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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfy3HOQjLvkuqUFy48pCgMWt5ucjgick38Tyr5jLJT8Toq1TjcuVeM5jAA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 70%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(153, 166, 171);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;">欢迎点击以上蓝色字体</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关注</p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfy3HOQjLvkuqUFy48pCgMWt5ucjgick38Tyr5jLJT8Toq1TjcuVeM5jAA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(254, 193, 192);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 4px;clear: both;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院硕士研究生薛峰，福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院副教授、院长助理李苗裔，福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院副教授马妍，中国城市规划设计研究院创新中心徐辉在《规划师》2020年第8期撰文，在快速城镇化背景下，我国建设用地无序扩张现象十分普遍，对国土空间开发的模拟与评估成为科学编制国土空间规划的重要依据。研究以江西省为案例，在评价江西省2010年后备适宜建设用地潜力的基础上，采用FLUS模型，对江西省2035年建设用地的扩张进行模拟，将模拟预测结果与后备土地资源潜力进行对比，在区县尺度上对2010～2035年期间江西省的国土空间开发走势进行评估，并提出差异化的政策建议。结果表明，江西省省域后备适宜建设用地主要呈“以南昌盆地为中心集聚，向省域外围逐步稀疏”的态势分布；面向2035年，江西省建设用地呈现出以南昌市为核心节点，以南昌市周边的抚州市、宜春市与上饶市为主要扩张区域的“点极式”扩张；在不进行任何政策约束的情况下，省域建设用地扩张表现为“整体较可持续，局部较不可持续”。</p></section><section style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(42, 118, 162);float: right;margin-top: -6px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 关键词 ] 江西省；建设用地扩张；模拟；评估；FLUS 模型</p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文章编号 ]1006-0022(2020)08-0012-08　</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 中图分类号 ]TU984.199　</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文献标识码 ]B </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 引文格式 ]薛峰，李苗裔，马妍，等．基于FLUS 模型的江西省国土空间开发模拟与评估[J]．规划师，2020(8)：12-19，32．</p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibWCnRAEsMdMqxtHuIGiansGjGuJYHs6VeicJ09g5J3ecO56JIk4iaYzV53MzsLaOgkicNrAtLbCsTSk3iazibEo9gSiaQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究方法</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）后备适宜建设用地潜力评价</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.技术路线</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文首先在参考已有文献及考虑评<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">价因子数据可得性的基础上，选取适宜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性评价因子并建立适宜性评价指标体系。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其次，对江西省全域先后进行自然地质</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的一级评价及区位潜力的二级修正，以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实现建设用地的适宜性评价。最后，减</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">除适宜建设用地中现状已建设的用地与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基本农田，得到省域后备适宜建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(图1)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9362187" data-w="439" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8sHLGW4Ctdib69lianrUaKEw3F4HW3kiciaHb0qKJzFxHhx0fCgOicetypgg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.评价指标选取与指标体系构建</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在众多的影响土地开发为建设用地<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的因素中，研究依据因素对建设用地适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜性的影响程度、因素的差异性、独立</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性及数据的可获取性，首先选取自然及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生态安全因素作为硬性评价指标，在此</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基础上选取社会经济及区位因素作为软</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性修正调整指标。最终，确定了以下几</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">种主要因素：地形坡度、水域、地质灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">害重度高发区、风景名胜区、自然保留</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地及交通条件、城镇影响力等(表1)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6143791" data-w="612" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8Ihm8kW2XtAf4954NupcVVAiaMhmVPica1RSfQrzTVtSe1vSWAiaS97vpw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.建设用地适宜性评价</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文在总结已有研究方法的基础上，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">首先依据自然地质条件筛选出城市建设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地的适宜等级，扣除依照相应法律法</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规严格禁止开发为建设用地的地块区域，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以及地质条件不适宜开发为建设用地的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地块区域，其他地块依据地形坡度条件，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">参考BP模型设定阈值，将地块划分为适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜、较适宜、条件适宜和不适宜四类。具</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">体评价指标选取及阈值设定如表2 所示。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4446023" data-w="704" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8q25zcbujrc1DTgUta00Hqn1HhS9fVX1OFKCbkJSTib3A2EJCdw3Y7GA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其次，依据交通、城镇影响等区位</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">因素对承载力结果进行适宜性调整。其</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中，交通因素的选取，主要是基于江西</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">省未来交通体系的规划，选取现状及规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划铁路以及现状及规划道路等各类交通</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设施的通达性。现有城镇的影响力，主</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要是考虑到现有城镇用地对于未来建设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地开发的空间临近影响。各因素的权</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重主要是参考未来江西省建设的战略部</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">署(表3)、各类交通自身的运输能力特点，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以及对于现状城镇建设用地影响的回归</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分析等来进行设置，按照指标综合，最</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">终得出各地区位开发潜力指数，并将区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">位潜力划分为三个等级：适宜、比较适宜、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一般。