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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPtwkSjCZtgMmOSMic5luvas1hIV5QrrrqkYxlPS8Lt0WJVWZ9eLcshbw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="1.4148148148148147" data-w="1080"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0% -8px;transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 40%;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow-y: auto;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;"><section style="overflow-x: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(160, 160, 160, 0.62);height: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(160, 160, 160, 0.62);height: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: -30px;height: 30px;"><section style="height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg width="40%" height="100%" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="box-sizing: border-box transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);" opacity="0"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="100%" height="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;" x="51.4876%"><svg width="100%" height="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><rect width="100%" height="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;opacity: 1;fill: rgb(254, 254, 254);" x="0%"></rect></svg><svg style="width: 100%;height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><text x="50%" y="50%" fill="#000000" style="stroke: rgb(0, 0, 0);stroke-width: 1;font-size: 32px;text-anchor: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"> </text></svg><animate attributename="x" style="box-sizing: border-box;" fill="freeze" dur="4" repeatcount="indefinite" begin="0s" keytimes="0;0.5;1" values="100%;0%;-100%"></animate></svg><animate attributename="opacity" style="box-sizing: border-box;" fill="freeze" begin="0s" dur="0.01" from="0" to="1"></animate></svg></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 32%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 95%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPODiciaBpicjDkA4fhFx3Y12ppc1fvibt3fG3NGPDtUnTiaiajBJAB8kaFB5w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="2.0088235294117647" data-w="340"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 32%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 95%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPicvtmGt9zHfbpoDH790G4p1RFWAldEkkyhNl4Ks0WAyGODN0psBoKgw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="1.9912536443148687" data-w="343"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 32%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 95%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZP2PMAjOmTRTwh6xjjH6VbbteHjkibTkYwHuibsic9uryom0VFwkJq8uZTQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" data-ratio="1.9912536443148687" data-w="343"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% -5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: right;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 3px;padding: 0px 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">抗击冠状病毒肺炎特刊</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(149, 218, 243);box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">无以忧国 | 唯以读书</span></p></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 40%;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow-y: auto;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;"><section style="overflow-x: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 22px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(160, 160, 160, 0.62);height: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(160, 160, 160, 0.62);height: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: -30px;height: 30px;"><section style="height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg width="40%" height="100%" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="box-sizing: border-box transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-moz-transform: rotateZ(0deg);-o-transform: rotateZ(0deg);" opacity="0"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="100%" height="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;" x="-51.4876%"><svg width="100%" height="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><rect width="100%" height="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;opacity: 1;fill: rgb(254, 254, 254);" x="0%"></rect></svg><svg style="width: 100%;height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><text x="50%" y="50%" fill="#000000" style="stroke: rgb(0, 0, 0);stroke-width: 1;font-size: 32px;text-anchor: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"> </text></svg><animate attributename="x" style="box-sizing: border-box;" fill="freeze" dur="4" repeatcount="indefinite" begin="0s" keytimes="0;0.5;1" values="-100%;0%;100%"></animate></svg><animate attributename="opacity" style="box-sizing: border-box;" fill="freeze" begin="0s" dur="0.01" from="0" to="1"></animate></svg></section></section></section><section