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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(67, 106, 154) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"><span style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;">中国收缩城市的</span><span style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></strong></p><p style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;"><span style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;">人口变化格局评价</span><span style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></strong></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><strong style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">本报告由百度地图慧眼与清华大学建筑学院人居环境信息实验室、北京城市实验室、中国城市科学研究会城市大数据专业委员会联合研究发布，合作方发挥各自在时空大数据分析研究领域的资源、技术优势，形成一系列在城乡规划行业中具有前瞻性的研究成果，并不断促进研究成果的转化与应用。双方协作研究的领域涵盖城镇化发展动态监测与预测、城市空间分析评估与模拟、城市空间决策支持与咨询、人工智能与城市智慧管理、国土空间规划新技术探索等。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(67, 106, 154) rgb(255, 169, 172);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 13px;padding-left: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">龙瀛、孟祥凤、马爽、项雯怡、阚长城<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(67, 106, 154) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">0</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">引言</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">20世纪末，在全球化、去工业化、郊区化、人口老龄化等因素的交叠影响下，城市收缩逐渐席卷全球，成为城市发展的“新常态”。改革开发近40年来，我国经济发展取得举世瞩目的成就，城镇化建设如火如荼，直到近几年，部分城市的人口开始流失，引起了全国各界的广泛关注，学界也从不同维度对其展开研究。但我国城市实体与行政区划范围、城市实际人口与户籍人口存在二元割裂的情况，这在增加研究难度的同时降低了收缩城市研究的现实意义。对此，清华大学建筑学院龙瀛团队利用全国城镇建设用地识别出了包括县城在内的3022个实体城市（最小面积为2km2），并在此基础上与百度地图慧眼合作，获取2016年11月与2018年11月百度慧眼常住人口数据（以下简称常住人口），探究中国人口的变化规律。分析结果显示2016-2018年我国常住人口减少的城市共1506个，占3022个城市的34.9%。人口减少的实体城市中，有178个实体城市的常住人口减少比例在15%以上（详见BCL北京城市实验室：<span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">https://www..com/projects-1/31-redefining-chinese-city-system/;马爽, 龙瀛. 中国城市实体地域识别: 社区尺度的探索[J]. 城市与区域规划研究, 2019, 11(1) :9-16；https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9FXOquNPg4t6RgGth_8TpA;马爽, 龙瀛，等.中国实体城市的常住人口变化：针对中国3022个实体城市基于百度慧眼数据的探索）。</span></p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">目前，国内外针对收缩城市的研究主要集中于收缩城市的概念界定（Wiechmann, 2008; 龙瀛等, 2015; 吴康, 2019）、定量识别（Alves, 2016; 罗小龙, 2018）、原因机制分析（Fernandez et al., 2012）、影响及问题探讨（龙瀛等, 2016）和规划应对（高舒琦等，2017）等方面，关于收缩城市的人口变化格局研究相对较少。国外的部分研究根据收缩城市的人口流动特征对其人口变化格局进行了初步的划分（Blanco et al., 2009），如以前民主德国地区为代表的“穿孔型”收缩、以美国锈带城市为代表的“圈饼型”收缩、以法国巴黎为代表的反圈饼型收缩。国内已有对于城市收缩的人口变化格局研究仍将城市行政区划与2000和2010年的常住人口作为主要研究单元与数据基础（张明斗等，2019; 何鹤鸣等，2018），研究成果缺乏时效性与城市内尺度的空间分析价值。</p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文结合龙瀛团队关于“中国城市实体地域识别”与2019年基于百度地图慧眼数据的“中国实体城市常住人口变化”等研究的基础上，对收缩率在15%以上的178个实体城市进行深入研究，探索中国城市收缩背景下的人口变化格局（shrinking pattern），为城市发展重心的调整、整合土地利用结构、提高城市宜居性、进行收缩语境下的城市规划与设计应对提供研究基础。本文结论部分中所提及的城市，均指实体城市。请读者注意，实体城市不是行政意义的城市，而是实体地域的城市（即具有一定规模的连续的城镇建设用地构成的居民点）。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(67, 106, 154) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据来源与处理</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">为了实现收缩城市范围内人口变化格局的有效分析，我们在178个实体城市范围内，创建精度为200m* 200m的网格，选取常住人口数量大于100的网格（即人口密度>2500人/平方公里）共 7796个 ,计算网格内2016-2018年的常住人口变化比率，具体方法为：（2018年11月的常住人口数据-2016年11月常住人口数据）／2016年11月的常住人口数据。筛选出常住人口变化率ratio小于0（ratio＜0）的网格，共计5660个，占比为72.6%；ratio=0 的网格的数量为44个，占比为0.6% ；ratio﹥0的网格的数量为2092个，占比为26.8%（表1）。