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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 10px;border-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">梁育填</strong> 中山大学地理科学与规划学院副教授</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">黄慧怡</strong> 中山大学地理科学与规划学院</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">刘逸　 </strong>中山大学旅游学院副教授</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">周政可</strong> 中山大学地理科学与规划学院</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">原文刊载：</strong>梁育填,黄慧怡,刘逸,周政可.中国企业投资东南亚国家的影响因素分析——基于企业所有权差异的视角[J].地理科学,2018,38(05):645-653.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">版权说明</strong>：文章首发于地理科学公众号，感谢作者授权发布，如有转载等事宜，请联系原作者。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(247, 242, 236);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-left: 6px dotted rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right: 6px dotted rgb(95, 156, 239);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">摘要：</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以中国企业2005~2015 年对东南亚直接投资的项目作为研究样本，分析国有企业和民营企业在东南亚直接投资的国家选择和影响因素。研究表明，国有企业不回避政治风险较高的国家，倾向于开拓新的国家市场；相反，民营企业倾向投资政治风险低的国家，投资与中国贸易联系紧密、相对市场规模较大以及劳动力成本较低的国家。基于国有企业和民营企业对东南亚直接投资影响因素的差异，为中国对东南亚直接投资提出政策建议。</span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">关键词：</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"></span>对外直接投资；东南亚；国有企业；民营企业</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-top: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">引言</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　随着中国企业“走出去”战略和“一带一路”倡<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">议的实施，中国企业对外直接投资的步伐加快，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015 年中国超过日本成为全球第二大对外投资</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">国，对外直接投资额达到1 456.7 亿美元，其中国有</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企业占50.4%，非国有企业占49.6% [1]。然而，中国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企业对外直接投资的区位选择与发达国家的跨国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企业之间存在较大差异，引起了学者们的广泛关</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">注[2~6]。其中，普遍观点认为，投资主体所有权属性</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">差异会对对外投资的国别选择和作用因素产生影</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">响[2]。相对于民营企业而言，国有企业容易获得国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">家的政策和财政支持[7]，在对外直接投资的目标上</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">包含经济目标和政治目标等多重诉求[8]，国有企业</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和民营企业在政治地位、政府政策、企业制度等方</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">面的差异导致其在投资动机、行为特征和区位选</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">择上均具有显著不同[2,9]。东南亚是中国对外直接</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">投资的热点区域[10~14]，探讨国有企业和民营企业对</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">东南亚直接投资的区位选择及影响因素，对丰富</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新兴国家跨国公司对外直接投资的实证研究，以</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">及为国家和企业提出更有针对性的对外投资指导</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">意见具有重要的意义。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">   </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　关于中国企业对外直接投资，国内外学者已<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">经进行了大量的分析研究。李凝和郑蕾从宏观</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">角度讨论了中国对外直接投资的空间格局及其</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">动因[5,11]。Deng 从微观角度出发分析了中国企业</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对外直接投资的动机，认为政府在对外投资中扮</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">演了重要角色[15]。