style="margin: 20px 0%;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 60%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgba(95, 156, 239, 0.69);background-color: rgba(191, 225, 238, 0.61);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-shadow: rgb(191, 225, 238) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(110, 115, 117);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一览众山小</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgba(191, 225, 238, 0.61);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(110, 115, 117);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sustainable</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgba(191, 225, 238, 0.61);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(110, 115, 117);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Cities &</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgba(191, 225, 238, 0.61);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(110, 115, 117);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mobility</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px solid rgba(191, 225, 238, 0.61);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(179, 179, 179);padding: 0px 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(110, 115, 117);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划与发展战略</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">城市综合交通</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">公共交通与非机动化出行</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">活力街区、街道与城市设计</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">量化城市与大数据</span></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(110, 115, 117);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">「」</strong></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;padding: 0px 5px;color: rgb(110, 115, 117);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2020年<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> | 1</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">月28日期</span></strong></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 40%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;font-size: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;box-shadow: rgb(191, 225, 238) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.9324074" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPLEiaO4S8mDR3b21Kia4bL2qDLib2YCibOGyrMN6uzfeb0wcySmyWb1Tsxg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 5px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;">团队成员</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 15px 10px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/nrNVczDZJ8meTUkEHI80qwic0X5yjfbew8Ru6r5Zu0FddibOTITSF2nqytxOiar4fp85OcibLAGOMOnCiabPzW3V8sg/640?wx_fmt=png");background-position: 25.8037% -43.1473%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 29.7866%;background-attachment: scroll;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 50%;border-right: 1px dashed rgb(127, 127, 127);border-top-right-radius: 0px;padding: 0px 10px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 21px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">1</span></em></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 90%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPlJkxhompSYxeOw3vibKymgC655F5nPSmiaWqNpyTAo8BZMMPH5mEbZ4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 50%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 21px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">2</span></em></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 90%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="264" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZP9hGVpFHSibG3QOxianuVoFKyZolGHoCIGDP8R6rk6h6Gib1t7osAf8nQw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(133, 134, 135);box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 50%;border-right: 1px dashed rgb(127, 127, 127);border-top-right-radius: 0px;padding: 0px 10px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 21px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</em></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 90%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9hUqvCTuPLMcEdyzqjq3731NC2CNHhkvrBpafAoVBofcTxia740Vw2jBjF9Cw9CZQwA1diad1J0Aaw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 50%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 21px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</em></span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 90%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPWftYF7xoia7drxLeMmCRTsL3XqmL3kFe8zx6nC0E0FAbLpyVt8GO1bg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(133, 134, 135);box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 50%;border-right: 1px dashed rgb(127, 127, 127);border-top-right-radius: 0px;padding: 0px 10px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 21px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">5</span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 