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<section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1.5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);padding: 3px 10px 3px 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 35%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFd6acSA1MLXbIYYRLGUl3P7WYALyBdTlPeOibeswfZUt3pibhwFdl7cwQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 65%;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">ID:</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 68.3688%;background-attachment: scroll;padding: 15px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFc5icp3hibBsFkPzrGnHhzXBjFiaiabAzfdv9N1iaghCMiaLyVXVvictC3bLbA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.5664063" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFq1pPiaia3ic2LrhGianYu0YLL93kJUO20hic4DUuoQdD8IyMQlvpBtvQYDA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">今天的文章是中国人民大学经济学院教授陶然在清华大学建筑学院、清华大学中国新型城镇化研究院的举办的交流会上的演讲。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章从两个方面呈现：一是陶教授所理解的中国城镇化模式以及为什么这个模式不可持续和风险比较大，二是未来土地制度改革突破口在什么地方。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;background-color: rgba(41, 112, 36, 0.21);box-sizing: border-box;">之前有关土地管理法修改在网络上炒得火热，也引起了许多人的关注，这篇文章从近20年的角度梳理了城镇化的进程，也提出了一些土地改革制度的想法。如果你有想讨论的地方，欢迎在文末留言~</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在人口净流入的城市打破政府对土地的垄断成本代价非常大，如果贸然允许集体土地进入到住宅土地市场，房地产泡沫就会立刻破裂。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">目前唯一能够取得突破的地方就是允许集体土地上建设的住房进入租赁市场。租赁住房对于商品房的市场冲击比较小，但是也会对商品房市场上涨形成一定的遏制作用。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">最近大家都看到网上炒得非常热的土地管理法修改，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">这个里面主要讲的是把原来集体经营性土地入市写到土地管理法里面去。</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">这种文件说法有很大问题。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">所谓的集体经营性土地入市，<span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">说到底就是集体原来的产业用地可以进入工业用地和一部分商业用地的市场</strong></span>。首先限定了集体用地中只有产业用地能够入市，宅基地和其它用地不能入市；其次集体经营性用地只能进入工业用地和部分商业用地市场。目前各地做工业开发区，地价都是零地价或者负地价，集体土地进入工业市场基本上没有意义，因为根本竞争不过政府做的工业开发区的用地。商业用地也存在严重过剩的现象。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以真正的改革一定要是集体土地打破政府垄断要进入住宅用地的市场。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.1</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国近20年城镇化模式的<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">两个阶段</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFHSJyBGJvo3J1eNcf7Gr12bDMSskPqcBSUJUm9yY8OibmFkibLkQTQEeA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">我理解的中国1990年代中期以后的城镇化模式有两个阶段：第一个阶段是1995-2008年，这是中国比较健康的城镇化阶段；第二个阶段是2009年至今，是中国城镇化的泡沫化阶段。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1995-2008年的增长与城镇化模式</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1995-2008年中国城镇化模式基本上是向日本和东亚“四小龙”学习，是东亚模式的一个极端版本。</strong></span>可以说中国发展沿袭着一条类似、但又不完全同于东亚发展型经济体增长模式的道路。整体来看可总结为以下<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五个方面的特征</strong>：依赖投资，出口导向；以增长为目标的集权政治；亲商与反劳工体制；政府的“援助之手”（采用包括税收减免、出口退税等政策工具，还同时垄断了金融体系，向那些符合政府发展战略企业提供廉价贷款）。投资和出口推动的增长。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在这一发展模式下，政府主张“<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">亲商，反劳工</strong>”，将劳工成本的增速、工会活动、劳工保险的成本压低，鼓励发展劳动密集型产业。同时针对符合政府发展目标、能够帮政府创汇的企业，政府给予各种税收减免、出口退税、提供廉价贷款等优惠政策，降低存款利率，鼓励资本家进行投资。