Kolstad 等分析了中国对外直接</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">投资区位选择及其决定因素，研究发现，中国企业</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">经济合作与发展组织（OECD，Organization  for </span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Economic Co-operation and Development）成员国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">家的直接投资更倾向于市场规模大的国家，对于</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">非OECD 国家的直接投资更倾向于拥有丰富自然</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">资源和制度不够完善的国家[16,17]。这类的研究是</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以国家所有企业和部门作为整体来进行研究，而</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据邓宁的国际投资折衷理论，国有企业和民营</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企业对外直接投资最主要的差别在于其所有权优</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">势的不同。近年来，学者们开始基于不同所有制</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">类型企业的视角来进行实证研究。现有研究大多</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">认为民营企业偏好市场规模较大、战略资产禀赋</span>较高、政治经济风险较低的东道国，而国有企业遵<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">循所在国家的战略需求，更多投资在自然资源部</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">门，不重视东道国的政治和经济情况[8,9,18~22]。尽管</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">已有文献考虑到国有企业和民营企业所有权的差</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">异导致其对外投资影响因素的不同，但对中国企</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业对东南亚直接投资的区位选择，尚未有从企业</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">所有权的视角进行探讨的文献。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">   </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　因此，本文利用中国商务部备案登记的对<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">外直接投资企业数据库，分析国有企业和民营</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企业对东南亚直接投资的差异及其影响因素，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为中国企业投资东南亚提出针对性的对外投资</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">建议。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);"><section class="" style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;background-color: rgb(96, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">１</p></section></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 1px solid;margin-top: 8px;padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究区域、方法与数据</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(71, 193, 168);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">1.1 <span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究区域</span></span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　本文选择的研究区域为东南亚的10 个东盟成<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">员国，分别是马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、新加坡、印</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">度尼西亚、文莱、越南、老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨，总面</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">积443.56 万km2，2015 年人口约6.01 亿，GDP 达到</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.4 万亿美元。东南亚是中国对外直接投资的热点</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区域，据商务部统计，2015 年中国对东南亚国家对</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">外直接投资流量达到146 亿美元，占中国对“一带</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一路”沿线国家地区投资的77.1%[1]。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">   </p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(71, 193, 168);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2 <span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究假设</span></strong></span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　已有研究表明国有企业和民营企业对东道国的投资区位选择的影响因素具有一定的差异性，为检验中国国有企业和民营企业投资东南亚国家的区位选择的影响因素差异性，本文从实际汇率水平、贸易联系[23]、相对市场规模[24]、工资水平、基础设施、总税费、政治风险等方面来比较国有企业和民营企业在对东南亚直接投资过程中影响因素的差异。