研究结合区位潜力等级，以及自</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">然环境适宜性评价等级，对江西省建设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地的适宜性进行了调整。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9713467" data-w="698" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8DXcTBYc70sEeQ48n56aUPvhfJexM6bdsHSk9Hxicj1kQUndpNianlX3w/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">4.后备建设用地潜力评价</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">传统意义上的后备适宜建设用地在<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">《省级主体功能区划分技术规程》中被</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">称为“可利用土地资源”，广义上指可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">被用于未来人口集聚、工业布局和城镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展的土地资源，能够客观反映不同区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">域对未来人口集聚、工业化和城镇化发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展的土地承载能力，侧重地区后备适宜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设用地总量的测度，但并没有考虑到</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">后备建设用地的需求主体——人的因素。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究结合人口因素，采用人均后备适宜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性建设用地，以更好地测算地区土地资</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">源丰富程度。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">后备适宜建设用地与人均后备适宜<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设用地的计算公式如下：</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9517241" data-w="290" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic84TrJaYCTI9V4aBhzyWAF4VOibY5DLgsMlS5pyzOf86sHLDicib6AFoiaXA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）基于FLUS 模型的建设用地扩张模拟</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">FLUS模型是用于模拟人类活动与自</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">然影响下的土地利用变化及未来土地利</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用情景的模型，耦合了自上而下的总量</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">预测模型与自下而上的元胞自动机模型，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">从而得到较高模拟精度的未来城市发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">形态，模拟流程如图2所示。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6412104" data-w="694" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8PHfS0JrwpiauTdK39uUenjHecS1lhHGGZ30mUvoC0HzTyvnZcQGsibTQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其中，总量预测模型能在模拟的每</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个阶段自上而下地控制元胞自动机的发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展，从而在全局上约束元胞自动机的空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间发展，纠正元胞自动机数量上和空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上的变化轨迹。而马尔科夫模型作为该</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">类模型的典型代表，由于具有无后效性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(在事件的发展过程中，系统的第n 次结</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">果状态只与第n-1次有关，与以前所处</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的状态无关)与稳定性( 在较长时间后，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">马尔可夫过程逐渐趋于稳定状态，而与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">初始状态无关) 特征，恰好符合土地利用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">变化规律，因此在相关领域得到了广泛</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应用。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">而人工神经网络算法(Artificial Neural </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">Network，简称“ANN”) 从一期土地</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">利用数据与包含人为活动、自然效应的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">多种驱动力因子(高程、坡度、交通及城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">镇影响力)中获取各类用地类型在研究范</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">围内的适宜性概率，并依次分为输入层、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">隐藏层与输出层。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">此外，FLUS模型提出一种基于轮盘<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">赌选择的自适应惯性竞争机制，能有效</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">处理多种土地利用类型在自然作用与人</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">类活动共同影响下发生相互转化时的不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">确定性与复杂性，使得模型具有较高的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">模拟精度并且能获得与现实土地利用分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">布相似的结果。此次研究采用自适应惯</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性系数来表征自适应惯性竞争机制 。而</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">邻域影响反映了城市周围单元与中心单</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">元的相互影响程度，表示邻域范围内用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地单元间的作用。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">综合各类用地类型在研究范围内的<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜性概率、自适应惯性系数和邻域影</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">响因子，可以确定各元胞的土地利用总</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">体转换概率，公式如下：</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9421222" data-w="311" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8QrGibQ96ZNVEfpy1icLvOBU6KK3FdpfSiasssr0Udw9Bic4b8efGEHVUkA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibWCnRAEsMdMqxtHuIGiansGjGuJYHs6VeicJ09g5J3ecO56JIk4iaYzV53MzsLaOgkicNrAtLbCsTSk3iazibEo9gSiaQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究框架</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文在评价江西省2010年建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜性的基础上，对江西省域2010年后</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">备适宜建设用地潜力进行评价，并利用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">FLUS模型，对江西省2035年建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的扩张情况进行模拟预测，将模拟结果</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">与后备土地资源潜力进行对比，从而在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区县尺度上对2010～ 