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停车改革︱史上最强论证：过多停车位会导致更多的驾车出行(两则)
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<div class="rich_media_content " id="js_content"> <section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; letter-spacing: 15px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="letter-spacing: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一<span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"></span><span style="line-height: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);">览<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>众<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>山<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>小</span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;">SustainableCity & Transportation</span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 1em 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJm4Bf3pibXw06L3cCfiblQaXIZWCicsAINWGIlQrDaqPyVCRiahhjbOlLsfg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg"); background-attachment: scroll; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); background-size: 100%; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(8, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 编辑团队</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; border-color: rgb(8, 8, 8); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 原文/ Eric Jaffe、John Metcalfe</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 翻译/ 包磊(同济大学) 文献/ 叶涛 排版/ 蒋理</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 编辑/ 众山小 校核/ 众山小 </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="group-empty" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"> </section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 38.2%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Y3HlkDiay1NWfFjokRhNfqPiaXnKohRbHfEPmibTr7WsI6uJcV8VqTbialQ.jpg" /></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 61.8%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0px 3px 0px 0px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(31, 156, 202); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">译者萌像&导读：</strong></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: block; min-height: 4.5em !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">2015年9月，国家住建部发布了《城市停车设施规划导则》，《导则》中明确“各类建筑物配建停车标准应按照差别化原则合理设定下限与上限控制标准”、“轨道站点500米半径覆盖区域内建筑物停车配件标准比其他区域进一步降低”等等。而早在2014年我号就曾连续发表过一系列的停车改革文章，包括<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODM2NjAxMA==&mid=201299780&idx=3&sn=0fcb557372b6316290045e653137c105&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data_ue_src="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODM2NjAxMA==&mid=201299780&idx=3&sn=0fcb557372b6316290045e653137c105&scene=21#wechat_redirect"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">2014年11月24日期《规划新思︱虚伪的停车配建下限指标》</span></strong></a>，及<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODM2NjAxMA==&mid=201524898&idx=1&sn=f5428b6d429b03924ff2cfa9d9da5e36&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data_ue_src="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODM2NjAxMA==&mid=201524898&idx=1&sn=f5428b6d429b03924ff2cfa9d9da5e36&scene=21#wechat_redirect"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">2014年12月05日期《改革之路︱对小汽车不妥协，从停车位配建改革开始》</span></strong></span></a>。今天我们继续讨论停车的有关内容，则一的观点就是证明停车位和小汽车驾驶里程增加的相关性是很容易的，但是证明其因果性一直很难。这也是我们经常提及的相关并非因果原则。这也就如同吸烟和致癌，争论了很多年之后，才论证成功了其之间的因果关系，从而得以全面推动禁烟。而今年TRB上的这项新研究，借鉴了流行病理学的经验，有史以来最强有力的论证了停车位数量和驾车行为之间的因果关系。从而为我们针对缓解拥堵，加强停车位管理，控制停车位数量的一系列法规政策提供了强有力的支撑！而则二介绍的是针对城市内违规停车的有趣的可视化作品。分车辆品牌的曼哈顿罚单热力图！我们同样还随文提供大量的基础数据呦，欢迎大家一起来玩可视化。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; padding-top: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; width: 90%; margin: 0px auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; float: left; margin-top: -10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5xxLZgBU6atvw2hnNIbEqTyZ8Y8PZdWNMnwB8kzM3LOIib05QpAAggxA/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img src="/image/20160511/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5xxLZgBU6atvw2hnNIbEqTyZ8Y8PZdWNMnwB8kzM3LOIib05QpAAggxA.png" /></section></section><section style="width: 80%; height: 3px; margin: 0px auto; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; float: right; margin-top: -10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5c14FicuJJIuWwvCobb6LImdnZ4gDGORH1bB20eq5iav8Ar2eZUa7JlNQ/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img src="/image/20160511/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5c14FicuJJIuWwvCobb6LImdnZ4gDGORH1bB20eq5iav8Ar2eZUa7JlNQ.png" /></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); -webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); -moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); -o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em; height: 2.