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<p><br  /></p><section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.25" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0Jebu6mZajZ5P8OZqic0BDgkGgy5ky1zt1dtMlZYEpwBmERlaGiaXmzAw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1000" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 5px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;flex: 0 0 0%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 0px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 2px;border-radius: 50%;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);background-color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 172, 63, 0.23);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(204, 17, 17);padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">摘 要</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 1px dashed rgb(204, 17, 17);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">人口的居住空间分布结构对于研判城镇实际发展质量具有重要作用。针对镇级或非独立统计单元的结构研究中，受限于人口普查数据、手机大数据支撑作用不足等问题，研究采用居民到户用水数据探讨动态监测城镇人口居住空间分布的方法。以花桥为例得出：此方法适用于发展日趋成熟的地区，可较好动态监测城镇居住人口分布、住房闲置率，但在职住关系方面还需要结合手机数据分析。最后，建议将此方法作为空间规划和城市治理的基础性工作。</p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 5px;letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 1px dashed rgb(204, 17, 17);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;flex: 0 0 0%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;font-size: 0px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;justify-content: flex-start;transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 10px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-width: 2px;border-radius: 50%;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);background-color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: auto;align-self: flex-end;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;background-color: rgba(255, 172, 63, 0.23);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(204, 17, 17);padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">关 键 词</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1.8px;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">空间分布结构 发展质量 动态监测 居民到户用水数据</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 16px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;flex: 4.1445 4.1445 0%;margin-top: -8px;height: auto;border-width: 0px;z-index: 1;border-style: solid;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: -12px;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;z-index: auto;padding: 5px 8px 5px 20px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">引 言</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">新时代，城市由速度优先转向高质量发展，城市空间结构优化则是高质量发展的重要内涵之一。研究城市空间结构可以从用地和人口两大方面入手。其中，用地的空间结构无论是土地与交通系统的整合、城市分区与组合关系、中心体系与城市形态、保护地区与城市布局的关系还是发展时序，都相对固定、显性，较易追踪（图 3）；而人口居住的空间分布结构和变化特征则是流动的、隐性的，较难监测。尤其在镇级行政单元或非独立统计单元的结构研究中，传统人口普查统计数据时效性差、且抽样统计单元过大，对于研究居住人口空间分布结构的支撑作用极为有限。手机信令大数据则囿于研究成本高、数据精度受基站分布和识别率限制等因素也较难广泛应用于此类空间结构的研究（图 1）。但是，居住人口空间分布对于研判城市实际发展状况、分析用地空间布局合理性具有不可或缺的作用。为此，本研究采用居民到户的用水量数据从资源消耗的角度表征居住人口，以花桥国际商务城为实证案例探讨城市居住人口空间分布与发展变化的研究方法。</span></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.27421875" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr01pu84PgmPCnMjiaQXJ9vicdFVdibWRxmAB5PGdbFkFAK5rlJJiazzJ2vPA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">1 某城市基站分布（左）</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">某城市各街道、镇手机用户识别率（右）</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.42564909520062943" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr00zSY1L1n9skAukiae3xYoYxbBWb2dSTJcia2hNPRchy68lCzaBr0C1RA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1271" style=""  /></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图2 花桥国际商务城区位</span></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.8696343402225755" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0eKT7FPmav3zvZVhQGphe6GXgFH539zCeT3D4UL73sI5bE5evHO3n8w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="629" style=""  /></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">3 花桥建设用地开发建成时序</span></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">花桥总面积52.33平方公里，是一座江南小镇，也是融入上海、面向世界、服务江苏的现代商务新城。经过十年的开发建设，取得了显著的发展成就，居民对花桥的认同度高。2017年，常住人口24.01万人，地区生产总值265亿元，三次产业结构为0.2 : 15.3 : 84.5。在新的发展环境下，花桥需要解决多种结构性问题。花桥的结构性调整需要对人的空间分布结构与需求有更精准的研究。为此，本课题组根据花桥2012-2017年居民到户用水每月抄表数据，结合实地踏勘、卫星影像识别，运用ArcGIS空间数据分析、大数据分析等方法，尝试开展以下研究：1）城市居住人口与用水量指标选择与测算；2）城市居住人口分布与发展变化监测分析；3）城市住房空置率（闲置率）监测分析；4）城市职住关系分析。