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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7518519" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwrKagNu9GF7UMCyzwUxmiaMdZcVGXwZibjsMSzB7lfAywfckP8Kr73wlQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20%;vertical-align: top;border-top: 2px none rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(239, 70, 70);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="tn-yzk-fuid-text-53202-1534475045474" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(239, 175, 17);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文需阅读 - 33分钟</p></section></section><section style="margin: 20px 0%;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 60%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgba(95, 156, 239, 0.69);background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(239, 70, 70);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一览众山小</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(239, 70, 70);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sustainable</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(239, 70, 70);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Cities &</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(239, 70, 70);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mobility</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px solid rgb(179, 179, 179);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(179, 179, 179);padding: 0px 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(232, 76, 32);box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划与发展战略</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(170, 168, 168);box-sizing: border-box;">城市综合交通</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">公共交通与非机动化出行</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">活力街区、街道与城市设计</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">量化城市与大数据</span></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(239, 175, 17);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">「</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">」</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;padding: 0px 5px;color: rgb(239, 175, 17);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2019年<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> | 9</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">月29日期</span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 40%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;font-size: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0234604" data-w="682" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icw1AbsqPIMt8QmPYOjMXGviay8J6fFrfbKJyjEbMJ8ZnD7eEhlzNFXNRA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(181, 190, 143);border-style: none;border-width: 1px;background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: -20px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 17%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnSB0vvDNxRsKNdWg7QzGEGVHFgEcfv0hN02MBy25VyEWYF6pjLgYow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 202, 0);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 5px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">团队成员<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -20px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 5%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnSB0vvDNxRsKNdWg7QzGEGVHFgEcfv0hN02MBy25VyEWYF6pjLgYow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -20px 0% 20px;transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 10%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnSB0vvDNxRsKNdWg7QzGEGVHFgEcfv0hN02MBy25VyEWYF6pjLgYow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 45%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 48px;margin: 10px 0%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: -5px;width: 3em;height: 3em;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);padding: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwh53g4qHzTGdCWhlEVPtHWs8L6CgBnCgp5NwHUhsfbPxqMYHibYDKibSw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwh53g4qHzTGdCWhlEVPtHWs8L6CgBnCgp5NwHUhsfbPxqMYHibYDKibSw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: -1.