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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjnfGRGcVI9yjkYnW1StBicMUxAFTo1P2EudCQibfIwSZulmVwcdU7YT5lVWxaHDf5132QpLq0odIRQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 70%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(153, 166, 171);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;">欢迎点击以上蓝色字体</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关注</p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjnfGRGcVI9yjkYnW1StBicMUxAFTo1P2EudCQibfIwSZulmVwcdU7YT5lVWxaHDf5132QpLq0odIRQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(254, 193, 192);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 4px;clear: both;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者天津大学建筑学院博士研究生张威涛，天津大学建筑学院教授、博士生导师运迎霞在《规划师》2020年第2期撰文，避难场所的分布对灾害风险的“适应”具有复杂性，不仅体现在避难场所的职能差异方面，更体现在灾害风险的多种构成上。文章从全面的、解构的灾害风险评价出发，梳理“损失型”灾害风险的构成维度，提出滨海城市风暴潮避难所分布对各“损失型”维度的适应性原则。随后，以天津滨海新区为例，通过实证研究，利用ArcGIS对风暴潮避难所备选用地的分布做核密度分析，并对研究区域的致灾危险性、人口暴露性、交通敏感性和服务敏感性等“损失型”风险维度的分布做热点分析，将前后分析结果一 一比对发现，风暴潮避难所备选用地的分布未能充分利用低危险地区，且不能有效覆盖高暴露地区，缺乏交通和服务优势。</p></section><section style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(42, 118, 162);float: right;margin-top: -6px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 关键词 ] 风暴潮避难所；灾害风险；适应性；滨海城市；天津滨海新区</p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文章编号 ]1006-0022(2020)02-0027-07</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 中图分类号 ]TU984　</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文献标识码 ]B </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 引文格式 ]<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">张威涛，运迎霞．滨海城市风暴潮避难所分布的灾害风险适应性研究——以天津滨海新区为例[J]．规划师，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2020(2)：27-33．</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/MWWkbLYpqY5MuJDyd7onkzrEN7z0G4yz4NrMbtVJWGTvyibp46ibG9L8JAP6G9muxoFj51MO8BzqyJe512WwAGtA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">相关研究进展概述</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国有关避难场所空间分布的研究</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">较丰富，主要包括确定布局原则、设计</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">布局指标和构建选址模型3个方面。其</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中，布局原则覆盖了疏散、收容、配合</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和运营等多个层面；设计布局指标多</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">被用于对避难场所和相关用地、设施、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">道路的空间关系的量化评价；选址模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型则是采用统筹学建模方式，试图同时</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">满足多项限制条件，通过GIS、LINGO和</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">MATLAB 等计算机技术实现模拟。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些研究内容都是以适应灾害风险<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为目标，但是当涉及以灾害风险评价为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">事实依据时，多局限在确定地区的主要</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾种、划分重点防灾地区及测评避难场</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所的环境安全等，未与灾害风险的评价</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">维度建立更细化的关联。相比之下，灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">害风险研究从20世纪初发展至今，已建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">立起系统且清晰的评价维度与关联机制，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">该机制为本文研究的理论基础。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/MWWkbLYpqY5MuJDyd7onkzrEN7z0G4yz4NrMbtVJWGTvyibp46ibG9L8JAP6G9muxoFj51MO8BzqyJe512WwAGtA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究方法</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）灾害风险构成的关键维度</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">灾害风险的发展构成经历了3个阶<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">段：一是20 世纪初，灾害产生的物理属</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性即致灾危险是灾害风险的核心对象；</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">二是20世纪40年代，在人口与财富激</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">增的同时，全球气候变化凸显，推动了</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾害风险研究由自然科学向社会科学范</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">畴延伸，承灾体损失的可能成为了与致</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾危险同等重要的风险构成要素；三是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">20世纪80年代，随着社会、经济、自</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">然和环境复合系统的“可持续发展”，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">业界对承灾体损失的响应能力掀起了研</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">究热潮，灾害风险扩展至致灾危险、承</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾体损失和防灾能力的综合评价。基于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">此，2004 年联合国国际减灾战略(UN/</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">ISDR) 提出了灾害风险评价机制并沿用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">至今，其评价机制如以下公式所示：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾害风险= 致灾危险性× 承灾体脆</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">弱性 </span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;text-align: right;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公式（1）</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其中，致灾危险性由致灾因子与孕<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾环境共同作用形成，最终表现为灾害</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发生的可能、频率、强度、范围和时长</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等因素。在风暴潮避难所研究中，承灾</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">体指人，城市系统中人的脆弱性实为人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">的活动的脆弱性，是人的自身条件和所</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">处城市建设条件对人的活动影响的综合</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">评价，又分为暴露性、敏感性和防灾能</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">力3个维度，它们的关系如以下公式</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">所示：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">承灾体脆弱性= 暴露性× 敏感性/<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">防灾能力</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;text-align: right;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公式（2）</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其中，暴露性指灾害危及地区的人口<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">数量；敏感性指人的活动因不具备响应能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">力而被动承受灾害损失的程度；防灾能力</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">指主动响应灾害以减少损失的能力。