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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="text-align: center;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfy3HOQjLvkuqUFy48pCgMWt5ucjgick38Tyr5jLJT8Toq1TjcuVeM5jAA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 70%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(153, 166, 171);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;">欢迎点击以上蓝色字体</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关注</p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfy3HOQjLvkuqUFy48pCgMWt5ucjgick38Tyr5jLJT8Toq1TjcuVeM5jAA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;border-top: 1px solid rgb(109, 103, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;padding: 0px 10px 0px 20px;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(109, 103, 255);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;font-size: 0px;margin: 4px 0%;transform: translate3d(66px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(66px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(66px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(66px, 0px, 0px);justify-content: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 182px;height: 8px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.11);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 20px;align-self: stretch;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;background-image: linear-gradient(to left bottom, rgba(109, 103, 253, 0) 48%, rgb(109, 103, 253) 49%, rgb(109, 103, 253) 52%, rgba(109, 103, 253, 0) 53%);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 52px;align-self: flex-end;flex: 0 0 auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px -16px;border-width: 0px;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: none solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);padding: 0px 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(106, 106, 106);line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">沈阳市规划设计研究院有限公司规划三所高级工程师刘春涛，辽宁省沈抚新区开发投资集团有限公司工程师刘馨阳，沈阳市规划设计研究院有限公司规划三所高级工程师王玲在《规划师》2020年增刊1期撰文，近年来，东北三省的人口净迁出规模持续扩大，成为制约东北老工业城市振兴的核心要素。文章将新中国成立以来</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省人口变化历程分为“人口数量快速增长、增长速度高于全国平均平”“人口数量平稳增长，增长速度基本与全国</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">持平”“人口数量低速增长，增长速度低于全国平均水平”三个阶段，并梳理和分析其内在机制。通过深入剖析东北三省人</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">口的结构性问题，指出其在年龄结构、性别结构和受教育程度等方面的变化趋势及存在的巨大隐忧；提出调结构、促开放、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">提保障、促融合等六个方面对策，以期为东北老工业基地的城市振兴提供决策支持。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">关键词：东北三省；人口外迁；城市振兴</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">[文章编号]1006-0022(2020)S0-0091-06</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">[中图分类号]TU984</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;">[文献标识码]B </span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;">[引文格式]</span>刘春涛，刘馨阳，王玲．东北三省人口迁出问题与城市振兴对策[J]．规划师，2020( 增刊1)：91-96．</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 7px;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: left;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 33%;vertical-align: top;align-self: flex-start;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 10px;display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;margin: 0px 15px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;flex: 300 300 0%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 0px;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br 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border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 1 0%;align-self: flex-end;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 23px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: -8px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 0 0 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.18);padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);margin: 9px 0% 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 23px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.06);margin: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-end;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);margin: 4px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 18px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.6) rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="margin: -4px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 9px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究背景及意义</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 0px 0% 17px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none solid solid;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);margin: 0px 7px;padding: 0px 6px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% -7px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 12px 20px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">人口发展一直是国家高度重视的全局性、战略性工</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">作。国家“十二五”“十三五”规划均对人口的科学发</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">展和区域调控提出战略性部署。2016 年国务院印发</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">的《国家人口发展战略规划(2016—2030)》指出，未来</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">一段时期是加大力度应对人口发展关键的转折期，“创</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">造有利于发展的人口总量势能、结构红利和素质资本叠</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">加优势，促进人口与经济社会、资源环境协调可持续发</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">展”。党的十九大报告进一步指出“促进生育政策和</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">相关经济社会政策配套衔接，加强人口发展战略研究”。</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">与此同时，2015～2017 年，全国迁移流动人口规模为</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">2.44～2.45 亿，大规模的人口迁移和流动已经成为</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">我国当前经济社会发展的新常态。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">近年来，东北三省人口净迁出规模持续扩大现象受</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">到社会各界广泛关注。