其中常住人口变化率小于0的即发生人口流失的网格。将常住人口减少比率进行分组，统计其对应的网格数量占比（图1），分析发现常住人口减少比率在10%~20%之间的网格数量占比最高，此外，5660个常住人口流失的网格中80.5% 的网格常住人口减少比率在0%~40%之间。</span></p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7740741" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnrianNfbWPGJOHnLg3hVurppYibQictmJiafLBHKC6WU5FSbh2ia5pKzIGfQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据各实体城市内部发生人口流失（ratio＜0）的网格数量对参与测算</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">的实体城市进行进一步筛选，通过多次尝试，在178 个实体城市范围内提取</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">出发生人口流失（ratio＜0）的网格数量≧10 的实体城市作为后续的研究对</span>象<span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;">，最终确定满足条件的实体城市为126 个（图2），在此基础上进行收缩</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">城市人口变化格局的判定。通过以上分析可知，参与测算的实体城市主要具</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">有以下特征：一是实体城市的常住人口减少比率在15%以上；二是实体城</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;">市内每个分析网格的人口密度>2500 人/平方公里；</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;">三是实体城市内发生人</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">口减少的网格数量≧10。从图2 可以看出满足以上条件即人口密度达到一</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">般及以上水平且常住人口收缩率较高的实体城市主要分布于我国的东北、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">西北及东部沿海的部分地区。此外，在126 个实体城市中，面积在2 km^2-</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">5km^2之间的有65 个，占比51.6%，面积在5 km^2-10km^2 之间的有42 个，占</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">比33.3%，面积>10km^2 的有19 个，占比15.1%。其中，面积在10km^2 以上</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">的实体城市具体包括吉林市昌邑区、北京市顺义区1、玉门市主城等，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">详见</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;">图2、表2。</span></p></li></ul><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7268519" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LncqCibl79fZ29bHV8n5cpociaGHY9YsU3sZClOvGc7ErXgVXFV4xckfSw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1953704" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1Ln8Dl6XIc4ibialEK6WxrOrvlXfrQCiclILf4rCzMQHKx611wsaqbYu2SuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.744469" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnibnLhtdnQjt840QEx8iag3HY3vCRGibObpcYICWHwVCndGFia6lKOb3WnA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(49, 128, 189) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">识别标准</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据国内外已有的相关研究（高舒琦，2015;马佐澎等，2016; Schetke S,et al,2008），收缩城市的人口变化格局主要包括全局收缩（Complete shrinkage）、局部收缩（Local shrinkage）、中心收缩（Central shrinkage）、圈层收缩（Peripheral shrinkage）及穿孔型收缩（Scatter shrinkage）五种。综合考虑126个实体城市内部常住人口减少的网格数量、面积及其空间分布形态，确定中国收缩城市人口变化格局（shrinking pattern）的识别标准（表3），首先，实体城市内常住人口减少的网格数量占城市内网格总量的70%以上，且常住人口减少的网格面积占实体城市面积的50%以上的确定为全局收缩的实体城市；全局收缩以外的实体城市人口变化格局的判定主要依据常住人口减少的网格在各实体城市内的空间分布形态。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8453704" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1Ln6ZBuGmdAfcWicGAVlkkPj5xWbPT2MPccFUScO0rglq3CQef5fKOO7kA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(49, 128, 189) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 40px;height: 40px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结果分析</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于以上标准，首先测算每个实体城市内2016-2018年常住人口减少的网格数量占城市内网格总量的比例及常住人口减少的网格面积占实体城市面积的比例。