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<section style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84P8zeZwTL2NuXqRzbPW1Q0A049iaicPFlgdGembxA1arej2LqgNhy1rqw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 15px 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding-right: 1px;padding-left: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);padding: 3px 5px;line-height: 1.6;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">导</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">读</p></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 85%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(97, 182, 204);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">作为城市空间形态的重要维度，容积率对居民能耗的影响向来是节能形态研究领域关注的重点。现有文献大都在微观层面以数个住区为样本、考察一个或几个城市内部居住小区容积率对居民能耗的影响，鲜有从城市整体层面考察城市居住用地平均容积率对居民能耗的影响。本文将从节能的视角探讨城市居住用地的最优容积率。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><blockquote><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文为“2017中国城市规划年会”宣讲论文</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">作者：解扬，北京清华同衡规划设计研究院遗产研究中心历史城市保护发展研究一所</p></blockquote></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 33px 0% 3px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(7, 99, 151);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">— 简介 —</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市空间形态与能源效率，尤其是居民能耗之间的关系在最近二十多年来日益受到包括城市规划学者在内的城市空间研究学者们的关注。作为城市空间形态的一个重要表征维度，密度（Density）被Cervero纳入其著名的3D理论中，形成了空间形态与居民能耗研究领域最重要的理论基石。在城市规划领域，密度主要指单位土地面积上各类空间要素如人口、资本、道路、建筑物等的数量，密度维度可以对应多个具体指标，如人口密度（对应人口要素）、经济密度（对应资本要素）、路网密度（对应道路要素）以及容积率（对应建筑要素）等。其中容积率是我国现行控规指标体系中的核心指标之一，因此<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">探讨容积率与居民能耗的关系对于把低碳城市研究成果应用到低碳城市规划中具有最直接的意义</span>。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">虽然已有大量研究表明密度维度与居民能耗存在直接关联，但是（1）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">绝大部分的研究是以西方国家城市为基础的</span>，基于中国城市的数据研究甚少；（2）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">以家庭或个人为研究对象的微观研究数量占绝对优势</span>，以城市为个体的宏观研究数量相对少得可怜；（3）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">宏观研究中密度维度的表征指标通常都是人口密度</span>，相对而言城市平均容积率由于获取的困难很少被考察。城市是一个复杂系统已经日益成为学术界的共识，微观个体层面的结论不能简单推广到宏观城市层面。因此<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">有必要以我国城市为研究对象，考察城市层面的居住用地平均容积率与居民能耗之间的实证关系</span>，来探究从节能角度出发，城市整体层面是否存在最优的容积率区间，对应着最优的建设强度区间。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 33px 0% 3px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(7, 99, 151);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 16.384px;box-sizing: border-box;">— 文献与假设 —</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">整理目前相关研究，容积率对居民能耗的影响主要集中在<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">居民交通能耗</span>和<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">居民用电能耗</span>两块。相对而言，居民用气能耗、居民供暖能耗与形态关系不大。因此接下来的文献回顾分成两部分，分别总结容积率对居民交通能耗、居民用电能耗的影响路径，并提出相应的理论模型。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1）容积率对居民交通能耗的影响</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">有关容积率（密度）与居民出行的关系一直是城市研究和交通研究领域的热点问题。在微观层面现有研究普遍认为高密度紧凑型住区有助于通过以下两种方式降低居民出行能耗。第一，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">高密度住区能够拉近出行目的地和起始地之间的距离<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">，</span></span>从而鼓励短距离的步行出行，抑制机动车出行。