据统计，2005～2010 年，东北</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">三省人口净迁出数量大幅提升，达115.4 万人，比1995</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">～2000 年增长了1倍，而这个数字在2010～2015 年</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">又进一步增大。一般而言，外迁人口大多为中青年劳动</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">力，劳动年龄人口的减少对于人口流出地的经济发展和</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">社会进步会产生负面影响。加上东北地区城镇化水平</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">较高，人口流出不单是城镇化过程中农村剩余劳动力向</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">城市转移，更是高素质人才的跨区域外迁，这使得东北</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">地区出现劳动力与消费力的结构性短缺，危及东北经济</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">活力。本文深入分析东北三省人口发展问题的现实性</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">和严峻性，以期为东北老工业基地的振兴提供借鉴。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 1 0%;align-self: flex-end;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 23px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: -8px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 0 0 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.18);padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);margin: 9px 0% 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 23px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.06);margin: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-end;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);margin: 4px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 18px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.6) rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="margin: -4px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 9px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省人口演变过程审视：阶段性及其原因</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: block;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 0px 0% 17px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none solid solid;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);margin: 0px 7px;padding: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% -7px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 12px 20px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（一）人口数量与全国比重：先升后降</span></p></section><section style="line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">新中国成立以来，东北三省人口数</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">量从1949 年末的3853.0 万增长到2015</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">年的10703.8 万，67 年内人口净增长5</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">850.7万， 增幅达177.8%；1949 年到</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015 年，全国总人口从54167 万增长到</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">137462 万，人口净增83295 万，增幅</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">达153.8%。半个多世纪以来，东北三省</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口增长总体上领先于全国。具体来看，</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">呈现两大特征：</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一是人口数量先增后减，人口增长</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">率不断降低，2012 年出现负增长( 图1)。</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1949～2011年，东北三省的人口数量</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">呈上升态势，并于2011年达到10815.5</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">万的峰值；2012年人口增长率出现拐点，</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">首次由正变负，而2012～2015 年人口</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">持续呈负增长态势。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4407407" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjLp4ylP2B9cLPvTwEsdeyxcFweeSJzeyPLgFqZpvticS2DrialvuA8Sv0JOF7Zrwico1cqEZaXpOR2g/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图1 1949～2015 年东北三省人口数量变化</p></section><section style="line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">二是人口数量占全国人口的比重先</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">升后降，趋势线呈梯台形状( 图2)。新中</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">国成立之初，东北三省人口仅占全国的</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">7.11%。1949～1965 年东北三省人口保</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">持了较快增长，并于1965 年达到历史峰</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">值，占全国人口的9.07%。其高速增长</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">状况一直持续到1981 年，之后则呈持续</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">下跌趋势。尤其在2012 年，东北三省人</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">口占全国人口比重跌破8%，2015年仅</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">占7.79%。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4453704" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjLp4ylP2B9cLPvTwEsdeyxbn8OIRYq8YTvYmanEiaibibiasUiaTYSqYXaWTEWlPbichKtoT5Zz9QTbTLg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">图2 1949～2015 东北三省人口占全国人口比重变化</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（二）人口演化三阶段：与经济发展息息相关</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">我国人口数量变化受宏观政策、区</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">域政策影响较大，仅观察东北三省人口</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">数量变化不利于判断其受人口迁移影响</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">后的人口数量变动特征。本文尝试利用</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省人口增长率与全国人口增长率</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">进行对比，将东北人口数量演变划分为</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">三个阶段( 图3)。数据显示，东北三省</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">人口增长的演化历程与东北经济社会的</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">兴衰历程息息相关。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4388889" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjLp4ylP2B9cLPvTwEsdeyxiabKuANzxBeiaP0ej7Bp07GO4richwMiaTKM495ibfVHyDl76fScOibfBdZw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">图3 1949～2015 年东北三省人口增长率与全国人口增长率对比</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-end;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 3px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(109, 103, 255);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">01</p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">第一阶段</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-start;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">人口数量快速增长、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">增长速度高于全国平均水平(1949～</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">1963年)。