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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;overflow: hidden;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 4em;height: 4em;border-radius: 50%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhJ5cXQibLzoJwricx6u2fgetC6CDM0Pj4XfNEKJACExaKHQtLoLYA0kJvfHroq1kwaUnibwgGzLTl0w/640?wx_fmt=png");overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="0.9409091" data-w="220" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhJ5cXQibLzoJwricx6u2fgetC6CDM0Pj4XfNEKJACExaKHQtLoLYA0kJvfHroq1kwaUnibwgGzLTl0w/640?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="width: 100%;margin-left: 1.2em;margin-top: -1.2em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;white-space: nowrap;overflow: hidden;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2em;margin-left: 1em;border-bottom-left-radius: 1em;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);max-width: 85% !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 1.5em;line-height: 1.5;padding-right: 0.5em;font-size: 11px;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">点击蓝字关注公众号</p></section></section><section style="float: left;width: 5%;margin-left: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;margin-top: 1.82em;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者浙江省城乡规划设计研究院王颖芳，浙江大学建筑工程学院教授、博士生导师华晨，浙江省城乡规划设计研究院张彦芝在《规划师》2019年第24期撰文，规划命中率可以作为评价一个规划是否有效的定量指标，其中规划发展目标、方案编制及实施管理三者间的关系是决定规划命中率高低的关键。文章从三者间关系的一般规律入手，通过不确定视角分析了现状规划命中率不高的几种现实模式及其缘由。同时，基于可预测视角探讨了提高规划命中率的途径和方法，一是要“有的放矢”，在考虑误差范围的情况下确定合理的目标域，目标选择实现由点到面的转变，增加规划目标准确率及规划方案编制的弹性；二是要“对症下药”，依照不同城市的特性进行方案编制；三是要“因地适宜”，选择最优实施管理路径，及时针对目标变动做相应调整，建立弹性循环的反馈管理体系。</p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;height: 5px;background: -webkit-linear-gradient(left, rgb(156, 94, 21), rgba(255, 247, 234, 0)) white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"></section></section><section style="font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 关键词 ] 城乡规划；不确定性；可预测性；规划命中率</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文章编号 ]006-0022(2019)24-0036-05</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 中图分类号 ]TU981　</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文献标识码 ]A </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 引文格式 ] 王颖芳，华晨，张彦芝．可预测视角下提高规划命中率的路径探讨[J]．规划师，2019(24)：36-40．</p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 19px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划命中率表现为规划目标与实施结果的重合</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">程度</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(132, 81, 21);padding: 10px;border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">现代城乡规划学科以城乡建成环境为研究对象，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以城乡土地利用和城市物质空间规划为学科的核心。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城乡规划通过确定城市性质、规模和空间发展布局，合</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">理利用土地以及协调各项建设的综合部</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">署和全面安排，来实现一定时期内城乡</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">经济和社会发展目标。通常人们会以规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划所提出的政策、方法及建议等最终能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">否成功地控制和引导经济社会发展目标</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的实现来评判规划是否有效。但仅以规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划有效或规划失效来定性地评判规划成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">果显然显得单一，而规划命中率则是在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一个大致的量的基础上来评判一个规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的有效性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">规划命中率包括广义和狭义两种概<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">念。从广义上看，命中率是一个概率统</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">计的问题，表示在众多规划的合集中规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划有效和规划失效之间的比例。而从狭</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">义上看，每一个单一的规划亦有其结果</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">有效和失效的部分，由于每个案例所处</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的不同背景和环境，存在不同的比例表</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">现。本文所指的规划命中率为后者，意</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为某个单一规划项目的发展目标与实施</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">结果之间的重合程度。两者重合的程度</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">越高，表明规划命中率越高，规划有效</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性也越高(图1)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3398148" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1VJzXuDtgdpBUiaVLqm1ibJlkUH5rPv4pFlQsd07UiaEOvFHsfdB8e1tAw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 19px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划发展目标、方案编制及实施</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">管理三者间的一般规律</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(132, 81, 21);padding: 10px;border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一场射击命中率的高低通常是由靶<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">心、瞄准点及射击路径三者之间的相互</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">关系来决定的，与射击命中率相似，规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划命中率的高低亦与规划发展目标(靶</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">心)、方案编制(瞄准点)及实施管理(路</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">径) 三者之间的关系有关( 图2)。对于规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划发展目标，其可变动性可以分为两种</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">维度上的改变，一方面是y 轴的偏移——</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展性改变，表示规划目标在量的大小</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上的改变，如规划人口数量从5万到10</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">万的改变；另一方面是x轴的偏移——</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方向性改变，表示规划目标在质上的改</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">变，如城市定位从工业型向旅游型改变。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对于规划方案编制，也同样具备相应的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">两个维度，即y轴——规划分期控制、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">x轴——规划的具体布局。