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<section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5I6aAKmQQoibMjYc90wJIkQGT8V98D2Tt9UBUST3NHOeZ5bpEh8A2VMExWHfNZbcC4wz8TsMMrVrA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section><p><br  /></p><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);"></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 15px; margin-bottom: 15px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 100.497px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding: 3px 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(160, 160, 160); line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 17px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">导</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">读</p></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 569.489px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; color: rgb(97, 182, 204); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">8月21日，在博智宏观论坛十九次月度例会上，五位行业专家学者围绕“大都市圈发展战略与政策”展开讨论，内容整理如下，以飨读者。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);"></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(160, 160, 160); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><blockquote style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">内容来源：21世纪经济报道</p></blockquote></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 0.8em; padding-left: 0.8em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">大都市大是应当的</strong></p></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上海交通大学特聘教授  陆铭</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5I6aAKmQQoibMjYc90wJIkQpuJ3efDGs48AaQtibb9r4LTIWXVVJfWOoZME3Qe2ZujJS9uLSwCrXqw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我的核心观点有三个。第一，<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">经济的趋势性下滑缘于地区间和城市间的资源错配</span>。第二，<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">大城市没有“太大”的问题</span>。如今普遍的认知是我们的大城市太大，从而限制整个大城市和都市圈发展。第三，<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市病的病因其实出在供给侧，不是人多的问题</span>。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">经济与城市发展的规律主要有三点：</p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 670px; vertical-align: top; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 80.3977px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; font-size: 8px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; border: 2px dotted rgb(7, 99, 151); width: 1.6em; height: 1.6em; border-radius: 0.3em; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="padding-left: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 589.588px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市化水平随着经济发展水平提高不断提高，<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">人口会向城市集中</span>；</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 80.3977px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; font-size: 8px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; border: 2px dotted rgb(7, 99, 151); width: 1.6em; height: 1.6em; border-radius: 0.3em; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="padding-left: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 589.588px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">人口会向大城市和大城市周边的都市圈集中；</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 80.3977px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; font-size: 8px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; border: 2px dotted rgb(7, 99, 151); width: 1.6em; height: 1.6em; border-radius: 0.3em; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5em; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(7, 99, 151);"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3</p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="padding-left: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 589.588px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">世界上的一线城市人口重新回到市中心。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;">然而，有的政策既无效率又缺失公平。“无效”指的是有需求的地方没有供给，同时有供给的地方没有需求。“不公平”指的是城市内部用行政性的手段决定谁能在城市里待着，或者享受公共服务。<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">用行政性手段控制大城市供给的时候，会将生产要素价格提高，并为欠发达地区制造人口流出障碍。</span><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">这样的政策会扩大城市和区域间的收入差距和产业梯度的差距。</span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">因此，<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">有悖于规律的政策必须纠错</span>。