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北上广深，谁打赢了过去5年的城市战争？
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2016-04-24 00:00:47
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<div class="rich_media_content " id="js_content"> <p><br /></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">文｜刘晓博</span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family:宋体"><span style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">本文选自微信公众号天天说钱，已获作者授权</span></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family:宋体"><span style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今天（</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">24</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日），深圳公布了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年统计公报。至此，北上广深四大一线城市“</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年年报”披露完毕。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年（</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2011-2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">）是中国的“十二五”，这个时间段具有一定的历史意义。那么，在过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年里，中国内地四大顶级城市的竞争，到底呈现什么样的态势呢？我们不妨从“人”和“钱”两个角度进行一下总结。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-align: center; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一、人口争夺战</strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市之间的竞争，说到底是人口的竞争。有了人，就有了一切。历史上，香港、上海的崛起无不如此。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">由于户籍制度日益僵化，人口流动性增长，中国目前有</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">亿人“人户分离”，这为每个城市的人口统计带来了困难。为了体现政绩（大城市有控制人口的任务，还要在人均</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上争夺排名），官方的人口统计往往失真。因此，近年来我一直用小学在校生人数来研究城市人口增减。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">下面这个表格，是过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年（从</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年年底到</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年年底）四大一线城市的官方公布的小学生人数和常住人口数字。</span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100" data-sort="sortDisabled"><tbody style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td rowspan="2" valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></td><td colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">小学在校生人数（单位：万人）</span></p></td><td colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">常住人口（单位：万人）</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="108" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important;">2010</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="121" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important;">2010</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="105" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important;">年</span></span></p></td><td valign="top" width="123" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="108" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">65.3</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">85</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="121" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">30%</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1961</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="105" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2171</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="123" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10.7%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="108" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">70.2</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">79.9</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="121" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">13.8%</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2302</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="105" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2415</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="123" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="108" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">61.9</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">86.5</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="121" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">39.7%</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1036</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="105" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1138</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="123" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9.8%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td valign="top" width="70" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="108" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">82.5</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">93.8</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="121" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">13.7%</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="104" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1270</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="105" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1350</span></p></td><td valign="top" width="123" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.3%</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span><br style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上述表格可以清楚地看出来，官方的人口数字基本上不靠谱。比如深圳，过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年小学生人数增长了将近</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">40%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，但官方公布的常住人口只增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。北京也是如此，差距非常大。广州和上海也存在较大差距。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">如果从小学生人数来看，过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年最具人口竞争力的城市是深圳，其次是北京。</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">这两个城市为第一阵营，人口实际增速都超过了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">30%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。上海和广州差不多，增速都没有超过</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">14%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">在</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年，上海小学生人数在近年来首次出现下降，显示实际人口有所减少，这跟上海产业调整有密切关系。</span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">由于上海小学普遍是</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年制，所以折算成</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年制的小学生人数为</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">96</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">万人，总量仍然是四大城市第一，广州第二。深圳已经超过北京，位居一线城市第三位。但深圳人口增速极为迅猛，“在园幼儿”过去一年增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，明显快过小学招生人数。<strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">按照目前增长速度，深圳小学生人数将很快超过广州和上海，位居全国第二。</strong>（重庆小学生人数高于四大一线城市，但它基本上是一个省，而且人数是不断减少的）</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">换句话说，过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年里在人口竞争上，深圳夺得了冠军，北京夺得了亚军，是胜利者。而上海和广州，则是这场人口争夺战的弱者。</span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-align: center; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">二、资金争夺战</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 32px; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">是一个中国式的笑话，这已经毋庸多言。<strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">那么怎样用一个简单的指标衡量一个城市的竞争力和发展潜力，我认为是“资金总量”，也就是“金融机构本外币各项存款余额”。</strong>近年来，我一直力推这个指标，用它来观察城市竞争力，这个研究方法正在被越来越多的人接受。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">下表是过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年四大城市“资金总量”和</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">的关键数据。