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">致灾危险性、人口暴露性和人口活</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">动敏感性中任一维度值的增加，都会加</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">剧灾害风险，增加灾害损失。因此，可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">称这3个维度的评价为灾害风险的“损</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">失型”评价，其评价公式如下所示：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“损失型”灾害风险=｛致灾危险性，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口暴露性，人口活动敏感性｝</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;text-align: right;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公式(3)</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“适应”灾害是防灾能力的多种表<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">现之一，与灾害风险成反比。“适应”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的概念常出现在“适应全球气候变化及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">引发灾害”的策略研究中，以尊重自</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">然生态法则、遵循客观规律为主导思想。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为了解决人与灾害的冲突，适应性总是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">包含两个层面的内容：正面应对和主动</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规避。风暴潮避难所的分布即是“适应”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">策略的典型表现，一是主动撤离风暴潮</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">侵袭地区，二是若空间上的侵袭无法避</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">免，则应提供坚固的防护场所抵抗风暴</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮侵袭。并且，只有当风暴潮避难所的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分布能够分别适应危险性、暴露性和敏</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">感性3个维度时，才能使适应能力最大化，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">具体表达公式如下所示：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“适应”灾害=｛正面应对，主动规避｝</p><p style="text-indent: 2em;text-align: right;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公式(4)</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）风暴潮“损失型”灾害风险指标与评价</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.指标设计</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 致灾危险性指标。如表1所示，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在风暴潮原生灾害危险性评价中，浸水</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">深度应分别考虑漫滩或溃坝两种灾害场</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">景；滨水损失则指当河流成为海水涌入</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">内陆的洪水走廊时，沿河地区与其他地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区相比，在同样浸水深度下的水流速度</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">会更高。已有研究表明，沿河1km范围</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">内建筑与设施的损毁程度明显更大。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在风暴潮的次生灾害危险性评价中，老</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">旧住区引火指当发生风暴潮漫滩或溃坝</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">时，在人口密集的生活聚集区容易因电</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">路设备损坏起火并蔓延。而在危险性生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">产活动、设备材料集中的港口地区，或</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">因油气泄露和爆炸引发严重火灾。另外，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高密度种植的防护林在海水涌入内陆时</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">会降低水流速度并阻挡漂流垃圾，且高</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等级道路具有不燃化路面，行道树也可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以降低风速、抑制火势增长与蔓延。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6987013" data-w="770" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBx6kEVGWqdTPMiapg1AiazOjQ16Wqib8edJkMBv51icOHJrMP0JmWoLTSCgw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 人口暴露性指标。如表2所示，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以日间人口密度作为核心评价指标，其</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中工作人口可按行业细分；居家人口指</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">日间不外出人口；休闲( 及其他) 人口指</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">日间外出非工作人口。结合社会经济数</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">据、人口统计数据和问卷调查等，可以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">获得各类人口数量，再按与之匹配的用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地性质分配到城市用地布局中。同类用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地性质但不同地块间的人口数量，可按</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地块面积(或容积率加权) 分配。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3269231" data-w="780" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBx50uiarabJqrQrlS9GtncKhvW2ia0uwiaMlhwcg1QeoAVVTMIibeZtq7LRQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 人口活动敏感性指标。以交通敏<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">感性和服务敏感性为代表。如表3所示，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通敏感性根据高等级道路的路网密度</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和交口密度测算。当灾害场景下进行交</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">通管制时，一般以对外交通要道作为公</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">助性外部防灾专用道，以城市主干路作</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为公助性内部防灾专用道，承担组织性、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规模化和可重机通行的救助与疏散运输</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">功能。若无对外交通要道(下道口)过境，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">或存在主干道覆盖性低、连通性差等问</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">题，将会造成风暴潮避难所接受救助服</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">务派遣、大批人口向风暴潮避难所疏散</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以及从风暴潮避难所再向外二次转移的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">可达性较低，还可能因路面交通混乱造成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通安全隐患。如表4所示，服务敏感</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性可以根据救助设施分布的规模或数量</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">考量。救助设施指必须在灾害初期至后</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">期向避难所派遣救灾人员及调送救灾物</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">资的专业设施。市区级救助设施最为关</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">键，其可以提供更为完整、先进和可靠</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的支援。