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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-top-width: 6px;border-top-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-width: 6px;border-left-style: solid;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: right;border-top-width: 6px;border-top-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-width: 6px;border-right-style: solid;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block;color: transparent;clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section class="" style="border: 1px solid rgb(95, 156, 239);border-radius: 6px;word-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;margin: -13px 3px;padding: 12px;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">【北京·国际城市观察站】是由北京市城市规划设计研究院规划研究室为主建立的研究小组，旨在追踪世界前沿、推广国际经验，深入比较北京和其他国际大城市规划实践，为规划师和各级政府部门服务，关注领域涵盖城市规划所关注的所有方面。我们致力于：第一手资料+第一时间推送+第一流的分析总结。期待与国内外同行建立广泛的合作关系。</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-bottom-width: 6px;border-bottom-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-left-width: 6px;border-left-style: solid;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: right;border-bottom-width: 6px;border-bottom-style: solid;border-color: rgb(95, 156, 239);border-right-width: 6px;border-right-style: solid;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-left-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-right-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-style: solid;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 3px;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">项目团队：北京市城市规划设计研究院交通所交通模型小组</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">全文共分前情回顾、伦敦之鉴和北京之思三部分。前情回顾主要基于2016-2017年度北京市宏观交通模型更新维护工作成果，强调一些非技术性观点。伦敦之鉴主要讨论交通模型化身政策工具，战略交通模型体系，战略交通模型体系对伦敦规划和市长交通政策的支撑，模型建模指南和审计流程。北京之思针对非技术性问题供交通模型从业者审视与反思。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">第一篇内容包括前情回顾、伦敦之鉴一和伦敦之鉴二。第二篇内容包括伦敦之鉴三。第三篇内容包括伦敦之鉴四和北京之思。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em;height: 2.6em;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 2.6em;border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);"><section style="width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 50%;margin-top: 0.36em;margin-bottom: 0.35em;margin-left: 0.44em;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em;width: 0px;border-top-width: 1.1em;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-left-width: 1em !important;border-left-style: solid !important;border-left-color: transparent !important;border-right-width: 1.12em !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-right-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="border-top-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);display: inline-block;font-size: 18px;border-top-width: 2px;border-top-style: solid;padding-top: 1px;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">前情回顾</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: justify;margin-bottom: 5px;">北京城市交通模型发展至今已历经30年。1988年初次引进TRIPS软件；1992年受英国海外开发署资助由香港MVA咨询公司协助建立北京市第一个宏观交通战略规划模型，北京交通规划研究模型BTPS；1995年受亚洲开发银行资助对模型进行第一次修改形成北京交通研究模型BUTS，并结合金融街交通分析案例发表第一篇学术文章<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[1]</sup></strong></span>；2001年为配合城市轨道交通线网规划联合香港MVA咨询公司对模型架构与参数进行第二次重大更新和改进形成BUTS2<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[2-4]</sup></strong></span>。2002年，北京交通发展研究中心（现为北京交通发展研究院）成立，北京城市交通模型正式迈入“<span style="color: rgb(255, 169, 0);"><strong>一个城市，两套模型，求同存异，合作竞争</strong></span>”的局面。</p><p style="text-align: justify;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">城市交通模型一直在探索空间、产业、环境、设施和服务间规律与规则的关系，基于多源数据的交叉校验分析因果逻辑，借助逻辑认知和数据结论形成证据链条以支撑研判，利用可视化和交互现实增强决策者与用户对数据和证据的理解。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">因此，可将这种由交通模型计算、表征、挖掘和验证出的规律与规则总结为“<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 169, 0);">借助数据、挖掘证据；发现规律、拟定规则；模拟现状、验证规则；推估未来、洞察规律</span></strong>”的特点。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">城市交通模型发展至今，几代建模者、应用者和决策者已基本达成共识。