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                        <section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; letter-spacing: 15px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="letter-spacing: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一<span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.44px; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);"></span><span style="line-height: 24px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);">览<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>众<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>山<span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">°</span>小</span></span></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;">SustainableCity & Transportation</span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" padding: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgba(38, 53, 73, 0.862745);"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; padding: 1em 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHr8mtXicEbBiaPb6gibiayHKgVE135AiaISfgbU8UQfkfRWrxmvk0IibyhOow/0?wx_fmt=jpeg"); background-attachment: scroll; background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87); background-size: 100%; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(8, 8, 8); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">     编辑团队</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; border-color: rgb(8, 8, 8); border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: solid; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">  原文/ 王燕弓 </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">  校核/ 众山小   编辑/ 众山小   排版/ 解珊珊</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><p style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><p style="display: inline-block; width: 100%; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 38.2%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; width: 80%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHPTJb3IqRzXpAG1Ha3yrMKaaLeHWP8OStyXZZWhRa7nIDzoXeDCgtzQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1" data-w="170"  /></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 61.8%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0px 3px 0px 0px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(31, 156, 202); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">作者萌像&导读：</strong></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: block; min-height: 4.5em !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文是我们早期文章<a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODM2NjAxMA==&mid=401405706&idx=2&sn=ece04de5f6d2867fc72c386441a7a486&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" data_ue_src="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODM2NjAxMA==&mid=401405706&idx=2&sn=ece04de5f6d2867fc72c386441a7a486&scene=21#wechat_redirect" style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170); text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>《中国物流运输成本只有美国一半?》</strong></span></a>的续篇。上篇文章在我号一经刊发，就得到广泛转载，今天我们就来继续深入探讨这个话题。物流成本最近也一直是社会关注的热点，除了最新研究表明“中国物流成本高”其实是一则人云亦云的流言，而作为中国物流成本高依据的物流总费用占GDP比率，在国际上也从来就不是衡量物流成本的指标，长期以来对这个指标的理解和解读更是与该指标的真实本意背道而驰。那么到底如何客观的分析物流行业发展水平呢，欢迎大家深入和我们互动探讨。