面对重大危机:疾病、环境和能源等重要议题,需发挥好政府自上而下的顶层设计,并以持续的力度坚持遵循内在规律、排除制度障碍、激发基层动力。曾担任英国纽卡斯尔市市长的O'Brien博士以其亲身实践进行分享——地方城市项目成功的关键,在于获得中央政府长期的承诺和资金支持;未来推动城市变革及城市策略的有效落地,还需有赖于对具备专业素养和了解政府运作方式的人才的大力培养。
本期嘉宾 | Dr. Geoffrey O’Brien
英国诺森比亚大学副教授,曾任英国纽卡斯尔市市长,并于2019年从市议会退休。主政期间,通过能源政策的制定、低碳城市的建设与绿色环保技术的推广,使得纽卡斯尔市成为英国乃至欧洲最低碳环保的城市之一,在欧洲拥有崇高的声誉。其著有的《能源使用的未来》现已成为英国制定能源政策执行者必备的参考书目。在中国,还指导了青奥会·南京58公里的滨江风光带整治项目。
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对比中国和英国/欧洲,我们可以从应对COVID-19中吸取哪些可借鉴的经验?
我们了解到,COVID-19起源于动物群体,由于我们与野生生物的距离越来越近,未来类似的流行病可能会更加频繁。开始中国在公布此次传染病方面有一点滞后,这意味着感染了病毒的人仍有频繁的外出行动。而当中国政府意识到问题的严重性时,他们迅速采取行动并封锁了受影响的地区。随着疾病的传播,许多国家采取了同样的方法,例如,意大利、法国、德国等欧盟国家。英国行动有些迟缓,一开始决定采取“群体免疫”的方法,当科学家估计这将导致大约25万人死亡时,这一想法就被否决了。英国随后采取了许多国家都应用的社交隔离和封锁措施。
遗憾的是,英国没有做好充分准备——体现在个人防护设备(PPE)、重症监护病房(ICUs)和呼吸机的短缺上。据估计,如果英国采取更快的行动,目前超过4万的死亡率是可以大大降低的(采访时间:6月15日)。
目前,感染人数和死亡人数正在下降,封锁将在不久的将来得到部分解除。英国政府目前致力于刺激经济活动;并且非常关注开发“检测和跟踪”设备,以方便追踪未来的病例。有些人指出,可以使用世卫组织已开发的一个系统,而免于开发一个全新的系统。那么,我们能从整个经验中学到些什么呢?
第四,我们需要一个标准化的检测和跟踪系统。
世界各地都有记录显示,由于疫情的封锁,环境污染水平在持续下降。它给气候研究带来了哪些新机遇?
遗憾的是,随着封锁的缓解,污染水平已在上升,尤其是汽车尾气污染。在封锁期间,我们的确减少了能源消耗,但世界各国政府都渴望重启经济,这意味着能源的使用将会再次增加。能源供应商和生产商都希望将市场恢复到原来的规模。政府则寄希望于获得与能源相关的税收收入。目前的研究内容极大可能会继续下去,但我不认为最近的转变会鼓励有关于对气候变化的新研究。
世界各国政府都希望增加就业——这既增加了政府的税收收入,同时又减少了福利开支。许多国家政府都对流行病导致的国家债务增加感到担忧。因此,公共资金不太可能用于气候研究。商界可能会为这方面的研究提供资助——然而,更有可能出现的情况是,英国BP石油公司的计划将被交由其他的石油供应商和生产商,他们计划在十年内停止使用石油,并转向天然气和可再生能源。很可能其他国家也会这么做。不过,人们可能会对探索气候变化如何让动物和人类走得更近这一议题产生兴趣。
在制定关于促进可持续的《21世纪地方议程》政策时,有哪些实际挑战? COVID-19能为此提供什么新机遇吗?