90%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9hUqvCTuPLMcEdyzqjq373lwdB7DAjTl7ahYS7PmaeRVJuueU8Kkxfm3NSVaiahknZP7JoD3pejuw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 50%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 21px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;text-decoration:underline;">6</span></em></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 90%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="264" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia9v6kuRT0v6eD3tUHNkSHEBjpLGefKUb8QibSMqsbkt2n4zR5vLuDicr04H9mwszqGxiaHhy47rX48cQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;padding: 0px 20px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">原文</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">/ Natsuko Imai、Anne Cori、Ilaria Dorigatti、Marc Baguelin、 Christl A. Donnelly、Steven Riley、Neil M. Ferguson</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">原文机构</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">/世界卫生组织传染病模型合作中心、MR全球传染病分析中心、J-IDEA、英国伦敦帝国理工学院</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">翻译</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">/ 朱怡、柯晟、相欣奕  </span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">编辑</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">/ 众山小    <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">校核</strong>/ 相欣奕</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">文献</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">/ 陈坤杰    <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">排版</strong>/ 刘雨卿</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">注</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">/ 本文于2020年1月20日发布，以供与世界卫生组织、各国政府和学术网络共享的一篇分析报告。一览众山小经由公开渠道下载，并做中文翻译并分享。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 12%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPYay4ZdoZBicCGpO3QU7BCCnolVHK4JfkHf21icp6UMqRkO9OZjDVCkQw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0% 20px;transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 8%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPYay4ZdoZBicCGpO3QU7BCCnolVHK4JfkHf21icp6UMqRkO9OZjDVCkQw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: -55px 0% 10px;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 15%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPYFLBpglDhrgWCrEoVPym5wppVczDU1gY6LOP97TEZT0xvqibTqYfWaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(239, 70, 70);border-style: none;border-width: 1px;background-color: rgb(182, 182, 182);border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -18px 0% 10px;font-size: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);display: inline-block;width: 2.5em;height: 2.5em;line-height: 2.5em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 240);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="text-align: right;transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 3px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 22px;color: rgb(246, 246, 246);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 5px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family:Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一览导读</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 96%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(55, 120, 153) 0px 0px 6px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(239, 70, 70);border-radius: 8px;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 15px 8px;box-shadow: rgb(239, 175, 17) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 0px 10px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于对武汉新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）疫情爆发的规模估计和潜在疫情发展轨迹的计算模型相结合<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分析，</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">① 截止2020年1月18日，平均每个病例感染2.6人（不确定区间为1.5-3.5人）。②新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）具有人与人之间的传播性，是对武汉这次大规模疫情爆发的唯一合理解释。</span></strong></span>这就意味着需要阻断远超60%的传播者，才能有效控制疫情。根据以往SARS和MERS-CoV疫情中积累的经验，由2019-nCoV引起的继发性病例的数量极可能具有高度可变性，多数病例不会引起继发性感染，而少数病例则会引起大量继发性感染。<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">③疫病传播是否会以同样的速度持续，取决于中国现行控制措施的实施有效性和受影响地区的人口采取减少风险行为的程度。④在尚不具备有效抗病毒药物或疫苗的情况下，控制措施依赖于迅速发现和隔离有症状的病例。</span></strong></span>目前尚不清楚这次疫情能否在中国范围内得到控制<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">，</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">⑤不确定因素包括由该病毒引起的疾病的严重程度，以及症状相对较轻的病例能否同样高效传播该病毒。</span></strong></span>在卫生保障和检测能力允许的范围内，<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">⑥需要尽可能广泛地对潜在病例进行检测，包括识别、检测和隔离仅有轻度至中度症状（如流感样疾病）的疑似病例。