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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7472222" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsjuuIIosicpicCwKCoD1OTDSrDmxKTibvK5N8bSpicJiaM0XSz2fmgFQUzrA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20%;vertical-align: top;border-top: 2px none rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(255, 129, 36);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 124, 6);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文需阅读 - 33分钟</p></section></section><section style="margin: 20px 0%;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 60%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgba(95, 156, 239, 0.69);background-color: rgba(228, 105, 11, 0.57);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-shadow: rgba(228, 105, 11, 0.82) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(232, 76, 32);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一览众山小</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgba(228, 105, 11, 0.57);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(232, 76, 32);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sustainable</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgba(228, 105, 11, 0.57);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(232, 76, 32);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Cities &</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgba(228, 105, 11, 0.57);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(232, 76, 32);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mobility</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px solid rgb(179, 179, 179);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(179, 179, 179);padding: 0px 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划与发展战略</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 124, 6);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市综合交通</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">公共交通与非机动化出行</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">活力街区、街道与城市设计</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">量化城市与大数据</span></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 124, 6);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">「」</strong></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;padding: 0px 5px;color: rgb(255, 124, 6);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2020年<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">|5</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">月20日期</span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 40%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;font-size: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;box-shadow: rgba(228, 105, 11, 0.82) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7074074" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyy3ZE5ibDpF7KP19kZha8HYTNY29Hz7WQXmQ3TPqGTicSZXWvFUMxFxxRg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 50%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ibibocSdNHQ43S5YicUaQyvW4LvH5M0iaV5QRkEuH7xQFwxWWBmjYzvcmxFFDwUo6hVCnCnvqLZrubGPk1ZUicGUoPA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 50%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ezAHicuos15mDWZcqtnUTDxic7VibGtG5DkgtGRRUD95nia1lrvCjn96NQefxVA7Zq4yBSiag24YMF8reUlTYicS8xQQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="gulangu" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 30px;border-width: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sUlzkh8mwTIpYkWanQ4nkjXpbbEQthGTUe1wM5HJ4wsARdw9t78QrSdlHMX27PL68PobkmDPyR1krWLmPtl8aw/640?wx_fmt=gif");background-position: 50% -1.30435%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 92.1671%;background-attachment: scroll;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-style: solid none none solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(225, 