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span></section><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 16px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;flex: 4.1445 4.1445 0%;margin-top: -8px;height: auto;border-width: 0px;z-index: 1;border-style: solid;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: -12px;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;z-index: auto;padding: 5px 8px 5px 20px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据分析方法</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 28px;"><br  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;border-style: none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 6px;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: -1px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;height: auto;border-top: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.1</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;padding-left: 8px;align-self: center;flex: 10 10 0%;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">数据获取</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 28px;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: left;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2012-2017年居民到户用水每月抄表数据，包括预付费和后付费两类。数据样式如下：</span></p><p style="text-align: left;text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.38984375" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0MGcmfzP7ia7tnKicIJFw8wQk7mbZ0eWVonAGZIUoXTeTNmG0DDjGlang/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""  /></p><p><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></p><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图4 预付费抄表数据（左）后付费抄表数据（右）</span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;border-style: none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 6px;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: -1px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;height: auto;border-top: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.2</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;padding-left: 8px;align-self: center;flex: 10 10 0%;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">数据处理方法</p></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;">第一步，将预付费每年、每月表格融合，利用SQL语句剔除干扰数据。数据量达到excel行数上限时，可使用数据库软件进行，本次研究使用Access Database。</section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.2739593417231365" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0iaZrTT0WunqjGL8z2ZMQgTr6oTziaACNsVrNmftJy1Sz4DxbaRJM6kyg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1033" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图5 预付费剔除查询</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.14910536779324055" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0SgOtibjicjxuq9Bmicvd3g2WQw4EncWicFcQZpVKrlibicIL84kOw8vBRxGw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1006" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图6 后付费剔除查询内容</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第三步，预付费和后付费融合后得到447万多条缴费记录，利用“查询-交叉表”创建地址-用水-时间矩阵，校验后得到154134户缴费矩阵；</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第四步，通过“地址”–“坐标”搜索缴费用户空间坐标进行定位，形成如下表格：</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表1到户用水抄表数据表</span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.30625" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0M14Mb4IKT4D8IZl3WvWqGkgrlSVeoSE40u9NWHDCgElz7ScdeMGalQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style=""  /></p><p><br  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第五步，将数据导入ArcGIS，结合用地开发时序进行空间关联，后续进行相互校核。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第六步，由于普通住宅与别墅耗水量差异较大，所以特别区分普通住宅、别墅两类数据。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.40859375" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0wnkgKGEJ4iaTWUgShc8CFZnuxpjibIUvxazBwQsONtzw1kDDI1mz4TsQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图7 居民用水数据与开发时序关联（左）</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">区分住宅与别墅（右）</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 16px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;flex: 4.1445 4.1445 0%;margin-top: -8px;height: auto;border-width: 0px;z-index: 1;border-style: solid;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: -12px;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;z-index: auto;padding: 5px 8px 5px 20px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">研究分<span style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;">析</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;border-style: none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 6px;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: -1px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;height: auto;border-top: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.1</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;padding-left: 8px;align-self: center;flex: 10 10 0%;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">居住人口人均用水量选择与计算</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第一步，居住人口人均用水量选择。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据气候区域、城市规模、经济发展水平、住宅类别查询居民用水定额指标（表 2、表 3），通过居民访谈调查居民生活习惯、年度用水情况检验用水定额的合理性。居民用水定额选取普通住宅130~320 L/(人·d)，别墅200~350 L/(人·d)。居民访谈中针对花桥居民构成，对花桥外包公司高管、公司白领、外来工人、老花桥居民和在花桥居住在上海工作等类型居民进行访谈，了解其生活习惯和家庭成员构成，不同人群用水数据的敏感度较住宅类型低，所选指标可较好覆盖各类人群（图 8）。