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<p class="XiGuaChajian" style="display:none;" data-tools="西瓜插件，运行于电脑浏览器上的插件，可在公众号后台找优质文章素材，一键美化排版，检测文章违规，查看任意公众号粉丝阅读数" data-label="Power by：chajian.xiguaji.com"><br  /></p><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 10px;border-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-right-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(32, 14, 11);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">秦小珍</strong>　中山大学地理科学与规划学院博士研究生</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>郑莎莉</strong>　中山大学地理科学与规划学院硕士研究生</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">指导老师：</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">李郇　</strong>中山大学中国区域协调发展与乡村建设研究院院长，中山大学地理科学与规划学院教授、博导</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">版权说明</strong>：感谢作者授权发布，如有转载等事宜，请联系原作者。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.0613333" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icn8ev9IGgMQL0VYeZ3sNXiawUOSVBbEvIVNdlXicXSpvHEoyM0txXsSs6iaSAjkbuKMv91NBYYzEIUQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="750" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;vertical-align: top;border-width: 3px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(242, 176, 41);padding-right: 25px;padding-left: 25px;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(242, 176, 41);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 0, 26);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">CATALOGUE</p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 26);line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">机器代人系列目录</strong></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(49, 49, 49);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NTUxODAzOQ==&mid=2650768333&idx=1&sn=6985d647d0fed4e631dcdb1ccf29bd91&chksm=befc60f5898be9e34a42f21596a7858917acaab71ffdfb6b098119fc67e357b677218d6b324d&scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="01 机器代人，珠三角替代率10%" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2"><span style="color: rgb(120, 172, 254);">01 机器代人，珠三角替代率10%</span></a><span style="color: rgb(120, 172, 254);"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NTUxODAzOQ==&mid=2650768334&idx=1&sn=6a03739bc5808b5670e341e01207bd47&chksm=befc60f6898be9e070977a0aecdff4df2ddcfbf2b29d5dbc5dbbc313476d33beaba83c83c270&scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="02 珠三角哪些工作会被机器替代？" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(120, 172, 254);">02 珠三角哪些工作会被机器替代？</span></a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(120, 172, 254);"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NTUxODAzOQ==&mid=2650768336&idx=1&sn=5e372e2a9d0798802fb258891d1a0d66&chksm=befc60e8898be9fe8c0a55836a3cb12a3e69bd3d4e7a12babd42e41de2a6f67c204a9aa75d3e&scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="03 机器代人换来了多少效率？" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(120, 172, 254);">03 机器代人换来了多少效率？</span></a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(120, 172, 254);"></span><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">04 几年回本，企业就会愿意用机器代人？</span><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">05 “机器代人”如何优化城镇空间品质——以顺德为例</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">06 “代人”的机器人企业，亦生亦长于珠三角</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">07 纺织服装行业能全自动化吗？</span></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 5px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(242, 176, 41);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.0613333" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icn8ev9IGgMQL0VYeZ3sNXiawUOSVBbEvIVNdlXicXSpvHEoyM0txXsSs6iaSAjkbuKMv91NBYYzEIUQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="750" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　近年来，中国制造业企业中掀起了一场以“机器代人”为标志的产业变革，越来越多的企业使用自动化设备来代替劳动力进行生产。多方面原因共同导致了“机器代人”浪潮的出现，一方面人工智能等技术的快速进步使得设备可应用的范围越来越广，设备的价格也不断下降；另一方面中国劳动力市场面临着劳工紧缺、招工难、人工成本不断上涨等问题。在这种技术成本-人工成本的推拉作用下，企业开始更青睐于设备，而逐渐舍弃了人力。<br  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　虽然影响企业是否采用“机器代人”的因素是多方面的，但就企业层面来看，会不会选择“机器代人”，其根本取决于到底是用机器更便宜，还是用人力更便宜？</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section powered-by="gulangu" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.6666667" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB7icn8ev9IGgMQL0VYeZ3sNXiaUEuJRpRyXLC5qkibGMnLXUutH0qlZE4YclAckeq0c3tOcpfwzpgEGJg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section powered-by="gulangu" style="font-size: 12px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">图源：</span></strong><strong><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);">pexels</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section><section powered-by="gulangu" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　企业在开展自动化改造前，都会对改造项目进行财务核算，决定是否启动改造取决于回本年限是否在企业能够承受的范围内。如果假定机器生产和人工生产模式下的年产量、利润相同，那么<span style="background-color: rgba(254, 226, 0, 0.41);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">回本年限就是企业购买自动化设备投入与可被替代人工每年成本的倍数</strong></span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　通过对进行“机器代人”企业回本年限的测算，可以发现整体上来看，企业进行“机器代人”前期设备投入的回本年限平均为4-5年，即说明当企业投入一套设备可以在4-5年内回本的话，企业就会选择使用机器生产。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　在实地企业访谈中，企业管理者也表示如果财务部门核算某个自动化改造项目能够在1-2年内实现回本，企业基本都会选择实施。如果回本年限更长，企业就会根据自身发展前景和改造紧迫性再做决定。自动化生产是一个循序渐进的过程，企业一般会优先选择回本年限短的环节进行改造。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><section powered-by="gulangu" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 14px;white-space: normal;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 516.594px;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.4916667" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icn8ev9IGgMQL0VYeZ3sNXiazQndjxlgx9MThYtHIT83EUdgqjvIpEyuXe8JSibBvxQcSIFcSDh3vvQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 516.594px;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section powered-by="gulangu" style="white-space: normal;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">企业“机器代人”的回本年限</strong></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　回本年限是企业衡量采用“机器代人”是否合算的一个关键指标，但不同行业所能接受的回本年限长短略有不同。从具体行业来看，纺织业，皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业，木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业等行业的回本年限相对较短，主要集中在2-3年；金属制品业，通用设备制造业，专用设备制造业和交通运输设备制造业等行业的回本年限相对较高，主要集中在4-6年。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　这种<span style="background-color: rgba(254, 226, 0, 0.41);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">行业间回本年限的差异一定程度上与行业生产特性相关的</strong></span>，设备制造类企业多为资金密集型产业，其生产过程中依赖于多种加工设备的辅助，这些行业的自动化改造投入也必然相对较高。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">　　虽然“机器代人”确确实实能为企业解决部分生产和劳动力的问题，但受限于生产设备技术的局限，当前的机器生产并不能满足市场不确定性所要求的随时更换的弹性生产需求。因此，“机器代人”同样存在一定的风险。技术改造投入和成本回本问题的确是企业选择时所需考虑的重要问题，但是否满足企业弹性生产的需求也同样十分关键。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 12px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">初审：李郇</span></p><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">审核：刘晔</span></p><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">终审：邓孺孺</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 8px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(206, 180, 141);height: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(206, 180, 141);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">◆ ◆ ◆ ◆</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 8px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(206, 180, 141);height: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(105, 105, 105);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" 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