国匠城工作台

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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.4492558" data-w="739" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6rrZ5jLzySiaBlfpKmia9UJ9Po19FaQibYlgia61TYGSIIB78K0mtuKKUlw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20%;vertical-align: top;border-top: 2px none rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(125, 146, 160);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="tn-yzk-fuid-text-53202-1534475045474" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文需阅读 - 42分钟</p></section></section><section style="margin: 20px 0%;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 60%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgba(95, 156, 239, 0.69);background-color: rgb(158, 192, 199);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一览众山小</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgb(158, 192, 199);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sustainable</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgb(158, 192, 199);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Cities &</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(97, 208, 167);background-color: rgb(158, 192, 199);padding: 10px 20px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -20px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 27px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 0.9;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mobility</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 15px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px solid rgb(179, 179, 179);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(179, 179, 179);padding: 0px 5px;letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划与发展战略</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(239, 175, 17);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市综合交通</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">公共交通与非机动化出行</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">活力街区、街道与城市设计</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(182, 182, 182);box-sizing: border-box;">量化城市与大数据</span></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">「</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">」</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 12px;padding: 0px 5px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2019年<span style="color: rgb(125, 146, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"> | 9</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">月19日期</span></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 40%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;font-size: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0234604" data-w="682" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6kHvwVsOpzQ1lobic8Hia84UTPia2tkkxsfFCvib7n2ic1rUZrlNeMGQoG5g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(181, 190, 143);border-style: none;border-width: 1px;background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);border-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: -20px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-60px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 17%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6ksDfMgUViaIBSdx5Ue3BK4AzpUVfrvq9D07LYT2RTxcI16ACaRhOCKw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(81, 111, 180);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 5px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">团队成员<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -20px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 5%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6ksDfMgUViaIBSdx5Ue3BK4AzpUVfrvq9D07LYT2RTxcI16ACaRhOCKw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -20px 0% 20px;transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(45px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 10%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="120" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6ksDfMgUViaIBSdx5Ue3BK4AzpUVfrvq9D07LYT2RTxcI16ACaRhOCKw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 4%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(152, 152, 152);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 0px;margin: auto;border-top: 9px solid rgb(152, 152, 152);border-left: 9px solid transparent !important;border-right: 9px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 0px;margin: -10px auto 0px;border-top: 9px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 9px solid transparent !important;border-right: 9px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC648NSQFHibMQXlBU73Ucddn0KjjSMB5JFetGlm3COD2g5CtT5XjKYgvA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC648NSQFHibMQXlBU73Ucddn0KjjSMB5JFetGlm3COD2g5CtT5XjKYgvA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC672k4kfNrcjNNdexVs0nP0YCU3CS0cCNicyZS0NQVnKKIfB0ko76yuvQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="265" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC672k4kfNrcjNNdexVs0nP0YCU3CS0cCNicyZS0NQVnKKIfB0ko76yuvQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6166iakrfycMxnLM53o8rmZYVlich8ZHvPfFy18SCBd99bbibh68lJjpSQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="256" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6166iakrfycMxnLM53o8rmZYVlich8ZHvPfFy18SCBd99bbibh68lJjpSQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6JyEgfOXAK8ibvWoC3DKdgAJ8uqF3LbOZfmgLPL0dicWbVBxicnNib31HGQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6JyEgfOXAK8ibvWoC3DKdgAJ8uqF3LbOZfmgLPL0dicWbVBxicnNib31HGQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6N76xfmNIfyeCpCa0SJSiaXIyOMedX2bAY33gSibernpicYmQtp49icicBWg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6N76xfmNIfyeCpCa0SJSiaXIyOMedX2bAY33gSibernpicYmQtp49icicBWg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6UlqPtRZNYgjsiarJG1c0pUDicQpfB42KWU6AQaBA5G7wL6LGicwnqicCGg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");overflow: hidden;"><section style="height: 100%;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"> <img data-ratio="0.9778598" data-w="271" 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center;font-size: 22px;color: rgb(246, 246, 246);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 5px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box;">一览</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box;">导读</span></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 96%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(128, 178, 188) 0px 0px 6px;border-width: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-radius: 8px;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 15px 8px;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="tn-yzk-fuid-text-61658-1548305745155" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.8;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">波士顿作为美国最适合步行和骑行城市，正在为“碳中和”交通运输体系的构建付出卓越努力。