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; line-height: 2.6em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"><section style="width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; border-radius: 50%; margin: 0.36em 0px 0.35em 0.44em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em; width: 0px; border-top-width: 1.1em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; border-right-width: 1.12em !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: black; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">史上最强论证：过多停车位会导致更多的驾车出行</section></section><section class="" style="margin: 5px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">原文/ Eric Jaffe 翻译/ 包磊(同济大学)</section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Yv6mrXwx68knRVNhkGaXaV85o7gCEFZC7pHTlw7rdQic6ZPhicM47xzoQ.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图一、大量停车位（John Grimm / Flickr）</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">吸烟导致癌症，这一观点被人们广泛接受其实经历了一段很长的“艰难”岁月。大型烟草公司坚持认为两者之间不存在关联，而科学家要去证明其因果关系异常艰巨。1997年之前，89%的相关法律判决都由于 “没有因果联系”而败诉。到了2003年，这个比例就降至仅为25%。但即便是当时你仍可以发现来自R.J. Reynolds烟草公司的化学家出庭作证，坚持认为“那些关于因果联系的科学证明是并不完备的。”</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">在城市规划领域，停车位数量与驾驶的关系就如同当年的“吸烟与癌症”一样。低廉过量的停车设施，已经与越来越多的独自驾驶出行的通勤者、不断恶化的交通拥堵、增长的房租以及其他所有因过度依赖小汽车而对城市交通造成的社会成本联系在了一起。但事实上许多美国城市都采取了停车位下限配建政策，这说明政府仍然没有充分意识到大量建设停车设施，是刺激小汽车出行比例增长的一个关键因素，很多政府甚至愚蠢的认为停车位的增长建设是小汽车出行增长的自然反应。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">在2016年的TRB会议上，一份最新的有关“停车与驾驶”相关联的研究<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>引起了广泛的注意，其研究成果使得两者具有因果关系的观点更加有力。由国家智能交通项目的Chris McCahill和康涅狄格大学的三位学者拿出了“令人信服的证据”证明“停车位的供应是城市小汽车被大量使用的一个因素。”他们借鉴了流行病学的研究方法，建立了一个用于“因果推论”的框架。该方法在统计学里被称为Bradford Hill判断标准。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一、关联强度</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Hill判断标准中一个主要度量就是关联强度。以法院为例，过去他们认为相对危险度达2.0就足够充分说明某个特殊的药剂（例如香烟）导致某种疾病（例如肺癌）的发生。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">而为了计算出两者的相关性，McCahill和公司利用历史航拍照片和现代GIS监测技术评价了九座倾向于停车位建设的美国中等城市间的关联值。其评价时期跨度三个时代（1969年、1980年和2000年左右），在这段时间里，上述观测城市中没有一个产生大规模的人口增长，这说明了这些城市的建成环境在20世纪中期已经趋于稳定。而其中一些城市具有相当高的小汽车依赖度（源自统计年鉴中驾车通勤数据），例如哈特福特；而另一些没有，例如伯克利。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">然而，停车和驾车是一种“因果性”的联系。研究者发现当人均停车位从0.2增长到0.5时，小汽车通勤分担率将会从60%增长到83%，相对危险度达到了1.4。虽然这个值还并不能达到法院认可的关联强度，但是仍然“证据确凿”。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">（译者注：相对危险度RR（Relative Risk）（也称为风险比）是前瞻性研究（队列研究）中常用的指标，它是暴露组的发病率与非暴露组的发病率之比，用于说明前者是后者的多少倍，是用来表示暴露与疾病联系强度的指标。——百度百科）</em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Y4cUf8StjJQbGyos89rvx5dd5IXIgYjQZgHKtdTqzenu8TFMdicYgyUA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图二、1960-2000年9个美国城市停车供给与小汽车通勤。这些城市包括了奥尔巴尼、阿灵顿（弗吉尼亚州）、伯克利、坎布里奇、哈特福特、洛厄尔、纽黑文、银泉和萨默维尔。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请联系我们索取）</span></strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二、一致性和特异性</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Bradford Hill标准也包括了时间和地点的一致性。举例来说，一个人不论是在安克雷奇还是阿尔伯克基吸烟，都有更大的概率患上肺癌。有关全美各个城市甚至全球各个城市的大量研究已经表明，停车和驾驶出行存在固有的相关性。如果能有一个排除了其他因素的案例出现，那么因果关系的推断将会更强有力。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">于是McCahill团队引用了NelsonNygaard咨询公司的停车问题专家Rachel Weinberger的工作成果，他比较了纽约各个社区的通勤习惯。研究发现诸多的变量（例如公交时间、收入、小汽车保有量）都显示居住在布鲁克林公园坡的市民应该比皇后区杰克森高地的市民更倾向小汽车通勤，但事实上居住在后者的市民开车去曼哈顿通勤的可能性较前者居民高出了45%，开车去任意地区通勤的可能性也要高出28%。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">要解释这一点只有一个可能的原因：杰克森高地比公园坡的停车位多出了好几倍。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、事件序列</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">如果说香烟导致癌症，那么顺序应该是人们先去吸烟然后再患上癌症。反之，仅仅通过一个人得了肺癌是不能说明此人之前是否有吸过烟的，因为导致肺癌有好几种因素。