63, 78) rgb(225, 63, 78) rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 3px 0px 0px 3px;flex: 30 30 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-style: solid none none solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(225, 63, 78);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;margin: -15px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(241, 233, 230);letter-spacing: 3px;line-height: 1.5;padding: 0px;text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 0px -0.8px, rgb(181, 24, 43) 0px 1px, rgb(181, 24, 43) 0px 2px, rgb(181, 24, 43) 0px 3px 1px, rgb(149, 50, 45) 0px 5px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">团队成员</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;flex: 30 30 0%;border-width: 1px 1px 0px 0px;height: auto;border-style: solid;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(62, 62, 62) rgb(62, 62, 62);padding: 3px 3px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-style: solid solid none none;border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(225, 63, 78);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 3px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-width: 0px 1px;border-left-style: solid;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-left-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right-style: solid;border-top-right-radius: 0px;border-right-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 0px 12px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px -30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyRSFRjrYnBe87BFuJFNBYqTb1kzyU2aBlibeq6c3Qp2ic3Fw187s8kcicg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px -30px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyTOpibhsddSasaNDGSa8ExiczsNPHNm0KkNXYjicNg1Lh4GPeGppv2E29A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px -30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyy2t1XAomKHekaxLWAR6GybbCjia8nNn1A2Jcm3tZJGTloSyyVOYXjeoQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px -30px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyiavSSK8CMVvaoEuuDibYxKccI2Z2ZycjeM6rl6arlpWjL7zm8QlM1Zvw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px -30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyiagVJ5icr2oGicU4vLB10iajaniaGZWlBr0iah29q8eicJdGSa0Fev4FqUaWA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px -30px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9962406" data-w="266" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyym9ibAuws1SjCvzMKiag3qKXDqpq228dIJViaS9qKwNJ2MZr0BaEMoYQYA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px -30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9851301" data-w="269" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyy6tibcbXibFlIQmwo55fHLLKaCY6G4UIJX8a6hN3MVkbiaxSHen5DzCTZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px -30px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyydicmxpvJP3nTtpSh4IFHd0Op77RsErticsC5t8k1TTlvG4IsZ9XpQOLQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px -30px;box-sizing: 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0;border-style: double;border-width: 4px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyPHp3kI2dewSh55zKtrYWeP34ib6icmcib6ZPustkVaqicUgQpyxQku92eQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 20px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(121, 206, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">原文/</strong></span>经合组织国际交通论坛</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(121, 206, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">翻译/ </strong></span>徐珵、顾宇忻、刘艺玺、张乐怡</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">林中朴、旦增衮布、刘志广</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">朱雪莹、高广达、张书婧</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(121, 206, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">编辑/</span></strong> 众山小  <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(121, 206, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">校核/</span></strong> 徐珵<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(121, 206, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">文献/ </span></strong>臧晓琳   <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(121, 206, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">排版/ </span></strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">徐颖</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">微博 | weibo.com/</span></p></section></section></section></section><section style="transform: rotateX(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-style: solid solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(225, 63, 78);padding: 3px 3px 0px;line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-style: solid solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(255, 255, 255) rgb(225, 63, 78);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 15px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/ZmvPn14KRJwZakyDasibGPuYGq8SpTjhPEdC62HCCia4VeHaibSMEYwxhAuysPGEeNSK8frt5icpHicWsQONOgUCPqA/640?wx_fmt=png");background-position: 25.8037% -43.1473%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 29.7866%;background-attachment: scroll;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 20px 0% 16px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0px -1.85em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 0.3em;margin-top: 0.3em;background-color: rgb(159, 163, 174);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 0.3em;margin-top: 0.3em;background-color: rgb(159, 163, 174);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 0.3em;margin-top: 0.3em;background-color: rgb(159, 163, 174);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;line-height: 2.3em;background-color: rgb(255, 179, 179);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 15px;padding-right: 15px;font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 2.3em !important;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一览导读</p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">共享化的趋势下，对于城市未来交通发展的影响几何？共享出行服务的普及是否能切实改善城市拥堵、环境污染等课题？本文中，国际交通论坛（ITF）借助其多次论证的区域交通特征研究模型，通过数据采集、调查研究、焦点小组等多种形式在里昂都市区（LMR）进行仿真模拟，并深入探索了不同场景下，共享出行模式替代传统出行方式的可能性和可行性，为未来城市共享出行服务提供发展依据。</p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-shadow: rgb(170, 170, 170) 0px 0px 10px inset;border-color: rgb(192, 200, 209);padding: 10px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;background-color: rgb(250, 250, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: center;letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文为OECD的国际交通论坛（ITF）于2020年发布的第4篇以城市为基础的共享出行仿真模拟报告。<span style="color: rgb(0, 162, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请后台留言联系我们索取）</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/bo9tNCHliagRv05HFvOCspmicWnLParGeDG2jc8xRHpCF4dLWxZic46ta9yoNgg4zDbk3ybx5EPpDfU1E8q2eQxTQ/640?wx_fmt=png");background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat-x;background-size: 3.39425%;background-attachment: scroll;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(255, 255, 255) 0%, rgba(255, 255, 255, 0) 50%, rgb(255, 255, 255) 100%);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;justify-content: flex-start;margin: 0px 0% -20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 1px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-color: rgb(208, 199, 240);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(-20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(208, 199, 240);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 4px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(141, 113, 229);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 3px;padding: 0px;text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px, rgba(141, 113, 229, 0.5) 2.3px 2.3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二、里昂都市区（LMR）特征研究</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 8px;transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(208, 199, 240);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;margin: -20px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 1px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-color: rgb(208, 199, 240);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">里昂都市区（LMR），行政上又称大里昂地区，覆盖土地面积约534平方公里（其中里昂市区的面积为48平方公里）。