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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(178, 185, 192) 1px 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.75" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPsdyDJYl10nRXibazQM4q0ZVxCDiaa4oRGF1h1Nh1NC7qDkAA9clticx9A/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpegwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: -70px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.2890625" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9vuC2OIkgibBeES38yMuI5uBHbmwVT621kg9SibZb6BoicIrXwKoPa8lOm8688MuxbMbcRUHVVHG2vST36amibkTKg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;color: rgba(0, 45, 72, 0.65);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 1.6px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">那个蹲在街角抽烟憋论文的人，</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">那个公园里寂寞地荡着秋千想文案的人，<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> 那个深夜小区门口醉酒呕吐的人，<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> 那个公交末班车上突然眼圈红起来的人，</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">那个办公桌前隔着手机看宝宝吹蜡烛的人，</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">那个高楼唯一亮着的灯下准备PPT的人，<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /> 那个独自躺在床上辗转难眠的人，</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们一起翻开那本书好不好。 <br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgba(38, 176, 231, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《Citipedia 城事一览》</strong></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们作为专业志愿者，</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">秉承共同理想，<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  />帮助中国可持续发展...<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgba(38, 176, 231, 0.79);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">也帮助奋斗的你。</strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-align: left;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgba(198, 105, 236, 0.86);box-sizing: border-box;">双十一特惠活动现已开启</span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgba(198, 105, 236, 0.86);box-sizing: border-box;">点击阅读原文或扫描二维码</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.2359375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPUgO8DZ2KrQqDzlTD6NucXpH3RFkJM5icibUibWvK1jbXO5NQ0vrrravicg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 98%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: transparent;padding: 0px 10px 10px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgb(170, 170, 170) 0px 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 60%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4294479" data-w="163" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/r7DHQcTk8t0sHcIQUNCwrtNfGSAQWbdvNfV8z52r6icPjXj05dX7bWqka8pAEMAVOsQqN8Pib3UMQExljs0Zor7A/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 0.1em solid rgb(0, 0, 0);border-bottom: 0.1em solid rgb(0, 0, 0);padding: 2px;line-height: 1.3;letter-spacing: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">编 辑 团 队</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(152, 152, 152);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 0px;margin: auto;border-top: 9px solid rgb(152, 152, 152);border-left: 9px solid transparent !important;border-right: 9px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 0px;margin: -10px auto 0px;border-top: 9px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 9px solid transparent !important;border-right: 9px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="170" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPN0UbOE53eibrntjnzGdTrCQevibqWI0LbRXOUKvvBd9NeT5DYbl0Yzug/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpegwebp"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0234375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPjRricQLL60zNQTFs8frf0NtmwdaYt567YLdHJkrzvaUaDmEiciaqM7JIg/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpegwebp"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 29px;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;margin: auto;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPjRricQLL60zNQTFs8frf0NtmwdaYt567YLdHJkrzvaUaDmEiciaqM7JIg/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp");background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0234375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPjRricQLL60zNQTFs8frf0NtmwdaYt567YLdHJkrzvaUaDmEiciaqM7JIg/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;opacity: 0;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpegwebp"  /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 33.33%;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(152, 152, 152);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 0px;margin: auto;border-top: 9px solid rgb(152, 152, 152);border-left: 9px solid transparent !important;border-right: 9px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 0px;margin: -10px auto 0px;border-top: 9px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 9px solid transparent !important;border-right: 9px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 30px 0% 