对于规划实施</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">管理，则是一条由规划编制瞄准点趋向</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于规划发展目标靶心的线性路径。在理</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">想状况下，一个合理的规划发展目标经</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">过几轮发展变化，配合相对应的方案编</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">制，通过有效的管理实施，将得到一个</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基本与目标相重合的规划实施结果，即</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">达到近乎100％的规划命中率( 图3)。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">通过图3可知，A2和An的变动总是滞</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">后于G2和Gn的变动，即方案编制和实</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">施管理的变动对应于发展目标的变动，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">总是体现出一定的滞后性，这是由未来</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展的不确定性导致的。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0520646" data-w="557" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1BiaDuyTHryiavEQMZKUKdh71I0WLgZDuoYpiaTvQe1aKiclo5n1C95LEeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0302491" data-w="562" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1W4fhNDmK8Ws0ch39TfG579ohlBZTlWyeTxLicmpP3UXK3dpzy3fBzxw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 19px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">不确定视角下三者关系的现实</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">模式</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(132, 81, 21);padding: 10px;border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">未来，唯一确定的就是不确定性。<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">最基本的表现在于主客观世界中无处不在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的变化。如果说客观世界的变化是显而易</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">见的，那么主观世界的变化亦在无声中日</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">新月异。例如，人们对于主体世界的认识</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">从一开始的服务于少数人，到后来的服务</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于全体人类，再到现在的服务于地球上所</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">有的生物；对于客体世界的认识从一开始</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的城市环境，到后来的城乡环境，再到</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">现在的大自然整体环境。所有的这些变</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">化都直接或间接地影响着城乡发展目标</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的规模和方向、规划编制的理论和方法</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">甚至是实施管理的手段与途径等。在不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">确定视角下，一方面从目标的确定到方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">案编制再到实施管理，其间会产生诸多</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">变动，且相互之间并不具有同时性或对</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等性；另一方面每一个过程涉及的操作</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">主体都具有各自的主观性和个体性，因</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">此规划发展目标、方案编制及实施管理</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">之间经常会出现不同程度的偏移，形成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不同于一般理想规律的现实模式，此时</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的规划命中率较低。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）目标分散型</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">随着信息网络化和经济全球化，各<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个城市在自身发展的共性和个性上都做</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">了诸多研究，提取了可能存在的多种发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展前景，且一并作为城乡发展的目标体</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">系来实现。按照军事学射击所遵循的“一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">弹一命”目标原则，目标的瞄准具有唯</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一性，当同一时间出现多个目标时，则</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">需要对目标进行优先顺序的选择。因此，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">当城乡规划的发展目标在同一时期出现</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分散型多目标( 如G1?～ G1<span style="font-size: 11px;box-sizing: border-box;">5</span>) 的情形时，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">即使这些目标本身也许并没有直接或间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">接的矛盾，但由于其需要在同一个时间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">段去完成，隐性地造成了多目标间的冲</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">突。此时，规划编制面临多方向性的选择，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">需要将某些目标( 如G1?) 放在比较优先</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的位置，将其余目标放在比较次要的位</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">置。最终的结果往往是规划只能命中某</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个或少数几个目标，对于这个发展目标</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">体系而言，其规划命中率的整体水平并</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不高(图4)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9928058" data-w="556" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1hWS5YOgibYLicpBf6OL9FcKt7CXliaYiaTZaHoOoTgtUxcKKGdaGVFhpZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二） 目标频变型</p></section></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一方面，受政治周期的转变及换届<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">效应的影响，许多城市还是会采取“铺</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">摊子”或“上项目”的做法，并随着生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">产力及社会经济水平的提升，对定性的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市发展目标做出忽左忽右的调整。另</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一方面，由于定量型规划目标通常是通</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">过预测得出的，取值单一，基本不考虑</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">预测误差的存在，现实城市发展很有可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">能在短时期内超出预测范围，导致目标</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在短期内被动变更。在军事学射击中，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对于频发的目标，必须以快速的临时反</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应来实现逐个击破。