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<section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0.5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);padding: 3px 10px 3px 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 35%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRYLUy1ib2VABRptGoOPz8TRrsowEXDf1rO7EoUiaKqia0f02N6gALPV2vQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 65%;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">ID:</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 68.3688%;background-attachment: scroll;padding: 15px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRTwZ18vA0UBfbDTfpjuwR9RgUaX22wPTBg6aBEe6NZjCJhnoJxEzS2A/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">昨天为大家带来了尹稚教授解读《国家发展改革委关于培育发展现代化都市圈的指导意见》，今天专程找了一个关于发达国家都市圈案例，仅供参考了解。这篇文章出自清华大学建筑学院教授谭纵波所作的《日本东京都市圈——职能·问题·规划》演讲全文。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.1</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">概要</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRXZvfWkENeHxm0icbNtnLLibqNDkH6Lib9Er1rib6Y9hmXicoZOkibNrRj5nQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈以及首都圈建设规划范围</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈包含<span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三个范围</strong></span>，从内到外的圈层依次是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都、东京圈、首都圈。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">核心是东京都</span></strong>，这是一个行政管辖范围，其中包括有23区26市5町8村，相当于我国北京、上海、天津、重庆直辖市的等级；这个辖区范围内有1350万人，面积有2106平方公里。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">第二个范围是东京圈</span></strong>，包括东京都连同北边的千叶县、神奈川县、琦玉县，类似于我国的省、京津冀城市群，或者长三角城市群范围内的“杭嘉湖绍”和“苏锡常”；东京圈面积比北京略小一点，达到13373平方公里，人口比较多，有3613万，这个范围差不多是我们认为的半径50公里的都市圈。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">第三个范围是首都圈</span></strong>，半径100公里的都市圈，大城市核心辐射的极限距离，至少人类目前能做到的就是这个极限；在这里面汇集了4383万的人口，覆盖面积达到36494平方公里；这个范围其实也是日本中央政府对首都地区都市圈建设开展规划，颁布政策所适用的范围。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneR0DEFIIoKcgJVFejCIXjdKdMZoZxxcxSS2L40Z56bzuphyQGceLX5cw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">日本的发展近况</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">依据《日本统计2018》，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">日本人口达到1.27亿，人口老龄化程度非常严重</span></strong>，与中国相比要严重得多。GDP大概是不到5万亿美元的规模，总的经济规模不如中国。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">上个世纪90年代后期以来，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">日本的经济增长基本上停滞，被称之为“失去的20年”。</span></strong>但是，还存在不同的看法，日本其实在2005年总人口才开始下降，人口老龄化进展非常快；它所谓“失去的20年”仅仅指的是经济增长不如快速增长时期那般迅速。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在最鼎盛的时候，日本的GDP增速达到了20%，现在没有那么高，大概只有个位数，甚至在经济危机的时候还出现过负增长的情况。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.9426934" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRGauewAYnx5jGjiaXcXR4oSlxgMvXsAYWrRsTTYiaKkWPLXgicsswFOU4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="349" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">日本国土中的首都圈</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在日本称得上都市圈的，虽然有很多说法，但是真正名副其实的只有三个，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">即东京首都圈、中部圈和近畿圈。</span></strong>我们讲都市圈与人口普查所采取的人口密集区（DID）的概念，经济普查企事业单位的聚集度是吻合的。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRvKQ02xM0awujLeuSChrb1FAuDabudpOra7QWbX7aTJDlJ0cS4QIqXQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="401" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;">2015年人口普查DID地区</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.9731707" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRyZaJgoh9cpvY1Is5UJ5F3c1TNia4YRUlWwQRKiaHDL5WO3GR2tgXxCibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="410" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2014年经济普查企事业单位聚集度</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">能形成如此规模的东京都市圈最根本的条件是地理环境。</span></strong>因为日本是一个多山的国家，平原相对较少，东京所处的地方正好有一个冲积平原，于是为都市圈的形成提供了条件。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.2</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈的<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">职能</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈的中心地位</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">日本整个国家最核心、最重要的功能都在东京都市圈内，它不是像美国有各自单一的中心，而是只有一个综合性的中心，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">所有的能够称为中心职能的全部都集中在东京</span></strong>，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">跟我国的长三角、珠三角、京津冀不一样的地方也在于此。