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<section style="font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);padding: 3px 10px 3px 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 35%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibBC5WRQhvZtz8VDAPIib6463ib51nxU2xvk2REfB5KEQy141t73zAKiaI5pkFe83x2MKljVvLZQ67Wug/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 65%;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">ID:</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibBC5WRQhvZtz8VDAPIib64637MxBuDXCnDCnMnFdbOfcAOS1hIJY5l5ibVMhhHfOpDv3QCx904zMR8A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文丨西部君</strong></span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口数量、老龄化程度，已经成为区域观察中一个越来越重要的指标。人的价值，正在被重新定义。这两年，一批二线城市发起“抢人大战”，就提供了一个非常现实的注脚。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">除了各城市的“抢人”政策，东部沿海向中西部的产业转移步伐加速，也是近年来区域间人口流向发生微妙改变的重要原因。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">据21世纪经济报道，得益于产业转移，四川常住人口数量变化在2010年迎来一个拐点。当年，四川常住人口总量减少到8041.8万人，2000-2010年间累计减少193万人，平均每年减少19.3万人。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">但自2011年起，四川常住人口总量开始逐年递增，保持较大增长幅度。2017年四川常住人口8302万人，比2010年8041.8万人累计增加260.2万人，创2000年来四川常住人口总量的新高。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">其中2011-2017，平均每年增加37.2万人，常住人口规模实现连续7年增加，尤其是2015年、2016年、2017年增加较多。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">而四川，只是近几年中西部多省人口持续回流的一个缩影。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left: 0.6em solid rgb(234, 85, 8);border-top: 0.5em solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 0.5em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left: 0.6em solid rgb(234, 85, 8);border-top: 0.5em solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 0.5em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.中西部人口持续回流</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">据中商产业研究院的统计：</p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibBC5WRQhvZtz8VDAPIib6463ekHNfxKbuyCYw2lQibI7TvUAcoZRibWkSlxVZ15JKia5BYiapGAZNlicNhA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2017年，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">全国常住人口增量在20万以上的省市有17个。其中，有11个属于中西部省市</span></strong>。安徽、广西、新疆、四川的人口增量更是达到40万以上。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这样的增量，对于过去最高每年流失上百万人口的大省来说，已经殊为不易。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">其原因，除了中西部地区<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">承接产业转移的速度加快</span></strong>，加速了原有外出人口的回流，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">生育政策的持续放开</span></strong>，令安徽、四川这样的人口大省的人口自然增长率有显著提升，也是重要因素。如安徽2017年自然增长的人口就有50.9万人。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">常住人口呈现出负增长的，只有上海、北京、天津、辽宁、黑龙江、吉林六地。尤其是上海、北京、天津，都是传统的人口流入热点地区，现在常住人口下降，具有较强的信号意义。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">上海、北京，与人口控制趋严，城市功能纾解，以及本就很低的人口自然增长率有关；天津，自身经济的滑坡是重要原因，并在一定程度上也受到北京人口政策的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省，除了众所周知的经济原因，老龄化严重导致人口自然增长率低也是不可忽视的因素。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以，总结起来，一个地方的“人气”，无论是增，还是减，说到底主要就是由经济和老龄化程度决定。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left: 0.6em solid rgb(234, 85, 8);border-top: 0.5em solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 0.5em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left: 0.6em solid rgb(234, 85, 8);border-top: 0.5em solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 0.5em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.人口净流出省份的地位未根本改变</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">尽管作为传统经济强省的广东、浙江，依然处于常住人口增量的前两位，但总体看，中西部人口的回流加速迹象已经很明显。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">不过，需要厘清的一点是，虽然中西部多省的常住人口有了明显回流，但它们作为典型的人口净流出省份的状况，依然没有根本改变。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">比如，去年常住人口增量居全国第三的安徽，当年人口净流出数量仍达到15万人，高居全国第一，并且10年间共流失了962.3万人。