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<section style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miauWSZ69lcB3JebRia6WMTUd7lDiaQA2poIfBibkxp8eYAMpa4ecGCZGicYZDL8oMX6AbF8EnvKVYLDJA/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 70%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(153, 166, 171);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;">欢迎点击以上蓝色字体</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关注</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0miauWSZ69lcB3JebRia6WMTUd7lDiaQA2poIfBibkxp8eYAMpa4ecGCZGicYZDL8oMX6AbF8EnvKVYLDJA/0?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(254, 193, 192);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 5px 0px;clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者中山大学地理科学与规划学院、综合地理信息研究中心博士研究生姜超，中山大学地理科学与规划学院、美国辛辛那提大学地理系教授、博士生导师柳林，中山大学地理科学与规划学院教授、博士生导师周素红，中山大学地理科学与规划学院、综合地理信息研究中心硕士研究生杜方叶在《规划师》2017年第8期撰文，<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为科学客观地回答“封闭住宅小区开放后是否会增加犯罪”这一问题，对关于封闭住区与犯罪案件之间关系的国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">际实证性研究进行了分析与整理，并基于环境犯罪学理论，阐述了犯罪者与封闭住区之间的作用机制、住区安全感知误区及</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其形成原因、住区开放背景下的有效犯罪防控策略等内容。国际案例实证结果和环境犯罪理论剖析均表明，封闭住区并不能</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">显著地降低犯罪被害率，即封闭住区内未必会更安全。对住区内居民异质性的忽略、对犯罪发生机理理解的欠缺，以及相关</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">利益群体的诱导，导致“社区安全性”与“居民安全感”之间不匹配，从而产生“封闭住区能减少犯罪”的广泛误解。研究</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">结果可为我国的城市规划建设管理工作提供科学的犯罪防控借鉴。</span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(42, 118, 162);float: right;margin-top: -6px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section class="" style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 关键词]封闭住区；开放；犯罪；国外情境；环境犯罪学；犯罪地理学<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文章编号 ]1006-0022(2017)08-0105-07　</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 中图分类号 ]TU984.11 + 9　</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文献标识码 ]B<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  />[ 引文格式 ]<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">姜超，柳林，周素红，等．住区开放与犯罪：国外情境下的实证评估与理论剖析[J]．规划师，2017(8)：105-</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">111．</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/IRfqU8qQmeye1ynx0ARQ6vCckvNllrDIYO7AZHD19icqpic8qdmreUPYndrNrIwybDKulicq7qbtxXVO85qQ8shCw/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一  <span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;"></span>  </strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 封闭住区与犯罪关系的国外实证</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性研究</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在国外，“封闭住宅小区”通常被称<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为“门禁社区”(Gated Community)，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">是指“限制非居民访问或者需要入口</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">密码、钥匙卡或保安人员批准才可进入</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的社区” 。基于 Web of Science、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Scopus、Springer、JSTOR 和 Sage</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Journal Online 等电子数据库、以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Gated Community和Crime为关键</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">词进行论文检索，获取与封闭住区和犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪相关的研究文献。通过对文献检索结</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">果进行甄别后发现，大部分文献属于定</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性的理论研究，而在所获取的实证性研</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">究中，聚焦于“犯罪恐惧感”(Fear of</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Crime)和“安全感” (Perception o f</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Safety，Feeling of Safety)等居民主观</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">感受的文献则又占了绝大多数。排除以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上两部分文献后，本文聚焦于封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与由客观犯罪案件所反映的“安全性”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">之间关系的实证性研究。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当前对封闭住区和犯罪案件的研<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">究主要集中在南非和美国。在南非，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Durington对德班市的Springfield Hills封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区进行了人类学调查研究，通过对</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">居民的深入访谈后发现，封闭住区对真</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">实犯罪情况的影响效果并不明显</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">另外2项分别采用区位商和多元线性回</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">归的定量研究中，针对南非茨瓦内市的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">88个封闭住区，以非封闭住区为控制单</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">元，依赖于警察局提供的犯罪记录数据，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Breetzke等人较为一致地发现，封闭住</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区与非封闭住区中的入室盗窃密度有显</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">著差别，封闭住区内会有更多的入室盗</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">窃案件</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。在美国，Wilson-Doenges</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在洛杉矶市的高收入组和低收入组中分</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">别选择了一个封闭住区与非封闭住区，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">针对这四个社区进行了邮件问卷调查，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">通过方差分析和Z统计检验后发现，无</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">论是在高收入还是低收入的状况下，封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区与非封闭住区内的总体犯罪率并</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">没有统计上的显著区别</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">迄今为止，较为全面且更具说服<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">力的是依赖于美国“全国犯罪被害调</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">查 ”(National Crime Victimization </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Survey， 以下简称“NCVS”) 的两项</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">定量统计研究</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。