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面劳工收入占整个GDP的比例较低，银行的存款利息也比较低，就造成了国内内需较弱，国内的产出大于国内的需求，政府则通过压低本币的汇率把产品向国际市场倾销，中国加入WTO为出口创汇营造了非常有利的条件，形成了高度依赖投资和出口的增长模式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">从中国的发展数据来看，中国的东亚模式是全世界经济发展模式比较极端的版本。</strong></span>根据世界银行统计数据，其中投资占GDP的比例的数据中，全世界均值是20-30%，日本韩国的占比为30-40%，中国的占比为40-50%（图1）；与此相对应的内需即居民消费占GDP的比例的数据中，全世界均值为60-70%，日本韩国占比为50-60%，中国占比是40-50%（图2）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.5602837" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFl7SYvKzNwbYB1GQlabSWicyticj5CLBorTHfX7VkvLKG1d17XFLtLBbw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="705" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图1.固定资本形成总值占GDP比重</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(133, 132, 132);box-sizing: border-box;">资料来源：世界银行</span></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.5014124" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFa8XvKIGQAY2BbSfo333o0SfmZmqOsLJMlyBGphu9hcT1MQD6fGfAAQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="708" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图2.居民消费支出占GDP比重</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(133, 132, 132);box-sizing: border-box;">资料来源：世界银行</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">东亚模式基本上是二战以后，尤其是1960年以来全世界发展最好的经济模式，日本和东亚四小龙从低收入阶段到中等收入阶段，一步跨到高收入阶段，人均生产总值由1000美元到10000美元基本用了十六、七年时间。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国从2001年至今基本上也达到了人均国内生产总值10000美元的水平</strong>，但是以我国目前的发展状况是否还能够跨越中等收入还需要打一个很大的问号。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">因为目前仍有一系列的指标对中国进入高收入阶段非常不利，主要指非常大的收入差距及在这个经济水平下相当低的人口城镇化率。</strong>日本和东亚四小龙地区在发展到中等收入阶段后城镇化率均达到了60%-70%，目前中国常住人口城镇化率才刚超过50%，其中还包括了1.8亿由农村到城市的半城镇化人口。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这种结果可以归因于1995-2008年中国的城镇化模式，我称之为“三个垄断，一个竞争”（图3）。中国的经济发展非常快，核心的部门是在制造业下游行业的消费品制造部门，这个部门不仅供给国内市场，还具有较强的出口导向，并且在90年代中后期基本上实现了民营化，是由民营企业来主导的竞争性的部门。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">除此之外中国还有所谓的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">上游和金融</span></strong>这两个部门，基本上是国有垄断的行业，包括交通运输、高端装备、非金融服务业、电信、石油、石化、电力等行业。国有企业与民营企业基本上是一个上下游的关系，国有企业为民营企业提供垄断、高价、少供的投入产品，掌握着垄断的租金。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">此外还有一个比较垄断的部门是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">以国有银行为主导的金融部门</span></strong>，这个金融部门可以为国有垄断的企业提供比较便宜的贷款，但是给民营企业贷款利率则高很多，在这种模式下民营企业面临着高中间投入成本、高资金成本、高税的发展环境。即便如此，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国民营企业过去20年不仅有非常快的发展，而且中国还成为消费品市场的世界工厂</strong>。这中间一定是有其它的东西能够去弥补这个高价的投入带来的高成本，这就是这个模式的后半部分。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.5650842" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFWCCjSR5c8sfItWF7coicVtmiacC5sCapzgFh6BaMdic5lKchJYRTWaJDw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="653" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图3.1995-2008年的增长与城镇化模式</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">地方政府通过建立各种工业开发区，通过压低地价、压低环境的成本、压低劳工的价格来招商引资，给民营企业创造一个优惠的政策条件，这就形成了一种互补的关系。在<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">具体操作过程</strong>中，地方政府一方面是通过压低土地价格，放松环境管制来实现让利；另一方面则通过降低劳动力成本助推民营企业发展，主要是通过放松劳工场所的安全保护，不缴纳劳工社会保险等等来操作，这就是地方政府进行的一种无底线的竞争，也是90年代末从东部地区逐渐开始的工业开发区的浪潮的发展方式。