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibBC5WRQhvZtz8VDAPIib6463JGnRArcibb6bAozj7ianPibBAYicRLlO2pcNJY1tYF9VibprGwTSR7N546w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">由统计数据可以看出，安徽、河南、湖南、四川、江西、湖北、广西、贵州等依然是人口净流出省份。<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">这并非说现在的人口回流慢，而是过去长期以来，流失的人口实在太多。</span></strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这说明，对于中西部绝大多数省份来说，人口回流，会有一个过程，人口流向的改变不会一蹴而就。<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">反过来说，中西部地区发展的人口潜力，依然很大。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">未来中西部地区人口的净流出状况，得到根本改变，也就说明区域发展的差距真正缩小了。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left: 0.6em solid rgb(234, 85, 8);border-top: 0.5em solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 0.5em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left: 0.6em solid rgb(234, 85, 8);border-top: 0.5em solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 0.5em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.人口回流，中西部“弱省会”再见？</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">如果说中西部省份的人口回流加速，在全国范围内，构成了各省之间人口的再分配，那么，回流人口在省内的流向，则又构成是二次分配。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">去年发布的《中国流动人口发展报告2017》显示：</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-style: solid;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 1px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left-color: rgb(234, 85, 8);border-right-color: rgb(234, 85, 8);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>近6年，我国人口流动以跨省为主，但比例开始缓慢下降，省内跨市流动的比例缓慢上升，市内跨县流动则变动较小，说明人口流动的稳定性增强。</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">毫无疑问，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">省内跨市流动，省会城市将扮演主导角色</span></strong>。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">最近，有媒体提出了中西部“七小龙”的概念。它是指在2017年，中西部GDP达到7000亿的7座城市：重庆、成都、武汉、长沙、郑州、西安、合肥。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这七座城市在过去几年的快速崛起，具体原因有差异，但是大背景还是离不开产业转移给中西部带来的人口回流。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">不过，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">省会城市应不应该成为这轮人口回流机遇中的最大赢家，不能一概而论</span></strong>。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">仍以最具代表性的“七小龙”为例。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">论省会首位度，成都、武汉、西安、长沙，都在30%以上，已经可以称得上是强省会城市。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">需要指出的是，这里的首位度，仅是指GDP占全省的比重，未考虑省会城市与省内第二城的差距以及人口比重。如果加上这些综合指标，西安、长沙可能也不能算标准的强省会。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibBC5WRQhvZtz8VDAPIib6463cUSv4esvEcNFxbEOicN8DAgGvXTibZaenVKynPuAmianiafYA0lKSZkVgg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">来源：第一财经</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">相比较而言，合肥、郑州的首位度更是低于30%，特别是郑州，刚过20%，还属于典型的弱省会城市。那么，利用这轮人口回流的契机做强做大，机不可失。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">而对于成都、武汉、长沙来说，人口回流，它们依然可以预期是省内的最大受益者，但其它地级市更有必要抢抓机遇，奋起直追。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这方面，在人口回流的大背景下，提出建设经济副中心的四川，可以说是具有很强的前瞻性和战略眼光。因为流出的人口，大部分就是来自非省会的地级市，这些城市若不能抓住人口回流的机会，也就意味着将把更多的人口拱手让给省会城市，最终区域间的发展差距，将被进一步拉大。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">换言之，人口回流机遇的分配，也是四川经济副中心之争的一个重要维度。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">但现实的看，人口回流给中西部省份的最大影响，可能并不在于一般地级市的崛起，而是“弱省会”的消失。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibBC5WRQhvZtz8VDAPIib6463wyYTibEyicSXV9Pw9tCmibdWPsN8icbNY1ic1boCL2S9cT918fl90epc6eg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"> 来源：第一财经</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">从省会城市的人口占比看，“七小龙”中，长沙、郑州、合肥都只刚超过10%，与成都、武汉、西安有明显差距。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong>如果能够利用好人口回流的机会，这些省会在省内的人气，将迈上一个新台阶，届时，中西部可能将迎来一个普遍的强省会时代。</strong></span>而这，又有利于吸引更多人口回流。毕竟，过去安徽、河南的人口净流出量高居全国前列，就与缺乏强省会的“定海神针”作用，有很大关联。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: 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