</span></strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -70px 0% 0px;font-size: 18px;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 5em;height: 5em;margin: auto;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;text-align: center;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;width: 100%;height: 5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;line-height: 1.2;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);font-size: 15px;padding: 10px;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">阅读</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">正文</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 35%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(160, 160, 160, 0.62);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(79, 79, 79);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(89, 153, 163);text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1px 1.4px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.3px 1.3px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.4px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.3px 0.7px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1px 0.6px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.7px 0.7px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.6px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.7px 1.3px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;">简介：</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">20年来，冠状病毒已引发两次大规模疫病流行，</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2019年12月在中国武汉出现的一类新型冠状病毒被称为2019-nCoV。截止2020年1月24日格林威治时间19:00，中国已经确诊900余病例（其中26例死亡），中国大陆以外至少9个国家或地区已发现病例。最初的系统发育分析表明，与其他已知感染人类的冠状病毒相比，这种新病毒与SARS冠状病毒相似。我们在1月22日发布的报告中提到，根据对从武汉出发的国际旅行频率估计截止1月18日将有4000例病例（不确定区间：1000-9700例）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在此我们报告2019-nCoV存在人与人之间的传播性。我们通过2019-nCoV传播的数学模型生成了一组模拟的疫情轨迹，并检查每个轨迹会在多大程度上与我们先前对疫情规模的估计一致。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">轨迹基线显示，我们假设的2019-nCoV的两个关键特征与SARS观察到的特征相似：每个感染个体产生的新感染数量具有高度的可变性（负二项子代分布，k=0.16）；而且世代时间（感染各代之间的平均时间）与SARS的估计时间（平均值为8.4天）相同。我们还探讨了另外一种假设，即2019-nCoV在传染性上的病例差异更小，且产生时间更短。如果2019-nCoV的大多数病例都有轻度至中度（“流感样”）症状，并且轻度和中度感染病例也都能继续传播感染，那么这种设想更可能实现。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们对新冠病毒的传播能力的估计取决于这种来自原始动物源感染的病毒病例数量，当目前这一点尚不清楚（译者注：发文时间）。因此，我们明确考虑采用因接触该病毒而引起的人畜共患病的一系列病例数量进行分析。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分析病毒的传播能力是通过繁殖数R来衡量的，R指的是衡量每个感染者产生的新感染者的平均数量。当R大于1时，除非采取控制措施以减少R来减缓或停止传播病毒，否则疫情还是可以自我维持蔓延。当R小于1时，虽然还会发生一些人与人之间的传播，但随着时间的推移，新病例的数量会减少，最终疫情会停止。在疫情爆发之初，人们基本上没有意识到新的威胁且每个人都容易受到感染，有理由假设R在一段时间内是恒定的。我们把最初的传播能力称为基本繁殖数R0。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在这里，我们通过选取不同的R0的估计值，并评估了它们与我们对武汉疫情爆发规模的估值的一致性的程度。评测了1月18日前统计到的与4000个病例总数相一致的模拟比例。<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">最乐观情景的预估是在1月18日之前R0模拟轨迹等于或超出4000例的5%；</span></strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">我们中心采用的是普通情景，即预估R0模拟轨迹等于或超出4000例的50%；最坏情境的预估是模拟轨迹等于或超出4000例的95%。</span></strong></span>图1描述了我们的模拟方法。作为一项敏感性分析，我们还生成了假设到1月18日有大约1000例至9700例病例，这是在此日期前预估的4000例病例不确定区间的上下限。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(79, 79, 79);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(89, 153, 163);text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1px 1.4px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.3px 1.3px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.4px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.3px 0.7px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1px 0.6px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.7px 0.7px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.6px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.7px 1.3px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;">结论：</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分析表明，除非采取有效的控制措施，否则2019-nCoV的人与人间的传播力极可能足以支持持续的人际传播（R0>1）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">假设到1月18日共有4000例病例，我们判断最有可能的估值与本文所探讨的最小人畜共患病暴露水平（40例）相对应，即R0=2.6（见表1和图1）。由传染病本质上随机造成的不确定性和人畜共患病暴露水平的不确定性导致不确定范围为1.5-3.5。根据人畜共患病的暴露水平程度，在（不太可能的）情况下，中心估计的R0值处于我们先前估计（即1000例病例）的不确定范围的低端，R0的估计范围从1.7到2.6不等。假设到1月18日有9700例病例（即我们在报告2中的最高估值），在40例人畜共患病的情况下，R0=3.1（不确定区间为1.9-4.2）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">只有在支持R0<1的情况下，截止1月18日，武汉总体病例数较低（1000例），其中有很大数量（200例）是由人畜共患病暴露导致（见表1），即使这样，R0<1也只是我们最乐观的估计。对200个具有非常有限的遗传多样性的新病毒个体进行检测，将成为首次为这种流行病埋下种子的巨大点源人畜共患病事件。已发表的病毒遗传序列中遗传多样性非常有限的证据表明，病毒接种的规模较小（可能小于我们认为的最低人畜共患病情况下的40例病例）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们的基线分析假设每个病例感染引发的二次感染病例数量（即它包含超级传播类型事件）中存在类似于SARS的变异水平及世代时间。我们还研究了这些假设的敏感性。通过缩短世代时间（平均为6.8天，而不是8.4天），我们对R0的中心估计值将降低到2.1（不确定区间为1.3-2.7），但这不会改变关于自我维持人际传播可能性的总体结论。将生成时间调整为10.7天，R0的中心估计数将提高到3.1（不确定区间为1.7-4.3），但这不会改变基本结论。</p></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6834783" data-w="575" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPaCr3bmErp6u1GwjzRnRTye1n1V4vwJCP6wu9rJqWGUkRe4w5LL3Z4A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">表格一、截至2020年1月18日，分别以4000例预估确诊病例数（表格上半部分）和1000例预估确诊病例数（表格下半部分）为样本数进行 2019-nCoV 人传人可能性指数R0在最佳情况、中等情况以及最差情况预估。R0数值大于1的数据表示呈现出自发性的人传人情况，表中被标红。</span></em></strong></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8430405" data-w="1013" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPibzZYsNHtymKeYJPec4LE5ldnLY1ibG7djs2PdEvQsMv2yqAhS8S65yQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图一、R0值为2.6时的一般情境下的预估模型曲线。红色曲线表示随时间推移，假设以5000例确诊传染病例进行累计计算的中间值，这一数字来源于2019年12月间40起由人畜直接接触导致感染的病例，并以SARS病毒的传染性和变异性进行代际时长推测。