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<section class="XiGuaChajian" style="display:none;" data-tools="西瓜插件，运行于电脑浏览器上的插件，可在公众号后台找优质文章素材，一键美化排版，检测文章违规，查看任意公众号粉丝阅读数" data-label="Power by：chajian.xiguaji.com"></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 10px;border-style: solid;border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘　樱</strong>　中山大学地理科学与规划学院</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">周春山</strong>　中山大学地理科学与规划学院教授</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">黄婉玲</strong>　中山大学地理科学与规划学院</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">朱倩琼</strong>　北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">原文刊载</strong>：<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">刘樱, 周春山, 黄婉玲, 等. 2018. 大都市区农村土地非农化空间特征及机理: 以广州市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 37(8): 1119-1130.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">版权说明</strong>：感谢作者授权发布，如有转载等事宜，请联系原作者。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(247, 242, 236);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-left: 6px dotted rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right: 6px dotted rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">摘要：</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;">　　随着国家对“三农”问题的关注以及新型城镇化、城乡统筹、新农村建设等一系列重大战略决策的提出，<strong>农村<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">聚落</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的内容再次成为地理学的研究热点。大都市区作为快速城镇化和生产生活要素集聚的重点区域，其农村聚落</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的用地变化快速且复杂，成为了农村聚落研究的重要内容。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文利用农村土地非农化指数，将2013 年广州市农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">聚落分为农耕型农村聚落、非农化起步型农村聚落、非农化发展型农村聚落、非农化主导型农村聚落、非农化型农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村聚落五种。结合GIS 空间分析，对广州市农村土地非农化空间结构进行了研究，得出以下结论：</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　①从市域角度，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村聚落土地非农化总体呈现出围绕大都市内核<strong>随距离增加而衰减</strong>，由外向内农村聚落土地非农化程度逐步升</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">高。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　②从各区层面，农村土地非农化程度受<strong>副中心城镇化发展水平</strong>影响显著，近郊区域呈现面状圈层化分布，远郊</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">则表现出沿道路的线状分布特点。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　③从局部尺度，<strong>重大基础设施</strong>对周边农村聚落的土地非农化发展有较大拉动作</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">用，导致高土地非农化农村聚落点状出现。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　随后采用多元线性回归、地理探测器等方法，确定村内路网密度、与主</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城距离、流动人口、村集体收入、村民人均收入为影响农村土地非农化水平的主要因素，并在此基础上初步分析各</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因子对大都市区农村聚落土地非农化的影响机制。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文对如何利用农村非农化进程促进城市发展、优化调控农村</span>土地利用和规划村庄发展提供一定的借鉴。</p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">关键词：</strong>农村土地非农化；空间特征；形成机理；农村聚落；大都市区；广州市</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);"><section style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgba(15, 105, 16, 0.48);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">１</p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 8px;border-top: 1px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">引言</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　改革开放以来计划经济向市场经济的转轨促<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">使传统农村聚落由自给自足的封闭系统向更为开</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">放的城乡关系转变，土地、资本及劳动力等生产要</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">素的流动性增强，推动农村聚落土地非农化快速发</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">展。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　这一进程正通过</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇用地扩张、产业结构演</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">变、人口流动、基础设施建设</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">等方式推动农村地区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生产要素分化和重组，深刻地改变了传统的农村用</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地空间结构。在这一趋势下，农村地区非农化发展</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">速度大幅增加，而非农化的空间表现就是</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">用地的演变和发展</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　全球金融危机后中国的城镇化正经历由生产<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">要素驱动向科技驱动、企业主导向以人为本、城乡</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">二元向城乡融合、高速增长向平稳增长转变的时</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">期，个人、科技的驱动作用越发重要，这一特征在大</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">都市区表现更为明显，其农村聚落非农化也呈现新</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的特征。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　对于<strong>外向型经济</strong>特征明显的广州市，在城</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">镇化发展新特点影响下，农村土地非农化的发展更</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">加复杂，城乡融合趋势更明显，研究其农村土地非</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农化空间特征和机制能为城镇化的健康发展、城乡</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地集约利用和二元体制的优化改善及农村转型</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发展等方面具有较强的理论和实践意义。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　农村聚落的研究大致始于19 世纪，经历定性描<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">述和基础理论构建时期、理论发展与计量和模式化</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究时期、空间分析与人本主义研究时期的发展。