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈不仅仅是日本的政治、经济、文化、对外交往中心，而且还是日本最大的人口聚集地，汇集日本全国总人口数量的1/3左右，都在半径100公里的东京都市圈范围之内。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈的GDP占比达到38%。</span></strong>首都圈的GDP占日本全国的38%，这个占比一直以来都是稳定在这个数值上。其实日本的整体经济下降，很大程度上也就是因为首都圈的经济下降。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.875" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneR3N0FGVHZPSO2YaF6J7pZIpAo76X4FtGQQ49RGYmWf48SuFPbn2cdJQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="488" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈的GDP及占比</span></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈的产业结构中第三产业占比接近80%。第三产业的比重较大，稳定在70%~80%之间。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.993737" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRS67b8flwrfDmcBzccgtiaMs29fsj7EkSYJvLSFSiacjqxTxiaFxqhYWcw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="479" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈的产业结构</span></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈民营企业从业人员数量占全国三分之一左右。就日本全国而言，全国民营企业从业人口不到6000万，首都圈就占了2000万，达到1/3，基本上跟GDP的占比是相一致的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">外资企业</span></strong>的数量及占比接近<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">90%</strong>。在日本，几乎90%的外资企业都在首都圈里面，其它区域内外资所占的份额很少，这也说明了东京都市圈经济对外交往的情况。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈举行国际会议的数量及占比近年有所下降。</span></strong>近年来，举行国际会议的数量有所下降，从原来的40%下降到不足30%，下降的原因不是数量少了，而是别的地方举办会议数量增加了，对于首都圈而言，还是保持基本不变的状况。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈空港的国际旅客人数超过四千万。首都圈的国际旅客的总数量占日本全国的一半多，有54.4%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈外贸集装箱货物吞吐量占全国三分之一左右。首都圈外贸集装箱吞吐量在日本全国的占比是33.5%，除去三大都市圈，其他地方的总量还不足20%。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈在校生大概占全国的43.8%。值得一提的是，虽然别的地区也有，但私立的大学基本都集中在都市圈内。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRlh7P6yiaibXmHtYZOia6Y7DNeWHaYu4VwefNvXQx2LHIZ6Iib1Mje2balg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">三大都市圈人口增减变化过程</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">由于功能的集中，带来人口的集中。</span></strong>正如我们所知，人跑到大都市圈、大城市的目的是为了追求更美好、更舒适、更富足的生活。一个有意思的现象是：在日本，总人口已缓慢下降的情况下，进入都市圈里面的人口还在缓慢增长，地方的城市人口开始在减少，首都圈却还在略涨。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.6759848" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRxqCiaznLTQkgVhhlPvkKP5MPicqpYrIj8qpiaWysvJoImTwh987ETlAIQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="787" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三大都市圈人口增减变化过程</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈人口机械增长的过程（1975-2017）</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">泡沫经济导致房价过高，企业生存压力大，人们生活压力也大，所以人们往外跑。</span></strong>首都圈内部的人往东京都以外的地方跑，但是跑走后过段时间又回来了，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">这就跟我们逃离北上广、重返北上广类似。</strong>主要是因为走出去发现工作就业机会、生活环境、各种基础设施、服务设施不如东京都，同样企业也如此。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在日本，人口在国土空间里面的流动虽然缓慢，不像过去这么剧烈，但仍然还在进行，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">依然在往首都圈这个范围内汇集，而且是往首都圈的核心地区集中</span></strong>，所以这是非常值得深思的现象。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.4698795" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRhibbvQDTDL0NYCH9hlrWVRUABRgpuqRAyGrVEg3ZwEYZYWReqKR68ag/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="996" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈人口机械增长的过程（1975-2017）</span></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.3</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈的<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">问题</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRibibazTvQ1ia9rrg48u9xyMKVibhLUib8cdxJxacicBpsoyKxm85UmS9Mq0w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土空间“一极集中”的原因</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">一、历史原因（皇室+中央集权）。</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">日本历史上是一个中央集权的农业国家</strong>，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">这个也是所有的功能和人口全部往东京集中的最根本的原因</strong>，都往权力所在地集中。但是接下来，明治维新以后，特别是第二次世界大战之后，日本的经济发展，虽然有向权力集中的因素在里边，但事实上已经不是主要因素。