美国“全国犯罪被</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">害调查”是美国司法统计局资助的最大</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">型调研项目，旨在弥补警局犯罪记录的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">不足，较为全面地把握美国的犯罪被害</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">情况，同时收集犯罪被害者的相关属性</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">信息。这项调查每6个月实施一次，每</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">年进行两次，在全国范围内，采用分层</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">多阶段分组抽样方式，对大约48000个</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住户中12周岁以上的成员进行调查</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在调查问卷中，通过设置问题来询问被</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">访者是否居住在封闭住区之中，其中“封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区”的定义既包含了由多栋建筑组</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成的、具有围墙的封闭住区，也包含了</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由独栋建筑组成的、具有楼梯口控制的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。2009 ～ 2010 年的 NCVS</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">数据中，总被访者覆盖 198175 户，其</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中居住在封闭住区的比例为11.1％。据</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">此，Addinton 和 Rennison 采用二元</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">逻辑回归分析后发现，在控制了居住时</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间、家庭收入、地理区位和个体属性后，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区能够显著地降低入室盗窃被害</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">率</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。然而，他们的研究至少存在以下</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">两方面的缺陷：①只有 1.3％的调查样</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">本经历了入室盗窃，因此因变量呈现出</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">严重的偏态分布，这会对二元逻辑回归</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的模型估计结果造成影响。②尽管控制</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">了多种社会—经济—个体因素的影响，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">但是没有考虑到封闭住区与非封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的安防设施投入差异，也没有考虑到不</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">同社区内的非正式控制程度差异。由于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在模型估计和概念框架层面上的不足，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者指出对该研究结果的解读需要特别</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">谨慎。与该研究相类似，Branic的定量</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究则克服了以上两点缺陷</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。基于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2009年NCVS数据中的102104户样本，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Branic在仔细区分并度量了社区内不同</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">安保力量来源之后，分别采用了传统的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">二元逻辑回归和较为高级的稀有事件逻</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">辑回归模型进行分析，发现封闭住区对</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">入室盗窃、盗窃机动车、财产犯罪的被</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">害率均没有统计上的显著影响</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">此外，根据英国副首相办公厅<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新地平线项目 (ODPM New Horizons </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Program)中关于封闭住区的一项全国</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性调研和英国科学院资助的一项小型项</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">目，针对“英国国内封闭住区防控犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的有效性”问题，Blandy 在分析访谈</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和调研资料后认为，封闭住区并不能有</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">效地回应当前的犯罪问题</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">总体来看，尽管封闭住区和犯罪案<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">件关系的实证性研究文献数量很少，但</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其中既有针对单个封闭住区的人类学研</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">究</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，也有覆盖数十个乃至数千个社区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的定量统计研究</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">；所采用的犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">数据既包括官方的犯罪案件记录</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">也包括非官方的犯罪被害调查</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">、访</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">谈</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">等。鉴于这些研究的结论具有较高</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的一致性，即“封闭住区并不能显著地</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">降低犯罪被害率”，该结论应该具有相</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当的可靠性。然而，对该结果的解读也</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">必须指明的是：①该结论是基于实际案</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">例所得到的概率统计学结果，是针对封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区总体的经验性结论。在当前仅有</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的少量研究中，大多对封闭住区进行了</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">统一定义，而并没有细分其具体类型，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因而并不能做出“单个封闭住区必然不</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">能降低犯罪率”的结论。②已有的研究</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成果均是在国外城市情境中产生的。在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中国的城市情境中，这一结论是否成立，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">仍然有待进一步的实证研究。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/IRfqU8qQmeye1ynx0ARQ6vCckvNllrDIYO7AZHD19icqpic8qdmreUPYndrNrIwybDKulicq7qbtxXVO85qQ8shCw/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;padding: 3px 0px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(224, 224, 224);border-right-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 0px 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二      </strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区与犯罪关系的环境犯罪</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">学理论剖析</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 3px solid rgb(249, 110, 87);border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(249, 110, 87);border-right-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-left-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 0px 8px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）相关的基础理论与概念</p></section><section style="margin-top: -8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关于“封闭住区能减少犯罪”的<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">论断，最重要的理论基础是 C. Ray </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Jeffery在1971年提出的“环境设计预</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">防犯罪”(Crime Prevention Through </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Environmental Design，简称“CPTED”)</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">理论</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和 Oscar Newman 在 1972</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">年提出的“可防卫空间”(Defensible </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Space)理论</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，二者都认为，通过环</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">境规划与设计来强化住区边界的存在，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">可以大大减少外部人员的社区可进入</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性，从而实现犯罪的预防与控制。