本篇是波士顿碳中和交通系统方案分析系列文章的第二篇。本篇内容极为专注，针对碳中和交通8大策略逐一提供概述、情景建模与效益分析。8项策略如下所列：清洁交通策略、土地利用策略、公共交通策略、主动交通策略（即步行和自行车出行）、自动驾驶汽车策略、智能出行策略、出行定价策略及交通需求管理策略。波士顿对于城市交通碳中和途径的尝试并不领先，但就“碳中和”交通方案开展定性定量分析方法与结果却给相关领域研究人员提供了难得的方法示范和借鉴。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin: -50px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 15%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(237, 194, 113);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: -70px 0% 0px;font-size: 18px;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 5em;height: 5em;margin: auto;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;text-align: center;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;width: 100%;height: 5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;line-height: 1.2;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);font-size: 15px;padding: 10px;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">阅读</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">正文</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为您提供报告原文下载。<span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请后台留言联系我们下载）</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/5L9lnibz64eEl3zPKT1v23q99FXTlfcTSXALgGr3WPEEzhPwyGdzNbxF3e4Z5iaHmRyjFFnfrqkNGtfQZPBbVs7A/640?wx_fmt=png");background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 30.9266%;background-attachment: scroll;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% -20px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(171, 224, 225);font-size: 24px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">续上篇</p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 19px;line-height: 1.6;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: -12px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 45px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/v3xI9MjvZ4po37ibeiaKtJfzFDe4Jbxpk3aL2rsPicFuTjmPiapsMjpibxeDLY7gcqDS3bQv4XIFTRGRicSQwmzd2dFA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.25380710659898476" data-w="197"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin: 5px 0% -15px;transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 40px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/pZD4U2EBDaic4wiamUC59osvIPCMicuPFcTNEfOUBaaKRibc7icDtzrQVJKo1NnJDCbsGwPbeALVo6FoHSt9lSSCP1g/640?wx_fmt=png");background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(62, 62, 62);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(3px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(3px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(3px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(3px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1;padding: 0px 3px;letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(93, 86, 93) 1.73205px 1px 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(93, 86, 93) 1.73205px 1px 2px;font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box;">8.政策效果分析</span></strong></span></p></section></section><section style="text-align: left;transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-25px, 0px, 0px);margin: -22px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 25px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;line-height: 1;font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: right;margin: -13px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px) rotateY(180deg);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px) rotateY(180deg);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px) rotateY(180deg);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px) rotateY(180deg);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 37px;height: 20px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-image: url("http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4diaQciccnXGDJqhKyzgDfTGuK8iceXqEtWKF3GjRODElVSRSRicDkYbdSic5cHtImRbNnNySnCrpicgibwP2ibBShsZTg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1 清洁交通</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在不影响行驶里程的情况下，依靠低碳或无碳清洁能源的交通体系是实现低碳排放的基石。市场预测，到2050年40%到90%的轻型车辆将被电力驱使。该目标实现必须依靠当地出台的政策和方针，在各家各户或工作地点能提供电动车充电系统，为电力充值基础设施投资，或其他的方式去激励首批使用者——除此之外还要降低电池的价格，增加传统能源的购买价格和发明清洁的电力能源。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在城市的政策下，轻型和中型的卡车也能被电气化，这些车主要用于商业运营；为了电化交通系统和学校巴士的公交系统，城市应与州政府和当地参与者协调完成这一目标。重型卡车可能会需要先进的生物能源，实现这一目标离不开国家或州出台的方针政策。卡车和巴士的电气化将会为减轻排放有害气体作出巨大的贡献。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">清洁车辆的政策情境体现了政策和市场因素的结合，包括一个基线和五个可备选的电气化场景。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.2 建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">精细模型用于计算电化交通（包括轻型轿车、中型卡车、巴士和通勤铁路）节能减排的效应，采用2008年AEO报告中的燃油效率。我们假设，提高电动车在车辆总数中所占的比例，就可以提高整体的燃油效率，但实际上由于联邦政策对汽车制造商的整体燃油效率的计算方式是采用所有车型的平均值，在一处销售的电动车带来的效益可能被在电动车监管不严的地区重型车辆的销售所抵消。然而随着电力交通越来越广泛的推广，当地的政策应该帮助刺激消费者对电力交通的需求和降低使用电力交通的价格，这样从长远角度出发，电力交通是低能耗低价格的交通方式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.3  VMT与温室气体排放效益</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6icG71VxQn5eNQRupWLb787j1AUYXZVf3DzFfMBHricjgkRnfrc5zgh0g/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.524390243902439" data-w="738"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图24、电动车的气体排放量：波士顿居民的基线出行情况</em></span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图24是2030年和2050年各种电气化场景的基线排放量，假设波士顿以外的居民电动车采用率仅达到基线。在大多数情境中，2030年的减排不明显，只有情境4和5有了明显的降低，2050年随电气化市场渗透率增加而效果更明显。情境3稍高于情境2，由于其混合动力车辆占比更高。情境5全面电气化在2050年相比基线也仅减少了40%，由于区域外部车辆与重型车辆所受影响有限。预计在2050年温室气体的排放量与2016相比会降低三分之二。