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                        <section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="border: 0px none; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: 微软雅黑;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219); margin-bottom: 2px; margin-left: 4px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><h2 data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 20px; padding: 3px 10px 2px; border-color: rgb(211, 42, 99); box-sizing: border-box;"><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjDRq5AxbUUFujwSwTNlAMy2alicUp5US9ec94R2toD1afNvbEmJib43DA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6275" data-w="400"  /><br  /></h2><p> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">? </span><strong>主办</strong>：中国城市规划学会城市交通规划学术委员会</p><p><br  /></p><p> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">? </span><strong>承办</strong>：深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心</p><p><br  /></p><p><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;  background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </span><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;  color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">? </span><strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;"></span>协办</strong>：深圳市城市规划学会  <br  />               深圳市城市规划协会 </p><p>               深圳市城市交通协会 <br  />               深圳市城市轨道交通协会</p><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;">               深圳市智慧交通产业促进会 <br  />               未来交通实验室联盟 </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;">               现代城市交通技术江苏高校协同创新中心 </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.6;">               深圳睿天文化有限公司<br  /><br  /></span></p></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><blockquote class="main" tyle="margin: 0px; padding: 15px; border: 1px solid #00BBEC;border-radius: 5px;" style="border-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"><p class="ue_t"><span style="font-size: 14px;">2016年4月15-16日，“2016年中国城市交通规划年会——交通变革：多元与融合”在深圳召开。同济大学教授、城市交通规划学术委员会副主任杨东援在会上作了题为“通过大数据推动综合交通规划理论变革”的主题演讲报告。本文根据会议视频做概略性整理，以飨读者。感谢会议主办方提供资源支持！</span></p><p class="ue_t"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br  /><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjibibgfPfgdAY2XQqUnMETVetfq4DfMeepAoDteKerc8UEqQibmL1JY6yw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5488029465930019" data-w="543"  /><br  /></span></p></blockquote></section><p><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 20px; box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204);"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 7px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"><p style="color: inherit; text-align: justify; font-family: inherit;"><strong><span style="color: inherit; font-size: 16px;">变革意识，交通规划理论的活力</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="white-space: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); line-height: 1.6;"><br  />新趋势：此“规划”非彼“规划”</span></strong></span></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"><br  /></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;"><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjNdtrUWYDBQVmsE14G4WZ9HvKpnBiclmkicZWwoSYgQjYNRVxiaumPNnjw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5989208633093526" data-w=""  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">新形势：中央城市工作会议精神</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjciaVuBBRjtjbwiacr6ptynwzxs00Y9tSH7dlTBiaDGpqyhOU2PWVkUwDQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.4226618705035971" data-w=""  /><br  /><span style="line-height: 1.6;"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">新任务：城市群综合交通规划</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwj6UfzAibtrfUeticxGZFIibZxicQaacOHGSaeLzv5cZiaDSoKMTFYKPKjZug/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6510791366906474" data-w=""  /><br  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">新基础：相关学科的变革成果</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjTQ4DwmUXNWsPCkF7tY4ibEFbwYvENs6MJ0ErrKP6SFmmVMNiclqUKAYw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6025179856115108" data-w=""  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">变革需求之一：多维度分析</span></strong></span></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">综合交通整合规划的任务，并非简单实现多种方式间的接驳，而是<strong><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(188, 27, 18);">需要实现与城市空间体系的整合，多种交通模式的合理结构，软硬对策间的协同，以及通过复合服务网络适应多样化需求。</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjnHiaA4lg3ybjsXMk7Ciapm8EwJqJZ5XKU6o4w8kGdLu5Z4UIlyAyZHOA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6780575539568345" data-w=""  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">为此，交通分析不能再局限于“交通量”预测，而是<strong><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(188, 27, 18);">需要扩展到“空间活力”、“可转移流量分析”、“需求受控响应”、“多样化需求与复合服务协同”等方面</span></strong>。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">变革需求之二：直面不确定性</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjS1ny3BJsSnKejmC9ibkRINf5XBzIxwwFAkZiaibXicWnY9f2ybXkVjAKcg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.4472168905950096" data-w="521"  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们一直在努力提高预测精度，但是现在却不得不思考未来是否是完全可预测的；我们一直在力图消除过决策中的不确定性，现在却不得不思考如何与“不确定性”共处。