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">(1) 科学观应“实事求是，因果推断”；</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">(2) 研判结论应形成“数据网、证据链、决策树”的递进逻辑；</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">(3) 输入输出应体现“透明化、平台化、开放化”的原则；</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">(4) 预测方法应挑战自我并审视认知，积极应对未来不确定性，摆脱对“模型预测+设施供给(Predict and Provide)”范式</span><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);text-decoration: none;"><strong><sup>[5-6]</sup></strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">的单路径依赖，针对具体问题与边界约束探索“模型预测+设施移除(Predict and Prevent)”、“愿景期望+模型验证(Vision and Validate)”和“政治决策+政策实施(Decision and Implementation)”的多路径预测方法。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-right: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;width: 95%;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9lJ4VXkw10LNgzhQ7cxibiaTUibtibmYpjAkAamZWQWh1K9mUA10Fia5lNtA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9xc2QxdII5UFJCUGjbeBm9GwyZ8dvSkibjsfYicHSOURyJRQDTsVafU4w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;">城市交通模型要进一步深化学科融合与领域交叉。融合交通与城市学科，交叉规划、设计、建设和管理领域，由交通土地模型提升为空间互动模型，推动交通政策与城市政策的科学决策与高效治理；融合经济、政治与规划学科，交叉个体诉求、群体理性和社会认同，由空间互动模型提升为市长模型、市民模型，推动公共政策与经济政策的精准施策与有效制定。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em;height: 2.6em;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 2.6em;border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);"><section style="width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 50%;margin-top: 0.36em;margin-bottom: 0.35em;margin-left: 0.44em;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em;width: 0px;border-top-width: 1.1em;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-left-width: 1em !important;border-left-style: solid !important;border-left-color: transparent !important;border-right-width: 1.12em !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-right-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="border-top-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);display: inline-block;font-size: 18px;border-top-width: 2px;border-top-style: solid;padding-top: 1px;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">伦敦之鉴一：交通模型化身政策工具</strong></p></section></section></section></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">北京城市交通模型始终在对标(Benchmarking)伦敦交通模型，深刻认识到交通模型以政策工具形式监督城市规划、空间发展和公共政策的实施，平衡用地诉求，振兴区域活力和提升空间价值中所发挥的重要作用。以公共交通可达性水平PTALs(Public Transport Accessibility Levels)为例<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[7]</sup></strong></span>。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;margin-bottom: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br  /></p><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">有别于国内特大城市以私人小汽车行驶速度为评判依据的交通拥堵指数，伦敦PTALs在空间栅格尺度下对可达性、居住容积率、停车泊位供给之间的适配性进行评估<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[8]</sup></strong></span>，通过拥堵收费、低排放区等资源配置手段在提高公共交通与私人小汽车竞争优势的同时，最大限度压缩小汽车使用空间和使用成本，切实落实“公交优先”战略<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[9]</sup></strong></span>。这种公共交通可达性水平指标体系是交通规划与土地规划互动联系的纽带，已推广使用到英国曼彻斯特(GMAL, 2017)<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[10]</sup></strong></span>，澳大利亚墨尔本(Saghapour et al., 2016)<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[11]</sup></strong></span>、新加坡(Kylie, 2018)<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[12</sup></strong><strong><sup>]</sup></strong></span>和新西兰(Abley&Halden, 2013)<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[13]</sup></strong></span>等城市与国家。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9ucBUDsVTkUL9lM4bH9OkIViaNvKY8M3ibdcnnH02j4Vx5ic9kcrNPJbHg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9qJic9zN8K79sZ6Qibv8iaC4G3TylD3RdicFuL7m4Bo4yyicEfcbQLsAPr4A/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;">Leibling(2014)<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[14]</sup></strong></span>对伦敦停车供给与需求的分析表明，<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 169, 0);">以停车配建指标为代表的停车政策一直是工党与保守党的竞争要点与市长交通策略的核心</span></strong>。工党执政期间（1997-2010年）于2004年借《The London Plan 2004》推行停车改革实行停车配建上限指标，保守党执政期间（2011-2016年）于2011年和2015年借《The London Plan 2011》提高外伦敦地区上限指标，工党再次执政期间（2017-至今）借《The London Plan 2017 Draft》大幅降低上限指标，计划设置零配建指标区域。