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                        <section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; letter-spacing: 15px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="letter-spacing: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一<span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"></span><span style="line-height: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);">览<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>众<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>山<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>小</span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;">SustainableCity & Transportation</span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 1em 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJm4Bf3pibXw06L3cCfiblQaXIZWCicsAINWGIlQrDaqPyVCRiahhjbOlLsfg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg"); background-attachment: scroll; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); background-size: 100%; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(8, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">  编辑团队</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; border-color: rgb(8, 8, 8); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 原文/ Eric Jaffe、ChristopherIngraham</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 翻译/ 冯灿芳 <span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;"> 文献/ 谢林君  校核/ 众山小 </span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 编辑/ 众山小   排版/ 周利亚 </section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 38.2%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; width: 80%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJm66UHOmCbuDAqkHoFlBBI2gVLptpqCicrbgKYZ4pp0qt4VrKnMaCgbTQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1" data-w="170"  /></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 61.8%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0px 3px 0px 0px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(31, 156, 202); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">译者萌像&导读：</strong></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: block; min-height: 4.5em !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">当城市不断扩张、规模不断增大时，城市居民的通勤时间也随之增加，这是普遍规律。但是研究者从不同视角出发，对该现象抱有不同的理解。则一从城市效率和资源分配的角度赞同城市扩张，认为其带来的通勤时间增加会让位于更大的劳动力市场。该研究指出，高密度、居住与就业再分布、整体机动性这三个要素的能够帮助大都市在扩张过程中保持“灵活、能自我调节的通勤模式”，使得人口翻倍的城市其通勤出行时间只需提高7%，而不是原来数学统计的41%。尽管该研究存在一些局限和不足，但它通过比较视角让我们更深入地探讨城市规模与通勤的相互关系。则二从时间成本和居民生活的角度极力反对城市通勤时间的增加，认为长途通勤带来的负面影响不仅影响到个人行为选择，还与肥胖、高胆固醇、高血压、背部和颈部疼痛、离婚、抑郁和死亡等问题的发生频率联系了在一起。因此让我们就看看不同观点的碰撞吧。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; padding-top: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; width: 90%; margin: 0px auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; float: left; margin-top: -10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5xxLZgBU6atvw2hnNIbEqTyZ8Y8PZdWNMnwB8kzM3LOIib05QpAAggxA/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img id="ledtxt.com" class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5xxLZgBU6atvw2hnNIbEqTyZ8Y8PZdWNMnwB8kzM3LOIib05QpAAggxA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="16"  /></section></section><section style="width: 80%; height: 3px; margin: 0px auto; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(31, 156, 202); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 156, 202); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; float: right; margin-top: -10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5c14FicuJJIuWwvCobb6LImdnZ4gDGORH1bB20eq5iav8Ar2eZUa7JlNQ/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img id="ledtxt.com" class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/EOic34ujsUjFnBnwWe9jC8uqORFECiamW5c14FicuJJIuWwvCobb6LImdnZ4gDGORH1bB20eq5iav8Ar2eZUa7JlNQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="16"  /></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em; height: 2.