</em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; padding-top: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; width: 90%; margin: 0px auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; float: left; margin-top: -10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/XaibK6jxSz5Xmw0SibEFskrRia9SWVZvghj1oMexWRXaOLPPZnlnJ7ibF95cK67XtniccPcynLUSxz2IibX6AT1ibmxxA/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/XaibK6jxSz5Xmw0SibEFskrRia9SWVZvghj1oMexWRXaOLPPZnlnJ7ibF95cK67XtniccPcynLUSxz2IibX6AT1ibmxxA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="16"  /></section></section><section style="width: 80%; height: 3px; margin: 0px auto; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(31, 156, 202); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(31, 156, 202); box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="width: 16px; height: 16px; float: right; margin-top: -10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/XaibK6jxSz5Xmw0SibEFskrRia9SWVZvghj6JSrGc8FOQgex1oW3QUAgGCf91ZqDA6VNctl1sUeNmsJzZp8JnvVoQ/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/XaibK6jxSz5Xmw0SibEFskrRia9SWVZvghj6JSrGc8FOQgex1oW3QUAgGCf91ZqDA6VNctl1sUeNmsJzZp8JnvVoQ/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="16"  /></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" transform: rotate(3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(3deg); -o-transform: rotate(3deg); margin: 10px 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style=" transform: rotate(-3deg); -webkit-transform: rotate(-3deg); -moz-transform: rotate(-3deg); -o-transform: rotate(-3deg); box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); width: 100%; padding: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: white;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: center; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">被长期误读的中国物流成本</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">物流总费用占GDP比率<span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">其实是物流行业景气指标</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">“物流总费用占GDP比率”（Logistics cost as a percent of GDP）指标，源自美国供应链管理专业协会(CSCMP)定期发布的《美国物流年报》（Annual STATE OF LOGISTICS Report）<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献1，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>。该协会在《美国物流年报》中，将美国当年的“物流总费用占GDP比率”按照时间维度与历史数据进行比较，一般跨度为10年，目的是衡量美国物流行业景气程度并分析其变化趋势。在《美国物流年报》中，“物流总费用占GDP比率”的升高意味着物流行业的繁荣与发展，而降低则意味着物流行业的衰退和萧条。同时，“物流总费用占GDP比率”也被用来评估物流行业在经济发展中的规模、地位和重要性。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHicayjK81yIlRMicdQaBnelJjSJkI2PwjPicDos0u6ohibHLlst4eZJLSGQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6133093525179856" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图一、《2011年美国物流年报》截图</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">2001至2010年的十年间，美国物流总费用占GDP比率在9%的平均值附近上下波动，其中最低是2009年的7.8%，因此2009年也被称为美国物流行业遭受“毁灭性影响”（devastating effect）的一年，其诱因是爆发于2008年的“美国次贷危机”。经济的衰退和市场的萧条导致全美货运需求大跌，货运量在短短一年之内就减少了十分之一，其结果是物流总费用大幅下降和“物流总费用占GDP比率”跌倒历史谷底，而收入的减少也使美国货车司机数量下降了十分之一。《美国物流年报》对此的描述是:</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“开始于2007年12月，一直持续到2009年下半年的经济危机对物流体系的各个方面都产生了负面影响。物流行业比许多其他行业更能感觉到经济危机所带来的冲击,这是因为与各行业衰退相伴而来的是货运量的减少。2009年,美国物流总费用下降了18.2%,这是《美国物流年报》自1981年发表以来跌幅最大的一次。物流总费用下降到1.1万亿美元,比2008年减少了2440亿美元。加之2008年的跌幅,物流总费用在经济衰退期间下降了近3000亿美元。2009年,物流总费用占GDP比率降至7.8%,创下了历史最低点。”</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">美国“物流总费用占GDP比率”在经过2008、2009两年大跌后，2010年开始企稳回升。《美国物流报告》<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献2，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>中对此的描述是:</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“2010年物流总费用占GDP比率回升到8.3%，但仍然低于除2009年（7.8%）以外的任何一年，只恢复了衰退损失的一半。”