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">然而，这两大理论自诞生以来就受<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">到了犯罪学者、特别是环境犯罪学者的猛</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">烈抨击，如没有区分犯罪类型(熟人/陌</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生人犯罪)；理论假设犯罪是由“外部</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪者”(Outsider)实施的，而忽略了“内</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">部犯罪者”(Insider)的存在；理论所重</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">视的设计要素并不是犯罪者实际决策过</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">程中所关注的主要因素（来自犯罪者访</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">谈后的发现)等</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。由于在概念上的缺</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">陷及缺乏实证的支持，Newman 本人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">很快就摒弃了他的大部分研究内容</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由于不仅涉及到物质空间的环境设计，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">也涉及到社会空间的氛围培育，CPTED</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">理论得到拓展，但其侧重点已经超越了</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“可防卫空间”理论的物质环境设计内</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">容</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。之所以会受到如此猛烈的抨击，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关键就在于这两大理论对犯罪者行为、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪案件产生机理的理解都过于简单化</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">了。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当前对犯罪发生机理的经典解释是<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来自于环境犯罪学的三大理论与相关概</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">念。其中，理性选择理论认为，犯罪者</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">是具有有限理性的，会对潜在的收益、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成本、风险和难易程度等进行相对理</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性的评估与判断</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。从犯罪生态视角</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">看，犯罪案件的产生需要满足三方面的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">条件：有动机的犯罪者、合适的犯罪目</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">标和有效防护力量的缺失。当满足这三</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">方面的条件之后，犯罪案件就有可能发</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。因此，日常活动理论认为，对</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">于特定地方来说，潜在犯罪者、适宜作</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">案目标和无效防护力量之间交互作用的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">频次，基本上决定了这个区域内的犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">水平</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。进一步的犯罪分布理论认为，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪者会围绕着居住地、工作地和娱乐</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地等少量的节点场所来开展日常活动，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由此形成自己的“认知地图”，并在其</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中理性地选择合适的作案区域和作案目</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">标</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。此外，研究表明，犯罪者可以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分为“外部犯罪者 (Outsiders)”和“内</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">部犯罪者 (Insiders)”两种类型</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。居</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住在社区外部的潜在犯罪者，被称为“外</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">部犯罪者 ”；居住在社区内部的潜在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪者，被称为“内部犯罪者 ”。犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪者类型的区分，对于理解社区安全性</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">至关重要。</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 3px solid rgb(249, 110, 87);border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(249, 110, 87);border-right-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-left-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 0px 8px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区与犯罪者之间的可能</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作用机制</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: -8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在明确了犯罪发生的相关概念与理<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">论之后，将通过对犯罪者作案选择和犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪行为过程的具体剖析，阐述封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与犯罪者之间的作用机制，从而说明“封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区并不能显著地降低犯罪被害率”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的具体原因。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 封闭住区会对犯罪者产生较强<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的目标诱惑。在搜寻作案目标时，潜在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的“外部犯罪者”会对在移动过程中所</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">看到的物理环境进行理性的判断，从而</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">选择和确定合适的目标区域。封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">所拥有的围墙和门禁，往往是这些住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">内具有高价值物质财产的符号化表征，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因此会引起潜在“外部犯罪者”的特别</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">注意，促使他们选择该类住区作为适宜</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的目标区域</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。由于在封闭住区内所得</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">到的收入回报会相对较高，潜在的“外</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">部犯罪者”很可能会选择房屋租赁的方</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">式转化为“内部犯罪者”，以减少作案</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">时的阻力。