第二，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">紧凑型住区具有的更好的公交服务、更少停车空间、更高土地利用混合度以及更大比例低收入住户等因素都能够降低机动车出行比例<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></span>从Ewing和Cervero的集萃分析来看，密度类指标更多地是通过对其他建成环境指标如设施可达性、土地混合度等来影响居民出行的，<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">密度类指标对居民出行的直接影响并没有其他建成环境指标的影响大</span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在宏观层面人口密度对居民出行能耗的负向影响已被大量实证研究证实（即人口密度越高的城市居民出行能耗越低）。影响最大的当属Newman和Kenworthy（1989）基于全球32个城市的研究，他们发现城市人口密度越高的城市人均汽油消耗量越低。然而后续研究对此有不少质疑，认为在同一大洲内城市人口密度差距不大，密度和交通能耗的关系便不那么显著。Cameron等（2003，2004）对全球近50个城市的分析表明高密度城市内居民私家车出行里程数会比较小。姚胜永与潘海啸（2009）根据全球范围近百个城市的数据同样得出了高密度有利于交通节能的结论。然而也有研究指出过高的人口密度条件（因为严重的交通拥堵）反而使得居民出行能耗变高。仔细观察可以发现城市人口密度在全球范围内的差距是十分明显的，亚洲城市的人口密度显著高于美国、澳大利亚等依赖小汽车出行的城市。<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">基于西方国家的实证研究结论都表明人口密度高的城市居民出行能耗低；但基于亚洲国家的研究对高密度是否会降低居民交通能耗仍然存在争议</span>。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84mia6HtADxRCTKnYWoPdul3IuZUBiaxaGiblrHy9Mt1k8dXqkupfxag5ng/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">容积率影响居民交通能耗的理论路径，资料来源：作者整理绘制</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">梳理以上文献，可以总结出容积率对居民交通能耗同时存在着正反两方面的影响。（1）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">高容积率有助于拉近出行出发地与目的地的距离</span><span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">，有利于公交模式发展，从而有效降低居民</span>交通能耗。（2）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">与此同时高容积率可能带来更严重的拥挤</span>，使得居民出行时间更长，速度更慢，百公里油耗更大。像美国、澳大利亚城市那种过低的容积率情形下，适当提高容积率有助于降低居民交通能耗；相反像东亚国家这样容积率很高的情形下，适当降低容积率反而会降低居民交通能耗。于是我们不禁猜想，容积率与居民交通能耗之间是否存在U型曲线关系？随着容积率变大，居民人均交通能耗会先降低再升高，也就意味着<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">从居民交通能耗角度出发，存在着最优容积率</span>。现有研究普遍证实城市经济发展水平（相对而言人均财政收入比人均GDP对居民交通能耗影响更大）和城市规模（通常以城市建成区面积表征）对居民交通能耗有着显著影响，因此这里<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">以居民人均交通能耗为被解释变量，以人均财政收入、城市建成区面积为控制变量，把城市平均容积率的一次项和二次项放入到解释变量中</span>，构建如下的理论模型：</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84iaY5ibn017jJWq2DLhxSQuP5CkWgrvj06rFQaXKSjZVmZdQv66gpaHdg/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">Et为城市居民人均交通能耗，REV为人均财政收入，AREA为城市建成区面积，FAR为城市居住用地平均容积率，Sqr_FAR为城市居住用地平均容积率的二次项，σ为回归方程的随机误差项。能耗数据使用自然对数值是为了消除异方差性。由之前的分析可以推测，如果容积率与居民交通能耗之间存在U型曲线关系，那么β3的数值应该小于0，β4<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的数值应该大于0。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2）容积率对居民用电能耗的影响</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">密度维度（容积率）对居民生活能耗的影响主要通过Ewing和Rong理论模型中的后两者——住宅类型不同导致能耗的差别以及城市热岛效应导致的取暖与制冷环境的差别。（1）对于住宅类型的区别，低密度城市中的居民更加倾向选择独栋大户型住宅，而<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">居民生活能耗与人均住宅面积有着非常直接的正向关联</span>，因此<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">低密度城市的居民人均生活能耗会比较高</span>。（2）高密度城市的热岛效应一般比低密度城市更强，因此<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">高密度城市制冷能耗更高的同时取暖能耗更低</span>，但<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">制冷能耗与取暖能耗叠加的总效果是增加还是减少仍然要靠具体数据的计算</span>。Lee and Lee的实证研究通过结构方程建模（SEM）给出了密度影响居住能耗的具体路径。研究指出在125个全美最大城市中人口密度增加10%会导致居民生活能耗降低3.5%。