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                        <section label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style="white-space: normal;"><blockquote style="padding: 20px 15px 15px 48px; border-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-color: rgb(124, 41, 18); border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; line-height: 1.5; background-image: url(http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcT8MIo5q800jfbFQmSA0iaqwG2EiaUQtDjdKhpTL6aiacNEd1RzGlGwCv5JmRibTr1D1XdXRnmmeTQaw/0?wx_fmt=png); background-position: 10px 11px; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">　　本文为中国城市规划设计研究院上海分院赵一新副院长在“2015年度CAUPD业务交流会”上做的报告，感谢作者悉心整理&授权发布。感谢会议主办单位总工室等部门提供的资源支持！</span></p></blockquote></section><p><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考一：航运中心功能向服务业转型</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;"></span></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border: none; display: inline-block; width: 100%;"><section style="font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -2px; float: left;"><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.7; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.5; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.3; font-family: 宋体;">></span></section><section class="yead_color" style="margin-left: 5px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); float: left;"><p style="color: inherit;"><span style="color: inherit;"><strong style="white-space: normal;">机遇：亚洲呼唤新型国际航运中心</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); line-height: 20px; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>1 新型国际航运中心并非以“量”取胜</strong></p></section><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">新型国际航运中心以航运高端服务的供给为特征；如</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">伦敦拥有15个全球政府间专门国际航运组织，20家顶尖保险公司在伦敦承接航运保险业务，全球海事纠纷首选的仲裁地，成为世界公认的国际航运中心。</span><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); line-height: 20px; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>2 亚洲航运中心面临转型发展的良好契机</strong></p></section><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">全球贸易格局转变，航运重心已转移至亚洲，而航运服务中心却远在伦敦、纽约，迫切需要能够提供全方位、高端航运服务的航运中心；香港、新加坡、上海等亚洲国际航运中心将迎来转型发展机遇。<br  /><br  /></span></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZseHlfhjBPjicBSN55UI6CIZGT5ZMibib7j11sL5IMucibZx81fSTQYJmJ1Q.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考二：航空枢纽“洲际化”程度提升</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border: none; display: inline-block; width: 100%;"><section style="font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -2px; float: left;"><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.7; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.5; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.3; font-family: 宋体;">></span></section><section class="yead_color" style="margin-left: 5px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); float: left;"><p style="color: inherit;"><strong><span style="color: inherit;">上海在全球范围内的支配能力日渐提升</span></strong></p></section></section></section><p>——<strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海在国际经济地位的提升，国际航空枢纽资源的重要性凸显</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">2011年外商直接投资超126亿美元，十年内翻四番；外商在上海累计设立跨国公司地区总部470家、投资性公司291家、研发中心375家；2013年，上海共举办国际会议614个，与会总人数达到仅20万人，其中海外与会者近40%；未来随自贸区发展以及金砖银行等国际组织的设立，国际化交往将更加密切。<br  /><br  /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>——上海将努力成为亚太的洲际枢纽</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">结合上海未来人口、经济的发展，以及历年航空客运量变化，预计大上海都市区航空客运需求未来将达到2.3亿人次；2014年上海航空国际客运比例为30%，未来上海国际客运比例预计达到40%；浦东机场将打造亚太地区最大国际航空中枢，浦东机场国际客运比例达到50%以上，基本与国际枢纽机场持平；大力提升洲际航线和中转客流比例。</span></p><p><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsIwgicBPW1CPt2mFUetRtSbphRUg96FVgXeQC9pIvRic5GFpZCyicdxHPw.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考三：公路和铁路融入全球陆路网络</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); line-height: 20px; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>1 新亚欧大陆桥横跨我国大陆，强化我国与亚欧国家经济联系</strong></p></section><p><strong><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">——通道条件优越，加强经济辐射</span></strong><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">地理位置和气候条件优越，运距短，运费省；<span style="line-height: 1.6;">东西两端连接两大经济中心，中间地带欠发达但资源丰富，经济上具有较强的相互依存性与优势互补性；</span></span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——国家和地区间高度重视，亚欧大陆桥合作交流频繁</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">中国和中亚五国的合作因大陆桥而奠定牢不可破的坚实基础；</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">中哈、中俄签署协议便利集装箱交换，两国互使量以30%速度递增；</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">中德俄三国签署合作备忘录，大力发展中德亚欧大陆桥通道；国际合作推动了大陆桥运量快速增长，自2004年起，经阿拉山口到多斯特克口岸的出境集装箱运量快速增长，2008 年尽管受到金融危机的影响，仍然较去年增长23.6%。