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">二、国家配置资源的能力有限。</span></strong>其实日本的中央政府从上世纪60年代开始，就提出要疏散、疏解，不要把那么多功能全都放在首都圈里面，但是国家能够配置资源的能力太有限了。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">三、经济聚集的结果。</span></strong>市场发挥了关键作用，比如企业总部，可以看到，年利润在10亿美元以上的大企业，东京有600多个，纽约也不过才200多个，伦敦不到200个。此外，还有<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">大量的企业总部设在首都。</strong>传统的企业开设在首都不足为奇，那为什么像IT这样的企业也聚集在首都？</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">原因可能是，从事IT的员工希望享受都市生活，都市有各种可能性，各种思想的碰撞，各种便利的生活服务设施，导致<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">IT类83%的企业都集聚在首都圈</span></strong>。还有金融业，原来几个地方的证交所，甚至于大阪的证交所都发展不起来，因为没有那么多的业务量，大家都跑到东京的证交所上市，这也是地方证交所都关了的主要原因。<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">经济活力全部在东京，外资集中在这儿，跟文化相关的各种媒体，无论传统媒体还是新媒体，也都集中在这儿。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">四、地理因素。</span></strong>当然还有上述提到的关东平原的优越条件。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">五、新干线等交通设施的反虹吸效果。</span></strong>快速交通体系的建设是一个双刃剑，一方面，高铁、高速可以把都市圈核心城市的辐射功能发挥出来；但是另一方面还有反虹吸作用，就是核心城市把地方上的所有精华吸过来，这里面包括人才，以及高附加价值的产业，甚至于把全部功能都吸过来。   </p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRFY0ZZFHjxOUJVAwbuwuuwGrcMqUHiaeQl9ZAHhNrjkrAgiaMIHLe538Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土空间“一极集中”的问题</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">一、国土空间的非均衡发展。</span></strong>所有的要素都试图往首都圈里面集中，当然地方上就会相对凋零。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">二、建设用地连绵扩张。</span></strong>所谓的连绵扩张，就是没有什么空间可以放出来缓一缓。地价在泡沫经济时期的反映比较突出，泡沫经济过去以后稍好，但是城市中心地区的高地价与常住人口减少的情况依然存在。同时还有<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通拥挤的问题</strong>，比如通勤时地铁里面非常拥挤，还有通勤距离的增加导致工作岗位进一步向外部扩散，而内部的空心化情况则进一步加剧。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">三、自然灾害、恐怖主义等造成的风险。</span></strong>日本最核心、最中枢的地方全在这个首都圈，如果遭受地震、海啸、恐怖袭击，一旦首都圈瘫痪了，整个国家就将瘫痪，所以如何应对灾害是非常严峻的问题。其实地震本身没有什么可怕的，关键是次生灾害，比如海啸把福岛核电站摧毁，导致了放射性污染。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRf1oYGEFxsLAt1QO6k6e1AScLPZwyeSbvdpbITMSNDhTEgF3EeScic3Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">传统问题的缓解与转移</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">日本中央政府曾经提出过迁都，不过现在已经不再讨论了。最早<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都反对迁都的最重要理由</strong>就是：<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">把首都迁走，功能会分散，会导致东京的国际竞争力下降。</span></strong>东京都政府认为其竞争的主要对象是东亚地区，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">对标的主要是香港、上海</strong>，害怕这两个城市把东京的职能抢走。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">东京地方政府也正在改善相关的状况，比如针对通勤拥堵的问题，给女性专设车箱，因此通勤状况开始有所改善。从目前情况来看，东京的城市问题没有进一步加重，这里有很多背景原因。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRNk0Eg0AaBu706CJvNbnhiaL4C5ghpTMusYWz0dWQtWamian3msSSeEibg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">新问题的产生</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">低出生率、老龄化与劳动力减少。</span></strong>从数据分析结果来看，将来首都圈人口还是会减少，更关键的是15~64岁的劳动力人口是趋于减少的；还可以看到，在50~60公里都市圈范围之内的75岁高龄人口的增长是非常明显的。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.5634518" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRJTCz7HT9qLmbE1CibdvwWS9XtrN7qA9frNI0tJKkLh04cdAG6lKgSqg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="591" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈人口未来发展趋势（1995-2045）<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">城市“海绵化”现象。</span></strong>这里提到的日本城市海绵化，主要是指很多房屋是空着的，原本应该是很密集的大城市圈或者大城市的中心地区却出现了很多空置的房子，被称之为海绵化现象，就是出现了孔洞。东京都市圈内的实际空置，就是指真正这个房子长期没有人住的情况，大概最高的地方已经超过了10%，这是新出现的状况。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">上述是传统问题，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">新的问题</span></strong>也开始出现，新的问题和传统问题叠加在一块，在近20年涌现出来：一个是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">低出生率</span></strong>，老龄化和人口下降的最根本的原因就是不愿意结婚，不愿意生孩子，最后导致了人口下降；第二个是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">老龄化</span></strong>同时带来了养老和劳动力不足的问题。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">基础设施、公共服务设施的老化。</span></strong>还有值得一提的是基础设施和建筑物老化现象非常严重，战后很多基础设施，包括道路、桥梁这些设施、建筑物都已经使用了五六十年，到了需要翻新的时候。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRZApGzeicDAwzbxPMeA47gNhqa9pDRHearyPWMCzaeWXMsFXia9VIfWHQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">5</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市问题趋于稳定并得到逐步改善</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这20多年以来，日本做了很多工作，传统的问题有所缓解，特别在总人口下降的情况下，向首都圈进一步集中的压力现在已经没那么大，或者基本上消失了，只是过去的惯性还会有一点。