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);transform: rotate(0deg);margin-bottom: -2px;margin-left: -3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;float: right;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-top: -3px;margin-right: -3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);margin-left: -3px;border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 3em;height: 1.5em;margin-top: -5px;border-radius: 0px 0px 1.5em 1.5em;border-left: 1px dashed rgb(232, 76, 32);border-right: 1px dashed rgb(232, 76, 32);border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(232, 76, 32);border-top-color: rgb(232, 76, 32);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 45%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 48px;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -1.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 3em;height: 1.5em;margin-bottom: -5px;border-radius: 1.5em 1.5em 0px 0px;border-left: 1px dashed rgb(232, 76, 32);border-right: 1px dashed rgb(232, 76, 32);border-top: 1px dashed rgb(232, 76, 32);border-bottom-color: rgb(232, 76, 32);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;float: right;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-right: -3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);margin-left: -3px;border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);transform: rotate(0deg);margin-bottom: -2px;margin-left: -3px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: -5px;width: 3em;height: 3em;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);padding: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;box-shadow: rgb(255, 202, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icw3YaXQl5X1Uiadhxic2fgfBZK2UmSSouh5o6WjobPRw1jlhEYwGaZgCkQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icw3YaXQl5X1Uiadhxic2fgfBZK2UmSSouh5o6WjobPRw1jlhEYwGaZgCkQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;"></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 12%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnSB0vvDNxRsKNdWg7QzGEGVHFgEcfv0hN02MBy25VyEWYF6pjLgYow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;padding: 0px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 原文 |</strong> Christopher Marcinkoski  <br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">翻译 |</strong> 张芮（铅笔鸭）</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">  编辑 | </strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">众山小</span><strong style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">      校核 |</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">众山小         </span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;">   文献 </strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;">|</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>祁佳 <span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">    </span><strong style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">排版 |</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 蒋睿婕         </span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(128, 178, 188);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;">微博 |</span></strong><span style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"> weibo.com/     </span></span></p></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin: 10px 0% 20px;transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 7%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnSB0vvDNxRsKNdWg7QzGEGVHFgEcfv0hN02MBy25VyEWYF6pjLgYow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 12%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnSB0vvDNxRsKNdWg7QzGEGVHFgEcfv0hN02MBy25VyEWYF6pjLgYow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: -55px 0% 10px;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 27%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwibBXtnT1IrM7bRibK4BnoP9kPtMHX09EIbsxFA7DcVc87sYAqHMlE9pQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-width: 