2035年江西省的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土空间开发走势进行评估，最终提出</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">优化省域国土空间分配格局的差异化政</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">策建议(图3)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6536797" data-w="693" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8loRL7PVotJZd3ZIhaIRQyBbpVDwjHfLyYp2gnB8v1E7hsu2JmLODZw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibWCnRAEsMdMqxtHuIGiansGjGuJYHs6VeicJ09g5J3ecO56JIk4iaYzV53MzsLaOgkicNrAtLbCsTSk3iazibEo9gSiaQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">应用实例</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）研究区概况</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">江西省位于中国东南部，长江中下<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">游南岸。2017 年全省总面积为16.71万</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">平方千米，常住人口为4622.1万，下辖</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">11个地级行政区、100个县级行政区、1</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个国家级新区。江西省地貌类型以山地、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">丘陵为主，平原、盆地和谷地广布，省</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">内除北部鄱阳湖平原地势较为平坦外，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">东、西、南三面环山，中部丘陵和平原</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">交错分布。全省有大小河流2400余条，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">汇聚形成抚河、信江、赣江、修河和饶</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">河五大河系。研究区域土地利用结构类</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型多样，农用地比重较高，农用地中林</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地比重较大，建设用地比重较低。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）数据来源</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究使用的江西省1990年、2000<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年、2010年、2015年四期1︰25万土</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地利用图、基本农田矢量数据、1︰25</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">万DEM 数据、现状及规划的高速公路与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">铁路数据、省域及县域边界数据、地质</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾害数据、风景名胜区数据均来自中国</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划设计研究院创新中心。2010年</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">各县级行政区的常住人口数据来自中国</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2010年人口普查资料。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibWCnRAEsMdMqxtHuIGiansGjGuJYHs6VeicJ09g5J3ecO56JIk4iaYzV53MzsLaOgkicNrAtLbCsTSk3iazibEo9gSiaQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究结果</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）江西省后备适宜建设用地潜力评价</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.建设用地适宜性评价</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">江西省处于适宜建设等级的用地<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">面积为14591.06km2， 占省域面积的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.97%；处于较适宜建设等级的用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">面积为77918.83km2， 占省域面积的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">46.5%(表4)。虽然省域适宜与较适宜建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设用地面积总量达55.47%，但是适宜建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设用地的土地利用现状主要在农用地类</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型，且并不代表评价结果适宜性等级为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜的农用地都可以大量开发。可见，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">江西省可供开发建设的土地资源十分有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">限，存在结构性不足的问题。在实际开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发过程中要利用好这类土地资源还需协</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">调多方面的关系，诸如生态保护、耕地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">占补平衡、基本农田保护和林地保护等。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5338129496402878" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8Q107Hz5gIbicsJr73jcKmjjlDOprX1neg7fL6mcYcEJZdR3Zbq43TmA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="695" style=""  /></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">从空间分布角度来看，处于适宜建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设等级的用地基本分布在地势较为平坦</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的南昌盆地，总体上呈现“一群、两轴、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">三区、多点”的格局(图4)，其中“一群”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">指以南昌市为中心的城市群，“两轴”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">指北起景德镇市浮梁县，南至赣州市信</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">丰县的适宜建设轴和省域北部东西向的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜建设轴线，“三区”指南昌市适宜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设区、吉安—赣州适宜建设区和鹰潭—</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上饶—景德镇适宜建设区，与《江西省</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇体系规划(2015—2030 年)》提出的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“一群、两带、三区、多节点”空间布</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">局基本吻合。</span><span style="text-align: center;"></span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.1198569" data-w="559" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8vBUDVXeVXnyVCOickcaiaVuvwCqlBdlGfxPvrhX7bia868GumHdQC2KMw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.后备适宜建设用地潜力评价</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">江西省后备适宜建设用地的总面<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">积为12507.27km2，占土地总面积的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">7.49%。