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　研究内容从早期的农村聚落形成发展、空间形态、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">布局与自然环境的相互关系(白吕纳, 1935; 林超,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1938; 金其铭, 1988; 许学强等, 1996)、农业区位论、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村聚落空间演变(沃尔特·克里斯塔勒, 1933; 费</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">孝通, 1998)发展到农村区位条件、类型和职能划</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分、城乡关系的相关研究(Pacione, 1984; 张小林,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1996)再发展到农村聚落的空间可视化分析模拟、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村聚落转型发展(Erickson et al, 2002; Antrop,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2004)、农村景观、生态环境和内部结构(乔家君等,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2006; 晨光等, 2015; 杨忍等, 2016)、农村规划(冯健</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">等, 2008)以及基于人本思想的人类决策对农村聚</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">落演变的影响、农村社区与农村社会问题的探讨</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(Nelson, 2001; Brown, 2005; 刘彦随等, 2009)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAkxbgDFDs0ico8OzoOHtM8an0XDk6E3kl9Ic0uib63BVEzT4ZndabxYqA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图源网络</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>农村要素的非农化和城镇化</strong>是现代化的重要标志，农村非农化的健康发展和新型城镇化进程相一致。城乡二元结构导致的农村衰退、资源浪费等矛盾日益突出，<strong>城乡一体化和统筹城乡发展</strong>成为了新型城镇化发展的新要求。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　在此要求下，农村要素非农化逐渐展成为了学者们关注热点，内容涉及农村人口要素的非农化(谢长青等, 2008; 龙冬平等，2014)、就业非农化(苑韶峰等, 2017)、产业非农化(杨忍等, 2015)以及农村非农化与城镇化相互关系的探讨(曹广忠等, 2016)。而农村土地要素作空间景观上最直接的体现，其非农化成为近几年的研究重点，目前学者们主要聚焦在农村土地非农化非农化的制度、政策优化(孟宏斌, 2017)、农地保护(杨志荣等, 2008)以及农村土地非农化的空间演变及影响因素(龙花楼, 2012; 李涛等, 2016)。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>地理探测器</strong>是探测空间分异性，揭示其背后驱动因子的一种新的统计学方法(王劲峰等, 2017)，该方法主要应用于医学(Wang et al, 2010)、自然科学(Lou et al, 2016)、社会科学、城市化动力机制(刘彦随等, 2012)、环境科学(Li et al, 2013)和农村问题等方面，其中农村问题集中在农村贫困化(刘彦随等,2017)、粮食问题(胡丹等, 2014)、聚落格局、空间分布和农村用地格局(杨忍等, 2011; 杨忍等, 2013)。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　农村土地非农化作为农村城镇化的空间体现，关于其空间演变的驱动机制和影响因子分析成为各学者关注的问题，成果不断涌现。大都市区作为城镇化快速发展的区域，其都市内核对农村聚落的非农化影响极为强烈，且不同区域之间也存在较大的差异。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　目前关于特定都市区、农村土地非农化与都市内核相互关系以及都市区内部不同区域差异的研究相对较少。而广州市农村腹地广阔，大都市内核对农村土地非农化的影响深远。本文采用地理探测器等方法分析了广州大都市区对农村腹地的辐射影响关系及其农村聚落土地非农化的空间特征，在<strong>城乡一体化的视角下</strong>构建了农村土地非农化的影响机制，并着重分析了不同影响因子的空间差异，以期丰富都市内核辐射下的农村聚落非农化发展研究、非农化与城市经济发展的交互关系研究，并对农村土地利用规划调控有一定的理论和实践意义。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.60625" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAAR0hSOHG75kLuEv3qjx6YjZ24VNOQMOS37NDiaoickN9ergGsT3OYIGg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图源网络<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);"><section style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgba(15, 105, 16, 0.48);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">２</p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 8px;border-top: 1px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究范围与研究方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);font-size: 14px;color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.1 研究范围界定</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　大都市区主要空间特点为：具有一个<strong>城镇化水<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">平高度发展的核心区</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，并具有</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大面积的农村腹地区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">域</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，非大都市区农村腹地往往偏小。2013 年广州市</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">域总面积为7434 km2，其中农村总面积为5650.73</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">km2，占比76.01%，腹地面积广大，且内核空间表征</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">突出，大都市特征显著。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文选取番禺区、花都区、南沙区以及远郊的<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增城市、从化市(广州市代管，2014 年撤市设区)和白</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">云区、黄埔区、萝岗区(2014 年与黄埔区合并)的行政</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村用地构成广州市大都市区的农村腹地；而海珠</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区、天河区、越秀区和荔湾区等完全城镇化区域和</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">白云、黄埔、萝岗等近郊高度城镇化区域用地构成</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大都市区的核心(图1)。剔除无效数据后样本共包</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">含全市1107 个行政村。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="674" data-ratio="1.2074468085106382" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAgp2RlrgeVQEsqHN8ibpRRusTDEezLibWdcnEaibKdx0GnSbVOBmpHPaAg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="940" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 674px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图1 研究区范围界定图<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);margin-bottom: -1px;font-size: 14px;color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-top-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.2 研究数据来源</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文利用广州市村域土地利用现状(2013 年)、<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">广州市村庄规划数据库(2013 年)和行政区划数据</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2013 年)，运用GIS 空间分析技术探讨农村用城镇</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化程度的空间分布、分异特征，结合广州市村庄规</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">划现状调查数据(2013 年)和新农村规划以及各县区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地方志(2013 年)、广州市统计年鉴(2013 年)等文件</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中涉及的社会经济数据，采用定量和定性研究相结</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">合的方法，探讨广州大都市区农村土地非农化程度</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发展影响因素及形成机制。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);font-size: 14px;color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.3 研究方法</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文主要采用的方法是GIS 空间分析、线性回<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">归以及地理探测器的相关方法。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　(1) 多元线性回归</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　多元线性回归是常用的解决地理问题的数学<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分析方法之一，可探讨自变量与因变量统计学关</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">系，从数量关系考虑各因素对农村土地非农化水平</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的影响。