周一星教授研究指出“规模政策”的片面性，跳出“规模政策”才有出路。2015年中央城市工作会议，提出的“一尊重五统筹”，是建国60多年来对我国城市建设发展的一次系统层面的理念更新与战略指引，如均能有效落实，将具有十分重要的历史意义。</p><p><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtjQZCQBfGwoH1F9Gyd4MXTLXv246kTAFhsn52ianiacTqAHvp4DMfYyAA.png" /><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178); font-size: 14px;">图6  1949-2005我国历年不同人口规模城市数量比例变化，数据来源：《新中国城市50年》、1999-2005各年中国城市统计年鉴</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>表4 建国后我国城市发展方针与政策梳理</strong></span></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtnNicvhyhibPY3CEyzwpyQNia7YmUia0MW4R1BRmmchFTibbf0MlP32HEXPA.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; border-radius: 100%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; font-size: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px; margin-top: -2.3em; margin-bottom: 0.8em; margin-left: 2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(70, 127, 156);"><section class="" style="padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 20px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">农村发展政策分析</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p>1978年以前，粮食对人口流动政策的导向起了重要的制约作用。为了有效地实施统购统销政策，增加农业产量以及支持工业化运动，政府于<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">1957年推行了农村合作化制度。</span>70年代末至80年代初，我国进行农村经济体制改革，中央在1982至1986年连续五年发布以农业、农村和农民为主题的一号文件，重点是解决了农村体制上的阻碍、推动了农村生产力大发展，进而为城市经济体制改革创造物质和思想动力，具有两个显著特点：一是<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">突出农村改革在于构建新的经济体制</span>；二是<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">突出解放和发展农村生产力，繁荣农村商品经济</span>。</p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>表5 1982-1986年关于农村发展的五个一号文件</strong></span></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtwAgnrPFPf6qAbMIbQnea8c70B2IGFpqa2PicN3EJ7JqOJ9WTD8GEhYg.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">农村家庭联产承包制度的建立是这个阶段最为核心的成果，这一制度对我国农村人口迁移的正向推动与负向障碍产生双重深远影响。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p>正向推动作用包括：</p><p><br  /></p><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">家庭联产承包责任制的实施，使农村出现了大批劳动力的剩余和劳动时间的剩余，加速了农业劳动力剩余的过程。</section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">家庭联产承包责任制，奠定了农业劳动力转移的制度基础和物质基础，强化了利益机制，促进了农业劳动力非农化的进程。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">家庭联产承包责任制从根本上解决了农产品短缺问题，当政府意识到农产品短缺的时代过去以后，政府开始放松对城乡迁移的控制，使农村劳动力转移自由度加大，选择性增强。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><p><br  /></p><p>负向障碍作用表现为：</p><p><br  /></p><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">农村现行土地经营制度是以按人口均分土地为基本特征的家庭联产承包责任制。土地既是制约劳动者离农的客观因素，又是兼业得以存在的前提。农业收入的降低，客观上形成了劳动者兼业转移现象，也使得兼业化的存在具有必然性和长期性。</section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">土地是农民最后的避难所，也是农民社会福利、生活保险的主要依托之一。农民从事非农产业既是一种创新，也将承担新的风险，而这种风险只有靠农民自己承担。亦农亦非农的兼业方式，能进能退，消除了转移的后顾之忧，增强了他们选择职业的积极性和灵活性。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><section style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="width: 95%; margin-left: 5%; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5em; margin-top: 1em; margin-bottom: -2em; margin-left: -0.75em; border: 1px solid rgb(88, 179, 224); border-radius: 100%; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; text-align: center; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); height: 1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"></section><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(88, 179, 224); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section style="clear: both; margin-top: -0.4em; margin-left: 1.6em; padding-bottom: 0.2em; font-size: 87.5%; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(70, 127, 156); box-sizing: border-box;" class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="box-sizing: border-box;">农民传统的对土地眷恋之情。由于农民世世代代以土地为生产资料和劳动对象，对土地有着根深蒂固的眷恋之强和复杂心理，恋土重迁。</section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both;"></section></section><p><br  /></p><p>进入新世纪，2004至2016年中央连续发布13份一号文件，一个鲜明主题：<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">缩小城乡差距，促进城乡经济社会一体化发展。