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.4186667" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFicB51Rpq8GTnpFI6nW5PSiaoazycyiaX9NzvJmXOYEq326r4RfFZe9qgg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="750" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图4.中国的开发区发展浪潮</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">地方政府把制造业企业吸引过来，从制造业企业直接拿到的税收收入其实并不高。因为<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">制造业企业一般交两种税，一种叫做所得税，很多时候都会减免；一种是增值税，中央政府会拿走75%左右</strong>。大概在营改增之前，中央和地方还是六五和三五开，地方政府在征地时需要支付非常高的成本，比如环境、劳工的费用、维稳的成本，但是把企业吸引过来，拿到的直接税收并不多，又为什么要这么努力招商引资和竞争？</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">地方政府考虑的主要不是民营企业给他带来的直接的税收，也不是把制造业企业吸引过来政府官员就可以获得提拔，而是考虑到如果没有民营企业、制造业企业带来的产业投资就不会有对地方政府商业住宅用地的需求。那么<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">主要是哪几拨人最早在买房买地？</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">第一就是民营企业的管理层；第二就是当地的国有垄断的金融部门、国有金融的上游企业的这部分员工；当制造业企业发展起来后，就会有第三拨人；再加上地方政府的公务员和事业单位的人员。</strong>产生的这些住房建设、住房购买和商业消费都会给地方政府带来的税收、营业税的收入。此外还有商住用地出让金，地方政府通过垄断限量供应的商住用地来把最开始建设基础设施、搞工业开发区亏的钱赚回来，这就形成了一个<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">资本循环</span></strong>的过程。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">1995-2008年的这样一个城镇化的发展模式造成了土地利用的高度扭曲。在一般国家城镇化过程中，工业用地仅占10%-15%，最高不会超过20%，而这一时期中国工业用地占比达到40-50%。一般国家的城市建设中至少有50-60%的土地进行住宅建设，而中国的城镇化进程中商业加住宅用地总量仅占40%，住宅用地只有30%。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">这种城镇化建设模式带来了1995-2008年经济的快速增长，但是也造成了一线城市的房价泡沫。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">同时，这种快速城镇化模式也带来大量的外汇储备，使政府不得不超发20多万亿人民币来对冲外汇储备，其中一部分在2008年政府不断提高利率和存款准备金率时锁住了一部分，但仍有一部分资金冲在一线城市，带来北上广深和少数二线城市房价的快速上涨。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">所以中国有房地产的地方都是那些有制造业的、招商引资比较成功的城市，中西部地区就没有特别像样的房地产市场，因为制造业发展不足。</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2009-2018年中国泡沫模式</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">与日本对比</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFYZsVnzedfkicDGib9IMOZibL1jhNSE22yMFGosxXPyTHN3ez6FxLzVpMw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2009年国际金融危机以后，中国也进入了一个所谓的泡沫化模式</strong>，泡沫化模式的特点就是依赖出口推动经济增长的发展模式已经难以为继，民营企业的出口也不可能继续保持平均每年20%以上的增长。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2009年至今，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国经过三轮大规模的信贷刺激政策，通过国有银行大规模的放款带动中国新一轮的城镇化发展</strong>。国有银行的放款首先一部分投入到房地产商那里，用于在一二三线城市发展房地产；第二部分投入到许多没有制造业发展的中西部地区，受当时产城融合概念的影响，很多中西部地区在造新城的同时建设工业开发区。因为中西部地区的地方政府看到了房地产业发展带来的财政幻觉，认为以后商业土地出让金会很高，寄希望于通过建工业开发区把沿海地区的制造业吸引过来，带动地方人气，进而带动房地产业发展。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">此时地方政府基本上秉持着一种<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">赌博的想法</span></strong>，如果今后房地产业价格能够持续上涨，那么工业开发区和新城建设的成本是可以还掉的；如果还不掉，还有中央金融部门的支持，政府可以通过继续贷款来完善基础设施，吸引企业入驻，就可以盘活建设；但如果企业来不了，至少还有国有银行拖底。在这样发展思路下，地方政府大规模借债，从2008年的5万亿到2010年的10万亿，到现在举债金额还在不断新增，至少在30-40万亿之间。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">同时地方政府和房地产商大规模的推动房地产建设还造成了原材料、交通运输、铁道等服务的大规模需求，所以国有垄断的行业除了给地产商、地方政府，还给上游的央企大规模的借债。这样一种发展模式基本上完全建立在房价和商住价格不断上涨的基础之上，如果房地产市场出现问题，地方政府、房地产商、国有能源、原材料行业都会出现系统性的债务问题。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以中国房地产的影响远不止一般的居民，还会对国有垄断企业、地方政府的债务、房地产商产生系统性的关联。