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<section powered-by="gulangu" style="font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 10px;display: inline-block;width: 556px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-shadow: rgb(204, 204, 204) 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">       本文为中国城市规划设计研究院上海分院规划研究室马璇主任在“2018年度CAUPD业务交流会”上做的报告，感谢作者悉心整理&授权发布。感谢会议主办单位总工室等部门提供的资源支持！</section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <section style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 38px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: auto;margin-bottom: 0.2em;margin-left: auto;box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;box-shadow: rgb(102, 102, 102) 3.53553px 3.53553px 5px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/qAEVTTssxDckGACq7QJEvakPkpz6qXrSiawktbVRYsN2wvpLhjiaXRkXo3pcAzDFXR14D61NkictYG7ATgE0GIDjg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");background-size: 267.2%;background-position: 55.7056% 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section style="height: 114px;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6638889" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/qAEVTTssxDckGACq7QJEvakPkpz6qXrSiawktbVRYsN2wvpLhjiaXRkXo3pcAzDFXR14D61NkictYG7ATgE0GIDjg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="height: 75.6719px;width: 114px;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" /></section></section></section></section></section>作者∣马 璇中国城市规划设计研究院上海分院规划研究室 <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">作为我国经济最发达的区域和全球重要的城市连绵地区，长三角发展一直备受关注，尤其是自去年11月习大大在上海进博会期间提出“支持长三角一体化上升为国家战略”，标志着长三角发展进入了新的阶段。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">长三角是区域经济理论的重要实践区，相关研究名家荟萃。早在上世纪90年代起，以吴良镛、姚世谋、崔功豪、宁越敏等为代表的学者们，就已经开始了对长三角空间、体系、结构等的多方面研究，留下了累累硕果。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">结合知网数据，分析长三角相关研究的关键词的演变，可以发现2010年之前研究重心主要在于空间形态与城镇体系，而2010年后开始关注流通空间、功能分工与关联网络。纵观区域经济理论演变历程，从早期的中心地理论到增长极理论，再到近年来流通空间、多中心网络等方向，可以看到，长三角见证了区域经济理论的演进方向，也为区域经济理论的完善与优化提供了丰富的素材，因此对其持续的跟踪研究具体重要的理论与现实价值。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5831533477321814" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKso8tBjbBknpF7YCPwJ4Kr9v83AlrCIuucQ1sc9l5H1Aw03DGTjwSFyA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="463" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6968911917098446" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsHg8FzYJOicLJ3mHXiapm6qqaaaxGXgh2blLbibNaJ0QQMnCmngJRrj01g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="386" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">研究视角：长三角人口流动与经济关联网络及演变。 本文是住建部《长三角巨型城市区域研究》重大课题的部分研究成果，目的是在新时期流通空间理论指导下，以人与经济流动两大维度为视角，对长三角城市网络演变、特征和趋势进行观察与再认识。考虑到空间的完整性及数据的可比性，研究范围为三省一市。<p style="font-size: 16px;text-align: start;white-space: normal;margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 20px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;padding: 10px;border-left-width: 7px;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);word-wrap: break-word !important;">1、长三角人口流动及演变观察</section></section></article><article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 13px;max-width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);line-height: 20px;font-size: 16px;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);border-left-style: solid;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.1 整体观察：从“远走他乡”到“近域流动”</article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（1）长三角是全国流动人口总量最高的地区。从全国的横向比较来看（基于历年人口普查和抽样数据），长三角2015年常住人口约2.2亿，流动人口5133万人（包括跨省、跨县和县内的常住与户籍分离人口），占常住人口总量的1/4，是全国流动人口总量最高的地区。