若无救助设施就近分布，风暴</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮避难所将无法及时、方便地获取外部</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">专业支援，从而会削弱甚至丧失为避难</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">者提供救助服务和避难生活的职能。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3926702" data-w="764" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxEa5UrWpwlIRlTooMzfiazXhFlzgyqFyibiaW3trLoGGelXBzU6nzJNicXw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6246787" data-w="778" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxjI467vbTN91UQ4FAHWtgAnyku2N76fhBNDuc5S38WriciajicldUhRNqg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.评价方法</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文采用指标体系评价法，分别对<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">每个“损失型”灾害风险维度进行评价：</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">首先，划分评价单元，可采用GIS数据管</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">理工具生成不同精度的规则网格单元，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">也可以结合城市活动特征，以城市道路</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">为边界划分街块单元；其次，针对每</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">一维度，测算各项指标得分，通过数据</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">标准化将得分纳入同一单位尺度；最后，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">通过指标加权求和获得各维度的最终评</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">价值。根据美国学者Prasad(2016) 对于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">假设指标权重相等的适宜性探讨，本</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">文假设各“损失型”灾害风险评价指标</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">等权重，不仅可以为风暴潮避难所分布</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">的改进提供较为全面的自然地理和城市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">建设依据，还便于为相似地区的规划研</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">究提供可复制和易计算的方法借鉴。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）风暴潮避难所分布的适应性原则</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在风暴潮灾害场景下，人口的应急<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">疏散分为“竖向疏散”和“横向疏散”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">两种模式，分别对应风暴潮避难所的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">临时和长期两种职能等级。其中，“竖</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">向疏散”指当预测到的风暴潮强度不高，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">或受组织管理困难、基础设施损毁及交</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">通工具不足等客观疏散障碍所限时，人</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">口就地向临时避难所紧急避难；“横向</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">疏散”指当预测到有严重风暴潮且有较</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">充分条件进行长距离疏散时，人口向内</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">陆、高地等安全地区的长期避难所大批</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">转移，并将其作为避难生活的据点。风</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴潮过后，因设施损毁或为了避免二次</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">险情，危险区中临时避难所的避难者还</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要继续向长期避难所“横向疏散”。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 适应致灾危险性的避难生活安全<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">原则。当风暴潮避难所作为长期收容点</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">时，必须分布于低危险地区内，规避高</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危险地区，为避难者的避难生活提供场</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所安全和环境安全的双重保障。同时，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">确保长期避难所的容量具有冗余性，满</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">足接收由高危险地区“横向疏散”而来</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的大批避难者。因此，应充分利用低危</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">险地区，增加长期避难所的数量与规模。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 适应人口暴露性的生命底线确保<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">原则。针对人口高暴露区，风暴潮避难</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所可能无法完全确保避难者的长期收容，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">但是必须确保有足量的临时收容量支持</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“竖向疏散”，强化避难所建筑和小环</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">境的物理防灾能力，坚守紧急避难峰值</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口的生命安全底线。同时，削减对低</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴露区中临时避难所的过度指定，控制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设与运行成本，避免因不必要的资源</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分散而降低应急响应效率。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 适应人口活动敏感性的机能高效<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">运转原则。风暴潮避难所的分布要充分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">占据交通和服务的优势区位。其中，避</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">难所靠近防灾专用道，便于快速启动和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">接收与紧急避难、避难生活、救助服务</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">紧密相关的公助性交通运输；在救助服</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">务设施或节点附近布局避难所，可以支</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">持救助设施在避难所之间便捷地流转。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">另外，当在救助服务设施缺乏的高敏感</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区中必须配置避难所时，可以指定附带</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大型开敞空间的风暴潮避难所作为防灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">服务据点进行弥补，并逐步完善地区内</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的道路系统或专业救助设施配套。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(4) 综合决策原则。在某地区布局风<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴潮避难所时，必须综合考量危险性、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴露性、敏感性3种“损失型”灾害风</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">险维度的适应性问题。总体而言，危险</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性对长期避难所的分布具有决定性；暴</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">露性决定临时避难所的分布；敏感性对</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">临时和长期避难所的分布都起到辅助作</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用。另外，同时为高危险、低暴露、高</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">敏感的地区最不适宜布局风暴潮避难所，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">低危险、高暴露、低敏感的地区则最适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜布局风暴潮避难所。