</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“物流总费用占GDP比率”不能反映物流成本高低</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">只要能认真读完任意一年的《美国物流年报》，就可以立即明白“物流总费用占GDP比率”这个指标在中国是被错误的解读和使用了。在美国政府和物流企业千方百计地努力提高美国“物流总费用占GDP比率”，期待尽快恢复物流行业繁荣与发展的同时，在中国却有一些机构和专家大声疾呼要降低中国“物流总费用占GDP比率”，并要求政府将其定为政策目标，甚至还杜撰出每降低一个百分点就可以创造数千亿效益的离奇言论。如果物流总费用真是越低越好，那么最佳状态就是物流总费用和“物流总费用占GDP比率”通通降到零，而这将意味着整个物流行业没有任何收入，所有相关从业人员失去生活来源，其结果必然是一个国家物流行业的消亡。而如果没有物流行业，这个国家只能剩下不需要物流活动即可创造GDP的极少数行业，甚至回到男耕女织自给自足的小农经济社会，这样的状态到底是好事还是坏事，不言而喻。而按照所谓“物流总费用占GDP比率”每降低一个百分点就会创造6000亿元经济效益的说法计算，关闭所有物流相关企业，终止所有公路、铁路、民航的货物运输，让“物流总费用占GDP比率”从18%降至0%就能获得10.8万亿的经济效益，这未免也太匪夷所思了。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">比率这个东西，说到底只是分子和分母的相对大小。比率的下降既可以由分子变小导致（如经济危机导致货运量、物流总费用大跌），也可以是分母变大所带来（如新兴产业在不需要物流活动的情况下就创造了大量GDP，如互联网经济网，包括付费下载程序、游戏、音乐、视频等）。当然还包括两者同时变化，但变化的快慢、幅度不同等情形，也会使比率产生变化。因此这个比率只是一个表象，其变化会受多种复杂因素大的影响，有时候正面因素和负面因素反映到比率上会呈现相同的变化，所以必须要深入分析其背后的原因，不能唯指标论。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三 </strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“物流总费用占GDP比率”并不代表物流发展水平</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">“物流总费用占GDP比率”除了被错误解读为物流成本外，还经常被错误当成一个衡量国家物流发展水平和效率的指标，经常被用于“贬低”中国物流行业的发展水平。这种观点认为“物流总费用占GDP比率越低，就说明物流发展水平和效率就越高”，其所谓依据就是欧美等发达国家“物流总费用占GDP比率”比中国低，而这些国家的物流发展水平又比中国高，但是这样的逻辑和结论其实是经不起推敲的。因为，随便找一个相反案例就可以轻易推翻这一结论，即找一个“物流总费用占GDP比率”很低，但物流发展水平和效率又很差的国家。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHEPeVhM6PfJ2H8zMFdVc36icib5vCfuucNBianibx1oKODaKeqR86E37eag/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.1744604316546763" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图二、世界银行《物流绩效指数报告》</em></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">目前，国际社会广泛认可和普遍采用的国家地区间物流绩效水平排名是世界银行每年发布的《物流绩效指数报告》（The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators）<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献3，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>，其核心内容是“物流绩效指数（LPI）”，它是2007年由世界银行提出的用以衡量世界各国物流发展水平的指标体系，被认为是目前最权威和最严谨的物流发展水平衡量指标。在2014年世界银行发布的160个国家地区物流绩效指数（LPI）排名中，中国总排名第28（5分制中国得分3.53，第1名德国得分4.12），在中等收入国家中排名第2，远高于印度第56的总排名和巴西第65的总排名，而中国、印度、巴西的“物流总费用占GDP比率”分别是16.6%、13%、11.6%，中印、中巴、印巴的三组比较案例，足以推翻“物流总费用占GDP比率”越低物流发展水平和物流效率就越高的说法。当然，本文也不会以这几个样本比较，简单地得出“物流总费用占GDP比率”越高则物流绩效水平越高的结论，否则就是犯了同样的逻辑错误。但就“物流总费用占GDP比率”和物流绩效水平，从不同样本比较（中美、中印）所得到的离散结果，可以得出一个明确结论——即两个指标之间并不具有必然的相关性，所以“物流总费用占GDP比率”并不能用于判断物流发展水平和物流效率。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHyeGyo2CvRibHjxFAkAjAH4iauoLRuickpcJ4SenI7oDbbnk8I0ibTK3Xqg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.2320143884892085" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三、世界银行《物流成本与竞争力：衡量指标与行业政策的应用》</em></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">在世界银行2011年发布的《物流成本与竞争力：衡量指标与行业政策的应用》（LOGISTICS COSTS AND COMPETITIVENESS: MEASUREMENT AND TRADE POLICY APPLICATIONS）报告中<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239); box-sizing: border-box;">（参考文献4，请联系我们索取）</span></strong>，也特别提到了“物流成本占GDP比例”并不适用于评价物流发展水平或物流效率。世行报告中的具体表述是：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“‘物流总费用占GDP比率’可以有效衡量一个国家的物流行业规模，但并不能反映其物流绩效水平，因为两者之间是‘非单调性关系’（既不是越高越好，也不是越低越好），而这意味着仅凭‘物流总费用占GDP比率’是无法就物流发展水平或物流绩效得出可靠结论的。”</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四</strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">“物流总费用占GDP比率”由产业结构等多重因素决定</span></strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">“物流总费用占GDP比率”高低其实主要取决于产业结构和国家特性，具体包括经济结构、产业布局、国土面积、人口规模、资源分布等多种因素，面积大、人口多、资源分布不均、生产制造业发达、处于大建设大发展、物流总量大的国家，“物流总费用占GDP比率”就会高；面积小、人口少、资源分布均匀、以第三产业为主、进入平稳发展阶段、物流总量小的国家，“物流总费用占GDP比率”就会低，因此“物流总费用占GDP比率”只适用于相同国家的历史纵向比较，而不适用于国家间的横向比较。