该模型中各因素的显著性水平可作为其是否是主要影响因素的判断标准。模型表达式为：</span></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="42" data-ratio="0.075" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarACJ3wxuQyrKUuUSiaeliag7hjiaSoKMLiaEGeQqjPSp86TV1wZUNPrwDycA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1000" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 42px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">式中：Y 是农村土地非农化水平；F1 、F2 、…、Fn 为<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">影响农村土地非农化水平的因素；a1 、a2 、…、an 为</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">各农村土地非农化水平影响因素的回归系数；a0 为</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">截距(常数)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　(2) 地理探测器</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　相关研究表明，地理探测器方法在探索地理现<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">象空间分异十分有效，因而选取地理探测器为研究</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">广州市农村土地非农化的空间分异及其形成机制</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的方法。影响因素的地理探测力值q 的表达式为：</span></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-croporisrc="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAIat7R0iafxcibC11mcg0cYUr1cCwqNGYH3UnZmbwcb7SibKjrhDEngUkg/?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="988.4571428571428" data-cropy1="8.857142857142856" data-cropy2="147.0285714285714" data-ratio="0.14068825910931174" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB789x6VgtQ7ibL3t7yU5Iqv1MWe3ibctFAXpZbeHSDhz8o4VEXd3PiaH0ZeOpTia9TzCCWtGpKMW9bky4Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="988" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 556px;height: 78px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">式中：qD, U 为农村土地非农化水平D、影响因素U<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的探测力值；n 为全市行政村的个数；m为次级分区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行政村的个数(自然断点法获得)；nD,i 为次级分区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">内行政村的个数；σ 2</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">U 为全市范围内农村土地非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化水平的方差；σ 2</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">UD,i</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为次级分区范围内农村土地非</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农化水平的方差；qD, U 取值区间为[0,1]，qD, U 值越</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大，U因素对农村土地非农化水平的影响程度越高。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);"><section style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgba(15, 105, 16, 0.48);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">３</p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 8px;border-top: 1px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">广州市农村土地非农化</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">的空间特征</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　土地非农化作为城镇化程度重要的衡量指标，<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">也是城镇化在现实中最直观的体现，本文采用农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地非农化水平指数进行量度和分析。农村土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化水平是指某一时间截面下，农村聚落中非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">建设用地占总用地的比例，是农村土地非农化程度</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的量度指标，具体算法为：</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　农村土地非农化水平=农村非农建设用地/农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村土地总量(水域除外)</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　农村非农建设用地包括居民点建设用地、区域<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通设施用地、区域公用设施用地、工业、商业用</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地、特殊用地、采矿用地等，此外总量还包括农业用</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地、未利用地、绿地等用地类型。对广州市1107 个</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行政村进行测算，采用自然断点法，结合村庄相关社</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">会、自然数据并结合实地调研对其进行分类(表1)；</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">通过GIS 软件对不同类型的农村聚落进行空间分</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">析，具体的空间布局如图2。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="675" data-ratio="1.2100409836065573" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarA8N3iaCCv8nDkyDSERugTgnvBXoeaWOPH9gPyAiaLzaFENSsHDGhibIdFQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="976" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 675px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图2 广州市农村土地非农化空间特征示意图</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">表1 广州农村聚落类型示意表<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="197" data-ratio="0.3539651837524178" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarA6Tw8brSGm4lqMyhe3uLjZEicCMdIMbd4mZz3bCGnIxNVdTUo26x6aiaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2068" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 198px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);font-size: 14px;color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.1 市域角度，农村聚落土地非农化水平总体上从</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">大都市内核向外随距离增加而降低</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　从整体上看，广州市农村聚落的非农化水平随<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其与大都市核心的距离增加而降低，基本上遵循由</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">外向内呈现</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农耕型农村聚落—非农化起步型农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">聚落—非农化发展型农村聚落—非农化主导型农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村聚落—非农化型农村聚落</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的规律。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　一方面，土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化率较高的农村聚落(非农化主导型、非农化</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">型)主要集中在大都市内核的<strong>近郊区域</strong>，如番禺(外</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来人口集聚地)，花都(工业副中心)，增城南部和西</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">部(靠近黄埔、萝岗旧工业区，承接主城工业外扩的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区域)以及白云区北部(紧邻主城区域)的农村土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化率也较高。