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/MWWkbLYpqY5MuJDyd7onkzrEN7z0G4yz4NrMbtVJWGTvyibp46ibG9L8JAP6G9muxoFj51MO8BzqyJe512WwAGtA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">天津滨海新区实证研究</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）研究区域与数据来源</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">天津滨海地区受风暴潮影响从20世<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">纪90年代的3～5年1次，增加到现在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的每年1～2次，是我国风暴潮灾害</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的多发区之一。位于天津滨海的滨海新区，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">集制造、能源、仓储、物流、居住和服务</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">功能于一体，是我国综合性现代港口城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市的典型代表。目前滨海新区对风暴潮</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的工程防御主要依赖防潮堤与防护林，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">并没有开展风暴潮避难所的规划建设。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如图1、图2所示，本文主要研究区<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">域包括滨海新区核心区的东部港口地区、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">海河沿岸地区和西北部内陆地区，占地约</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">415km2；以城市主干路及以上等级道路</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为边界，研究区域用地共划分292个街</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">块单元；至2020年规划人口178万。在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">文化、教育科研和社会福利3类设施用地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中，研究提取不小于1hm2 的185处用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地作为风暴潮避难所备选用地。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0412371" data-w="388" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxYC20TO8h7qYVibYBFnOvKSQWAicn3aDZyiaCvjyytbNvuTO2dkSXBM3sA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0414508" data-w="386" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxxAsibZwsT4jtzmCr1Sh7xwe2fVybsk1RC7kqZOPKMEGdL7vl6zSOqyw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）风暴潮避难所备选用地分布</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文采用ArcGIS10.2 核密度分析</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(Kernel Density)，计算一定邻域范围内备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">选风暴潮避难所的规模加权密度，获得风</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴潮避难所的数量与规模在研究区域内的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">总体分布情况。假设所有备选风暴潮避难</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所的建筑容积率相等，则以用地面积代替</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建筑规模。已有研究表明，2000m为应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">急响应条件下人的步行最大范围，当风</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴潮避难所服务范围超过步行距离，其应急响应的效用会骤减。因此，以2000m</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">作为风暴潮避难所的服务半径，并指定为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">核密度分析中的邻域范围。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">核密度分析结果显示，备选风暴潮<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">避难所的空间分布非常不均匀，作为公</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">共和公益性资源，其规模和数量明显被地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区间非均衡的发展建设条件左右(图3)。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">相比靠近海河和入海口的中心高密度地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区，内陆北部生活聚集区中的文化、教</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">育科研和社会福利等建设用地更为宽敞，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以备选风暴潮避难所的规模和分布数量</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都较大，但覆盖范围非常有限，其中较高</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">值—很高值的区域仅占研究区域的2.4%。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在天津港的离岸金融中心码头、海河入海</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">口的国际航运中心和临港工业区的综合服</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">务中心，因具备较强的服务职能，各有1</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">处具有一定核密度的备选用地。靠近海河</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和入海口的中心地区虽然有较多避难所备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">选用地，但是因分布零散，用地局促，致</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">使核密度较低；广大的港口、工业用地及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市边缘地区因公共服务配置较少甚至缺</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">失，故核密度最低。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0656168" data-w="381" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxltY9KN4g5WR7q8gPrd3WCkdcs4LCwXqWgftbia8GBpjw3vKzwV87Z9w/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）“损失型”灾害风险分布</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文通过ArcGIS10.2热点分析(Hot <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Spot Analysis)，分别对研究区域中风暴潮</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">致灾危险性、人口暴露性、交通敏感性和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">服务敏感性的评价结果进行空间聚类分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">析，识别具有统计学显著性的高低值间的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分布差异。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 致灾危险性分布。高致灾危险性<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地区集中分布于港口且近海河入海口地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区，覆盖面积占研究区域的29.0%；低</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危险区一处位于内陆远离海河的北部地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区，另一处位于内陆沿河南部，总面积</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">占研究区域的18.6%(图4)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0481013" data-w="395" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxbiaGvXXPntD1ufbndbrHgCwiaRnWDkkYJq8JU6KBoQia3kIgDicQuicuPibw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">高危险和低危险分布差异的主要原<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">因包括：①滨海新区属于海相沉积区，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">近海地势低，增加了风暴潮的可能浸水</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">深度；②大规模填海造地将城市建设用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地向海域延伸，使风暴潮的可能浸水范</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">围变大；③海河和天津港的狭长码头都</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">构成了风暴潮洪水走廊，会加大沿岸滨</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">水损失；④港口地区存在大规模的火灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">爆炸隐患；⑤天津港工业防护绿带和大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型公园绿地规划建设不足，缺乏防火防</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮功能。