相比之下，京津冀流动人口总量约2300万人，珠三角约3300万人，长三角接近两者之和。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（2）长三角的流动人口由四类人群构成。5133万的流动人口包括四类，第一类是从长三角以外的省份流入长三角的，近2000万人；第二类是在三省一市之间跨省流动的，约1000万人；第三类是在三省一市各省内跨县流动的，1000万左右；第四类就是县内流动的， 1000万左右。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.48417350527549824" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsHsCvMnJjSfbzmibJCcOhlGXAHXSRjOKH4K8Gn0YCFehQ6CCPRLRY9Ig/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="853" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（3）四类人群的演变：从“远走他乡”到“近域流动”。比较这四类人口从2000-2015年15年间的变化，可以看到特征鲜明的两个阶段。在2000-2010间，长三角流动人口总量翻番式增长，从2100万增长到4800万，年均增长近300万人。其中长三角外流入人口从500万增长到1800万，增长三倍； 长三角区内跨省流动从400万增加到1000万；省内人口也快速增长。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 总体上，大规模、长距离的“远走他乡”是这十年人口流动的最核心的特征。而到了2010年后，这种趋势明显放缓，流动人口总量从2010年的4800万增加到2015年5100万，年均增长60万人。从分类结构来看，这五年跨区、跨省流动略有增长，但整体速度 趋缓；省内流动人口总量减少，减少近200万人；与此相对的是县内流动人口快速增长，从700万增长到1000万。人口流动从长距离的跨区域流动转向近域流动，区域内流动和渐进式的离乡进城成为这五年的主要增长方向。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.3244186046511628" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsOGGGpiadt2gswZ0KXHth6xZSasDnUl1b9ayRxpHpD7edB4EL1pTYDbw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="860" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 全国的“跨域流动”VS长三角的“近域流动”。长三角流动人口总量增长趋缓的态势其实与全国流动人口不断减少的大背景息息相关，全国从2014年开始流动人口总量就逐年减少（从2014年2.53亿减少到2017年的2.44亿）。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 但比较流动人口内部结构变化，长三角与全国则呈截然不同的态势：全国来看，跨省流动和省内跨县流动快速增长，分别增加了约1000万和2000万人，但县内流动人口是减少的，比2010年减少了800 多万；但反观长三角，跨省仅有少量增长，而省内流动人口减少200万人（江浙两省均为此态势），县内流动人口则增长最为明显。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 可见在全国层面，虽然近年流动总量有所减少，但地区间的不平衡导致以跨省及省内为主的“跨域流动”仍然占主导；但在长三角内部，总体经济发展水平较高，以江苏浙江为代表的省份跨县市间的地区差异较小，这就从一定程度上减少了省内城市间的相互流动的态势，反而城乡间县域的“近域流动”反倒成为近年来流动人口增长的主要方向。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6806083650190115" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsgcORzaBRp8hXfwrGB7ibFafmIZSxicvjcatg3KmfURqY7hI42icXucHuA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="526" style="" /> <article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 13px;max-width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);line-height: 20px;font-size: 16px;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);border-left-style: solid;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.2 省际观察：全国的浙江、长三角的江苏、铁杆的安徽</article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（1）三省一市的差异化性格与气质。分省来看，除上海外，长三角各省的流动人口存在明显差异化的气质，表现为：全国的浙江，浙江全省流动人口总量约1760万人，其中来自长三角外就有900多万，超过了一半，可见浙江省吸引了来自全国各地的外来人口，是名副其实的“全国的浙江”；长三角的江苏，江苏全省流动人口1660万人，与浙江相当，但其中来自长三角内的流动人口占近70%，是区域化特征占主导的省份；安徽的安徽，安徽全省的流动人口仅767万，且超过80%都是来自省内。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（2）安徽：“铁杆粉”的省内“截流”。尽管安徽的流入人口主要来自省内，但仍然难以掩盖其长三角“铁杆粉”的身份。为什么说是“铁杆粉”呢？因为从2010年后，安徽一直是全国排名第1的人口流出大省，出省人口超过1000万。但它去向总体非常“专一”，有750万左右、约四分之三的人口毫不犹豫的流向江浙沪。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 规模大且稳定的安徽外流人口构成了长三角内人口区域化的核心力量。但也应当看到，2010年后，安徽省流动人口也开始悄悄出现一些新的趋势，表现为省内核心城市的“截流”：2010后，以合肥、芜湖为代表的省内核心城市成为吸引省内流动人口的重要地区（2015年合肥吸引省内流动人口126万人，芜湖26万人），这与上文所说的长三角整体上省内流动人口减少态势截然相反。 2010-2015年间，长三角41个地级市仅有7个城市省内流动人口在增长，除上海外，均为安徽城市。<img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.38100686498855835" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsaLSOXMTXearHIiaCxYApRtusm3oibBoEbGvibJPNrkSAEfJXaSOWBLLkA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="874" style="" /><article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 13px;max-width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);line-height: 20px;font-size: 16px;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);border-left-style: solid;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">1.3 都市圈观察：你争我赶，几家欢喜几家忧</article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 如果说省际之间是各有性格的话，那么细化到都市圈层面，则是“几家欢喜几家忧。