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2015年以后，中国开始新的一轮加杠杆的过程，主要是通过2016年大规模的刺激政策和棚改政策，由央行和国开行再给地方政府发放贷款，地方政府拿这个贷款直接以现金补偿的方式给所谓的棚户区市民，让他们购买过去几年城市郊区卖不掉的大批房地产存量，达到去库存目的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这一模式虽然短期内起到了去库存的作用，但也带来了一个问题，就是原来棚户区拆迁后必须以更高的价格向开发商出让被拆迁的土地并用出让金偿还国开行的贷款。但是问题在于这些积极推行棚改的三四线城市，大部分因该地区产业发展不足，为人口净流出地，才造成了商品房过剩，因此为去库存而推动的棚改又必然将产生新的库存。这种饮鸩止渴的方式使得<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国三四线城市的房价在过去两年内基本上都翻了一番，很多三四线城市的房价都已经破万，基本所有的城市房地产价格全面泡沫化</strong>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.2</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">房价高企下的土地制度<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">改革</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFm8SauHxPyV8zorIhFsbrbtp4n4qXjPXgjIAtEZsoTvFSibsWK5pYSpA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">背景与挑战</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">房价高企与城乡二元体制已经引发了广泛的“大城市病”。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">高房价下带来的社会经济问题突出。</strong>高房价也给年轻一代带来了过大的生活压力，导致其结婚推迟，生育率下降；加剧社会分异，影响人民福祉；同时抑制了城市科技创新能力，加剧金融和经济健康风险；私搭乱建环境和安全风险问题突出等。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">公共服务与基础设施亟待提升</strong>。从大兴“11?18”火灾事故到后厂村内涝，从老城公共服务设施匮乏到回龙观、天通苑的卧城危机，北京的公共服务与基础设施水平同经济发展水平相差甚远，交通严重拥堵，通勤成本过高。北京工作日持续拥堵时间接近2小时，人均通勤时间居全国首位，中心城区交通日出行总量超过4500万人次。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">环境治理形势依然严峻</strong>。虽然近年来环境质量有所好转，但大气污染、垃圾处理、水环境、土壤环境治理等仍然面临严峻挑战。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">租赁市场供需失配造成房租大幅上扬</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2015年北京房租收入比达到58%，高于深圳的54%、上海的48%和广州的38%。扣除通胀因素，2016年1月至今北京平均房租三年内再上涨32%。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2018年10月，在全国33个重点城市中，北京平均月租金已经突破90元大关，达到93.67元/平方米</strong>。房屋总量上，北京只有750万套住宅，套均2.1间，合计约1570万间，对应于约2200万人，住房刚性缺口630万间。北京800多万人存在租赁需求，但只有200万套左右的房子可供租赁。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">集体建设用地成为城乡发展</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">的战略性土地储备资源</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">城乡二元土地制度下，集体建设用地成为城市最重要的战略性土地储备资源。</span></strong>以北京市为例，集体建设用地占总用地的50%以上，五环内集体建设用地122平方公里，六环内484平方公里，平均容积率0.3-0.6。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.7388889" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFPq5twXiauZhpRfPRrXW52bo5erkasWhSJGAdn3rrLhWUZLz2FVZqa2A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图5.北京市集体建设用地分布</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">突破口：城中村、城郊村改造</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">与租赁住房建设联动改革</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在人口净流入的城市打破政府对土地的垄断成本代价非常大，如果贸然允许集体土地进入到住宅土地市场，房地产泡沫就会立刻破裂。包括现在讲的房地产税，如果贸然宣布增收房地产税，将会迅速引发房地产市场的抛售，届时房地产税没有征房价就会降下来，因此在泡沫非常大的时候，这个政策很难推行。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">目前唯一能够取得突破的地方就是允许集体土地上建设的住房进入租赁市场。</span></strong>租赁住房对于商品房的市场冲击比较小，但是也会对商品房市场上涨形成一定的遏制作用。某种程度上讲，即使现有房价跌一半，以城市里面的流动人口和应届毕业生的收入也不可能买得起房子，但是房价下跌30%，中国的金融泡沫就破了，因此现在通过打破政府的垄断来大规模供应商品房恐怕是做不到的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">与印度、巴西等其他发展中国家不同，我国城市里流动人口的收入虽然离购买商品房还差得很远，但是收入还是相当高的。根据2017年统计数据，中国的流动人口平均月收入4500元，一对夫妇月均收入能够达到9000元，假设月收入的30%用于房屋租金，他们能够实现举家迁移，子女能够在城市定居下来。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2017年出台了集体土地建设租赁住房的政策实质上较集体经营性用地入市这个改革要突破更大。集体经营性土地入市就是指允许集体经营性土地仅能进入工业和少量的商业用地市场，如果不能进入住房市场是不能解决根本问题的。而集体土地建设住房进入租赁市场后能够给大量的流动人口和应届毕业生提供低价宜居的租赁公寓，同时又对于房地产市场的冲击不会太大，因此这个改革会有比较大的意义。