此外，按照“犯罪机会理论”，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">每个人都是潜在的犯罪者，封闭住区内</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的居民也可能会被诱惑，成为“内部犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪者”。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 封闭住区的“技术性”安防措<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">施对“外部犯罪者”的威慑作用较弱。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区主要通过提供围墙、门禁和私</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人保安等“技术性”手段来预防犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">然而，现有研究表明，至少存在3种途<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">径会使这些“技术性”手段的预期威慑</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作用大打折扣：①封闭住区的空间范围</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">较大，所使用的围墙或围栏普遍较长且</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">高度较低。在没有保安看护的住区边界</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">处，潜在的“外部犯罪者”很容易翻越</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">围墙、进入住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。②潜在“外部犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">者”可以通过“身份伪装”的方式进入</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住区。“身份伪装”有很多种，如通过</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尾随的方式假扮居民、通过更换服装和</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">携带道具的方式假扮快递员、装修工等。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">③“每个人都知道密码”。由于住区居</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">民不注意，潜在“外部犯罪者”可以通</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">过观察居民出入、诱骗询问儿童、探亲、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">访友与帮工等多种途径获取门禁密码。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">总体来看，对于遵纪守法的公民来说，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区的“技术性”安防措施会发挥</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">出预期的作用；而对于具有强烈犯罪动</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">机、高度适应能力的犯罪者来说，这些</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“技术性”手段往往会失去它们预期的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">威慑效果。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3)封闭住区会降低住区内部的“社<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">会性”安防力量。由于对封闭住区安全</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性的普遍误解，封闭住区内的居民会过</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分依赖于“愚蠢”的“技术性”安防措</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">施，从而产生盲目的安全感</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。这至</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">少会带来两方面的负作用：①居民降低</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪预防的警惕性，如可能会减少对住</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区内陌生人的关注，减少对个人财产物</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">品的防护等；②居民缺乏采用主动的、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">创新的犯罪防控手段的驱动力。总而言</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">之，这些都意味着，当潜在犯罪者进入</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区之后所面临的“社会性”非正</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">式防控力量（Informal Control) 会大大</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">减弱。而这些非正式的防控力量恰恰是</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">已经被广泛证实、能够减少犯罪案件的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">有效途径</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(4)封闭住区会提高“内部犯罪者”<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与被害目标的交互频率。通常情况下，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区所建设的围墙或围栏，有助于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增强居民的社区认同感，导致居民在封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区内的停留时间会相对延长</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">表面来看，这是一种非常积极的良好现<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">象。但是，对于“内部犯罪者”来说，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">居住社区也是其日常活动中最主要的节</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">点场所之一，同时封闭住区内部的犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">防控力量又是非常薄弱的。因此，封闭</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住区会大大增加“内部犯罪者”、潜在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">被害目标和无效防控力量的交互作用频</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">率，这也就意味着封闭住区内的犯罪案</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">件发生概率会大大增加。一个比较极端</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的例子是：2012 年下半年，一个名叫</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Trayvon Martin的非洲裔美国人，在封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区内被同社区居民枪击致死，由此</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">引发了对封闭住区内部犯罪者和安保设</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">施过度使用的反思</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">综合以上四点来看，对于大部分的<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区来说，它不仅对“外部犯罪者”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">产生的实际威慑作用较弱，而且可能会</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">吸引潜在的犯罪者，甚至可能会为“外</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">部犯罪者”和“内部犯罪者”提供实施</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪行为的便利及掩护条件(图1)。封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区与犯罪者之间的这种作用机制，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">已经在相关的国际实证研究结果中得到</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">了印证，其直接结果是“封闭住区内未</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">必会更安全”。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaPm2SIt2c0qbDiawdgqW05CGGecNCDpCgChyRhOuhF6K0OqMumWrsjIN32HV7fVUNxFjAKSaibDcJg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span><br  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section class="" style="border-top: 3px solid rgb(249, 110, 87);border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(249, 110, 87);border-right-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);border-left-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 0px 8px;font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住区安全性的感知误区及其</span>形成原因</p></section><section style="margin-top: -8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="float: left;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="float: right;width: 3px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管诸多实证研究都相继表明“封<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区并不能显著地减少犯罪被害率”，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">但是“减少犯罪、增加安全”仍然是封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区迅速发展的最正当理由之一。