本研究采用的人口统计年份为2015年，该年该地区人口为134万。其中人口稠密的地区位于里昂市区（居民数量为513275）以及一些大型住宅楼和独立式住房混合的城郊地区。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0149095" data-w="939" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsLQwP2f26q6uficbmXsqBicyE68F7aHq85ppBTuic9bmfCKicAHMgvemzhA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图七、人口分布图（2011）。数据来源：French Census，2015；I图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">里昂地区大部分就职机会位于城市中心及其周边地区（如La Duchère地区）。公共交通较好地连接了大部分工作区域，而且大部分人都会使用公共交通通勤。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0154004" data-w="974" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDslhseVfO2TwNO3qYiavJOVL5Y2wcxzkTWdUS6Zkm3XECZl7exg3x2L9g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图八、</strong></em><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">就业分布图（2011）。数据来源：French Census，2015；图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为了加快共享出行模拟模型的速度，研究区域被氛围七个功能分区，并由25条单向廊道连接。在这些廊道上，出行者共享出行的可能性很高，尤其是在乘坐小型巴士的情况下。每条廊道上的行程分配优化同时进行。图九显示了这些分区及其常用名称。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015年，里昂都市区平均一个工作日内出行量为320万次 。其中80万发生于7：00到10：00的早高峰时段（构成全天出行量的26%），100万发生于16：00到19：00的晚高峰时段（构成全天出行量的27%）。大部分出行都使用私家车（42%），其次为步行（38%）和公交出行（18%），如表2所示。里昂市区内出行模式比例有些许不同，其中开车出行占17%，而非机动车出行占61%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">每天早晨有超过15万人涌入里昂市中心，而这一数字在接下来的几年内还会持续增长。这些通勤主要是通过开私家车（34%）和乘公共交通（39%）的方式完成的，这意味着超过一半的人乘公共交通进入市中心。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">道路网络在里昂都市区的客运交通中至关重要，尤其是对于公交覆盖率较低的城市外围地区。有一些区域高速公路连接到里昂都市区，包括A42，A43，A46，A532以及A450，并将车流分配在都市区内部。全国路网中的A6和A7将里昂与其他地区连接起来。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0058997" data-w="1017" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsYY7fIIshUhH1n6w27Memc2CKUq0NP01yAIl9piaK8GsrRze5wZYqZNQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图九、仿真模型中应用的里昂都市区分区。图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">自1990年代，里昂都市区的交通规划部门就开始鼓励由私家车出行向公共交通出行以及步行和骑行的转变（Sytral，2017）。这一计划是宏大的，而且大里昂区规划局成功的使里昂与阿姆斯特丹和哥本哈根一起被列为非机动车出行模式比例最高的欧洲都市区。该地区打算在未来继续加强非机动车出行模式的大量应用，并且将理想的出行模式比例从城市中心向城郊地区推广（大里昂地区，2016）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表2、里昂都市区出行模式分布，2015（%）</strong></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1227586" data-w="725" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsV8VJOeY07wo4jqA6YJC4pm5kicbF0icicd1axeDQg8hLJUVeFLq00Yd9w/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据来源：基于里昂都市区出行调查，并由ITF计算</strong></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在过去的几十年内，大里昂地区一直在扩建并完善其公共交通设施和服务，加长路段，增加车站并提供大的轻轨网络以外的新交通选择。在法国，里昂的公共交通网络体量仅次于巴黎，并且每天为170万乘客提供服务（Sytral，2017）。整个系统由Sytral for Transports en Commun Lyonnais (TCL)进行公共管理，由Sytral或其他特许运营商运营。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">里昂市公交车网络由私人运营商Keolis Lyon运营。这一网络包括超过140条公交线路以及9条轻轨线路，服务于里昂市和大里昂地区。这一网络包括常规线路以及特殊服务。里昂主要的公交网络围绕编号为C1到C26的线路建设；补充线路编号为2至100；特定及特殊线路在部分社区运行，为特定活动及学校服务；以及四条夜班线路（Pleine Lune）在大学开学期间，周四至周日凌晨1：00到4：00运行。这一系统还包括四条名为ResaGO的灵活（on-demand）线路，这些线路在人口较为稀疏的区域运行。此外，还有一个为视障及残疾人士设立的灵活公交网络，名为Optibus。这一网络每天（除五月一日）6：00到1：00运行，服务于里昂都市区、东里昂的公社以及城市交通范围内的其他七个城市。这一系统也由Keolis运营。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">里昂的铁路服务也隶属于全国和区域交通系统，但是这一出行模式并非通勤者常用的（Sytral，2014）。里昂最初的轻轨网络于1879年设立，于2001年重建并升级。目前，这一系统有六条线路（五条城市线路以及一条连接城市和机场的线路，名为Rh?nexpress）。这一系统总张为66.3km，设有11个站点。目前有扩建第六条城市轻轨线路（6.7km，设14个站点）的计划（Sytral， 2017）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以铁路为基础的网络也隶属于Funiculars of Lyon(Funiculaires de Lyon)，这一网络最初包括五条缆车线路。