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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;overflow: hidden;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 4em;height: 4em;border-radius: 50%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhbsUAKOpyf4bnsQdGGMYmlcaK9QWhicz8Ojv89aTcwToiaVOUSMzAccCYbo8QYte9zVOtHSibbkpc2Q/640?wx_fmt=png");overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="0.9409091" data-w="220" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhbsUAKOpyf4bnsQdGGMYmlcaK9QWhicz8Ojv89aTcwToiaVOUSMzAccCYbo8QYte9zVOtHSibbkpc2Q/640?wx_fmt=png" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="width: 100%;margin-left: 1.2em;margin-top: -1.2em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;white-space: nowrap;overflow: hidden;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2em;margin-left: 1em;border-bottom-left-radius: 1em;border-left: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);max-width: 85% !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 1.5em;line-height: 1.5;padding-right: 0.5em;font-size: 11px;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">点击蓝字关注公众号</p></section></section><section style="float: left;width: 5%;margin-left: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;margin-top: 1.82em;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">【专题讨论22】</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间危机预警系统研究</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(218, 107, 107);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;text-align: justify;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者于浙江省城乡规划设计研究院倪庆梅、王颖芳在《规划师》2020年第6期撰文，文章通过对地质灾害及传染病等预警体系的研究，探讨城镇空间危机预警系统的构建。城镇空间危机预警的整体过程应包括空间风险评估、空间安全规划、空间预警监控、空间预警决策以及贯穿始终的预警技术研究。同时，文章对城镇空间危机预警机制的完善进行了相应研究，认为城镇空间预警除了构建预警系统全过程以外，更需要强化组织运作、物质建设、法制保障和风险意识。</p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;height: 5px;background-image: -webkit-linear-gradient(left, rgb(150, 46, 46), rgba(255, 247, 234, 0));background-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[关键词]空间危机；预警系统；风险评估；安全规划；风险素养</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[文章编号]1006-0022(2020)06-0050-06</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[中图分类号]TU984</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[文献标识码]B</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[引文格式] 倪庆梅，王颖芳．城镇空间危机预警系统研究[J]．规划师，2020(6)：50-55.</p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf89cYGAsuaRSpp136rsloggRciap32ZkibRic9qMHJXKczftiaNN5R75BqeR79Zf4VaiaJqzyBNd4xXSmGA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 空间危机的定义</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">著名危机管理专家罗森塔尔(Rosenthal) 认为，危<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">机是指“对一个社会系统的基本价值和行为准则架构产</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">生严重威胁，并在时间压力和不确定性极高的情况下必</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">须对其做出关键决策的事件”。人们平常谈论的危机，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">一般包括自然灾害( 如由地震、滑坡等造成的) 和由社</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">会原因导致的危机( 如经济下滑、动乱和恐怖袭击等)。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间危机，指与城镇空间密切相关的，影响</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共安全( 社会公众生命、健康、重大公私财产，以及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共生活) 的事件，一般具有突发性、破坏性、持续性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和衍生性。一方面，随着城市化进程的加快，自然因</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">素和人为因素，以及两者叠加造成的城镇空间危机逐</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">渐增多，如2003年的“非典”事件、2005 年的吉化</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“11·13”特大爆炸事故及松花江特别重大水污染事件、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2008年的汶川地震和2014年的上海外滩踩踏事件等。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面，以加速变化为特征的现代城市生活需求和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人流变动与城镇较稳定物质空间的适配失衡，亦会造</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">成一定的空间危机隐患。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf89cYGAsuaRSpp136rsloggRciap32ZkibRic9qMHJXKczftiaNN5R75BqeR79Zf4VaiaJqzyBNd4xXSmGA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 空间危机的预警</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一般而言，对于空间危机，人们常以事前、事中<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和事后三个阶段来应对。三个阶段均有</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">侧重，但重在事前防御。如果危机都能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在萌芽状态得以解决，那么后两个阶段</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">往往没有必要再实施，即使对于地震等</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">难以避免的自然灾害，提前预警也能最</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大程度地减少民众的损失和对环境的破</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">坏。因此，空间危机的预警尤为重要，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是危机应对的核心。同时，虽然许多危</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">机的产生具有随机性，但是不可否认，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">即使是随机事件，其发生还是有一定的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">演变规律，在科学的信息监控和预判下</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是有提前预警的可能性的。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我国的危机预警体系目前尚处于各<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">自分散的阶段，通常以单种灾害预警为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">主，主要是针对地质灾害如地震、泥石</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">流滑坡和山洪等灾害预警，对传染病及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其他公共安全事件预警较少。在城市规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划、空间规划领域则主要体现在城市综</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">合防灾规划方面，包括消防、防洪、抗</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">震和人防等内容，一般作为城市规划体</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">系中的一个专项规划，对于其他公共卫</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生事件和社会安全等的空间性预防涉及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">较少。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在此，本文通过对地质灾害及传染<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">病等预警体系的研究，尝试探讨整体的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间危机预警系统。