而对于整个规划系</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">统中的规划编制而言，由于受编制时间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等的限制，显然没有军事学射击中的反</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应灵敏。因此，当发展目标在相当短的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">时期内发生了多次改变(G1～Gn) 时，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城乡规划特别是区域规划和城市总体规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划等的方案编制并不能在短时间内做出</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">相应的调整，实施管理结果与最终目标</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">产生了较大程度的脱节，导致规划命中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">率低下(图5)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9857904" data-w="563" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1FNfGXGm1yiciakSZN9xHs2fuqgic2HbKEicw79Gs7UibtDZGRzEd8JvcnuQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其中，目标分散型的瞄准点可以在<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">G1?～G1<span style="font-size: 11px;box-sizing: border-box;">5</span> 进行相应选择，而目标频变型</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">瞄准的往往是首个发展目标G1，其后产</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生的变化结果G2～Gn 则很难在短时期</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">内做出应对。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）方法保守型</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在合理的时间期限内，在规划发展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目标做出适当调整后，规划编制都会有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">相应的调整。然而，发展目标的调整通</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">常是在城市面临新的问题或者发展机遇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的情况下而提出的，具有较好的现势性，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">而规划编制的理论和方法则往往比较滞</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">后，即使发展目标在量上做了调整(G1</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">～G2)，甚至是在质上做了调整(G2～</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Gn)，规划编制也显得较为保守，按照老</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一套的方式进行，缺乏方向性的试探和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">路径的转变。在军事学射击中，经常会</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">有“敌不动我不动，敌一动，我以静制动”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的说法。但显然，在这个策略中即使瞄</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">准点未发生改变，但由于目标的变化，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">射击的路径和方向已经发生了实质性的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">转变。因此在保守型的规划编制指导下，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实施管理路线通常明显地偏离现势发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目标的方向，导致规划命中率不高(图6)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.948542" data-w="583" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F155CWBOaLT2LwYTHxYibH3UiaPXcZt3O8Fx3p9M4b3biaFh2P0jzjPibYGg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（四） 方法跨越型</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在城乡规划中，存在另一种因方法<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上的不足而导致规划命中率不高的情形，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">即方法跨越型，指在发展目标做出相应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">调整(G1～Gn) 的时候，规划编制采取</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">了较为理想的思路和大胆的手法(A2～</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">An)，通过未成熟的新兴理论指导来构建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市发展的美好蓝图。虽然跨越型的做</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">法颇像军事学中“敌一动我乱动”的战略，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">但是事实上，军事学中的此战略是为了</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">混淆视线，降低本身的被命中率，其“乱</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">动”的结果并不会提高自身射击的命中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">率。诚然，规划编制中过于大胆的手法</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">或过于理想的构思并不完全等同于军事</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">学中“乱动”的原理，但由于其缺乏有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实践意义的理论支撑，在规划方向和规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划实施路径的指导上可操作性不强，实</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">施管理工作较难展开，最终导致规划操</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">作实践方向性的偏离或中断，难以实现</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展目标(图7)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9611307" data-w="566" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1nT7mxwrS1CaVgdTbKBIpUpASzVonkUmarWj2orctDE4kYhWdib23HZw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（五） 南辕北辙型</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于射击而言，当目标和瞄准点确<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定，路径选择完成，扣动扳机以后，子</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">弹命中目标基本只受风速、气压等客观</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">外部因素的影响，即子弹的执行路径相</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对是比较稳定的。而城乡规划中的实施</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">管理则由于现实具体情形的复杂性以及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">操作主体的个体性，在现实管理工作中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">会以较为主观和惯性的管理方式来处理</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">问题。即使规划编制应对发展目标的改</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">变(G1～Gn) 做出了相应的调整(A1～</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">An)，并制定了合理的实现路径( 虚线)，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">但实际实施管理未能完全遵循规划路径，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">甚至会产生较大的偏离( 实线)，最终导</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">致实施结果与发展目标南辕北辙，规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">命中率较低( 图8)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.973262" data-w="561" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1sUcPmHoDbCf7CrXShoePKXjdicQiblMRcMqu6lz6nXBU8kL4fqyjTpng/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 19px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">理想模式的局限性及现实模式的</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">成因分析</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(132, 81, 21);padding: 10px;border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">从上文分析可知，理想模式和现实<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">模式都具有其局限性或缺陷性。