</span></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); line-height: 20px; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>2 “一带一路”战略对上海交通提出新要求</strong></p></section><p><strong><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">——“一带一路”战略加速发展我国与亚欧国家关系</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">亚太地区经济的迅速增长越来越需要开拓欧洲市场，而欧盟为谋求发展也需要到亚太地区寻求贸易伙伴，选择投资对象，亚太与欧洲的双向辐射越来越明显。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——“一带一路”战略对上海提出新的要求</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">上海是“一带一路”的战略基点。<span style="line-height: 1.6;">要积极完善集疏运体系，努力构建达到世界先进水平的综合交通体系，大力发展江海联运、铁水、空铁、公水等多式联运，为长江经济带和内陆其他地区发展提供交通保障。</span></span></p><p><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsW2D3VC3vqLRRK2KtMFcP9GaHfsTDxRwriaZfSibOXFETZAaqtcPk5BGg.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考四：轨道交通引领区域空间重构</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border: none; display: inline-block; width: 100%;"><section style="font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -2px; float: left;"><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.7; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.5; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.3; font-family: 宋体;">></span></section><section class="yead_color" style="margin-left: 5px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); float: left;"><p style="color: inherit;"><strong><span style="color: inherit;">都市区空间重构开启上海郊区和近沪地区发展的新篇章</span></strong></p></section></section></section><p><strong><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">——人口和城市功能逐步向都市区疏解</span></strong></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">上海近沪地区和外围地区逐渐向长三角区域节点转变，承接特大城市功能的外围疏解，构建“反磁力核心”。</span><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">——上海都市区将形成不同特征的交通出行圈层</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">都市区通勤圈：集中于30~70km上海郊区和近沪地区，例如昆山与上海之间呈现出明显的通勤客流特征；<span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">都市圈高频商务圈：集中于70~150km都市区外围地区。</span></span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">——传统高速公路+铁路模式不满足需求</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">高速公路：以人民广场为起始点，1小时可达的最大范围基本仅能覆盖上海市域，同时将大量机动车引向城市中心；区域铁路：高铁、城际铁、普铁通道方向以及发车频率有限，适用于中远距离客货运输。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">——国外案例：都市圈不可或缺的市郊铁路系统</span></strong><br  /></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">主要服务于郊区-城市核心区间的通勤出行，将承担轨道总运量的70%以上。</span><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZs3zAN5JcQkyyWCnyDCmKyXGeFPTHr7z9OarUicleLmVknfCDynONuXsw.jpg" /><br  /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考五：TOD成为引导潜力地区空间发展重要模式</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border: none; display: inline-block; width: 100%;"><section style="font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -2px; float: left;"><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.7; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.5; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.3; font-family: 宋体;">></span></section><section class="yead_color" style="margin-left: 5px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); float: left;"><p style="color: inherit;"><span style="color: inherit;"><strong style="white-space: normal;">轨道交通引导潜力地区的建设</strong></span></p></section></section></section><p><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px;">? </span><strong style="line-height: 1.6;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">新城——引导站点地区开发</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">新城与中心城时空距离过长，加强轨道站点周边地区建设；轨道站点促进用地开发，加强空间结构的引导作用。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><blockquote class="main" style="padding: 15px; border-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-right-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-color: rgb(19, 14, 105);"><p style=""><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>案例：香港新市镇</strong></span></p><p style=""><span style="text-decoration: inherit; font-size: 14px;">轨道站点进行TOD开发，站点影响范围内用地均是混合的：20%左右公共服务，8%左右开放空间，集聚了50%以上的人口，也集聚了50%的就业。