</span></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">2 居民生活用水定额（L/(人·d)）</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.12710280373831775" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0adz9GeA1LibHe9ZlhPuGVM5OlsO4bUClG87T1pLkichUqbytsyUicGqlQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1070" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: left;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源：《江苏省城市生活与公共用水定额(2012年修订)》</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">3 住宅最高日生活用水定额及小时变化系数（L/(人·d)）</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.39342723004694835" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr04kLlLjpm8K8Fw42XUCPAecLeSqnfUEAGE3cHuImIagflVNz9icq2Zcw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1065" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: left;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源：《建筑环境与设备工程概论》</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.6944198405668733" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0KXaEBwMOKPEBoMXx5Smu40g7lz2VOC4EEaGibGQ2iawwIYzbiaOQz4zWQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1129" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">8 居民用水习惯调查</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第二步，通过下月抄表数据减去上月抄表数据计算每月用水量Δ</span><span style="font-size: 12px;">水</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">i，i=1~12；</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第三步，计算每年每月平均用水量</span><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.8676470588235294" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr04072vplpO8DFYL3ZLH6iaiblbtZFnj5Uoqg5DRynqYp8gpXsrvwKLKsw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="68" style="text-align: center;width: 36px;height: 30px;"  /><span style="text-indent: 2em;font-size: 16px;">，用以表示</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;font-size: 16px;">每年月平均用水量</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;font-size: 16px;">，公式如下：</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><section style="text-align: left;text-indent: 2em;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.45145631067961167" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0iazV8wsvKIflZLWJBtvUaJ5CVG4D5ewphWbRfFOXg0Do0mzxcj0k2Dw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="206" style="width: 142px;height: 64px;"  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其中，n为有水量变化的月的数量。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第四步，通过居民极限高低用水定额将每年月平均用水量转为极限高低人口数；</span></section><p><br  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第五步，判定闲置情况，以2017年闲置6个月以上为判定依据；</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第六步，判定初始入住年份，以抄表数据初变年为入住年。形成如下表格：</span></section><p><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">表4 到户每年人口极限值汇总表格</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.3328125" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0nyLwymTvhCIX67W3mQVbgmyUml94Mv0ibgMtDnzOnSYdGt2uWokFe6Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第七步，可用性检验。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.4108832807570978" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0ofdk9a9BrOm4vSphED1gdC8WCpvqz7u6hWWxbpicz8WSiadGle8ZVBhA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1268" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">9 花桥人口变化情况（单位：人）</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如图9所示，用水极限高、低人口规模逐渐与人口统计数据相吻合。可谓花桥城市发展日趋成熟，从只买不住的投资行为逐渐进入以居住生活为主的阶段，以用水数据分析城市人口分布情况参考价值日益凸显。此外，也需注意到2016年以前花桥存在一定量过度住房，此类过度住房在花桥城市开发过程中间歇地承担了搬迁居民、务工人员的短期居住功能，而这部分用水数据无法在付费数据中体现，也使得在城市大开发阶段用水人口数低于统计人口数据。</span></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><br  /><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;border-style: none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 6px;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: -1px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;height: auto;border-top: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.2</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;padding-left: 8px;align-self: center;flex: 10 10 0%;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">人口居住分布动态监测</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2012年，依托临沪区位，人口在高速公路出入口处快速聚集（图 10）。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2013年，地铁11号线开通运营，地铁沿线地块人口增长快速（图 11）。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2014年，限于地铁站站城一体化开发迟缓，地铁站周边人口聚集尚不明显（图 3、图 12）。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2015年，城市建设不断成熟，服务功能提升，人口入住率大幅提升（图 13）。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2016年，花桥东部区域人口规模呈现稳定态势，人口聚集随着城市向西拓展而得到延伸。地铁S2号线的规划预期进一步带动了花桥西部的房地产开发（图 14）。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br  /></span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2017年，上海建设全球城市，花桥依托交通区位优势、房价优势，成为临沪企业、在沪职员的首选居住地（图 15），花桥人口分布逐渐均衡。从POI分析中可以看到，城市公共服务及商业设施沿绿地大道聚集，与居住人口分布关系较为密切。但从居民访谈中得知居民普遍反映公共服务水平不高，花桥特殊的区位条件与居民构成对花桥自身公共服务质量和水平提出了更高的要求（图 16）。