这些区域作为传统的城市腹地，</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区位、资源优势强</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">促进区域农村聚落自发非农化的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">快速发展。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　另一方面，广州市工业、企业、流动人口</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">等主要集中在城市近郊的天河、白云、黄埔、番禺等</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">近郊区域(周春山等，2004；高军波等2010)，大量</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">产要素和流动人口</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">向近郊集聚，推动了一批以工</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业、商业、房屋租赁业务为主产业的农村聚落涌现，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这些外部力量提升了农村土地非农化水平。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　与之相对的，农村土地非农化程度低的区域主<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">要集中在远离大都市内核的增城东部和北部、从化</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区域，地形、外来人口以及基础设施的先天不足导</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">致农村聚落<strong>自发土地非农化的发展受到限制</strong>，工业</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化、城镇化发展滞后，区域仍以传统的农业为主要</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">支撑，经济发展水平有限；同时，远离大都市内核的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区位劣势、行政区划和规划的限制，区域受到大都</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">市辐射有限，外部动力匮乏同时受到城市规划和定</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">位的限制，区域整体土地非农化发育水平不足。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-croporisrc="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78XbttibaXwh9nRsf9rSf6orK10ZwYwZOtwJIuO6yNmQGcZjIZYlK4X7oJCDLs7HZia1tkibiaWrAowPQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1280" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="562.0071684587813" data-ratio="0.43828125" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78XbttibaXwh9nRsf9rSf6orrv7p8OV9jbqUPiag6HvK7yVK7ibSOx5zTUPiavbJvc64Da7cpOYDZkNoA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 245px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">增城（图源百度）</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);font-size: 14px;color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.2 各区角度，受副中心影响，近郊农村土地非农化<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">呈现圈层化特征，远郊则呈现线状特征</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　大都市内核扩张产生了诸多问题促使广州市<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">采取多中心的发展思路，城市副中心实力得到了提</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">升，带动周边农村聚落的发展。发展较早且城镇化</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">程度较高的花都、番禺副中心在</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">工业和外来人口的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">集聚效应</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下，农村聚落土地非农化水平较高，但由</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">于区域自身禀赋和副中心辐射能力有限，整体</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上以</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行政中心为核心向外土地非农化水平呈现衰减的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">面状圈层化分布</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(图3a)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　而增城、从化和南沙等副</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中心，发展时间较短，辐射拉动作用较弱，区域内农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村土地非农化的<strong>外部拉力来源仍是主城内核</strong>，以区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">域发展初期的<strong>道路经济</strong>为主，土地非农化较高的农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村聚落呈现沿主干道分布的现状特征(图3b)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　各个行政区受区位、行政区划、资源禀赋、基础<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">设施、自然条件等因素差异的影响，农村土地非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化的发展程度相差较大，发育程度较高的主要是番</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">禺区(50.03%)、花都区(34.01%)以及白云区(32.57%)</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">等近郊区，一方面由于自身区位优势和主城基础设</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">施的不断覆盖，形成了一批以二产、三产为主导产</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业的非农化主导型农村聚落和非农化型农村聚落。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　另一方面，作为较早纳入市辖区的几个区域，其承</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">担了<strong>主城区产业的外迁和流动人口的迁移</strong>，而生产</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">要素的外迁再一次推动了区域工业化、土地非农化</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的发展。由于产业集聚和人口集聚效应，较高土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化率的农村聚落分布呈面状组团分布特征。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　农村土地非农化率较低的区域主要为从化市<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(13.56%)、增城市(17.55%)，其区位先天劣势较大，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">加之地形等因素的限制，生产要素难以聚集，自发</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">工业化发展受限。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　此外，受行政区划的影响，其接</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">受大都市内核的辐射作用较弱。随着两区“撤市设</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区”的完成，该区域也承担了主城区工业的外扩和</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口的外迁，但目前尚处于工业化和土地非农化的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">初期，高土地非农化水平的农村聚落具有沿主要道</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">路分布的特点。从化较高土地非农化水平的行政</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村多集中在G45国道和S335省道两侧，增城则集中</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在广园快速路和广惠高速两侧。