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 90%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(192, 200, 209);padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(254, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgb(220, 221, 221) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;padding: 0px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(203, 117, 117);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">原文/</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></span>伍速锋</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(203, 117, 117);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">校验/</strong> </span>李哲行<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"> <span style="color: rgb(203, 117, 117);box-sizing: border-box;"> <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文献/</strong></span><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span>杨军丽</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(203, 117, 117);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">编辑/</strong> </span>众山小  <span style="color: rgb(203, 117, 117);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">排版/</strong> </span>胡亚光</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0% -26px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 0px 1px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 13px;margin: 3px 0px;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(255, 232, 131);text-align: center;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 0px 0px 0px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 4px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 0px 1px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 4px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">交通</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 0px 0px 0px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 13px;margin: 3px 0%;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: transparent;background-color: rgb(255, 232, 131);text-align: center;width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">览</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 45%;border-width: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 22px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 10%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0234375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPySR6kQqEWdKhAxnpKh9mycWFAvFF90euSpU8mBl6T6tiacVByGL4r1Q/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpegwebp"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 45%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 22px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 5px;background-color: rgba(97, 182, 204, 0.15);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-top: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-left: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-right-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);border-bottom-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: right;border-top: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-right: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-bottom-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);border-left-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block;color: transparent;clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="border-width: 1px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);border-radius: 6px;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;margin: -13px 3px;padding: 12px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(156, 187, 158);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">○</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(156, 187, 158);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">○</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 30%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.46" data-w="400" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dATav1pqDUPDU8qiaKicWbDBzLTgNrF9NuGjXYafqQDXKuuWh42dtp5QAJRhkazokespVDF8u7YCH43Okticoibwyw/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(202, 198, 198);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(202, 198, 198);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 59%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: -10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">编辑</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(133, 118, 106);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">导 读</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(202, 198, 198);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(202, 198, 198);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文的观点可能会颠覆你的传统认知，请开启一流智商模式。“检验一流智商的标准，就是看你能不能在头脑中同时存在两种相反的想法，仍能维持正常行事的能力。”（美国小说家菲兹杰拉德）。作者的结论是城市规模越大交通越倾向于越拥堵，不同规模城市的拥堵指数不能简单的进行比较。也就是说，那些排名其实都不太靠得住！</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-left: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-top-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);border-right-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: right;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-right: 6px solid rgb(97, 182, 204);border-top-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);border-left-color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市规模和城市交通拥堵是各城市领导比较关心的问题。