0px 30px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none solid;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62) rgba(246, 53, 41, 0.85);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0% -10px;transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7870968" data-w="155" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/ypHkr9lwlYP0ekUo8rvia6U6bhcnMeBbHBL2Nw9asJNppEE9sicT1xuLEw7UJ1K0yY6JW8jx1FLcpibmropbuNic0g/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="gif"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 5px;border-width: 3px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">导读</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin: 10px 0% -40px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 60px;height: 40px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-left: 10px none rgba(255, 202, 0, 0.75);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-right: 10px solid rgba(255, 202, 0, 0.75);border-top-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(121, 121, 121);padding: 0px 20px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为了应对迫切的城市化和基础设施升级需求，非洲大陆正在如火如荼进行着一场“投机性城市化”运动。作者冷静地反思了投机性城市化背后的动因和潜在的风险，<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">并进一步归纳出中产阶级新城、旅游/豪华飞地、技术或工业新城和新的国家首都四种典型模式</strong></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">。</strong>通过对四种非洲典型的投机性城市化模式的深入探讨，作者发现在其建设过程中共通的问题：不合理的过度扩张和规划设计的创新乏力。进而作者直指核心，即城市设计相关学科在城市化进程中的失责和学科教育与现实的严重脱节。从而呼吁规划设计学科的转型，城市规划设计应真正参与到城市化活动的经营管理中，设计可自适应不断变化环境的城市化系统，实现非洲的可持续城市化。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -40px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 60px;height: 40px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-left: 10px solid rgba(255, 202, 0, 0.75);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/v1QQ9Ay90T3QcwySuiaOthTYl3Q7851kEn8pcXibicuK2twxMEN4zNAX8LrIOVNoxoz5s4sicANRqnKnDOibQ8CIiaKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.0375" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwf6ianWNsVUhQRnia7Eic2z5aw3ibXe0eZfbcSDtTdBhyfaaFYd3zqhmgjA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.43333333333333335" data-w="1080"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图一、截至2014年1月， 基兰巴（Kilamba）的建成范围大约是规划总面积的十分之一。基兰巴是目前计划在罗安达（非洲西南部国家安哥拉的首都）外围建设的五个新城之一。（地图?Christopher Marcinkoski，图片由CITIC提供）</strong></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/rm3sbxzG7w4yVxibOBw7ywrEdaibwkJthpud3DMoic1pj5BhTQTdsW5AdQv8a4pBZ5fvov0D0vhiaTEH0ugjY5m4Uw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.0390625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;"></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 48px;letter-spacing: 3px;line-height: 1;padding: 0px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px -1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(248, 202, 44) 0px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 4.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.6px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px -1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(248, 202, 44) 0px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 4.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.6px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color:#ffca00;box-sizing: border-box;">.</span></span><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px -1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(248, 202, 44) 0px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 4.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.6px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 3px 0px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;">////// ..