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9RmLDDHeY9fdXz8JtibgfiaofpChsp3P97LElOPedfDKN2QyhSGJrcCFg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">工党政府，伦敦规划2004版</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9hYF3ZnSyHVoqtYL1OhtAfINYnJSSCOibLv7ibEEsxxgSicSPuIoUyLeDA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">保守党政府，伦敦规划2011版2015修订稿</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9OjQ8UTmcy5ib3ibRyWkjg9Q4bEYIuKE7ju1bCR3WX0CGpBbsMWA53EQg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 15px;">工党政府，伦敦规划2017版征求意见稿</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">Guo&Ren(2013)<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[15]</sup></strong></span>对伦敦停车改革进行梳理，认为其改革并非一蹴而就，而是从1976年历经近30年，从中心区小部分试点慢慢推广至市域，尽管2010年遭遇保守党逆转，但《Minor Alternations to the London Plan 2015》并未颠覆改革成果。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">20世纪70年代，大伦敦议会建议采用停车配建上限指标限制私人非居住停车，由外伦敦向中心地区逐渐减弱。1986年英国政府管制改革（英国版“简政放权”），上限指标被迫在外伦敦取消，其在中心和内伦敦起到的作用较小。2004年伦敦停车改革，再次强化上限指标，并将其扩展至居住区。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">伦敦停车改革是英国21世纪初期可持续发展交通政策逐步转变为国家意识的具体表现。2000年中央政府颁布PPG3-Housing规划政策指南，明确指出不再要求开发商提供多于其潜在客户群体所需的停车位。2001年中央政府颁布PPG13-Transport规划政策指南，明确国家层面交通政策目标是“减少出行需求，尤其是小汽车”，依靠停车政策促进可持续交通选择，降低通勤与其他出行对小汽车的依赖。2004年2月，大伦敦事务管理局GLA(Grater London Authority)批准《The London Plan 2004》，要求各区管理局将停车配建指标从下限指标转化为上限指标。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">2004年新规颁布后，地方法规并没有统一更新，如整体开发规划UDP(Unitary Development Plans)和地方开发框架LDF(Local Development Frameworks)。停车配建上限指标在内伦敦和中心伦敦地区的实施效果不佳，可归结于地方规划管理者考虑到低供给可能会导致街道乱停放，曲解并提高上限值，形成与政策初衷相悖的结果。实际上，交通管理者可通过设置居住区路侧停车法规来应对规划的曲解与放任，如停车受限区、停车许可证、停车收费等，或者通过无车化开发来更好地协调路内、路外停车政策与资源。<strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 169, 0);">规划决策者和交通管理者要牢记停车配建指标的定位，远超过开发商、交通规划传统范式所认为的那么简单，它是一种积极主动的公共政策工具，是联系交通规划与土地利用规划的纽带。</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 169, 0);"><br  /></span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2.6em;height: 2.6em;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 2.6em;border-radius: 50%;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);"><section style="width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 50%;margin-top: 0.36em;margin-bottom: 0.35em;margin-left: 0.44em;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section></section></section><section style="margin: -0.5em auto 0.3em;width: 0px;border-top-width: 1.1em;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-left-width: 1em !important;border-left-style: solid !important;border-left-color: transparent !important;border-right-width: 1.12em !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-right-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="border-top-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);display: inline-block;font-size: 18px;border-top-width: 2px;border-top-style: solid;padding-top: 1px;padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">伦敦之鉴二：战略交通模型体系STM</strong><span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"></span></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: justify;">公共交通可达性水平PTALs等政策工具的背后是由完善的战略交通模型体系(Strategic Transport Models, STM)所支撑的。STM由交通研究模型LTS、土地利用与交通互动模型LonLUTI、轨道客流预测模型Railplan、道路网分配模型LoHAM和自行车网络模型Cynemon这5个决策功能模型组成，用于研判方案与政策在大区域中的长期影响<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[16]</sup></strong></span>。STM对外提供付费使用服务，当前基准定价为每个功能模型3.3万英镑，约30万人民币，咨询费用另计。</p><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt940iaCCCYRur64lIV1ia6fNfu323iaTXr704T8E56UraSrzEYR0FqQCe4g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt93VVFariaxqumncZElqviacroTfiachGIlzLu2LdggxufgftcQZXCEnaBg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;">交通模型，尤其是战略交通模型的实践应用受制于构架与数据，具有很大的局限性，STM也不例外。为避免不同尺度、不同目的、不同精度的模型滥用可能导致的决策偏差与失误，伦敦交通局TFL(Transport for London)明确指出STM无法准确反映个体层面方式、路径和出行的特征，个体间出行行为的相互影响和逐日拥堵变动。战略模型更适合评估交通出行者的整体路径选择及其在网络上产生的准均质化拥堵，对细节问题的考量应由其他深化模型应对，这些深化模型的假设条件、输入参数和边界约束应由STM确定。