研究根据组内差异小、组间差</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">异大的分类原则，将江西省100个县</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">级单元的后备适宜建设用地面积分为小于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">50km2、50～100km2、100～175km2、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">175～275km2和大于275km2五个等级，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分别对应缺乏、较缺乏、中等、较丰富</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和丰富，其空间分布情况如图5-a 所示。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">总体上看，江西省后备适宜建设用地空</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">间分布特点为东北部多于西南部，地形</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">平坦地区多于地形崎岖地区。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6516432" data-w="1065" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8FBeeZ0yyfV9znRugxsE0MN4KZnDxZYic0UlY3Mg2GVOfw1T98rB2GsA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">可见，从后备适宜建设用地总量上<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">看，江西省存在9 个后备适宜建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">丰富的县级行政区，可利用土地资源面</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">积为2984km2，占全省可利用土地资源</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的23.86%，相对集中分布于南昌盆地与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">平原地区；存在16个后备适宜建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">较丰富的县级行政区，可利用土地资源</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">面积为3427.69km2，占全省可利用土地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">资源的27.41%，其空间分布较为广泛，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">散布于各个地级市；存在26 个后备适宜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设用地中等的县级行政区，可利用土</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地资源面积为3380.26km2，占全省可利</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用土地资源的27.03%；存在31个后备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜建设用地较缺乏的县级行政区，可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">利用土地资源面积为2297.95km2，占全</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">省可利用土地资源的18.37%，主要分布</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于省域外围的山地地区；存在18个后备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜建设用地缺乏的县级行政区，可利</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用土地资源面积为417.37km2，占全省</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">可利用土地资源的3.34%，主要分布于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">省域南端和鄱阳湖平原。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">同样，根据组内差异小、组间差异<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大的分类原则，将江西省100 个县级单</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">元的人均后备适宜建设用地面积分为小于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">100m2、100～235m2、235～355m2、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">355～510m2和大于510m2五个等级，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分别对应缺乏、较缺乏、中等、较丰富</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和丰富，其空间分布情况如图5-b 所示。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">与后备适宜建设用地总量的分布特征不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">同的是，人均后备适宜建设用地丰富的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地区在空间上较为分散，而不是仅集聚</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于鄱阳湖平原地带，这与鄱阳湖平原适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜居住、人口密度较大有关。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）江西省国土空间开发走势评估</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.模型精度验证</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">首先，根据江西省1990年和2000<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年的各类用地分布，利用FLUS模型对江</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">西省2010 年各类用地分布进行模拟预测，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">然后对比2010 年江西省各类用地分布的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实际情况，进行模型精度验证：首先引</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">入Kappa系数，计算得到总体精度可达</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">到0.9211，Kappa系数为0.8536，模拟</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">精度较高。其次，采用由Pontius 等人于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2008年提出的Fom系数，以此评价</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市增长部分的精度，计算得到模拟的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Fom系数为0.14，模拟精度较高，进一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">步验证了FLUS模型应用于预测城市未来</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地发展的可靠性。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.2035年建设用地扩张模拟</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究在自然地质条件约束下，对<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2035年江西省建设用地扩张进行模拟。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">首先以预测的江西省2035年的建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规模为目标，运行FLUS模型，经过迭代</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生成江西省2035 年的各类用地分布，并</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对建设用地、水域和非建设用地进行分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">类(图6)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2940039" data-w="517" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8r3eU7tLvsWXqqO2kuv8z8eLeRia2q4ynqr6xthFFTvVd0aBz4fRianiag/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">模拟得到，至2035年江西省建设<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地面积为4932km2，相比2010年的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">3956km2， 增加了24.67%， 呈现出以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">省域北部的南昌市为核心城市节点，以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">南昌市周边的抚州市、宜春市与上饶市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为主要扩张区域的“点极式”扩张模式，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其中抚州市的建设用地主要向西南部市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">辖区及市域西北部的崇仁县扩张；宜春</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市与上饶市的建设用地突破既有市辖区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">范围，“飞地式”大幅扩张，其中宜春</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市建设用地向市域中部的上高县与高安</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市扩张，上饶市建设用地向市域西北部</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的鄱阳县扩张。