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<section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="width: 578px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.48px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;vertical-align: top;display: inline-block;white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="text-align: center;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: rgb(255, 183, 102);border-radius: 0px;width: 578px;height: auto;line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="bottom: auto;box-sizing: border-box;left: auto;line-height: 0;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;right: auto;top: auto;"><img data-ratio="0.49114583333333334" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1920" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDfMWYNOz9tUJMaF8hT2GaSHZQT5ksn3dibRNltMChrl6wtjvw37aLtglKusd1qQBOuloEGhZBBsN5w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="578" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="445" style="border-color: initial;border-style: initial;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;vertical-align: middle;visibility: visible;width: 578px;"  /></span></section></section><section powered-by="gulangu" style="margin-top: -68px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="border-width: 0px;border-style: initial;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-radius: 1px;width: 578px;overflow: hidden;vertical-align: top;display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="text-align: right;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(15px, 0px, 0px);justify-content: flex-end;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="vertical-align: top;display: inline-block;min-width: 10%;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: matrix(1, 0, -0.2, 1, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: translate3d(30px, 0px, 0px);overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="padding: 10px 20px 10px 30px;width: 206.9px;background-image: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(231, 59, 112) 0%, rgba(231, 59, 112, 0) 100%);line-height: 1;letter-spacing: 2px;vertical-align: top;display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="flex-flow: row;display: flex;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;transform: matrix(1, 0, 0.2, 1, 0, 0);overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;flex: 100 100 0%;width: auto;height: auto;vertical-align: bottom;display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;align-self: flex-end;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="text-align: justify;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5;letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 24px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="min-height: 1em;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 18px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">靠谱规划云</strong></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">  </strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word;">            </span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我研究中国人口流动与经济的关系已经超过10年了，10年前，我国农民工流向一直是从西到东，如今则是从东到西；广东长期以来一直是中国人口流入的第一大省，但2019年常住人口仅为广东一半左右的浙江，人口净流入量居然超过广东——以上这些转折性变化的背后，究竟是什么原因呢？未来中国经济发展空间较大的区域在哪里？本文试作分析。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><hr style="max-width: 100%;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(185, 58, 32);font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">321国道：一场变迁一场梦</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(171, 25, 66);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">十年前，我写了一篇文章，叫《从国道到高铁:一场变迁一场梦》，认为中国能够成为全球制造业第一大国，主要是靠本国大量的农村廉价劳动力转移。作为中国的第一大省广东，其制造业得以迅猛发展的人力资源要素大量来自中西部地区的农村。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在没有高速之前，国道是中国交通的命脉，即便现在，也同样承担着货物运输的重要作用。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">321国道，从成都出发，经过内江、泸州、贵阳、桂林、梧州、肇庆至广州，跨越四个省，长度为2220公里</strong>。这是一条非常值得纪念的道路，因为它是从西部通向中国经济最发达的省份广东，通向让中国成为制造业大国的珠江三角洲。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此，321国道是一条我国中西部农民迁徙之路，四川是中国人口第一大省（在重庆没有设直辖市之前），也是外出农民工最多的省份，而贵州因地少人多导致贫困；与321国道挨得比较近的是湘西，也属于非常贫困的地区，而即便是粤西，同样也是比较贫困。