</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">据说一些地方最高领导在交通拥堵季度排名出来之际都会直接过问，“这一次排名多少？下降了没有？有没有下滑到10名之外？”</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于城市规模，领导们那当然是更加关心，“越大越好”几乎是共识，在地方政府对土地财政的高度依赖下，规模增加意味着可供土地的增加，另外物理学家已经证明，城市规模越大产出越高，城市规模越大基础设施越集约！</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">那城市规模越大、交通不堵能兼得吗？现有的研究表明，其实非常难。因为总体而已，在其他条件不变的情况下，城市规模越大交通越堵，而且规模增加带来的交通需求增长速度要远高于交通供给的速度，即超线性关系，交通拥堵会越来严重，甚至影响到城市的正常运转。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">何为超线性关系？</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">                               </p><ul class=" list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果k=1, 那么就是线性关系，X增加一倍，Y也增加一倍，速度是同步的；</p></li><li><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果k>1, 那就是“超线性”关系（superlinear），就是Y的增长比X的增长快; </p></li><li><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果k<1, 那就是“次线性”关系（sublinear），就是Y的增长比X的增长慢。</p></li></ul></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 80px;height: 80px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-image: linear-gradient(to top, rgb(223, 233, 243) 0%, white 100%);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 75%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;height: 2em;padding-top: 0.3em;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"> 城 市 规 模 越 大 越 经 济           </span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 35px;height: 1em;width: 1.4em;text-align: center;line-height: 1.2em;margin-top: -0.3em;color: rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1</p></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1953125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/DvLmQsRorhqCsvAeicxqFZgnibbWzjVBJt2MIBONW7eatTibNYUtvGnjyUDJ9aHDI0tcsxGib19icHsYibUtcUdicIRGg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">美国物理学家韦斯特的《规模》一书（《规模:复杂世界的简单法则》，购买链接http://product.dangdang.com/25286990.html）分析了城市人口和加油站个数的关系，下图是法国、德国、荷兰和西班牙这四个国家的多个城市的人口数量和它们各自加油站的个数之间的关系。人口越多，加油站就越多，但是加油站的增长比人口慢。这四个对数图基本上表现了同一个比例关系：加油站数和人口数的0.85次方成正比。上述数据表明这是一个“次线性”关系，意味着城市规模越大（人口越多），人均所需要的加油站数就越少。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0163551" data-w="428" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPAzg2ufZUEURDE0rtlPqUus58O1GoTexwAls7dprlVHI9LAQ60pFicmg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图一、人口与加油站关系</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></strong></em></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">更多的研究表明，城市的道路总长度、水电和煤气管道总长度，也和人口的0.85次方成正比。这个规律意味着大城市比小城市更节省基础设施。</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1904762" data-w="252" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPXHxwLzTzNOKYLnhJFPzz2Yb5ic26FIRSnWmtXQfTFJSMPCgc0r4qu2g/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">利用《中国城市建设统计年报》研究分析了全国600余城市城区人口和道路长度的关系，标度率为0.87，与国外的统计相比，也比较接近。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6" data-w="480" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcP8VMB01wGicmkjJAqL72nwjv3iaFc5Mta1o1BJTtjicQic7qaZ3XgJBCEMw/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图二、中国600余城市城区人口和道路长度的关系（分别取自然对数）</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></em></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为什么城市基础设施和人口是一个次线性关系？因为城市把人聚集在一起，人的密度大，人均面积小，道路的利用率就高。让分散居住的几个村子的农民进城住在一起，其实更节省资源，也更环保，国内的研究也基本证明了这一点，目前国内城市人口和农村人口相当，但农村人口的总居住用地面积要远超城市的总居住用地面积。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关于0.85的来历，圣塔菲研究所的Luís M. A. Bettencourt做出了数学上的推理，认为应该是接近5/6，文章已经于2013年在著名杂志《科学》上发表。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-bottom: 1.2em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1em;height: 1em;margin-top: -0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;font-size: 80px;line-height: 1em;color: rgb(212, 223, 230);box-sizing: border-box;">“</span> <section style="width: 4em;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(212, 223, 230);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;margin-top: 1.6em;margin-left: -0.6em;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="margin-top: -0.5em;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市里每个人的基础收益，是与城市人口密度成正比的。我们设定N代表城市总人口，那么人口密度n=N/A。</p><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人均成本正比于A的1/2次方，人均基础收益正比于N/A，而要想让城市维持下去，就要求成本等于基础收益，所以A的1/2次方正比于N/A，于是得到：</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3516484" data-w="91" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPE95ev1Uca9yeYZPOCsPghficPDQxqWtMH6HzpK13yQL7ibDvhT4jxkng/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">也就是说，理想城市的面积是与人口总数的2/3次方成正比的。这个结论非常关键，他说明越大的城市反而越拥挤，当然，从另一方面你也可以说越大的城市反而越节省土地。</p><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">最后，再看基础设施。城市里两个人之间的平均距离心应该等于平均 面积的平方根，也就是d正比于(A/N)的1/2次方。如果这个城市的基础设施好, 人均拥有的道路长度应该就是两个人之间的平均距离。这样一来，城市道路的总长度Nd应该正比于 AN的平方根。