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1V9KXycHgJaWB3My1C6rqGmtZJibq0MEyuibEsEic0I28mEqsUtnQpop0A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　1）实际汇率水平。Aliber 等认为国外直接投资（foreign direct investment，FDI）一般是从货币相对强势国家流入货币相对弱势国家[25]，因此人民币相对于东道国货币价值越高，中国对其投资也会越高。但是张新乐研究表明有些投资为了回避政治风险，会选择货币坚挺的国家，也就是货币币值稳定、具有升值空间的国家[26]。本文认为，相比于回避政治风险的目的，降低投资成本的目标对国有企业的影响更大。相比于国有企业在对外直接投资过程中常常具有政治目标和经济目标的双重性，降低投资成本对民营企业而言更为重要。综上所述，提出假设1：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设1a：东南亚东道国的实际汇率水平与中国对其直接投资成正比。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设1b：民营企业更容易受到实际汇率水平的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 95%;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1IqT0uJRymWiaxGibyibpB8TACyMBwLgSFkq5obC6SW9nFHtfa4qHPnZnw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　2）贸易联系。大量的实证研究表明贸易与投资存在互补的关系，企业可以利用贸易所积累得到的东道国信息，对其进行直接投资，以缩短直接投资所需耗费在熟悉东道国市场方面的资源。卢汉林等研究表明中国对东道国的出口同中国对外直接投资正相关，而国有企业因具有所有权优势，其抗风险能力相应增强，贸易联系对国有企业的对外投资的影响并不显著，而民营企业为规避信息不对称性和不确定性带来的投资风险，往往倾向于先通过出口积累当地经营及管理经验，熟悉市场及相关政策[21]。综上所述，提出假设2：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设2a：东南亚东道国与中国贸易联系和中国对其直接投资成正比。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设2b：民营企业更容易受到贸易联系的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1vhoRr0lnXN7JNCm9IPFiaJZKn6Ttmk8YV3TgQvlJ7C6JibiaPghlicmdibA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　3）相对市场规模。东道国的市场规模与经济实力通常被认为是吸引跨国有企业对其进行投资的主要因素[22]。相比于国有企业，民营企业由于在国内市场缺乏政策优势，更加倾向于到海外寻求市场，Ramasamy 等研究表明民营企业更倾向于寻求市场[18]；Amighini 等研究表明民营企业偏好市场规模较大的东道国或地区[20]。综上分析，提出假设3：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设3a：东南亚东道国市场规模与中国对其直接投资成正比。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设3b：民营企业更容易受到市场需求的驱动。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD170sOZfe7hIbKbp5WBbMPxK6wia8FErodMU3TjV3rSPjV0g5z8Fnt0dQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　4）工资水平。东道国低廉的劳动力成本是促使跨国有企业的投资因素之一。2004 年以来中国的劳动力成本不断上涨[27]，东南亚地区凭借廉价的生产和劳动力成本获得中国投资者的青睐。但国有企业对东南亚直接投资集中于承包交通运输基础设施工程、进行能源资源方面的服务贸易等，而民营企业尤其是规模较小的民营企业则较多是服装、玩具、家具制造业的劳动力密集型产业，因此，我们认为相较于国有企业，民营企业更加追求廉价劳动力。综上所述，提出假设4：</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设4a：东南亚东道国工资水平与中国对其直接投资成反比。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设4b：民营企业更容易受到工资水平的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1emoz35t0AshwPxLBSDlc5hulKM7gnD9uLVSG5S9FUFANlc4qBP0EYA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　5）基础设施。完善的基础设施条件能够为企业提供必要的物质条件基础，便捷的通讯和交通能力也能够为企业减少生产升本，提高生产效率。但中国企业对东南亚国家的投资情况来看，国有企业投资对外承包援助工程，而民营企业主要投资制造业和商业。因此，认为国有企业和民营企业都追求完善的基础设施条件，但是其对民营企业的影响更大。综上所述，提出假设5：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设5a：东南亚东道国基础设施条件与中国对其直接投资成正比。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设5b：民营企业更容易受到基础设施条件的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1bXDhNGBX1WbzlkGEqlzFEajo5Z7kpU7hLjicIe8XZUficFdVCgjTx9eA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　6）总税费。一般而言，税费越高，企业的经营成本越高。东道国的优惠政策也会使得自身的投资环境更加吸引投资企业。由于民营企业对于经济目标的追求，加上在国内相比于国有企业缺少相关的优惠政策，因此认为民营企业更加追求税费较低的投资环境。综上所述，提出假设6：</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设6a：东南亚东道国总税费与中国对其直接投资成反比。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设6b：民营企业更容易受到总税费的影响。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1yEKUNShGSK3F30G6xicxhj0aQUribZ4UONtoOuTHwIHU0iarL6KSVojaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　7）政治风险。一般而言，东道国政治稳定程度低，吸引投资的能力会下降。但也有研究表明相较于民营企业希望规避风险，选择政治经济风险程度较低的国家或地区进行投资，国有企业倾向于冒险的政治环境。如Ramasamy 等[18]等研究表示国有企业被冒险的政治环境的国家所吸引。Amighini[20]等结果表明民营企业偏好政治经济风险较低的东道国或地区所吸引，而国有企业不重视东道国的政治和经济情况。综上所述，提出假设7：</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设7a：东南亚东道国政治风险与国有企业对其直接投资成反比。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　假设7b：东南亚东道国政治风险与民营企业对其直接投资成正比。