这些线路中只有两条在Fourvière山上的还在运行中。其他线路都已关闭、改为行车道或合并进里昂的地铁系统。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">里昂的地铁线路总长32.1km，设有40个站点。已有计划将强化这一系统，并扩建至里昂市区以外的区域。这一项目将会持续到2030年。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="align-items: center;display: flex;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 0 1px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 0 1 auto;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;line-height: 0;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 9px;height: 9px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-color: rgb(255, 222, 23);border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px 0px inset;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 0 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 4px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(141, 113, 229);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 3px;padding: 0px;text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px, rgba(141, 113, 229, 0.5) 2.3px 2.3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三、当前出行需求模拟</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 8px;transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(182, 162, 246);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;margin: -20px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 1px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-color: rgb(182, 162, 246);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这一章节展现模拟当前出需求的主要步骤。这些步骤包括输入准备、出行选择模型假设以及自住户出行调查所揭示的偏好数据估计的结果，还有应用其生成综合人口样本的方法。本章节还将模型结果与出行调查数据进行对比。图十呈现了不同数据来源及最终出行需求之间的额关系。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">准确评估新型共享模式的影响的第一步，是尽可能详细地模拟地区当前的移动性情况。模型应用住户出行调查所得的偏好数据来生成“综合移动性样本”，或称“综合人口样本”。调查参与者的社会人口特征代表综合人口样本的特征，样本的家庭组成及其出行模式将被视为总人口的特征。出行模式基于模式选择模型所得概率进行定义。这些样本重现了该区域一个典型工作日内个人出行模式的全部情况。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6333333" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyYPCmualJPD0P2RnNCf9JO5YDzEA9RjK9oFr9J6r1kfmic6ux0m2dSTg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十、</strong></em><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">出行需求模拟步骤（当下和将来）</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图片来源：ITF（2017a）</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">模型输入</strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;box-sizing: border-box;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以下步骤用于准备模式选择模型的输入以及生成综合人口样本：</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">划分研究区域，并将出行调查、人口统计以及用地数据赋予空间单元。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">定义能够代表总体的出行调查参与者样本以及模型应包含的出行模式。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为每个参与者定义可选择的出行模式；计算每个可选模式的属性（出行时间、出行成本等），并以总出行时间为基础计算每种模式的最短路径。</p></li></ul><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为呈现出行的空间分布，本文应用两种规格的网格对研究区域进行了划分。如图十一所示，本文在两个层级上对该区域的空间分辨率进行计算：里昂市区和里昂都市区的其他区域。最低的网格分辨率为500 m × 500 m，整个里昂都市区被划分为2,045个网格。最高的网格分辨率为200 m × 200 m，仅应用于里昂市区。里昂市区被划分为2,386个网格。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些网格将服务于多种模拟目标。这一网格系统连接了居住数据，综合人口样本的出行出发地和目的地，以及出行选择的建立。200 m × 200 m的网格用于在综合人口样本的生成和吸引模型中，更精准的定位里昂市中心内的出发地和目的地。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2014年里昂都市区区域出行调查L’Enquête Déplacements de l’Aiere Métropolitaine Lyonnaise (Sytral, 2014)所得数据用于模拟该区域当下的移动性情况。为避免模型结果偏差，某些调查反馈在模式选择模型校正过程中被去除。被去除的反馈如下：</p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;box-sizing: border-box;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">年龄在18岁以下及65岁以上的参与者，我们假设他们并非模式选择的决策者。这些参与者的数据包含在综合人口样本中，但是不包含在模式选择模型中，因为他们的出行方式选择通常依靠同一住户中的其他成员。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">汽车乘客未被包含在模型中，因为他们并不需要权衡出行成本。这些参与者的数据包含在综合人口样本中。未选择开车完成调查中所示行程的人和/或驾照信息不完整的人的反馈也被去除。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">居住在研究区域外的参与者的反馈在综合人口样本和模型中都被去除。