国匠城工作台

当前：新闻编辑 | 格式化工具 | 查看本文

/h1

/h2

strong

/strong

<div class="rich_media_content " id="js_content">
 
 全球经济活动的空间分布：自然、历史、地理的作用The global spatial distribution of economic activity:Nature, history, and the role of trade这篇文章是来自2016年4月NBER的工作论文，作者是Henderson，Squires，Storeygard和Weil。文章主要研究了自然地理在经济活动空间分布中的作用，作者使用覆盖了560平方公里的25万个网格的夜间灯光数据作为经济活动空间分布的代理变量。作者认为灯光数据不仅是人口密度而且也是人均收入的好的代理变量。作者发现，横截面数据灯光亮度和GDP之间的相关性为0.90。作者用式（1）来计算灯光数据代表的经济活动。<img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160525/QlZYkClkYIo8YF1bzgfEc3rGtRm3Jwt4PozYzTasVjMEqlYvG2mf3YJC92TGNriaJJ5eCG5KEtYpJrc0bgibe7Bw.png" /> <img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160525/QlZYkClkYIo8YF1bzgfEc3rGtRm3Jwt4PMX6337icP7GCibInntmxuZ3ntWUd2ickfQjDeavJuSdhZI4h5ibcYjxibw.png" /> 图1 2010年全球的夜间灯光作者将自然地理分为与农业生产率有关的因素和与贸易有关的因素，研究结果显示，和农业有关的自然地理因素（比如气候、温度、海拔等）对发展较早的国家（主要是发达国家）的经济活动的空间分布有较强的解释力，也就是说，在这些国家，人口主要集中在具有较好农业发展条件的地区；而对于发展较晚的国家（主要发展中国家），人口主要集聚在具有较好的贸易发展条件的地区。作者认为之所以会产生上述的结果，主要是三种力量的作用导致的：第一，集聚的持续型，即集聚一旦形成，很难改变；第二，不同自然地理因素在经济发展中的作用的改变，主要有两类最重要的因素，一类是和农业生产率相关的因素在经济中的作用下降，另一类是和贸易相关的因素在经济中的作用提高；第三，自然地理因素在两类国家经济发展中的决定次序的改变。具体的，发达国家集聚和结构转型开始较早，当时交通运输成本依然比较高，所以城市的集聚多集中在不同的农业地区。而较高的贸易成本保护了当地市场。但是发展中国家发展的较晚，在结构转型之前运输成本已经下降了很多，为了在具有有限的国家城市劳动力结构转型之前利用城市规模经济，制造业倾向于集中在少数地区，通常为沿海地区。随着结构转型，这些最初的沿海地区开始发展，而在其他的农业地区没有形成更多的城市。总之，农业基础促进了发达国家经济活动区位的形成，而在发展中国家贸易成本起到了更大的作用。Abstract:We study the distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, across 250,000 grid cells of average area 560 square kilometers. We first document that nearly half of the variation can be explained by a parsimonious set of physical geography attributes. A full set of country indicators only explains a further 10%. When we divide geographic characteristics into two groups, those primarily important for agriculture and those primarily important for trade, we find that the agriculture variables have relatively more explanatory power in countries that developed early and the trade variables have relatively more in countries that developed late, despite the fact that the latter group of countries are far more dependent on agriculture today. We explain this apparent puzzle in a model in which two technological shocks occur, one increasing agricultural productivity and the other decreasing transportation costs, and in which agglomeration economies lead to persistence in urban locations. In countries that developed early,structural transformation due to rising agricultural productivity began at atime when transport costs were still relatively high, so urban agglomerations were localized in agricultural regions. When transport costs fell, these local agglomerations persisted. In late developing countries, transport costs fell well before structural transformation. To exploit urban scale economies,manufacturing agglomerated in relatively few, often coastal, locations. With structural transformation, these initial coastal locations grew, without formation of more cities in the agricultural interior.参考文献：Henderson J V, Squires T L, Storeygard A, et al. The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016.请点击左下阅读原文<hr style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" /><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">中国城市与区域实验室：中国城市与区域研究的交流平台，关注城市与区域发展转型，借鉴全球城市与区域发展智慧，做有国际水平的中国城市与区域现实问题导向型研究。努力做中国城市与区域科学好的研究者，做中国城市与区域科学好的组织者，做中国城市与区域科学好的传播者。 <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">欢迎读者供稿，小编邮箱：LLXJRBB@163.com <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">更多精彩内容，请关注：中国城市与区域实验室<p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">微信号：CCRLAB<p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img src="http://up.upnews.cn/images/20160525/QlZYkClkYIrkqicQpkVgnD2qDYjSdpcJcqYP1aDrX6E2Pia1GBsS1JXWeytJicOkbEWibKibZzyxFcCuNuXgwjcSpCA.jpg" />
 </div>