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）地质灾害预警</p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.山洪地质灾害预警系统研究</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">山洪地质灾害预警系统主要包括风<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">险识别与评估、预警信息发布及抗灾能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">力建设。其中，风险识别与分析是预警中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的核心模块，重点为灾害风险分析和雨</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">水情自动监测系统：①灾害风险分析，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以广西山洪灾害防治为例，该防治工作</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以10～50km2的小流域单元为基础进</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">行资料收集，查清单元基本特征、暴雨</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">特质、人员分布、社会经济、历史山洪灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">害情况及小流域洪水规律等，划定山洪灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">害危险区，确定转移路线和临时避险点，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设置雨量预警指标和阈值。②雨水情</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">监视，包括雨情监视( 最新雨情、历史雨</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">情、降雨量分析、降雨量对比、降雨量</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">报表和历史期间对比等)、河道监视( 河</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">道水情查询、河道水位管理和水位余量</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">管理等)、水库监视( 水库水情查询和水</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">库水位管理等) 及视频监视。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.滑坡地质灾害预警系统研究</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分析预测降雨量和滑坡发生规则<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是滑坡地质灾害预警系统最基本的功</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">能。其中，滑坡发生规则提供了最关键</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的降雨对滑坡的触发机理与预警规则。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">影响滑坡稳定性的因素很多，除滑坡本</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">身所具有的内部特质如坡体结构、地层</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">岩性等，起决定性作用的往往是外部因</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">素，如降雨量、地下水、地震力及动态</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">外载等。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">总结发现，在地质灾害预警中较为<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重视预警系统的预警过程和预警标准体</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">系，包括灾害风险分析、灾害风险评估</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和预警系统建立，以及预警相关技术的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究(表1)，尤其是对灾害风险的基础</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">评估、事前确定转移路线和临时避险点，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对预警发生后的灾时应急具有重要意义。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">同时，在数据监控上则重在对日常动态</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据的监控。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.587963" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvyTZibwoRl9iaicxQtqMzrBM4uDxibcJuRUBb02OeQ0BYvONcqkeyBnT6Ng/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）传染病病毒预警</p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">传染病预警是指传染病暴发或流行<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发生前以及发生早期发出警示信号，以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">提醒暴发或流行可能发生或其发生的范</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">围可能扩大的风险。随着现代技术的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展和对流行病预测的重视，环球病毒</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">预警行动组织等机构及预警系统已逐渐</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建立。目前大多数国家都有着类似的预</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">警监控系统，我国2003年之后便建立</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">了传染病疫情报告制度，要求各级卫生</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">医疗机构在接触到传染病病例的时候根</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">据疾病的严重程度分级上报，同时还</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">建立了国家传染病自动预警系统(China </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">Infectious Disease Automatic-alert and </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">Response System，简称“CIDARS”)。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">传染病预警重在对预警数据的不断</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">提升( 表2)。预警数据一般包括三类：</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">①常规通用数据，主要是基于临床诊断</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">或实验室确诊的病例监测，以及药店、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">救护车派遣等非病例诊断数据监测；②对</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">特殊人群( 亦称为“哨兵人群”，指比其</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">他人具有更高的感染概率的人群)的监测</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据，如野生动植物学家健康信息、老</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人和幼儿等患病信息等；③其他相关影</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">响因素的监测数据，如气候、传播媒介</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">及动物数量和死亡率等。同时，预警模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型亦日益完善，从时间维度的监测、空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间维度的监测到时空预警模型，不断使</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">预警准确性得到进一步提升。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5742678" data-w="956" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvOhhPPmHLBVLUryNvwiaaUd95jBR9wMoXibCM1r9mrQTtJStxdycV5GMg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）城镇空间危机预警</p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关于城镇空间危机，从危机事件的<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">诱发因素上看，可以分为自然灾害危机、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人为事故危机、公共卫生事件危机和社</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">会安全事件危机四大类( 表3)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.818468" data-w="953" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvJWicL23frKhJZ7n0GbpaSbibibnVfZkibRWJrWicgFhxycnkJQqBaL1ia8kg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">同一个城镇空间有可能受到多种危<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">机的影响，但无论何种危机，城镇空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机预警应对的整体过程基本类似。