</span></p></blockquote></section><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px; font-family: 宋体;">? </span><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">近域地区——促进新中心的形成</span></strong><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">近域地区目前沿原有轴线快速、松散、低效蔓延；</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">轨道延伸实现与中心城之间的快速联系，轨道站点周边吸引大量居住；以九亭为例，由于缺乏设施，75.2%的居民前往徐家汇进行日常购物娱乐活动；加强设施布局与轨道交通的相关性：近域地区就业点与轨道的衔接和接驳。<br  /><br  /></span></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZskwSMfZsbnpibOOmQzyjEr8rm77HjQAWOgQqAQ2CAibq9kQJEzAQzwuibw.jpg" /><br  /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考六：老龄化将倒逼交通设施能力提升</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; border: none; display: inline-block; width: 100%;"><section style="font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: -2px; float: left;"><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.7; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.5; font-family: 宋体;">></span><span class="yead_color" style="color: rgb(19, 14, 105); font-weight: 700; opacity: 0.3; font-family: 宋体;">></span></section><section class="yead_color" style="margin-left: 5px; color: rgb(19, 14, 105); float: left;"><p style="color: inherit;"><strong><span style="color: inherit;">老龄化将迫使交通设施能力相应提升</span></strong></p></section></section></section><p><strong><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">——对机动化出行的影响：出行效率降低</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px;">? </span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">小汽车使用者：</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">老龄驾驶者反应时间及视力下降，反应时间将增加50%以上，视力将下降40%，车头时距将增加20%，老年驾驶员的数量增加将使得道路和交叉口通行能力减小20%。</span><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">? </span><span style="font-size: 14px;">公交车使用者：</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">公交上下车时间将明显增加，调查显示老龄人平均上下车时间大约为3.5s，比中青年人均耗时增加约一倍；</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">假设目前公交运营状况不变，运营时间将增加25%。目前公交运营现状存在站台存在高差、站点覆盖率低等问题。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——对非机动出行的影响：对步行系统要求提升</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">步履蹒跚、拄拐、坐轮椅的出行状态在老年人群中几率较高，使得步行空间宽度增加，对路段的平顺性要求提高，目前步行空间的现状是小部分路段平整性差，不够人性化。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">——对主要交通节点产生影响（交叉口、路段过街）</span></strong><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">过街时间延长，<span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">交通安全性变差(横穿马路、安全意识淡薄等）。50%的老年人在最近30天内乘车时有过车未停稳上下车，近30%乱穿马路，约1/5的人闯红灯，能完全了解步行和骑车规则的不足60%。</span></span></p><p><br  /></p><p><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsDay0Ufzlu5d0pcKjNIFebJpAjbk2tzw4ic6GwjMYLnhQVvundI7I1Mw.jpg" /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style=" margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; text-align: center;  "><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-bottom:-10px"><section class="yead_bdbc" style="border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p><strong>思考七：新技术、新模式引导交通大变革</strong></p></section><section style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;margin-top:-2px"><section class="yead_bdtc yead_bdlc" style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 8px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-left-width: 8px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(19, 14, 105); border-right-width: 8px !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 8px !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important;"></section><section style="width:0;border-top-width:6px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:#fff;border-left-width:5px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:#fff;margin-top:-16px;margin-left:2px;border-right-width:5px!important;border-right-style:solid!important;border-right-color:transparent!important;border-bottom-width:6px!important;border-bottom-style:solid!important;border-bottom-color:transparent!important"></section></section></section></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;"><br  /><br  /></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">——无人驾驶技术增加交通系统承载能力</span></strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">无人汽车的广泛使用提升道路通行能力。