新中国成立后的15 年里，东</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">北三省人口增长速度远远高于全国平均</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">水平。东北三省凭借其自然资源优势、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">战略区位优势和工业基础设施优势，城</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">镇化和工业化进程明显加快，以外来人</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">口迁入为主的人口增长速度大幅高于全</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">国平均水平。胡焕庸先生曾直言如此大</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">规模的人口迁入“世界罕见”。1959</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">～1961 年大跃进期间，全国人口增长受</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">到极大影响。1959 年全国人口自然增长</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">率跌至冰点的-1.49%，而当时东北三省</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">的粮食储备相对充裕，吸引了大量的迁</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">入人口，使得人口增长率保持在1% 以上。</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">东北人口的快速增长在“增加全国粮食</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">供给”“促进东北贸易发展”“缓解其</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">他地区人口压力”“促进工业进步”“提</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">高土地利用效率”等方面为自身经济社</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">会乃至全国经济发展做出了积极贡献。</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-end;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 3px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(109, 103, 255);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">02</p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">第二阶段</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-start;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">人口数量平稳增长，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">增长速度基本与全国持平(1964～1978</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">年)。这期间东北三省与全国保持了相近</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">的人口增长率。一方面，20 世纪60 年</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">代后期，全国自然灾害后的补偿性生产</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">造就了一波生育高峰。1973 年，国务院</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">计划生育领导小组办公室召开全国计划</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">生育工作汇报会，提出“晚( 晚婚晚育)、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">稀( 两胎之间需要有间隔)、少( 少生)”</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">的政策要求，导致全国人口增长率迅速</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">降低，东北三省与全国人口增长率同时</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">跌至2% 以下。另一方面，东北三省在</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">经济投入减少、支援三线建设的背景下，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">人口迁出量剧增，人口增长率开始与全</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">国增长率持平，但仍高于1%。</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-end;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 3px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(109, 103, 255);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">03</p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">第三阶段</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-start;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口数量低速增长，<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增长速度低于全国平均水平(1979～</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015 年)。这个阶段东北三省人口增长</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">率呈现明显的周期波动式下降，每个周</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">期约5 ～ 7 年。2006 年以来，东北三省</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口增长率与全国人口增长率相比差距</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">越来越大。十一届三中全会后，在“一</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对夫妇只生一个孩子”的基本国策引导</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下，全国人口出生率持续降低，1996 年</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">之后人口增长率再未能超过1%。这个阶</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">段前期，由于全国城镇化率水平不高，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农民和自由职业者对计划生育政策的执</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">行力较低，导致全国人口增长率呈平缓</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下降的走势，而东北三省由于工业化、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城镇化较高的缘故，计划生育政策落实</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">较好，人口出生率控制在低位。20 世纪</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">80 年代改革开放之后，东北经济发展出</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">现颓势，东北三省呈现出人口增长率低</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">于全国平均人口增长率的特征。为培育</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和建立社会主义市场经济体制、提高经</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">济活力、发展城市经济，我国自改革开</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">放以来逐步放开户籍管理制度，人口分</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">布在空间凝固的状态逐渐得以改变，东</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">北人口迁出规模增大；20 世纪90 年代起，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省的工业经济陷入困境，大批国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">企受长时间计划经济体制下结构性问题</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和体制性矛盾的影响，面临停产和亏损，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">导致东北老工业基地出现经济零增长甚</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">至负增长。此后，东北三省的人口增长</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">率进入低于1% 的时代。2003 年，中共</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">中央国务院联合发布《实施东北老工业</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基地振兴战略的若干意见》，2004 年国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">务院正式成立东北振兴司，直到2009 年，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这一时期是东北三省的人口快速增长时</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">期。