借助ArcGIS10.2的软件分析平台，将测算结果链接到实体城市的GIS图层中；其次，将7796个常住人口变化比率的网格与筛选出的126个实体城市进行套合，在应用相等间隔的方法对7796个常住人口变化比率进行分级处理的基础上，结合定义间隔的方法将常住人口减少的即ratio﹤0的网格划分为一个分级[-1,0)，形成实体城市的常住人口变化比率的网格空间分布图。</p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">通过观察常住人口减少的网格数量、面积占比及实体城市常住人口减少的网格在城市内部的空间分布状态，确定126个收缩城市中发生穿孔型收缩的城市最多，达47个，其次为全局收缩33个，圈层收缩的数量最少，为3个（表4）。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3435185" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1Ln0W2cibicFpBeCP4Yc7WDhQiaibhN3xgDN6Kb5VmeXto2pVgjTxD63icsGrw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">表5为面积在10km^2以上的实体城市人口变化格局，从表5可以看出，面积在10km^<span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px;box-sizing: border-box;">2以上的19个实体城市中呈现穿孔型收缩格局的城市达9个，占比近50%，多为等级较高的省会城市和地级城市中的实体地域，包括我国首都北京的顺义区，由于政策倾斜及资源的导向性，使面积较大的实体城市在收缩初期以穿孔型的空间格局为主；其次为中心收缩，包括：静宁县主城、科尔沁左翼中旗主城、科尔沁左翼中旗副城1、同江市主城、榆树市副城5个；此外，全局收缩的实体城市仅有沙湾县主城、土默特左旗主城、同心县主城3个，源于面积在10km^2以上大部分实体城市其收缩网格的面积占比较小；局部收缩的实体城市有鸡西市城子河区1与绥滨县主城两个，从初步分析的结果来看，面积较大的实体城市中缺少圈层收缩的人口分布格局。</span></p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2196796" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnUfYHDVVNFCQAnSrBabbkpriabsicqMlmxicjiawwJSkVa9bflicnrl23v1g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="874" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">为了更加直观的呈现126个实体城市人口变化格局的具体情况，我们绘制了相应的人口变化格局分布图。图3为全局收缩的实体城市（33个），图4为局部收缩的实体城市（25个），图5为中心收缩的实体城市（18个），图6为圈层收缩的实体城市（3个），图7为穿孔型收缩的实体城市（47个）。图3-7中NP指常住人口减少的网格数量占城市内网格总量的比例，AP指常住人口减少的网格面积占实体城市面积的比例，具体情况见图3-7（为了便于对比，各图比例尺相同）。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0898148" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1Lnyv6FUPMPLaZoeBgDnGUoOQebHJia0icicwR0qF2QJgZmibticZIAf1CIvjQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2840095" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnHgK12hJicmeqwbNE4ZkTaQPqy6e5ww0dicibsicaNYVafNokE10xRgolJg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="838" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6231481" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1Ln8PZdB1CRMggzD1ZiapjBicMJ7Yve1vDiamULR1BYhNV9Rbha3soiaryo4Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4824074" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnYSdFHZWz86LAsABnIVKBLlxmZ7ewGDfyDiadzDqN52SGWBImturibqzw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.4557522" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnXxFTwUwBnP7s1XfjB6FCngR4eP8waVw5Yvebn2sgSlCF9vicnR91sNg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="904" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究结果显示（表6）：发生全局收缩的较多为面积较小的县级实体城市，主要集中于我国的西北内陆腹地，可能源于区域经济发展的差异性以及气候、地形等因素驱使大量人口向外流出；</p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口变化格局为局部收缩的实体城市主要为黑龙江省、内蒙古自治区及新疆维吾尔族自治区的资源型城市与进行行政区划调整的城市，如黑龙江省的伊春市被誉为“森林之都”，是我国重要的木材后备基地（全国资源型城市可持续发展规划（2013-2020年）），其早期经济发展以木材的输出与加工为主，随着林地面积的不断减少及我国森林资源保护力度的不断加强，林木工业的发展逐渐衰退，产业结构的单一性及产业转型滞后使其经济发展停滞不前，人口大量流出。吉林省的农安县2015年进行了行政区划的调整，升级为省直管县隶属长春市（吉林省统计年鉴，2016），可能为其人口流失的主要原因；</p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口空间格局为中心收缩的实体城市主要分布于内蒙古自治区，其次为甘肃省与江苏省，其中包头市为内蒙古自治区典型的煤矿资源型城市，由于煤炭资源储量下降，主导产业衰落导致人口外流，此外，察哈尔右翼后旗、科尔沁左翼中旗及甘肃平凉市的静宁县均为我国的国家级贫困县，青壮劳动力外出务工的现象较为普遍（中国扶贫网，2019），江苏省的江都市截至2018年末人口自然增长率为-2.7‰，人口老龄化较为严重，且医药化工、汽车、机械电子等城市主导产业的产值均呈下降态势（江都年鉴，2018）；</p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">圈层型收缩的实体城市包括黑龙江省的抚远县主城；海南省的白沙黎族自治县；陕西省的洛川县，其人口减少的区域包围在人口增加的网格外围，体现了内城繁荣外城衰落的空间形态；</p></li><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">最后，穿孔型收缩在我国的分布最为广泛，且多为市辖区，黑龙江省分布较多，源于资源的枯竭，某一个工厂的停产倒闭，地方政府的投资等等一些偏小尺度的波动都会导致城市内部部分地区的人口流动与空间失序（表6）。