从演变趋势来看，长三角整体流动人口从2010年前的“核心集聚”转向“外围扩散”。2000-2010年之间，流动人口集中在以沪宁、沪杭为核心的z字形核心地区；但到2010年之后，人口的集聚不再仅仅集中在核心城市，而是向外围的城市与都市圈扩散。在这些 “你争我赶”的发展中，各都市圈的发展也呈现不一样的态势。 <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5673076923076923" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsXVaD0HknQQicAnRZpzwvDLctW2spYJUj7vldLmCR1EpENicMjnTVf5Vw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="728" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 结合2010后的流动人口变化，可以将这些都市圈分为三类。第一类是整体下降的，如温台地区，还有南京周边的镇江和扬州，流动人口规模明显下降；第二类是整体上升的，杭州周边及金华，以及新兴的合芜蚌地区；另外还有一类都市圈是内部出现分异的，例如上海都市圈周边，邻沪的苏州嘉兴流动人口增长，而南通、宁波等下降；包括苏锡常都市圈中，苏州在涨，而无锡常州在降。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.41422594142259417" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsqicBTicEtIKGRPyHiaOZY1FQruISAqbibWgpNYLFibH6XObgkqSXIXicrCmQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="717" style="" /><article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 20px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;padding: 10px;border-left-width: 7px;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);word-wrap: break-word !important;">2、长三角经济关联与价值区段观察</section></section></article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 除人口外，长三角的经济关联网络也体现出明显的网络化特征：<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 13px;max-width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);line-height: 20px;font-size: 16px;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);border-left-style: solid;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.1 整体观察：全国内部经济关联度最高的区域</article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 从横向比较来看，以2015年工商总局的企业总部分支联系数据为基础，可以看到长三角相关的企业总部-分支联系总量达80余万条，是珠三角的两倍。并且其中长三角内部关联占了近2/3。而京津冀尽管总量与长三角相当，但更多体现为首都对全国的联系。可见，长三角是全国内部经济关联网络最发达的地区。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5959595959595959" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKs3Zn8lzzDFtGQ1u1MaF6ywnNs9q89eIHl7fZe8vzFLAPAyAI4EgKKMQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="792" style="" /><article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 13px;max-width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);line-height: 20px;font-size: 16px;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);border-left-style: solid;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.2 关联网络：新经济时代的城市逆袭</article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 回到长三角内部，可以看到，它的关联网络呈现典型的网络状格局，但不同行业呈现不同特征。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（1）传统的产业关联：Z字核心区集聚，沪苏总体强于沪浙。长三角的全产业关联，学界已经有丰富的研究，上海毫元疑问居首，其后是南京、杭州、苏州、合肥、宁波、无锡、南通、常州等核心廊道上的主要城市。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 在全产业的基础上，将制造业与生产性服务业进行分开分析，可以看到，制造业呈现强核联系，第一层级的上海是苏州的2-3倍，各城市与上海的联系成为主要联系，功能网络呈现在区域内组织的特征；而生产型服务业方面除上海外，省会城市对区域的组织作用较为明显 ，宁、杭、合是第二层级，总关联度相当于上海70%。但总体上，这些传统门类的划分的产业，基本以在z字形的核心区积聚态势为主，在企业关联度上，江苏的产业联系总体略强于浙江，城市之间等级化的关联较为明显。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="556" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="294" data-ratio="0.375750300120048" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsU9f13zjUd88gzoXQMTJLl1sYLM6UO9ibvBjC0mRYrZM05aFQc7Eichiaw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="833" style="width: 556px;height: 209px;" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（2）新经济产业关联：沪杭核心区突显。知识经济时代，以互联网、高新技术、信息科技、数字经济等为代表的新经济作用逐步突显，且在空间分布上也逐步打破传统的等级化特征，因此对新经济关联网络的研究十分必要。