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.3  数据与方法</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　1）数据选取。本文使用的数据是来自中国商务部备案登记的对外直接投资企业情况[28]。首先查询出2005~2015 年中国企业对东南亚国家直接投资的所有项目，记录下每一个企业的境内投资主体名称、境外公司名称、项目日期及投资东道国。其次，对这些企业的所有权属性进行整理，将<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">投资企业分为国有企业与民营企业。最终整理出 2005~2015 年中国企业对东南亚国家直接投资的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">4 482 个企业投资项目（表1）。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1FryMNmmzibbMxg7ibib2AuEYO2GgzSTicJl7bbaGYs4S4C59noSb0T3lnA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　2）研究方法。本文采用面板数据，对所有变量取对数形式，其中由于政治稳定程度为标准化后数据，故不取对数，相关系数分别测量对外直接投资（outward foreign direct investment,OF-DI）对各相关变量的弹性。本文以中国跨国企业 2005~2015 年在东南亚国家的投资项目数作为被解释变量，以此来衡量中国企业在东道国的投资水平。解释变量为：① 实际汇率水平：本文利用东南亚各国货币对美元汇率与人民币对美元汇率计算得到东南亚各国货币对人民币的名义汇率，并以2005 年为基期，计算得到中国和东南亚各国的 CPI 指数，最终计算得出 2005~2015 年东南亚各国货币对人民币的实际汇率水平。② 贸易联系：本文选取中国向东南亚各国的实际出口额来反映两国之间的贸易联系。③ 相对市场规模：本文选取东道国人均 GDP 来衡量东道国市场规模与实力，该项指标越高，表明东道国的居民具有较强的购买力。④ 工资水平：本文选取东道国人均GNI 作为对东道国工资水平的间接测度。⑤ 基础设施：本文选择每百人拥有移动手机数量表示东道国基础设施水平。⑥ 总税费：本文选择总税率来度量总税费。⑦ 政治风险：本文以《全球治理指标》[29]中的政治稳定程度衡量东道国政治风险。其中政治稳定程度指政府被违宪手段或暴力手段动摇或推翻的可能性，包括政治动机的暴力与恐怖主义，标准化后的取值在-2.5~2.5 之间，数值越大表明政治稳定程度越高[30](表2)。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD14kcEL36ntsfPhHwnyOs2IicFKIdHUO2TOY25pVl9h40rGoUsrMxEIQg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);"><section class="" style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;background-color: rgb(96, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 1px solid;margin-top: 8px;padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国企业对东南亚国家直接投资的现状</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.1  中国企业对东南亚国家直接投资的总体情况</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　中国企业对东南亚国家的投资也以大幅度增长态势在增长。从投资规模看，2005~2015 年中国对东南亚国家直接投资由 1.58 亿美元上升到 146.06 亿美元。从投资的国别来看，2015 年末中国对东盟10 国直接投资存量情况如图1 所示，中国对东盟直接投资的国别分布极不平衡，投资最高的新加坡存量达到319.85 亿美元，占中国对东盟投资存量的51%；而投资最少的文莱投资存量仅为 0.73 亿美元，占中国对东盟投资存量的0.12%。从投资行业来看，从2015 年中国对东南亚投资存量的行业分布情况来看，排名前三位是租赁和商业服务业160.89 亿美元、制造业93.59 亿美元和电力/热力/燃气及水的供应业78.66 亿美元，分别占25.7%，14.9%和12.5%。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1zPAF38vRTBZL34V49fmiapicEyTEyWWX05ibAV3NKvZGvkctVibZaONgsw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.2 国有企业和民营企业对东南亚国家直接投资的差异</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　根据中国商务部备案登记的对外直接投资企业的数据，2005~2015 年中国企业对东南亚投资的情况：从投资企业数量来看，民营企业作为中国企业对东南亚直接投资的主力军，其投资企业的数量和增速明显快于国有企业（图2）。从投资国别来看，国有企业对东南亚直接投资企业项目数量最多的国家是新加坡、印度尼西亚和越南，民营企业对东南亚直接投资数量最多的国家是越南、新加坡和老挝（图3）。从投资方式和行业，国有企业对东南亚直接投资主要是对外承包援助工程，2015 年国有企业对东南亚直接投资的行业排名前三的分别是批<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发零售业、建筑业和电力/热力/燃气及水的生产和供应业；民营企业投资行业较为广泛，2015 年民营企业对东南亚直接投资的行业排名前三的分别是批发零售业、制造业和租赁和商业服务业（图4）。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD11v9aBQk9nZeAftbE3xhZbwn0FHd1AI6DCuBnxAFAbnq3ibcPtwb7zHw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1bd39a4JuTBVdCMxuGaumJznXKz99PXF3M6n7DVRobXIr6wFABZVUKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1xbuqZVvGDctmHhMBKUOiaiaSNUpw4E24EdZDmqdtXUPdib2MHfvo72ckA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);"><section class="" style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;background-color: rgb(96, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">３</p></section></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 1px solid;margin-top: 8px;padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国企业投资东南亚国家的影响因素分析</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　运用加权最小二乘法（WLS）分别对所有企业、国有企业和民营企业的数据进行回归分析（表<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3），结果显示，所有企业对东南亚直接投资水平与实际汇率水平、贸易联系、相对市场规模、基础设施和政治风险程呈现显著正相关，与工资水平和总税费呈现显著负相关，其中实际汇率水平的相</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关系数最大。