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; line-height: 2.6em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"><section style="width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; border-radius: 50%; margin: 0.36em 0px 0.35em 0.44em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em; width: 0px; border-top-width: 1.1em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; border-right-width: 1.12em !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); display: inline-block; font-size: 20.8px; border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; padding: 1px 5px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;">则一、为何城市通勤时间没有随人口增长一样成比例增长？</span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;">原文/ ERIC JAFFE   翻译/ 冯灿芳</span></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmQvHGgjbRGehS9f9RAZlEHRK1kcxT0KmMEuw9bGFr9wR00deKktdS7Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7248201438848921" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图一、<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">通勤高峰示意图</span></em></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">你很可能不喜欢你每天的通勤状况，但研究人员发现它其实并不是那么糟糕，有三个理由可以说明这点，详细分析如下。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">更大的城市拥有更高的效率。当一个都市区域在扩张时，它会带来更大的劳动力市场：就业人员可以选择更多更好的就业岗位，就业岗位可以筛选更多更好的就业人员。与此同时，一个城市环境的凝聚力在上升，包括共享知识和基础设施的能力，例如更多的财富和知识会在此集聚和发生。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">让人有点惊讶的是，尽管城市在不断地扩张，城市生活并不会因此而变慢或被停滞。当然，有时候也会有这种停滞感，尤其当你陷于通勤高峰的僵局时。尽管交通拥堵会成为个人烦恼，但它也可能预示着健康有活力的经济发展。试想一下，如果每周一你都能很轻易地开车到市中心，那么极有可能的是，市中心也没啥事情好做的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">以2000年代的纽约和芝加哥做对比。那时候纽约有着比芝加哥大两倍多的人口，两个城市的就业岗位比也是：760万比390万。但是它并没有产生两倍多的交通拥堵。相反的是，纽约居民一小时内抵达工作岗位的人数比芝加哥高出85%（620万比360万），半小时内多出82%（370万比200万）。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">换句话说，纽约通勤高峰时期的拥堵摩擦只是轻微的损害了它那强大的劳动力市场。并且纽约还不是特例。在纽约大学主持城市化项目的Shlomo Angel 和Alejandro Blei针对美国40个人口分异的都市区进行生产力评估，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">分析指出拥有每当城市就业岗位数量翻一倍的时候，城市劳动力就业市场在“可容忍”的通勤时间范围内的数量也几乎翻一番：30分钟（87%）、45分钟（94%）、60分钟（97%）。</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">(http://www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-stern/about/departments-centers-initiatives/centers-of-research/urbanization-project/project-overview/project-team)</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Angel和Blei在Cities杂志的一篇论文<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请联系我们索取）</strong></span>里提到，更大的劳动力市场没有引起整体停滞是因为这些大都市有着“灵活、能自我调节的通勤模式”，以此维持大城市本身的经济优势。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">这些模式有三个核心组成：高密度、工作和居住的再分布，及整体的机动性。</strong>这些要素集中在一起能让人口多一倍的城市的可容忍的通勤时间平均只提升7%，而不是数学统计出来的可怕的41%。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三个核心组成</strong></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">高密度的作用很清晰。当居住与工作集聚在一起时，通勤时间就会缩短。Angel 和 Blei在它们40个美国都市案例研究发现：高密度可以使得多出1倍人口的城市平均只多占70%的土地。在这些城市里，高密度可以降低通勤时间到30%，而不是预期计算的40%。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmSTgxQAtibqibZXzsxQl9j4HVuPlbHkyN5aonOibNQZ0e1mlTQy0CH6Oew/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.8812949640287769" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">图二、高密度使得人口多出1倍的城市平均只多占70%土地（参考文献1，请联系我们索取）</span></strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">那么来谈谈就业与居住用地的再布局。根据Angel和Blei的分析，在就业这一端，除非就业人员的工作地点超出了他们可以接受的通勤范围，一般大家都不倾向于离开，也就是说大家倾向于住得离工作更近，而不是更远。与此同时，靠近就业中心的商业业态显示，近年来多元的职业介绍所在这类中心区蓬勃发展起来，并日益减少了对城市商务中心(CBD)的依赖。（也就是疏散了中心区的就业压力）</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">把这些出行合算在一起就得出2倍人口的城市，平均通勤时间仅多出13% --- 而不是原来测算的30%增长比。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmgezCIcTic5GJN3ewrxCIyK6R4FOx5kiaCP2Rw609SqLFET8drD5dKruQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.45143884892086333" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三、居住-就业通勤地图显示就业廊道存在于特定的都市区域—而不仅仅是通过商务中心而已。</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">最后，Angel和Blei发现在更大城市里随着通勤距离增加，通勤时间也只是缓慢增加而已。他们认为节省的时间是因为通勤从原来的低速路转去不断扩大的高速路网。（不过这些研究者只是专注于都市区域的公路网络，这是考虑到仍有绝大多数比例的美国人是单独驾车去工作的，但之前的研究也表明公共交通在都市区经济发展过程中扮演着重要的角色。）</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以2倍人口的城市通勤时间仅增加7%，是原来只   考虑了高密度和再分布两个因素所得出的13%的一半。