</span>通过一系列“多予、少取、放活”的政策措施，使农民休养生息，重点强调农民增收，给农民平等权利，城市支持农村、工业反哺农业，中国农业和农村进入前所未有的发展新阶段，最直接的表现是农民人均收入进入较快增长期。然而政策释放的红利在城乡业已形成差距前，其拉力效应有限，农村社会中坚与青年活力人群向城镇流动的整体趋势并未明显改变，并逐渐从人口空心化演化为人口、土地、技术、产业、服务、文化和公共设施整体空心化，一些农村经济社会陷入整体性衰落与凋敝，尤其是经济相对落后地区的农村更甚。</p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>表6  2004-2016年关于农村发展的十三个一号文件</strong></span></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtsBgZaUlSFmSqGQt7xTN7eFruamVnjicPAsuFFg0ibnzpKMLk7a9f4ugA.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 1.5em; height: 1.5em; border-radius: 100%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; font-size: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px; margin-top: -2.3em; margin-bottom: 0.8em; margin-left: 2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(70, 127, 156);"><section class="" style="padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 20px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">制度成因分析</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p>城镇化说到底是城乡结构的变化，涉及城乡双方。而户籍政策、城市发展政策、农村发展政策，通过相互间的协同嵌套形成了严格限制乡城人口自由迁移流动的城乡政策制度框架。政府通过这一框架的掌握，对城乡人口迁移与非农业人口转移的数量进行控制，这就类似掌握了调控城乡人口迁移转变的阀门，可以根据社会经济发展需求进行调节。</p><p><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160609/raykBSCslW7fg1Hr6XpWoJvdbIvRz8GtNLNvDQQMhj0pKukWKXMag4PYozIeARc7ibGo6FJzRHn9oCRZO6h48Yg.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178); font-size: 14px;">制度的“阀门”效应</span></p><p><br  /></p><p>对照建国后我国户籍制度的更替和城镇化历程可发现：从一开始，我国的户籍制度就与城镇化进程紧密联系在一起，户籍制度“松”的时期城镇化就出现加速发展趋势，而户籍制度“紧”的时期城镇化就出现停滞甚至倒退趋势。而<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">建国后城镇发展政策演化及其对农业人口转化的影响</span>有一个显著的特征，就是<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">变化起伏大。</span>40多年来，政府城镇政策，都走过一条<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">鼓励—限制—鼓励—加速城镇发展</span>的路子，农业人口转移也相应经历了快速—缓慢—快速—加速发展等阶段。</p><p><br  /></p><p>那么是否存在更深层次的原因呢？从一般发展规律来看，城镇化是与工业化相联系的一种社会组织形态，它不仅是现代化大生产方式的要求，也是社会结构变迁的重要环节，工业部门的扩大会造成城市人口的上升，乡城人口流动成为城镇化的必然要求和伴生现象，这种情况在工业化的早期更为明显，因为工业的成长要靠增加劳动力来完成。因此，一国的工业化对该国人口城镇化具有导向作用和重要影响。</p><p><br  /></p><p>但是，在建国后的最初三十多年里，中国的人口迁移流动现实与经典的人口迁移流动模型存在巨大的反差，这主要体现在，一方面，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">城乡二元社会经济结构及其“势差”十分显著</span>，乡城人口流动的动机和潜在压力非常巨大；另一方面，以限制流动为目标的<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">城乡二元户籍制度辅之以农村人民公社制度、农产品统购统销制度及户口-就业-福利一体化制度</span>，形成了<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">严格限制乡城人口自由迁移的城乡政策体系</span>。</p><p><br  /></p><p>可以看一下我国建国后所采取的工业化策略，归纳特点，主要有如下两个方面：</p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">①高积累率及高增长率。</span>由于可用的外部资金有限，高积累率只有通过大力压缩国内消费来实现。而作为一个典型的农业国，我国建设资本密集型重工业所需的资本只能来源于农业剩余，当时政府通过工农业产品之间的“剪刀差”获取建设重工业所需的资金。与此同时，为了维持低工资的制度，政府又向居民提供住房、医疗、粮食、教育等大量补贴。由于财力有限，只能向有限的人口提供补贴。在这种情况下，只得限制农村人口进城以控制城市人口数量，从而减轻城市就业以及基本生活资料供应、住房、交通、公用事业等多方面的压力。</p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">②以重工业为主的产业政策</span>，重工业是资本技术密集型产业，对劳动力的吸收能力有限，因此在工业化的过程中无法使农村剩余劳动力实现产业转移，政府不得不采取行政措施使大量的农村剩余劳动力留在农村从事农业生产。</p><p><br  /></p><p>因此，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">城乡政策制度实质上成为建国时我国选择工业化发展战略和资金积累模式的基本框架的补充、延伸和安排</span>，严格控制城市人口增长（主要表现为控制乡村人口流入城市），降低人口城镇化“速度”与“成本”，使得我国城镇化进程在很大程度上受到抑制，也成为新时期乡城人口流动制度改革创新的背景。</p><p><br  /></p><p style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">……</span></p><p style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">未完待续，请继续关注下篇，根据城乡人口迁移状态将我国城乡关系演变历程划分为“二元”分割城乡关系的形成、“二元”分割城乡关系的松动，“浮动”的城乡关系，最后针对向“和谐”城乡关系转型的实践需求，从观念创新、制度创新、技术创新三方面提出相应建议。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>本内容来自作者投稿</strong></span></p><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 1em; line-height: 25.6px; text-align: inherit; white-space: normal; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); border-color: rgb(171, 87, 94); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="max-width: 100%; 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