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<section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;padding-right: 9px;padding-left: 9px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 10px;border-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(246, 221, 215);border-right-color: rgb(246, 221, 215);padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(32, 14, 11);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作　者</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">郑莎莉　</strong>中山大学中国区域协调发展与乡村建设研究院，中山大学地理科学与规划学院 </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">郎　嵬　</strong>中山大学中国区域协调发展与乡村建设研究院，中山大学地理科学与规划学院副教授</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">指导老师</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">李　郇　</strong>中山大学中国区域协调发展与乡村建设研究院院长，中山大学地理科学与规划学院教授、博导</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">版权说明</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">：感谢作者授权发布，如有转载等事宜，请联系原作者。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">【导言】新型工业化是新型城镇化的持续动力。自2014年政府提出“机器代人”政策后，珠江三角洲制造业的自动化进程开始加速。新技术与传统工业的结合会对生产和工人带来什么影响？这些影响是否会改变该地区改革开放以来以“农民工潮”为特征的农村城镇化进程？改变的动力机制如何？2020年初，李郇老师等发表在China Economic Review上一篇题为《Transition from Factor - to Innovation-driven Urbanization in China: A Study of Manufacturing Industry Automation in Dongguan City》的文章，以世界工厂——东莞为例，讨论了上述问题。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(226, 226, 226) 0px 16px 1px -13px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">下面是对这篇文章内容的提要，有兴趣的读者可以下载原文进一步阅读。《China Economic Review》由在美国注册的中国留美经济学会（The Chinese Economists Society）在1989年创办，主要刊发以中国经济为研究对象的原创性论文，是所在经济学领域最具影响力的权威期刊之一。该刊每年发行4卷，约90篇论文；在最新一年的JCR分区中，该期刊隶属于经济学大类的Q1分区，影响因子为2.1。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(53, 129, 74);display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0.1em 0.3em;background-color: rgb(53, 129, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1、东莞“机器代人”：行业间的自动化程度和替代率差异较大</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">基于2015-2019年间对电子制造、纺织、服装、制鞋、家电制造、家具制造、光学制造、仪器仪表制造、机器设备制造和汽车及零部件制造等11个行业29家企业进行实地调研所获取一手资料和数据，该文总结出东莞“机器代人”的行业分布特点：</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">不同行业实施“机器代人”的程度存在差异。</strong>尽管“机器代人”已经成为东莞制造业的普遍现象，但在不同行业的分布情况仍存在异质性。如下图所示，通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业是实行“机器代人”企业数量最多的行业，其次是金属制品业和塑料制品业。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4602888" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB785pM9SUTJUfgicBpEy4iceQDPtRbDm5CatQ2ng2wOEkGSB1Q5tvEPyYncm9k2ia94NDlVMWQLr7ibiaBQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.57);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图 “机器代人”企业行业分布</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">东莞“机器代人”替代率为16%，替代率具有行业异质性。然而，并不是实行“机器代人”程度越高的行业，自动化替代率就越高。自动化替代率指的是引入自动化设备后被替代的劳动力占所有劳动力的比重。因此，自动化替代率意味着“机器代人”对劳动力就业机会的影响。从下图可以看到，东莞制造业的自动化替代率约为16%。替代率最高的行业是通用设备制造业、金属制品业、橡胶制品业（如下图所示）。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.482821" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB785pM9SUTJUfgicBpEy4iceQD3bOZdhKxwzMDNZSfibtu5pM7CAv9vWteFoyRcq0tnT5beQNRFMfqMpA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="553" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图 分行业“机器代人”替代率</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(53, 129, 74);display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0.1em 0.3em;background-color: rgb(53, 129, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2、成本、技术和市场是自动化驱动产业升级的三种主要模式</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">以上“机器代人”的行业差异和自动化替代率行业差异反映出一个现象，即自动化在不同行业存在较大的异质性。那么，是什么导致了这种异质性的存在？作者认为，不同行业发展的主导因素决定了“机器代人”的行业表现差异。下面，作者从成本、技术和市场三种主导要素出发，分别以纺织服装、电子信息和家电制造行业为案例，说明三种不同模式下的“机器代人”过程及其对产生升级的影响。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">纺织服装行业是在成本驱动下实施“机器代人”的典型行业。近年来，东莞“一工难求”愈发严重，最低工资逐年上涨。对成本敏感的A企业从德国、日本等国家购买了8台电脑横机，代替了约180名工人，劳动力替代率高达90%。目前，工厂仅需20名工人为机器上下料并处理简单的机器故障，所需技能水平下降，而生产效率比之前提高了5-6倍。“机器代人”的结果是传统工人被替代，操作机器的工人所具备的技能下降。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">作为知识密集型产业，电子信息行业对行业技术变化十分敏感。</strong>迫于成本和产品精度要求，B企业实施“机器代人”替代了流水线工人，并在自动化过程中因为电子信息行业与自动化行业的技术邻近，逐渐分化出一个部门专门研发机器人，之后还与机器人四大家族企业联合成立了机器人公司，既节约了成本、提高了产品精度，还完成了从生产到研发的功能链条升级。“机器代人”的结果是，具有中等技能的流水线工被替代，而企业中具备设备维护、流程改进等高技能的劳动力数量提升。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">家电行业产业链较容易受到来自市场端的影响。</strong>为了适应快速变化的市场，C企业实行“机器代人”降低成本，还通过流程改造，涉足以大数据实时分析为基础的透明生产和智能物流。“机器代人”的结果是，中等技能的流水工人被替代，节约了44%劳动力，而具有一定编码能力、数据处理技能的劳动力数量增加。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">以上三种“机器代人”模式，都通过引入自动化技术降低了成本，但由于各行业的主导因素差异，自动化与其生产结合的程度存在异质性。“机器代人”造成的结果是，以劳动力成本为导向的行业，劳动者技能水平往往下降，而技术和市场主导的产业会逐渐形成中等技能劳动力被替代，高技能劳动力增加的情况。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(53, 129, 74);display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0.1em 0.3em;background-color: rgb(53, 129, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3、自动化将地区城镇化动力从农业劳动力转变为创新，推动新型城镇化进程</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">“机器代人”是驱动新型城镇化的新动力。改革开放之初，大量农村剩余劳动力涌入城市，成为东莞“世界工厂”中的小小螺丝钉，快速推动了城市化进程。然而，过度依赖“土地红利”和“人口红利”的“要素驱动”型城镇化发展模式也逐渐显露弊端。一方面，“机器代人”以对制造业中流水工人的替代，促使地区逐渐摆脱对人口红利的过分依赖，推动地区劳动力质量的整体提升。另一方面，“机器代人”推动了以技术进步和创新为特征的自动化和智能化产业在珠三角的扎根，吸引和培养高技能劳动力成为社会未来的发展模式，为城镇化发展提供了新鲜动力。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box;">欢迎引用：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box;">Li X., Hui E. C., Lang W., Zheng S., Qin X. Transition from factor-driven to innovation-driven urbanization in China: A study of manufacturing industry automation in Dongguan City[J]. China Economic Review, 2020, 59: 101382.</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box;">原文链接：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box;">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X19301439</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">初审：李郇</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">审核：刘晔</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">终审：邓孺孺</strong></span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style=" margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%; box-sizing: border-box; " powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: 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