（后者也可以给出这样一种解释，某个人可能正式因为患上肺癌才开始吸烟的，这个解释无法证伪）</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">当然，McCahill团队在他们的分析中研究了两者的顺序：停车供给变化导致了驾车出行的变化比反过来理解要合理许多。1960年至1980年间市民人均可用停车位的变化与后来的小汽车使用有很强的相关性（图三 -1）。相同时间内通勤变化与后来的停车位变化相关性小很多（图三 -2）。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Y4OD7HRiavjgocgiavpf10LRIYp3TBjxrqBPPA4UKfN24qPajpdmMic96A.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YPmMI1iakON6nl6qMZDV4QID6I7gY1HticwVgRAicS6pEOa09E56KmleJA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三、停车供给变化导致驾车出行变化（1）相较反过来理解（2）更为合理。</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四、剂量反应</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">流行病学表征因果关系的另一个元素是剂量效应：举例而言就是你吸烟吸得越多，你越可能患上癌症。利用之前对城镇中心的研究数据，McCahill团队“证实了这个概念”。 这些数据表明当一个地方的单位建筑面积停车位增加时，驾车出行的比例也会增加，这甚至是100%吻合的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YrwyVKqr5icsCCl26BkvoLRZ4gqybLWP4CrW0PSL01cfBRTcZXR5ou9A.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图四、单位建筑面积停车位数与小汽车出行比例</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五、受控实验</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">理想情况上，一个因果联系的确认需要受控实验的支持。停车问题研究者能够提供的最佳案例就是哈特福特的准实验级别案例。在这个小汽车导向的城市里，大部分大公司都提供员工免费停车服务，单独驾车通勤的分担率基本为83%到95%。然而，当一个大公司开始收停车费时，仅仅有71%的员工开车上班——虽然仍不是一个小份额，但已经比城市平均值要低了很多。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">六、说服力</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Bradford Hill标准是一个很可信的生物学机制，它解释了为什么一个因素可以导致疾病。对停车而言，费用低和便捷性高，为驾车出行的增加提供了非常合理的解释。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">当能够轻松地找到目的地附近廉价的停车位时，驾车将会是一件非常有吸引力的选项；当停车非常昂贵（比如由于拥挤和市场定价）和稀少（比如通过取消开发商最少停位限制），替代的出行方式才能开始显现出更大的时间效益和成本效益。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">诱导需求在交通规划领域也有涉猎，城市往往越多的修建道路，就会有越多的人驾车出行。那么下面这个似乎也同样合理，停车位越多，就会有越多的人们驾车去使用它们。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">七、可能的原因</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">这里有个案例。McCahill团队承认，停车-驾车的关联在流行病学框架下并没有完美契合其每一个指标。但是他们仍足够有信心去推断“城市里停车位供应是城市居民和员工新增驾车出行的可能因素。”相反联系的证据也已经出现了，它们表明城市仅仅是为增长的车辆提供停车需求，但是这似乎并不太能靠住脚。但他们认为有足够的信心得出结论 “城市停车位的供应是当地居民和雇员驾车出行的一个可能原因。”而反向证据链也建议，城市很难满足已经存在的停车需求……</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">因此，他们建议城市考虑制定相关政策措施，将停车位限制到满足城市自然需求的最小值。这些政策包括取消停车位下限配建指标、在某些地区实施停车位上限配建指标、实施市场定价。他们总结道无论什么利弊关系都比不上城市健康来的重要。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); -webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); -moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); -o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em; height: 2.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; line-height: 2.6em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"><section style="width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; border-radius: 50%; margin: 0.36em 0px 0.35em 0.44em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</section></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em; width: 0px; border-top-width: 1.1em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; border-right-width: 1.12em !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: black; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 35.2px; text-align: center; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">曼哈顿</span>车辆罚单分品牌热力图</section></section><section class="" style="margin: 5px 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">原文/ John Metcalfe 翻译/ 包磊(同济大学)</section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">谁能知道福特车在纽约被开了这么多罚单呢？</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">每当看到胡乱停放的法拉利被贴罚单，总会有幸灾乐祸的人在背后偷着乐。下图是2014年纽约发生这种事件的26处地点。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Ytb5bicgy6GrGwl8kERddtG2OJl6F5RiatibS2wURthA7xw5ibxC10tFxlw.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图五、法拉利曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共26张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">这个是个有趣的可视化作品，红色表示为更严重的违规停车，这说明某位勒诺克斯山的法拉利车主一定会为：(a)巨额的罚单恼火不已；或(b)因为自己很有钱而完全不在乎。但是这些违法人士仅仅是纽约前个财年(2013年八月到2014年六月)开出的24966张罚单的一小部分。感谢Marko Plahuta，我们现在可以看到所有不同品牌车辆的违规停车地图了。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Plahuta，47岁，居住在斯洛文尼亚，为凯迪拉克、雪弗兰、本田、林肯、奥迪、特斯拉以及其他品牌的车辆的违规停车地点制作了可视化地图。“我搜集了这些数据,”他说道“因为我希望能够做一款手机app，通过一张过往违规停车分布地图来帮助司机避免将车停在那些一定会被开罚单的区域和时间段。”点开其中一张地图就可以看到全天开具罚单的动态图。比方说，下面是宝马的动态图，揭示了一大波违规停车出现在早高峰时期附近。