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="261" data-ratio="0.46683168316831686" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAxkfTDxyJtiadn1VnC7gRb2j45zegE1QvhdAfYItSiaoibaA8pia2Mt3cUw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2020" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 261px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图3 不同发育程度副中心周边农村聚落土地非农化空间结构示意图</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-right-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);border-left-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);font-size: 14px;color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.3 局部尺度，重大基础设施往往引发周边农村聚</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">落土地非农化程度快速提高</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　重大基础设施的建设往往能够带来大量的资<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">金、企业以及外来人口，造成区域内生产要素的快</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">速集聚，对于珠三角这一典型的工业驱动城镇化发</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">展的区域而言，<strong>生产要素的发展</strong>往往推动农村土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的非农化进程。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　因此<strong>点状基础设施建设</strong>引起部分</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村土地非农化远水平高于周边。例如南沙港附</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">近的行政村，多为土地非农化水平在50%以上的农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村聚落。且拥有南沙港的南沙区，与同处于中远郊</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的从化和增城相比，其农村聚落土地非农化水平高</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">出将近10 个百分点。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　番禺、花都等区的部分农村聚落，受白云机场、<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">火车南站和包含大量文教类基础设施的大学城建</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">设的影响，其产业业态由农业发展为商贸服务业，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大量农村土地转为非农用地，拉动了农村土地非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化的发展。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　此外，<strong>地铁</strong>这一基础设施的建设降低了</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">出行时间和出行成本，促进了近郊区域职住分离现</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">象的产生和发展，人口逐渐向近郊区域集聚，其产</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生的居住、消费等需求促使大量高土地非农化农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">聚落的出现。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5375" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarA7kBSMYjlVfpMM5mZ08TABuhbvDByKRTcOfErnBIHXxqu4xs2o8UIibQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">白云机场（图源网络）</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);"><section style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgba(15, 105, 16, 0.48);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">４</p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 8px;border-top: 1px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">广州市农村土地非农化</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">的影响因素</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文参考相关成果( 万晔等, 2002; 姚龙等,<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015)并结合广州市农村聚落的实际情况，选取最</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">能影响农村土地非农化水平特征的4 个大类的影响</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因子：区位可达性因子(村内路网密度、与主城区距</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">离)、人口因子(户籍人口数量、外来人口数量、机械</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增长率)、经济指标(村集体总收入、村民人均收入)、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地利用类型因子(工业用地、商业服务业用地、村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">庄建设用地、耕地、园地、林地、其他农用地)共14 个</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">影响因子(表2).</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">表2 广州市农村土地非农化影响因子<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="521" data-ratio="0.9337349397590361" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAv2v8XwqA3NuXa9pn2FicRzHEPUF1xAmNkaDRWTBJhbMZK1uSia2WbZkA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="996" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 521px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　利用多元线性回归模型对选取因子进行相关<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性和多重共线性检验，选取最佳的影响因子组合。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">回归分析发现，村内路网密度(X1)，与主城区距离</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(X2)，流动人口2012(X3)，村集体收入(X4)，村民人均</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">收入(X5)与农村土地非农化水平显著性较高，为显</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">著因子组合，相关系数R分别为0.064、0.319、0.127、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">0.169、0.221；而户籍人口数量、人口机械增长率、工</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业用地、商业服务业用地、居住用地、耕地、园地、林</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地、其他农用地9 个因子显著性较低。分析得出如</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下最优模型：</span></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="77" data-ratio="0.13831967213114754" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarADbvic3ia9GJkSSC3GbZGibDpcaD1zDVxuk7zVCPNtfXQdwbZAua8lK4iaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="976" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 77px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　拟合优度R 为0.90，调整后R2 为0.95，df 值为<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">10，模型的总体拟合较好，5 个因素能在较大程度上</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对农村土地非农化水平进行解释，同时也表明农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地非农化是由多因素共同作用的结果。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　回归标</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">准系数表明，上述5 个因素显著性水平指数均小于</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">0.05，表明这些因素对广州农村土地非农化水平差</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">异的影响较为显著，并且当5 个因素共同作用时，农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村土地非农化(Y)与村内路网密度(X1)、流动人口</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(X3)、村集体收入(X4)、村民人均收入(X5)呈显著正相</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关，而与主城区距离(X2)呈显著负相关。