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">虽然现在用集体产业用地建设租赁住房有政策上的突破，但是能够实施的量非常少，完全实现不了大规模向市场供应出租房。</span></strong>首先地方政府积极性不是很高；其次能够允许集体土地进入租赁市场的主要是一些产业用地，在城市中具有出租价值且区位较好的集体经营性用地本身就比较少，那些真正有价值的集体经营性用地早已变成了开发商跟少数村干部之间的游戏。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">目前北京、广州、深圳城市中还有大量的低效利用的集体土地和区位条件良好具有租赁价值的城郊、城中村，这些集体土地主要是农民的宅基地，却面临着极其困难的拆迁问题，这些都是城市政府不愿面对的问题。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.5185185" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFJpxO9tnqoHjCBU42mVZkYI8Rib1cVI8yAIyCiarfKymnE4U7Bmu90cibA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图6.城市发展核心问题</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.3</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">利用集体建设用地建设租赁<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">住房情况</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFmLccD7jWhnpGHXpTQ7OLORl2yuaAKQmlDWn5FHnjLEy2am6XubzBew/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">北京集体建设用地改造规划建设情况</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">目前北京新规划45个集体租赁住房项目，涉及除密云外的所有区县，规划总用地面积203.9公顷，建成后预计可提供7-8万套租赁住房。从项目分布图来看，城南规划的项目明显多于城北，有大约一半以上的房屋位于五环以外，极少部分位于四环以内。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.317757" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjF0GSyAse4SO5zrQQSdX4mt4IcpoiaAuDcSeYniaTZmTSwzlNz26qydgjQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="428" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(133, 132, 132);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图7.北京市集体租赁住房项目分布图</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">北京集体建设用地改造难点分析</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2017-2021五年内计划供应10平方公里集体土地用于建设集体租赁住房。四环和五环附近的城中(郊）村居民点无法得到改造，只能在较为偏远、周边配套设施不足的地方供地。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">为了避免宅基地改造带来的拆迁难题，租赁住房建设都在既有的集体产业用地上进行。制约大批区位良好、具有很高租赁住房建设价值的旧村居土地供应，也无法实现乡村空间环境品质的提升。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">总体来看北京集体建设用地改造试点难点主要有项目选址困难、利益分配平衡难、缺少市场化的资源配置、缺少信贷资金、税费政策支持等问题。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">为打破这种困局，需要<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">突破只能在集体产业用地上建设租赁住房的现状</span></strong>，把大批四环、五环附近区位良好且具有租赁价值，包括农村宅基地在内的城中(郊）村列入租赁房建设供地范围。必须突破现有的地方政府主导拆迁或房地产商主导拆迁的城中(郊）村改造思路，有效处理拆迁过程中的“钉子户”问题。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.4</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">集体建设用地建设<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">租赁住房</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">的创新机制<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">设计</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibASzXdJjzfUBicWWAEEjoJjFaatwTznlU8olU1K297lyR9ssu8SQDylxbCeu4T04TthukVibfoJckfQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">创新机制的关键就是在城中村改造过程中，把开发商获得城中村部分土地进行商住开发并缴纳土地出让金的过程，与在村庄剩余土地上利用开发商缴纳出让金并进行安置房、出租屋、产业用地建设过程进行区隔，最终实现高效率的整村统筹改造。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这个模式可以有效的简化传统政府模式或开发商直接介入改造模式中的多方复杂博弈，最大程度上降低改造过程中达成交易所需时间、谈判成本与财务成本，全面加速改造过程。创新模式的具体流程如下。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">政府制定城中村改造</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">赔偿标准与相关政策</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">为避免拆迁补偿标准的“水涨船高”，应把握住很多村民乃至村集体实际上希望通过改造获得房产以及自身利益增值的心态，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">建立“整村统筹改造”权益的跨村竞争市场。