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F846z8XialEKUqaNlHEkMhTIhWDxBTsiackP7ibGAWib6bibRoCAalTgu4LASQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市形态影响居民生活能耗的三个途径，资料来源：根据文献改绘</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">需要注意的是Ewing和Rong和Lee and Lee的研究是基于北美城市所得到的结论，一些基于其他地区城市的实证研究得到的结论与之大相径庭。比如Makido等人以50个日本城市为例的研究显示，单中心城市过高的密度会导致居民生活能耗变高。高密度城市中居住建筑设计的采光和通风等方面的灵活性受限，可能导致居民生活能耗升高。同时东亚地区居住文化与北美明显不同，比如中国城市基本以集合住宅为主，因此密度差别对居民住宅选择的影响可能微乎其微。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">考虑到中国城市供暖能耗主要是由集中供暖系统提供，是不包括在用电能耗中的，因此<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">我国城市居民用电能耗主要是指制冷能耗及其他家用电器的使用</span>。所以类似居民交通能耗，容积率对我国城市居民用电能耗的影响也有可能是两方面的：（1）一方面<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">容积率过低可能对应的情形是城市内别墅、联排住宅等大户型住宅产品的比重较高</span>，这种情形下<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">居民用电能耗由于人均居住面积较大而变得很高</span>。（2）另一方面如果<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">容积率过高会导致城市热岛效应更强，居民夏季的制冷需求会变得更大，因此也会产生更高的用电能耗</span>。所以理论上容积率和居民用电能耗之间也可能存在着U型曲线，即存在一个适当的容积率，其对应的居民用电能耗是最低的。现有研究普遍证实城市经济发展水平（通常以人均GDP表征）、城市规模（通常以城市建成区面积表征）和城市气候特征（以年平均气温表征）对居民用电能耗有着显著影响，因此这里<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">以居民人均用电能耗为被解释变量，以人均GDP、城市建成区面积为控制变量，把城市平均容积率的一次项和二次项放入到解释变量中</span>，构建如下的理论模型：</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84ibEBZzmsiahGofsib2zSM7PdRCGCtMgGMOXKa9xMO1Ljh05EM0N1GuqyA/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ee为城市居民人均用电能耗，GDP为人均GDP，AREA为城市建成区面积，TEMP为城市年平均气温，FAR为城市居住用地平均容积率，Sqr_FAR为城市居住用地平均容积率的二次项，σ为回归方程的随机误差项。能耗数据使用自然对数值是为了消除异方差性。由之前的分析可以推测，如果容积率与居民用电能耗之间存在U型曲线关系，那么β4的数值应该小于0，β5的数值应该大于0。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 33px 0% 3px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(7, 99, 151);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 16.384px;box-sizing: border-box;">— 数据准备 —</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1）居民能耗的计算</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">城市级别的能耗数据在政府的公开资料中并没有直接公布，因此一般需<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">要通过估算方法获取</span>。2006年IPCC《温室气体排放清单指南》中给出了两大类自下而上的人均能耗核算方法：<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">分部门的核算方法</span>和<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">基于能源表观消费量的核算方法</span>。在中国，各种能源表观消费量信息一般只细分到省一级，城市层面只有省会城市才有数据，所以本文<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">采用分部门的核算方法选取2009年的城市居民直接能耗进行估算</span>，篇幅所限，具体方法参见笔者之前发表的文献。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2）容积率的计算</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">密度维度的研究一般以人口密度作为常用指标，但也有不少研究采用地块容积率作为表征密度的指标，因为在现有的城市规划体系中，容积率作为表征建设强度的重要指标直接出现在总规、控规等各个层面的空间规划中。本文这里就<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">采用容积率作为表征密度维度的指标</span>，由于本文主要是探讨居民能耗，因此这里<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">考察城市居住用地的平均容积率</span>，其计算公式如下（等式中应用到的数据都来源于2009年《中国城市建设统计年鉴》）：</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F844sFfQ51P3V7uHMhp4IMfYHsvFtJJlZGdwiavfPAw7ibgc2FouVTYPOQg/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">需要注意的是，<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">等式最右边的分子理论上应该是 “<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市居住用地总建筑面积/城市人口</span>”，而人均住宅建筑面积的含义是“<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市住宅建筑面积/城市人口</span>”，二者之间是有差别的，前者比后者大，因为城市居住用地上还有很多</span>非住宅建筑，如商业配套、幼儿园、中小学等，所以导致这里<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">计算得到的城市居住用地平均容积率要比实际数值偏小</span>。