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【城市研究】北上广深，谁打赢了过去5年的城市战争
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2016-04-26 00:00:10
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<div class="rich_media_content " id="js_content"> <p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayabmGeGHBaEYw7nDs8Ltc1ibHfROPX29rvBmeeJ7u1rXVtlyr0M7a41w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5377697841726619" data-w="" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><blockquote><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">文/刘晓博</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">来源：天天说钱（ID：liuxb0929）</span></strong></p></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>4月24日，深圳公布了2015年统计公报。至此，北上广深四大一线城市“2015年年报”披露完毕。</p><p><br /></p><p>过去5年（2011-2015）是中国的“十二五”，这个时间段具有一定的历史意义。那么，在过去5年里，中国内地四大顶级城市的竞争，到底呈现什么样的态势呢？我们不妨从“人”和“钱”两个角度进行一下总结。</p><p><br /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">一、人口争夺战</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 0.5em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(7, 99, 151); border-right-width: 1em; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(7, 99, 151); border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="width: 3em; height: 2em; margin-top: -2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><br /></section></section></section></section></section><p><br /></p><p>城市之间的竞争，说到底是人口的竞争。有了人，就有了一切。历史上，香港、上海的崛起无不如此。</p><p><br /></p><p>由于户籍制度日益僵化，人口流动性增长，中国目前有3亿人“人户分离”，这为每个城市的人口统计带来了困难。为了体现政绩（大城市有控制人口的任务，还要在人均GDP上争夺排名），官方的人口统计往往失真。因此，近年来我一直用小学在校生人数来研究城市人口增减。</p><p><br /></p><p>下面这个表格，是<span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">过去5年（从2010年年底到2015年年底）四大一线城市的官方公布的小学生人数和常住人口数字。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" data-sort="sortDisabled"><tbody style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td rowspan="2" valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></td><td colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">小学在校生人数（单位：万人）</span></p></td><td colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" width="246"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">常住人口（单位：万人）</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="108" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="39" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="96" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="68" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="105" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="62" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="57" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">65.3</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="92" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">85</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="76" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 122, 170); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">30%</span></strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1961</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="58" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2171</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="85" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10.7%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="57" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">70.2</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="92" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">79.9</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="76" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">13.8%</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2302</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="58" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2415</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="122" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="57" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">61.9</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="92" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">86.5</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="76" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 104, 39); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">39.7%</span></strong></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1036</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="58" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1138</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="122" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9.8%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="57" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">82.5</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="92" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">93.8</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="76" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">13.7%</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1270</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="58" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1350</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="122" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;" height="28"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.3%</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p> 从上述表格可以清楚地看出来，官方的人口数字基本上不靠谱。