这些地区的外出农民，在过去40年中，不断地沿着321国道去珠江三角洲地区打工。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上世纪80年代初，广东人口才5000多万，到2000年，增加至8642万，2019年则达到11521万人，成为人口第一大省。不过，近年来，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角的农民工已经开始净流出，其中2018年净流出186万，2019年净流出118万</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">      </span><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5446808510638298" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="470" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsK9RRVibJFFcos9XC9fhNMiaibzNwb3uvibQnjfhtcvLnYdEpZ4zV0Ms4Rw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 470px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局《全国农民工监测调查报告》</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角的农民工是什么时候还是出现净流出？估计也是近两年的事。如2018年长三角的农民工还是净流入的，到2019年就出现了净流出，东部地区的农民工数量也是从2018年开始净减少的。也就是说，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的农民工在大致经历了近40年的东移之后，开始陆续返回老家。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2010年前，每逢春节，大约有十几万摩托车大军沿着321国道返回广西、贵州、湖南和四川老家过年，成了春运交通线上一道特殊的风景。如今，有了高速和高铁，分流了国道的客流量。而且，随着流动人口数量的减少，321国道也随之变得不如过去那么繁忙了。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">去年我们曾经根据分地区<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">彩票销量和发电量增速变化比较这两个维度来寻找农民工的迁徙路径</strong>——福利彩票的主要购买者是包括农民工在内的中低收入群体，而发电量增速的变化反映经济活跃度。数据分析表明，作为<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中西部地区的四川、云南、安徽三省的彩票销售相对增速较高，而且用电量相对增速也较高</strong>，反映了经济活跃程度要高于全国平均水平，也从另一个侧面印证了农民工流向的变化。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">尽管珠三角的农民工在大量流出，但从过去三年的数据看，广东依然是人口净流入的第一大省。例如，2018年净广东（绝大部分流入珠三角）净流入人口80多万，但珠三角农民工净流出就达186万，这意味着珠三角的非农民工人口净流入近270万。因此，非常明显地看出，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">珠三角的人口变迁实际上是在“腾笼换鸟”，而且依然是全国人口流动量最大的区域</strong>。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">尽管珠三角和长三角在过去两年中农民工数量都出现了净减少，但东部地区的人口依然呈现明显的流入，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如2019年我国东部省份人口净流入规模超过150万</strong>。若按照秦岭-淮河一线来划分南北方的话，则2019年南方省份人口净流入达到167万。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2017年后中国人口“东迁”规模持续走高</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.7220216606498195" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsY7ZeRLfvTrAPiaZCoxgc7eOHToTQv3Z4Pl61QWdcUmSWvW6fteDPIZA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 554px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此，这些来中国人口的流向结构已经发生了显著变化，尽管总体流向没有发生变化，但<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全国人口的大趋势是在往长三角和珠三角集中</strong>；</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">与此同时，西部和中部地区的农民工数量都在增加，反映出部分传统产业和出口加工业已经迁至中西部省份。</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">即<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">人口大方向是“雁南飞”，农民工则是“孔雀西南飞”。</strong></span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2019年中国各省市人口净流入（出）图</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.5397111913357401" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsKDMmMnEIiamtgoOuCpPYQAZPicp0jHJhSgnARq4s6D0GibVXIYgWuGKPQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 554px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局，中泰证券研究所</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><hr style="max-width: 100%;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(185, 58, 32);font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">集聚超乎预期——部分人口净流出省份更为突出</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2019年浙江和广东人口净流入规模就达到了84.1万和82.6万，在全国各省市中遥遥领先。根据我们计算，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">70%以上的人口净迁入量都流向了浙江和广东两省</strong>，而前两年这个比例都只有60%左右。与其说人口流向了东部和南方省份，不如说是更加集聚地流向了广东和浙江两省，“二八”现象愈发明显。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">以2019年人口净流入第一的浙江为例，杭州人口净迁入49.35万人，宁波人口净迁入30.07万人，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这两个城市净流入人口占省内各地市净迁入总量的90%以上</strong>。说明即便人口净流入最多的省份，除了杭州和宁波这两个大城市外，其他城市基本上“抢”不到人。人口净流入第二的广东情况也类似，大部分的人口都流向了深圳、广州和佛山，而其他大部分城市甚至还在净流出。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">反过来看，即便是全国人口过去三年净流出最多的人口大省山东，下辖的<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">济南、青岛、烟台和威海四大城市的人口一直在净流入。