这在目前的数据条件下也是无奈之举。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3）其他控制变量的获取</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">前文两个理论方程中其他的控制变量：（1）人均财政收入、人均GDP自于2010年《中国区域经济统计年鉴》。（2）城市建成区面积来源于2009年《中国城市建设统计年鉴》。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 33px 0% 3px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(7, 99, 151);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 16.384px;box-sizing: border-box;">— 回归分析与讨论 —</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1）容积率与居民交通能耗的回归分析</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">首先以我国286个地级以上城市为样本，通过回归分析验证理论方程。结果下表显示，对我国286个地级以上城市来说，城市居住用地容积率与居民人均交通能耗之间存在U型曲线关系，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">当容积率约等于1.01时，对应的居民人均交通能耗最低</span>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">容积率对居民交通能耗有两方面的影响。一方面，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">高密度发展模式可以拉近出行目的地和出发地之间的距离</span>，提升各种设施的可达性，从而减少出行距离，鼓励步行、自行车等适合短距离的低碳出行方式，也有利于公共交通的开展。另一方面，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">高容积率城市交通拥堵状况可能更严重</span>，使得居民出行时间更长，速度更慢，百公里油耗更大，从而使得居民交通能耗更高。因此总体上<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">容积率与居民交通能耗呈现U型曲线关系</span>。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84Il8uknck5VRS8aadSSqSEjO5CfqlmW7fYfzx7P1dEQ5uVUb9b5FcZQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市居住用地平均容积率与居民人均交通能耗的回归关系图解，资料来源：作者绘制</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">关于这个最优容积率值1.01，可以这样解释。（1）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">我国城市新区的建设强度标注大致是1万人/平方公里</span>。（2）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">我国286个地级以上城市目前居住用地比重是32.1%，人均住宅建筑面积的均值是30.7㎡</span>。（3）根据以上两个数字，对我国286个地级以上城市而言，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">1万人/平方公里的建成区密度对应容积率在0.956左右</span>（从均值角度讲，1平方公里的土地面积中，居住用地面积是1×32.1%=0.321k㎡=321000㎡，1万人的居住建筑面积大约是10000×30.7=307000㎡，因此容积率是307000/321000=0.956）。（4）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">1.01的最优容积率可以说和1万人/平方公里的发展强度在本质上是相差不大的</span>，此处的结论从交通节能的角度验证了1万人/平方公里这一惯常的新区发展强度的科学性。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84TQlYxGWicfA8HYF69uoYFq7dYictKunkIwzyUbZmuLVwylClWjzrB6qw/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;margin-bottom: -10px;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-top: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-right: 5px solid transparent !important;border-bottom: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);padding: 3px 10px;text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2）容积率与居民用电能耗的回归分析</strong></p></section><section style="width: 0px;margin-top: -10px;margin-left: auto;transform: rotate(0deg);-webkit-transform: rotate(0deg);-moz-transform: rotate(0deg);-o-transform: rotate(0deg);border-right: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top: 5px solid transparent !important;border-left: 5px solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">接下来通过回归分析验证理论方程。以我国286个地级以上城市为样本，方程中容积率的一次项和二次项都没有通过检验。