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<section style="font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 96%;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 90px;border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 5px;border-color: rgb(164, 197, 244);padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(133, 134, 135) 0px 0px 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 23%;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 5em;height: 5em;display: inline-block;border-radius: 100%;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);padding: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: cover;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5VK5EBYy8nFOhhg6uXYMDAQia5tz7C7zupZ65gffS5icULiay7yYZveokRw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5VK5EBYy8nFOhhg6uXYMDAQia5tz7C7zupZ65gffS5icULiay7yYZveokRw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 57%;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="tn-yzk-fuid-text-98718-1517277466565" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 11px;color: rgb(72, 72, 72);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: PingFangTC-light;box-sizing: border-box;">ID：<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-color: rgb(113, 215, 0);border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 5px;padding-right: 0.75em;padding-left: 0.75em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(9, 138, 43);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(9, 138, 43);line-height: 1.9;font-size: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">关注</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5VrkfgVxWRLcsUn8NcSs0TIBStuKNMicg6ec5AFNJt5E2XN5ibwlib35gwQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p> </section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>城是人的，和人一样，它也会生病。</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">近年来，社会各界围绕“城市病”的讨论不少，一个流行的观点是，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">当城市人口增加时，不可避免地会出现高房价、污染和拥堵等“城市病”</strong></span>，</span>因而在政策上常常会形成以控制人口数量来治病的思路。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">但是，在空间均衡的状态下，如果要把城市人口控制住，那么，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong>增长、和谐和宜居</strong></span>这三个城市发展的目标就必须要放掉一个。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市经济不增长可以减少人口流入；不宜居也可以减少人口流入；如果既要增长，又要宜居，建设卓越的全球城市，还想让人不来，那就只有加大制度成本，这样一来，不仅社会和谐的目标难以实现，还牺牲了平等和公正。<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 76, 0);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">问题是，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">“人”真的是病症之源吗？</strong></span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5VH3HgEyYEvGaKGGzvKozicQLzlXaK9IhNgIdTNEzP2g4GcEzPUcY3dPA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">图片出处：摄图网</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">在日前举行的“中国城市百人论坛2018年会”上，上海交通大学特聘教授、中国发展研究中心主任陆铭与来自上海海事大学的李杰伟两位学者共同发表了题为:</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>《城市病：治病还是控人？》的研究成果。</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">提出 <strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">“<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">有病治病，无需控人</span>”</span></strong> 这一核心观点，引发媒体关注。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">的确，城市病了，我们并不需要把“病”和“人”一起清理掉，好好治病即可。下面，我们就认真严肃地捋一捋这项研究，重新认识“人”与“城”的关系。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">虽然城市人多会带来城市病，但是实证结果显示，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">由于人口增加带来的环境污染和交通拥堵问题并不像人们想象的那么严重。</span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">换个角度来看，如果城市人口多到真的带来了很严重的城市病，那就不需要通过行政手段来控制人口了。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">我们先看两组数据图，更为直观。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;margin-left: 2px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">人多加剧污染？</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>首先，对于城市人口规模带来的后果，第一个印象就是人多加剧污染。</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong> </strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>但根据《城市病：治病还是控人？》</strong>，陆铭和李杰伟两位学者收集了中国城市层面的污染数据，在城市统计里有八个指标，图1的 <span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">纵轴就是八个污染指标，横轴是城市人口规模</span>，</strong></span>用常住人口总量代表。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5Vib0icI6VvL7cLux8G9fUks2Nn1J8ehDe2eXf6XPPbibgw5WNRgCB0c77w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1.2em solid rgb(27, 53, 136);border-left: 0.7em solid transparent !important;border-right: 0.7em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 88%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图1： 城市人口规模与环境污染 图据《城市病：治病还是控人？》</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">结果显示，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">这八个指标除了生活废水与人口规模的关系是正的，且比较显著之外，其他几个关系都很弱，且相关系数不大。</span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">生活废水一定与人多有关，但即便如此，相关系数也只有0.85，即人口增加1%生活废水增长0.85%，说明生活废水的排放有规模经济。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这也意味着同样的一个人，在保持生活水平不变的情况下，居住在大城市时生活废水排放反而是更小的。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">更重要的是，图1展示的<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">仅仅是两个变量的简单相关性</span></strong>，如果在回归方程里控制城市GDP和产业结构等指标，人口规模对污染排放的影响便全部都不显著了，包括生活废水排放量。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">也就是说，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">即使在散点图里看到人多会增加生活排污，其实也是因为人多的地方GDP的总量更大，是它带来污染排放，而不是人口数量。</span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"> </span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(170, 39, 79);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以，这项研究提出，人多会带来严重的环境污染或排放，这是一个大家脑子里存在的并不正确的假象。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;margin-left: 2px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">人多导致拥堵？</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>其次，我们常常觉得城市人多会带来拥堵，但陆铭和李杰伟的研究结果显示，人口带来的拥堵并非如此严重。