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行程起点或终点位于研究区域外的数据在综合人口样本和模型中都被去除。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">出行模式违反了可选限制的行程数据在综合人口样本和模型中都被去除。</p></li></ul><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">去除以上数据后，37125份调查数据中的36971份应用于模式选择模型校正中。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">能够代表当下出行状况的交通模式包括步行和骑行等主动模式、私家车、公交车以及公共交通模式（公交车、地铁、铁路及轻轨）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">应用以条件为基础的，根据行程模式构成定义的主要模式，多模式行程被集合成单一行程，定义方式如下：</p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;box-sizing: border-box;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">步行 （若行程全部由步行完成）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">骑行（若行程全部由骑行完成）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">私家车（汽车，摩托车司机或乘客，若行程中无通过公关交通完成的行段）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">铁路（若行程中没有使用私家车，且乘坐火车的行段机动车旅行中最长的行段）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公交车/大巴车（若行程中没有使用私家车，且乘坐公交车的行段为机动车旅行中最长的行段）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">汽车+公共交通（若通过私家车和公共交通模式（铁路）两种方式出行）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">轻轨（若行程中没有使用私家车，且乘坐轻轨的行段为机动车旅行中最长的行段）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">出租车（若行程全部乘出租车完成，或用私家车和出租车两种方式完成行程的情况下，乘出租车的行段较长）</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地铁（若行程中没有使用私家车，且称作地铁的行段为机动车旅行中最长的行段）</p></li></ul><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9281768" data-w="724" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsUQwSAz2SibGA3e753kzDsNH0QkoKZuZsmeIEY8GoDCdpRM06Auh8neg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十一、研究区域不同空间分辨率的划分。图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">包含飞机旅行或其他不包含在上述模式中的出行方式的行程被归类为“其他”，或被去除。外来交通，如过境交通以及游客，未被包含在模型中。步行往返公共交通站点分别代表“进入”和“退出”。私家车也是可选的“进入”方式，模型假设返回的行程使用同样的交通方式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究区域的General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS)文件是定义模式选择样本（即可选模式）以及计算模式属性的主要输入数据。对于每一个行程，模式选择样本的生成都遵循如下规则：</p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;box-sizing: border-box;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">若起点和终点的距离小于等于3千米，则步行是可选择的模式</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">若距离不大于6千米，则骑行是可选择的模式</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">若距离大于0.5千米，则出租车是可选择的模式</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">无驾照人员不可选择私家车出行模式</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">若从起点到第一个公共交通站点步行距离不超过1000米，最后一个公共交通站点到目的地距离不超过1000米，换乘站之间距离不超过250米，则可选择公共交通出行模式。</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">汽车+公共交通模式只有在出行人员持有驾照，且形成满足如下条件时才可选择：公共交通模式是铁路或地铁；乘坐公共交通的距离不小于1.5千米；公共交通行段不需要换乘；公共交通站点到目的地的距离不超过1千米。</p></li></ul><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">可选每种出行模式的参与者比例如表3所示。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表3、模式可选性（参与者百分比）</strong></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1412358" data-w="793" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsR2q3ld61YribjfJtdnbz0tucec9coBbZXoPu2aFEDOaAIrsHsbGVUdA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于GTFS数据，本研究计算了每个参与者行程的起点和终点以及对于每个模式而言可选的最短路径（根据总出行时间）。这使计算每个行程的出行模式属性成为可能。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于使用公共交通出行的行程，本研究计算了总出行时间，车内行程时间，总进入和退出时间，总出行成本（以2014年的价格为准）以及换乘次数等属性。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于汽车出行而言，以出行时间衡量的最短路径是通过计算网格中所有的网格之间的出行时间得出的。这一计算中使用的行驶速度是网络平均拥堵程度（50%）的结果（通过对每一个连接进行车流量除以每小时的车流容量的计算）。道路网络包含每个连接的信息，并因此成为以上计算的基础。本研究所用道路网络以经过验证，确保每个节点都被连接。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于调查喜好数据的模式选择模型结果</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这里通过上文所描述的输入，来标定本节所用的多项分布出行模式选择模型。该模型能够明确人们选择每种交通方式的原因，包括出行自身属性和影响每个人决策的社会人口特性。标定后的效用函数能够计算出每个个人对不同交通方式的选择概率。表4所示为模型参数和标定结果。参数包括共有的出行时间，以及不同交通模式各自不同的系数。