</span></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.70625" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0ibehdffOyJXD8KKiaP1QeSQGk5nS92rrXrZtKrl42kpeNlDBIa4oYRbw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style=""  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">10 2012年居住人口空间分布</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7073707370737073" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0Yy0XVls1VEBQogZF6paZUT466IPTviabfmBa7ag8aly7H8KDwN7ZNibw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="909" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:14px;line-height:150%;font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-size:14px;line-height:150%;font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-size:14px;line-height:150%;font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">11 2013</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">年居住人口空间分布</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7073707370737073" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0IQlOiazHL0icE7ibWkIruxPb3z7TsnOxpAwiaQMVGCJTicTdYbdunVjaXfA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="909" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">12 2014</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">年居住人口空间分布</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7073707370737073" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0hVCnKFR15qp2zqibYqE1jbq0I7sGesQWKpBGnVkesc0SERxppQ06NJg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="909" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:14px;line-height:150%;font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">13 2015</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">年居住人口空间分布</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7073707370737073" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0EvBxsaIGHUBZXNicwo252J5LK7oRAicwicBxbAQKgRU5FBHBiasYfCpENQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="909" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">14 2016</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">年居住人口空间分布</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7095709570957096" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0cHgpfZECI7mvVcpTiaFJWGDWyo8rISBttPdhJnnTtBg06XZ7LYficwbA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="909" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">15 2017年居住人口空间分布</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.47277032359905286" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0rDISfo0845y5W0cRb8wgtgFeBC7wZzyKfKxHjLAQ6ftxTbT7M7xdNg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1267" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:14px;line-height:150%;font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">16 花桥及周边主要</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">公共服务及商业设施</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">POI</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;border-style: none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 6px;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: -1px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;height: auto;border-top: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.3</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;padding-left: 8px;align-self: center;flex: 10 10 0%;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">城市住房空置率监测分析</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">对2017年闲置率进行分析。相较于偶然性较高的灯光监测，用水监测闲置率具有更高的准确率和可操作性。整体上，花桥入住率较高，闲置情况主要位于新建成楼盘。</span></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.706855791962175" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0aAn0rzAcVo2wicf5iaxjfveDwkTE92qsjPLy5HqibibyCk7ABRPE9lWS7g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1269" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图17 2017年花桥居住地块闲置情况</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">注：闲置率=闲置户数/楼盘总销售户数。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><br  /></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;border-style: none;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;transform: translate3d(1px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 6px;padding-left: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;margin: -1px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;flex: 0 0 auto;align-self: center;height: auto;border-top: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-top-left-radius: 0px;border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(255, 255, 255);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.4</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;padding-left: 8px;align-self: center;flex: 10 10 0%;height: auto;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">城市职住关系分析</p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从人口分布与企业分布情况来看，除北部工业区和西部数据产业园外，其余区域职住关系良好（图 18）。进一步与手机信令大数据跨城通勤特征研究相比较发现，花桥职住关系仍然存在职住分离的情况（图 19、图 20）。看似职住关系最优的东部先行区存在大量跨城通勤，再次验证了花桥城市开发的初始动力。而从周边六镇通勤情况来看，花桥的产业对周边乡镇具有较强的就业吸引力，已成为地区性就业中心。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><br  /></section><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">因此，采用到户用水数据进行职住关系分析更多的意义在于明确地块内的劳动力供给潜能与服务需求规模。职住关系中动态联系与跨城通勤研究仍然无法替代。