2014年我国第一、二产业占GDP比重为51.9%，“物流总费用占GDP比例”为16.6%；1981年美国第一、二产业占GDP比重为42.5%，“物流总费用占GDP比例”是16.2%；2011年美国第一、二产业占GDP比重为24.2%，“物流总费用占GDP比例”是8.5%；从这组数据可以看出，“物流总费用占GDP比率”与产业结构密切相关。在物流发展水平和物流成本差异极大的国家，受经济结构、发展阶段、国家特性等因素的综合作用，也可能会出现完全一样的“物流总费用占GDP比率”。因此将“社会物流总费用占GDP的比率”降低作为政策目标既不科学也不合理，更没有实际意义。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国目前存在的问题是，有种观点不仅是要降低“社会物流总费用占GDP的比率”，而且是要通过降分子（物流总费用）来实现比率的下降，这是完全是对《美国物流年报》创造这个指标本意的错误理解，人家是要衡量物流行业的规模和在经济发展中的地位，希望不断扩大物流市场规模，提高物流总费用，使物流行业获得更多的收入。从另一个角度说，对于任何一个行业，它有那么多的企业、那么多的从业人员，货币还在年年贬值，总收入的降低必然是灾难性的，就像我国目前钢铁、煤炭行业的衰落。当然任何行业发展有高峰就会有低谷，这是市场决定的，即使被淘汰也怪不得谁。但如果是误导政府，通过行政手段干预市场来降低物流总费用，强行降这降那，拆东墙补西墙，那真是走火入魔，缘木求鱼，太不正常了。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五</strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">物流费用占产品价格比重不能准确判断物流成本</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">目前还有种说法，“物流费用占商品售价”比重高，所以说明物流成本高，其实这也是不严谨的，需要具体情况具体分析。一个简单例子就足以说明该逻辑存在的问题，一个苹果手机卖8000元，通过快递送到顾客手中物流费用是10元，而一个国产手机只能卖到1000元，物流费用还是10元，那么国产手机的“物流费用占商品售价”就是苹果手机的8倍，但这并不代表后者的物流成本就是前者的8倍，因为两者的物流成本其实是完全一样的。在这个案例中，“物流费用占商品售价”比重高的根源并不是物流成本，而是发生在商品供给侧，即国产手机的市场价值低。合理的解决方式是通过技术创新、改进质量、丰富品种来提高国产手机的产品价值，但如果没有认识到问题本质，强求国产手机“物流费用占商品售价”一定也要降到苹果手机的水平，那就意味着国产手机的物流费用要从10元降至1.25元，那么物流企业自身成本和合理收益又如何保障？或者现实中能不能找到愿意亏本提供服务的物流企业？所以说这个逻辑本身就是错误的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">国家间的比较其实也是同样的道理，从产品附加值来看，与美国、日本等发达国家相比，我国工业产品增加值率偏低，这意味着实现同样多的商品销售量、耗费同样多的物流费用，但创造的增加值明显偏低，也是导致“物流成本占产品价格”比重高的重要原因。此外，原材料分布、产业布局、生产地和销售地距离，也会对物流费用占产品价格比重产生很大的影响。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">我国物流行业已经高度市场化了，物流费用是物流活动中各环节服务价值的正常体现，物流费用占商品售价的比例，完全由市场机制决定，只要符合市场规律，只要遵纪守法，无论是高还是低都是合理的。而购买一个商品，所买的其实不仅是产品本身，包括品牌、包装、设计、售后，乃至物流服务，都是顾客买到的“商品”，将物流和商品割裂看待的观点也是不妥的，没有物流哪来的商品。一个海南生产的菠萝，不能因为运到北京会提高物流费用占销售价格比例而放弃北京市场，也不能为了自己的利润，强行要求物流企业提供免费服务，更不能以人工成本占商品售价比例高为由，拒绝支付工人工资。无论多远地方生产的商品，无论物流费用占商品售价高低，只要有市场需求，就会有市场供给，物流服务本身其实已经融入了商品，商品的价格体现的也是从原材料、加工、直至送到顾客手中的全过程服务，而其中的比例构成完全由市场机制决定，根本无需别人操心。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">物流总费用不是洪水猛兽，因为物流成本是市场充分竞争的结果，该多少就是多少，而物流总量又是市场自发需求的结果，因此物流费用的增加还是降低那是市场的选择。像淘宝、京东的出现，肯定会增加物流总量和物流费用，以前大家购物是自己跑到实体店去，把商品拿回家，这是不计入物流统计的，而现在网上购物，商品还是那些商品，但确实是增加了物流费用和物流总量，也会相应提高“物流总费用占GDP比率”，但顾客的精力和时间都节省了，选择也更多了，购物体验和生活质量都提高了，这样的物流总费用增加就是好事。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">六</strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国真实物流成本远低于发达国家</strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">一个国家的物流总费用由物流总量和单位物流成本共同决定，举例来说，一件快递15元是物流成本，寄送了10件快递就是物流总量，一共花了150元就是物流总费用。如果讨论成本问题只看总费用而无视发生的物流总量，就很容易得出错误的结论。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">根据美国交通运输部（DOT）和中国国家统计局2011年的公开数据计算，美国的物流成本、运输成本和公路运输成本分别是中国的1.62倍、1.95倍和1.79倍。中国和美国每吨公里的物流成本分别是0.53元和0.86元、运输成本分别是0.28元和0.54元，公路运输成本分别是0.53元和0.94元。具体情况如下：</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggH5EJutouUfjeWPEXzMGG5Y1hZveKgDatL9Q7Kiarghft2tp1ibPRVXpJg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.106115107913669" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图四、2011年中美物流成本比较</em></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHsWRCeIkNsPcicWkRSOzxzhOhc5xfMEu2fAHsnhNUD7NVMNeu5xyPw2w/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.3183453237410072" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图五、中美单位GDP物流强度</strong></em></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">2011年，美国物流成本是中国的1.62倍，但中国单位GDP物流活动总量是美国的3.4倍，因此计算后得到的“物流总费用占GDP比率”中国是美国的2.1倍（3.4除以1.62）。可见，我国“物流总费用占GDP比率高”的根源是物流总量大而不是物流成本高，而物流总量大是由我国的产业结构、发展阶段、资源分布、产业布局、人口规模、国土面积、运输结构、物流管理水平等多个因素共同决定的。