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“县不会落在后边么?”中国高速铁路升级的分布影响 “No County Left Behind?” The Distributional Impact of High-Speed Rail Upgrade in China 本文由新加坡国立大学教授Yu Qin于2017年发表于journal of economic geography。 交通基础设施投资可能会重塑经济活动。在这篇文章中，我检验中国高速铁路升级的分布影响，它改善了节点城市间的旅客获得快速列车服务的渠道，但是却使得外围县获得这种服务的渠道受损。通过检验准实验变异的方法，即县是否受到计划的影响，我的分析认为受到铁路线路升级影响的县，随着升级计划的进行GDP和人均GDP会被抑制，而这主要是由于固定投资的下降造成的。本文首次验证了交通成本影响都市外围居民的模式。 这篇文章研究中国高速铁路升级的分配效应，它降低了大城市间人们出行的成本，以绕过外围区域为代价。通过应用双重差分策略，我得出以下主要结论。第一，通过比较受铁路线路影响和不受铁路影响的县的GDP和人均GDP，证据表明2007年高速铁路提速过后受路线影响的县的GDP和人均GDP会显著下降4~5个百分点。第二，GDP在被绕过的县大约336~420亿元，给定2006年的平均水平大约是8.36亿元每个县，可以大部分的通过固定投资的下降解释。最后，大城市间降低的交通费用很可能是负效应产生的渠道。总而言之，这些结果表明经济活动由周边县向中心城市集中是由于城市间交通成本下降导致的。 <strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑, 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 14px; line-height: 27px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 32px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">参考文献：Yu Q. “No county left behind?” The distributional impact of high-speed rail upgrades in China[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2017, 17(3). <strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑, 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 14px; line-height: 27px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 32px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">Abstract：Infrastructure investment may reshape economic activities. In this paper, I examine the access to speedy train services in the city nodes but impaired train access in peripheral counties being bypassed by the services. By exploiting the quasi-experimental variation in whether counties were affected by this project, my analysis suggests that the affected counties on the upgraded railway lines experienced reductions in GDP and GDP per capita following the upgrade, which was largely driven by the concurrent drop in fixed asset investment. This paper provides the first empirical evidence on how does transportation cost of people affect urban peripheral patterns.<p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; text-indent: 0em; white-space: normal; font-family: 'MicroSoft YaHei'; font-size: 14px; text-align: center; line-height: 29px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">点击左下阅读原文获取英文工作论文<hr style="line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" /><p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; text-align: justify; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">：中国城市与区域研究的交流平台，关注城市与区域发展转型，借鉴全球城市与区域发展智慧，做有国际水平的中国城市与区域现实问题导向型研究。努力做中国城市与区域科学好的研究者，做中国城市与区域科学好的组织者，做中国城市与区域科学好的传播者。 <p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; text-align: justify; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">欢迎读者供稿，小编邮箱：<a style="color: rgb(0, 176, 240); text-decoration: underline; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">@126.com</a><p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; text-align: justify; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">更多精彩内容，请关注：<p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; text-align: justify; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">微信号：<p style="margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; line-height: 25.6px; white-space: normal; text-align: justify; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 1em; max-width: 100%; font-stretch: normal; box-sizing: border-box !important; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/QlZYkClkYIrkqicQpkVgnD2qDYjSdpcJcqYP1aDrX6E2Pia1GBsS1JXWeytJicOkbEWibKibZzyxFcCuNuXgwjcSpCA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" />