</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5VkoQ91ZWicNETW6Hj1LTOlXAz1eWxHwdfnvcG2Fgy9OGFteuD7UiazT7g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1.2em solid rgb(27, 53, 136);border-left: 0.7em solid transparent !important;border-right: 0.7em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 88%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图2：交通拥堵与城市人口规模的关系 图据《城市病：治病还是控人？》</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图2表示的是拥堵与人口规模之间的关系<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">纵轴是高德公司发布的拥堵延时指数</span></strong>，</span>意思是上下班高峰时期“出行旅行时间/自由流旅行时间”，比值越高说明拥堵越严重，这里是用2016年三季度到2017年二季度日均拥堵指数计算的平均值。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">横轴是用就业人口总数表示的城市人口规模。</span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">拟合线同样很平坦，系数只有0.041，意味着就业人口增加一倍，拥堵指数只增加98个主要城市拥堵均值的2.5%（0.041÷1.64）。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">也就是说，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">如果平均而言，一个城市在拥堵时期同样路段的通勤时间是非拥堵时期的1.64倍，那么，就业人口翻倍，这个倍数仅增加到大约1.68倍。</span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">而且图中出现了三个高点——济南、哈尔滨、北京，如果把这三个“奇异点”拿掉，这条线将变得更平。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">由此可以推断，济南、哈尔滨、北京的拥堵一定是由别的原因所导致</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color:#1b3588;">。</span></span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 比如济南是一个狭长型的城市，而且济南为了保护地下泉水，至今没有通地铁；</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">北京则是出现了严重的职住分离、公共服务与居住分离、道路设计不合理、汽车数量未及时控制等诸多问题。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">——如果把拥堵都归结到人多这个问题上，并且大幅度减少城市人口数量，并不能减少多少拥堵。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(170, 39, 79);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">所以，总结起来就是，每一个城市的拥堵有每一个城市具体的原因，当把这些问题简单归结为人多的时候，可能找错药方了。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;padding-right: 3px;padding-left: 3px;text-align: center;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="height: 2.6em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="transform: rotate(-45deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(-45deg);-moz-transform: rotate(-45deg);-o-transform: rotate(-45deg);margin-top: -1em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2em;height: 2em;margin: auto;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;border-left: 0.2em solid rgb(27, 53, 136);border-bottom: 0.2em solid rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">不难看出，虽然环境污染、交通拥堵是典型的“城市病”，但研究证明，这些问题与人口并没有非常强的关系，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">要治病不能简单地通过控制城市人口来实现。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"> </span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">事实上，城市化不管是从农村进城，还是从小城市到大城市，或者反过来，其实都是人的选址问题。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>选址最基本的逻辑就是，只有当流动人口在这个国家的任何地方生活效用都一样时，流动才会停下来。</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">毕竟对美好生活的向往，是每个人用脚投票的结果。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDPR9mibLFhLXvuJZ6zglw5Vk9LKhWghMFN7UpSWRL37zsFXlIk9LNw1iaHa46ISwDlibViaEETh9sicmg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;">图片出处：摄图网</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">另一个问题是，虽然城市可以提供更好的教育、医疗等公共服务，但服务的不均等又带来诸多不和谐。</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">《城市病：治病还是控人？》认为，从供给侧改革的角度来看，如果能增加基础设施和公共服务的供给，则能够使城市人口在接近潜在最优规模的路径上，实现经济增长、社会和谐、城市宜居三个目标的共赢。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">这里需要指出中国的大城市历来存在的一个问题——规划往往滞后于实际。</span></strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">陆铭和李杰伟在研究中提到，以上海为例，上世纪90年代末制定过一次2020年规划，当时规划的人口是1850万，但今天还没到2020年上海已经有2400多万人了。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">虽然常有人说城市总规并不具有约束力，历史上都是被突破的，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);">但总规公布后，基础设施、公共服务往往都是按照总规中的人口规划的。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>如果人没有控制住，但是公共服务、基础设施控制住了，我们就会在城市里到处看到由于人口事先没有被准确预测而留下来的城市管理后遗症，</strong>比如：上海的地铁6号线，车体短而窄，几乎开通第一天就开始拥挤，这不能不说与规划滞后有关系。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(27, 53, 136);display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: -1px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五点建议</strong></p></section><section style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(160, 160, 160);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">根据陆铭和李杰伟的研究，出现城市病，只需要“有病治病”，无需控人。同时，为了实现城市发展、宜居、和谐三个目标的共赢，他们还提出了几点建议：</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">第一，更为科学地预测城市人口增长趋势。</span></strong></span>为此，应打破城市“承载力”的传统思维，抛弃武断的人口数量控制目标，而代之以更为科学且柔性的人口预测数量。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">第二，以科学的实有人口规模预测为基础分配城市建设用地总量，并根据实际需要动态调整土地供给总量，适度允许土地用途动态调整。</span></strong></span>土地用途调整应该以市场信号为引导，适度允许工业用地、商业用地和住宅（包括租赁住房）用地之间的相互调整。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">第三，以科学的实有人口规模预测为基础，规划交通基础设施、学校、医院等公共服务的数量和结构。</span></strong></span>在融资方面，允许民间资本进入基础设施和公共服务提供领域。为外来常住人口提供更为平等的公共服务，特别紧迫的是，应允许外来人口随迁子女在父母所在城市就学。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">第四，逐步降低大城市人口落户门槛。</span></strong></span>各种技能的劳动力如果能够在城市中工作，那么他们就在为城市的发展做出贡献，就应该平等地享受公共服务。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(27, 53, 136);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">第五，通过市场和政府多种力量，共同为低收入群体提供更多安居条件。</span></strong></span>在不妨碍城市发展的前提下，城市应该为低收入群体保留一些原本合法的建筑，无论是老旧建筑还是地下室。同时，需要通过建设保障房、廉租房等为城市新移民创造低成本居住的安居条件。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(14, 14, 14);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" powered-by="gulangu" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: 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border-box;">北京中规建业城市规划设计院</strong></span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">地址：</strong>北京市海淀区学清路9号汇智大厦B座</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">电话：</strong>010-57023605</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">新疆新土地城乡规划设计院</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">地址：</strong>乌市红光山路888号绿城广场2A栋14层</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">电话：</strong>0991-8885065   0991-8845621</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">网址：</strong>www.xtdplaner.com</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="width: 100%;text-align: right;margin-top: 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