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6kLEHF1uw7MhanSu2KBChsyUvwSNNJHboPyj5nLFpy97gLOXuzdVHIA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.5406896551724137" data-w="725"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图25、电动车的温室气体排放量：普通行驶，所有住户</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图25包含了波士顿以外的居民，假设其电动车采用率与波士顿均等。现在在“全面电气化”场景中，排放减少了90%以上，剩余来自重型车辆。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通电气化可能会降低交通成本，导致出行进一步增加，这被称为“刺激需求”效应，预测2030年电动车的车均行驶里程增加9%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.4 电力需求的影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC68xz6Cia7tIcsicLajrf4lTpHtbIIgQgagNeJPUGlywBJwtCpg7PT7avA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.5479833101529903" data-w="719"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图26、交通电力需求：基线出行，波士顿的住户</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果波士顿居民的电动车在家充电，年度电力需求会在2050年达到9千亿度，比现在增加了16%，也对峰时用电产生影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.5 其他影响因素</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">电力交通能减少空气污染，并且有助于身体健康。与2050年的电力基础水准相比，我们期待全电气化情境能减少8900吨的PM2.5排放。氮氧化物的排放将减少258000吨或65%。在2050年有害物质的排放在交通领域的减少所带来的价值等于节省了13亿美元医疗支出。电气化公共交通为有害气体的减少做出了最大的贡献，因为这些中型交通工具在使用传统燃料时所放出的有害气体远比轻型交通所放出的有害气体要多。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.6 公平性</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在初期，电力交通的实现要花费很多，但是随着时间的推移其运行和维护花费会大大节省。在初期，电力交通的购买者很可能是高收入消费者群体，因此任何补贴或是刺激策略更倾向于高收入的家庭。然后随着电力交通常年的发展，低收入家庭会从中受益。加快卡车电气化的政策会对卡车路线与工业区周边的居民带来公平性的效益。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.1.7 政策探讨</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">实现清洁能源的交通运输系统，需要交通部门的参与，来提供交通运输所需的充电设施；同时也需要电力部门的参与，来向交通运输部门提供清洁的能源并且还要满足交通所需的电量。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">不受波士顿市控制的因素包括：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      电池成本</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      电力和石油的相对价格</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      联邦政府或州政府的激励政策</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">受波士顿市控制的因素：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      城市汽车的电气化</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      充电设施</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其他激励政策：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      降低电动车的税收</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      免费或低价停车</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      开放高乘载量车道</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      消费者与车辆服务运营者教育</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      禁止燃油汽车上路</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.2 土地使用</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地使用政策在管理出行需求和改善可达性方面发挥着重要作用。区域预测显示，到2040年，波士顿的人口将增长13％。生活在交通便利、可步行街区的波士顿居民比在城郊分散且交通较少的街区的居民驾驶量少一半。因为波士顿的VMT预计不会以与人口和就业相同的速度增长，使用区域预测增长模式将更有效地评估波士顿新居民和就业的发展。在模拟分析情境中，波士顿将着重发展位于中心位置的交通便利社区，进一步改变增长模式可能会使VMT再减少3％。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如1.3节所示，波士顿居民的人均VMT和温室气体排放量已经低于边远社区的居民。最近趋势显示，该市到2050年预计将有超过115000名新居民，远远超过区域预测中的结果。随着实施政策以吸收更大范围内周边社区的区域增长，即使温室气体净排放量在城市内增加，但区域内的总排放量将下降。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.2.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地使用变化通过将人员和工作定位在交通便利的地点以减少VMT和温室气体排放。“交通高效率位置”通常以混合用途地块、（例如：在居住区域的步行范围内的邻近商业）、中到高密度、良好的步行基础设施为特征。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大多数波士顿社区已经实现交通高效率。因此，从城市内部紧凑的土地使用模式中获得的收益可能小于关注城市中心（如波士顿）区域增长的政策。尽管如此，未来的人口和就业增长仍将适应公共交通导向，发展位于中心的社区有其必要性。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通效率高的土地利用规划原则包括：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?土地使用政策，区划变化，密度红利及开发审查过程以支持在公交服务良好的地区实现紧凑的综合用途开发</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?限制公交服务不足的地区的发展量</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?规划整个城市街区的职住平衡，以便人们可以住在他们工作的地方附近</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?通过其他土地使用政策支持减少汽车拥有和使用，例如取消住宅停车最低要求以及要求步行友好的建筑和场地设计</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.2.2  建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">概化模型中提出一种备选增长情境，即在人均VMT低于平均水平的社区中人口增长，而在其他社区减少。在备选情境中，新居民的人均VMT被假定与同一社区的现有居民相同。每个波士顿社区以此为基础估计出社区内以家庭为单位的VMT，以及该社区的预期增长。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在精细模型中，测试了两种备选土地利用情境：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.新的住宅和就业增长从预测地点转移到Imagine Boston 2030的优先增长区域</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.新的住宅和就业增长从预测地点转移到位于中心的公交交通量大的社区</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在这两种情况下，新居民和工作者被认为与邻居的现有居民和工作者具有相同的出行模式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.2.3 VMT与温室气体排放效益 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在概化模型中，将所有人口增长重定向到低于平均水平的VMT社区的情境将VMT和温室气体排放量在2030年减少了约0.3％，在2050年减少了0.7％。较低的影响是由于大多数社区人均VMT普遍较低和相对保守的预测增长水平。若使用波士顿市的较高增长预测将按比例增加收益。转移就业地点的影响可能很复杂，而且无法使用模型进行评估。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在精细模型中，将预测地点50％的新增长重新分配到Go Boston优先增长区域（从非优先区域移除并按基础预测增长的比例添加到优先区域）的情境增加了VMT，至2050年全区最多增加1%（仅波士顿为2.5％）。这可能表明测试的增长模式不比基础预测模式更具交通效率。目前的增长预测已显示大部分增长进入位于中心位置的社区，具有强大的交通可达性（图13）。土地利用情境评估可能很复杂，出行模式取决于住宅和就业增长的位置。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">第二种情况是将四分之三的新人口增长指向位于中心位置的交通便利社区，将波士顿地区的VMT减少了大约3％，VMT在波士顿的出行减少了大约6％。这表明，交通效率高的土地利用模式有助于减少温室气体排放，超出预期效益。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.2.4 公平性以及其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通效率高的土地使用模式可以改善就业、服务、抵达其他目的地的方式，并增加所需的住房供应，而不会增加出行的数量或能源消耗。适合步行和自行车出行的社区人口和就业增长将促进锻炼活动，从而利于健康并节省相关的医疗保健成本。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增加波士顿中心社区住房的土地使用策略应通过扩大供应来降低住房成本，使所有收入水平的家庭受益。土地使用政策可以制定为专门支持公平目标，例如通过包容性区划（即为低收入家庭预留一个新项目中某一部分单位），关联费用或其他规章来增加经济适用房的供给。另一方面，可能需要采取缓解政策来保护现有居民（特别是租房者）免受高档化和特定社区房价上涨的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.2..5 政策讨论</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">波士顿市近年来已经致力于增强目标地区的发展，特别是在交通枢纽附近，以满足住房需求并支持经济增长。可在以下领域考虑进一步完善政策：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?减少停车需求，以适应市场偏好零汽车拥有量和降低住房成本</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?分区规定增加住房供应，特别是规模较小，经济适用房的住房供应;</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?扩展了TDM要求的实施（参见TDM战略）</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增长也需要能够处理增加容量的交通系统来支持。在波士顿以外发生的增长将给交通系统带来更大的压力，因为人们将拥有更少的交通选择，并将行驶更长的距离。