但如何进行纠错，这是一个时间问题。目前沿海地区大城市呈现高房价现象。人口流出地区出现住房库存和“空城”现象。欠发达地区政府在加大住房和基础设施建设的投资过程中，投资建成时形成GDP，基础设施、工业园和新城建成后却无相应的人（或企业）进驻利用，从而变成了债务。这种局面需要引起大家的重视。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 0.8em; padding-left: 0.8em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2013年中国已经进入了大都市化阶段</strong></p></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京大学国家发展研究院副教授  徐建国</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5I6aAKmQQoibMjYc90wJIkQbRff8XLa54E7SDDqzguvibicaw7bLNiaGmcFNSlpVc9y5T09KyXEic69Dg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的经济增长，特别是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">改革开放以来的经济增长的主要成绩都是工业化带来的</span>。工业化就是城市化，城市化阶段已经开始了。未来增长模式一定会变，而这个拐点在2013年已经发生了。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1978年以来的经济增长主要就是工业化，2000年以后中国逐步成为世界工厂。从城市化率和工业化率的比率来看，中国的比率偏低，说明<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">工业化远超过城市化</span>。2013年以后，中国城市化率速度在上升，工业化率增速在减缓。近几年这个数字在上升，2000年只有1.1左右，2015年达到1.43，全球的平均水平是1.99。可见<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的城市化和工业化的比例还是低于全球平均水平</span>。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">2013年是拐点，以前是工业化主导城市化为辅，以后应该是城市化为主、工业化为辅。</span>2004至2012年这段时间中国小城市的经济增长略快于大城市，2013年以后，大城市经济增长比小城市要快。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">工业化阶段，在任何地方的生产都可以带动经济增长。但是当大规模工业扩张结束以后，成本提高。只有在大城市生产，获得了各种服务业支撑，经济总量和质量才能进一步升级。从人口的角度来看，这趋势更加的明显。以前小城市和大城市人口的增速差不多，但2013以后小城市人口不增加了，千亿以上GDP规模的大城市人口暴涨，其他城市基本是0增长或者负增长。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">经济发展是一个动态的技术进步、产业升级、人力资本积累的过程。这个过程和城市化是伴生的</span>，静态的刘易斯观点只是看个静态的截面，拿出的政策诊断常常是似是而非的。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 0.8em; padding-left: 0.8em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国已经形成规模化城市群</strong></p></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">首都经济贸易大学教授</strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国区域科学协会会长  杨开忠</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5I6aAKmQQoibMjYc90wJIkQyia8eOSE7vm4JboiayTnXw7ibiapB1cTicxZSFjkZFYc681CkaNEgFibyicRQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">基于夜间灯光数据和齐普夫指数对中国城市规模分布的变化开展研究，有如下结论。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1、中国的城市规模分布并不分散，2010年来已经接近标准的齐普夫分布</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1992年至2000年，中国的城市规模分布从倒U型向均衡方向转变，说明较小的城市发展比较快；2000年后则呈相反趋势，规模序位较高的大城市相对增长较快。2010年前后，我国的城市规模分布已接近标准的齐普夫分布。这样的变化主要是我们国家上世纪九十年代以来经济发展方式的转变所决定的，而非城市规模政策问题。2000年以前中国经济主要以要素为驱动力，2000年以后则进入到了规模经济驱动的阶段。现在中国开始走向创新驱动转型。要素驱动阶段，城市规模分布趋向分散；到了规模驱动阶段，规模较大城市增长得比较快。那么<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">未来的趋势会是怎样？我认为可能更倾向于大中小城市的相对平行增长，这是发达国家发展到一定阶段后都会出现的长期过程。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); word-wrap: break-word !important;">2、我们国家的城市规模分布及其变化区域之间是不一样的</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">有的是首位分布</span>，城市人口相对集中在首位大城市，如：广东、福建和京津冀地区，且前两者的首位分布的度一直在上升。<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">有的是次序分布</span>，如山东、山西，且次序分布的度是一直加强的，表明这些省区城市规模分布相对比较均匀。<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">有的则接近标准的齐普夫分布</span>，如浙江。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从城市群的角度看，各城市群的发展阶段不完全一样，城市群内部规模分布的变化趋势也不一样。具体表现出三种模式：一是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">集中化发展模式</span>，如珠三角、成渝、海峡西岸、长江中游城市群，辽中南城市群等；二是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">分散化发展模式</span>，如黔中城市群、京津冀城市群、长三角城市群等；三是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">并行发展模式</span>，如北部湾城市群。但是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">随着时间变迁，模式也会发生变迁</span>。京津冀城市群2009年后才由集中化转向分散化发展模式，长江中游城市群以2006年为分隔点，从分散化发展转变为集中化发展模式。<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市群是城镇化的主体形态，但不同城市群发展模式不同，政策需因地制宜。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); word-wrap: break-word !important;">3、从政策的角度看，我国城市规模政策应该适应市场经济发展进程，跳出“一刀切”式集中抑或分散发展的政策窠臼</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">认识、尊重、顺应作为自然历史过程的城市发展规律，自由看待城镇化和城市发展。创造让市场机制发挥决定性作用的统一公平竞争环境。同时，<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">针对具体城市过密和过疏问题，应实行差别化干预政策</span>。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 0.8em; padding-left: 0.8em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">抓住大城市群就是抓住中国经济的主体</strong></p></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国发展研究基金会秘书长助理</strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">研究一部主任  俞建拖</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5I6aAKmQQoibMjYc90wJIkQ4TOt72Mhs7d3WAadRXic8DiccItpNnuToUKwv1v1VCOnM9xdnxK1XBEg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国经济奇迹还没有结束，经济的潜在增长率还有较大的提升空间，因为<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的城市化本身还是在持续推进，城市化内部的结构在优化，城市化的内生品质还是有巨大的提升空间</span>。