再考虑到A正比于N的2/3次方，就得到：</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1925134" data-w="187" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPUuuibRX2aXv4opUfGLmoWjbdMMv8zuMn6ic1OA2WzqN0DHHqEKrqqH8g/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">注意5/6=0.833，这就是基础设施那个0.85的标度率的由来。</p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;height: 1em;float: right;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 4em;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(212, 223, 230);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><span style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;font-size: 80px;margin-top: -0.11em;margin-left: -0.1em;color: rgb(212, 223, 230);box-sizing: border-box;">”</span></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 80px;height: 80px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-image: linear-gradient(to top, rgb(223, 233, 243) 0%, white 100%);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 75%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;height: 2em;padding-top: 0.3em;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;">城 市 规 模 越 大 越 拥 堵            </span></span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 35px;height: 1em;width: 1.4em;text-align: center;line-height: 1.2em;margin-top: -0.3em;color: rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1953125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/DvLmQsRorhqCsvAeicxqFZgnibbWzjVBJt2MIBONW7eatTibNYUtvGnjyUDJ9aHDI0tcsxGib19icHsYibUtcUdicIRGg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市规模越大设施利用的效率越高，换一个角度，当超过设施的承载能力之后，对交通系统而言可能就是越拥堵。国内城市交通拥堵基本是符合这一规律，那些规模比较大的城市拥堵排名总是会倾向于更靠前一些。北京常年高居榜首暂且不论，上海的城市建设水平和交通管理水平在国内应该还是首屈一指的，而且较早的实行了车牌的拍卖，但依然摆脱不了不时进入三甲的命运。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.091358" data-w="405" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPI7wCkIX7YkMEuePDQeBRu1PRjaOXCEpiaDScQWiahfoqwibggLsUyNzGw/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图三、百度公司2018年第二季度通勤拥堵排名</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其实在西方一些国家，也基本呈现了城市规模越大交通越堵的态势。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5803571" data-w="560" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcP3Xm4eibhiaHlyuQRq5eTAF0rB5GRkibQGh0qvlpPiaCjhDADibCafWIUCew/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">图四、英国城市拥堵与人口规模对比</strong></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">为什么会这样呢？</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">美国工程院院士卡洛斯.达甘索最近在一次演讲中，做过一个比较通俗的解释。假设一个城市有一个中央商务区（CBD）。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">CBD交通的需求量与其面积成正比，CBD边界上能驶入的车辆数是与周长成正比的，前者是边长的2次方，后者是边长1次方，当边长越大，也就是CBD的规模越大时，交通需求与交通供给之间的矛盾也就越突出。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4421875" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPC5gadtWlrO3yt84IQPy2v8HabGf85hEZvgD0TH9rnA2hfJJLM29Tsg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图五、规模困境</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">如果考虑时间累积的影响，这个矛盾还会进一步加剧，大城市的高峰持续时间一般长于小城市就是这一规律的体现。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8156863" data-w="510" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPVTLibWX09IL4Dzyk30OSH7Ia5j8D5DoQts389lr2Tm6XjTtMHI46C6g/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图六、考虑时间因素的规模困境</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以5×5栅格城市和7×7栅格城市为例，城市尺度增大1.4倍，但中央小区对外出行量扩大了2倍。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.578125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPq04rmjicmfamx7YceQzF7ic07o5icEWnmQPQYdYC4EpLclWibEfsm5VXdA/640?wx_fmt=jpegwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpegwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图七、城市中心过境交通对比</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上面的分析可以看出，城市越大交通倾向于越堵，那就控制大城市的发展？但韦斯特研究表明这也是不对的，因为城市的产出和规模是个超线性关系，城市规模越大产出越高。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 80px;height: 80px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-image: linear-gradient(to top, rgb(223, 233, 243) 0%, white 100%);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 75%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;height: 2em;padding-top: 0.3em;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;">城 市 规 模 越 大 产 出 越 高  </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;">    </span></span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 35px;height: 1em;width: 1.4em;text-align: center;line-height: 1.2em;margin-top: -0.3em;color: rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1953125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/DvLmQsRorhqCsvAeicxqFZgnibbWzjVBJt2MIBONW7eatTibNYUtvGnjyUDJ9aHDI0tcsxGib19icHsYibUtcUdicIRGg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7192118" data-w="406" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPibwAK0nyo4mFpKsMO4HsBUQzhWuUAVQyL34maX0PglY9iasQblh20Ccw/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图八、城市工资总额和城市规模的关系</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></em></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7386091" data-w="417" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcP29EG09M9Dmn7Ndw4RictZd4DJUwzOjUmoAIZS4sdVg9Vcz2DBS9YIAQ/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图九、专业人才数量与城市规模的关系</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></em></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7966102" data-w="413" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPQTVyd7gbwjWmYNyVABFU8HwR8V87eTpVBJg8dkDrZ9rSnTOE3KFVhw/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十、专利数量与城市规模的关系</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">他利用美国各个城市的经济总量、专利数量和专业人才数量与人口的关系进行分析，发现也符合规模法则。