2012 年以来，在经济发展“断崖式”</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">下跌的压力下，东北三省劳动力进一步</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">加大输出，人口增长率转为负值。2015年，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省人口增长率为-0.42%，与全国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口增长率的0.5% 相差0.92 个百分点，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">这是新中国成立以来全国人口增长率最</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">低的年，也是新中国成立以来东北三</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">省人口增长率与全国人口增长率差距最</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大的一年。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 1 0%;align-self: flex-end;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 23px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</strong></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: -8px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 0 0 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.18);padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);margin: 9px 0% 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 23px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.06);margin: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-end;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);margin: 4px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 18px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.6) rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="margin: -4px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 9px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省人口现状与趋势剖析：结构性危机凸显</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: block;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 0px 0% 17px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none solid solid;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);margin: 0px 7px;padding: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% -7px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 12px 20px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（一）人口迁出导致年龄结构危机</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-end;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 3px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(109, 103, 255);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">01</p></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-start;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据第六次全国人口普查数据，</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">全国不同原因迁移人口的中位年龄在</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">17.9～41岁，因此随着人口迁出数量的</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">增加，迁出地将面临老龄化态势加重、</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">抚养比上升的问题，这个趋势在东北三</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">省尤其明显。历次人口普查和抽样调查</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">数据显示( 图4)，我国14 岁以下少儿人</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">口比重在1987～1995 年缓慢下降，在</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1995～2010 年急速下降， 在2010～</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015 年，随着计划生育二胎政策的逐步</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">放开，生育率逐步提高并趋于平稳。对</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">比而言，东北三省少儿人口比重持续下</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">降，下降速度远快于全国平均速度。1987</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">年，东北三省14 岁以下人口为2528.1</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">万，占总人口的26.55%，略低于全国平</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">均值28.76%；2015 年， 东北三省14 岁</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">以下人口为1201.6 万人，占总人口的</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">10.94%，比全国的数据(16.52%) 低5.58</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">个百分点，甚至低于日本少儿人口比，</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">成为全球出生率最低、少儿人口比最低</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的区域之一。从地区发展的潜在劳动力</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">资源来看，少儿人口比例过低意味着未</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来人口自然增长的动力不足。少儿人口</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">比还有另外一个重要的意义，其本身代</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">表区域潜在劳动力要素的多寡，直接影</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">响区域未来生产和消费能力。对比全国，</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上海、北京、天津等地少儿人口比普遍</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">较低，但同时也是全国迁入人口占比最</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">高的几个城市，其少儿人口比低的更多</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">原因是劳动力人口数量庞大，劳动力要</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">素丰富，相比较而言，东北三省由于人</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">口迁出造成社会经济发展后继无人的问</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">题愈加突显。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4342593" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjLp4ylP2B9cLPvTwEsdeyx9jaCMusv8wvRWHxTumXIf29ibia6Pic3MibJE48uxuicvnwLRQqhN78N3tQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">图4 1987～2015 年东北三省14 岁以下人口占总人口比重与全国的对比</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-end;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 3px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;padding: 0px 10px;box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% 3px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(109, 103, 255);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">02</p></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-end;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;margin: 0px 0% 3px;justify-content: flex-start;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 12px;height: 12px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14) 2px 2px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 2px 0% 0px;transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67);background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.14);box-shadow: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.67) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省人口老龄化速度明显快</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">于全国平均水平( 图5)。