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">我们清楚地是——<strong><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(188, 27, 18);">城市承载能力和理想目标</span></strong>；不清楚的是——<strong><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(188, 27, 18);">在多大程度上能够实现目标，如何更好地逼近目标。</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(188, 27, 18);">城市交通规划需要从单纯地在预测基础上制定方案，走向根据实际发展态势“适时响应”。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjtwbNofrBQlsoaf6vibPiaNoBo6BD6kvJM6zhicKB5QRYbP7nUyNTdpdZg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.8006329113924051" data-w="316"  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">及时发现与正确判断，是“适时响应”模式成功与否的关键。</span><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">变革需求之三：促成共识</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">城市交通规划与管理不应仅是管理者与“技术精英”的“二重唱”，而应该成为社会共同参与的“大合唱”。在此背景下舆情分析成为交通大数据研究的一个重要领域。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">通过信息共享形成对问题更加全面的理解，是形成管理共识的基础。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">变革需求之四：过程的可控性</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">我们并非不知道增长的极限，但是在无序地争抢属于自己的资源！</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjzVVKibHXtbZuGf4Ep9anYjSUxxicict3tM1vNO7cYribMFm7Zh4FiccZC1w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7018072289156626" data-w="332"  /><br  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;">我们不是不了解恶性循环的后果，但是缺乏摆脱“尾旋”的决心！</span><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">我们不是没有对美好家园的憧憬，但是缺少实现理想的资源管控机制！</span><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjibOpmSubQB1ahjJqvJZUEfGNKM1hoUXLY9xhTXMmicRL5wBFBjv2xVGQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5522682445759369" data-w="507"  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;"><br  />“要素”、 “杠杆” 和“体制框架”是规划过程管理所关注的最主要内容。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 20px; box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204);"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 7px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"><p style="color: inherit; text-align: justify; font-family: inherit;"><strong><span style="color: inherit; font-size: 16px;">决策支持，从“数据资源”到“决策能力”</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong>大数据所创造的观察能力</strong></span></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(10, 71, 28); line-height: 20px; font-size: 16px; border-left-color: rgb(10, 71, 28); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>大样本优势</strong></p></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">使得我们有可能整体把握态势与趋势，通过“模糊的正确”判断，避免小样本分析容易产生的“精确的错误” 。<br  /></span><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(10, 71, 28); line-height: 20px; font-size: 16px; border-left-color: rgb(10, 71, 28); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>连续追踪优势</strong></p></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">大样本使得我们有可能整体把握态势与趋势，通过“模糊的正确”判断，避免“精确的错误” 。</span><span style="line-height: 1.6;"><br  /></span><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 13px; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; color: rgb(10, 71, 28); line-height: 20px; font-size: 16px; border-left-color: rgb(10, 71, 28); border-left-style: solid; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong>多测度观察优势</strong></p></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">变换时间和空间观察尺度，可以发现系统所产生的长周期规律和随机扰动。</span><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="width:100%;border:medium none;margin-top:.5em;margin-bottom:.5em"><section style="width:40px;height:40px;float:right"><section style="width:1px;box-shadow:#666 -1px 1px 2px"><section style="border-width:20px;border-style:solid;border-color:transparent transparent #999 #999"></section><section style="margin-top:-38px;margin-left:1px;border-width:18px;border-style:solid;border-color:transparent transparent #f5f5f5 #f5f5f5"></section></section></section><section style="width:100%;border:1px solid #ccc"><section class="yead_bdc" style="width: 80%; height: 40px; line-height: 40px; border-bottom-width: 5px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-color: rgb(10, 71, 28); margin-left: 8px; font-size: 16px; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(42, 52, 58);"><section><strong>寸有所长、尺有所短</strong></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 10px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><p style="word-wrap: break-word; color: inherit; text-align: justify; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color:inherit"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">? </span>与传统数据相比，大数据具有大样本、多角度、连续观测的特点；</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">? </span>但是大数据并非“定制数据”，其精度、内容等受限于多方面原因，并不能达到传统概念基础上技术分析的要求；</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">? </span>简单地将大数据塞进传统分析技术框架，难免“削足适履”。