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.55em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 2em; height: 2.16em; border-bottom-left-radius: 0.4em; border-top-left-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"><section class="" style="line-height: 2.16em; width: 2em; height: 1em; padding-left: 0.5em; color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">七</strong></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 0px; border-left-width: 0.5em; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-top-width: 1.08em !important; border-top-style: solid !important; border-top-color: transparent !important; border-bottom-width: 1.08em !important; border-bottom-style: solid !important; border-bottom-color: transparent !important; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="display: block; float: left; padding: 0.2em 0.3em; margin: -2.11111em 0px 0.1em 1em; border: 1px solid rgb(166, 91, 203); border-radius: 0.4em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 1.5em; margin-left: 2px; float: left; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结语                                               </strong></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">物流总费用的多少应当交给市场决定，通过行政手段直接干涉物流总量或物流成本都是困难和不现实的。目前我国的物流成本并没有处于不合理的高水平，实际上我国的物流服务价格，特别是运输价格长期处于在较低水平，物流企业、运输企业之间主要依靠低价相互竞争，甚至采用非法方式谋求成本优势，如公路运输的超载超限和非法改装、偷逃高速公路通行费等，这也导致合法企业难以生存，要么随波逐流，要么黯然离场。而盲目追求低成本背后所隐藏的是社会成本的增加，包括基础设施的损毁、交通事故的发生、国家税费的流失、公共债务的增加等等。从消费者角度，支付的费用当然是越低越好，所有产品和服务如果能都免费那当然是最好，但任何产品和服务都有其市场价值，物流费用过低和菜贱伤农其实是一个道理。很多人并没有意识到物流行业存在的恶性竞争、缺乏诚信、执法不严、区域垄断等根源问题，反而被“中国物流成本高”的流言误导了方向，提出的建议也是简单粗暴的“降低！降低！降低！”不仅治标不治本，甚至还拆东墙补西墙，导致墙墙有洞。如为了所谓降低物流成本盲目建议减免仓储费、装卸费、公路通行费，完全无视其他行业的合法合理权益。这种逻辑不仅会伤害其他相关行业，同时也会伤害物流业自身，因为如果仓库无人建无人管，公路无钱修无钱养，必然导致物流效率和物流能力的整体下降，而物流行业失去竞争力，无法满足经济社会发展的更高要求，经济运行也将付出更大的社会成本代价。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; overflow: hidden;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 4em; height: 4em; border-radius: 50%; box-sizing: border-box; background-image: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yia3EmEQR49hp7efdB5RE7DgGNDbbPjRicvSDXicMibSxCiaSbllicVNFWwJ16f81pMDg3FOkV9oNng74JianPf8PpZdA/0?wx_fmt=png"); background-size: cover; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section style="width: 100%; height: 100%; overflow: hidden; box-sizing: border-box;"> <img style="width: 100%; height: 100%; opacity: 0; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/yia3EmEQR49hp7efdB5RE7DgGNDbbPjRicvSDXicMibSxCiaSbllicVNFWwJ16f81pMDg3FOkV9oNng74JianPf8PpZdA/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="1" data-w="64"  /></section></section><section style="width: 100%; margin-left: 1.2em; margin-top: -1.2em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left; white-space: nowrap; overflow: hidden; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; height: 2em; margin-left: 1em; border-bottom-left-radius: 1em; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(166, 91, 203); max-width: 85% !important; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="margin-left: 1.5em; line-height: 1.5; padding-right: 0.5em; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(166, 91, 203); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">  PS：如何看待“比率”这个东西</strong></section></section></section><section style="float: left; width: 5%; margin-left: -1px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; margin-top: 1.82em; border-radius: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(166, 91, 203);"></section></section><section style="clear: both; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">不仅是物流成本问题，其实很多领域都多多少少存在比率概念的滥用，确实需要反思。