理想模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">式虽然有很高的规划命中率，但是完全</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">忽略了城乡规划所处的变幻莫测的大环</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">境，忽略了未来的不确定性。毕竟规划</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">目标的命中并不完全等同于军事学中敌</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我双方武器的命中，后者有比较客观现</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实的数据支撑，如子弹速度、方向角度</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">及风速等诸多可预测的因素；而对于前</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">者，其影响因素显得更难以捉摸，规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的速度很难界定，并没有一个精确的数</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">据，规划的方向亦是抽象的名词，并不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">能用方位角度来准确定位，涉及发展目</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">标、方案编制和实施管理的具体细节，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">更是与现时政策、领导意志和个人观念</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等休戚相关。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在不确定因素影响下产生的面向现<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">状的现实模式，虽然体现了规划发展目</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">标、方案编制及实施管理三者间存在的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">相互不确定性的可能性，但是也表现出</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">了现状规划命中率的低下。分析现实模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">式的成因，主要受以下五个因素的影响：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 定量预测型规划目标的单一性取<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">值，忽略了预测可能存在的误差性。发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展目标中的人口、用地等规模预测都是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于现状的数据推导而来的，即使忽略</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据本身存在的误差，不同预测方式得</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">出的结果也具有一定的偏向，因而参照</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">某一确定数据得到的规划目标本身存在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不稳定性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 定性方向型规划目标存在多个并<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">列目标无重点、分散的情形，规划总是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">试图包含所有方面，在经济、社会、生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">态、人文……每一个目标上都试图做得</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“丰满”，最终导致每个城市的规划套</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">路都基本相同，几乎每一个城市都可以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">冠上“宜居城市、生态城市、智慧城市、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">历史文化名城”等名片。大而全的规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目标体系导致在规划方案编制时丧失了</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">选择目标的侧重性，最终使每一个方面</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都显得单薄而形式化。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 规划项目中规划参与人员的频<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">繁变动是影响规划目标确定和方案编制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">合理性很重要的因素。在军事学射击上，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">常常会出现一种状况，叫作“首发不命</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中”，这往往是由于首发时场地状况、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">器械状况的不熟悉及心理因素导致的。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一方面，由于规划师往往都是规划项目</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所在城市中的“过客”，很难在短时间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">内熟悉和理解城市；另一方面，一个规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划的其他相关规划或后续规划又常常是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">由不同的规划师来参与完成，因而规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">师们所经历的大多数项目都有着类似</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“首发”的情形，对规划场地的认识不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">足或者认识过度估计都是极其容易发生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的事情。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(4) 方案编制的理念和方法总是滞后<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于现实问题的发生，保守式规划或跨越</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">式规划导致方案编制本身的可操作性不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高，易导致规划失效。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(5) 现实问题的灵活性和实施管理环<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">节的人为主观性导致规划实施路径未必</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">遵循方案编制的规划路线，当实施路径</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">偏离过大时，则会导致实施结果与发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目标的偏离，使规划失效。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 19px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">可预测视角下提高规划命中率的</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">途径</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(132, 81, 21);padding: 10px;border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">不确定视角虽然解释了规划命中率<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不高的内在原因，但是也为解决规划失</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">效的问题设置了一道屏障：既然未来是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不确定的，城乡规划整体系统中的任何</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一个环节，包括目标的确定、规划方案</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的编制、审批管理及建设实施等都有可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">能出现与预期不同的偏差，直接或间接</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">导致规划命中率的低下。然而，将规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">命中率低下的原因仅仅归为是由不确定</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性所导致的，显然是消极且被动的。参</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">照军事学的理念，即使人们很难完全确</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定移动性目标的精确位置，甚至对于敌</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方行动更是难以准确判断，但是通过对</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">静止或运动目标的跟踪和预测，依然能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">较高地实现目标的命中率。