1987 年，东北三省老年人口为415.7 万，占全国总人口的4.37%， 低于全国平均水平5.48%；2000 年，东北三省老年人口为693.2 万，占全国总人口的6.61%，接近全国平均水平7.1%；2015 年，东北三省老年人口为1281.3 万人，占总人口11.67%，远高于全国的10.47%。近30 年来，辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省老龄化水平在全国的排名分别从第17、23、28 位，上升至第4、15、18 位，成为全国老龄化水平上升最快的地区。一般认为，当一个国家或地区60 岁以上老年人口占人口总数的10%，或65 岁以上老年人口占人口总数的7%，即意味着这个国家或地区的人口处于老龄化社会。据此标准，2005 年东北三省已经</span><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">全面进入老龄化社会，辽</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">宁省更是在2000 年先于全国提前进入老</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">龄化。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.462037" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mjLp4ylP2B9cLPvTwEsdeyx8rku6pZF4gcuo6JNYobPicmeBlmO25icA7gFol3EBnHolZ0PM60kiawrw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">图5 1987～2015 年东北三省65 岁以上人口占总人口比重与全国的对比</p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（二）人口迁出导致性别失衡</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口学通常以每100 位女性所对应<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的男性数目为计算标准，衡量某一国家</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">或地区的男女性别比。据《2015年全国</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1% 抽样调查资料》，全国按现住地、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性别分的户口登记地在外省的人口共</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">9722.77 万人，其中男性约为5619.03</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">万，女性约为4103.74 万，男女性别比</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为136.9︰100，这说明迁移人口中男性</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">远超过女性。新中国成立前后，由于工</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农劳动力迁入以男性为主，东北三省总</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">人口性别比一直高于全国平均水平，改</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">革开放后这种人口迁移状况得到反转。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1987～2015 年， 东北三省性别比从</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">104.79 持续下降至101.24，较全国平均</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">水平相差幅度不断扩大，成为全国人口</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">性别比最低的地区。1987 年，辽宁省、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">黑龙江省、吉林省的人口性别比分别为</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">104.52、104.91 和105.04，接近但略低</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">于全国人口性别比，分别排在全国的第</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">23、21 和19 位。2015 年，东北三省性</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">别比分别为100.45、101.59、102.02，排</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在全国的第31、28 和27 位。事实上，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在东北三省的一些大城市，女多男少现</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">象更为突出，引发社会关注。例如沈阳，</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2015 年户籍人口性别比跌至97.9，创下</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1987 年以来东北三省最低记录。大连、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">盘锦的人口性别比也都低于100。</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（三）人才优势正在逐步丧失</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">人口的文化素质对地区发展影响深</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">远。东北三省是新中国成立以来的工业</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">先驱地，其城镇化明显快于全国其他地</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">区，教育基础设施配置相对较高，人口</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">受教育程度也一直领先全国。然而根据</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">改革开放后历次人口普查数据，东北三</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">省人口受高等教育人口的绝对数量逐步</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">提高，但其比重在全国排名持续走低，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">尤其吉林、黑龙江两省排名下降幅度较</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">大。1990 年东北三省专科及以上学历人</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">口为23.28 万，占6 岁以上人口的2.99%，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">大幅高于全国水平(2.01%)。其中辽宁</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">省、吉林省、黑龙江省分别为10.36 万</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">人、5.75 万人、7.17 万人，分别占6 岁</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">以上人口的3.24%、2.99% 和2.70%，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">位于全国排名的第4、5、6 位。当时的</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省仍是全国的人才高地，人口受</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">教育素质排名仅次于北京、上海和天津</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">三个直辖市；2015 年，东北三省专科及</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">以上学历人口为1551.43 万，占6 岁以</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">上人口的14.71%，略高于全国平均水</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">平(13.33%)。其中辽宁省专科及以上学</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">历人口为713.06 万，占6 岁以上人口的</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">比重16.93%，排在全国第4 位，但吉林</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">省、黑龙江省专科及以上学历人口分别</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">为347.96 万和490.41 万，仅占6 岁以上</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">人口比重的13.17% 和13.28%，低于全</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">国平均水平，在省级行政单元中分别排</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">名第15、14 位。</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">在研究型人才方面，2000 年东北</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">三省研究生及以上学历人口占6 岁以上</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">人口比例为0.09%，略高于全国平均值</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">0.08%，是全国除北京、上海和天津外研</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">究生及以上学历人口比例最高的地区。