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　基于地理探测器，利用农村土地非农化分级与<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">各因素的自然断点法分类进行空间耦合匹配分析</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(图4)。进一步根据地理探测器模型，将村内路网密</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">度(X1)、与主城区距离(X2)、流动人口(X3)、村集体收</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">入(X4)、村民人均收入(X5)5 项指标分别与农村土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化水平进行空间探测分析。对因变量农村土</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地非农化水平(Y)和5 个主要因子进行分析，计算得</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">到各因子对农村土地非农化水平的决定力依次为</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">0.11、0.28、0.38、0.22、0.24。5 个因子对农村土地非</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农化的影响均较为显著。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　综合多元线性回归和地理探测器的相关分析<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">结果，最终确定</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村内路网密度(X1)、与主城距离(X2)、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">流动人口(X3)、村集体收入(X4)、村民人均收入(X5)</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为影响广州市农村土地非农化水平的主导因子。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="415" data-ratio="0.7421875" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAL7mUHOA2icyHH6VibmJ8OoicPkVTqm7nfb0S47Zj5JPS7K7oHvN2AgLpA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 414px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图4 广州农村土地非农化水平与要素匹配空间分布</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);"><section style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgba(15, 105, 16, 0.48);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">５</p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 8px;border-top: 1px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">广州市农村土地非农化</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">空间特征形</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成机理</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　广州市农村土地非农化空间特征的形成是一<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">个复杂的过程，其中主导因子村内路网密度(X1)、与</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">主城距离(X2)作为交通通达性和联系紧密度重要的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因子，造成了农村聚落区位和基础设施的差异。流</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">动人口(X3)因子作为生产生活的主体，其劳动力的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">经济属性和自身的生活属性主导了农村土地非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化空间特征的形成。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　而作为农村聚落经济发展水</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">平和个人经济发展程度指标的村集体收入(X4)、村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">民人均收入(X5)直接驱动了村庄第二产业和商贸服</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">务业的发展，其他诸如城市规划、基础设施、管理水</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">平和重大节事则一定程度上对这一空间特征起到</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">了调节作用，具体的形成机理如图5。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="333" data-ratio="0.595631067961165" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAXOXBWJTPEaakSlyysE94fDDibos9yOpefpia3fSgmBibLXReQYWgWLzvg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2060" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 332px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图5 大都市区农村聚落土地非农化影响机理示意图</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>(1) 村内路网密度。</strong>作为农村<strong>聚落可达性和对<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">内对外交通连接性</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的主要指标，是影响农村产业形</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成和发展的重要因素。通常情况下，交通便利、可</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">达性好的区域，因为物流、人流以及信息流较快，有</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">利于生产要素的集聚。对于珠三角而言，工业化与</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化表现出<strong>高度的相关性</strong>，企业成为过去20 年驱</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">动珠三角城镇化、非农化的主体，路网密度高的农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村聚落，因自身工业化的发展和外来企业的进驻，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地非农化水平较高。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　广州市路网密度较大的区域主要集中在白云、<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">花都和番禺部分工业集中区域和城市近郊区域，其</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村土地非农化较其他区域高。而增城、从化的路</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">网密度较低，以与主城区的主干道交通为主，因此</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">构成了高非农化农村聚落的线状分布特点，2 个区</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">域外围和花都北侧的部分农村聚落，受地形等多方</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">面因素制约，路网密度极低，形成了农村聚落土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化最低的洼地。从行政区来看，</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">路网密度随中</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">心向外衰减</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，故形成</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村土地非农化水平也围绕行</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">政中心向外呈衰减</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的状况。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　由于城市轨道交通的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发展以及区域功能定位的转变，一些农村土地非农</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化推动力逐步由工业向服务业过渡，路网密度的影</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">响减弱，表现最明显的即为番禺区，受功能定位、综</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">合交通的完善以及区域产业升级更新的影响，路网</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">密度的影响力较低(图6a)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="451" data-ratio="0.8078125" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAa2R3qylZBUvQfXTtaOxrgomLic5ObBsJMJsv3j4ZlEO0ib8EkgYWc7bQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 451px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图6 广州市农村土地非农化主导因素分级示意图</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>(2) 与主城区距离。