比如深圳，过去5年小学生人数增长了将近40%，但官方公布的常住人口只增长了10%。北京也是如此，差距非常大。广州和上海也存在较大差距。</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">如果从小学生人数来看，过去5年最具人口竞争力的城市是深圳，其次是北京。</span>这两个城市为第一阵营，人口实际增速都超过了30%。上海和广州差不多，增速都没有超过14%。<span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">在2015年，上海小学生人数在近年来首次出现下降，显示实际人口有所减少，这跟上海产业调整有密切关系。</span></p><p> </p><p>由于上海小学普遍是5年制，所以折算成6年制的小学生人数为96万人，总量仍然是四大城市第一，广州第二。深圳已经超过北京，位居一线城市第三位。但深圳人口增速极为迅猛，“在园幼儿”过去一年增长了10%，明显快过小学招生人数。<span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">按照目前增长速度，深圳小学生人数将很快超过广州和上海，位居全国第一。</span>（重庆小学生人数高于四大一线城市，但它基本上是一个省，而且人数是不断减少的）</p><p> </p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">换句话说，过去5年里在人口竞争上，深圳夺得了冠军，北京夺得了亚军，是胜利者。而上海和广州，则是这场人口争夺战的弱者。</span></p><p> </p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">二、资金争夺战</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 0.5em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(7, 99, 151); border-right-width: 1em; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(7, 99, 151); border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="width: 3em; height: 2em; margin-top: -2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"></section></section></section></section></section><p><br /></p><p>GDP是一个中国式的笑话，这已经毋庸多言。<span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">那么怎样用一个简单的指标衡量一个城市的竞争力和发展潜力，我认为是“资金总量”，也就是“金融机构本外币各项存款余额”。</span>近年来，我一直力推这个指标，用它来观察城市竞争力，这个研究方法正在被越来越多的人接受。</p><p> </p><p>下表是过去5年四大城市“资金总量”和GDP的关键数据。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" rowspan="2" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></td><td width="225" colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">本外币存款余额（单位：万亿）</span></p></td><td width="226" colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">GDP</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">（单位：万亿）</span></span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010年</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015年</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td><td width="41" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010年</span></p></td><td width="55" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015年</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.7</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">12.9</span></p></td><td width="79" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">93%</span></p></td><td width="82" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.38</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.3</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">67%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.2</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10.4</span></p></td><td width="79" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">100%</span></p></td><td width="82" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.69</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.5</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">48%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.02</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.8</span></p></td><td width="79" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">187%</span></p></td><td width="82" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">0.95</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.75</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">84%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.4</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4.28</span></p></td><td width="79" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">78%</span></p></td><td width="82" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.06</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.81</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">70%</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p>从2015年开始，央行统计“金融机构本外币各项存款余额”的时候改变了口径，将非银行金融机构纳入，这改变了以前的排行榜。最大的赢家是深圳、上海、南京等城市，它们之前被隐藏的实力开始显露出来，优势更加明显。</p><p> </p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">可以看出，过去5年资金争夺战的最大赢家是深圳，手里的钱增长了187%；其次是上海，增长了100%</span>；北京跟上海差不多，但总量上的优势非常明显。<span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">最差的是广州，从5年前是深圳的1.2倍，变成了目前只有深圳的74%。</span></p><p> </p><p>过去5年里，中国的广义货币M2从72.6万亿增长到了139.2万亿，增速是92%。很显然，深圳、上海、北京跑赢了M2，而广州没有。其实，这就是广州楼市明显弱于北上深的重要原因。</p><p> </p><p>GDP可以做一个参考，这个指标的最大赢家仍然是深圳，增长了84%。上海增速最慢，只有48%。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; padding: 5px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">三、商业和楼市</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 0px; border-top-width: 0.5em; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(7, 99, 151); border-right-width: 1em; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(7, 99, 151); border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; border-left-width: 1em !important; border-left-style: solid !important; border-left-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="width: 3em; height: 2em; margin-top: -2em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373);"></section></section></section></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></p><p>最近有研究者指出，深圳在2015年有一个指标大幅落后，这就是“社会消费品零售总额”，只增长了2%。