中心位置交通效率的增长将最大限度地减少经济发展对区域温室气体排放的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3 公共交通</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公共交公共交通投资则有着相对温和的温室气体减排，但也为所有人口群体提供了改善流动性和可达性的实质性“共同利益”。考虑到波士顿的公交系统超负荷运转，公交投资对于支持波士顿中心地区的人口和就业增长也是必不可少的，这将减少区域温室气体排放。公共交通减价也可以在鼓励模式转变中发挥重要作用。波士顿市需要与MBTA和其他区域利益相关方合作，制定交通改善和融资解决方案，以实现这些效益。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">假设使用清洁技术公交车辆，全面的低成本交通改进计划以改善公交车的出行时间和可靠性，如信号优先和排队跳道，可以减少400吨二氧化碳当量的温室气体排放。增加铁路和快速公交服务的成本扩张，包括《波士顿2030》所要求的项目和《MBTA Focus 40》的草案计划，可以将温室气体排放量减少至少2000吨二氧化碳当量。这些只是直接模式转换效应，不包括围绕交通的集群开发（在土地使用策略下考虑）或减少道路拥堵的温室气体效益。为步行通行旅行提供免费交通票价，以及为驾车出行旅行提供半价票价，可以减少近30000吨二氧化碳当量的温室气体排放，并将往返波士顿的VMT减少近4％。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">进行了三组公共交通政策模拟（如前所述，除了公交车辆的电气化）：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      通过交叉口改进，专用公交车道以及MBTA关键公交线路上其他相对低成本的运营改进，提高公交车的效率和可靠性;</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      实施快速公交和铁路项目在《波士顿2030》和《MBTA Focus 40》的计划草案中确定了这些标准。这些标准确定了大约42英里的新快速公交服务和35英里的新城市轨道服务，居民认为这是高优先级。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对步行通道（主要是公共汽车和地铁）免票，并为驾车通道（主要是通勤铁路和渡轮）减少50％的票价。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3.2 建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">运营改进</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在概化模型中，评估运营改进的方法类似于交通和气候倡议研究中所采用的方法，该研究由11个东北和大西洋中部各州以及哥伦比亚特区组成的联盟完成。研究中对运营改进进行了建模，包括队列换道、交通信号优先等。这些改进的共同作用是通过更快地将公交车穿过交叉路口并减少公交车站的延误来改善行驶时间和可靠性。这些假设是在目前位于波士顿市内的155英里的“关键巴士路线”（由MBTA定义并使用GTFS数据测量）上实施的。主要假设包括：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      每条路线的出行时间在2030年节省3％，在2050年节省5%；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      每条路线平均每周运行408次（GTFS数据）;</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      平均速度为每小时10.4英里（MBTA公交车英里数除以NTD报告的车辆营收小时数）；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      平均乘客量为13名；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      乘客旅行时间弹性为-0.8（即旅行时间缩短10％导致乘客人数增加8；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●      对于新车手，45％的人会驾驶或使用共享移动服务。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">温室气体的好处在于，既可以减少公共汽车的空转，也可以减少由于乘客人数增加导致的汽车VMT减少。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在精细模型中，基于整个系统的交通时间平均减少5％这一假设，测试了系统范围的运营情况。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《波士顿行动计划》和《Focus40投资》</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新的快速公交和铁路服务的影响在初拟模型中进行了测试，假设这些服务具有与现有MBTA服务相同的平均负载系数（快速公交13条，铁路26条）和频率类似于现有的大容量服务。这将新增加86000个新的公共汽车服务营收时间和192000个车辆年度营收新建铁路服务营业时间。假设这些项目在2030年建成50％，到2050年建成100％。假设现有的公交服务或乘客没有变化，灵敏度测试检查了公交车燃料类型（柴油与电动）对结果的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">公交票价减价</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们使用精细模型来衡量票价减少的效果。进入或离开波士顿的公交旅次中，两端步行的旅客车费全免，一端驾驶的旅客公交票价减少了50％。我们采用这种建模方式，是因为模型不区分公交模式，而区分去往或离开公交车站的交通方式。驾车去往公交车站则通常对应于通勤铁路、渡轮、外围车站的地铁以及一些通勤巴士服务的长途出行。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3.3 VMT与温室气体排放效益 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">使用概化模型得到的温室气体减排测算效果适中——每年可以减少高达400吨的二氧化碳排放。采用新方法的好处更大但效果仍然适中，使用概化模型测算，在2050年每年可以减少高达8200吨二氧化碳的排放，或使用精细模型测算，每年可以减少650到2100吨二氧化碳的排放，具体取决于是否使用电动汽车。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公交投资对汽车VMT的相对影响将更大。精细模型预测，《波士顿行动计划》交通投资将使整个地区的自动VMT减少0.5％，在波士顿市内减少1.3％。然而，汽车VMT减少的部分温室气体效益将被增加的公交温室气体排放所抵消，除非以极低碳或零碳能源发电组合供电。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">减少或消除公交票价可带来更多显着优势，区域出行的VMT将减少3.8％，波士顿出行的VMT将减少2.7％。这导致2050年区域温室气体减排量接近30000吨二氧化碳当量。这一估算并未考虑增加乘客量所需的额外服务所产生的温室气体排放量。在高峰期和非高峰期，减价方案将使区域公交出行增加近18％，这可能需要增加额外的服务，至少在达到或接近容量的高峰线路上。分阶段实施此政策而对整体影响较小的一种方法是仅在非高峰期或特定出行方向上降低票价。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3.4 其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">从温室气体成本效益的角度来看，公交投资和服务改进很少看起来有利。然而，它们提供了重要的移动优势，沿着私人车辆无法有效服务的走廊移动大量人员。模拟的运营改进将共同为公交车乘客每年节省270万小时的旅行时间，而不会增加运营成本。新的Go Boston的服务可以满足每日75000次的旅客出行，公交乘载量增加5％以上。几乎五分之四的乘客量增加将发生在非高峰期，当时该地区的交通系统会有更多的容量。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果波士顿的高容量交通系统不存在，对交通系统的影响将是巨大的。VMT将增加10％以上，导致超过1000万小时的车辆延误，经济价值为1.27亿美元，以及温室气体排放量增加。波士顿的交通系统因产能紧张而需要额外的大容量公交投资来支持未来的增长。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3.5 公平性 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公交改善为全市范围内不能或不愿驾驶的人们提供了前往就业地点的交通。根据2015—2017年MBTA全系统乘客调查，42％的公交车乘客和26％的快速公交车乘客为收入低群体。在为波士顿社区服务的多条公交线路上，有一半到三分之二的乘客是低收入者。这些社区的感觉出行时间和可靠性改善将帮助居民按时到达工作地点、商场、学校、医疗机构和其他场所，并为除此之外的活动腾出时间。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">免费或降低票价将为每年16亿美元的公交企业带来经济利益，其公平性影响将取决于用于提供票价补贴的收入来源。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.3.6 政策讨论</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">《波士顿行动计划》确定的大部分投资都需要通过MBTA的资本规划以及联邦和州资金的支持来实施。波士顿是发展州和地区交通融资计划的利益相关者，但不是主要决策者，现有的资金来源不足以实施《波士顿行动计划》所描述的投资计划。快速公交车改进通常比改善铁路状况的成本更低，并且在短期和中期更容易执行，尽管使用现有轨道的新铁路服务也是成本可行的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作为当地街道的所有者和运营商，波士顿市政厅在提高公交效率上具有更大的影响力。目前正在努力通过测试专用车道、信号优先级和其他功能，在波士顿地区的多个地点试行“快速公交”改进。但是，实施仍需在跨界线路上与MBTA、MassDOT以及潜在的邻近城镇进行合作。公交服务改善的广泛实施需要波士顿及其居民仔细考虑，并最恰当地使用稀缺的道路空间。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">票价政策需综合考虑MBTA制定。票价政策的任何重大变化都需要在州一级与MBTA的新收入来源（例如本报告中评估的道路收费政策）进行协调，以弥补票价收入减少带来的资金缺口。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4 主动交通</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文中试验的主动交通政策包括投资Go Boston 2030中确定的自行车优先的设施，以及全市范围内的步行道的改善。Go Boston项目确定了波士顿街区新增52英里的街道上自行车道和隔离的自行车道以及共享使用道路，以及"完整街道"政策的应用，以便街道安全地服务于所有出行模式和所有使用者。假设整个城市和邻近社区都进行了全面的骑行设施改进，则是额外设置的另一种情况。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4.2 建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在概化模型中，对骑行设施投资进行建模时，假设每新建一英里的骑行设施会增加200000英里的年度自行车行驶里程，这是根据文献中自行车需求弹性和不同水平的投资计算得到的。我们测试了一系列投资水平，从Go Boston中的52英里到250英里的骑行设施网络，那时这些骑行设施将大致覆盖了整个城市，平行方向的自行车道之间仅隔半英里。步行道的改进在模型中体现为新增行程少于2英里的部分按比例转为步行。步行道和自行车道路的改进还可以支持新兴的"微动力出行"，如电动自行车和电动滑板车。模型假设45%的新自行车使用者由驾驶出行者转换而来，与根据MBTA车手调查数据得到的之前的新增公共交通乘客的主要出行模式比例相近。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在精细模型中，骑行设施投资的建模是通过将Go Boston项目所服务区域之间的出行时间减少42%来实现的。出行时间的缩短是根据其他研究所观察到的分离骑行设施的感知效益所做的估计。步行道投资的建模方法是将"步行道环境因子"在全市提高了10%，此因子是非机动模式选择模型的组成部分，基于步道的多少，并受到车辆流量和速度以及卡车路线的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">精细模型中的"低成本移动"情境结合了主动交通和公共交通运营，除了城市步行道的改善外，所有地区骑行的出行时间减少了42%，并且假定公共交通运营的改进将整个服务区的公共交通出行时间缩短了5%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4.3 VMT与温室气体排放效益 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">概化模型预测，Go Boston自行车投资将适度减少VMT和GHG，在Go Boston设定的投资水平下减少约0.1%，而如果应用半英里间距的全市自行车道网络，甚至可能高达0.5%。