</span></p></section></section></section></section><p><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjnmTUSicVvEPOPYQ9yMEZB01qTyQ2IJXJicz3Zd3hPhYBbyicLyPCMbMYA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.75" data-w=""  /><br  /><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjMNkxhjIzU05VX1mwQmJRGYZpSnw1UGxDUzPll7qWFcEVyicEF9C1INQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.75" data-w=""  /><br  /><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjia5ZRrYGIzSnujbfAr52wlBPHSDx7V7XllQpFibgsTtLibr9cgocJFt8Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.75" data-w=""  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="width:100%;border:medium none;margin-top:.5em;margin-bottom:.5em"><section style="width:40px;height:40px;float:right"><section style="width:1px;box-shadow:#666 -1px 1px 2px"><section style="border-width:20px;border-style:solid;border-color:transparent transparent #999 #999"></section><section style="margin-top:-38px;margin-left:1px;border-width:18px;border-style:solid;border-color:transparent transparent #f5f5f5 #f5f5f5"></section></section></section><section style="width:100%;border:1px solid #ccc"><section class="yead_bdc" style="width: 80%; height: 40px; line-height: 40px; border-bottom-width: 5px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-color: rgb(10, 71, 28); margin-left: 8px; font-size: 16px; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(42, 52, 58);"><section><strong>从“分析技术”到“决策支持流程”</strong></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 10px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><p style="word-wrap: break-word; color: inherit; text-align: justify; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color: inherit; font-size: 14px;">将技术、方法与管理决策相融合，我们需要一个流程框架，从而将相对独立的“技术部件”组合成为决策支持的“生产线”。</span></p></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 20px; box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204);"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 7px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"><p style="color: inherit; text-align: justify; font-family: inherit;"><strong><span style="color: inherit; font-size: 16px;">大数据与规划理论变革，需要多方协力</span></strong></p></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市交通管控的“战场建设”</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">大数据是一种战略资源！针对城市交通管控进行基础信息资源体系建设，不是一个技术层面的战术任务，而是一个政府为责任主体的战略管理问题能力建设！</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);"><p style="margin-right: 10px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span class="135brush" data-brushtype="text" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(127, 127, 127); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">技术平台的搭建，多方协力的成长过程</span></strong></p></section><section class="yead" data-width="100%" style="margin-top: -12px; margin-bottom: 30px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 25px; height: 2px; width: 506px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(10, 71, 28);"></section></section><p><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwjqkk1vQx9kOs20GQnsAbKzge5Jv4aKHzFU0zW1UX8lDbB6Yu0MvOg8w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5053956834532374" data-w=""  /><br  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">相对稳定的数据仓库，作为探索过程的应用系统，逐步提炼的“中间件”工具，组成一个成长性平台的构成要素。</span><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><section class="yead_editor" label="Copyright ? 2015 Yead All Rights Reserved." style=""><section style="width:100%;border:medium none;margin-top:.5em;margin-bottom:.5em"><section style="width:40px;height:40px;float:right"><section style="width:1px;box-shadow:#666 -1px 1px 2px"><section style="border-width:20px;border-style:solid;border-color:transparent transparent #999 #999"></section><section style="margin-top:-38px;margin-left:1px;border-width:18px;border-style:solid;border-color:transparent transparent #f5f5f5 #f5f5f5"></section></section></section><section style="width:100%;border:1px solid #ccc"><section class="yead_bdc" style="width: 80%; height: 40px; line-height: 40px; border-bottom-width: 5px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-color: rgb(10, 71, 28); margin-left: 8px; font-size: 16px; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(42, 52, 58);"><section><strong>不同类型的参与者，形成相互协同的推进组织</strong></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 10px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><p style="word-wrap: break-word; color: inherit; text-align: justify; line-height: 30px; text-indent: 2em;"><span style="color:inherit"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体;">? </span><strong>城市交通的战略实验室分析人员</strong>——他们的任务很像美国的战争实验室，并不承担具体武器的研发任务，而是根据对总体态势和趋势的研判，提出新的战略理念，确定未来的战争形态和方式，以此为基础确定所需要研发的武器装备。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体;">?</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体;"> </span>数据资源开发技术人员</strong>——他们很像新型武器的设计师，根据在原有基础上的继承与创新，不断提出新的解决方案。但是与第一类人员不同，相对聚焦于一个较窄的领域精耕细作，一般不会跨界工作。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体;">? </span><strong>大数据分析系统研发人员</strong>——他们很像军工企业中的技术人员，根据设计方案来实现具体系统。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋体;">? </span><strong>数据驱动的决策分析人员</strong>——他们是武器的操作员，也是与实际应用最贴近的技术人员。再好的分析工具离开了他们，也不能成为有效的战斗力。</span></p></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 14px;">综上，有待突破的技术瓶颈包括以下四方面内容：一是宏观与微观数据的链接；二是系统的“涌现”研究；三是分析方法从“建模”到“证析”的转变；四是从“关联”走向“因果”。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br  /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br  /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br  /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.399999618530273px;">注：本文根据演讲视频整理（点击“阅读原文”浏览视频），未经作者本人审阅.</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><img id="ledtxt.com" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/qAEVTTssxDcBJMz86egmAMTAKXhvxbwj53RSc5xDlKURsBHWq9231ekWCuic8auI8Qsiaq4pmkrWMC2pB13icAiajw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.4658273381294964" data-w=""  /><br  /></p><p><br  /></p>
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