</span></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7062445030782761" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0t8eGRJNpAjUsibc44QBAIsdJGjpDhB4gUZVNtaLic15cjCPVWK4QAb3g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1137" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">18 2017年职住关系分析</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"><br  /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.3720106288751107" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0FbaNfAtmsqQZMUq4kZ6UeFaFs5qWC2ibcGA33JpQEmUKZRlMic2j18dg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1129" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">19 花桥跨城通勤情况</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源：上海与周边城市跨城通勤特征研究，钮心毅，刘嘉伟</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span><br  /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.38440111420612816" data-s="300,640" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr09icoyJz9pjBu4DUmnWyFp4TuficTYPmMU5y1PEqmBdOlU6ntJtKgGQicw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1077" style=""  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);"></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">图</span><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">20 周边六镇流入花桥通勤情况与花桥流出到上海中心城通勤情况</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">资料来源：上海与周边城市跨城通勤特征研究，钮心毅，刘嘉伟</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: center;"><br  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;justify-content: center;margin: 16px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: auto;align-self: flex-start;flex: 4.1445 4.1445 0%;margin-top: -8px;height: auto;border-width: 0px;z-index: 1;border-style: solid;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 30px;height: 30px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: auto;align-self: center;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: -12px;flex: 100 100 0%;height: auto;z-index: auto;padding: 5px 8px 5px 20px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">总 结</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="text-indent: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">本研究针对镇级行政单元（或非独立统计单元），受限于传统普查统计时效性差、抽样统计单元大，手机信令大数据研究成本高、数据精度受基站分布和识别率限制等问题，以花桥国际商务城为例，通过居民到户的用水量数据研究该地区常住人口的分布、发展变化特征。研究得出如下结论：花桥城市发展日趋成熟，用水极限高、低人口规模逐渐与人口统计数据相吻合，以用水数据分析城市人口分布情况参考价值日益凸显；研究方法可以较好的对城市居住人口分布与发展变化、城市住房闲置率进行监测；可基于此研究分析结果进一步评价地区内土地供给、公共服务设施服务的空间绩效；在职住关系研究方面还需要结合手机信令数据的动态联系数据进行更细致的分析。最后，建议将此方法纳入城市信息监测平台，强化监督反馈，并作为城市规划和城市治理的基础性工作。</span></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="margin: 30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 3px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 172, 63);padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: flex;flex-flow: row nowrap;text-align: left;justify-content: flex-start;margin: -15px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;border-style: none solid;border-width: 1px 3px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(58, 153, 159) rgb(255, 172, 63);min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;flex: 0 0 auto;height: auto;align-self: flex-start;padding: 3px 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-left: 3px solid rgb(234, 44, 44);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;border-right: 3px solid rgb(234, 44, 44);border-top-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(234, 44, 44);letter-spacing: 2px;line-height: 1.5;text-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px -1px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px, rgb(255, 255, 255) -1px 1px, rgb(255, 255, 255) -1px -1px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 0px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 0px 1px, rgb(255, 255, 255) -1px 0px, rgb(255, 255, 255) 0px -1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">作者介绍</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">邢栋</strong>  规划设计五所 规划师 工程师 城乡规划学硕士 研究方向为城市-区域发展和规划</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">王骏</strong>  规划设计五所 规划师 工程师 城乡规划学学士 研究方向为大数据与城市发展</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 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1px;height: 15px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(249, 110, 87);text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 2;padding-right: 20px;padding-left: 20px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;">此课题受上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;">种子计划科研资助</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;">扫码获取种子计划申请表<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(234, 44, 44);box-sizing: border-box;">种子计划课题申报邮箱：research@tjupdi.com</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.1805556" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E4LhH9HickWCibzVibIZoNsRHlOpzW08Kr0ibcjMXGa2LXMkdr3iaoX3IAksezunzBddkzROqoHY5qefzz5OyQiaqrng/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><p><br  /></p>
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