这对应2030年800万到5000万英里不等的新增自行车里程，其中后者大约是目前的两倍。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">精细模型预测，全市范围内的主动交通投资将消除89000日均VMT，几乎全部在波士顿市内，相当于从波士顿开始和结束行程的VMT的2.9%（或区域VMT的0.9%)。这相当于在大多数EV情境下每年减少4000至8000吨二氧化碳（在清洁车辆情境4和5下，2050年更少），或者2030年和2050年基准交通部门温室气体排放量的0.6%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">精细模型中预测，假设车辆技术维持基线水平，低成本移动情境（包括全市范围的步行和区域的骑行和公共交通运营）到2050年将轻型VMT减少3.3%，温室气体排放量减少26000吨二氧化碳当量，即总量的2.4%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">即使一小部分的自行车是电动的，对温室气体排放的影响也微乎其微，因为与汽车相比，电动自行车的能耗相当低（估计为0.017千瓦时/英里）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4.4 其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与公共交通一样，步行和骑行设施投资可能只减少少量温室气体，但它们也提供了重要的交通社会福利，使更多的人能够使用低成本的方式到达目的地。精细模型预测，对于波士顿的主动交通投资，波士顿市内主动模式的PMT（个人出行里程）每天将增长120000英里或11%。在波士顿最拥挤的地区，骑自行车和步行有时比任何其他方式都快。自行车和步行投资也通过促进身体活动，从而减少心脏病、糖尿病和其他疾病，为公众健康带来显著益处。体育活动节省的医疗保健费用估计约为每英里步行或骑自行车0.21美元。如果将降低死亡率和发病率的非保健费用按每英里约1.50美元计，这些福利每年将达6000万美元。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图27按社区显示了Go Boston投资方案在主动PMT方面的变化。在较偏远的社区（高达20%），相对变化最大，尽管这些社区起点较低。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4.5 公平性</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">步行和骑自行车是成本最低的旅行方式，步行几乎是免费的，骑自行车的费用估计仅为每英里2美分，而开车一英里的费用高达55到60美分，乘坐公共交通工具每次出行的费用约为1.70到2.75美元。因此，改善步行和骑自行车的条件可以惠及低收入旅行者，他们可能正在寻找一个低成本的旅行选择，但在交通拥挤的情况下骑自行车或步行并不舒适。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6qI1SbgWcV2Xm3oGH6mBcXgUugWiad5gXLpAiaXMjicVLH1ufTvmp2WZwA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.9946524064171123" data-w="748"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图27、按社区显示的Go Boston投资方案在主动PMT方面的变化</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.4.6 政策讨论</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">步行和骑自行车的投资主要在城市控制之下，因为它对所有地方街道拥有管辖权，在国道设计方面拥有很大发言权。此外，区域（波士顿MPO）和州（马萨诸塞州交通部）的政策也支持"完整街道"，由州资助的任何道路工程都必须适合自行车道和步行道的使用者。获得充足的资金是执行这项政策的一个障碍;随着道路工程的进行，可以随着时间的推移进行简单的更改（例如车道分隔），但与简单的道路修复或重建相比，更复杂的更改（如建造街边自行车道或单独的自行车道）可能会增加项目费用。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其他支持性政策，如适当的自行车停车位、对所有道路使用者适用交通法律以及对骑自行车者和驾车者进行自行车技能教育，对于基础设施的改善也是十分重要的补充。但是，数据无法量化这些政策独立于骑行设施投资的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">今后需要进一步考虑的一个重要政策问题是，为不同使用者（汽车出行、公共汽车、骑自行车者、行人和停车者）确定道路空间的优先级。在Go Boston中提出的项目将扩大波士顿的自行车基础设施，但并不会达到北欧一些世界领先的城市的水平，那些城市的自行车模式比例达到20%至40%或更多，尽管这些城市的人口密度也达到了只在波士顿的核心街区才能达到的水平，以及高得多的燃料和私人汽车拥有成本。要在波士顿实现可观的自行车模式份额（例如，10%或更多，意味着比当前水平至少增加4倍），则至少需要一个与机动交通分开的骑行设施的综合网络。鉴于波士顿的街道空间有限，这需要重新确定街道空间与汽车的优先级（即减少行驶车道或停车车道，甚至两者都减少）。随着时间的推移，这可能变得更加可行，因为共享移动服务、自动驾驶车辆和其他技术的进步使得在不过度影响非自行车使用者的移动性的情况下实现此计划成为可能。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5 无人私家车</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">自动驾驶汽车具有改变交通行业的巨大潜力，但我们尚且无法理解具体改变的方式。自动驾驶的私家车使得出行更加便捷，让残障人士和不会开车的人也能拥有私人小汽车，因此极有可能增加VMT。但自动驾驶车也会降低每英里的能耗。城市或州应实行一些政策（例如拥堵收费）来管理自动驾驶出行，尤其是限制不载人车辆的低效通行（例如为逃避停车收费的通行）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们并不确定自动驾驶车辆何时能够在公共道路上大规模地部署，在何时能够得到业界和公众的广泛支持并实现足够的市场渗透率这个问题上，目前也没有完整的时间节点。有从业者认为2030年能够达到10到20个百分点的渗透率，而在2050年达到40至60个百分点。尽管并不确定，但假设空载车辆能够被很好地管理，我们预计潜在的出行需求在10到20个百分点之间。另一方面，研究者表明，在低渗透率下，自动驾驶车辆比人驾驶车辆节能约10%。当渗透率提高，自动驾驶车辆能以编队行驶，拥堵减少，能耗可以减少约15%到20%。在这种情况下，自动驾驶私家车对温室气体排放并没有影响。如果采用清洁能源的比例高于人驾驶车辆，自动驾驶私家车对温室气体的排放还能产生净效益。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">目前的策略其实是一种情境分析（自动驾驶车辆的引入和持续增长的市场份额）和政策尝试的组合，来管理自动驾驶的车辆和使用。这个策略针对自动驾驶私家车，即被私人家庭购买，用于替换手动驾驶的汽车或小卡车。自动驾驶车并不一定“网联”（即与其它车辆或基础设施通信），部分时段也会由人类司机来开。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在未来可预见的一段时间里，自动驾驶车辆会比人类驾驶车辆贵，但由于保险和能耗成本的下降，保养起来更便宜。许多专家认为，自动驾驶车辆会最先被出行服务商（例如Uber和Lyft）用于作为共享出行车队的一部分，来提供出行服务。自动驾驶车辆在共享出行中的使用会在“智能出行”策略中涉及。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">自动驾驶车辆即有可能增加温室气体排放，也有具有降低排放的潜力。在私人领域，自动驾驶车辆可能从三个方面增加车辆出行里程：（1）人们出行更加便捷；（2）让之前没有条件开车的人（老人，孩子，残障人士等）也享受到汽车出行；（3）让车辆可以空载出行（寻找停车位，或者在去接人的路上）。但由于自动驾驶车辆的运行会比人驾驶车更高效，每英里出行的排放量极有可能会下降。自动驾驶车能够接受更短的车头时距，减少事故造成的拥堵，因此也极有可能增加目前街道系统的允许交通量，这也有助于降低能源消耗和排放。这些影响对温室气体总体效益如何尚且不得而知。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">用于管理自动驾驶车辆，降低其增加行驶里程和温室气体排放的政策仍在襁褓之中。一些可以考虑的政策包括：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●        对空载行驶车辆的限制和收费；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●        要求在市区行驶的自动驾驶车辆使用清洁能源；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●        对私人使用自动驾驶车收取额外的登记费用，或提供激励措施限制私人使用；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">禁止自动驾驶私家车的购买和使用。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5.2 模型建立</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这里通过建立一个简易模型来测试上述各种不确定性带来的影响。主要的不确定性和各自的影响范围列在下表中。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">表15 主要的自动驾驶车假设</p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6WzaiamyO7NiaaGUGArufZMlh41RKxpKgWFKcXj9rWQq38z7erGwdeOCQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.6357243319268636" data-w="711"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">不受监管的自动驾驶私家车所带来的影响通过精细模型进行测试。测试基于以下影响私家车在波士顿出行的输入条件：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●         2020年市场占有率达到20%，2050年达到50%；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●         车内出行时间减少20%；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●         运营成本减少$0.05/英里；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●         停车成本减少75%（假设自动驾驶车能够找到更偏僻，也更便宜的停车位）；</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●         没有车的家庭减少10%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">私家车受到监管的情况也进行了测试。在测试中，通过对用户收费来抵消出行时间，运营成本和停车成本带来的影响。没有车的家庭这项假设得到保留。需要注意的是，以上这些成本变化和相应的抵消是对所有开始或结束于波士顿的出行都适用的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5.3 VMT与温室气体排放效益 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">精细模型预测显示，在不受监管的情况下，在2050年如果轻量车市场渗透率会增加20%，行驶里程会增加2%；若是市场渗透率达到50%，行驶里程则增加6%。假设每车每英里效率有10%的提升，但没有清洁能源技术实施的要求，温室气体排放会增加1%。在有监管的情况下，排放会在2030或2050年的基准线上降低1到3个百分点。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下图28展示的是在市场渗透率25%，能耗效率提升10%的情况下，简单模型预测出的温室气体排放随着每户家庭出行里程变化而产生的变化。在编队行驶的条件下，出行里程保持不变，温室气体排放降低2%。排放在行驶里程增加到12-13%时开始增长。如果所有车辆必须是电动车，即便出行里程持续增长，温室气体排放也能够降低10%。（这是以2030年较为保守的电气化水平作为基准线假设得到的；更高的电气化水平基准线会降低清洁自动驾驶车的排放减少效益。）