但当前产业分类中，对新经济的分类并没有普遍的共识，因此课题组在参考了产业经济学的相关研究，并结合国内外城市对于创新经济的分类，结合国民经济行业细分，提出了包括高技术制造，高技术服务、文化、健康、信息，五类，33小类的新经济行业。以些基础进行分析，可以看到与全产业很不一样的“惊喜”。  <img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5281329923273658" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsDI5TkdLrwiadOnKE8JibMCMbaV4Q1qPwBNFS68LtksibvZK3bSX3I12hw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="782" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 不同于其它行业上海的一城独大，新经济关联的“头把交椅”由杭州摘的，其次是上海，第三位则是合肥，然后才是南京、宁波等。总体上，浙江省的关联度总体强于江苏，安徽省的边缘地位也有所提升。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 新经济时代的城市逆袭。除了杭州合肥之外，分门类的新经济行业，也看到了一部分其它城市的逆袭。除去高技术服务业里，杭州、合肥排名前2位之外；信息产业里的南通和徐州地位上升；文化服务业中金华、绍兴跻身前10；健康类的合肥、蚌埠、金华等崭露头角。可以说新经济打破了传统等级化的城市关联，也给不同城市带来了更多的发展机会。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.48559670781893005" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsef4KnDdNtlOrYBrcicHCdd3ibMlwmh2Z4AibtN1y3I0nRYpWw84HqHaPw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="729" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">（3）城市关联网络的三种情景。从变化趋势上看，生产型服务业和新经济行业在企业中的比重整体呈上升态势，制造业则有所下降。基于此，课题组也结合这三类行业演变特征做了情景模拟：<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 情景1是制造业主导，等级化突出，核心强，重心城市都与核心城市联系为主，而联系较弱的城市就日益边缘。 <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 情景2是生产型服务业主导，呈现板块化分工；<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 情景3是新经济主导，这种模式下，城市之间网络化联系增强，但是分工与枢纽再积聚作用也开始显现，以功能为主导的核心都市圈作用将日益凸显。因此，不同的经济和产业模式主导下，区域空间结构也有呈现不一样的特征。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4634794156706507" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsMzNPAqiaFokXIWhVeesBArrDOzEXiatGpjfnicNiaaFicia8icL6fsO6fTtMA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="753" style="" /><article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p class="yead_bdlc yead_color" style="margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 13px;max-width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(102, 102, 102);line-height: 20px;font-size: 16px;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);border-left-style: solid;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2.3 价值区段：从“平行竞争”转向“垂直分工”</article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 新经济时代带来了深度分工，而深度分工最核心的表现就是城市从平行竞争转向价值链的垂直分工。因此从纵向的演变视角再来观察长三角，长三角内城市价值分工的演变脉络可窥一斑。在2000年，各类的城市比较优势还并不凸显，优势区段相互交叉，表现为归为某一价值区段的城市，在自身优势的价值区段中的优势并不突显；而到了2015年，垂直分工日益清晰，每一类城市在自身核心优势的价值区段中的比较优势凸显。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4558645707376058" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsDXMb3HQo37VeDDBQiaoOcOcr8tXIeKBk8OmUBeGw6hsZ4FticXpggicpQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="827" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 14.2px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "Times New Roman"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);min-height: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">  <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 空间上的表现也从2000年左右的多心多点，变为2015年后围绕宁合的先进制造板块和围绕沪杭的服务经济板块两大差异化分工集群。可见，长三角的功能网络与价值区段是一个分工不断深化，联系不断强化的网络状关联。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4928400954653938" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsHj2KgouiaPffAU23xkxibicT0LcFb0BQtDw7CfyaoxAz2hA7mUH3IyLoA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="838" style="" /><article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 20px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;padding: 10px;border-left-width: 7px;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);word-wrap: break-word !important;">3、人口与经济关联下的城市</section></section></article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 人与经济共同作用，再结合时间的演变，就可以看到城市之间的“兴衰沉浮”。