从东京的地价来看，地价曲线非常陡，除了中央三区以外的地价，比北京的地价还要便宜，而且都是永久产权，没有70年的限制。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">针对地震等自然灾害，日本也做了大量的模拟工作，比如模拟研究南侧的太平洋海沟发生地震或者海啸所造成的影响。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.4</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈的<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">规划</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土形成规划（国土综合开发规划）</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">规划的历程是从上世纪60年代末开始，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">最初的国土综合开发后来改成国土形成规划</span></strong>。在过去已经做了<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">7轮规划</span></strong>，从一全综到五全综，做了<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">两轮国土形成规划</span></strong>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">可以看到，从上世纪60年代末开始，中央政府提出解决区域发展差异问题，就是特指都市圈，尤其是首都圈的集中问题，比如“三全综”提出控制人口与产业向大城市集中，“四全综”提出构筑多极分散型、多轴型的国土结构，“五全综”提出地域自立、美丽宜居的国土。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">到2015年，最新的国土形成规划里面提出两点：</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">一是改变人口流动方向，消解东京一极滞留</span></strong>，因为增长已经放缓，就要创造一定的条件，促进双向流动；</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">二是打造魅力地方，提高东京国际竞争力。</span></strong>其实这两个目标是有矛盾的，但也就这么定出来了。一方面不希望有太多的人口留在首都圈地区，同时又不愿意放弃东京在全球格局里面的竞争力。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneR1s7SFwyTWKkcCzsx7CniaaVRqs611eVRh6TOcHISRtzE3sJMmlHQUHg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈建设规划</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">除了在全国层面上的规划，中央在地方层面还有两个规划。</span></strong>一个是国土形成规划里面涉及到的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">首都区域规划</strong>，比如构建双向交流型的首都圈，纠正一极集中，增强国际竞争力；构建可应对最大型灾害的韧性首都圈；充分利用观光资源，发展外向旅游业。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">另外一个是根据1956年颁布的《首都圈建设法》，现在由国土交通省来实施的，过去分成三类规划，即基本建设、建设规划、项目规划；到了2005年的时候法律改变了，集中把它们称为<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈建设规划</strong>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">首都圈建设规划，跟国土形成规划基本是同步的。</span></strong>第一次是在上世纪50年代末60年代初，特点是“疏散+绿带+卫星城”，到1986年这一版提出纠正一极依赖，构建多核结构等等。最新版本强调“双向交流型结构、与自然共生、强化国际竞争力、打造韧性首都圈”。但是，很难说这些规划在战略层面上是成功的，甚至是失败的。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRXEociaNrmJrAaJ7wnQS0VcuOuagP2nF60S0zU43FNlHaKWiboJcjB5Sg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section><section style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都编制的规划</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">东京都从《东京构想2000》开始，一直到最新一版规划2017年的《城市营造的宏大设计》，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">规划三个“之城”，即安全之城、多彩之城、智慧之城。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">可以看到<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">格局在变大</span></strong>，原来的东京地方政府和中央政府之间是有矛盾的，中央政府老想往外疏解，但是东京政府不愿意疏解，因为东京都的GDP差不多1.8~1.9万亿美元，作为国家排名，大概在世界上可以排到第6~7位，是非常强的，所以说<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">东京都的知事能够动用的资源甚至比日本首相要多。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">但是这个2017年的规划基本上和中央妥协了，表现在与其让中央政府把首都迁走，不如东京都政府分出一些功能给周边地方。</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1.2323077" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRHolsj8GicU1fJAAX1Er4TjkaFmIgpoPUDTg6Jtf0ysmpq1bXVEEtC3A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="650" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(154, 154, 154);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《东京构想2000》<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-2px, 0px, 0px);margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0% -5px;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 8px 1px 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(73, 109, 75);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Part.5</strong></em></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color:#496d4b;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">总结</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 11px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 99%;vertical-align: top;border-color: rgb(158, 158, 158);border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: dashed;padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: -1px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none dashed dashed;border-color: rgb(188, 170, 164);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">谁拥有城市的权利</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRxp0aiaCP29jmQYgVs2PlLKibNFuPpTxAdN1dmpibcAibKwFPual5rscL2g/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 8%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12px;height: 12px;padding: 2px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);transform: rotate(45deg);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 92%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">都市圈形成和发展与问题相伴而生</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">都市圈的形成和发展与问题一定是伴生的，有都市圈一定会有问题。</span></strong>从东京首都圈可以看得出，最根本的就是市场规律。发挥市场的决定性作用，最根本的就是聚集的效力。虽然有研究提出合理的都市圈规模约在700万人左右，再大就不经济了，但实际上并不是这样，大概三四千万还是可以的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">无论是在中央政府和地方政府之间，还是在政府和社会之间，在<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">日本基本上是弱政府的状况</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">。所以，中央政府</span></strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">干预不了地方政府和社会民间组织。</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.75" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibAiagnTu967NJbkRpRPBzneRsxSvTeBicvS1IWthibBSws01GfDffxQwnaNmtU6BKM6bhsqicGJVbFmXA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1024" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 8%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12px;height: 12px;padding: 2px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);transform: rotate(45deg);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 92%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东京都市圈形成与发展的启示</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">解决大城市问题，东京或者日本的解决方案是卓有成效的</span></strong>，但不好用成功失败去评价它，它的战略目标并没有实现，但是不妨碍在技术层面的实施。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展都市圈会付出代价，比如说堵车、高房价</strong>，但是也要看收获了什么，东京收获的不只是在日本国内，世界城市香港、上海都很难完全取代它的作用，特别在金融方面，这就是东京的优势。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以考虑问题不能光看到代价，性价比才是衡量都市圈最根本的要素。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">首先，我们要克服大城市恐惧症。</span></strong>认识客观发展的规律和政府干预的界限，这是一个特别值得考虑的问题。单一中心首都圈是单一中心的都市圈，这种都市圈有它的合理性，也带来大量需要我们去解决的问题。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">规划本身有两面性</strong>，规划首先有可能把这个地方变得更好，但也有可能把方向带歪了。规划有局限性，不是万能的。我们一定要认识到，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">面对经济运行的时候，规划到底该不该干预，干预的力度多大，在哪个方向干预，这个特别值得做规划的人士思考。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">最后，首都圈汇集日本总人口的1/3左右，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">我国的首都圈应该容纳多少人口才是合适的？</span></strong>现在长三角的人口是1.5~1.6亿，珠三角的人口是8000万左右，京津冀还没有完全发育起来，估计约有5000万，未来可以容纳多少人口？是否会超过一个亿？</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">关于这些问题，我们没有遇到过，日本也没有遇到过，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(73, 109, 75);box-sizing: border-box;">这个地球上所有的人类都没有遇到过，产生恐惧是可以理解的。</span></strong>但是不能因为恐惧就回避这个问题，需要积极面对这个问题：<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">假如我国的首都圈将面临超过1亿人口的问题，我们该怎么办？</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章来源丨清华城镇化智库（tsinghua_TUCSU）</p><p style="box-sizing: 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border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(39, 39, 39);box-sizing: border-box;">在城市、乡村、景区实践着我们的追求</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0%;text-align: center;line-height: 0.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-top: 0.8em solid rgb(171, 211, 224);border-left: 0.7em solid transparent !important;border-right: 0.7em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;background-color: rgb(239, 239, 239);border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(105, 105, 105);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中规建业城市规划设计院（北京）有限公司</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">地址：</strong>北京市海淀区学清路9号汇智大厦B座</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">电话：</strong>010-86221338</p></section></section></section></section><section 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