本</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">文认为城镇空间危机预警的整体过程应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">包括空间风险评估、空间安全规划、空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间预警监控、空间预警决策及贯穿始终</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的预警技术研究(图1)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0387409" data-w="826" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvs9FFyRyDvL47eHOmMldAkwZibfO9QO74opibwNKwnCG8lJMlmsT9yrLg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.空间风险评估，以基础信息为源</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">针对不同种类的城镇空间危机，应<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">选取各自相关系数较大的空间风险致灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">因子和承灾因子。致灾因子由空间危机</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">类型决定，而风险承灾因子主要包括经</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">济环境承灾因子、社会环境承灾因子、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基础设施承灾因子和公共设施承灾因子</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">四类(表4)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.892094" data-w="936" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvdknItjxegGWTtGwibRtskMTJpqHfEF01Z4yMpwwibKJlGicPVELMg87Tw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">每个城镇根据实际情况，通过问卷<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">调查、专家打分等方式，选取本城镇合</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适的承灾因子，并按重要程度赋值，结</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">合SPSS统计软件，运用主成分分析等方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">法，综合分析打分，得到城镇空间危机</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">风险评估结果，指导城镇空间安全规划。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">同时，利用城镇空间风险分析的基础建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">立每个城镇的动态数据库，维持动态数</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">据更新，向公众定期公布基础数据及评</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">估信息。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.空间安全规划，以编制规划为纲</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间安全综合规划应结合城镇<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土空间规划编制，根据各地实际致灾</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">情况，尽量涵盖自然灾害、人为事故、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共卫生事件和社会安全事件四大空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机类型(亦可在各地城镇空间风险评估</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中明确)。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 整体规划与专项规划相结合。在<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划体系上，可以通过编制一系列专项</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划，形成整体规划，也可以结合城镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">空间规划，增加空间安全规划专题。专</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">项规划应不仅限于目前常有的消防、防</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">洪、抗震和人防等内容，可以更多地关</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">注自然灾害预防、工业危险源安全防控、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">防疫及紧急救护、交通安全管理、社会</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">治安防控等( 表5)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5245726" data-w="936" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvGT5YrVyOEEQeOZOpPTibZvHUHezvRJQZ94un3zJgvZutUqtiaYdBR4JA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 分级规划与应急预案相结合。在<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划内容上，根据空间风险评估结论和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间发展方向，确定空间风险等级</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分布图，对不同风险等级的空间进行分</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">类管控，对风险等级高的空间进行重点</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分析研究。风险区域图应根据危机预警、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机发生、危机蔓延及危机解除等不同</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">阶段实时动态更新。同时，针对不同类</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">型的空间危机，应进行应急预案设计，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">确定疏散通道、紧急避险线路及紧急避</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">难点等。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 重点管控与弹性应对相结合。在<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划特色上，一方面对生命线系统和重</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要的公共空间进行重点管控，尤其是关</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">注“五线空间”、公共人流集散空间与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大型密闭空间(表6)；另一方面，建立</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">弹性应对空间，针对空间危机造成的应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">急性空间需求改变，动态提升城镇空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的韧性和应变能力。例如，在应对重大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">流行性传染病时，应进行医疗卫生设施</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">布局，预留和建设大型医疗隔离区、应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">急基础设施；同时，利用公共体育馆、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展览馆、公园广场，甚至闲置的市场和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">商铺等作为应急的救护场地，以避免危</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">机应急时的重复建设。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3419355" data-w="930" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvzuosrsS0oia9hN3brxCbiahAwUic88UrJRwYgBvNUmkAOv8MEFgoQEVvA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.危机预警监控，以数据监控为本</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间的风险评估、安全规划和<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据监控应尽量在同一个坐标系及范围</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">框架下完成，实现“多图合一”，以便</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于监控数据的处理和反馈。危机预警监</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">控是整个城镇空间危机预警系统的关键，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">重在建立适合每个城镇本身的数据监控</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">模型，并对同一空间的多种危机可能性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和相关要素信息进行实时动态监控、提</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">取分析与叠合识别，为最终的预警判断</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和预警发布奠定基础。