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">经济向大城市群地区稳定集聚，抓住大城市群，就要抓住中国经济的主体。</span>城市群一体化动力如果减弱，就会拖累城镇化进程。现在可以看到珠三角大湾区隐然成型，中西部、中原和成渝地区三大城市群都值得关注，但长江中游的城市群规划的概念还值得商榷。而货币政策推动的一体化能够产生的效果目前很难持续。从模式上来看，过去较多依靠经济集聚和基础设施的区域链接来促进城市集群一体化水平的提高，未来就要<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">更多靠区域内经济均等化和制度协同来贡献</span>。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 0.8em; padding-left: 0.8em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">大都市圈发展要回答的三大问题</strong></p></section><section class="" style="margin-top: 5px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.6; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">国务院发展研究中心原副主任</strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国发展研究基金会副理事长  刘世锦</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/raykBSCslW5I6aAKmQQoibMjYc90wJIkQTdpzbsJw1pw87s5ygy61Y02Yzr1M3dJ3POM0EbutEacl0B3OIzjxJA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我以为我们要从三个方面来总结。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1、中国经济增长与大都市圈发展之间存在什么关系</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国经济正进行着转型升级，制造业转型升级需要与很多生产性服务业高度融合，而后者大量聚集于大都市圈。</span>服务业，特别是大部分社会服务业必须在城市人口聚集的条件下才能发展，比如只有生活在北京的人才能便捷地享受到国家大剧院提供的公共服务。创新行为同样具有很强的聚集效应，如果没有人口聚集，即使个人具备创新天分，也难有足够激励和配套条件产出创新成果。<br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">服务业特别是生产性服务业、社会服务业已经成为中国经济增长的主要动力。</span>没有大都市圈的相应发展，中国经济增长潜力能不能发挥出来，经济能不能保持一个适合速度且有质量、有效率、可持续的增长，都是有疑问的。<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">大都市圈发展不是一个局部问题，而是关系中国经济发展全局的大问题。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2、如何利用城市竞争机制推动城市发展</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; line-height: 2; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;">城市发展需要规划、设计、制度、政策等，所以<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">政府角色重要，城市管理者的素质和能力影响很大</span>。城市建设带来空间结构变化，出现错误后，纠错的成本很高。故而减少错误，顺应城市发展规律，形成城市间的竞争机制非常重要。比如，</span><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;">有的城市领导者观念跟不上，驱离所谓低端人口，但在不远的将来，对人的争夺，不仅是高端人才，也会争夺其它服务业人群，尤其是争夺保姆、建筑工人。</span><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">不欢迎或者驱离所谓低端人口，会推高很多服务业的雇佣成本，导致城市降低竞争力。城市的包容性，是城市强大的内在需求。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以往经济增长的重点是工业化，有一个地区竞争机制，看谁招商引资多，企业办得多。下一步重点转向城市化，也要有一个城市间的竞争机制，看城市能不能对人更有吸引力，能不能让人们的生活更美好。不要低估现在城市领导者的水平，许多人具有现代化、国际化的眼界和知识，执行力也很强。现在亟需解决好两个问题，一是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">给地方政府，特别是城市领导人更大的自主权</span>；二是<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">允许人口、资金、土地、技术的要素自由流动</span>。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">市场经济环境中，城市发展本身是一个创新过程，也是一个试错和学习的过程。</span>有一个好的竞争机制，优胜劣汰，一批生气勃勃的城市和城市群将会脱颖而出。只有经历这个过程，那些落后的、有悖于规律的观念和做法才能得以纠正。</p><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br data-filtered="filtered" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; color: rgb(7, 99, 151); word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3、在肯定聚集效应的前提下，如何让城市的结构更为合理化</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 15px; line-height: 27.2727px; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;">大城市或大都市圈具有不可替代的聚集的正面效应，同时也存在着结构问题，各种“城市病”相当突出，也就是聚集的负面效应。<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(255, 76, 0); word-wrap: break-word !important;">首先要解决“大都市圈半径有多大”的问题。</span>陆铭教授提出应以50公里为半径，虽然现代轨道交通的发展扩大了城市半径，但是一定存在一个合理的半径范围。北京周边应该建设一批小镇，把城市核心区的部分职能转出去。通过小镇形成产业支撑，同时用快速轨道交通把小镇与核心区连接起来，配套均等化的公共服务。这些小镇与市中心的距离不能太远，大致不超过50公里，太远聚集效应就会打折扣，市中心的人也不愿转出去。在确定合理的聚集半径后，要通过优化空间和功能布局，尽可能降低城市聚集的负面效应。形成紧凑型城市结构，减少污染和拥堵等，使城市的聚集效应达到一种更高水准的平衡。</p></section></section></section><p><br  /></p><p><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; white-space: normal; font-family: 微软雅黑; line-height: 23.2727px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(122, 68, 66); font-size: 14px; line-height: 23.2727px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">注：本内容来源21世纪经济报道，转自清华同衡规划播报（ID：InfoTHUPDI），转载注明来源，十分感谢作者的悉心编写与分享，版权归原作者所有，仅供交流学习使用。如有版权问题，请及时与我们联系，我们将第一时间做出处理。</span></strong></p><p><strong style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); 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