灰色区域表示预测曲线相邻95%范围内——单一变量下的模拟传染（浅灰色曲线组成的随机集合）是高度不可预测的，这反映出在自然状态下疫情的扩散是随机的。虚线指的是1月18日（竖线）将累计引发4000例（横线）感染个例。</span></em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(79, 79, 79);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(89, 153, 163);text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1px 1.4px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.3px 1.3px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.4px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1.3px 0.7px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 1px 0.6px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.7px 0.7px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.6px 1px, rgb(89, 153, 163) 0.7px 1.3px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;">论述：</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2020年1月23日，中国湖北省数座城市展开了空前的隔离防疫工作昭示着这场疫情进入到一个关乎公众健康的崭新层面。在此，笔者在对不同的人畜交叉感染及二次传播的情境进行推演并预估了截止1月18日武汉境内2019-nCoV的传播速度。笔者总结，病毒自发性人传人的情况已经发生，并且预计传播速度为1：2.6（不确定范围：1.5-3.5），这一数据可以解释笔者先前推测的1月18日整体疫情爆发至4000例，这强烈预示着持续地人传人现象已经发生。假定笔者对确诊病例的预测数值达到9700例，R0预测值也将相应升高。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当下疫情发展是否会以同样速率发展下去，取决于武汉政府和中国当局的决策效率和有效程度。有足够的证据表明，当人们充分认识到防疫的重要性，SARS的传播速度也发生了显著变化。<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">如果在这次疫情中，人际间的接触模式发生相应变化，配合政府和医疗机构提出的控制措施及全民提高的风险规避意识，那么其传播趋势将会比前文提到的要低。</span></strong></span>疫情传播趋势的降低在于是否可以将R值降至1以下——从而控制疫情——仍待观察。<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(110, 65, 157);box-sizing: border-box;">相关报道指出2019-nCoV症状轻微但是具有一定传染性，这不是SARS的病理特征。鉴于能够引发这类非特异性呼吸道症状的其他疾病（如流感）较多，迅速鉴别和隔离2019-nCoV是及其困难的。若要控制疫情，则取决于对病例严重程度的确定，以及尽可能的成功检测并隔离病患。</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文的研究结果强调了在接下来的数周内，特别在武汉及其周边城市，对传染效率的跟踪是非常必要的。如果在新确诊病例数量上发生明显的下降趋势，这代表相关的控制措施和对民众的行为规范可以有效降低2019-nCoV。武汉市在实行强有力的公共卫生政策后取得的基因数据可以极大程度帮助了解疫情的传播模式和传播速度。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管世卫组织紧急情况委员会于近日暂不宣布这是需要引发国际关注的公共卫生紧急情况，但当下的疫情显然严重威胁着全球公共健康。目前尚未能确定疫情是否可以被有效控制在中国境内，在对疫情演变情况持续监测的同时，更需要充分了解其对公共健康的威胁程度。当下，我们对感染该病毒后引发的症状及其严重程度了解有限，对致死率（因该病毒死亡的病例比例）亦无可靠评估。识别疫病严重程度图谱，以及症候严重程度与感染性的关联，将对评估针对疫情的控制措施可行性及该疫情对公共卫生可能造成的影响至关重要。</p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3981481" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CY32rGxwRTiczwWr7SOSZPE4ADsCt5F0rPnq5rZicw715eoYPzcHnr2BiaUicFkGYkoHx85vmdc0eyQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="opacity: 0.2;transform: translate3d(79px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(79px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(79px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(79px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -13px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);letter-spacing: 6px;font-family: PingFangSC-light;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">致谢</p></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 60%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 32px;color: rgba(38, 176, 231, 0.79);letter-spacing: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">致谢</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">对来自WIV核心机构的Pei Zhang和An-na Du致谢，感谢他们提供的技术支持以及制作的TEM显微照片。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">本研究得到中国科学院战略重点研究计划（(XDB29010101 to ZLS 及 XDB29010104 to PZ)以及中国自然科学基金重点项目（PZ 81822028，ZLS 31770175，BH 31800142），中华人民共和国科学技术部传染病重大项目（DYZ 2020ZX09201001和DYZ 2018ZX10305409-004-001），中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（XLY 2019328）的共同支持。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgba(38, 176, 231, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">一览众山小为您提供本文英文原文。</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 35%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: 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style="box-sizing: border-box;">一览众山小</strong></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 33.33%;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 33.33%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: 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18px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 6px;line-height: 1.6em;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-radius: 6px 0px 0px 6px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(128, 178, 188);width: 1.6em;height: 1.6em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">01</p></section><section style="padding: 0px 4px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.6;font-size: 14px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《武汉新型冠状病毒2019-nCoV的传播能力分析》</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br 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style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 80%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们作为独立的专业志愿者团体，秉承专业理想与价值观，不依托任何机构，信守非盈利原则，帮助中国城市可持续发展。我们关注的领域包括但不限于：城市规划与发展战略、城市交通、公共交通与非机动化出行、活力街区、街道与城市设计、量化城市与大数据。至今我们已经拥有遍布全球近430名志愿者网络，并推送2000篇专业微文。作为微信公众号平台最大的线上专业志愿者团体，我们感谢您对我们的关注和支持，并欢迎加入我们！</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 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