建设用地的扩张是人口</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">与产业集聚的表现，需要配套相应规模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的基础设施，以适应建设用地大幅扩张</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">后的人员出行及货物运输需要，因而针</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对2010～2035年建设用地扩张面积较</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大的地区(表5)，对其现状及规划交通基</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">础设施情况进行分析。分析发现，鄱阳</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">湖中部、临川区西南部及宜丰县、高安市、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上高县四地接壤处新增大量建设用地，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">却缺乏铁路或主要公路，且尚未规划交</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">通干线，难以满足人员出行与货物运输在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">物质载体上的需求，需要进行规划响应。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3447236" data-w="995" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8w7rODFkhHaXc1EB3QqhKBIiaRF8ye9VPS0J4ibklzclAx2TjAWuFNC9g/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">此外，省域南部地级市的建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">扩张规模普遍较小，这在一定程度上与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">江西省南部山地、丘陵广布，平原面积</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">较小有关；同时，省域南部的大量土地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">处于生态保护红线内，这些因素都限制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">了该地区建设用地的扩张。为了进一步</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">探索江西省建设用地扩张与可利用土地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">资源分布的在空间上的耦合关系，本文</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">从区县尺度出发对江西省国土空间开发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">走势进行评估。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2010～2035年后备适宜建设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地变化评价</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据后备适宜建设用地计算公式，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">得到江西省各区县经模拟的2035年后备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜建设用地情况(图7) 及2010～2035</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年后备适宜建设用地变化情况(图8)，可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">见从各县级行政区后备适宜建设用地变</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">化总量上看，2010～2035年绝大多数县</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">级行政区表现为后备适宜建设用地规模缩</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">减，其中后备适宜建设用地小于50km2</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的县级行政区从17个增加到了32个，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">且规模缩减的地区主要分布在省域中北</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">部的鄱阳湖平原地带，这主要与该区域</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地形条件较好、后备适宜建设用地较丰</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">富有关。一般来说，后备适宜建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的减少是土地城镇化的表现，因而江西</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">省绝大多数县级行政区未来将迎来新一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">轮的土地城镇化，而鄱阳湖平原地带为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重点开发建设区域，其中宜春市为开发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设的主要地级市。而期间西湖区、青</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">云谱区、浔阳区与珠山区表现为后备适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜建设用地规模扩张，这不仅与其现状</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">后备适宜建设用地总量稀缺有关，还与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通条件改善使得适宜建设用地面积增</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">加有关。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2926357" data-w="516" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8A2gBt5luO60KIdOstyotb5FPm93Oic3tAYFE9Fkj0tLVnXN9wCS0uZg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6752731" data-w="1007" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8bk5mqaKic8MEfp16iaB9qymlcwa1iaoC3ALSibJZa7hibBTFmxwu97e8h0Q/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">从各县级行政区后备适宜建设用地<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">变化比例上看，相比总量面积的缩减主</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要集中于鄱阳湖平原的现象，2010～</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2035年后备适宜建设用地大比例缩减或</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中等程度缩减的县级行政区在空间上较</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为分散，体现了以南昌市为核心的鄱阳</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">湖平原地带后备土地资源丰厚，大量后</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">备适宜建设用地的减少对其总体存量影</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">响较小。此外，全南县、安远县的后备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜建设用地总量仅小幅缩减，但由于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其本身可利用土地资源存量不足的问题，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对县级行政区来说，后备土地资源的大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">比例缩减，需要引起相关部门的注意，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">限制地方后备土地资源的开发。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">4.