</strong>是农村聚落区位优劣势的<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">重要指示因素，也是农村聚落受主城核心经济与公</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">共服务辐射强弱的重要影响因素。相关研究表明，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">广州的城镇化仍然是近郊城镇化为主(周春山等,</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015)，外来人口、企业以及基础设施的分布多集中</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在近郊区域，近郊农村聚落更容易得到产业发展的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">机会。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　此外，随着主城产业外迁，</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">近郊生产要素集</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中区域</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">往往成为外迁的首选，促进工业化和农村土</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地非农化进程的加快。中远郊区域由于距离原因，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生产要素、基础设施不够完备，难以吸引外迁企业，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">导致农村土地非农化进程发展缓慢。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　由于大都市区农村腹地辽阔，远郊农村聚落容<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">易受到其他辐射中心的影响。一方面，</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">多中心的发</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">展战略促进副中心的形成与发展</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，部分村庄的辐射</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中心由主城内核逐步转向为副中心内核，副中心周</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">边的区域，农村土地非农化水平得到了一定提高，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其提高程度和副中心的发育程度呈正比。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　另一方</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">面，受区域一体化和产业集群化发展的影响，部分</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">远郊农村聚落受到<strong>临近城市内核的辐射和影响，</strong>工</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业化得到了一定的发展，土地非农化水平得到了提</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">升。例如花都与佛山相邻以及增城与东莞相邻的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村聚落，土地非农化程度明显较高(图6b)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>(3) 流动人口。</strong>该因素作为农村聚落重要的资<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">源要素和生产指标，对广州农村土地非农化水平的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">决定力最强。从人的经济属性角度看，对于以</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">劳动</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">密集型企业</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为主的珠三角地区来说流动人口作为</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">重要的生产要素，能极大地推动产业的形成和发</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">展，从而影响土地非农化水平。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　从人的社会生活属</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性来看，外来人口集聚能产生大量的居住、饮食、购</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">物和休闲需求，可促生区域商业、房屋租赁等相关</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">服务业的发展，拉动农村土地非农化的发展。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　广州的外来人口主要集中在番禺、花都和增城<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">近郊区，这些区域原有的乡镇工业较多，大量就业机</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">会促进外来人口进入，而围绕着工业村庄，形成大量</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的服务型村庄，促进了高土地非农化农村聚落面状</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">布局的特点。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　而从化、增城的外来人口相对较少，除</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行政中心周边有少量的外来人口集聚形成的高土地</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非农化水平农村聚落外，整体农村土地非农化水平</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">较低。另外，<strong>重大基础设施</strong>往往能促进外来人口的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">集聚，从而拉动农村土地非农化水平的提升，例如南</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">沙港附近、包含大量文教基础设施的大学城周边等</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区域，高土地非农化农村聚落呈点状分布(图6c)。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.664" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarA3RAXAsFlLVbQIAYQKiaAcYoiaHQyqTbNUnrkUBqibu052McJmphcdbP8w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">图源网络<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>(4) 村集体收入。</strong>该因素作为农村聚落经济水平重要的指标，是村庄发展程度和村政府服务能力的体现。一般状况下，<strong>村集体的收入与村政府服务能力和村庄建设能力成正比</strong>，收入越高，基础设施的完善、建设力度越高。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　高集体收入的行政村的主导业态多以<strong>工业和服务业为主</strong>，多数拥有自己的村办企业，其非农化水平也较高。而村集体的财政收入越低，则意味着村政府相应的建设能力和服务能力受资金制约较大，多以传统的农耕产业为主，产业难以带动土地非农化的发展。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　广州市村集体收入较高的行政村多集中在番禺区、白云区，低水平的多集中在花都、南沙的农村聚落。指标较高的行政村多分布在地铁出口附近，主要产业除工业之外，服务业和例如动漫在内的新兴产业也逐步发展。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　而增城和从化的大部分村庄，由于先天农村工业化发展不足，加之承接主城产业外迁尚处于初级阶段，工业化水平不高，非农化程度也相应较低(图6d)。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　<strong>(5) 村民人均收入。</strong>村民收入也是农村聚落经济水平一个典型指标，对应着村庄居民的购买力、生活需求和村庄经济的发展状况。村民人均收入较高的农村聚落，居民主要从事的行业以第二第三产业为主，若本村有相应产业，则对应村集体收入较高的状况；另一种情况则是周边城镇或农村有较好的就业机会，村民外出打工提升自身的收入水平，促进村民对居住条件、生活条件、通勤条件改善的愿望，间接推动了村庄基础设施、居住用地的建设和增加，从而引发土地非农化水平的提高。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　广州市村民人均收入较高的农村聚落集中分布在番禺、南沙和花都地区，且南部各区高于北部。这些区域都有二、三产支撑，大部分村民从事行业也以二、三产为主，整体城镇化水平较高。而从化和增城等远郊区域就业机会较少，虽有一定量的农村居民外出从事二、三产业工作，但大部分地区仍以第一产业为主，农村土地非农化水平有限(图6e)。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　从上述各个区域对比来看，农村聚落土地非农化发展初期，<strong>区位因素(与主城距离)和交通要素(路网密度)</strong>作为主要因素，对农村土地非农化起到支配作用，道路经济成为土地非农化的催化剂；而后随着经济和技术的发展以及城市结构的转变，区位和交通要素重要性下降，作为生产要素的<strong>外来人口</strong>等生产要素成为农村土地非农化的重要推手，促进农村聚落经济水平和土地非农化水平提升。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　而为了推动产业和经济发展，部分行政村利用集体收入完善基础设施、办公设施等，土地非农化水平再次升高。而随着村民收入的增加和外来人口的集聚，生活需求逐步取代生产需求，商业、房屋租赁等服务业推动村庄业态升级和土地非农化程度的提高。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　农村土地非农化水平的空间格局是一个复杂过程产生的结果，其受多种要素共同作用产生(表3)。除了可以定量的因素之外，一些其他要素也对其有较大影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　①城市规划对于区域功能的定位容易引发企业和流动人口等的流动，从而影响土地非农化水平。如从化被划定为水源保护区和生态功能保护区之后，原有的石粉、采矿行业迁出，农村土地非农化发展更加缓慢。