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YdUOOuDev26taSkcoibrlYRgicGzKDaC7woQhuDqyl7g69kTQPvwurOeQ.gif" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图六、宝马曼哈顿罚单动态热图（2014年） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Plahuta描述了在Virostatiq进行这个项目时做的相关工作，一个需要注意的重要事情是这些地图并没有被标准化。“需要说的是，这些地图没有按全局最大值着色，”他说道，“我有制作了一系列的标准化地图，但是如果这样的话就有一些开具罚单数过少的车辆品牌，可视化之后的街道仍是灰色，就像没有着色一样。”即使是没有标准化，它们仍然十分有用，可以用来了解各品牌的车辆都在哪里被开了罚单。下面有几个例子，图七是全品牌的车辆罚单热图。热点区域在市中心，曼哈顿下城和上东区。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YiaFyicOPuTBgXN1j2S0McAjibu714SALUnHrTHSdSfWVx41GAic2jXoia0A.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图七、所有车型曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共24966张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">在2014财年，福特车以3198张罚单数量一举拿下了被开最多罚单汽车品牌的桂冠。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Y1xRjHbbdZlXOPe8dQJTX1a6LytkXPsrEzDkZkMaSiaY0J9a8sau8Mgw.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(70, 69, 69); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图八、福特汽车曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共3198张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">保时捷司机被开了297张罚单，他们中大部分在切尔西，是因为这个社区有豪华品牌车辆经销商吗?</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Y8w3DvsaLN61eFlnOhmicTGKaqJ3Fia8hiay1Fh9ZgqlHrnDlCibtxE7ibHQ.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图九、保时捷曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共237张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通协管在上西区对斯巴鲁开具罚单比较多。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Yiaxv7MRnr9uV9k1DlziatH5fBvhHaJEMXUeNBTcfW1ubF49dP9QibhkGQ.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十、斯巴鲁曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共407张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">雷克萨斯的热点在小意大利区域。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YkYFZjeXqBwlMf1qtKLQ3HbENFFDTdgFLVKlCNvdWCnNUX92KzCaibCQ.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十一、雷克萨斯曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共556张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">华尔街更倾向于向美国国产车辆开具罚单，例如道奇、福特、雪佛兰，如下所示：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YHqjl9P8F9QVic1PHicJTlNNepziaW73I0bkhQtiasVBmdIjicJKHQgMRqcA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十二、雪佛兰曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共2304张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">以下是对曼哈顿每种品牌车辆违规停车可视化地图制作过程的技术解释。想看交互式可视化作品点击这里http://virostatiq.com/data-visualizations/manhattan-parking-infractions/index.html。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YedOxZFVRWphTO8V6qwDIg9xOKe7nCa4mwqAoLzicIicew3cJHhFxwHrw.png" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十三、奥迪和宾利曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共2304张） </strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">去年我推出了一个安卓app，为了让斯洛文尼亚的司机们更好的避免停在那些常常容易被交通协警盯上的地区。App首先定位用户的位置，然后绘制出附近以往被开罚单的区域，点击还会出现细分到了每个月、每天的时段、以及热力显示的页面。这并没有非常成功，但是对于一个小国家而言，又没有营销预算，这已经做的非常不错了。我当时想做一个纽约的版本，但是随后还是放弃了这个项目。这些可视化是这个项目保留下来的全部成果。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">我开始从纽约开放数据库里下载数据<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献2，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>。这些数据比较丰富，但是没有地理编码。很幸运Mapbox在那时正好推出了一个批量地理编码器，并且是免费没有限制的。因此我很快用它编码了大约十万条地址，并保存了结果已备后用<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献3，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>。这个结果可以在网上以JSON文件格式下载<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献4，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>。2014年纽约城市停车罚单Parking tickets in New York City in 2014——按车型和小时划分的JSON文件。每一个车型一个文件，包括每小时违规停车的定位JSON数组。仅有曼哈顿和皇后区。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">绘制过程要比我想象的简单。我从New York GIS Clearinghouse下载了街道数据<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献5，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>，利用QGis剔除了其他地区仅保留了曼哈顿地区的数据。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">首先我尝试了最有可能实现的矩阵法，但是我无法旋转热力图，这将十分不便。下面是奥迪的例子：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YlOIoeWniccCDpiauPfSK9JaucBEoibxpr7VgUPgac80PyvWqOEo8zJWpg.png" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十四、矩阵法-奥迪</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">如你所见，这是一张热图，但是看起来并不好看。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以我自己写了一个Python脚本遍历了所有路段，当一个违规停车点距相应路段100米内我就为这条路段附上一点。