在很多研究或报道中，经常用国内的某个比率和其他国家进行比较，以试图证明某种观点，现在回头想想确实有些是欠妥的。比如说中国高速公路运输费用中30%是通行费，而美国几乎没有，所以有人就说大家看看，中国通行费高的离谱，比最发达的国家还高，通行费加重了企业负担，提高了物价。暂且不说没有收费就没有高速公路的简单逻辑，只谈两国运输成本构成本来就是完全不同的。美国确实是通行费很少，但他有轮胎税、重车税、牌照税、联邦和州两级燃油税，因此反过来也可以说中国的轮胎税、重车税、牌照税、省级燃油税占高速公路运输成本是0%，所以美国的税负太重，资本主义国家太黑，美国司机同志们太不容易了。怎么说都好像有理，其实是没理，因为根本是在鸡同鸭比。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">不久前还看一个研究报告说，“我国运输费用占物流总费用的52.9%，比美国低11%，比日本低9%，因此我国运输成本比美国和日本低，（结论碰巧是对的，但不该用比率的比较得出），因为就像跷跷板的两头，运输费用占比低的另一边就是仓储费用和管理费用占比高。假设两个国家，运输成本都是5元，一个仓储和管理费成本是5元，一个仓储管理成本是15元，那么运输费用占物流费用比例一个是50%，一个是25%，但运输成本其实是相同的，并不存在前者比后者高的事实。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">包括对“GDP中产业结构比率”这个指标的解读，也多少存在点问题，比如说我国一、二产业占比超过50%，经常被认为是经济结构不优，发展落后，但是第三产业的繁荣和一、二产业的衰败都可以导致一、二产业所占比率的降低，比如我国农业、工业、制造业都崩盘了，产业被泰国、越南等其他国家通通挤垮了、抢走了，吃啥用啥都只能靠进口，这样一、二产业所占比率是降低了，甚至没有了，但国家完蛋了。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">再回过头来说物流问题，世界银行的物流绩效指数（LPI）考核包括通关效率、货物及时性、运输价格等一系列综合因素，其中对物流成本的衡量是统一按照40英尺标准集装箱的运价来进行比较，通关效率和货物及时性是按天数来进行比较，可见绝对值的比较才更加客观有效，而只看比率的唯指标论实在是太不靠谱的方法。</section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(32, 164, 198); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们为本文提供的免费下载资料有：</strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1、《美国物流年报》</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggH9BhA6qDOX4zmgBBfBib4eH4icWvaWts6oAzK6chw78pMP95e9BCyUqaw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3278985507246377" data-w="552"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(32, 164, 198); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2、《美国物流报告》中文版</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHJColfcqQfiaPjzpAiajEbMTGHYcWrA8WGAQSLVfSUhxfqEqPN7hNTQCA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.6039387308533917" data-w="457"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHMG2FhQ1WxCmCGjfiaHmwpd8M294FsHqIwlwEcRL9oVkDciaBPo8C688g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.4400785854616895" data-w="509"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(32, 164, 198); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3、《物流绩效指数报告》</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggH01RWGJCw5rueSkniblcj0WvgAZibzx1iaAicd3RsicwonlcwCtRicv2RIFBQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3111510791366907" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHAFFtACzQ7lnHcpIANE9aBa1CNxkXqBqia52hUbhWicst2NXXtHzkwmEQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3057553956834533" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHmeGLfbvAtqaM1yeat6fFrIfJrRYPZkKc412XY6HaXOlibuUOH83ZWjQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3231046931407942" data-w="554"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggH0fDd4ZvyKGHMUkFGia9uISYxwgibOHiaicDJ8jdvJk6qsduSQX1KAXwZXw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3207207207207208" data-w="555"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(32, 164, 198); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4、《物流成本与竞争力：衡量指标与行业政策的应用》</strong></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggH4Envf76RAnGYAroXI1sl5ofMYDtEXXSBddVuGHC2sDByevz8V1ogIQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3093525179856116" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHNblBibQIXWFVUQqZvZU6ZmaJ4MicfdQxuU06slC2Fb1fVGor7FxoKdtQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3183453237410072" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="width: 