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在这个创新模式下，地方政府在全市或全区范围内首先广泛征询大量有改造意向的村庄、规划技术人员和开发商等意见，然后制定并公布相关改造与补偿政策，包括村民合法与非法建筑的补偿标准、可以用于建设租赁房的土地总量和建设标准、需要贡献的公共服务设施用地和融资地块面积，以及先行达成共识的容积率或市政配套资金奖励政策等，然后在全市或者全区范围内进行公布。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">村集体内部谈判、确定改造方案</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">并与政府签订协议</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在对村所有土地、住宅现状做好调查摸底并取得所有资料的前提下，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">感兴趣的村集体和村民可以根据村庄自身条件自行测算，或者委托专业团队或独立第三方进行测算。</span></strong>测算的内容主要依据相应地段商品房价格与开发成本，估算出在该村所有土地中需要向开发商出让的土地面积及其对应的土地出让金需要满足的条件，使这个出让金总额在政府拿走市政配套所需部分之后，可以完全覆盖本村改造所有拆迁成本、外加本村所有基础设施建设以及村民安置房、村集体出租屋公寓、村集体新建产业用地园区合适组合的总改造成本。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">在测算过程中可以与政府规划部门就规划用途、容积率等问题进行沟通，测算完成后就融资机制、改造后各类型土地利用模式、利益分配机制等内容进行内部充分的沟通与谈判。</strong>一旦村集体、村民就改造方案及其内部分配方案达成共识，村集体就可以直接与政府签订城中村改造整体方案的协议。哪个村先通过内部博弈并达成一致意见就率先推动改造，政府可以给予规划用途、容积率或者市政配套资金奖励。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这样就会大大推动村集体内部关于利益分享机制的谈判，一旦达成共识就可以启动实施整村改造。当率先实施改造的城中村取得成功后就自然会对其他城中村起到示范效应。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-top: 1px;padding-bottom: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: left top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left top 0px;-o-transform-origin: left top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: right top 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right top 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right top 0px;-o-transform-origin: right top 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding: 3px;margin-top: -4px;margin-bottom: -6px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">政府出让融资地块获得出让金后</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">马上推动全面改造</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(45deg);-o-transform: rotate(45deg);transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: left bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;height: 5px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(77, 77, 77);transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-webkit-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-moz-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;-o-transform-origin: right bottom 0px;border-top-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-right-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);border-bottom-color: rgb(77, 77, 77);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: 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style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(105, 105, 105);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中规建业城市规划设计院（北京）有限公司</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">地址：</strong>北京市海淀区学清路9号汇智大厦B座</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">电话：</strong>010-86221338</p></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;text-align: right;margin-top: -4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 50px;height: 4px;background-color: rgb(125, 106, 96);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: 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