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文对城镇空间危机预警中常用的<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">监控数据做了相应分类(表7)，针对不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">同危机类型，可有重点地选取相应数据，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建立预警监控模型，进行实时监控和动</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">态模拟。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6752412" data-w="933" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvBXhENuibiahAq5atoIYiaoE4Q24Qce2hpeDEvlGCvlEOU5YP4Xp5XrVlg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">4.危机预警决策，以空间应急为要</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据现实发生的空间危机情况，应<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">以安全规划中的应急预案为基础，及时</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">调整应对方案。空间应急主要遵循两大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">原则，即应急覆盖全面化和应急响应快</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">速化。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 应急覆盖全面化。在空间危机<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">产生之后，应急决策应包含多个方面，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">如危机撤离方案、公共交通管制方案、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">卫生医疗方案、物资保障与分配方案、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">社区管控方案、心理辅导方案、社会稳</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定方案以及后期的城镇恢复和复工方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">案等。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 应急响应快速化。“天下武功唯<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">快不破”，决策迅速是控制危机蔓延的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">最有效方式。在此次新型冠状病毒肺炎</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">疫情中，浙江率先启动重大突发公共卫</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生事件一级响应，并推出了十大最严措</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">施，有效遏制了疫情的蔓延扩散。此外，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其余应对方案也应在第一时间发布决策</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和公布信息，以保障空间危机的全方位</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应对。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 11px;height: 11px;padding: 3px;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="height: 15px;margin-left: 5px;transform: rotate(30deg);transform-origin: 0px 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-top-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 219);border-right-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-bottom-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219);margin-right: 13px;margin-top: -3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">5.预警技术研究，以城市大脑为器</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">随着信息时代的到来，智能化处理<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和大数据应用成为推动城市发展与预警</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市危机的一大机遇。目前在城市规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和城市管理中，大数据较多地被应用于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对过去的评价和对当下的监控，而对于</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">未来信息的预判和研究较少，尤其是对</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市空间危机预警领域的研究。但大数</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">据依然为危机应急决策建立了良好的数</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">据支撑。例如，对空间危机发生后人流</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">流动的监控，可以为不同城市的疫情防</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">控提供预警，并为各地医疗卫生物资的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">再分配提供依据。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">相比数据监控对危机应急的作用，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">未来对数据背后的分析，如危机致灾机</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">理、人口流动机理、人口流动趋势判断</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和危机应急决策等研究将会对城镇空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机预警更有价值。换而言之，大数据</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应用及研究应像“城市大脑”般贯穿整</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个城镇空间危机预警系统的全过程。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf89cYGAsuaRSpp136rsloggRciap32ZkibRic9qMHJXKczftiaNN5R75BqeR79Zf4VaiaJqzyBNd4xXSmGA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 空间危机预警机制的完善</strong></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间的功能系统并不是真正意<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">义上的自动系统，它的运转需要人为的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">操作、服务、管理以及相应的制度保障。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">也就是说，应对城镇空间危机( 包括危机</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">预警、应急与恢复)，除了构建预警系统</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">全过程以外，更需要强化组织运作、物</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">质建设、法制保障和风险意识。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">完善危机处理机构(强化组织</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">运作)</span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在强化组织运作方面，应建立“中<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">枢指挥，专家决策”的危机处理机构。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">首先，对于一些小型的城镇空间危机，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇公安、消防部门足以单独完成。但</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">面对重大危机，尤其是会蔓延影响到城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市群、全国乃至全球的空间危机，仅靠</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">一个城市、单个职能部门是难以胜任的。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究发现，发达国家多年来危机管理成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">功的关键在于建立一个权威、高效、协</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">调的中枢指挥系统(表8)，在危机发生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">后该系统可以迅速行使紧急处置权，制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定应急决策，分配公共资源。2018年3月，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国成立了中华人民共和国应急管理部。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在成立9 个月内，该部门累计启动47次</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应急响应，效果显著。