综合2010年后人口流动与经济网络的观察，我们尝试着把三省一市的41城市分为四类，一种是人口与经济双增的，以合肥、杭州为代表； 一种人口经济双减的，以温州为代表；一种是人口增经济比重减的，如苏州、金华等；还有一种是经济长人口降的，如苏中苏北的部分城市。基于此，可以看到长三角区域江湖里的“风水轮流转”，也可以看到一些令人印象深刻的城市。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <img class="rich_pages" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.4796747967479675" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeKGk5DtiahMv35XCTMHbnKsgSrcBuvpgxCP6jOG8pDjLHibO10jCO5fQAUqwTRiahUGLHibBznCWyN3Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="861" style="" /><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 曾经辉煌的温州。上世纪80、90年代的温州模式的兴起让温州成为长三角炙手可热的明星城市。2000年温州的区域外来人口达84万，当时是比肩上海（外来人口100万）的第2位城市。但是2010-2015的变化看，区外外来人口减少40万，成为是长三角减少最多的城市，价值区段也没有体现向新经济与技术型的深化，区域经济占比明显下降。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> “锦鲤城市” 苏州。得天得厚的区位优势，让苏州成为在近10年吸引外来人口的强磁力中心。2015年外来流动人口500万人，长三角第2位。其中吸引省内流动人口达110万人，是省会南京的近2倍；吸引区域内的人口120多万，差不多相当于南京、无锡、常州之和；对省外的吸引243万人，相当于江苏其它城市之和。在经济上十年一迭代的产业体系，让苏州在风云变化中一直保持着其高新技术制造业的优势。对新经济培育与关注或许会成为未来经济高质量发展的重要保障。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;margin-bottom: 6px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 异军突起的合肥。不同于长三角的核心区的常青城市，合肥可谓后起之秀。人口上，他是省内城市的重要截流地，省内流动人口从2010年35万增加到2015年的160万。经济上，对科技创新的持续关注，建设综合性国家科学技术中心，强化自主创新，让合肥在新时期发展中脱颖而出，从“家电之城”转型为“科技创新策源地”，成为新经济时代名副其实的“黑马“。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;margin-bottom: 6px;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <article class="gulangu" data-author="gulangu" style="text-align: start;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: "Helvitica Neue", Helvitica, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "Arial Regular", sans-serif;font-size: 14px;margin: 5px auto;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 20px;border-width: 1px;border-style: dashed;border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="yead_bdlc" style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;padding: 10px;border-left-width: 7px;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);word-wrap: break-word !important;">4、思考与启示</section></section></article><p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 从人口流动看，随着一体化强化，区域之间发展差距缩小，人的粘性增强，长周期的跨域人口流动逐步趋稳甚至下降，区域内、城乡间人口流动将上升。对长三角而言，随着分工的强化，短周期的通勤、商务、休闲等流动会进一步强化，值得进一步研究和关注。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 从经济联系看，城市关联从传统等级化走向扁平网络化，但网络化不代表平均化，深度分工是成熟区域网络的标志，这种基于各自优势的分工会进一步加速要素流动。而创新经济未来将有更多的可能，给城市带来更多元的机会，也促进了功能与要素的再集聚。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;font-family: "PingFang SC"-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> 对城市启示：在区域中找到“朋友圈”，找到自身核心品牌，坚持创新，并不断更新迭代才能在区域中拥有持续竞争力。<p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> <p style="white-space: normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial;max-width: 100%;caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);text-indent: 24px;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 12px;line-height: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> <section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(212, 212, 212);padding: 10px;border-radius: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(45, 44, 47);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><h2 class="rich_media_title" style="margin-bottom: 14px;font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: start;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">习近平：支持长三角区域一体化发展并上升为国家战略——《新时代长三角一体化发展中长期战略研究》 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