</span></strong></span></em></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/7vECuO76uwVodbQq1KzJHpJiaI9WDepz9gmOeOolFpMCNeIKMAqPmFAq1XficaPicCOrDUAgTr2YJvjlwicQFwTaZQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif" class="" data-ratio="0.696" data-w="500"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;"></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-top: 1.2em solid rgb(255, 223, 0);border-left: 0.7em solid transparent !important;border-right: 0.7em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="align-items: center;display: flex;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 8px;height: 8px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-color: rgb(255, 222, 23);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 1 auto;border-left: 1px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-top-right-radius: 0px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1.8px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;padding: 0px 15px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">现在，根据联合国最近的数据，非洲大陆生活着将近12亿人。到2050年，这个数字预计将翻一番，达到大约24亿人。到2100年，预计将有44亿人生活在非洲，约占那时地球总人口的40%<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1）</span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非洲目前拥有各种各样的城市模式，相较于其发展的成熟程度，目前这些城市的引导政策、经济支持和城市总体条件都是不合格的，如这些城市所依赖的基础设施和建筑存量。<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">在这样的状况下，关于非洲城市住区和基础设施的大幅升级需求应该没有什么问题。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">并非巧合的是，自从2004年全球房地产泡沫高峰以来的十年左右，各种人口预测，再加上整个非洲大陆的城市服务和住区的极度匮乏，导致出现越来越多的关于非洲大规模城市发展的建议。在承认上述升级迫切的需求的基础上，关于这些建议，笔者更感兴趣的是其规模、范围、形式和计划，相对于这些建议被提出背景下的实际人口统计和市场需求，根本不一致。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">例如，许多建议都依赖于城市化驱动的经济增长模型，而这些增长模型毫无取舍的借鉴了最近在中国和中东等地采用的外生追求模式。这些（非理性的增长模型引发的）拨款似乎忽略了一系列根本不同的物质和人口资源，这些物质和人口资源的特征有赖于其所在的环境，以及它们根本不同的政府治理和土地土地保有制度。反过来，除了与非洲近期的现实环境的错位之外，这些关于新定居点和基础设施的建议意味着，将严重有限的资本资源从更基本的城市服务中转移出来，将进一步加剧城市条件不足的威胁<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献2）</span>。通过这种方式，这些“非洲新城”代表了那些积极参与规划、设计和建设的学科越来越关注的话题。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">使这一过程变得复杂——或者说，实际上是什么激发了它——是过去30年来出现的一种现象，我称之为<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“投机性城市化”</strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献3）</span>。在这种“投机性城市化”中，新基础设施和住区的建设是为了满足政治和经济的目的，而不是满足真实（而非人为预测）的人口或市场需求。如果将这一现象的定义略微扩大，它还可以包括为了特定目的，例如为了增加土地财政价值，而进行的立法重新指定和重新划分这些土地的活动。这种现象主要指在已建成城市区域周边发生的活动，或在郊区环境中发生的活动，其中实体的城市化在一个区域和地方的尺度上自主运作，而不是在单个地块或建筑物的尺度上。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">虽然住区和基础设施的投机性扩张可以追溯到古罗马，但过去15年出现了这种现象最戏剧性和有影响力的例子，以及其发生率在明显加剧<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献4）</span>。鉴于近期投机性追求失败导致的严重的经济和社会混乱——例如西班牙、爱尔兰、中国和迪拜在21世纪的第一个十年期间——值得花些时间来思考设计和规划在这些活动中承担的角色。</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 8px;height: 8px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-color: rgb(255, 222, 23);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwlVzXvYcfVBws6ibAh1o34ibuvj498amGZn1WtsU0RJIicf2K1cXbbpucw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.6666666666666666" data-w="645"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图二、类似的投机性城市化行动引发的灾难性失败已经在西班牙等地发生，但似乎对他们的持续追求（投机性城市化）几乎没有长期影响。（?Christopher Marcinkoski）</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/rm3sbxzG7w4yVxibOBw7ywrEdaibwkJthpud3DMoic1pj5BhTQTdsW5AdQv8a4pBZ5fvov0D0vhiaTEH0ugjY5m4Uw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.0390625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/v1QQ9Ay90T3QcwySuiaOthTYl3Q7851kEn8pcXibicuK2twxMEN4zNAX8LrIOVNoxoz5s4sicANRqnKnDOibQ8CIiaKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.0375" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;"></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 48px;letter-spacing: 3px;line-height: 1;padding: 0px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px -1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(248, 202, 44) 0px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 4.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.6px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px -1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(248, 202, 44) 0px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 4.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.6px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color:#ffca00;box-sizing: border-box;">.