而北上广的增速分别是7.3%、8.1%和11%。<span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">有人据此认为，房价上涨过快，剥夺了深圳人在衣、食、行等方面的开支。</span></p><p> </p><p>换句话说，2%的超低增速，显示出深圳房奴是全中国最苦逼的。</p><p><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">但他们忘记了一点，深圳是2014年12月29日开始汽车限购的，2015年汽车销量被腰斩。</span>这就是出现2%超低增速的主要原因。此外，深圳快递业务增速也明显快过北上广，显示有越来越多的深圳人喜欢网购，这样分流了购买力。</p><p> </p><p>最近楼市比较火爆，四大城市的统计公报里也给出了房屋供应量的关键数据，值得我们关注。先请大家看下面的表格：</p><p> </p><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">四大一线城市商品房供应量</span></strong></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></td><td width="120.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">商品房施工面积（万平米）</span></p></td><td width="92" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">住宅施工面积</span></p></td><td width="124" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">商品房竣工面积</span></p></td><td width="119" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">住宅竣工面积</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</span></p></td><td width="106" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">13095</span></p></td><td width="85" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6315</span></p></td><td width="103" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2632</span></p></td><td width="98" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1378</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</span></p></td><td width="127" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">15095</span></p></td><td width="106" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8372</span></p></td><td width="124" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2647</span></p></td><td width="119" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1589</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</span></p></td><td width="127" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4978</span></p></td><td width="106" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3157</span></p></td><td width="124" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">360</span></p></td><td width="119" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">202</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州</span></p></td><td width="127" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9346</span></p></td><td width="106" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5760</span></p></td><td width="124" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1511</span></p></td><td width="119" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; max-width: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">981</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">从上面提到的小学生人数，我们知道北上广深四大城市实际生活人口差不多，都在2000万以上。但无论是房屋施工面积、竣工面积，我们都可以发现，深圳明显是个“侏儒”。</span>从2015年竣工的住宅看，只有北京的6分之一，上海的8分之一强，不到广州的4分之一。事实上，这是最近10多年的常态。这也就解释了为什么深圳房价涨幅最大。</p><p> </p><blockquote><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">综上所述，我们可以得出这样的结论。在过去5年的城市战争中，深圳、北京是最大的赢家，在“人”和“钱”的争夺上都获得了胜利；上海比较中庸，在“钱”上得意，在“人”上失意。</span></p><p><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">至于广州，在“人”和“钱”上都不如意，所以被认为已经从“一线城市”里落伍了。</span></p></blockquote><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayibXnH8nic8mvMHkc858b5ChI3MP9EBzDTHKA0DSfA7FbvicEKJEdkgWiaQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5053956834532374" data-w="" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-left-width: 5px; border-left-style: solid; line-height: 1.5em; padding-left: 5px; border-left-color: rgba(88, 179, 224, 0.831373); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(32, 146, 239); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>延伸阅读：<span style="font-size: 18px; color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北上广深哪个城市过得更潇洒</span></strong></span></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-left: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style=" box-sizing: border-box; "><section><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">文/何明科，知乎专栏“数据冰山”</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">北上广深哪个城市会让我们过的更潇洒一些呢？接下来用数据的方式，从我们老百姓的角度，通过衣食住行等方面对这四个一线城市进行深入的剖析。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6;"><br /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 128, 255); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 128, 255); line-height: 1.6;">城市热度</span></strong></span><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3Nay1HAeavg3r4nJBJsZEZukmDficgUqgndg2ibMTanThcVDQAPR69rcbTPQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.45137614678899085" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">首先通过百度指数来衡量四个城市的热度，可以看到<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">北京和上海城市热度难分伯仲，牢牢占据前两位。</span>深圳和广州热度在12年以前相互交替，12年以后，深圳已经完全超越了广州，近年来大有赶超北京和上海之势。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">这个数据和我们老百姓有什么关系，我们要看身边的数据！</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">下面就从“衣”开始说起。