具体而言，国有企业对东南亚直接投资水平与实际汇率水平、相对市场规模、工资水平、基础设施呈现显著正相关，与贸易联系、总税费和政治稳定度呈现显著负相关，其中实际汇率水平、总税费、相对市场规模的相关系数较大；民营企业对东南亚直接投资水平与实际汇率水平、贸易联系、相对市场规模、基础设施和政治稳定度呈现显著正相关，与工资水平和总税费呈现显著负相关，其中实际汇率水平、相对市场规模和工资水平的相关系数较大。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1AH3L5lRXib49gsFuKO1lxjgc3LULAHS1h6Wn2qgJnD5cunxFU7YSrQw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　总体情况如下：</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1V9KXycHgJaWB3My1C6rqGmtZJibq0MEyuibEsEic0I28mEqsUtnQpop0A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　1）在实际汇率水平方面，总体研究结果验证了假设1a，实际汇率水平对企业投资水平的影响正向且显著，且影响弹性很大。这也印证了冀相豹[30]等人的实证结果，自2005 年中国人民币汇率国改革以来，人民币处于升值的总体趋势中，这使得中国企业在东南亚投资时购买土地、机器设备、厂房、支付劳动力等方面的费用会降低，企业的投资总成本降低，因此投资水平上升。就这方面而言，国有企业和民营企业在实际汇率水平对企业投资水平的影响上差别不大。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 95%;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1IqT0uJRymWiaxGibyibpB8TACyMBwLgSFkq5obC6SW9nFHtfa4qHPnZnw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　2） 在贸易联系方面，研究结果验证了假设2b，贸易联系对民营企业投资水平的影响正向且显著，充分说明了贸易可以带动民营企业的投资，两者呈现相互促进相互拉动的关系。但与假设不同，总体模型结果显示，贸易联系对国有企业投资水平的影响负向且显著。其原因可能是国有企业在东南亚的直接投资主要集中于承包交通基础设施工程，以及在能源方面的合作与服务贸易，与货物进出口贸易的关系不大，并且由于所有权优势带来的抗风险能力，国有企业更可能去开拓与中国贸易联系紧密度较低的国家。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1vhoRr0lnXN7JNCm9IPFiaJZKn6Ttmk8YV3TgQvlJ7C6JibiaPghlicmdibA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="line-height: 1.8;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　3） 在相对市场规模方面，研究结果验证了假设3，相对市场规模对企业投资水平的影响正向且显著，影响弹性较大。这表明东南亚各国由于地域临近、文化氛围接近，目前投资的竞争压力相对较小，企业较容易进入，且市场前景广阔、升值空间大，对国有企业和民营企业都有较强的吸引力，而相比于国有企业，民营企业的投资水平受到市场规模的影响更大。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD170sOZfe7hIbKbp5WBbMPxK6wia8FErodMU3TjV3rSPjV0g5z8Fnt0dQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　4） 在工资水平方面，研究结果验证了假设4b，工资水平对民营企业投资水平的影响负向且显著，充分表明民营企业对东南亚直接投资受到东道国廉价劳动力的吸引。近年来大量中国民营企业转移到越南投资，劳动力成本低是很重要的影响因素。同时，与假设不同的是，工资水平对国有企业投资水平的影响正向且显著，可能是国有企业的产业多是资源密集型或资本密集型产业，对廉价劳动力的追求较少。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1emoz35t0AshwPxLBSDlc5hulKM7gnD9uLVSG5S9FUFANlc4qBP0EYA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　5） 在基础设施方面，研究结果验证了假设5，基础设施对企业投资水平的影响正向且显著。这表明完善便捷的通讯基础设施条件是吸引中国企业投资的重要因素。除此之外，通讯基础设施条件较落后的老挝、菲律宾等国家交通运输、电力电信等条件同样落后，也会对企业投资产生一定的负面作用。而相比于国有企业，民营企业的投资水平受到基础设施的影响更大。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1bXDhNGBX1WbzlkGEqlzFEajo5Z7kpU7hLjicIe8XZUficFdVCgjTx9eA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　6） 在总税费方面，研究结果验证了假设6a，总税费对企业投资水平的影响负向且显著。这表明东道国友好的招商引资政策能够吸引企业前往投资，企业的投资成本会因此降低。而相比于民营企业，总税费对国有企业的影响弹性更大，这表明优惠的政策、减少的税费对国有企业投资的吸引程度更大。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/yXntXceyB7icFpatJ04HXnzYq1dlVibYD1yEKUNShGSK3F30G6xicxhj0aQUribZ4UONtoOuTHwIHU0iarL6KSVojaQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">　　7） 在政治风险方面，研究结果验证了假设7，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">政治风险对国有企业投资水平的影响负向且显</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">著；而政治对民营企业投资水平的影响正向，显著</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">程度较低。这也表明政治稳定程度与经济发展有</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">着一定的关系，经济水平高的国家政治稳定程度</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">通常较高，因此将经济利益目标放在首位的民营</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企业通常会寻求政治稳定程度高的国家进行投</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">资。而国有企业的所有权优势使得其抗风险能力</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增强，同时，国有企业投资不仅考虑经济目标，还</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">考虑政治目标，因此不回避政治稳定程度较低的</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">环境，如中国国有企业在缅甸投资的铁路、公路、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">电力等基础设施项目。