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2010～2035年省域国土空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">开发走势评估</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为了进一步评估模拟得到的江西省<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2010～2035年建设用地扩张结果，研</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">究将2010～2035年省域后备适宜建设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地变化方向与可利用土地资源本底进</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">行对比，从区县尺度对2010～2035年</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">江西省的国土空间开发走势进行评估。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一般认为，后备土地资源较贫乏的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地区，如未来该指标大比例或中等比例</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">缩减，则后备土地资源的利用表现为显</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">著不可持续；如未来该指标较小比例缩</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">减或扩张，则后备土地资源的利用表现</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为可持续。而后备土地资源较丰富的地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区，如未来该指标较大比例缩减，则后</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">备土地资源的利用表现为较不可持续；</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">如未来该指标中等比例或小比例缩减，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">则后备土地资源的利用表现为可持续；</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">如未来该指标扩张，则后备土地资源的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">利用较不合理。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据上述准则，研究耦合地区2010<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年人均后备适宜建设用地与2010～2035</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年后备适宜建设用地变化比例，从区县尺</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度评估江西省国土空间开发走势(图9)。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分析发现，在建设用地扩张上，87%的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">县级行政区表现为可持续，5% 的县级行</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">政区表现为较不可持续，8% 的县级行政</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区表现为显著不可持续，且表现为不可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">持续的地区在空间上较为分散。其中，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">全南县、宜黄县、乐安县、濂溪区、安远县、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上犹县、广丰区与青山湖区后备土地资</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">源较缺乏，但2010～2035年后备土地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">资源存在较大比例的缩减。此外，虽然</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上高县、宜丰县、安义县、安福县与鄱</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">阳县的后备土地资源较丰富，但2010～</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2035年后备土地资源大比例缩减。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.3954451" data-w="483" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic84Vib0j2kOzUeMsib3uCUNicwQVE7dc8UPNFFjQawOy1pW7QWgSK9DwqEw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibWCnRAEsMdMqxtHuIGiansGjGuJYHs6VeicJ09g5J3ecO56JIk4iaYzV53MzsLaOgkicNrAtLbCsTSk3iazibEo9gSiaQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 6px;margin-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2px;margin: auto;height: 16px;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2px;margin: auto;height: 16px;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="transform: rotate(0deg);margin-bottom: -5px;width: 5px;height: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 222, 3);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 222, 3);border-top-color: rgb(255, 222, 3);border-right-color: rgb(255, 222, 3);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(214, 240, 252);padding: 10px 10px 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结论与建议</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto;margin-top: -5px;width: 5px;height: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(226, 226, 226) 0px 16px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究在评价江西省2010年建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜性的基础上，对省域2010年后备适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜建设用地潜力进行评价。同时，采用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">FLUS模型，对省域2035年建设用地的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">扩张进行模拟，并将2010～2035 年江</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">西省后备适宜建设用地变化方向与可利</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用土地资源本底进行对比，从区县尺度</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对这期间江西省的国土空间开发走势进</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">行评估，得到以下结论：江西省省域后</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">备适宜建设用地主要呈“以南昌盆地为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中心集聚，向省域外围逐步稀疏”的分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">布态势；面向2035年，江西省建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">呈现出以南昌市为核心节点，以南昌市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">周边的抚州市、宜春市与上饶市为主要</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">扩张区域的“点极式”扩张；在不进行</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">任何政策约束的情况下，省域建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">扩张表现为“整体较可持续，局部较不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">可持续”。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">针对本文的研究结论，提出以下建议：</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 全南县、宜黄县、乐安县、濂溪<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区、安远县、上犹县、广丰区与青山湖</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区的后备土地资源较缺乏，但2010～</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2035年后备土地资源较大比例缩减，政</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">府管理部门应加以重视，在严格保护辖</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区内永久基本农田与生态保护区的基础</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上，严格控制城乡建设用地规模，以有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">效制止后备土地资源的流失。为了较好</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地管控城乡建设用地规模，应强化土地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用途管制，完善土地利用相关政策法规，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">从而规范土地审批，强化土地监管。