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.6552346570397112" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpstsWiad8eUpmPJuD6ZAviaG9tJSia3qKibUiagEpERceLvgRxJCFXm82ibjZQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 554px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局，中泰证券研究所</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">说明山东作为全国经济体量第三的大省，尽管人口净流出规模第一，但经济发展和人口集聚亮点城市还是比较多的。先相比之下，中西部的有些人口净流出的省份就只呈现“一枝独秀”了，如2019年江西除了南昌和陕西除了西安人口是净流入的，其他省内城市人口几乎都是净流出。此外，山西、河南、湖北、甘肃等省份，基本上都只有1-2个城市人口在净流入，其余城市人口均在净流出。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.7222222222222222" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="450" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsjBUnffFfFLF6HAH2ic7NR9Dy6S8Jrza94QIHlyt8cHN6ypmMY9bmlsw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 450px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局，中泰证券研究所</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.8031088082901554" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="386" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsmjVtgicQLWhqSXIcHXxwASic0ibUGXk12BP4mNiamHEb01iceRYt7I7f4cw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 386px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局，中泰证券研究所</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此，抛开行政区划概念，总体来看，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一、二线城市人口呈现净流入，三四五线城市人口则呈现净流出</strong>，中国已经步入城镇化的后期，大城市化则方兴未艾。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国大城市化加快，三四五线城市人口净流出</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.41335740072202165" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="554" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsc3ZH2POUDuTNpJkD3pibticTIJyrGY02Mmib5ufhmeVK59sExUZcIYxXQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 554px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(171, 25, 66);font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局，中泰证券研究所</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">进一步分析，发现新一线城市如成都、杭州、武汉、南京、合肥、佛山等人口流入规模更大，而一线城市中北京和上海早就设置了人口规模的控制闸门，故人口规模很难较快扩张。<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">从2015年开始，我国的流动人口数量逐年减少</strong>，这主要是由于当前人口结构已经类似于日本的90年代，即老龄化水平大幅提高，这意味着中国城市化进程会不断放缓。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">那么，在城市化进程放缓的背景下，有限的流动人口为何不是相对均匀地流向一二三线城市，而是集中涌向少数几个大城市呢？那是因为制造业规模化经营的要求。根据世界银行的案例归纳研究得出的结论，经济密度增加一倍，生产率提高6%，而与中心城市的距离扩大一倍，利润就下降6%。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">当前中国经济增速不断放缓，投资回报率持续下降，这就要求劳动力、资本、技术和土地这些生产要素进一步集聚，才能节省成本，同时提高劳动生产率。因此，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">未来一线和新一线的人口集中度还将继续提升，集中度或许会超乎大家想象。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section><hr style="max-width: 100%;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(185, 58, 32);font-size: 17px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">要避免建成没有人口流入的“中心”</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">根据《中国开发区审核</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">公告</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">目录(2018年版)》审核结果显示，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">国家级开发区有552家</strong>。其中，国家级开发区中</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">经济技术开发区</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">达到219家；</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">高新技术产业开发区</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">和海关特殊监管区，数量为156家和135家；边境/</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">跨境经济合作</span><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">区分别为19家。自贸区18家（截止2019年）。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></p><p style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">此外，还有很多个国家级的经济特区、计划单列市、中心城市和新区等（为表述方便，这些不同类型的“区”都简称“经济中心”或“中心”）。但是，究竟有多少建成达标，多少半途而废呢？迄今似乎没有人统计过。</span></p><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">就当前而言，建各类“中心”的难度越来越大，因为中国经过40多年的改革开放和经济建设，区域经济和产业经济的格局基本形成，与此同时，人口流、资金流、物流等的流动性都在减弱。例如，我国的劳动年龄人口从2012年开始减少，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">已经持续8年累计减少了2800多万</strong>。2021年以后，减少幅度会进一步加大。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">尽管目前各大城市都加大了人才引进力度，如提高人才落户的各种补贴、降低落户的学历门槛，但“抢人”的效果仍是有限的，除了新一线城市在抢人方面有天然优势外，如杭州、南京等，大部分城市的效果不明显。这说明，要想持续地吸引人口，仅靠高成本的人才政策是不够的，关键还要看当地产业能否持续发展。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在2019年全国常住人口增量最多的前十大城市中，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前八大城市分别分布在粤港湾大湾区、杭州湾湾区和长江经济带上</strong>。