接着我们用matplotlib绘图库绘制了所有的路段，并依据每条路段最大值进行上色。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">最终，奥迪如下所示：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Yzg9OqdibOZWeeGA0aTzcFdX2GwdGr4cO4Tzuz6OqInc7mHJTCRKtDOg.png" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(70, 69, 69); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十五、奥迪曼哈顿罚单热图（2014年，共500张）</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">为了实现动态GIF，需要为每一个时段每一种品牌的汽车绘制图像。我对原始脚本做了些许改动（中途我学习了Python多线程）就实现了这个功能。最后通过ImageMagic将这些图片转换成动态GIF。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">我使用一台cpu为i7-6700内存32 GB RAM的电脑进行计算和绘图，整个过程一共花费了大约12个小时。我想我是可以再节省几个小时的，但是就让它跑一晚上也挺方便的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">最后，点击这里看交互式可视化作品，http://virostatiq.com/data-visualizations/manhattan-parking-infractions/；如果你喜欢它请在评论区留言告诉我你的想法。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">这里你还可以看到一些有趣的数据库和模型，这些都是我在做各类项目中完善和编写的。现在免费提供下载和实验。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们为本文提供的免费下载资料有：</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1、《停车供给对城市小汽车使用的影响：因果关系的推断》</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8Y9sJt8dN59r4F8iafxH9hW8XS3hzPOqp5ByByqyXYpuE3sJEAgdIyvsA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YzdRwWVhhlLibjdicphJ91eeDVAEtfv1rTcPo4ibeWheHpUVsn2L9c0MOA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2&3、《2014财年纽约停车罚单开放数据》(1.67G)</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YicsdsLw7icL9s2DEz8ia6xso4kBVmsweIrnuX3sbUiaA8j17oQu5CPykSA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">4、《2014年纽约城市停车罚单按车型和小时划分的JSON文件》</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YGSN2OawibMs9g68175PELPuibsrCL6xuibWuXicDCZNYic6zNqmU95dyhicQ.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">5、《纽约街道地理数据》</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tiaibh2KNialwYe69BMciaicCiby8YSXc2KhTsibiaOSP3NEpLQDnuXLGnG9iaV1Syx3fK6oicNyU6lXiaWqEqBEA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(31, 156, 202); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">请联系我们微信号@SustainableCity</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">或电邮daizongliu@qq.com 索取</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmib00WGibFPXl2qEGNKZHzyGkZkfsuB5NTicv8f6YKUAM4ol71NYtiby7rQ.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(31, 156, 202); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">购买2015上半年刊，请点击阅读原文......</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 2.2em; height: 2.2em; border: 0.12em solid rgb(225, 224, 224); border-radius: 50%; margin: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; box-shadow: rgb(194, 190, 190) 0px 0.2em 0.2em; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="width: 100%; margin-top: -1.7em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 1.2em; height: 1.2em; margin: -0.5em auto; border: 0.1em solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 0.45098); border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);"></section></section><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(45deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(45deg); -moz-transform: rotate(45deg); -o-transform: rotate(45deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.5em; height: 2.5em; border-left-width: 0.1em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-top-width: 0.1em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); 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"><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJm1cOHa0rtV8KBWZ6XAf6owVKrtRiahAdQ5A9KJO17XEKUMQkh7jPEjsA.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">「 欢迎投稿 」</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">我们作为专业志愿者团体，秉承理想，帮助中国可持续发展。并为之贡献：理念与传播、培训与教育、实践与孵化。欢迎您加入我们一起并肩前行！</section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">2014-2016 ? 转载请注明：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />源自公众号“一览众山小-可持续城市与交通”</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><img src="/image/20160511/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmAHicUc2jA3Cwk4urpgoqGk0FDx8AM5n51LmsicYVMWEGJOZLxiaFXVhSw.jpg" /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="clear: both; 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