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 6px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -6px 8px;padding: 8px;border-top: 8px solid white;border-bottom: 8px solid white;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-table;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: table;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 1.5;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;height: 2.8em;width: 2.8em;box-sizing: border-box;padding: 0.2em;border-radius: 50% 50% 0px;background-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);"><section class="" style="height: 1.6em;width: 1.6em;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 0.15em;border-style: solid;border-color: white;background-color: rgb(96, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.6em;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">４</p></section></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 1px solid;margin-top: 8px;padding-top: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结论与启示</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4.1 结论</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　企业跨国投资的国别选择影响因素包括成本取向、利润取向、市场取向和公司战略取向，但企业所有权属性对企业跨国投资的国别选择影响尚未进行深入的探讨。本文从企业所有权性质的视角分析中国企业投资东南亚国家选择的影响因素，验证了不同的企业所有权对外直接投资的影响因素具有差异性。运用面板数据模型对样本进行回归分析，结果表明：① 国有企业和民营企业对东南亚实际汇率水平都十分敏感，汇率变动对其投资影响较大；便捷完善的基础设施有助于中国企业投资；开放的投资环境、友好的招商引资政策以及较低的税费有助于吸引中国企业的投资。 ② 对于国有企业而言，国有企业不回避投资政治风险较高的国家，倾向于开拓新的国家市场；相反，民营企业偏向于规避风险，偏向投资政治风险低的国家；同时倾向于先通过出口积累经验、熟悉东道国政策，投资与中国贸易联系紧密的国家；此外民营企业多是市场寻求型企业，希望到东南亚开拓市场并寻求廉价劳动力以降低生产成本。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;line-height: 1.2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);margin-bottom: -1px;border-top-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4.2  启示</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">　　从中国企业对东南亚国家直接投资的区位决策因素来看，投资主体所有权属性的差异将导致对投资区位选择的不同。中国企业“走出去”经历了援外项目、资源获取、兼并企业获取技术、品牌和市场等投资行为，但应根据不同国家的实际情况采取不同的投资策略。东南亚国家与中国有各种贸易往来，中国企业的投资主体、投资行为和投资领域更加多元化。① 中国企业应该了解行业市场潜力，利用各个国家巨大的市场潜力，有针对性地进行投资，开拓国外市场；② 国有企业应当充分利用好所有权优势，积极把握“政府搭桥-中方投资-中资企业承建”的投资策略，承担其高速公路、铁路、码头、发电厂等基础设施的投资建设，对东南亚经济水平较为落后的国家进行投资建设。③ 民营企业可以将劳动力密集型产业、以及<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">处于价值链下游的制造加工转移到东南亚国家，以充分利用东南亚国家的廉价劳动力。此外，东南亚国家开放的招商引资政策和优惠的条款待遇成为吸引中国企业投资的重要因素。因此政府应当及时地将信息传递给各企业，保障信息传递的通畅性、对等性和有效性，有效引导企业对东南亚投资。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></span></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;height: 240px;vertical-align: top;overflow-x: hidden;overflow-y: auto;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 46%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(18, 39, 54);box-sizing: border-box;" class=""></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 8%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin: 8px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/yXntXceyB7icUoibhdMvmY5laOIJIjWfFlPBSiatCmIJNJluoC2FLbKWsqHIuMibfVKejiagE17CWqtBtEbX42jYN7Q/640?wx_fmt=gif");background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/yXntXceyB7icUoibhdMvmY5laOIJIjWfFlPBSiatCmIJNJluoC2FLbKWsqHIuMibfVKejiagE17CWqtBtEbX42jYN7Q/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 46%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(18, 39, 54);box-sizing: border-box;" class=""></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">参考文献：</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">[1]     中华人民共和国商务部,中华人民共和国国家统计局,国家外汇管理局. 2003~2015 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京: 中国统计出版社,2016. 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