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9hs8DvH75hcHmMWbibhc1QcIOKcPIZGn3aJGic4OfLs5TTS6MkSRMncdQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin-top: 10px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.1 交通研究模型LTS</strong></p></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;">交通研究模型LTS(London Transportation Studies Model)是架构于传统四阶段法的宏观交通模型，1962年开始搭建，1986年利用MVA咨询公司TRIPS软件进行建模，2009年软件评估引入CUBE Voyager，2013年由CITILABS公司的Tor Vorraa以2011年为基准年完成新版模型<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[17-18]</sup></strong></span>，其建模标准主要依据英国交通部的交通分析指南WebTAG<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[19]</sup></strong></span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">其网络模块共划分4004个交通小区（1294个公交小区），包含9.3万个节点和近27万条路段信息，编码750对地面公交线路，1320条轨道线路；需求模块划分5个年龄群体、4类家庭、4类拥车类型、7种目的（HBW基于家白领、HBW基于家蓝领、HBEB基于家商务、HBE基于家通学、HBO基于家其他、NHBEB非基于家商务和NHBO非基于家其他）和8种分配车型；分配模块划分早高峰(7:00-10:00)、平峰(10:00-16:00)、晚高峰(16:00-19:00)三个时段，道路网络分配结果输出给LoHAM，公交网络分配结果输出给Railplan，综合结果反馈给LonLUTI。</p><p style="text-align: center;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAzBh9qRw3skLUkPT2jD9N9Ojic20uKIuGPVxV7wMv1EeFW0tianlJSLWA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAZIp6E5uApwymLHJ4riaEV6QYQAz5nkYKo4EUicsoNEPsQaBoEUskwV6Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-right: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9CF4QESg7asjDhj0GXCerpoH9ibZW5HGQltobKviaGX5CiasvKozLxgwPA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">国铁National Rail </p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9gYzNJ6jQtVv05Qecv7Yhc53KTc7mXLvKJoSknibicuicJY3yIprba60Vw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: center;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">地铁DLR,TramLink</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-right: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9TO7DpgJ2esp6z1HKz1fa5BDdtKI9lf2ThoLiboKxRA17MKicAcAic3oRw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">道路网Highway</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9nCFL7A1IicicCKZnlMswEV3DJaBFPWlYU2qsygSibBoBsDqhss6zCPOyA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);text-align: center;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">公交网Bus</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.2 土地利用与交通互动模型LonLUTI</strong></p></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;">土地利用与交通互动模型LonLUTI(London Land-Use and Transport Interaction Model)是集成DELTA系统<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[20-21]</sup></strong></span>和CUBE的定制化土地交通模型，由英国DSC咨询公司(David Simmonds Consultancy)的Amy Fotheringham和Stanimira Georgieva开发维护。交通分析指南WebTAG认为DELTA系统具有鲁棒性和可靠性，具备实践应用的可操作性。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;">有趣的是，DELTA系统由DSC咨询公司、MVA咨询公司和利兹大学于1995-1996年开发完成初代模型，但其并未随MVA咨询公司的业务推广引入北京，而与其同期由UCL-CASA的Michael Batty和Xie Yichun开发的DUEM元胞自动机模型<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[22-23]</sup></strong></span>目前正在北京尝试应用<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[24]</sup></strong></span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;">此外，Michael Batty在2010-2015年由欧洲研究委员会ERC(European Research Council Advanced Award)资助的Mechanicity项目<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[25]</sup></strong></span>亦使用DELTA系统探索交通与土地的共生关系。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">LonLUTI模型由包含经济模型、城市模型和迁移模型的LonLUM模型和LTS交通模型共同构成。<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[26]</sup></strong></span>交通模型预测考虑拥堵与拥挤效果的居住地与就业地间的小汽车、公共交通方式的出行时间与成本；经济模型预测受交通模型出行成本影响的每个区域的经济增长或下滑情况和由城市模型输入的房地产成本影响的消费需求；城市模型预测受容积率供给、可达性和环境变量影响的居住选址与公司选址，家庭选址受工作地和生活服务的可达性影响，公司选址受潜在劳动力和消费者的可达性影响；迁移模型预测区域间的人口迁入迁出，其输入条件受城市模型的就业机遇和住房成本影响。</p><p style="text-align: center;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAQTlsBSeibic9udqmB8iatzMtEbVz7y6jQsEE2HHMKrm7iaSqwG2Rk5PuNA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVA04wCpNxSOaBZprIZDNAcK3ESvUJQpIHvIGP43hYsdysibW67ichaD86w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.3 轨道客流预测模型Railplan</strong></p></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;">轨道客流预测模型Railplan衍生于交通研究模型LTS，是不考虑出行分布和方式选择的公交分配模型，初始模型开发于1988年基于INRO公司的EMME平台，2015年由CITILABS公司的Filippo Contiero移植到CUBE平台。