</span></span><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px -1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 0px 0px, rgb(248, 202, 44) 0px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 2px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 4.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.6px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1.4px 3px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1.4px 3px 0px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;">////// ..</span></strong></span></em></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/7vECuO76uwVodbQq1KzJHpJiaI9WDepz9gmOeOolFpMCNeIKMAqPmFAq1XficaPicCOrDUAgTr2YJvjlwicQFwTaZQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif" class="" data-ratio="0.696" data-w="500"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;height: 1px;"></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-top: 1.2em solid rgb(255, 223, 0);border-left: 0.7em solid transparent !important;border-right: 0.7em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">从历史上看，实体城市化往往伴随着经济增长。在建筑活动超过相应经济状况的情况下，会产生盈余并需要一些市场修正：通过价格、数量等。然而，城市化活动与经济增长之间的这种相关性越来越频繁地被颠倒。在这里（即在非洲），正如上面提到的许多例子一样，实体城市化活动正在进行，以期在不论真实人口或市场需求的情况下实现经济增长。这通常意味着追求那些尺度过大、经济上无法实现或简单来说并不适于当前状况的项目。同样，这些项目的特点是失败率很高——无论是低占用率、仅有部分完成还是被完全放弃。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些失败扩张的后果将远远超出建成环境，成为重大的社会、财政和环境问题。鉴于这些后果的严重性，随着非洲大陆的快速城市化发展，有关新提案的这些问题也日渐重要，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">即如何对住区和基础设施进行必要的升级？这些升级应该依赖什么形式的空间和城市战略？以及，最关键的问题，这些新住区和基础设施是为谁而建的？</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在发展中经济体的快速城市化中，这些并不是新问题。事实上，同样的状况在20世纪80年代和90年代的东南亚，以及20世纪90年代末和21世纪初的中东地区都出现过，城市化活动被赋予明确的经济和政治意图从而展现现代化和区域竞争力的形象，往往脱离了现实人口和社会的需求。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">虽然大规模城市新区的提案日渐成为常态，不再令人震惊，但仍然存在一个基本问题：这些追求中使用的特定城市增长模型是否会像过去那样产生长期的城市化利益？或者，这些举措最终是否会屈服于意外的近期问题（社会、环境、经济和政治），从而阻碍了长期成功的实现<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献5）</span>？虽然无法预测这个问题的答案，但反思房地产投机在2008年全球金融危机中扮演的角色，以及对其他先前投机性城市化事件的反思都表明，如果没有某种根本性的变化，这些非洲大陆当前的追求很有可能造成同样严重的后果，不管是在本地还是全球。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">宾夕法尼亚大学正在进行的研究发现，在过去十年中，非洲20个最大的国家经济体内进行了至少60起的地域性的投机性城市化案例。也就是说，在许多非洲大陆上较小的经济体内也可以找到这样的例子。每个案例的面积至少为80公顷（约200英亩）；定位于邻近现有城市或郊区绿地上的住区的周边扩张；旨在作为一个自治的城市区域，表面上独立于现有的城市中心。最终，这些投机性城市化活动与更可信或更传统的城市化追求的区别在于它们的规模、地理位置以及相对于可用人口（市场）的可达性程度。虽然本文不适合深入讨论这些各种各样的发展，但我们可以根据特定模式对其进行分类，这对于探索这些追求背后的动机非常有意义。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">例如，今天在非洲大陆上可以看到的最常见的投机性城市化形式也许就是我所说的：<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中产阶级新城。</strong></span>这些都是为了适应国家所谓的“正在增长的中产阶级”的明确意图而开展的，这些中产阶级预计会因农村向城市迁移而出现，并伴随着与现代化相关的经济扩张。这类例子包括：摩洛哥正在进行的新城镇计划，该计划于2004年底启动；位于肯尼亚内罗毕东北部的Tatu City（1,200公顷）；尼日利亚的Centenary City（1,260公顷）和Lekki New Township（1,560公顷）项目；La Cite du Fleuve（375公顷）位于金沙萨（刚果首都）东部外围，D.R.C；阿波罗-光之城（941公顷），位于加纳阿克拉以北；此外，还有该类型项目的媒体宠儿，中国建造的新城镇基兰巴（5400公顷），位于安哥拉罗安达东南部。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这种特殊形式的问题在于，从财务的角度来看，大多数正在建设的住房是普通人口无法获得的，除非获得政府可观的补贴，然而这些国家根本无力承担。其结果是，这种特殊形式的开发通常在建成后的数年甚至数十年里都空空如也（鬼城），物质空间条件也不断恶化。</p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwnO3tFFhPCgVgFBDFhRFQ0vCZejP6akTRjduSGf0TyTQvianpA4oJUrw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="1.4635658914728682" data-w="645"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三、自2004/2005年全球房地产泡沫高峰以来，整个非洲大陆出现了越来越多的投机性新城提案。从右上图顺时针方向：Kigamboni New City-Dar el Salaam，坦桑尼亚（资料来源：Kigamboni 发展署）; Eko Energy Estate-Lagos，尼日利亚（来源：MZ建筑公司）; Appolonia City of Light—Accra,加纳（来源：Reandevour）; LaCitéduFleuve-Kinshasa，D.R.C。（来源：HawkWood Properties）; Hope City-Accra，加纳（资料来源：RLG通信公司）; Eko Atlantic- Lagos，尼日利亚（资料来源：Eko Atlantic）; Konza Techno City-Konza，肯尼亚（资料来源：Konza Technopolis发展局）。</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/rm3sbxzG7w4yVxibOBw7ywrEdaibwkJthpud3DMoic1pj5BhTQTdsW5AdQv8a4pBZ5fvov0D0vhiaTEH0ugjY5m4Uw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.0390625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">另一种常见的投机性城市化形式是越来越普遍的旅游/豪华飞地。继西班牙和阿联酋等地建立的城市增长模式之后，这些城市化项目的前提是向外国投资和人口开放奇景，并在现有大都市范围内建立安全的特设区域。