</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">美国IEEE 预测，到2040年全球上路的汽车总量中，75% 将会是无人驾驶汽车；</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">交通事故减少50%，通勤时耗及能源减少50%，汽车使用数量减少50%，车道宽度下降由3.5m下降为1.5m~2m；</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">依托上海快速路系统建立车联网系统，运行时间将节省30%，道路通行能力提升50%；</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">——无人驾驶列车增加轨道系统承载能力</span></strong><br  /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">目前现状是轨道交通高峰满载率高，</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">早高峰期间2号线断面流量平均饱和度高达94%，1号线高达89%。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——无人驾驶列车的使用，提高容量供给水平</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">全自动无人驾驶列车的通过能力较传统列车增加20%，</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">列车饱和度下降，乘客舒适性升高。</span></p><p><br  /></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;">——无人机改变现有配送模式减少货运压力</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">电商发展使快递配送货运需求增加，未来将占到高架道路车流量的5.5%，是现在的近40倍，</span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">无人机提高30%配送效率，减少人力运力成本40%。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6;">附：全球城市视角下的上海2050交通战略思考</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><span style="color: rgb(99, 36, 35); font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;  background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">（多图，建议在WIFI环境下浏览）</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsfkSFFVhoJm7QsI7pCROpAyTmcLb4H7BvmrOiazPaicibnL4vhbEIymn1A.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsyGos58yvz9emiccpcOKg6CUzicNZwBkrrtNuyZHr0O8P6D6BJVicWTdUA.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZs5nXP04mqLoiahul1u8GJap27Jmys4PvqpyrEeP7ySdJt3u1VTibLrj5g.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZs4OQCJzj0MgzWo8dXm9vibWwz6qBKrXQ2KxiafaVDQiazy4wjCYonibI2qw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsBLQ70kib7QINzQJ4BmYn6y7tTgw4B7PsApaFCCb7TsbibaiaR3FN8Ticwg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsPFqnEqnuocCbrEcEmSejG8zBEbm0oMqAmneibKjdT5XYQgzbyzicicy0w.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsqXRTzTCKPksMLD7tbSG23cBLiceT4TLY54Cs0YSat2MhUJjeNt8AeTg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsGj9zDuSRXv9AMSFwicPmBX5cCwaXpHFmyvrl8pGkVQXugmd26C3Rbicw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsF6OkPMFmuhuHwziazC8M2qy64qZpbdIKWzj0xGtYc5aR1jCjvIYDiaZg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsNZiaXyiaT6FqnRZSiahzAnKsCwYIgytR5zu2rM8SALCpdzpjCA80zTKWA.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsiaIZ5oKMnb5bSxDujZzFeSc9SpDdj9C2jX92l1nqQYdG8xkTibJxt3Lw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZssOCzl0JR3UoKTd9nUOp2XkfJ065SEabgUVcoITcZzgRo7zpHpNqUwA.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsKrV8JfTcTVUVYHAziawcUDnstXXyz3xn3UZ4lge7dwUoWrWicnXysReA.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsXs2S0KNwAnwLdsyjOIIt3JYEMC97OFnmzGTgwSNlFL6RQGP4ic17wNg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZstmojoOaN0a9E95xYwkcVSlJickBD0ow3E5IeicmHf6PWIib5icjQtHI2Mw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsYNxTDqSqIsibJEGWkXsKUsN6ibR202icYdDBNnv3n9gFfKKgVungTLTKA.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsic6rjzQmFicA7DFiaRmf1vdHGsib3XVTia7pyaFiav4n1CPZNRumSPcnrIQw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsPFV4iaB1HQS0V6NXrNLcVZld83DrMDvLtPXQ28eRdrkE2jY7VZ9vcNw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZse9cHeic7Yy1AvP0oBqzUuVDTUoJ2vpluzH06SAcQzmD3lPvWGgu3Zicg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsLJOUFxI8iaC6icnhic4HcYSYIO1V6yRtkRxicIBcBibfAVflOPdKmvqXqfg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsSfSazWyNBvqIwFzouauOCB83u5PiaUxpUic6fWtt3fWSZe1hH88SyicxA.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsNZG6I2faoSwp2aEJb7Dcgf2OlWSeOvlqia1thj9xibcftE0c00RbvD9g.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsbXgGKhT7axKZDWSmeBgWBb5ibyficvQGuEgzRfzQm858GUScZ4pBoNRQ.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsqwmLl8DCuK2AHna9uQIkLAxrLiaMBJfWwNUO1YRPEicdphnrrcVMuVYg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsJm1DLhLYq5SSaiaCULPXPMibq5bvqxAT9wxBiarOHOk3jUdhIAYaZlh6w.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsSIBCiaLtu258wUgPuE4hicyURNg6MoF8tr1R9XqXJBTiboGYztia8NteOg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZs6Ql5YKd2TxHUr1GOFty7jviaZiau9FUmtkVaOYicGuPWDMU44QtanfGibw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsicA4ge2T41raDbsWYsKTT8Lk4vCRCHGBqpPR8NHGoDDpOg0NJGbk6cg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsXNabAYZH9EHl44M1MdemicAOAgoBia58eicK3XUVo5icRDibic9J1ULOCERg.