但同时，在“中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">枢指挥”特别是协调多机构协同救援方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">面，如航空、航海、医疗等多方协同的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应急配合和救援能力，还应不断完善和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">提升。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6927253" data-w="921" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaZnoSlpkHJFTtrB6HRpbHvvRtS3AWLKJicNNIthmAicpnV8xgO2FZSLkT4fZfI5JibFZzXrRQwzWuZQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其次，应多方听取专家建议。由于<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机形式的多元化和复杂性，需要相关</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">专家提供科学的判断，为危机处置提供</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">决策咨询。例如，在此次新型冠状病毒</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">肺炎危机下，多方专家提议的“封城”“交</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">通管制”“社区隔离”等措施是防止疫情</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">扩散等直接有效的方法。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">提高城镇“防疫建设”(强化</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">物质建设)</span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">空间危机是造成城市空间脆弱的诱<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发因素，而城市本身的社会组织制度、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">经济发展水平、城镇建设基础才是影响</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机蔓延程度和城市恢复速度的根本因</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">素。提高城镇抵御危机的能力是有效应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对空间危机的重要手段。对于不同城市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">甚至城市中的不同社区，危机造成的损</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">失不尽相同，其主要原因很大程度上取</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">决于所在城市或社区的“防疫建设”的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">承灾易损性差异。提高城镇“防疫建设”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的主要对策包括以下内容：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 加强工程建设，主要是针对老化<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基础设施的更新改造和应急工程建设。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其中，对城镇主要疏散通道、避难点要</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">进行定期维护，预留物质保障性设施空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间；同时，加强网络基础设施建设，既</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">可以保证对危机事件的及时响应，又能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适应云办公、云教育和云医疗等未来生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">活生产方式的趋势。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2)加强公共建设，主要是针对医疗、<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">教育、养老等服务设施的建设和弹性空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间的预留，尤其是在规划设计阶段就应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">考虑重要医疗设施周边的酒店、学校和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大型场馆等的弹性化设计。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 加强社区建设，主要是针对老旧<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">小区的更新改造以及未来社区、安全健康</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">社区建设。社区作为城市的基本单元，是</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">每个人保障自我安全的最后一道防线。建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">议推广浙江“未来社区”中封闭式管理单</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">元划分等社区规划管理要求，预留疫情</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等城镇危机下的应急管控条件，同时加</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">强建筑单体的运营弹性和适应性设计。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">健全应急管理法律(强化法制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">保障)</span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2003年的“非典”事件以后，我国<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">颁布了《突发公共卫生事件应急条例》，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共卫生应急处理工作进入了法制化轨</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">道；2007 年，我国颁布了《中华人民共</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和国突发事件应对法》；2008 年，在抗</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">击南方雨雪冰冻灾害和应对“5·12”汶</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">川特大地震后，一些有关的国际公约和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">协定、突发事件应急预案也逐渐补充了</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国应急管理法律法规体系。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">但整体而言，我国的应急管理法律</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">体系还有待不断完善。一是法律规范体</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">系的建设，包括完善紧急状态法律制度</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和应急预案法律制度[8]，同时应将非政</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">府力量参与应急救援纳入应急管理法律</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">体系。二是对单一类型突发危机和有关</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">领域进行专门立法，强化应急管理法律</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">法规的针对性和可操作性。三是政府行</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">政权力规制，重点完善应急管理中的责</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">任追究机制。四是公民合法权益保障，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">包括最低人权保障制度和公民权利救济</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">制度。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 7px;height: 7px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;font-size: 17px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（四）<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">培养城镇“风险素养”(强化</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">风险意识)</span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 7px;height: 7px;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“风险素养”是指区分不同程度风<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">险和应对不同程度风险的能力。一个城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇的“风险素养”不光体现的是政府和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">管理部门在应对危机时的迅速反应能力，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">更需要全体民众提高日常的危机意识，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">并在危机发生时能镇定听从指挥，发挥</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个体应对危机的能力。如果说“文化基因”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">是一个城镇历史存在的证明，“风险素养”</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">则是其未来发展的保证。