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.1189931" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnmfqSFWMh2jKgFzDGLUbDA4yunlQqdQdkzGJ0wU0m9LkdF47OUQrP3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="874" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(49, 128, 189) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结语</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(107, 171, 221);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><ul class="list-paddingleft-2" style=""><li><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文基于龙瀛团队已有的关于中国实体城市识别及其常住人口变化的研究基础上，结合百度地图慧眼数据对中国收缩城市的人口变化格局进行了初步探索。通过分析研究，我们将中国收缩城市的人口分布格局划分为全局收缩、局部收缩、中心收缩、圈层收缩和穿孔型收缩五个类型，发现126个人口深度收缩的实体城市主要分布于我国的东北、西北及东部沿海的部分城市，其中穿孔型收缩的数量占比较高（37.3%），多为面积较大的市辖区实体城市，其次为全局收缩（26.2%）以面积较小的县级实体城市为主，圈层收缩的数量占比最低（2.4%）。19个面积在10km^2以上的实体城市中以穿孔型收缩格局为主，占比近50%，其他类型的人口分布格局占比较小，缺少圈层收缩的人口分布格局。导致城市收缩的原因较为复杂，究其根本原因可归纳为资源枯竭、主导产业衰落、区域经济发展不平衡、行政区划调整、人口老龄化等社会、经济、政治因素和地形、气候等自然因素。本研究利用2018年11月、2016年11月百度地图慧眼数据，虽然经过校对，但研究结果有待证实，不代表所在单位观点，仅作为一次有限的科研探索。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 40px;width: 40px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnlabSMDiabD7OBDQfooEgutgzJRzxPRY3KMrtCl361OKMLS7MG7J1s7A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-top: 2px;padding-bottom: 2px;border-style: solid none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(49, 128, 189) rgb(255, 169, 172);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 70.0014%;align-self: center;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">参考文献</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.4175589" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnbczRaXB66g2kTib8ibjRY0m5p6l8t39OtcVjd9MwnwFKpueXu2dlQQqQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="934" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5221053" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/J47xvAibNt7IcicmicHEZ5x9IsJBRicRp1LnT9VnvYzsyE4mKhG5N8owlCWnibvgUEk7HrWd6uprlJM0czdC4O1w4EA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="950" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /><span style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;"></span></section></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section><h2><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5ODI3ODQ3Ng==&mid=2653252826&idx=1&sn=e5a59097d1c1adcfe56c5983b780bb7e&chksm=bd1ce8f98a6b61efe6545d2d9a34c7f84d710da0b5c193514471215563277729286d5444df8a&scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="中国实体城市的常住人口变化| 针对中国3022个实体城市基于百度慧眼数据的探索，请点击文末的“阅读原文”深入了解探索。" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2"><span style="color: rgb(123, 12, 0);text-decoration: underline;">中国实体城市的常住人口变化| 针对中国3022个实体城市基于百度慧眼数据的探索，请点击文末的“阅读原文”深入了解探索。</span><span style="color: rgb(123, 12, 0);text-decoration: underline;"></span></a></h2><section powered-by="gulangu" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section powered-by="gulangu" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: 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