模型得到的选择显著倾向于步行和私家车，这两种方式的出行替代比常数都较高，这也使得模型的拟合度较高（ρ方值为0.58）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表4、模型参数估计结果</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8372703" data-w="762" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsXt9YaoAG2BkcUnT77ZV0l8dRPx8HicwpJJvvc4q2MZH0IrcpJkibG3Iw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">模型标定结果中，公交出行和私家车出行的时间成本分别为10.2欧元和13.79欧元。这与近期法国2010年公布的10.0欧元全国平均通勤成本，以及巴黎大区在2014年得到的12.9欧元成本较为一致。公共交通若存在一次换乘，则增加7.89分钟的“惩罚性时间”，同时等待时间在模型中的“惩罚性”将是通勤时间的两倍。公交使用者认为，等待时间只相当于通勤时间24%的价值，也与此有关。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表5、出行调查数据与模型标定结果的不同交通模式分配比较</strong></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6452005" data-w="823" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsn5hViax7jUNn94tKP6883G45zpjn4EFUWo5YlMaXLaGmzt62WaplhBg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">通过将模型结果与作为模型输入的调查数据之间进行比较，对模型进行了验证。比较结果如表5，包括选择每种方式的人数和其对应的百分比。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">比较结果表明，模型与现有数据在模式共享上较为契合。即便在使用比例较低的一些交通方式上，模型也以较高的精度反映了目前人们的交通模式选择行为。在乘客-公里数方面，模型略微高估了公交的使用，而低估了步行。需要说明的是，这里的结果并不包含调查数据中已被剔除的部分。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口数据生成</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口生成模型得到仿真所需的家庭数据包括：家庭人数和家庭成员的属性，家庭成员的活动和出行方式。此生成模型考虑到了家庭成员之间的关系，以及私家车保有情况。模型来源于以下基础：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;box-sizing: border-box;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口普查数据。人口普查数据在空间上被分为小的网格，每个网格内的人口数据，根据每个网格区域在人口调查中的比例来划分；</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于人口-地理特性得到的出行模式调查数据，并基于这些调查数据标定得到的交通方式选择模型。调查数据中的出行模式数据包括出行目的，离开到达时间，是否从家出发或到达以及每个受访者的扩展系数。交通方式选择模型包含每种交通方式的效用函数系数，该系数主要用于计算选择每种交通方式的概率；</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地使用数据。该数据基于每个方格区域内不同类型活动（活动数据来源于出行调查，分为38类）所涉及到的企业，机构和福利设施。企业和机构的数据来源于Sirene数据库，其它设施的数据是从OpenStreetMap 数据库抓取。福利设施包括办公室，饭店，酒吧，商务店铺，旅馆，购物中心，医院，教育设施，文化娱乐场所等。调查数据中不同类型活动包括：上班的主业工作，上班的副业工作，下班后的经营，教育，购物，软件服务，个人服务，医疗，社交，娱乐，陪伴朋友以及半夜暂住别处，或是回家。这些活动被分为9类，并与各自的设施相关联。</p></li></ul><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通调查中的每个被调查者，都依据各自的扩展系数来实现对全体人口的模拟。对每个被调查者，本文所用的代理人模型会生成结构化活动数据，包括日常出行（工作，上学等）和其它个人选择的出行（购物，娱乐，社交等），每种活动附有相应的时间。从模型里生成的个体的活动模式，与调查数据中“源头”个体的模式保持一致。出行的性质，包括起点终点，出发时间，时长和交通模式，是根据原始“源头”数据，再加入一定的随机因素。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口生成模型在整个区域内总共得到876,549个有出行的人（居民总数1,339,534），每个工作日平均产生3,119,307次出行。可以算出每位居民的出行率为2.33。这样的出行率在2012年的中高收入城市中，例如维也纳，都灵，新加坡和温哥华，属于较为平均的水平。模型生成的人口并不包括非居住人口或游客。这部分人群虽然比例较小（例如，在伦敦有8%的非居住人口和4%的游客。而像里昂这种既不是首都也不是旅游胜地的城市，这部分比例会低一点），也能带来数量可观的拥堵。不过考虑到模型的基准和共享出行的各类场景也不包含这类人群，这并不会影响到结果的比较。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">模拟得到的人群和出行调查受访者极为相符。表6表示的是一个模拟得到的出行模式，与“源头”出行模式（即出行调查原有的数据）之间的匹配程度。表格的对角线表示就是正确预测率，对于常用的模式（如步行和私家车）正确率较高，其它模式正确率则较低。最后得到的各交通模式比例，以及生成人口和出行数据在乘客-公里数上较为相近，其余部分存在的差异可以理解为一般人群出行自带的随机特征，而不影响模型整体。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表6、生成人口的交通模式比例（纵向）VS源头数据交通模式比例（横向）（%）</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4576043" data-w="743" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDs8mYxicup5E7RZSI3gmf8L6N4IzKaIkvnSF7DjZMH4FnkR5gjlXyia1Iw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">表7所示为模拟出行的特性。从表格可以看出，当无需换乘，且停靠站在起始地6分钟步行距离内时，人们最常使用公交。现有公交的频率总体较高，因此等待时间较短，而一些低频次的公交服务只会在长途旅行中被使用。公交整体需要的到达和离开时间仍较高，这导致了即便公交的出行距离较低，公交的出行时间是私家车的三倍。</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表7、模型中出行的平均性质（在所研究区域内）</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1742739" data-w="723" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsRHkwbOHUNNoiaO11PKzCB1Dibp58VjRKUkoeI92V1xY6NW6b3b91zgcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生成的人口数据让我们能够研究现有出行在时空上的分布。图十二所示为每个方格内每公里的私家车、公交和慢行交通各自的乘客-公里数。从三个图的结果可以看出，里昂市市中心产生较多的乘客-公里数，而在四周的郊区，有私家车产生的乘客-公里数要大于其他交通方式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.1499051" data-w="527" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDseEx2kZ9mOkblGgb7CyxdxB3GFCVxr50cVuZnRibVgYLJrvG5lvgE2zQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十二、现有出行模式下，里昂市每日乘客公里数分布（分为私家车、公交和骑行+步行）。