</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6BWDiaUsPE5zplqicXtN9nlv2n8xBbL6Cg1eC5hlyZCooSSzoqe1uybVA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.5436893203883495" data-w="618"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图28 自动驾驶车排放效益敏感性分析</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5.4 其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">自动驾驶私家车能够让出行更为便捷，为人们提供出行便利，但这也会降低行驶里程，并可能吸引来自别的交通模式的乘客。精细模型显示20%的自动驾驶车市场占有率对公交和非机动车的出行影响较为有限，将各自降低约2-3%。在不受监管情况下，增加的机动车出行里程会轻微地增加空气污染。由于自动驾驶车对安全性能的提升，安全会得到显著改善。拥堵情况的变化取决于自动驾驶车行驶效率的提升能否抵消车辆里程增加带来的负担。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5.5 公平性影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于不方便驾车群体，如老人或残疾人，自动驾驶车辆能够为他们提供出行的便利。但是，由于富人更能够承担自动驾驶车辆较为高昂的成本（尽管高昂的购买成本可能会被后期较低的保险费抵消），这部分便利主要被较为富有的人群享受。自动驾驶技术长期的成本和其对不同收入群体的影响尚且不明确。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.5.6 政策讨论 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管自动驾驶车辆对出行者的影响此时还无法完全确定，不受监管的自动驾驶车较有可能增加出行里程和温室气体排放。收费，或是其它能够将外部成本转移为自身成本的政策工具应该给予适当考虑，例如基于载客率和行驶里程对自动驾驶车计费。全线叫停自动驾驶私家车，或是限制自动驾驶车仅在某些场合运营也是一种选项，但这里仍然推荐采用一定的政策工具，在发挥自动驾驶在通行，安全和环境上的有利因素的同时，规避其负面影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.6  智能出行</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.6.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本报告中"智能出行"的重点是共享车辆服务，特别是网约车和微型公交。共享移动服务目前由人运作，但将来可能由营利性或非营利组织运营的自动驾驶(AV)车队来提供。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">此处智能出行战略是外部驱动的技术场景和本地管理策略的组合。目前共享移动服务（包括网约车、出租车和拼车）在波士顿排放总量中约占VMT的5%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">智能出行服务可能会增加或减少VMT和温室气体排放。因为智能出行车辆需要调度，以在完成行程后去接另一个用户（也即空回），可能会增加VMT。然而它们可以降低私家车拥有量，这已证明可以减少每户的平均VMT。智能出行服务的平均占用率（每辆车的乘坐人数）也是对排放整体影响的关键驱动因素。目前，智能出行车辆的技术与私家车相似；然而公司拥有的无人车车队的兴起将支持更广泛地使用电气化技术（混合动力或全电动），因为其密集使用将节省运营成本。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.6.2 建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在概化模型中，假设了智能出行市场渗透率增加的情境。模型还用于检查比如技术（车队维持平均水平或全部采用EV）、工作和非工作出行的车辆占用率、由于迂回出行（即为多名乘客提供服务的方式）而增加的VMT和车辆空回（由车辆的调度导致），如果出行者不采用智能出行方式的情况下的方式分担率以及居民车辆拥有量的变化所带来的影响。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">智能出行在CTPS模型中并不作为一种模式存在，因此对于精细模型，该模式已使用大致反映当前状况的特定模式的常数进行校准。该模型还用于探索如果所提供的服务的吸引力与私人拥有的车辆相当（即模式选择仅基于行驶时间和成本的差异），智能出行的使用率可能会增加多少。对独自出行和共享乘车的选项单独建模；相比于独自开车，共享乘车的每次出行的成本降低而出行所用时间增加。通过查看Uber和Lyft票价的已公布的公式以及最近的行程收据，估算了当前服务的成本。对家庭车辆拥有量（零车家庭的百分比）进行了手动调整。表16展示了智能出行的关键假设。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表16 智能出行情境的关键假设</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6wEJMlDjQtjeQR2uSIJDXSweHibz0ZQezLVSEBIgBWfABGeQz1taib27A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.9443413729128015" data-w="539"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.6.3 VMT与温室气体排放的影响 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据概化模型，图29和图30说明了随着车辆占用率高于当前水平和先前驾驶模式份额上升或下降，温室气体排放将如何变化。图29假设智能机动车辆与2030年的基准车队相同；图30假定它们全面电气化。这两个数字都假定共享移动模式占10%。入住人数增加0.2意味着工作出行的入住人数将从每辆车1.1人增至1.3人，非工作人员从每辆车1.6人增至1.8人。图31显示了GHG如何因汽车拥有率、车辆技术和占用率的不同假设而改变，此前的开车出行比例为41%，市场渗透率为10%。所有图中假定的迂回/空驶系数为1.5。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图30显示，如果所有智能出行车辆都是电动的，则在当前占据优势地位的驾驶模式比例的假设下，温室气体将基本没有变化。由于电动汽车效率较高，占用率对这种情况下的排放变化影响较小。图31显示，如果10%的共享移动性使用使得汽车拥有量减少5%，则如果每辆车的占用率仅增加0.2人，则GHG排放量可能会随着基线技术的提升而减少，如果每辆车的占用率增加0.2人，则温室气体排放量会减少更多（约4%），如果所有智能出行车辆都是电动的。（在概化模型中，假定汽车拥有量减少5%，将非共享移动性VMT减少5%。）</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6k2r6l20vGxnvyvcqqZ5jK4nAR3pszDOm4tUpV4OptnDPicD9LE1RGTg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.5352697095435685" data-w="723"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图二十九、共享出行，技术处于平均水平下2030温室气体排放的变化</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">注：假定总的共享出行的模式占比为10%</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6lzRmr58iahdDdqTYCV7f0afOK1uME44V7aqqiazFQh6N4qUwSLITHd0g/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.5482954545454546" data-w="704"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三十、共享出行，电动汽车技术下2030温室气体排放的变化</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">注：假定总的共享出行的模式占比为10%</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6sbulhKumEFPjhIXKib50IBXyh7GznBuIyzYiaOmYXnt54PkD1EooxxOw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.5447263017356475" data-w="749"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三十一、共享出行，技术和车辆拥有量引起2030温室气体排放的变化<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">注：假定总的共享出行的模式占比为10%</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">文中还使用精细模型对智能出行进行了评估。一种情况假设智能出行模式份额略有增加（6%），而负智能出行模式常数限制了其对许多出行者的吸引力（例如，由于使用应用程序带来的额外麻烦、将个人物品放置在自己的车辆中的便利，与陌生人一起乘车的风险，或只是对这种服务的不熟悉等）。如果没有管理策略，也没有对汽车拥有量方面的效应，直接的VMT将增加约3%，假设为1.3个迂回/空回系数的情况下，VMT总数将增长约5%。温室气体排放量将在2030年基线上增加约3%。通过单独乘坐出行的附加费（增加1美元/英里）来补贴共享乘车出行（成本降低1美元/英里）来实施补贴政策只会对VMT的增加产生轻微影响。如果智能出行车辆是电动、自动车辆，则温室气体排放量将减少1-2%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为了测试更极端的假设，评估了另一种情况，其中假定智能出行的吸引力与私家车相似，并且智能出行服务的广泛可用性将使汽车拥有率降低20%。根据这一假设，智能出行模式的份额约为28%，大致相等地分给单独乘车和共享乘车。直接的VMT（即载客的里程）将在全区范围内减少8%，长途出行的降幅较大，而仅在波士顿市内发生的出行几乎没有变化。计入空回/迂回后，VMT的减少幅度将小于1%，在现有技术下的温室气体排放降低幅度将低于1%，使用清洁技术（以及基准技术水平的非智能出行车辆）的减排目标为22%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">微型公交是使用概化模型进行评估的，但不包括在精细模型中。其市场渗透率为5%，平均占用为6人（在整个的车辆每日行驶循环中），如果使用电动汽车，估计到2030年将温室气体排放量减少2.8%；如果车辆的技术与MDT（中型载重汽车）车队的平均排放量相同，则温室气体排放量将增加1.3%。将平均车辆占用人数提高到8人，到2030年采用电动汽车的话温室气体排放将减少3.6%，采用标准技术则减少0.6%的温室气体。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.6.4 其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果使用传统车辆技术，智能出行将产生与VMT增长相关的影响，包括空气污染和车祸的轻微增加。使用无人车和电动车技术将减轻这些负面影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">智能出行可能会将出行者从公共交通和非机动模式中吸引过来，对公共健康产生潜在的负面影响。在精细模型中28%的市场份额下，智能出行使用量的增加将吸引来自公共交通（净减少10%）和非机动方式（净减少17%）的出行，即使会促成汽车拥有量的减少。公共交通出行的减少几乎完全发生在非高峰时期，届时出行将减少25%；高峰时段公共交通载客量变化不大。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">有证据表明，现有的智能出行服务为低收入旅客提供了移动优势，提供了当交通、非机动或其他拼车服务不方便时的一种相对低成本的出行可能。如果无人车降低智能出行运营成本，未来收益可能会增加。然而，政策必须确保向低收入和少数群体社区和包括残疾人在内的所有出行者，提供公平的服务。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.6.5 政策讨论</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">智能出行服务可以是气候缓解和交通管理战略的核心组成部分。智能出行服务可以作为最后一英里解决方案，提高可用性并减少拥堵。为了实现这些目标，智能出行服务必须使用清洁的车辆，并采用共享乘车的形式减少人们单独的点到点驾驶出行。如果智能出行服务无法做到这一点，它们可能反而会增加排放和拥堵。清洁车队的要求是公共部门引导智能出行朝着温室气体减排方向的一种方法。定价激励措施还有助于引导人们乘坐共享车，专家推测，智能出行-无人车车队的运营商将使用补贴，以最大限度地提高收入，这意味着最大化车辆占用率。然而，即使采用不错的价格激励或交叉补贴，对单独乘坐与共享乘车使用的比例也只有适中的影响。