</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">其中，辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省分别</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">是0.12%，0.08%、0.07%，全国排名第48、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">11 位。2015 年，东北三省研究生及以上</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">学历人口占6 岁以上人口比例为0.49%，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">低于全国平均水平的0.59%，其中辽宁</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">省、吉林省、黑龙江省分别为0.66%、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">0.43% 和0.33%，全国排名第7、11、19</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">位。中高端人才对于产业结构优化调整</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">有着重要的支撑作用，随着人口的迁出，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省的区域人才优势正在逐步丧失，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">对东北老工业城市振兴造成极大障碍。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0% 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;flex: 1 1 0%;align-self: flex-end;height: auto;margin: 0px 0px 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 23px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四</strong></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: -8px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 0 0 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.18);padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(-7px, 0px, 0px);margin: 9px 0% 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 23px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;background-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.06);margin: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right;font-size: 0px;justify-content: flex-end;transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(5px, 0px, 0px);margin: 4px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 18px;height: 4px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: solid none;border-color: rgba(109, 103, 255, 0.6) rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="margin: -4px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 17px;line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 9px;color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">东北三省城市振兴对策</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: block;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 0px 0% 17px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;flex: 100 100 0%;align-self: flex-start;height: auto;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none solid solid;border-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);margin: 0px 7px;padding: 0px 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0% -7px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px 12px 20px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（一）推动制造业结构调整，加速带动劳动力吸引</span></p></section><section style="line-height: 1.6;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Herberle 在《乡村—城市间人口迁移的原因》中首次用“推—拉”概念来解释人口在区域间迁移的原因。Bogue也提出在不同区域之间，存在促进人口进入的积极力量和阻碍人口进入的消极力量，分别称为该地区的“拉力因素”和人口流出地的“推力因素”。对某个区域来说，可能具备“资源枯竭”“生产成本提高”等12个推力因素和“更好的就业机会”“更好的生活条件”等6个拉力因素，而这些因素共同构成“推—拉”合力，最终决定人口是否发生迁移。东北老工业基地的工业结构性问题造成的“推—拉”是人口迁出的原因之一。一方面，原材料工业、装备制造业和重化工业比重过大，以及市场开放程度过低等因素，对民营企业和高端劳动力吸引不足；另一方面，缺少轻工业、大规模消费品制造业等劳动密集型产业的发展空间，对半熟练劳动力、低技能劳动力形成迁出的推力。首先，东北三省应当放弃单纯依赖自身优势产业的发展思路，积极培育轻纺工业、生活消费品制造等易于中小企业衍生的、对人口吸引门槛</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">较低的产业类型，补齐劳动密集型产业</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">的短板。其次，要坚持用“传统优势产</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业+ 战略性新兴产业”双管齐下的方式，</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">紧紧抓住《中国制造2025》的战略性新</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">兴产业发展机遇期，加快推动高端装备</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">制造业规模化、高端化、集约化和特色</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">化生产，在高端数控机床、智能机器人</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和高端海洋工程装备等优势产业的基础</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">上，着力延伸产业链条，加快生物医药、</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">光电子和高性能纤维等战略性新兴产业</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发展，形成专业化水平高的特色产业集</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">群，积极提升劳动者收入水平，吸引更</span><span style="font-family: line-through;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">多的就业人口在东北三省落户。</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（二）</span><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">调整服务业结构，发挥旅游业对</span><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">人口的聚集作用</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">旅游业发展往往是区域形象的最佳</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">代言，东北三省应进一步挖掘自身潜力，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">从拉动人口消费、增加就业岗位、提升</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">经济活力和加速文化共融的角度提高认</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">识，推动全域旅游发展，提升自身形象，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">扩大对外开放程度。首先，着力打造全</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">域网络化、时空差异化的旅游产品。借</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">鉴长三角地区旅游业发展的成功经验，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">立足“东北一盘棋”，在打造温泉度假</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">旅游、冰雪旅游、消暑旅游和海岸旅游</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">等大型景区式旅游的基础上，利用“规</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">划统筹”的方式，有针对性地挖掘文化</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">旅游、乡村旅游、边境旅游和自驾旅游</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">等不同旅游特色节点，形成四季有差异、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">格局有统筹的一体化的旅游空间和多样</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">化的旅游线路。其次，加强政府主导的</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">旅游产业的品牌形象建设和创新服务监</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">管机制。旅游业对人口的吸引作用，不</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">仅在于其经济产出，还在于旅游者对区</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">域评价口口相传而形成的口碑形象。