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100"><tbody style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" rowspan="2" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></td><td width="249" colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">本外币存款余额（单位：万亿）</span></p></td><td width="186" colspan="3" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important;">（单位：万亿）</span></span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010年</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015年</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td><td width="114" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2010年</span></p></td><td width="26" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015年</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">增减幅度</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6.7</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">12.9</span></p></td><td width="114" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">93%</span></p></td><td width="26" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.38</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.3</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">67%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.2</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">10.4</span></p></td><td width="114" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">100%</span></p></td><td width="26" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.69</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.5</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">48%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.02</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.8</span></p></td><td width="114" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">187%</span></p></td><td width="26" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">0.95</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.75</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">84%</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.4</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4.28</span></p></td><td width="114" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">78%</span></p></td><td width="26" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.06</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.81</span></p></td><td width="81" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">70%</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年开始，央行统计“金融机构本外币各项存款余额”的时候改变了口径，将非银行金融机构纳入，这改变了以前的排行榜。最大的赢家是深圳、上海、南京等城市，它们之前被隐藏的实力开始显露出来，优势更加明显。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">可以看出，过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年资金争夺战的最大赢家是深圳，手里的钱增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">187%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">；其次是上海，增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">100%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">；</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京跟上海差不多，但总量上的优势非常明显。</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">最差的是广州，从</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年前是深圳的</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">倍，变成了目前只有深圳的</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">74%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年里，中国的广义货币</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">M2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">72.6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">万亿增长到了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">139.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">万亿，增速是</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">92%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。很显然，深圳、上海、北京跑赢了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">M2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，而广州没有。其实，这就是广州楼市明显弱于北上深的重要原因。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">可以做一个参考，这个指标的最大赢家仍然是深圳，增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">84%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。上海增速最慢，只有</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">48%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-align: center; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">三、商业和楼市</span></strong></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">最近有研究者指出，深圳在</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年有一个指标大幅落后，这就是“社会消费品零售总额”，只增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。而北上广的增速分别是</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">7.3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">、</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">和</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">11%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); max-width: 100% !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">有人据此认为，房价上涨过快，剥夺了深圳人在衣、食、行等方面的开支。</strong></span></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">换句话说，</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">的超低增速，显示出深圳房奴是全中国最苦逼的。</span></strong></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但他们忘记了一点，深圳是</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">月</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">29</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">日开始汽车限购的，</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年汽车销量被腰斩。这就是出现</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">超低增速的主要原因。</span></strong></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">此外，深圳快递业务增速也明显快过北上广，显示有越来越多的深圳人喜欢网购，这样分流了购买力。</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">最近楼市比较火爆，四大城市的统计公报里也给出了房屋供应量的关键数据，值得我们关注。先请大家看下面的表格：</span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-align: center; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">四大一线城市商品房供应量</span></strong></p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100"><tbody style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></td><td width="83.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">商品房施工面积（万平米）</span></p></td><td width="57.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">住宅施工面积</span></p></td><td width="75.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">商品房竣工面积</span></p></td><td width="79.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">住宅竣工面积</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京</span></p></td><td width="90" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">13095</span></p></td><td width="63.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6315</span></p></td><td width="81.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2632</span></p></td><td width="79.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1378</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海</span></p></td><td width="90" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">15095</span></p></td><td width="63.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8372</span></p></td><td width="81.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2647</span></p></td><td width="79.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1589</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">深圳</span></p></td><td width="90" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4978</span></p></td><td width="63.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3157</span></p></td><td width="81.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">360</span></p></td><td width="79.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">202</span></p></td></tr><tr style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><td width="64" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州</span></p></td><td width="90" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">9346</span></p></td><td width="63.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5760</span></p></td><td width="81.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1511</span></p></td><td width="79.33333333333333" valign="top" style="padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all; border-top-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">981</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上面提到的小学生人数，我们知道北上广深四大城市实际生活人口差不多，都在</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">万以上。但无论是房屋施工面积、竣工面积，我们都可以发现，深圳明显是个“侏儒”。</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39); max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年竣工的住宅看，只有北京的</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">分之一，上海的</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">分之一强，不到广州的</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">分之一。事实上，这是最近10多年的常态。这也就解释了为什么深圳房价涨幅最大。</span></strong></span></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 25.6px; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></p><blockquote style="line-height: 25.6px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">综上所述，我们可以得出这样的结论。在过去</span><span style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年的城市战争中，深圳、北京是最大的赢家，在“人”和“钱”的争夺上都获得了胜利；上海比较中庸，在“钱”上得意，在“人”上失意。</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">至于广州，在“人”和“钱”上都不如意，所以时不时会被媒体唱衰。</span></strong></p></blockquote><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; text-indent: 32px; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">【版权声明：本文为刘晓博原创作品，公众号转载此文时，需要在正文前署名，并同时转载文后的二维码，否则视作侵权。】</strong></span></strong></p><p style="min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; max-width: 100% !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img id="ledtxt.com" width="auto" data-ratio="0.5050505050505051" data-w="198" data-type="jpeg" data-s="300,640" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/oTlGPStu59GZ2lD6zey69ELu1Ho7Km66zbMhuKjtflpLhicUQLL76FNK4FW7QAbHWEQmbibSou9RTglANcAgdxlA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="height: 100px !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: auto !important; visibility: hidden !important;" /></p> </div>