相比之下，内陆生活聚集区不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">存在以上问题，且海河南岸地势最高，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基本无风暴潮浸水和滨水损失。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 人口暴露性分布。研究区域的高<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴露性表现出明显的单中心结构(图5)。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高暴露性区域主要分布在海河沿岸与入海</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">口，覆盖了于家堡中心商务区，另外天津</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">港离岸金融中心码头也表现出高暴露性，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">总面积占研究区域的19.8%；城区边缘表</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">现出低暴露性，涉及东南部临港工业区、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">北部先进制造业产业区和内陆生活聚集区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">3处，总面积占研究区域的24.1%。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">单中心结构形成的主要原因包括：</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0330789" data-w="393" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBx5IngicTS2sUPV0P4LeowKTkTF3Yk8ONmhhhHYDcaS5nBsU8iaJzEVEibw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">①海河因景观与运输优势成为城市发展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">轴线，经济要素向海河沿岸高度集中，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">吸引了大量居住、休闲和服务业从业人</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">口；②明确的港城用地划分使港城交界</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">处，尤其是入海口成为最具活力的地标性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地区，占据通勤枢纽、综合服务和金融商</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">务等多项发展优势，刺激了经济和人口的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">集中。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3)人口活动敏感性分布。如图6所示，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">单中心结构也反映在道路等级和密度的分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">布上。高交通敏感性除天津港码头、先进</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">制造业产业区和内陆生活聚集区的边缘地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区，还覆盖了全部临港工业区，总面积占</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究区域的49.3%；低交通敏感性地区靠</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">近海河沿岸及入海口，总面积占研究区域</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的16.1%。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0582278" data-w="395" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxdabguZ27e95RPShqtl6G8kUqA8PF9Hq00FbBLdSXvNfMVlWLbg3FWQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">相较于靠近海河和河口的区域，中心<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地区的路网密布且等级完善，高速路和快</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">速路等对外交通要道并未过境港口地区，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">并且临港工业区和城区边缘主干路覆盖密</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度较低，造成道路不成网的问题。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">低服务敏感性分布呈带状，自东向</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">西，从天津港离岸金融中心码头向于家堡</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中心商务区延伸，总面积占研究区域的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">14.9%；高服务敏感性地区主要分布在先</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">进制造业产业区和城市边缘，覆盖面积占</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究区域的10.3%( 图7)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0518135" data-w="386" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxuwSicXT6O7UMmicyfpGialU3xIe6LEhbjibakFFwGHfYX3SibQMIQEiaeTTA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">低服务敏感带也是港城综合发展带，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">两端聚集有行政管理、医疗卫生、商业、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通枢纽、邮政和消防等综合公共设施，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中部的港口码头则发挥仓储物流和交通运</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">输功能。相比之下，先进制造业产业区既</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">无港口运输的区位优势，也无丰富的生活</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">服务配套，服务敏感性最高。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（四）风暴潮避难所分布的单项风险维度适应性问题</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 低危险地区未被充分利用。风暴<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮避难所分布的高核密度区有81.2% 的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区域位于低致灾危险区，但仅占低危险</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区的10.6%，说明备选风暴潮避难所虽</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">然基本上集中分布在低危险环境中，但</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是数量和规模非常有限，没有充分利用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">更大范围的低危险地区，可能导致低危</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">险区无法充分收容从高危险区转移来的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 高暴露地区未被有效覆盖。风暴<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮避难所分布的高核密度区有38.6% 的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区域位于高人口暴露区，但仅占高暴露</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区的4.7%，说明备选风暴潮避难所无法</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高效覆盖高暴露地区，尤其可能导致海</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">河入海口附近和海河南岸的紧急避难人</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">口无法得到充分收容。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 交通优势与服务优势缺乏。在交<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">通方面，风暴潮避难所的高核密度区仅有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">24.7% 的区域位于低交通敏感区，可见集</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中分布的备选风暴潮避难所占据的交通优</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">势并不充分。另外，集中分布的备选风暴</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮避难所中还有10.0% 受到高交通敏感</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性影响，位于临港工业区服务中心的备选</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">避难所也位于高交通敏感区内。