这些例子包括：位于内罗毕（东非国家肯尼亚的首都）西北70公里处的占地2,400公顷的Longonote Gate；作为新开罗计划的一部分进行的各种开发项目，包括Barwa（830公顷），Madinaty（4,500公顷）和Mivida（1,490公顷）；沿着丹吉尔（摩洛哥北部古城，旅游城市）以南的摩洛哥大西洋海岸度假项目，如Tinja（330公顷）和Al Houara（234公顷）; 以及10平方公里的Eko Atlantic开发项目，正在从尼日利亚拉各斯（尼日利亚旧都）以南的海域开垦。这些发展项目，如之前提到的中产阶级新城，对绝大多数非洲人口来说都是十分遥远的。但是，不同于先前的一组例子声称是为大陆日益增长的城市人口服务的，这些发展项目从不掩饰其服务的目标客户——全球精英及其相关的投资资金。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非洲大陆最常见的第三种投机性城市化形式也主要是为了吸引外国投资。然而，这些技术或工业新城主要是为了吸引外国公司和机构的资本及合作伙伴而建的，而非吸引来自个人的投资。这些例子包括：位于肯尼亚内罗毕东南70公里处的拟建2,000公顷的Konza Techno City，旨在抓住已经遍布整个非洲的大规模电信市场（SMS）背后的机遇。穆罕默德四世绿色城市，大致位于马拉喀什和卡萨布兰卡之间，建立在摩洛哥办公室ChérifiendesPhosphate（OCP）的资源之上——该国家机构负责管理该国庞大的磷酸盐储备——以建立一个以“世界一流”大学为中心的国际研究和产业中心。北面几百公里处是拟定的Zenata生态城（1,830公顷），旨在将卡萨布兰卡（已经是摩洛哥的金融中心）提升到“世界大都市的地位”<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献6）</span>。其他区域，在南非约翰内斯堡以北40公里左右的地方，落着一座私人拥有的兰塞里亚机场（Lanseria Airport），这座机场预计将在未来的25年内被改造成一座空港新城，一个从中心的航空设施向周边20公里区域辐射的“空港都市区”。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在各种不同追求的背景下，值得考虑的是，为什么每一项提议所隐含的潜在经济引擎常常被视为与现有的城市中心和结构不相容。当然，与建成区以外的潜在就业中心相关的城市化活动已被证明是一项有效的战略。问题是，为什么这些追求似乎都如此严重地依赖于外生的城市增长模式，而非利用特定区域或环境的特定资产来建立新的模式。</p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8CxoElIicvUxLmXiamtfy1icwdFI02aIEzAiccpX6y6pJHQL5z4O4mfBGTrgyUJSKEjH0EYic7bmAhzjQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="1.3255813953488371" data-w="645"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图四、摩洛哥的Ville Nouvelle计划于2004年底首次发布，计划到2020年开发15个新城镇以容纳超过15万名居民。目前，这些新城镇中有6个已经部分建成并投入使用，另外还有5个开发地点已被选中。图为：Tamesna上方，Tamensourt下方。（?Christopher Marcinkoski）</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/rm3sbxzG7w4yVxibOBw7ywrEdaibwkJthpud3DMoic1pj5BhTQTdsW5AdQv8a4pBZ5fvov0D0vhiaTEH0ugjY5m4Uw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.0390625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/DczqT26ALmqicOOd0ywosPMAQzwSCOHPu2NI9VVhgFKCziakxia6SBBAkCbt2zMibvnUKD3zSeHP8ctTcUDRqUgc4A/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif" class="" data-ratio="0.03577235772357724" data-w="615"  /></section></section><section style="line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">最后一种非洲大陆上的投机性城市化模式也许是最有说服力的。一些新的国家首都的出现，清楚地表明了全球政治和经济地位与新颖或标志性的城市形态的产生之间的关联。这种关联显然并不新鲜，罗马、巴黎和莫斯科等地的例子都很容易证明这一点。然而，正如前面所提到的那样，独特之处在于这种关系的反转，以至于“全球城市”组成部分的实际建设现在被理解为达到目的的一种手段，而不是经济和政治地位不断提高的一种产物。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些新首都的例子包括位于阿尔及尔以南120公里处的Boughezoul打造的6,000公顷的“低碳城市”，其计划作为阿尔及利亚的新首都，主要由该国依赖碳的石油财富提供资金。在赤道几内亚，正在建设一个名为Oyala（或Djibloho）的8,150公顷的行政首都，距离现在的首都马拉博大约350公里。虽然不是一个真正的新城镇，但基加利（卢旺达首都）的2020年总体规划设想将历史上这一种族冲突最严重的地区改造为一个集合高科技、金融、零售区和生态保护区的分散的大都市圈，一个具有新加坡特色的区域，是这一项目幕后的规划师们心中的家园<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献7）</span>。而且，就在2015年3月，埃及还提议在开罗郊区修建一个大规模的新首都区，以“激发国家经济的复兴”<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献8）</span>。这个新城市预计有500万居民，将在5到7年内建成。这只是一个最新的例子，表明人们越来越普遍地认为，城市化是21世纪经济生产和全球地位的最终工具，尤其是对发展中经济体而言。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在反思这些不同的案例时，引人注目的是，与欧洲战后时期不同的是，当时迫切的住房需求和现代化需要推动了建筑和城市形式的创新。而非洲大陆同样紧迫的人口需求正在引发一场城市化响应，而这似乎只不过是对构成当代“具有竞争力的全球城市”的熟悉配方的重复利用<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献9）</span>。<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">在这里，对城市设计“创新”的追求十分有限，已经沦落为偶尔对夸张建筑形式的追求，或者是在过度扩张、定义不清的泡沫中摧毁大片新区。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这样的工作（摧毁大片新区）体现了城市设计学科无可辩解的缺位和失责。在这方面，非洲大陆城市化所面临的紧迫挑战与其说是与正在仿效的模式有关，不如说是与所采用的城市模式的特殊性和适宜性更加相关；城市化的进程；以及规划和设计从城市化模式中抽象概念的能力，以积极响应长期项目部署中不断变化的人口、经济、政策和环境需求。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当代大众媒体对这些投机的城市化活动的参与充其量只能说是不平衡的。欧洲和美国的新闻媒体尤其利用了围绕中国日益增长的全球影响力的偏执情绪，他们把重点放在了非洲大陆的城镇化项目上，这些项目是由中国国有或与国家有关的机构，如中信集团（CITIC）和中国国际新闻集团（CGCOC）推动或建设的<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献10）</span>。虽然它们（与中国机构有关的非洲城市化建设）在数量和规模上都十分显著，但这些来自中国的机构绝对不是非洲大陆上投机性城市化活动的唯一参与者。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">例如，一群熟悉的国际资金来源和与政府有关联的企业，以及来自欧洲和东南亚的知名工程和规划跨国公司，一次又一次地出现在这些项目中。像欧盟、国际货币基金组织和世界银行等机构，通过支持规划研究或基础设施融资，为许多此类项目提供担保<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献11）</span>。而在其他地方，在资源开采或农业方面有兴趣的公司合伙企业和投资基金正在利用城市化活动作为其获得政治支持的工具，进而获得这些资产<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献12）</span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管许多提案来自特定国家领导层的野心，但仍有一些提案正被外国政党推动，以利用其眼中的潜在市场和财政绝望的政府。