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　②行政区划的调整导致先划入的番禺、花都副中心的发展程度远高于从化、增城区域，土地非农化水平差异明显。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　③重大节事活动例如亚运会等，大量场馆、分会场建设的用地需求极大地推动了副中心和周边农村聚落的土地非农化进程。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　④城乡管理以及企业管理对于产业、人口的布局发展均有一定影响，对农村地区的土地非农化也会产生一定的作用。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">表3 不同行政区各因素影响强弱分析表</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="558" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="152" data-ratio="0.27215799614643543" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAVkuCYKVh2ItTH89ErqLOKZicKeSxbb69oOMbrsIlH5BDC4OyHAh5fbw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="2076" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 152px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);"><section style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgba(15, 105, 16, 0.48);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">６</p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 8px;border-top: 1px solid rgba(14, 105, 16, 0.48);padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结论与讨论</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　大都市区作为城市发展的高级阶段，集聚了大<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">量的人口、企业和资金等要素，城镇化过程强劲，用</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地需求旺盛。中心城区强大的经济辐射和土地需</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">求促使周边农村聚落产业提升及用地性质发生变</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化，从而带动周边农村聚落土地非农化的发展。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　(1) 整体上，广州市农村土地非农化水平及农<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">村聚落随着与大都市内核的距离增加而逐步衰减，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">而各副中心随发展程度不同，</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农村非农化空间分布</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由线状向面状过渡</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。广州市城镇化目前主要还是</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以近郊城镇化为主，远郊区域的工业化、城镇化进</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">程受限。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　从各区来看，大体上农村土地非农化水平</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基本<strong>围绕各区副中心内核向外随距离衰减</strong>，但</span><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">显著</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性与副中心的发育程度呈正相关</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。番禺、花都副中</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">心发育程度较高，农村土地非农化水平围绕副中心</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">呈面状圈层化分布；而从化、增城则由于发育时间</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">较短，副中心辐射能力较弱，土地非农化程度较高</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的农村聚落集聚在主干道两侧，呈线状集中分布。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">随着副中心的继续发展和基础设施、公共服务的逐</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">步覆盖，区域间差异将为逐步缩小，线状分布的空</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间特点将逐步演化为面状圈层化分布。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="" data-croporisrc="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78XbttibaXwh9nRsf9rSf6orxfumHv9W4f6axianPjiaaGNRP2okSMVkBELsfdUOIiasIPvkkcgS3H7hg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="1200" data-cropy1="0" data-cropy2="705.3763440860215" data-ratio="0.5875" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/yXntXceyB78XbttibaXwh9nRsf9rSf6or1jUicLe6QOh3kKFZm5GwCpiaZRQESDUlO4nQ3PqbSia7qaV1V8MunpCicg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1200" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 558px;height: 328px;"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">花都（图源汇图网）</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　(2) 大都市区农村土地非农化的影响机制复杂和多元化，影响要素随着非农化发展程度呈现<strong>由自然要素向生产要素进而向生活要素转变</strong>的趋势。除交通、经济、人口等方面可以量化的指标外，城市发展思路、城市规划管理、跨城市之间的区域合作和分工，以及对环境、社会平等、生活质量等方面的多元关注都对农村土地非农化产生不同的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　随着农村聚落非农化的发展，主导因素则呈现由自然、区位因素向生产、产业要素过渡，最终向生活、个人要素发展的状况。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　(3) 在大都市区快速城镇化和工业化的影响下，农村土地非农化发展是必然的趋势。如何充分<strong>利用非农化的过程促进城市经济的发展</strong>成为重点考虑的问题之一。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　科学、合理的新农村规划显得十分必要。在高速发展的农村城镇化背景下，如何构建一个真正留得住文化，而又兼顾农村居民发展诉求的新农村系统也是十分重要的研究课题。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;height: 240px;vertical-align: top;overflow-y: auto;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;"><section style="overflow-x: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 46%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(18, 39, 54);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 8%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 8px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAJhexG2BK2s4lDlf94IbxMGyedFsSxC1LtiagsdJn04rF9jDHbsayWibQ/640?wx_fmt=gif");background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.345" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/yXntXceyB78yo07UP1KuVAibUMygEPiarAJhexG2BK2s4lDlf94IbxMGyedFsSxC1LtiagsdJn04rF9jDHbsayWibQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="200" style="vertical-align: middle;opacity: 0;width: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 46%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(18, 39, 54);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">参考文献：</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">白吕纳. 1935. 人地学原理[M]. 任美愕, 李旭旦, 译. 南京: 钟山书局. [Brunhes J. 1935. La geographie humaine[M].Ren M E, Li X D, Trans. Nanjing, China: Zhongshan Press.]</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">曹广忠, 马嘉文. 2016. 中国城镇化与非农化的空间分异、相互关系和形成机制[J]. 地理研究, 35(12): 2249- 2260.[Cao G Z, Ma J W. 2016. Spatial pattern, mutual relationship and driving forces of China's urbanization and non-agriculturalization[J]. Geographical Research, 35(12): 2249-2260.]</p><p style="box-sizing: 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