综</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">合已有的实证与理论研究可知，之所以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">会产生“封闭住区内会更安全”的感知</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">误区，主要是因为“安全性”和“安全</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">感”之间并不一定是相互吻合的。在以</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下4类因素的作用下，在危险的居住环</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">境中，居民也可以具有较高的“安全感”。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 社会资本的增加，凸显了公民<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对安全居住社区的诉求。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">保障个人的财产与生命安全，是人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">类社会的基本诉求。随着社会经济的进</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">步与发展，具有足够资本积累的公民数</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">量逐渐增多，整个社会对安全住区的总</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">体要求也逐步提高。在这种背景下，封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区以它所提供的门禁、围墙和私人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">保安等诸多的“技术性”安防措施为特</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">色，打出了“安全住区”的旗号，与公</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">民的强烈安全诉求相呼应</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 相关利益群体的营销宣传，强<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化了社会的犯罪恐惧氛围。与封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">相关的利益群体非常多，主要包括房地</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">产商、私人保安公司、安保设备公司、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">媒体甚至部分政府等，被西方学者称为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“犯罪恐惧产业链”  。这些相关的利</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">益群体出于推销产品、工作压力和营造</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">政绩等各方面原因，组织了非常广泛的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">宣传活动，在世界范围内的很多地方都</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">制造出了一种强烈的犯罪恐惧氛围，促</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">使公众盲目地“购买安全”。在南非，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这一现象尤为明显</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。在“减少犯罪、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增加安全”这一旗帜掩护下，这些利益</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">群体在谋求着共同的利益。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(3) 公众忽略了封闭住区内居民的<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">异质性。从表面上看，封闭住区是一种</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">安全、美好的居住社区。然而，大多数</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">公众都忽略了封闭住区内居民类型的异</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">质性。基于美国统计局的“美国家庭调</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">查”数据，Danielsen研究发现：封闭</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住区的居民以租客为主，并且在 2001</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">～ 2005 年，租客比例在持续上升</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">其他研究也有类似的发现</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。这也</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">就意味着，封闭住区并不像大多公众所</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">认为的是被同质的中产阶层和高产阶层</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">所拥有的，中低阶层也可以通过房屋租</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">赁的形式居住在封闭住区之中</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。总体</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来看，封闭住区内居民的社会属性是非</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">常多样的，“内部犯罪者”存在的概率</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">是很高的。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(4)公众对犯罪现象的理解和感知存<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在严重偏差。实际上，犯罪案件是偶发</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的。Sherman等人在美国明尼波里斯市</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的经典研究发现，在3％的家庭地址上</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">产生了 50％的犯罪案件</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。在所有的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪类型中，入室盗窃案件是最为常见、</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">多发的居住区犯罪。为了更加具体地理</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">解犯罪案件的极度偶发性特征，以位于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">H市中心位置的DP半岛为例进行说明。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当对2006～2010年DP半岛内的入室</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">盗窃案件进行“50m × 50m”的平面</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">网格化数量统计之后发现：97.4％的分</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">析单元内的案件频率不超过1件/年，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">99.8％的分析单元内的案件频率不超过</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2件 /年 (图 2)。案件数量最多的网格</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">单元内只发生了 3.4 件 / 年，是学校宿</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">舍区。如果再考虑到建筑的高度因素，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">那么对于单个家庭来说，犯罪案件的发</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生频率是极低的。对于其他类型的犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来说，其案件数量普遍都会大幅地少于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">入室盗窃案件数量，因此偶发性特征会</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">更为明显。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0miaPm2SIt2c0qbDiawdgqW05Cx6KEnoJWZ7NFTqrXT63sMN5jt71b0t9LYP6dHuj6XE2b9S5oY9BhNw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪案件极度偶发的本质特征，导<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">致了人们对犯罪案件的感知更多的不是</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于真实案发情况和个人被害经历，而</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">是基于媒体、舆论与宣传等的“道听途</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">说”。然而，通过这些途径所获取的犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪情况往往是不真实的。笔者在 DP 半</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">岛内实地调研时发现，个别封闭住区的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地产营销商会出于销售房屋的目的，要</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">求已经入住的居民只能向他们的物业部</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">门报案，而不能拨打 110。