例如，在精细模型中，从单独乘坐到共享乘坐的每英里1美元的交叉补贴将独自骑行的次数减少了约五分之一，从109.1万次减少到86.5万次，而共享乘车的次数则有轻微的增长（从116.4万次到143.7万次）——这使得智能出行行程的单独行程比例从43%减少到38%，VMT也降低了3%。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些服务更广泛的市场渗透率以及更好的乘车匹配和出行优化算法可能有助于克服与拼车相关的固有的出行时间/便利性损失。将多模式行程（例如，共享乘车转公共交通，或步行到接取点）与智能出行应用和算法集成，可以降低成本、时间和排放。成功部署此类智能出行服务需要交通网络公司、MBTA和波士顿市之间的合作伙伴关系，以确定优化区域。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7 出行定价</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在各种出行需求政策中，价格政策的潜在影响最大。合适的定价可以帮助出行者将决策成本内部化、引导他们选择最高效的出行方式。进入波士顿市中心每天10-15美元的拥堵费，类似于伦敦、奥斯陆、新加坡的定价，可以在2050年将温室气体减少2％至3％，VMT减少高达4％，仅因模式转变，而不包含整体出行或活动模式的任何变化。相当于每次5美元的停车费可以使波士顿的VMT减少近12％，区域减少8％，到2050年的温室气体二氧化碳当量减少61000吨或5.6％。在州一级，每吨30美元的碳费可以进一步减少1.5％的温室气体，每英里0.20美元的行车里程税可以使温室气体减少2.3％。总体而言，积极定价的综合影响，包括拥堵费，5美元停车费，每英里0.20美元行车里程税以及免费或减免的公交票价，可以将VMT降低至少18％。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">定价政策产生的收入可用来投资于清洁交通，或用于减少其他形式的税收。定价政策需谨慎实施，避免低收入家庭负担过重。为提高定价政策的公平性，可将相关收入投资于公交、骑行、步行设施，或为低收入出行者提供折扣，或为低收入家庭提供税收减免。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">价格是管理出行需求的最有效政策之一。目前，与基于票价的公交或通勤铁路出行相比，私人车辆出行的成本常被忽视。定价可以帮助出行者将出行的外部成本内部化。它虽然确实给出行者带来了额外的成本，但也产生了可通过再投资来改善交通系统或支持公平目标的收入。有多种州和地方层面的定价机制可供选择。波士顿市可选的定价政策包括：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?与马萨诸塞州政府合作，支持新的全州或区域定价机制，如碳费或行车里程税。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?与州政府合作，通过在现有收费设施上实行分时收费来引入拥堵收费。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?对驶入波士顿市中心的车辆征收拥堵费（拥堵费区域待定），类似于在伦敦、奥斯陆和新加坡的拥堵费。费用可能因时间和出行者类型（例如，乘客与商用车辆，居民或非居民）而异。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?扩大路边停车定价机制涵盖范围，以确保始终有车位，减少因寻找停车位而产生的燃油浪费，同时鼓励其他出行方式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?要求居民购买路边停车许可证，许可证的价格按每户家庭购买量累进。这可能有助于降低汽车保有量。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">?在上述政策中，选择性地为电动车和其他清洁车辆提供费用减免，并减免 车辆登记费或消费税。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些政策以不同方式影响出行和温室气体排放。表17列出了每种定价机制的主要影响以及实施情况。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表17 定价机制及其影响</strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6GSrumltrsxPS5iay8iaRqsSHVHY9eibkd54ruhLo7mJoE5xzOPj8HyGdA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="1.3703007518796992" data-w="532"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在上表中列出的机制中，波士顿目前对停车费和消费税的决定权最大。波士顿（与联邦和州政府机构合作）也可能对进入城市或使用特定道路的车辆收取拥堵费。有偿使用高速公路、机动车燃油税、登记费、碳价和拥堵费都是州政府可以实施的政策（州际高速公路的通行费或定价同时需要联邦政府批准）。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7.2 建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在概化模型中，通过将出行需求（VMT）和燃油效率相对出行成本的弹性来测试定价，取值来自2018年AEO参考案例中的VMT和燃油消耗。对于轻型车辆，VMT相对于燃油价格的弹性在2030年为-0.18，在2050年为-0.34，燃油效率相对于燃油价格的弹性在2030年为0.02，在2050年为0.08。概化模型允许四种类型的价格输入：碳附加费、汽油和柴油的燃油成本、每次车辆行程的价格，以及行车里程费。这些转换成每英里行程的等价成本后，可以用于弹性计算。在精细模型中，可以直接对某个区域或起始点更改价格，比概化模型更加详细。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7.3 VMT与温室气体排放的影响 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">很明显，精细模型显示出定价政策的影响远低于概化模型中使用的弹性。近期有其他温室气体研究对定价政策的影响进行了分析。例如，2015年使用联邦能源和减排政策分析工具（EERPAT）在马萨诸塞州交通部（MassDOT）进行的一项研究模拟了单个家庭的出行选择，估算得出每英里0.6美分的里程费将使全州温室气体排放减少0.2％。假定按线性比例，每英里5美分的费用将会使温室气体减少1.4％ - 比精细模型预测的要多，但远低于AEO计算出的弹性。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">按出行次数收费（例如停车或拥堵费）似乎比行车里程税、燃油税或碳价更具影响力。以下例子可以解释这一结果：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">每加仑汽油0.20美元?每吨碳26美元~0.01美元/VMT~0.04美元/行程</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因此，与只增加出行成本几美分的燃油费或碳价相比，每次出行2美元的停车费实际很高。对驶入波士顿市中心的车辆收取拥堵费对当地的影响很大，可将进入波士顿市中心的VMT降低10％，但这只代表进出城市的车辆的一小部分（不到三分之一）。适用范围更广的碳价格、汽油价格或行车里程税（例如，100美元/吨，1美元/加仑，0.25美元/英里）能带来更大的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">定价对汽车保有量的影响尚未得到广泛研究，并未在此明确建模。然而，文献中的一些证据表明出行价格可以影响汽车保有量。例如，一篇对Goodwin、Dargay和Hanly的研究的综述显示，（通货膨胀调整后的）实际燃油价格上涨10％将导致汽车保有量在短期内下降不到1％，在长期内下降2.5％。另一方面，如果实际收入增加10％，汽车保有量和燃油消耗将在一年内增加近4％，长期增加10％以上。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7.4 其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">定价通过减少VMT带来其他的好处，包括减少空气污染物排放和车祸带来的损失。它还鼓励转向主动交通模式，从而降低医疗保健成本。模型估算，每日10-15美元的拥堵费将使波士顿市内的步行和骑行运动增加近11％。预计2030年中心区域收费带来的安全、空气质量、健康的好处将超过1700万美元。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图32显示了由于中心区域的收费带来VMT变化的邻域。正如所料，中心区域社区受价格影响变化最大（减少5％至10％），而其他社区变化的更小（小于1％）。需要注意的是，该模型不考虑因中心区域费用而可能发生的出行目的地的重新分配。其他定价政策导致VMT的影响空间分布更加均匀。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia887tdefpFxeQwgT3MkLKC6Z5CcP1JZJ8Ad7jNeA7zMmdyWKWJNud924sLQ48OaefkPzOzuzUhU7A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png" class="" data-ratio="0.9959404600811907" data-w="739"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图32 基于拥堵费策略的社区VMT变化</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7.5 公平性影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">除了开车没有其他选项的低收入出行者将受到定价政策的最大负面影响，特别是在价格高到足以显著影响到出行行为的情况下。减轻定价影响的一种方法是将收入再投资于改善交通系统，特别是改善低收入社区的服务。定价收入也可以通过税收抵免或其他逐步应用的税收政策变更直接重新分配，以减少低收入家庭的税收负担。拥堵定价还可以通过减少高峰期拥堵并且让公共汽车或共享服务更快更可靠的途径，使低收入者从中受益。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.7.6 政策讨论 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">各种其他研究得出的结论是，定价是最有效的需求管理策略之一，并且还可以创造可以再投资于清洁交通改进的收入。然而，它也是最具政治挑战性的战略之一，政治上可行的按照每英里、每加仑燃油或每吨碳的收费可能只会影响需求1％到2％。城市可以实施的机制也是有限的，一些定价政策需要在州一级实施。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">影响车辆拥有成本的定价政策（例如，登记费或住宅停车费）未在本研究中明确建模。但是，这些成本可以与其他定价措施进行比较。例如，对于驾驶10000英里每年的家庭而言，0.01美元的行车里程税将导致每年100美元的总成本，相对车辆购买、维护和保险相比是微不足道的。因此，额外的登记费或停车费可能对汽车保有量影响不高，除非数额较高。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);background-color: rgba(255, 112, 121, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(55, 80, 114);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8 交通需求管理</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通需求管理（Travel Demand Management，TDM）项目的目的是规定或鼓励雇主、商业和住宅的物业为员工和居民提供出行选择。TDM项目对温室气体减排贡献有限，但是它的成本和其他资本密集的基础建设投资相比较低。同时，TDM项目也包括支助通勤出行方式，这样能够提高员工留任率。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管在波士顿的主要就业中心，已经推广了以雇主为中心的TDM项目，市政府还可以进一步扩大项目覆盖范围，并且在对新的商业和住宅建筑的许可和开发评估过程中加入TDM的要求。据估计这些措施有助于波士顿减少0.5%的VMT和温室气体。如果所有不少于50名员工的公司都能引入TDM项目，温室气体排放将能减少1.3%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8.1 政策概述</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">TDM项目往往通过与雇主和物业经理协作，将施行重点放在通勤者上。但与此同时，TDM也应用在住宅物业和社区。州内汽车共享条例要求大型商业和教育机构制定计划和目标，来减少员工和学生单人驾乘出行。MassRIDES（马萨诸塞州交通部启动的免费项目，致力于减少交通拥堵，改善空气质量和出行交通）通过协助雇主施行项目来达到这些目标的同时，也为通勤者提供资源。