来自中国、新加坡和中东等地的与国家有关的规划和发展公司，利用本国特定城市增长模式的“成功”案例，试图说服非洲大陆的城市和州的领导人以保留他们本国的服务并允许他们代表其国家进行发展<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献13）</span>。这样，即使在最不同的背景情况下，就中心行动者和提议结果方面的提议之间的相似性，就不足为奇了<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">简而言之，似乎有一个城市化驱动经济增长的放之四海皆准的普适“秘诀”，正被不分青红皂白地兜售到整个非洲大陆，以作为应对最棘手的经济乃至社会挑战的根本解决方案。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">正如我在别处所论述的，这种对投机性建筑的追求是资本主义经济体系的必然结果<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献14）</span>。然而，承认这一必然性并不应被解释为默许——恰恰相反。虽然这些投机活动产生于各种政治和经济动机，我们仍不能原谅设计和规划学科（不作为或错误作为导致的）与这些追求的后果同谋。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">例如，我们必须承认，<span style="color: rgb(232, 21, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">只关注单一、优先结果的实现而设计和规划的大规模新城建设是完全荒谬的，无论其是不是投机行为。这种方式在多方面都不合逻辑。只关注单一结果，约等于在经济活动、人口和市场需求等方面，假设了一个（绝对不可能达到的）稳定状态。它表明规划师和设计师有一种天真或故意的疏忽，没有考虑到日益增加的破坏城市化进程的可能性，而这正是投机性建筑活动的特征。（而导致这种“疏忽”的原因是）其依赖于分阶段和预定实施阶段的不可信的想法。从本质上来说，这种对单一结果的关注表明了一种傲慢的信念，即认为人可以精准的预测一个经济系统在未来几年乃至数十年将如何运转。这种批评并不是在为某种形式的不确定性辩护——（而是因为）我们知道这种方法只会将我们引入死胡同</strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献15）</span>。相反，我的建议是，我们需要对城市设计理论和实践进行重新调整，以实现土地利用、基础设施和住区的可调节格式，以使其能进行实时主动的调整。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在这种背景下，荷兰的城市规划师Michele Provoost认为，在西方设计教育与当代城市设计实践的现实之间存在根本上的脱节<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献16）</span>。她指出：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“当大型建筑公司正在设计整个城市并从无到有地创造建筑地标时，“他们”的学校却将无法规划城市化的问题理论化（传授给学生），并取而代之建筑针灸（以极小尺度改造的城市更新模式）和自下而上城市政治（自组织）的策略。”</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">从本质上讲，自上世纪中期现代主义规划“失败”以来，从头开始设计城市的能力已经从城市设计教育的核心能力中被剔除。反过来，设计和规划充分（或适当）构思并创造新城市形式的能力也被削弱。因此，如今最常被兜售的“城市设计”仅仅是“被验证的”城市形式的放大复制品，或者是难以置信的建筑地标在新住区的异常渲染（可以理解为非常不适合的城市设计）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">显然，当设计和规划新住区时，依赖已有的熟悉格式并在旧有成果上完善肯定是高效的。实际上，人们可能会争辩，以其它方式运作可能会引发学科失信的风险。诚然，告诉客户“我也无法确切地知道未来十年可能发生什么”或“确实存在事情无法按照我们的意愿进行的可能性”，是十分困难的（这可能无异于专业自杀）。另一方面，（学科具有）设计可以调节和适应不断变化环境的城市化系统的能力；使其（可调节并具有适应性的城市化系统）可以在正在进行的城市化进程中被重新校准或调节；这样的城市化系统即使在“失败”中也能产出净积极成果，因为它为城市设计学科提供了在不可避免的投机性城市化进程中扩展的机会。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">在这种路径下，城市设计可以参与到正在进行的城市化活动的经营管理中（作为一个参与的主体），而不是继续作为城市化进程的代理，仅仅简单地作用于盲目的实体城市产品的生产。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">考虑到当前遍及非洲大陆的基于人口和经济增长所激发的城市化和基础设施升级的迫切需求，为了避免再次陷入先前类似的投机性活动所引发的严重的环境、经济和社会后果，学科的转型迫在眉睫。</p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/DczqT26ALmqicOOd0ywosPMAQzwSCOHPu2NI9VVhgFKCziakxia6SBBAkCbt2zMibvnUKD3zSeHP8ctTcUDRqUgc4A/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif" class="" data-ratio="0.03577235772357724" data-w="615"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 20px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 8px 8px;background-color: rgb(245, 213, 66);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 3px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0.8px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文参考文献</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[1] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015),<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"> <span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.241.</strong></span></span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [2] Vanessa Watson. “African Urban Fantasies: Dreams or Nightmares?,” <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Environment and Urbanization 26</em>, no. 215 (2014): 229.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [3] Christopher Marcinkoski, <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The City That Never Was </em>(New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 2015).<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [4] For a more complete discussion of these and other historical examples of speculative urbanization, see “A Brief History of Speculative Urbanization” in Marcinkoski, <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The City That Never Was</em>, 16–48.