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 城市蔓延在交通事故中的影响Urban Sprawl as A Risk Factor in Motor Vehicle Crashes 本期推送的论文是由犹他大学的Reid Ewing、Shima Hamidi及美国地质勘探局James B Grace合作发表在“Urban Studied”期刊2016年第2期的一篇文章。某种程度而言，城市蔓延是导致许多城市病发生的关键所在。已有许多学者对城市蔓延和交通死亡事故、肥胖病、心脏病、空气污染、住宅能源使用等之间的关系展开研究，正如预期的那样，大多数研究结论认为城市蔓延对公众的生活质量有着负向影响。其中，城市蔓延与交通安全之间的关系已有较深入的研究（Ewing and Dumbaugh, 2009）：城市蔓延是造成交通事故的风险因素，尤其是对严重的交通事故而言。作者首先把美国县级层面的原始的城市蔓延指数更新至2010年，并构造出一个全新的城市蔓延指数，该指数包含了更多的蔓延与交通事故之间的信息。样本数据包含了美国994个大都市区的县，涵盖了大多数城市中心及83%的人口。在此基础上，作者试图通过经验分析的方法发现城市蔓延对所有交通事故类型的影响。在理论机制方面，作者认为建筑环境主要通过交通流量和交通速度两个中介变量影响交通事故。城市发展模式主要通过交通流量、其次是交通速度影响公众安全。而道路的设计主要通过交通速度、其次是交通流量影响公众安全。交通流量是影响交通事故的主要因素，而交通速度是影响交通事故程度的决定性因素。因而，可以预期城市的发展模式和道路设计随着城市的蔓延加剧了交通事故的频率和程度（如下图所示）。同时，有许多文献指出具有更多居民、更多就业以及更多的道路里程的区域均有更高的发生交通事故的几率（Hadayeghi et al.,2003,2006; Kmet et al., 2003; Ladron de Guevara et al., 2004; Levine et al., 1995a,1995b;Lovegrove and Sayed, 2006）。<img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/QlZYkClkYIqeUJM8HvloEBlZIAKayvDOxYIzOMVH9x4ubWfcVCqUgEK65JQKkrXxpNyEG4Mfjud9d5NhFXyUBQ/0?wx_fmt=png" style="font-family: 宋体; line-height: 1.6;" data-ratio="0.4982014388489209" data-w="" /> 在实证部分，作者采用结构方程模型（Structural Equation Modeling, SEM）考察了城市蔓延对交通事故的影响。研究结果显示：不论从直接或间接的角度而言，城市蔓延对交通事故而言是一个显著的风险因素；更为紧凑的区域可以降低车辆行驶里程，也降低了大规模的致命性交通事故的概率。 ABSTRCT：A decade ago, compactness/sprawl indices were developed for metropolitan areas and counties which have been widely used in health and other research. In this study, we first update the original county index to 2010, then develop a refined index that accounts for more relevant factors, and finally seek to test the relationship between sprawl and traffic crash rates using structural equation modelling. Controlling for covariates, we find that sprawl is associated with significantly higher direct and indirect effects on fatal crash rates. The direct effect is likely due to the higher traffic speeds in sprawling areas, and the indirect effect is due to greater vehicle miles driven in such areas. Conversely, sprawl has negative direct relationships with total crashes and non-fatal injury crashes, and these offset (and sometimes overwhelm) the positive indirect effects of sprawl on both types of crashes through the mediating effect of increased vehicle miles driven. The most likely explanation is the greater prevalence of fender benders and other minor accidents in the low speed, high conflict traffic environments of compact areas, negating the lower vehicle miles travelled per capita in such areas. 参考文献：Ewing R, Hamidi S,Grace J B. Urban sprawl as a risk factor in motor vehicle crashes [J]. Urban Studies, 2016, 53(2): 247-266. 点击左下阅读原文<hr style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" /><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">中国城市与区域实验室：中国城市与区域研究的交流平台，关注城市与区域发展转型，借鉴全球城市与区域发展智慧，做有国际水平的中国城市与区域现实问题导向型研究。努力做中国城市与区域科学好的研究者，做中国城市与区域科学好的组织者，做中国城市与区域科学好的传播者。 <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">欢迎读者供稿，小编邮箱：LLXJRBB@163.com <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">更多精彩内容，请关注：中国城市与区域实验室<p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">微信号：CCRLAB<p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img id="ledtxt.com" width="auto" data-w="100" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/QlZYkClkYIrkqicQpkVgnD2qDYjSdpcJcqYP1aDrX6E2Pia1GBsS1JXWeytJicOkbEWibKibZzyxFcCuNuXgwjcSpCA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" />
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