因</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">此，建议成立以省为单位的旅游产业运</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">行监管体系，对景区评级实行“能上能下”</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">的动态评估机制；鼓励组建“城市旅游</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">集团”，借鉴四川文旅集团开发“宽窄</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">巷子”的模式提高“城市旅游基础设施”</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">一体化建设水平；规范旅游营销活动、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">旅游节庆活动，推动优秀旅游节庆“以</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">奖代补”机制，惩治旅游活动虚假宣传。</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 17px;background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（三）加强跨境合作，吸引国内、国外就业人口</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">    “伴随经济增长的市场化改革程度</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">和市场发育的不平衡性”是决定人口迁</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">移方向的重要因素。东北三省应将对</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">外开放作为城市振兴战略的重要举措，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">放眼长远、立足全局，挖掘其地处东北</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">亚中心地带特有的地缘优势，吸引国内</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">外人口集聚。首先，加快国际合作产业</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">园区建设。吸取辽宁中德中巴、吉林中</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">朝中俄、黑龙江中以等产业合作经验，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">并积极吸引日本、韩国的纺织业、电子</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">制造业等产业的外资优势，在各自的双</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">边合作框架下争取国际产业合作园区落</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">户。其次，主动承接东部沿海地区的产</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">业转移，降低国内劳动力就业门槛，同</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">时为外国劳动力落户提供就业支持。再</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">次，给予沿边地区企业有利政策及配套</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">服务，提高报关、报检、核销效率以及</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">金融服务水平，加强与周边国家的企业</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">间合作，扩大对外开放政策试点，为外</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">向型产业集群生长创造土壤。最后，发</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">挥地缘优势，补齐东北三省服务业在对</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">外开放中的短板：一是开放创新型服务</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">业市场，搭建东北三省与周边国家的高</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">校、研究所、科研院和国家实验室的创</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">新合作平台；二是开放生产型服务业市</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">场，广泛吸引保险金融、文化咨询、教</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">育培训等境外企业在大连、沈阳、长春、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">哈尔滨等中心城市入驻。</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（四）</span><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">提高就业福利保障，营造友好型</span><span style="font-family: line-through;background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">人口落户、创业及创新环境</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">境</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">人口迁移与区域创新存在双向因果关系，人口迁入通过产生人力资本积累和知识溢出效应对区域创新影响显著，反过来区域创新水平提升能加快区域人口迁入。①借鉴全国19 个省市对口援疆的人才援助方式，在北京—沈阳，上海—大连，天津—长春、深圳—哈尔滨城市对口合作的基础上，深化东北地区和东部地区人才对口合作机制、扩大对口范畴，在东北三省选取更多中小城市作为试点，利用定期、定岗的公职互换、干部互派、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">相互挂职和定点培训的方式，扩大人才</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">异地培养进修、本地带动提升的辐射效</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">应，并采用对口城市绩效评比方式，对</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">提供帮助的城市提供政策和资金回报。</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">②在充分遵循市场规律的基础上，优化</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">政策环境，开拓性地对科研、教育、管</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">理、技术等领域人才采取组团式整体引</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">进，加快形成人才培养环境，尤其是注</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">重与产业相符的人才吸纳，促进东北三</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">省人才队伍的“造血”式培育。③制定</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">大学生就业吸引计划。针对不同学历、</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">不同年龄的大学毕业生采取不同的筑巢</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">引凤政策。如对于研究生学历以的上科</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">研和技术人才，侧重储备、留用，一旦</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">落户即可申请进入城市和省人才储备库，</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">给予留用金奖励或工作足年奖励；针对</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">研究生学历以下的大学生，侧重对其落</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">户的基本制度保障。④提高政府在创业</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">生态系统建设方面的诚信度，做到“简</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">政放权、说到做到”，消除创业者关于</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">政府设置行业性、地区性和经营性创业</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">壁垒的担忧；加大政府引导创业的绩效</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">考核力度，推广政府服务的典型经验。</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（五）建立更加包容的基本公共服务环境，让居者各得其所</span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: line-through;color: rgb(95, 95, 95);box-sizing: border-box;">为了规避整体风险、获得更多收益</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">和福利保障，会促使一个或多个家庭成员进行迁移，以提升整个家庭预期收益。从人口迁移到城市振兴，不仅要重视增加人口数量这个最终目标，还要进一步提升人口对生活品质、居住环境的满意度。①提高政府基本公共服务水平。充分发动群众查漏补缺，找出基本公共服务盲点，以“精准扶贫”的思路完善基本公共服务均等化建设；进一步明确政府在构建基本公共服务方面的责权关系，加强基础设施的市场化运作和政府监管力度，着力创新以政府为主导的多样化基本公共服务供给方式。②加强规划的统筹引导作用。加快推进各级国土空间规划编制，科学划定“生态空间”“农业空间”“城镇空间”，制定乡镇层面多样化的绩效考核体系、建立健全财政</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">转移支付制度，让生态空间得到有效发</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">展。③千方百计优化营商软环境。取消</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">没有法定依据的审批、投资限制、技术</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">性审查、公共产品及公共服务指定；尝</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">试通过“多规合一”工作建立通用审批</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">平台，支持推行并联审批，全面提高审</span><span style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);font-family: line-through;box-sizing: border-box;">批服务效能；妥善处理政府债务问题。