Railplan有别于传统轨道客流预测模型最大的特点在于脱离四阶段法的反馈循环过程，基于定期更新的需求矩阵采用拥挤模型进行分配，可以更快速、准确地研判高峰时段大客流对发车频率、换乘便捷度、接驳水平、票价票制等综合服务能力的反应。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">其网络模块共划分4100个交通小区，近3300个隶属大伦敦行政管辖范围；设置超过60000处站点出入口、候车站台、公交车站和道路交叉口和近20000条轨道路段；其公交模式包含地面公交Bus、国家铁路National Rail、地铁Underground、地上铁Overground、轻轨Docklands Light Railway和有轨电车Tramlink等6种方式。</p><p style="text-align: center;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAVYMmR8uLtEVC6IjqZI0L16745UKsoJT5COUHuyjA9dPzkqcicVeLjIQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAJJZ4Im60YhpsjWHVYV0X5lVX9LZKpiaejrL1sRicBRibb1bzS3jibaFung/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.4 道路网分配模型LoHAM</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">道路网分配模型LoHAM衍生于交通研究模型LTS，是不考虑出行分布和方式选择的道路分配模型，类似于国内的交通影响评价模型、信号优化模型和局部交通组织改善模型，2014年提出并计划于2019年4月执行的超低排放区ULEZ(Ultra Low Emission Zone)就是由其进行论证的<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[27]</sup></strong></span>。目前TFL正在开发平衡LoHAM和Railplan关系的LoRDM模型。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">LoHAM架构于ATKINS咨询公司和利兹大学交通研究所的SATURN平台<span style="color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><strong><sup>[28]</sup></strong></span>，初始模型开发于2008年，属于MCP(Major Count Programs)和CRISP(Continuous Road Side Interview Programme)两个项目的工作内容；2009年开发完成中心模型CLoHAM和北部模型NoLHAM，2010年开发完成西部模型WeLHAM、南部模型SoLHAM和东部模型ELHAM；2011年形成第一代模型HAM Production 1供地方机构、开发业主和咨询公司使用；2013年进一步细化网络、提升可靠性、提供辅助工具和标准输出，形成第二代模型HAM Production 2；2016年形成第三代模型HAM Production 3，并命名为LoHAM。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;"><br  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 5px;">其用户类型划分为通勤时段客运车辆、非通勤时段客运车辆、出租车、轻型货运车辆和其他货运车辆5种；分配网络包含近5200个交通小区、10.1万条路段、2.6万个仿真节点、3300个外部节点、4800个缓冲节点、5100个信号交叉口、1500个环岛和1.5万个让行交叉口。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.6;"></span></p><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVADwNgqR1mtQ14MVfvSlOYpJz5H4QiaRJTuQhcJmI6TnRHICo09Naeb6A/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAJkshic8xvflunNEf8NK68SUcicA2S30FN0EjLs797VpsPYFbhOP4CvDw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-align: center;line-height: 1.6;"></span><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;opacity: 0.6;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-left-width: 0.6em;border-left-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);border-top-width: 0.5em !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-top-color: transparent !important;border-bottom-width: 0.5em !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span> </section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1.2;padding-left: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.5 自行车网络模型Cynemon</strong></p></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-top: 10px;">自行车网络模型Cynemon独立于交通研究模型LTS，2015年由CITILABS公司的Vipul Modi开发。对Cynemon的详细介绍及北京的实践经验将在后续专题《自行车需求模型：转变“预测+供给”范式》中深入讨论。</p><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVAFyvqMpJ6nicbbEZu4QyZOhibLOuJ0E0jkmYo5iaho2DnGQaWpYqrTlzaA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eNLLRqvsgTwlaQlBGq4qYVA6mYTeIfvemj4cKx104qTVDLkPeyHUWdibbPT3tUF59mD0icMCmiagMXMA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-right: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9wxdic5osNRommKpnCYyHPbgSnM8AgzQD6tOdGuySYxUVAZl0iacDbcsQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 50%;padding-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9ib0bib1GlaadY5o8NngQSMrNZh9f547oXsWianlHgpP7ubuJuVVEAGh0g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/icKFe0wqE4eOZqj2iaDA3h0nj3XBQvuBt9kX8gNTKtNsqhesaoQy8aKYpTV5AuGzM3uj7cU6rRAocpVKzQd5IAZg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;">参考文献</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(178, 178, 178);"><em>[1] 郭继孚, 殷丽. 交通规划模型在金融街交通分析中的应用 [J]. 北京规划建设, 1995, 4: 55-57.</em></span></p><p style="box-sizing: 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