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmvvBpteMmIoOaZWqDCCqXX6pj68R4yhyEm0ic12lQkP9XzcGLYq49qcw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.9100719424460432" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">图四、研究样本中人口多出1倍的城市通勤时间仅增加7%，部分是因为有更好的机动性。</span></strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;">这意味着什么？</span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">总而言之，高密度、再分布和机动性降低了大都市区所预期的通勤时间6倍，相当于减少了城市人口规模的一半。对于那些职住靠近的区域：高密度贡献了25%的时间降低效益，再分布贡献了41%，机动性贡献了34%。Angel和Blei也总结了一些规划意见：(1)帮助人们在工作地附加找到价格适当的住房，（2）在工作地附近布局商业，（3）缩短从家到办公室的通勤时间。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Angel认为“某种程度，我们呼吁这种以“地方主义”为代价的“区域主义”或“大都市主义”的再生。在美国大都市区域依然很难实施公平的住房政策，依然很难让贫困人口迁居到排他性强的郊区，依然很难规划网格状的巴士路线让居民快速高效地往返工作地。”</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">这个研究有很多局限性。例如，聚焦于2000年以来的数据，无法分析过去10年的城市中心的增长。聚焦于公路网络，它低估了交通系统的平衡角色，交通的换乘需求及公路扩张溢出的社会和经济成本。同时，聚焦于系列城市群，它无法独立分析城市个体，或者说相对于芝加哥或者纽约，像亚特兰大这种严重蔓延的城市是更好还是更差，它无法做出解释。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">这份研究也有一些混乱的关于规划的信息。一方面，要发挥高密度和机动性的优点需要沿着公交廊道集中紧凑发展；另一方面，高速路是专注于小汽车出行，其优点似乎违背公交廊道现状。Angel倾向于从更高的视角来分析：让通勤变得难以接受的地方，自主性有可能会降低整体交通效率——那么就目前而言，不管判断是更好还是更差，美国都市区的通勤更多都指向私家车出行。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">Angel在email最后也提到:“据我所看，未来唯一可能的是无人驾驶车取代私家车，减少污染，用更少的道路和停车空间为没车的居民服务。我并不反对沿着公交廊道集中紧凑发展，这是很好的愿景。然而面对四分之三的就业岗位都分布在公交廊道之外的现实，这显然不是一个有效的解决方法。”</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em; height: 2.6em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; line-height: 2.6em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);"><section style="width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; border-radius: 50%; margin: 0.36em 0px 0.35em 0.44em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="" style="width: 100%; height: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</section></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em; width: 0px; border-top-width: 1.1em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; border-right-width: 1.12em !important; border-right-style: solid !important; border-right-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="border-top-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); display: inline-block; font-size: 20.8px; border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; padding: 1px 5px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;">则二、美国人通勤时间越来越长了</span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;">原文/ Christopher Ingraham   翻译/ 冯灿芳</span></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">那么来谈谈就业与居住用地的再布局。根据Angel和Blei的分析，在就业这一端，除非就业人员的工作地点超出了他们可以接受的通勤范围，一般大家都不倾向于离开，也就是说大家倾向于住得离工作更近，而不是更远。与此同时，靠近就业中心的商业业态显示，近年来多元的职业介绍所在这类中心区蓬勃发展起来，并日益减少了对城市商务中心(CBD)的依赖。（也就是疏散了中心区的就业压力）</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">把这些出行合算在一起就得出2倍人口的城市，平均通勤时间仅多出13% --- 而不是原来测算的30%增长比。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmLWePVwVWuQgYGibY46ZlC8lM4fVY4DBiaolq1yStua7QUxxO7FKicLc4w/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.5" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">图五、美国通勤时间在增加 图：华盛顿邮报</span></em></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">根据美国人口统计数据显示：一个美国职工平均花在通勤的时间是26分钟。这是自1980年统计以来最长的通勤时间了。之前仅仅是21.7分钟。美国人平均通勤时间上涨了20个百分点。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJml6mCz0srp7AyGCJDWfmYkaRt6iaqzD4NRR4HdfQ7KxPRDTomKOYgicvw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.8345323741007195" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图六、美国通勤时间在增加</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">据人口统计显示，在2014年大概有1.39亿上班族。平均每次通勤时间是26分钟，一周5天，一年50周，计算下来，美国人2014年一年就花了1.8万亿分钟在上班的路上。或者说，296亿小时，12亿天，或者大概340万年。利用这些时间我们可以创建近300个Wikipedias, 或者建26个Giza金子塔 – 这还仅仅是2014年一年而已。不过现实是，这些时间里我们都坐在小汽车或者用来等公交车了。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;">讨厌现在的通勤？其实它还将变得越来越糟糕。</span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">当然，并不是我们所有的人通勤出行都花26分钟。大概有25%的美国人单程花不到15分钟的时间。另一方面，接近17%的人花45分钟或者更长的时间。还有这些长通勤的时间一直在增长。