因此，基于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目标可预测的视角，提高规划命中率的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">途径可以从以下方面考虑：“有的放</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">矢”——考虑发展目标的误差范围，提</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高目标预测的准确性和持久性；“对症</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">下药”——考虑方案编制的可能路径，提</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高编制方案的灵活性；“因地制宜”——</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">提高实施管理路径的能动性，建立规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">弹性循环体系( 图9)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0539568" data-w="556" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miaMBeHzATgIXvBZoiaOnF1F1l0MaIPtiafRIVz1FM4ibhvbJhaG264q1n9WyT2N3P1O9f1OibObCPbyWQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）“有的放矢”</p></section></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">目标命中率的高低很重要一点在于<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“的”——目标的确定。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一方面，针对定量预测型的发展目<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">标，应当增加弹性的控制。“的”的确定，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应当具有伸缩性和延展性，即在考虑误差</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">范围( 基本符合正态分布) 的情况下确定</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">合理的目标域，使目标选择实现由点到面</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的转变。相对应的规划编制也应当保留一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定的预留性，在选择最佳方案( 正态分布</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中心线) 作为操作路径的同时，要充分考</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">虑用地和功能的实施结果在面临不足或</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">超负荷的两种情况下应采取的应变措施。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">此种方案的调整与普通分期规划的区别</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在于方案的可变性，即具有即时性的调</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">整，而不在于方案实施的时序性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面，对于定性方向型的发展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目标，应当增加刚性的控制。“的”的确定，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应当具有重点性且持久性。一个城市的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展目标本身是具有多元化和多维化的，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">这一点毋庸置疑，但是对于任何一个资</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">源和资金有限的城市而言，有重点、有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">选择地致力于某些方面的发展，远比同</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">时致力于全方位的发展更具有现实意义。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">换而言之，一个城市在考虑全方位发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的同时，更应该有属于自己特质的专长，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在考虑前沿发展理念的同时，还应该坚</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">持适合自己的方向。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二） “对症下药”</p></section></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对规划方案编制进行正确引导，其<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重要性不亚于射击时的瞄准和治病时的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方子。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 针对“首发不命中”的状况，一<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方面可以在规划项目中增加对项目所在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市较为熟悉的规划人员，增强规划师</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">团队对项目的熟悉度；另一方面，当一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个规划项目完成以后，其相关规划或者</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">周边地区的规划可以考虑原有规划团队</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人员参与，以减少规划“首发”的状况。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 虽然城乡规划是一门应用学科和<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">经验学科，并没有像基础学科那样具有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">精准的公式或定理，但是许多基础学科</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">之前都是以经验的形式存在的，试错的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">过程不可避免，这是学术理论和应用技</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">术相融合的过程。试错的关键在于对尺</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度的把握，不能因为畏惧失败而永远采</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">取保守的技术和方法，同样也不能因为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">噱头而打着创新的旗帜，鲁莽地尝试过</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于跃进的路线。产品的试错失败不过是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">损失了一个商品，而对于规划，其试错</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">失败影响的是一城人，甚至是几代人的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生活，因为城市中每一个人都是城乡规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划的消费者。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 针对相同的病症，往往会因为病<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">患本身的体质不同而采取不同的药量。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一般来说，不同城市人们的出行、居住</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等方式习惯不同，最终的用地功能布局</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">会大相径庭。因此，应当避免城乡规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的套路化，针对不同城市的特质进行方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">案编制，合理调配“药剂”的分量，使</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划方案具有更好的延展性、灵活性和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适应性。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三） “因地制宜”</p></section></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">实施管理是实现城乡规划的实际建<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设环节，是规划命中率实现的操作路径，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">没有实施管理的城乡规划如同没有射出</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">去的子弹，是完全没有作用力的。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一方面，编制规划方案设定的规划<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">管理路径是理论上的最佳路径，随着时间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的变更，其极有可能发生改变。