除此之外，马萨诸塞州内包括波士顿的48个城市，有15家交通管理协会（TMA, Transportation Management Associations）会与 375家企业、医疗设施、物业经理通力合作，为通勤者解决交通问题。现在在波士顿，大约有15万名员工（约占市内总劳动力的四分之一，主要分布在大公司和学校）由4家TMA负责。对于目前需要通过大型项目审查（通常总建筑面积超过50000平方英尺）的项目，波士顿政府要求考虑交通可达计划协议（TAPA，Transportation Access Plan Agreement），其中就包括TDM的方案施行。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在本分析里，假设波士顿市政府通过以下措施来扩大TDM的影响：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●  聘请额外的员工，对雇主和住宅物业经理开展外联，为雇员和居民供出行信息和奖励措施，在TMA活动中进行协助，扩大其影响范围；和</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">●  在开发许可/审查过程中的通过扩大TAPA的使用，将TDM情境和奖励措施纳入新的商业和居住建筑开发中。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8.2 建模方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">概化模型允许使用者在受TDM项目影响的工作场所，根据公司规模（小于50个员工、50-100个员工、大于100个员工）输入假设的员工增长比例，以此来测试项目的影响程度。结果显示TDM项目往往对大公司的影响更大，因为它能够从单点切入影响更多的人。模型中，假设每个月在公共交通上花费100美元的员工，会收到一张价值30美元的公交折扣卷（比如享受公共交通税前优惠等）。另外，模型将采用文献资料中公共交通乘客量相对于出行成本的弹性系数-0.24来预测通勤出行方式分担的变化。根据2017年MBTA出行调查数据，假设在新的公共交通使用者中，48%的出行者都有驾车经历。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据移动性管理策略对减少出行影响（TRIMMS, Trip Reduction Impacts of Mobility Management Strategies）中常见的TDM评估模型结果，假设单人驾驶出行比例将会降低3.5%（不包括对公共交通的积极影响）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在以住宅区为主的TDM政策中，假设新增人口中（2030年有57,00名的新增居民，到2050年则有139,000名），有70%的居民将会受政策影响（比如提供自行停车点，信息服务，公共交通优惠，鼓励共享出行和远程工作中心）。根据文献中TDM项目对减少出行的常见范围，假设政策影响下新的居民中单人驾驶出行将会降低5%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8.3 VMT与温室气体排放的影响 </strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据TDM项目在模型中的施行程度，结果显示项目约能降低0.5%行车里程和温室气体排放。一些更激进的要求（例如强制在所有不少于50名员工的公司施行TDM），则会在2050年减少1.3%的温室气体排放或是1.5万吨二氧化碳当量。工作场所的TDM主要影响来自波士顿城外的通勤者，这在某些情况下是长距离出行。但是通勤出行只占全体出行种类的25%不到，对总VMT的贡献也不到30%。可以通过在新的住宅开发中要求TDM来扩大其影响范围，但是难以覆盖现有居住区的众多居民。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8.4  其他影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">TDM可以通过提供更多通勤出行信息来支持其他出行方式（比如对于那些常常使用公共交通，自行车，步行等出行方式的出行者，他们在某些紧急或特殊情况下的交通费用将全部免费）和减少公共交通或其他方式出行成本，为通勤者和居民带来出行便利。许多私人企业和物业经理将为员工和租客提供通勤便利视为一种吸引和留住员工的一种福利。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8.5 公平性</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果TDM政策中包含了降低出行成本的策略（比如公共交通补贴），那么中低等收入的通勤者，特别是生活在像波士顿一样有着高昂拥堵成本和停车费的城市里，尤其会从中受益。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: left;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-30px, 0px, 0px);margin: 0px 0% -30px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(247, 84, 90);background-color: rgba(118, 178, 124, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-15px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 3px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(247, 84, 90);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">8.8.6 政策讨论</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管TDM对于总体出行和温室气体排放影响有限，它能以相对较低的成本来实现改变出行和改善交通。在新的开发项目中，通过在改动分区规定或/和在设计审查过程引入TDM相对容易。波士顿已经朝着这个方向采取一些措施，比如设置自行车停放规范，在一些大型项目中，将交通管理需求条件作为TAPA的一部分。要想进一步扩大TDM对公司和物业经理的覆盖范围，则需要额外的人员（或者资助现有TMA的员工）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 3px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 22px;height: 9px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" x="0px" y="0px" viewbox="0 0 175 64" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%"><g style="box-sizing: border-box;"><circle style="box-sizing: border-box;" cx="32" cy="32" r="32" fill="#ff8124"></circle><path d="M32,14c9.9,0,18,8.1,18,18s-8.1,18-18,18s-18-8.1-18-18S22.1,14,32,14 M32,0C14.3,0,0,14.3,0,32s14.3,32,32,32   s32-14.3,32-32S49.7,0,32,0L32,0z" fill="#000000" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></path></g><g style="box-sizing: border-box;"><circle style="box-sizing: border-box;" cx="143" cy="32" r="32" fill="#ff8124"></circle><path d="M143,14c9.9,0,18,8.1,18,18s-8.1,18-18,18s-18-8.1-18-18S133.1,14,143,14 M143,0c-17.7,0-32,14.3-32,32s14.3,32,32,32   s32-14.3,32-32S160.7,0,143,0L143,0z" fill="#000000" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></path></g><g style="box-sizing: border-box;"><circle style="box-sizing: border-box;" cx="254" cy="32" r="32" fill="#ff8124"></circle><path d="M254,14c9.9,0,18,8.1,18,18s-8.1,18-18,18s-18-8.1-18-18S244.1,14,254,14 M254,0c-17.7,0-32,14.3-32,32s14.3,32,32,32   s32-14.3,32-32S271.7,0,254,0L254,0z" fill="#000000" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></path></g></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 21px;letter-spacing: 3px;line-height: 1;padding: 0px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px 1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) -1px -1px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 1.4px 0px, rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 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1.5;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">免费下载<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: left;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 20%;vertical-align: top;border-top: 2px none rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(125, 146, 160);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(50px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="tn-yzk-fuid-text-53202-1534475045474" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(125, 146, 160);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">免费下载一览众山小提供的原文资料：</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">微信公众号 后台留言<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">或电邮 Daizongliu@qq.com </p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br 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style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们作为独立的专业志愿者团体，秉承专业理想与价值观，不依托任何机构，信守非盈利原则，帮助中国城市可持续发展。我们关注的领域包括但不限于：城市规划与发展战略、城市交通、公共交通与非机动化出行、活力街区、街道与城市设计、量化城市与大数据。至今我们已经拥有遍布全球近400名志愿者网络，并推送1800篇专业微文。作为微信公众号平台最大的线上专业志愿者团体，我们感谢您对我们的关注和支持，并欢迎加入我们！</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">-</strong></p></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="tn-yzk-fuid-text-71749-1534493157832" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(93, 91, 91);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 3px;padding: 0px 30px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: 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