2.8em; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/9NQkdx76iaQ6A0cyy2Tz5MZjmWv7ueHA2oL4eTZb4hykz1D1sORfDFXpRhJqnre0RRsaxxaSNopTpzYkic9ibJxqw/0?wx_fmt=png" class="" data-ratio="0.35555555555555557" data-w="45"  /> <section style="width: 100%; border-top-width: 2px; border-top-style: dotted; border-top-color: rgb(31, 156, 202); margin-top: -0.2em; box-sizing: border-box; background: url("http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHVKS2xy8QnFW6aE9pqomvIfgz8QY634m8BUiasYrmuL8NyNJdaiabpMYQ/0?wx_fmt=png") repeat-x;" class=""></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(31, 156, 202); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">如有需要请联系我们微信号@SustainableCity</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">或电邮daizongliu@qq.com </strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHnUH01f9YgIDAYPyuOhTgdOXfjFWveCnfSUgU1xaqfv048Ik4pokLUw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.7787769784172662" data-w=""  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="color: rgb(31, 156, 202); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">购买2015上半年刊，请点击阅读原文......</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin: 0.5em 0px; text-align: center;  box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="width: 2.2em; height: 2.2em; border: 0.12em solid rgb(225, 224, 224); border-radius: 50%; margin: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; box-shadow: rgb(194, 190, 190) 0px 0.2em 0.2em; 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background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></section></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 1.3em; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-radius: 0.5em; padding: 1em; margin-top: -1.5em; border: 0.1em solid rgb(204, 204, 204); height: auto !important; width: 100%;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; width: 30%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHKea8HblQYL1lES2rePlicW1syMtFZKws2JWGPFMgJrh3Mh44qjnhIQg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.0256410256410255" data-w="156"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; width: 70%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHXiaibjtjTr27l9GWCjT3qNkSm3RRPpWlXic8VdwXYsOZhMEwDxHsoqQGw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.9180327868852459" data-w="366"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">「 欢迎投稿 」</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style="text-align: left; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">我们作为专业志愿者团体，秉承理想，帮助中国可持续发展。并为之贡献：理念与传播、培训与教育、实践与孵化。欢迎您加入我们一起并肩前行！</section><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;">2014-2016 ? 转载请注明：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  />源自公众号“一览众山小-可持续城市与交通”</section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="   box-sizing: border-box; "><section class="" style=" margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;  box-sizing: border-box; "><img style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;" class="" src="http://img02.store.sogou.com/net/a/05/link?appid=100520091&url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/mee9Bdh9Tia8nL3Dk0S5TrRvp398V7ggHHhl0TX5bGLQeiaLePzoLYNvb8BSvHrGLSw4rAuTnlRiaMSGrvamIicnQw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.4118773946360153" data-w="522"  /></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="   box-sizing: border-box; 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