偶尔的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">偏离路线不仅是主观能动性的表现，还</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是“曲线救国的手段”，一成不变的法</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定路线是缺乏弹性的，因此每个城市都</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">有一套适合自己的管理建设体系。对应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于发展目标的持久性，规划方案编制和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实施管理应当更多地考虑动态性的修正。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面，针对未来的不确定性，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">加强动态目标跟踪最主要的手段是建立</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">弹性循环的反馈系统。鉴于大数据技术</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的日渐成熟，可建立现状评价、规划设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">计及建设反馈的城市建设基因库，联合</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公众和专家的反馈意见，及时调整操作</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方法和路径，建立城乡规划弹性反馈管</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">理体系。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);display: inline-block;font-size: 18px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">六</strong></p></section><section style="background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);display: inline-block;font-size: 18px;line-height: 1;padding: 5px 5px 1px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 结语</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 2px 1px 1px;border-style: dashed none none;border-color: rgb(44, 90, 160);padding: 0px;background-color: rgb(229, 240, 247);border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 15px 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;padding: 0px 5px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">最后需要明确的一点是，除了规划<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发展目标、方案编制和实施管理三者间</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的关系外，规划方案编制及实施管理的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">历时长短亦是影响规划命中率不可忽视</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的因素。一方面，历时越短，规划目标</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">变动的可能性越小，历时越长，则变动</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的可能性越大；另一方面，历时越短，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">方案和操作的精准度可能性越低，历时</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">越长，则精准度越高。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“有的放矢”、“对症下药”和“因</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地制宜”分别从规划发展目标、方案编</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">制和实施管理三个角度探讨了提高规划</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">命中率的方法与途径。提高规划命中率</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的最终目的是为了城乡合理且健康的发</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">展，因而命中率的提高应以目标正确为</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">前提，在社会经济等变化因素的影响下，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当既定的目标甚至规划方案编制难以适</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">应新的状况时，实施管理应做出适当的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">调整，而不能仅仅为了追求规划命中率</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的高低。</span></p></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;text-align: right;line-height: 1;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-bottom: 0.6em solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 0.6em solid rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;border-top: 0.6em solid transparent !important;border-left: 0.6em solid transparent !important;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/sibibyLU4h4e9fNs7iarNQnowib0KIQibUyv8bGvIG2bsUuTfCN7VXjVEcZIbgBRnXxsUaGUfwurCqBYGbnjz3MEFhQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;padding: 15px;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(197, 226, 224);width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(110, 110, 110);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来源：2019年24期《规划师》杂志</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(32, 84, 156);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新媒体编辑：刘晓莹</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">审读：刘芳</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 0px 1.5em;margin-bottom: -35px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 10px;width: 100%;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》2019年24期</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">《可预测视角下提高规划命中率的路径探讨 》</p></section></section></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 24px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="float: left;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"><section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-left: 23px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 16px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;margin-top: -8px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="float: right;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"> <section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 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border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(227, 43, 107);box-sizing: border-box;">声明</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(132, 81, 21);box-sizing: border-box;">《规划师》杂志社微信公众订阅号（ID：）为非盈利新媒体平台，所有转发的非原创图文来源于互联网及新媒体渠道，如果所转发图文作者或其他版权所有人认为违反了您的权益，请告知我们，我们会在24小时内删除。</span></p></section></section><section style="width: 100%;margin-top: 1em;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"> <section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-top: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  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powered-by="gulangu"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">识别图中二维码进入微店购买《规划师》杂志</strong></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="850" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhJ5cXQibLzoJwricx6u2fgetZ5MyRib18xP0xDn74Ojh7SOLkWGwDdP45x3gXR1Q2DKjcxvicOjUKZyQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);color: rgb(255, 255, 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