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsfwNgS6ibwZcefL1eZd8EWTw5xo7wTGFWiakM8QbpwBqHqic77GJOFCwiaw.jpg" /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsNTiaOmbiaDxy8RgGclB1IoUla2zbOJhLdmA5r9eRBhTKzoNqjf2KpzyQ.jpg" /><br  /><br  /><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsXJqCY3oqKmwNbuG2Cdw5ecFumTiandMYcicwDe9EWoNRiatXicBqVonGuA.jpg" /><br  /></span></p><p><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong><span style="font-size: 20px; color: rgb(2, 30, 170);">谢谢！</span></strong></em></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong><span style="font-size: 20px; color: rgb(2, 30, 170);"><br  /></span></strong></em></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style="white-space: normal;"><section style="border: 0px currentcolor; border-image-source: none; font-family: 微软雅黑; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: 2px; margin-left: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219); border-image-source: none; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><h2 data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 3px 10px 2px; font-size: 20px; border-color: rgb(211, 42, 99); box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">作者简介</span></strong></h2><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDeVAVH4NG6u1Qx9gHib19icZsACWGgp5KSeiafZ3cNhO85KKPIYxAVv95IWjWagzdPHPqKOgCaPjX6icw.jpg" /><br  /><section style="padding: 3px 10px 15px; border-color: rgb(211, 42, 99); color: inherit; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>赵一新</strong><strong style="color: inherit; line-height: 1.6;"> </strong><span style="color: inherit; line-height: 1.6;"> </span><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">中国城市规划设计研究院上海分院副院长、教授级高级工程师</span></p><p><span style="color: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span></p><p><span style="color: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">赵一新，中国城市规划设计研究院上海分院副院长、教授级高级工程师。近年获奖的项目包括《北京市王府井商业中心区交通设计与研究》获2000年度国家优秀设计金奖和全国优秀规划设计一等奖、《上海虹桥综合交通枢纽地区规划》2009年度全国优秀城乡规划设计一等奖、《佛山市禅城区近期公交发展规划》2009年度全国优秀城乡规划设计三等奖、《淮南市老城道路网改善规划（2008-2020年）》2009年度全国优秀城乡规划设计三等奖、《青岛市城市空间发展战略研究》2013年度全国优秀城乡规划设计二等奖。主要负责的项目包括上海全球城市综合交通体系承载能力与开发研究、苏州市城市交通发展战略、青岛市城市综合交通发展战略、长三角区域交通一体化发展研究、济南市综合交通规划等。参与撰写并出版的著作包括《城市基础设施工程规划手册》、《中国快速公交规划设计导则》和《中国城市公共交通发展报告2009》等。</span></p></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br  /></p><p><br  /></p><section label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style="margin: 5px auto; white-space: normal; border: currentcolor; border-image-source: none; text-align: center; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="white-space: pre-wrap; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/6d2NKZ8x0GPkvfub2QtqUrB3UdRahYtaydlDSAbn7fhm4ne7leqnw898qttSN0sic7dgiauaztrnDLyC8FIpyxgw.gif" /></p></section><section label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style="white-space: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section></section><section label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style="white-space: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section style="border: 0px currentcolor; border-image-source: none; font-family: 微软雅黑; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: 2px; margin-left: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219); border-image-source: none; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160604/qAEVTTssxDfh1YVBtgEDcQCO2m97HPtQJb0rMzcAKlb9uoJgRjnibiawiaD5FxOlJQ4sPaJd4kxqiaOSZffHvblrEA.jpg" /><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"  /><section style="padding: 3px 10px 15px; border-color: rgb(211, 42, 99); color: inherit; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="border-color: rgb(211, 42, 99); color: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap; min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="font-size: 12px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">CAUPD2015年度业务交流会视频已上传至http://www.china-up.com/video.php，欢迎浏览。</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: center;"><br  /></p>
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