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">例如根据人口统计显示，上世纪80年代，只有少于12%的美国人，单程出行花45分钟或者更多的通勤时间。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJm0597NXQRecb5yc0dbQu6ey5p5rupMqQFxj9fvzaO8BpFg36U5NkFEw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7605118829981719" data-w="547"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">图七、美国人口统计的通勤时间</span></strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1980年的人口统计区分了60和90分钟，因为在那时候这非常罕见。不过从1990年开始，他们对这些花长通勤时间的人进行跟踪调查。当年1.6%的人单程路上花90分钟。到2014年，比例上升到2.62%，相比1990年上涨了近64个百分点。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmMENtFdf9HMjeyoUFxu9yGlxlM0BpHankKfWpCfoTSA6qRsLU5gxXHg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7517985611510791" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图八、长途通勤时间在增加</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">单程花90分钟的职工大概有 360万，他们花了生命中很大一部分的时间在通勤的路上。设想：如果你单程花26分钟，就意味着一年中有整整9天的时间来回在通勤路上。这可能比你预期的要多，但也没有那么糟。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">相比之下，那些单程90分钟的长途通勤的人一天要花三个小时在路上。一年就相当于一整个月都花在通勤上，好比如整个八月份，一天24个小时都坐在车上或者公交车上。那就是360万美国人正面对的事实。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJm7Gdw7TFlGzKaqgUjjP0zSWKnz7tg1prrg5vTGr39Mgxp1Iqhl7t14w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7949640287769785" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">图九、你一天中要浪费多长时间在通勤上</span></strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">这是一种很糟糕的生活方式。人们讨厌花在路上的时间比讨厌其他任何一件事都要严重。诺贝尔文学奖的获得者Kahneman和经济学家Alan Krueger请900个德克萨斯的妇女进行投票，票选出对生活中各类活动的看法，其中早上通勤是所有积极反馈中的最后一个，排在工作，照顾孩子和家务之后。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">有很多关于人的健康和社会的调查显示，通勤时间所带来的是消极的影响。通勤时间与肥胖、高胆固醇、高血压、背部和颈部疼痛,离婚、抑郁和死亡等事情发生频率的增加联系在一起。从社会学角度上讲，那些长途通勤的人很少会去投票。也很有可能不去上班。他们很少能摆脱贫困。他们的孩子更有可能存在情绪上的问题。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;">当公司并不靠近家的时候，美国人都去哪里上班</span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">说得抽象一点，这么一群长途通勤的人就像被困在一个泳池中。设想，假如我们有魔力可以减少花在路上的90分钟时间，使90分钟减到30分钟 – 接近平均水平。那么这些转变可以给这些人平均每天多带来2个小时的时间。然后乘以一年250个工作日，也就是一年多出500个小时。乘以360万人，那就有18亿个小时转变成潜在的经济动力。这就相当于90万个全职工作。现在如果给一个人两个小时的时间，他可能并不会把时间花在工作上。 他可能会看电视，玩Candy Crush或者和朋友一起喝酒，或者做一些并不是那么有产出的事情。但是他可以有更多时间做一些重要的事情。他可以有更多时间照顾自己的孩子，自己的身体和婚姻。他将得到更好的休息，成为更出色的员工。这将激发潜在的可能性。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">当然，我们并没有这种魔力让这一切发生。但是，这提醒我们，那些长途通勤给这个社会带来的负面影响。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">通勤经常改变一个消费者的喜好，从一定程度上说就是“住得离公司近”和”住在一个更大的房子”，更多人选择了后者，尤其是当他们有了孩子以后。但是城市生活成本越来越高。对于很多家庭来说，住在市中心靠近公司根本就不可能，这与房子大小无关。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">一个可以解决长途通勤的方法是降低城市生活成本。当然，还有一个更简单的方法，就是远程办公。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmu4Dg69AfKibrLWTO41jSdoDGzs6q5WPxaDazzQJ16zlOv9ib4GqDL3Lw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7482014388489209" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十、远程办公在增加</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="width: 2.8em; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/3hUA8s6XnazrtMJR01dQ9PLHoaQCmY4SfkmbKCt4FNlaYgPgV6y73lPsYAl450FxpRv45uicnZxQpaQS7eNNNKw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-ratio="0.38636363636363635" data-w="44"  /> <section style="width: 100%; border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(31, 156, 202); margin-top: -0.2em; box-sizing: border-box; background: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmFmiaz7icSdvONn807ic5KVvvELxs8y6MtyIpgITXia7Mkrb30HNxWb9fCw/0?wx_fmt=png") repeat-x;" class=""></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(31, 156, 202); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们为本文提供的免费下载资料有：</strong></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1、《美国城市的生产力：如何通过加高密度、居住与就业再分布、整体机动性维持美国大都市区劳动力市场的生产优势》</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img id="ledtxt.com" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia9TACYZupTJ7OoMpkZpHaJmjDJJouhsoBfIv2Kp9k47al4JwGNibesHDxWlic35jIgtjC8ouJNRQxibg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3559322033898304" data-w="531"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; 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