在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">此基础上，还应着力盘活存量建设用地，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">并提高建设用地利用效率。具体来看，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一方面应加快推进城乡低效用地的再开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发，充分利用闲置土地，并统筹城镇地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上地下空间开发，推进建设用地的多功</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">能立体开发和复合利用，使城市有限的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">土地得以承载更多的人口；另一方面产</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">业用地作为建设用地的重要组成部分，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应重点保障同区域资源环境与发展条件</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">相适应的主导产业用地，对于占地大且</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">低效的产业应进行外迁、企业兼并重组</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">或直接淘汰。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 上高县、宜丰县、安义县、安福<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">县与鄱阳县的后备土地资源较丰富，但</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2010～2035年后备土地资源大比例缩</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">减，应引起土地资源管理部门的注意，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在逐步减少新增建设用地规模的同时对</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">低效的已建用地进行集约利用。具体来</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">看，应在严格保护辖区内永久基本农田</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">与生态保护区的基础上，与国民经济和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">社会发展计划、节约集约用地目标要求</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">相适应，逐步减少新增建设用地的计划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和供应。同时，由于地方存量建设用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">总量的快速增加，应对低效利用土地与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">闲置土地进行梳理，引导产业集群集聚</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展，并加大区域在创新方面的投入力</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度，包括加大研究与试验发展(R&D) 经</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">费投入、制定吸引高新技术企业开设与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高层次人才落户的政策。此外，政府应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">加快推行全面而彻底的土地有偿使用制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度，使土地资源在市场上能够自由流动。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 对于其余国土空间开发走势较可<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">持续的区县，后备适宜建设用地较丰富</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">或减少速度较慢，可适当增设高新技术</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">企业及服务于地方主导产业、特色优势</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">产业的相关企业，从而吸引人口集聚，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">激发地方活力，促进地方经济发展。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">同时，研究也存在一定的不足，在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">模拟2035 年省域后备土地资源时，模拟</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">结果主要参考的是历史趋势，并没有考</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">虑到2010～2035年期间不确定的政策</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">约束，这也是下一步需要提升的地方。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibWCnRAEsMdMqxtHuIGiansGjGuJYHs6VeicJ09g5J3ecO56JIk4iaYzV53MzsLaOgkicNrAtLbCsTSk3iazibEo9gSiaQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 2px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(181, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -5px 0% 5px;transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(252, 221, 93);padding: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(100, 100, 100);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">来源：2020年08期《规划师》杂志</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(181, 180, 180);height: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(100, 100, 100);line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新媒体编辑：刘晓莹</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">审读：王青</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">终审：杨一虹</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 5px;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: white;padding: 10px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》2020年08期</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《</strong>基于FLUS模型的江西省国土空间开发模拟与评估<strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;">》</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 24px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="float: left;margin-top: -1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-left: 23px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  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100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(117, 114, 114);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.8;padding: 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地址：广西南宁市青秀区月湾路1号南国弈园6楼</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">邮编：530029</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">邮箱：planner@21cn.net</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">网址：www.planners.com.cn</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">电话：0771-2438012</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">传真：0771-2436269</p></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8518519" data-w="837" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfyH7uDH8UGiaWhyiamicFUVxw1AgugSCcxdWsyQzWqrI0hiaHEKEM5yicOUVQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-left: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-top-color: rgb(21, 103, 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