</span></p></section><section style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">（六）发挥中小城市和县城对人口的</span><span style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);">吸引作用</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(95, 95, 95);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与东部沿海地区相比，中小城市和<span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">县域经济发展动力不足是东北三省人口</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">迁出的重要原因之一。①从长远和近期</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">两个角度，加大对中小城市的规划体系</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">重构。把握好正在推进的省级国体空间</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">规划编制机遇，加强对中小城市和县域</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">经济发展的战略引导，以公共服务设施、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基础设施和产业配套建设为重点进行年</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">度建设计划，构建有方向、分步骤、可</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">实施的“一张蓝图”。②加快县域特色</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">产业体系培育。把握“互联网+”，推广</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">海城经验，以其低成本、小规模、可推</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">广的特性带动一批产业发展；充分利用</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">好东北农业发展的资源优势，加快县级</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">农业发展，建设好粮食生产功能区、重</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">要农产品生产保护区和特色农产品优势</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">区，积极应对东部沿海产业转移，着力</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">发展以人口吸引为目标的劳动密集型产</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">业。③着力推动土地制度改革，激发农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">土地利用活力。与其他发达省份相比，东</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">北三省农村居民点用地使用明显粗放。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">重点推进农村产权流转交易市场、农村</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">集体经营性建设用地入市和农村土地经</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">营权抵押融资建设，深化农村土地征收</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">改革，让农民获得增值收益，有底气、</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">有意愿进入城镇工作生活；加强农村入</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">城群体的权益保障机制，将农民向城镇</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">转移与农民就业、转移后生活改善等联</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">系起来，积极稳妥地推进农民市民化。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;line-height: 0;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15px;border-width: 0px;padding: 0px 5px;line-height: 0;height: auto;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" 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border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 6px;height: 6px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 50%;border-color: rgb(180, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">来源：2020年增刊01期《规划师》杂志</p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(109, 103, 255);height: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(56, 56, 56);font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">新媒体编辑：苏子语</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">审读：王青</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">终审：杨一虹</p></section><section style="font-size: 0px;margin: 0px 0% -12px;transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(10px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 40px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 0px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 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data-ratio="0.605042" data-w="357" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfy5LSK28HHEVhYuyOjsRzwFa04Q820biaP3qsHN0D1S8zw9Jx7G2AYQrA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(255, 129, 36);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">识别图中二维码进入微店购买《规划师》杂志</p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1" data-w="850" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mhdC0GajWm6laC84Rj6XPic8icbRCECr54XcRHOtCfg0C3ib9RjGzatk32V0MAibia7p3OG6ax5DibAEctA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2962963" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mjSwkhLkJTBiaH4JD00InUqT6SKaD3LN8QNnuo47KsMwyU2jSYY44hib3D9uly3t4KfLDZZngL9xTWg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(38px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(38px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(38px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(38px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(197, 36, 36);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">《规划师》杂志社                                         </p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-webkit-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-moz-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);-o-transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(117, 114, 114);letter-spacing: 1px;line-height: 1.8;padding: 2px 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">地址：广西南宁市青秀区月湾路1号南国弈园6楼</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">邮编：530029</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">邮箱：planner@21cn.net</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">网址：www.planners.com.cn</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">电话：0771-2438012</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">传真：0771-2436269</p></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8518519" data-w="837" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/j8bTq15u0mj5UIUiaCYnr2Hk0StZjGgfyH7uDH8UGiaWhyiamicFUVxw1AgugSCcxdWsyQzWqrI0hiaHEKEM5yicOUVQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" width="100%" data-type="jpeg"  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