在服务方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">面，风暴潮避难所的高核密度区位于低服</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">务敏感区的面积为0，说明集中分布的备</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">选风暴潮避难所几乎没有占据服务优势，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">仅有于家堡中心商务区和国际航运中心附</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">近的一小部分备选避难所具有服务优势条</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">件。以上都将严重阻碍以风暴潮避难所为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">节点的避难与救助活动的开展。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（五）风暴潮避难所适应性分布的综合决策建议</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.确定最适宜和最不适宜分布地区</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于综合决策原则，通过各维度“损<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">失型”灾害风险评价结果的空间叠加，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">识别出最适宜配置风暴潮避难所的街块</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">单元仅1 个，位于海河南岸靠近城市中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">心；最不适宜配置风暴潮避难所的街块</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">单元也仅有1个，位于临港工业区非码</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">头的中部地区。其余290个街块单元都</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">需要进一步论证风暴潮避难所分布的必</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要性和可行性，并提出针对多个风险维</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度的适应性改进方案。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.低危险区的适应性改进方案</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如表5中低危险街块分布图所示，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文建议在低危险区加大配置长期风暴</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">潮避难所。进一步而言，如表5 中必须</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重点改进街块分布图所示，在低危险且</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高交通敏感区(集中于海河以北生活聚集</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区的西部边缘)，需要通过道路整备，增</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">加对外交通道路过境或增加城市主干路</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">路网密度及联通性；在低危险且高服务</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">敏感区(位于生活聚集区与先进制造业产</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">业区交界处、生活聚集区的西部边缘)，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">考虑以避难所附带大型开敞空间作为防</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾据点，或就近增设行政、医疗、商业</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">及消防等专业救助设施。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5150721" data-w="763" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxP4L1EdpMN78WDicOv4ibxX0QO5zg6Yic9BldFfPXM1zv66CvKv8X3bChw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.高暴露区的适应性改进方案</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如表6中高暴露街块分布图所示，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在高暴露区必须确保配置临时风暴潮避</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">难所。除此之外，如表6中必须重点改</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">进街块分布图所示，在高暴露且高危险区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(集中在海河入海口的国际航运中心及周</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">边地区、天津港离岸金融中心码头)，须</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">升级建筑标准、抬高码头地面和建筑楼面，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以及建造蓄洪绿地和防潮林；在高暴露且</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高交通敏感区(位于离岸金融中心码头)，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应增设港陆联系专用道，消除港城交通隔</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">离；在高暴露且高服务敏感区(位于海河</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以北的生活聚集区和先进制造业产业区交</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">界处)，应就近增设防灾据点或专业救助</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设施。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5285714" data-w="770" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhfQ0eoG1dU5xgYqXr0SIBxyUQd2mgyAcl7ys6U86rv9Q158GcBAA5Ml310YdBdKhuzd7HAjj3BDA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">4.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">调整城市空间结构，建设灾害</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">风险适应性城市</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上述针对具体街块的适应性问题<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的解决方案，都是在不改变现有城市总</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">体空间结构的前提下进行的。然而，研</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">究区域的空间结构本身存在对“损失</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型”灾害风险的不适应性，如表5显示</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">低致灾危险区中高交通敏感性地区高达</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">29.5%，而表6 显示高人口暴露区竟有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">30.9% 的地区受到高致灾危险的威胁。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">这些无疑都增加了现有备选避难所分布</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">无法适应灾害风险的可能性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因此，调整现有城市空间结构是改<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">善风暴潮避难所分布适应性的最根本且</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">需长期推动的策略。例如，将高暴露区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">向低危险区转移、低敏感区与低危险区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重合等，这需要与前瞻性规划、低危险</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区的开发刺激政策及高危险区的建筑防</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾鼓励政策等同步推进。具体的空间结</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">构调整方案包括重新划定城市发展边界，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">退让滨海沿河高致灾危险区；维护与重</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建滨海沿河生态栖息地，禁止或限制土</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">壤硬化；将大型基础设施、商业设施和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">住宅迁出高危险区；在低危险区中增加大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规模、高容量、系统性和标准化建设；加</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大滨海和内陆、专业港口区和生活聚集区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等高低危险区之间的高等级道路连接等。