或许，这也</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">就部分解释了“部分封闭住区在开盘初</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">期会表现出较低的犯罪率，而在后期则</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">会出现犯罪率的上升”。经过多种因素</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的中介作用，公众所能感知到的犯罪状</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">况，大多时候都已经偏离了真实的犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">格局。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">综合以上4点可知，当公共大众无<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">法充分理解封闭住区和犯罪案件的本质</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">特征时，在相关利益群体的诱导下，公</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">共大众会笼罩在强烈的犯罪恐惧氛围之</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中，进而产生“封闭住区能减少犯罪”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的安全感知误解。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/IRfqU8qQmeye1ynx0ARQ6vCckvNllrDIYO7AZHD19icqpic8qdmreUPYndrNrIwybDKulicq7qbtxXVO85qQ8shCw/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 0px 6px;font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三   </strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 住区开放背景下犯罪防控的有效</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">策略</strong></p></section><section style="margin-top: -9px;margin-left: -6px;border-left: 2px solid rgb(13, 0, 21);border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(13, 0, 21);height: 16px;width: 16px;border-top-color: rgb(13, 0, 21);border-right-color: rgb(13, 0, 21);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在当前中国封闭式住宅小区逐步开<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">放的背景下，如何实现居住区内有效的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪防控，是当今城市规划建设管理者</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">迫切需要明确的问题之一。从环境犯罪</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">学的角度出发，至少可以通过以下两种</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市规划建设管理途径对犯罪的发生进</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行有效干预。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 宏观尺度上，通过城市交通和<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">设施的空间组织，能够影响犯罪案件空</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间分布的总体格局。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">环境犯罪学的经典理论 ——日常活</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">动理论认为，特定区域内犯罪者、被害</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">者和守护者之间交互作用的频次，基本</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上决定了该地区内的犯罪水平</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。这一</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">理论在世界范围内得到了广泛的证实。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由于大部分的潜在犯罪者都具有与正常</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人相似的日常行为规律，都是围绕着少</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">量的特定节点场所展开日常活动的，这</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">也就意味着特定地方内的人流越多，犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪者出现的概率也会越大</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。在城市内，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">很多类型的节点场所（如餐饮、娱乐和</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">办公等 ) 都具有高度的空间集聚性，且</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">不同类型的人类主体会具有不同的行为</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">偏好，因此可以通过各种设施建设指标</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的空间调配来影响潜在犯罪者、被害者</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和守护者的时空交互频率，进而实现对</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪案件总体空间格局的控制。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据时间地理学理论，居民个体的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">日常行为会受到能力约束 (Capability </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Constraints) 和耦合约束 (Coupling </span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Constraints) ，这意味着居民个体的室</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">外活动时间是有限的。城市的道路设计</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和交通组织，对潜在犯罪者的可达范围</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和“认知地图”的形成会具有非常关键</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的作用。通过对城市空间的可达性格局</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">分析，将目标吸引小、守护力量强的设</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">施配置在空间可达性相对较好的区域，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">而将目标吸引大、守护力量弱的设施配</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">置在空间可达性相对较差的区域，以此</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来减少特定区域内潜在犯罪者、适宜被</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">害目标和无效守护力量的交互频率。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">需要指出的是，不同类型的犯罪具</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">有不同的发生机理。在通过城市交通和</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">设施的空间配置来预防犯罪时，需要针</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对单一犯罪类型进行具体分析。过去，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对各类犯罪发生机理的理解欠缺，严重</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">制约了有效的城市安全规划设计的产</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生。近年来，随着国内犯罪地理学的缓</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">慢发展，这一状况正在得到逐步改善</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 微观尺度上，通过物质空间的<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">规划设计，能够培育“非正式控制”氛围，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">从而降低犯罪的发生概率。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于犯罪预防来说，仅仅依靠“技</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">术性”的安保手段是远远不够的，社会</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性的非正式防控将会发挥更大的作用。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当前，安防设备等技术性措施对犯罪影</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">响的实证研究，并没有得到一致性的结</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">果</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。然而，以“集体效能”为代表</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的非正式控制方法，已经得到了犯罪学</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">者的广泛认可，被证实是用于犯罪预防</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的切实有效手段</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> 。