我试图在纽卡斯尔推行《21世纪地方议程》,但是得到的支持微乎其微。我认为,原因是企业和个人需要看到由绿色议程推动的经济增长。大多数人认为,绿色议程将导致额外的成本。我们需要研究如何让绿色环保造福于每个个体和整个社会。COVID-19已经表明,环境可以改善,但目前社会关注的焦点在于许多人在封锁期间感到非常孤独。
英国的住房建筑标准是欧洲最低的。一般措施有提高隔热标准和引进可再生技术,如安装在屋顶的太阳能热水器和空气源热泵——这些类型的升级将由房主完成。但我们发现,由于成本高昂,人们普遍不愿这么做,认为收益会很低,并且气候变化在他们看来并不是问题。从下表可以看出,英国的自有住房比例非常低,大部分房屋都是租来的。一般改进措施应由房屋所有者来完成,市议会对改造事宜非常投入,在能力范围内尽了一切努力。然而,绝大多数其他房东只对租金收入感兴趣。简而言之,这是个问题。
诸如城市信息建模和能源使用云监控之类的平台如何有助于指导可持续城市的设计和发展。您能否分享在纽卡斯尔领导类似项目的经验?
当然,这样的模型可以促进可持续发展。我发现在纽卡斯尔领导项目非常具有挑战性。我最成功的一个项目经验是“社区新政”。主要原因是中央政府为该项目提供了长达十年的资金支持,我们才能够做出真正的改变。简而言之,我们需要政府的承诺和资金。但是,目前政府似乎不太可能提供真正的资金来支持我们城市进行重大变革。
这是社区新政的网站:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal_for_Communities
“社区新政”是以解决社会与空间不平等为目标的社区更新项目,该项目旨在用10年时间改造英格兰的39个贫困社区,每个社区容纳约9900人。每个地方重建计划的资金平均投入为5000万英镑。
社区新政区实施区域:2004“多重剥夺指数”(衡量地区相对贫困水平的指标)排名
在新政期间,我们达成协议建立一个慈善机构,在十年计划结束后继续新政的工作。我们把它命名为西部中心。我的董事会席位一直保留到2019年,直至我从市议会退休。
https://www.centre-west.com/
以下是国家对整个新政方案的评估:https://extra.shu.ac.uk/ndc/downloads/general/A%20final%20assessment.pdf
鉴于疫情可能无法在短期内得到控制,您如何预见其对城市工作和生活模式的影响以及相应的建筑环境设计变化?
很可能会有更多的人在家工作。这并不意味着企业的工作将停止,但这将预示着运输和商业需求可能会大大减少。这也可能意味着开发新商业空间的需求和升级运输系统的投资都会减少。从长远来看,城市居民住房可能会有更多的发展。例如,这将对学校和购物产生影响。城市的发展可能更倾向于以家庭为重心。
基于您作为学术带头人和城市领导者双重身份的丰富经验,您对未来培养具有领导才能和专业知识的年轻人的教育有何建议?
这是一个棘手的问题。在教育方面,我们需要更加关注环境问题。但是我们还需要让学生参与到各种环境类项目中来。同时,我们还需要确保对政府的运作方式有更深入的了解。例如在英国,几乎没有关于政府运作方式的教育。年轻人需要知道如何为他们想要开展的项目获取资金和专业力量的支持。这从来没有像人们想象的那么简单,了解整个运作过程非常重要。
Comparing China and UK/Europe, what would be the transferable lessons that we can draw from dealing with COVID-19?
What we have learned is that COVID-19 originated in the animal community and because of our increasing proximity to wildlife, similar pandemics are likely to be more frequent in the future. China was a little slow in making the pandemic public and this meant that people infected with disease were able to travel. When the Chinese authorities recognized the seriousness of the problem, they acted quickly and quarantined the affected areas. As the disease spread, many countries adopted the same approach, for example, EU nations such as Italy, France and Germany. The UK was a little slow and at first decided to adopt a “herd-immunity” approach. This idea was dropped when scientists estimated that this would lead to some 250,000 deaths. The UK then adopted the social isolation and quarantine approach that many countries had taken.