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">培养城镇的“风险素养”，应开展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">社会公众的危机应对教育，有效共享应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">急知识，具体策略主要包括：①长期开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展公益宣传，提高公众危机意识；②通</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">过网络媒体等最便捷的方式，全面普及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机应对时的预防、避险、自救、互救</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等知识和技能；③联合单位或社区开展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机情景训练，提高应对实践能力。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf89cYGAsuaRSpp136rsloggRciap32ZkibRic9qMHJXKczftiaNN5R75BqeR79Zf4VaiaJqzyBNd4xXSmGA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);border-bottom: 8px ridge rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;padding: 8px 10px;border-left-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(238, 238, 238);padding: 0px 8px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四 展望</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 4px;transform: rotate(0deg);float: left;margin-top: -3px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);margin-top: -2px;border-right-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);border-bottom-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);border-left-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 100%;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间的运行将一直在有序和无<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">序之间动态平衡，既有一定的规则和秩</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">序，又有很多无法预料的变动和危机。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">危机，是“危”，却也是“机”。每一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">次危机都是人类和城镇学会更好生存和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展的机会。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">安全是人类生存和发展的基本需求，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共安全更应当作为城镇国土空间规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的底线。通过对城镇空间危机预警系统</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的研究，以及对未来可能性的探讨，期</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">望能对城镇空间危机的应对工作和城镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共安全的建设有所启示。</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p></section></section><section style="width: 100%;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 4px;margin-top: -2px;float: right;transform: rotate(0deg);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 4px;height: 4px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: 0.5em;float: left;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);margin-top: -2px;margin-bottom: 2px;border-right-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);border-bottom-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);border-left-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf89cYGAsuaRSpp136rsloggRciap32ZkibRic9qMHJXKczftiaNN5R75BqeR79Zf4VaiaJqzyBNd4xXSmGA/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;vertical-align: top;padding: 15px;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(218, 107, 107);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(110, 110, 110);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来源：2020年06期《规划师》杂志</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新媒体编辑：刘晓莹</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">审读：刘芳</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 0px 1.5em;margin-bottom: -35px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 10px;width: 100%;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》杂志2020年06期</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇空间危机预警系统研究</span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">》</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 24px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="float: left;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"><section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);margin-left: 23px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 16px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 46);border-right: 1px solid rgb(150, 46, 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rgb(247, 177, 32);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-color: white;width: 1.6em;height: 1.6em;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.5em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">多</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 4px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(247, 177, 32);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-color: white;width: 1.6em;height: 1.6em;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.5em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">精</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 4px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(247, 177, 32);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-color: white;width: 1.6em;height: 1.6em;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.5em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">彩</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(67, 103, 117);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">请猛戳右边二维码</strong></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 38.2%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(67, 103, 117);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公众号ID</p><p style="clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="430" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhbsUAKOpyf4bnsQdGGMYmlwNIS4Lq7NjTLOG3lULkzHzuczJk8m0oxYAFNRqAPVIUaWF26Fn0SVA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 9px;height: 9px;float: left;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-left: 2px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 9px;height: 9px;float: right;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-right: 2px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section>
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