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">早在1961年，简·雅各布斯在《美<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">国大城市的死与生》中就提到了“街</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">道眼”的作用，为通过建筑结构与空间</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">设计来预防犯罪提供了典型示例</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1982 年提出的“破窗理论”认为，物</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">质空间的脏乱失序，会诱发出更多的犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪案件</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。因此，通过规划设计，实现</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">物质空间的有序化和整洁化，将有助于</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪案件的减少。Robert Sampson将</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">“社区内居民通过对邻里不良行为进行</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">善意干预所表现出来的社会凝聚力”定</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">义为集体效能。通过对芝加哥市 8782</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">位居民调查数据进行分析后发现，当控</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">制其他因素后，集体效能和暴力犯罪之</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间呈现出显著的负向关联关系</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">。这一</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成果被发表在《Science》上，标志着</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">社会性的“非正式控制”得到了广泛的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">认可。通过住区内或建筑内公共活动空</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间的具体设计，将能够促进居民个体之</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间的互动交流，从而促进“集体效能”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的培育，达到抑制犯罪发生的目的。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/IRfqU8qQmeye1ynx0ARQ6vCckvNllrDIYO7AZHD19icqpic8qdmreUPYndrNrIwybDKulicq7qbtxXVO85qQ8shCw/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四 <span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;"></span> </strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结语与讨论</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">封闭住宅小区是当前我国城市中普<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">遍存在的居住区形式之一，通常情况下</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">被认为能够减少犯罪的发生，为居民提</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">供相对安全的居住环境。然而，通过检</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">索英文文献后发现，在所检验的国际案</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">例情境中，封闭住区并不能显著地降低</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">犯罪被害率，这也就意味着“封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">内更为安全”的公众感知是有偏失的。</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">尽管当前国际上关于封闭住区与犯罪案</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">件之间关系的实证性研究很少，但案例</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">评估所涉及的住区数量由单个至数十个</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">乃至数千个，并且得到了较为一致的分</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">析结果，因此研究结论具有一定的可信</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">度。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在此基础上，基于环境犯罪学的相<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关理论和概念，对封闭住区与犯罪者之</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">间的相互作用机制进行分析。大部分封</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">闭住区对“外部犯罪者”的实际威慑作</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">用较弱，而且可能会对“潜在犯罪者”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">产生较大的目标诱惑，同时可能会为犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪者特别是“内部犯罪者”提供实施犯</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">罪的便利条件。由于这些作用机制的存</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在，封闭住区并不一定能够保证居民的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">生命财产安全。当前，对住区内部居民</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">类型异质性的忽略、对犯罪偶发性规律</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">理解的不足，以及相关利益群体的诱导，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">导致了“社区安全性”与“居民安全感”</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">之间的不匹配，从而产生了“封闭住区</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">内会更加安全”的广泛误解。其后，根</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">据环境犯罪学的相关研究成果，本文指</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">出了在当前的住区开放背景下，从宏观</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和微观空间尺度上，通过城市规划建设</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">管理来实现有效的犯罪防控的两种途</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">径。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">需要指出的是，当前关于封闭住区<span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与犯罪案件之间关系评估的实证性研究</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">还十分缺乏，针对东方国家特别是中国</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城市情境的案例研究更是空白。西方城</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">市情境下所得到的结论，在国内城市情</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">境下是否适用，仍然有待进一步的实证</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">检验。此外，在当前的国际案例研究中，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对封闭住区采用了一种概括性的笼统定</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">义，对各种具体类型也没有予以细分，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因而在未来的城市规划管理研究中也应</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">当予以注意。总体来看，尽管仍然存在</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">着诸多不足，当前的案例实证研究也具</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">有重要意义，它们所共同得到的“封闭</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住区并不能显著地降低犯罪被害率”的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">研究结果，将促使城市规划与管理学界</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对封闭住区的实际犯罪防控效果予以深</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">刻的检视与反思。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/IRfqU8qQmeye1ynx0ARQ6vCckvNllrDIYO7AZHD19icqpic8qdmreUPYndrNrIwybDKulicq7qbtxXVO85qQ8shCw/0?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 5px;background-color: rgb(249, 110, 87);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: white;padding: 10px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》2017年8期</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">住区开放与犯罪：国外情境下的</strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">实证评估与理论剖析<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;">》</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section class="" style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><img 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