Sadly, the UK was not well prepared. There was a shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and ventilators. There are estimates that the current death rate of over 40,000 would have been much less if the UK had acted more quickly.
At present the number of infections and deaths is falling and the lockdown will be partially lifted in the near future. The UK government is very keen on stimulating economic activity. It is also keen on developing “Test and Trace” facility so that future cases can be easily tracked. Some have pointed out that WHO has a system and that it would make sense to use that as opposed to developing a new system. So what can we learn from this?
First, we need to ensure that further outbreaks of a pandemic are quickly made public.
Second, we should have a standard approach to dealing with an outbreak. It does seem that quarantine is a good approach. Nations should work through the UN and WHO to develop guidelines for dealing with outbreaks.
Third, we need to have guidelines of the levels of PPE that should be kept in storage.
Fourth, we need to have a standardised Test and Track system.
It has been recorded around the world that pollutions have been declining from pandemic shutdowns. What are the new opportunities it has brought about for climate researches?
Sadly, as lockdowns have eased, pollution levels have increased, particularly vehicle pollution. We did use less energy during the lockdowns but governments across the world are keen to restart economies. This will mean that energy use will increase. Both energy suppliers and producers will want to grow the market back to its original size. Governments will want the taxation income associated with energy. I do not believe that the recent shift will encourage new research into climate change. It is highly likely that current research will continue.
Governments across the world will want to grow employment – this both increases taxation income to government and simultaneously reduces welfare spending. Many governments are concerned about increasing national debt driven by the pandemic. So, it is very unlikely that public money will be made available for climate research. It may be the case that business might fund additional research. However, what is more likely is the plans that BP have will be taken up by other oil suppliers and producers. They plan to stop using oil in ten years. They plan a shift to gas and renewables. It is likely that others will do the same. However, there may be some interest in exploring how climate change can bring fauna and people closer.
What are the practical challenges for policy-making to promote sustainable Local Agenda 21? Could COVID-19 provide a chance for this?
I tried to implement Local Agenda 21 in Newcastle. There was little support. The reason I believe is that business and individuals need to see economic improvement driven by a green agenda. Most people perceive that the green agenda will lead to additional costs. We need to work on how being green will benefits individuals and society as a whole. COVID-19 has shown that environmental improvement can occur but essentially the focus has been on how lonely many people feel in lockdown.
How could platforms such as city information modelling and cloud monitoring for energy use contribute to guiding the design and development of sustainable cities. Could you share your experience of leading similar projects in Newcastle?
Yes of course, such models can contribute to promoting sustainability. I found leading projects in Newcastle very challenging. The one I was most successful was New Deal for Communities. The main reason was that central government providing funding over the ten years of the project, we were able to make real changes. In short, we need to have government commitment and funding. However, at present there seems little likelihood of governments providing real funding to support dramatic changes to our cities.
This the website for New Deal for Communities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal_for_Communities
During New Deal we agreed to establish a charity to carry on new deal work after the ten-year programme ended. We named the charity Centre West. I sat on the board until 2019 when I retired from the Council.
The following is a national evaluation of the whole New Deal programme:
https://extra.shu.ac.uk/ndc/downloads/general/A%20final%20assessment.pdf
It is likely that there will be a greater shift to home working. This does not mean that business placed work will cease. But it will mean that demand for transport and business may well reduce. This is likely to mean less demand to develop new business spaces and less investment in upgrading transport systems. In the longer term there may well be more development of city residential accommodation. That will have implications for schooling and shopping for example. Cities are likely to be more family oriented.
This is a tricky question. In terms of education we need to have a greater focus on environmental issues. But we also need to involve pupils and students in a variety of environmental projects. And we also need to ensure that there is a greater understanding of how governments work. In the UK for example, there is little education on how government works. Younger people need to know how they can access funding and expertise to support a project they might like to undertake. It's never quite as straightforward as one would think. Learning about process is important.
校对编辑 | 丁钰
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