图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人们普遍选择私家车出行的结果使得该区域内一些道路拥堵程度提高。图十三所示为晚高峰时期的交通流，图十四为晚高峰时期每个路网节点的拥堵程度。拥堵通过实际交通流量占最大交通量比例来表示。大部分路网连接节点拥堵水平仍然较低（比例低于0.3）。但对于主干道路，拥堵较为严重（比例高达0.75）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0928899" data-w="872" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDs8MYDqpWWWcVnQCQFXuwmmVUyOa3hwSMPLmrkTtRu97UPaqRV4wzOnA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十三、晚高峰时期路网交通量。图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0855263" data-w="760" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsOJtHvdrBzOlItOO5CXr82kGBh2eID2gq46IQPVQC6BuePxcLVMDNvg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十四、晚高峰时期路网拥堵程度。图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对模拟人口数据的分析表明，市中心有较高的公交和非机动交通利用率。在公交服务较不发达的郊区，人们更为关注私家车。与此同时，许多通往市中心的主干道路并不足以满足所有郊区的机动车顺畅出行的要求。因此，如何将人们从私家车转向更可持续的交通模式，是该区域一大要务。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0272512" data-w="844" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tiaib1ic46hI7kJrAA9ich58eBDsTCD6rXroyytyRXIR1OweHtWg4OGCD4huIHuqbQfrZ0nGt0lgiaqNIhw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十五、在基准场景下每个站点的乘坐率。图片来源：ITF, 地图信息由QGIS提供</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">模型也估计了目前公交乘坐模式。图十五展示了这种模式。结果表明里昂市中心的地铁乘坐率较高，轻轨网络和部分地区铁路线主要包括进入市中心的交通量。公交车的乘坐率则集中在大运量公交（轻轨，地铁或火车）覆盖不到的区域，以及从里昂市中心到郊区的几个大站。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;vertical-align: top;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);overflow: hidden;box-shadow: rgb(214, 208, 191) 0px 0px 15px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/bnruT4pS8l8ticJaQvffAWBUgZuGjblMWqe9RuxuANcedqfOY8MtuHuRU0KqQYicqheA6WzFtAwwnrfDk6ibHQ1oQ/640?wx_fmt=png");background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-attachment: scroll;padding: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0px;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(213, 178, 122, 0.49);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(213, 178, 122);font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding: 0px 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">未完待续</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 60px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: -20px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5967016" data-w="667" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/PSNcZQ6eVb2GXoPXEDECopG3tHSTsc4Zzibp7hQNIzJN77Ryr1jhYoPfyTwsD9vNkmhbRNqbkcCicuRDwEBcICkA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  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style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(181, 190, 143);border-style: none;border-width: 1px;background-color: rgb(122, 215, 248);border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 6px;line-height: 1.6em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-radius: 6px 0px 0px 6px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(149, 218, 243);width: 1.6em;height: 1.6em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 4px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.6;font-size: 14px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《</strong>里昂市共享出行仿真模拟（2020）<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">》</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.3333333" data-w="711" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyygI8NDB9vB0lfZ99EsrSVwvMrWqAcCESiaMG15tvdKErt8yKAkKZJ9sQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.4423077" data-w="624" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyOLdCCOyc070CNNjF2Wsd7bApBKP62EK4XFMRiaL9DeNgkLDsWxsKfww/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.3809524" data-w="651" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8b0r2R21dLJsKaqFbORRyyibkK0L7s4ia7NJhf5e4iaJ9CibE3DvXynShMbXthpO4ZwqYhcWPOicFaZoQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" 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