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [5] “<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">Booms and Busts: The Beauty of Bubbles</span></strong></span>,” Economist, December 18, 2008.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [6]<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">Zenata Eco City project website</span></strong></span>, (accessed October 25, 2015).<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [7] While the Denver-based firm Oz Architects did much of the initial planning for Kigali 2020, the current scheme is clearly driven by Surbana given its characteristic disconnect with reality as seen in other projects such as their work in<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"> Mumbai</span></strong></span>.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [8] “<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">Egypt unveils plans to build new capital east of Cairo</span></strong></span>,” <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">BBC</em> (March 13, 2015).<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [9] For a discussion of these post-war pursuits see Eric Mumford, <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The CIAM Discourse on Urbanism, 1928-1960 </em>(Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2000).<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [10] <span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">“</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">China in Africa: One Among Many</strong></span>,” Economist, January 17, 2015.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [11] See for example,<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"> The EU-Africa Infrastructure Trust Fund</span></em></span>. For a discussion of the motivations behind these investments see, The World Bank, “<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">Harnessing Urbanization to End Poverty and Boost Prosperity in Africa</span></strong>,” October 23, 2013.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [12] See Jessica Chu, “<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">Investigation Into German Involvement In Land Grabbing In Zambia</span></strong></span>,”<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Zambia Land Alliance and Caritas Zambia</em> (March 23, 2012), and <em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">Hawkwood Capital </span></em>statement on corporate social responsibility.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [13] Examples include the aforementioned <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Surbana</em> and <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">CITIC</em>, as well as U.A.E.’s<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Emaar</em>.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [14] See “Urbanization Beyond Speculation” in Marcinkoski, <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The City That Never Was,</em>220–235.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [15] For example, a common critique of the utility of the contemporary Landscape Urbanism discourse is its perceived embrace of open-endedness and indeterminacy at the expense of well-defined physical or policy interventions. 例如，对当代景观都市主义实用性的一种常见批评是，它以开放式和不确定性为视角，以牺牲明确的物质或政策干预为代价（结合原文，这里强调的是确定性和不确定性的争论）。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> [16] Michelle Provoost, “Why Build a New Town?” in <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Volume no. 34—City in a Box.</em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">The French version of the article was published in<span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"> issue 4/2016 of Swiss magazine TRACéS</span></em></span>.</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/rm3sbxzG7w4yVxibOBw7ywrEdaibwkJthpud3DMoic1pj5BhTQTdsW5AdQv8a4pBZ5fvov0D0vhiaTEH0ugjY5m4Uw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg" class="" data-ratio="0.0390625" data-w="640"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: 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