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">衣</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NaysC0HygkpdYatgOnCbp8bfoFnPA9QeLiaz449qia5yrotMjJLeyk5ibhyA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.6825688073394496" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">一座城市的购物便捷度往往也是城市魅力的表现形式之一，种类繁多的服饰以及低廉的价格通常更能俘获城市居民的芳心。我们根据公式商铺密度=（综合商场数+各类服饰店面数+品牌折扣店数）/城市常住人口数统计出居民购买服饰的便捷程度。从上图我们可以看到，<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">上海购买服饰最便捷，而购买的均价也较高。广州和深圳购买的价格较为低廉</span>，这也跟广州和深圳作为全国最大的服装批发聚集地的身份相吻合。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">食</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayUiancn90u6j931se6pMXhzJQmCFtybqbiankohbeqYmI8sGcl0jXyiaFA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.6605504587155964" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">人们喜欢一座城市，总是逃离不了“美食”二字。这里，我通过每万人餐饮店数量和人均消费额来衡量4个城市的餐饮情况。可以看到，<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">深圳居民吃饭最便捷，上海居民吃饭最不易。</span>对比之前的服饰类消费数据，作为消费水平最低的城市，相信广州人民看到这里后幸福指数瞬间暴增。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">住</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayhpOWMta5OvyL3aJ3MeZicAZhVbwDSxLD1NBQ83cPic3gEd8f0iaH1m62Q/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.5376146788990825" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">一谈到房子，作为在一线城市打拼的人来说满满都是泪。上图表示15年以来北上广深二手房的房价变化趋势（新房对我们而言纯粹是奢望，此处不予讨论）。可以看到，深圳房价从2015年3月份开始，以火箭般的速度异军突起，接连超越北京和上海，傲视群雄。北京和广州受到深圳房价的影响，在之后的二三个月内房价也相继上涨，随后又回落。上海的房价则是在10月份开始上涨（这反应速度也够慢的），是否也会像另外三个城市那样2个月后回落呢？广州的房价和他的“衣食”指标相吻合，位列四个城市最低水平，看来最幸福一线城市桂冠属于广州人民啦！</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>行</strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayTFMG0O8dtiaLoI33EChqd7ic8qIIbg9x36VRRnPMA6ETgMbvMOL2Nl9w/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.6568807339449542" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">交通作为一个城市的重要组成部分，关乎城市居民的出行便捷程度。上图可以看到，<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">上海无论从城市公交线路，还是城市间的交通便捷度上都具有明显优势，深圳的出行便捷度上则远远逊于其他三个城市</span>，这应该和深圳的城市面积以及所处的地理位置有很大关联。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayicGJNfXJy9VBHy5WMI1gwYmpy531tibzm0U2iaVDYaMqRbpxwyZFibMDWQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.5357798165137615" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">从15年以来北上广深机票折扣率分布可以看出，各地机票价格变化趋势基本一致，3月份无疑是最划算出行的时间。深圳的机票折扣率远低于其他三个城市，从这点看来，深圳人民无疑是幸福的。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayEjSjasQdDDVib80VRTOTl9orCibAQqW0wyHch3f3zibZTWZ4Ud2lcWmAg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.6275229357798165" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">除了公共交通，私家车对于在城市里生活的人们来说无疑也是衡量幸福感的重要指标之一。目前北上广深均采取了限牌的策略，而想要获取车牌，目前只有摇号和竞价2种方式，我针对15年10月份四个城市2种方式的车牌申请情况进行了统计（0表示该城市没有此种申请方式），广州无论从中签率还是竞拍均价上再次展现出了满满的幸福感。上海近乎8万的竞拍价格令所有国人唏嘘不已，或许这就是国际大都市该有的气质吧。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">气候</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayGmNfGEd1BcRgN4e8I3JFGcb9HcfNkGPU6UaDw2CWsjaajx8Rn8QeSQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.710091743119266" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">“你在北方的炕头上裹着貂，我在深圳的艳阳里露着腰”这句话成为了深圳人民调侃近段时间深圳高温天气的口头禅。上图分别表示14年北上广深最低和最高温度的分布情况，同时我把最适宜人体的温度：25度用红色横线标识出来。可以看到，红色横线落于最高和最低温度之间区域最多的城市是深圳和广州，而这两个城市最低气温常年均在10度以上，人们完全看不到雪花飘零，皑皑白雪的美景，对于喜欢冬天和下雪的朋友来说北京或许是最好的选择。相反，广州和深圳则是有大约6个月左右时间平均最高气温都在30度以上，桑拿天或许这又是北方城市无法体会的感觉。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayO9efqp3E8o7KgMgH8zgxplE6JZ6SVicw12F0ExK55icnIrGZxX3rhkpA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.7321100917431193" data-w="545" /><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">蓝天数近年来成为了衡量一个城市空气质量好坏的指标，可以看到，作为南方海边城市的深圳遥遥领先于其他几个城市，或许选择深圳作为养老的地方是个不错的选择。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">医疗</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3Nay8ViaVCtllv8CkrylMXyHcOK0G8ztcA0T48ibfbLzaNc0ic8Q2w72OCIxw/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.7064220183486238" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">从上图我们可以看到，<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">北京每万人拥有医院数量和医生数量均遥遥领先于其他三个城市</span>，较为集中的医疗资源，被国人戏称为“全国看病中心”。而相比较其他三个城市，深圳的医疗资源则显得相形见绌，医疗资源的增长速度完全赶不上特区的发展速度。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">教育</span></strong></span></p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/raykBSCslW4otlHyHjqprmq3grqk3NayaMIHnL4YEicRwMbYGozjeawMHjZliaXpgOONuoptibHsUXiaFIaiaRQMNuQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.6623853211009174" data-w="545" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">根据互联网上发布的全国小学500强，中学100强的名单以及高等院校的分布情况，统计出北上广深的教育资源分布情况。可以看到，<span style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(255, 104, 39);">北京集中了最多的优秀教育资源</span>，皇城根下的人们好生让人羡慕，深圳则再次垫底，傲娇的房价，薄弱的民生基础建设，真是令无数深圳人欲哭无泪！</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">每个城市都有自己魅力所在，以上分析只是从我们生活的方方面面让大家对北上广深有一个更深入的了解。我们不能妄自评判孰好孰坏，毕竟没有最好的城市，只有最适合自己的那座城市。</span><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br /></p><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 1em; line-height: 25.6px; text-align: inherit; white-space: normal; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); border-color: rgb(171, 87, 94); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: 15.9943px; width: 24px; float: left; 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