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/MWWkbLYpqY5MuJDyd7onkzrEN7z0G4yz4NrMbtVJWGTvyibp46ibG9L8JAP6G9muxoFj51MO8BzqyJe512WwAGtA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 6px;margin-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2px;margin: auto;height: 16px;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2px;margin: auto;height: 16px;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="transform: rotate(0deg);margin-bottom: -5px;width: 5px;height: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 222, 3);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 222, 3);border-top-color: rgb(255, 222, 3);border-right-color: rgb(255, 222, 3);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(214, 240, 252);padding: 10px 10px 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结语</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto;margin-top: -5px;width: 5px;height: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(226, 226, 226) 0px 16px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">全球气候变化正在以非线性和非稳<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定性的形式加剧极端天气的发生频率与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">强度，使风暴潮开始向高频率、高影</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">响型转变。提高风暴潮避难所分布对灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">害风险的适应性，是保障滨海风暴潮人</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">口安全底线的关键。本文从全面的、解</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">构的灾害风险评价的角度，提出滨海城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市中风暴潮避难所分布对“损失型”灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">害风险各维度的适应性原则，使避难场</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">所规划与灾害风险的关系更加清晰。研</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">究以天津滨海新区为例，揭示的备选风</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">暴潮避难所分布存在的适应性问题，在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国众多滨海城市中具有代表性。研究</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">结果不仅揭示了现有风暴潮避难所备选</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">用地分布不合理、现有防灾道路系统和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">灾害救助设施的分布不成熟问题，还反</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">映出现有城市空间结构有待调整。换言</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">之，单独依靠与风暴潮避难所布局相关</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的危险性、人口暴露性、交通敏感性和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">服务敏感性等其中任一方面的改进，都</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是无法完全解决灾害风险适应性问题的。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于此，本文提出了综合决策和建议，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">具有明确的目标和可操作性。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/MWWkbLYpqY5MuJDyd7onkzrEN7z0G4yz4NrMbtVJWGTvyibp46ibG9L8JAP6G9muxoFj51MO8BzqyJe512WwAGtA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(181, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -5px 0% 5px;transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(252, 221, 93);padding: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(100, 100, 100);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">来源：2020年02期《规划师》杂志</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(181, 180, 180);height: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(100, 100, 100);line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新媒体编辑：刘晓莹</p></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(100, 100, 100);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">审读：刘芳</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 5px;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: white;padding: 10px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》2020年02期</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《</strong>滨海城市风暴潮避难所分布的灾害风险适应性研究——以天津滨海新区为例<strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;">》</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 24px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="float: left;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"><section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-left: 23px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 16px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;margin-top: -8px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="float: right;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"> <section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 16px;height: 8px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;margin-top: -8px;margin-left: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;margin-top: -1px;margin-left: 16px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left-color: rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 100%;margin: -12px 0px;padding: 0px 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(227, 43, 107);box-sizing: border-box;">声明</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(132, 81, 21);box-sizing: border-box;">《规划师》杂志社微信公众订阅号（ID：）为非盈利新媒体平台，所有转发的非原创图文来源于互联网及新媒体渠道，如果所转发图文作者或其他版权所有人认为违反了您的权益，请告知我们，我们会在24小时内删除。</span></p></section></section><section style="width: 100%;margin-top: 1em;font-size: 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/></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2962963" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mjnfGRGcVI9yjkYnW1StBicMEGjPCBWpe9zKeNW1hN4qh0HEUKQmbu6XcKDU5BEicu5lB85wfrNMrjA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(197, 36, 36);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">《规划师》杂志社                                    </p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(117, 114, 114);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.8;padding: 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地址：广西南宁市青秀区月湾路1号南国弈园6楼</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">邮编：530029</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">邮箱：planner@21cn.net</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">网址：www.planners.com.cn</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">电话：0771-2438012</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">传真：0771-2436269</p></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8518519" data-w="837" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mjnfGRGcVI9yjkYnW1StBicMznVkREGl2yjs4IsBBOM7twyHd9wqvsv7CEaedplzuwsjcUPjVSVC2Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-left: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-top-color: rgb(21, 103, 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