根据类似研究的经验，可能是因为不同规模城市在性质上存在很大差异，放在一起分析致使一些显著的结论被掩盖掉。为此这里<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">按照城市规模对286个样本城市进行分组研究</span>，按照市区常住人口（1）<50万、（2）50-100万、（3）100-200万、（4）200-500万和（5）>500万分成5组，结果发现<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">对于200-500万大城市组，城市居住用地平均容积率大约在0.995时，居民人均用电能耗是最低的</span>。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F84ycYogn1u4SZsHo80zlmHebHeDYO5KcEfVLG4EjeQTXSIgKctiakKEKg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市居住用地平均容积率与居民人均用电能耗的回归关系图解，资料来源：作者绘制</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">关于这个最优容积率值0.995，可以这样解释。（1）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">我国城市新区的建设强度标注大致是1万人/平方公里</span>。（2）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">我国200-500万大城市目前居住用地比重均值是30.7%，人均住宅建筑面积的均值是35.1㎡</span>。（3）根据以上两个数字，对200-500万大城市而言，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">1万人/平方公里的建成区密度对应容积率在1.14左右</span>（从均值角度讲，1平方公里的土地上，居住用地面积是1×30.7%=0.307k㎡=307000㎡，1万人的居住建筑面积大约是10000×35.1=351000㎡，容积率是351000/307000=1.14）。（4）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">用电能耗最低对应的最优容积率0.995和1万人/平方公里的建成区密度从本质上来说基本相符</span>，因此此处的结论又从用电能耗的角度验证了1万人/平方公里这一惯常的新区发展强度的科学性。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0% 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/raykBSCslW7VibD5WtSf0GNV8B9PT5F844iaIpEsTvELia7SoYuuq1ga2yQ023CoZYCekNgKnpuPs1ujglzLAIpnA/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 33px 0% 3px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);width: 1.8em;height: 1.8em;line-height: 1.8em;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">5</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(7, 99, 151);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="line-height: 16.384px;box-sizing: border-box;">— 总结与讨论 —</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">由以上对城市居住用地平均容积率与居民用电能耗、居民交通能耗的回归分析，可以得出的结论是：<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">对我国目前城市而言，城市居住用地平均容积率和居民用电能耗、居民交通能耗之间都存在U型曲线关系</span>，即从节能角度讲，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">存在一个最优的城市居住用地平均容积率，这个最优容积率的数值恰好和1万人/平方公里的我国新区建设强度标准相对应</span>。这样的结果从节能的侧面验证了1万人/平方公里的我国新区建设强度标准的科学合理性。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">最后需要再次强调的是，由于已有数据条件的缺陷，本文使用的“城市居住用地平均容积率”这一数值要比真实值偏低，这里需要对本文得出结论的可信度进行探讨。（1）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">城市居住用地平均容积率与居民交通能耗、用电能耗之间存在的U型曲线关系</span>，作为趋势性的结论是可以肯定的，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">受“城市居住用地平均容积率”数据缺陷的影响不大</span>。（2）<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">节能角度最优容积率与1万人/平方公里的新区发展强度在本质上相对应这一结论</span>，由于是在同一套数据体系下推算得到的，因此也是可以基本肯定的，<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">受数据缺陷的影响同样不大</span>。（3）由于各个城市的居住用地平均容积率都比真实值偏低，因此这里计算得出的<span style="color: rgb(255, 76, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">节能视角最优容积率数值应该也比真实值偏低</span>。至于偏低多少，还要等待未来数据条件改善时进行进一步的深入探讨。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section><p><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5JWf40xeYA37ovvAJYd9qNGy2Vbs8eb4U0IUryP1Lk6jqNSYrT3RkwiaYVibCKIEsNpXTicFUuoFBibg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p>
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