幂率基本在1.15左右，反映出了超线性的关系，意味着城市产出的增长比城市规模的扩张快。把一千万人口的大都市和十万人口的小城对比，人口规模是扩大了100倍。考虑到100的0.85次方等于50，100的1.15次方等于200，那么这两个标度率就是说 ——城市人口规模扩大100倍，基础设施只需要扩大50倍，而城市的产出，却扩大了200倍，从产出与投入的角度可以说城市越大越好。</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.2272727" data-w="198" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPDcMTfKRS0r2rOhdPYmPld4ourQS60pibWXEWrAIEzpn8fFH3zonQFXg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">清华大学董磊等的研究也表明[4]，中国城市人口集聚带来的经济增长率也符合标度率的规律，而且与美国城市相比，标度律系数更高。市辖区人口每增加一倍，经济规模可增加122%，这一数字在美国是111%。</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.7578348" data-w="351" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPHpStic6Kgl1Ric4rYYRiaVcKdurdwrao7DKxguIAmN2BnEgNiaRr2xzvAA/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十一、中国城市人口规模和GRP标度律</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为何城市产出和人口是一个超线性关系？因为城市产出源自人与人之间的连接。产出不是由人数决定的，而是由连接数决定的。利用排列组合知识可知，n个人间两两相连的连接数D为〖D=C〗_n^2=n!/2!(n-2)!=(n(n-1))/2， D和n的呈二次方关系。如五个人之间总共有 5×4/2=10个连接；而六个人之间总共有 6×5/2 = 15个连接——连接数的增长，大大快于人数的增长。与此同时，人口密度越大，每个人所能轻易达到的连接就越多，城市总连接就会更多。</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 25%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 80px;height: 80px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);background-image: linear-gradient(to top, rgb(223, 233, 243) 0%, white 100%);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 75%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;height: 2em;padding-top: 0.3em;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid rgb(31, 78, 95);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市规模越大交通倾向于越堵</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></span></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 35px;height: 1em;width: 1.4em;text-align: center;line-height: 1.2em;margin-top: -0.3em;color: rgb(31, 78, 95);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">4</p></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 90%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1953125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/DvLmQsRorhqCsvAeicxqFZgnibbWzjVBJt2MIBONW7eatTibNYUtvGnjyUDJ9aHDI0tcsxGib19icHsYibUtcUdicIRGg/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4.1城市规模应与交通承载力相协调</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></em></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">我们知道树的高度不可能无限高，因为其受规模法则的约束。树的体积和重量与树的尺寸的立方成正比，而树的支撑力量是由树的横截面面积决定的，也就是与树的尺寸的平方成正比。如果把树的高度扩大10倍，那么其体积和重量将扩大到原来的1000倍，而它的支撑力只会变成原来的100倍，也就是说，树需要用100倍的力量去承担1000倍的重量，如果树一直长下去，早晚有一天，树将无法承担它自身的重量。</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4734375" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/mee9Bdh9Tia8QD1AicOUfYNCKXFicF4MjcPXpb7gRiaFmJDlqMpRnmBicjG5c3QPK8XKoBUSxkCx8OEcu5dg0k8Qt3g/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 2px;padding: 0px 5px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">图十二、树不可能无限高</em></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市的规模也存在同样的问题。如果不考虑基础设施的承载能力，城市是越大越好，然而城市的交通承载能力却是有限的，不可避免的导致城市规模越大，交通越堵。尽管有些城市通过用地与交通的协调、强化交通管理等缓解了交通拥堵的部分问题，但总体而言，还是呈现出城市规模越大，交通越堵的趋势。在交通拥堵影响到城市的正常运行之后，就应该控制城市规模。比如北京提出的疏解首都非核心职能从缓解交通的角度也是非常有必要的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4.2不同规模城市之间交通拥堵不能简单比较</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上述的分析可以看出，城市规模越大，交通总是倾向于越拥堵，不同规模城市的拥堵指数不能简单的进行比较，可以采用分组或者利用标度率折算后再进行比较。所以那些规模排名靠前城市的领导，不要再傻乎乎的直接要求把排名“调整”到10名开外，要么大一点，要么堵一点。当然确实也可以通过各种措施来缓解拥堵，但大城市需要付出更多的成本。</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.03125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/vkrINLtRVeeDS85mWXB6wicianRDyEl3JHXSGIV9zgmuALwiciaKHslWiahicpbNkMx1XGzbBCaaNz1673WQaMV98ib1A/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 2;padding: 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本文参考文献</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[1]伍速锋、吴克寒、 康浩、 曹雄赳、王芮、 冉江宇.城市交通拥堵机理解析.2018年中国城市交通规划年会论文集.</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[2] 杰弗里?韦斯特. 规模:复杂世界的简单法则[M]. 北京：中信出版社，2018.</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[3] 万维钢. 精英日课：为什么城市规模越大越好[J]. 得到, 2018.04.16.</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[4] 董磊, 王浩, 赵红蕊. 城市范围界定与标度律[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(2):213-223.</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[5] 贺大兴. 中国城市超线性规模效应研究[J]. 现代城市研究, 2014(7):49-54.</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[6] 百度.2018 第二季度中国城市交通研究报告百度[R].北京：百度地图,2018</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.1125" data-w="640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/Ul4fcdj4waEPJNuMprHRiaYWFDhla0lKbs4FFZuGI8eEXQuE2Eib0o4WE8Hscm8bnSNz2GlZeV1hCKDMwR9VUuMQ/640?wx_fmt=png?x-oss-process=style/xmwebp" 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