说明中国人口集聚的城市在进一步集中。如前所述，浙江和广东两省就占了全国人口净流入量的70%。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="1.376" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="375" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/eI6OjcLvBlnc1YYIjPCJnJxIroLsDhpsoH9TicfYvR2KnU0QnRbA7TovJm3sicsNDGHXKA4oHOuraXTcUqS3GUiaA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width: 375px !important;visibility: visible !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">数据来源：国家统计局，中泰证券研究所</span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">相比之下，长三角的另两个省：<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">江苏和安徽，2019年人口净流入量分别仅为2.5万和4.5万人</strong>，几乎可以忽略。即便在浙江，浙南和浙西的衢州、金华、温州、台州的人口也出现净流出。广东也是如此，经济发现相对落后的粤西、粤北和粤东，人口也呈现净流出局面。因此，细分人口净流入的结构，不难发现，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2019年全国人口净流入城市中，70%左右的净流入人口都集中到了粤港湾大湾区和杭州湾湾区的城市。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">从理论上讲，建立各类经济中心，实际上就是为了集聚各类生产要素，如劳动力、资金和技术，但由于要素资源是有限的，经济中心设立越多，中心的达标率就越低。更何况今后我国劳动年龄人口数量越来越少，人口集中度却越来高，那么，国内现存的各类经济中心是否也会面临人口减少的严酷现实呢？</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">例如，汕头曾经是我国首批批准建立的四大经济特区这一，目前常住人口数量少于户籍人口数量，说明人口已经净流出；2010年批准设立的喀什经济特区，2019年也出现了人口净流出，当时的经济增长目标是到2015年人均GDP达到全国平均水平，如今大约只有全国平均水平的三分之一。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此，要成为一个经济中心，是需要组织各类生产要素资源的集聚，组织资源可以由企业来担当，也可以由政府来担当，但往往前者更加市场化，更容易成功。例如深圳有腾讯、华为、平安、招商银行等一批企业巨头，杭州有阿里巴巴、吉利汽车、荣盛等的巨头，宁波则拥有国家制造业39家单项冠军企业，居全国第一。而且，不论是杭州湾湾区还是粤港湾湾区，都属于民营企业占比极高的区域。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在全球经济分化的时代，不少企业巨头富可敌国，如7月6日，美国四家科技公司：苹果、亚马逊、微软和Alphabet均超过1万亿美元，<strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">加起来超过日本的GDP总额</strong>。因此，不少城市的经济中心地位是靠一些企业的高成长而形成的。</span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">因此，对某些过去30多年来反复被赋予各类经济中心头衔的地区，我们不妨思考一下：如果经过过去30年的努力都没有建成某类经济中心，若又被赋予的新使命，还会成功吗？在进入存量经济主导的时代，看一个城市的发展前景如何，其中人口的增减量是一个比较靠谱的指标。<br  /></span></section><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br  /></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by gulangu" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" data-color="#ac1d10" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 8px 20px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: 楷体_GB2312;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">风险提示：</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: 楷体_GB2312;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">经济下行，政策变动。</span></strong></span></section><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;">注：</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;text-align: right;">本文分享自“李迅雷金融与投资”微信号, 特此鸣谢.</span><br  /></p><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;white-space: normal;width: 375.68px;font-size: 16px;vertical-align: top;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding: 10px;vertical-align: top;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;box-shadow: rgba(159, 160, 160, 0.5) 0px 0px 10px;"><section style="padding: 7px;box-sizing: border-box;box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.29) 0px 0px 10px inset;"><section style="width: 327px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section powered-by="gulangu" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><span class="js_jump_icon h5_image_link" data-positionback="static" style="bottom: auto;left: auto;right: auto;top: auto;"><img data-ratio="1.495" data-type="jpeg" data-w="400" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/qAEVTTssxDeJfibicRrUubZOKtUdFfHVS7KNdYuezoaHPEr6qJUCiaw6gv8HV0FR1AN1o5icuCsSPicXnZ32Cm5yDsA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="327" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="401" data-copyright="0" style="height: 489px;box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 327px;"  /></span></section></section></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 8px 20px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 黑体, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: 楷体_GB2312;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1.2" data-type="jpeg" data-s="300,640" data-w="50" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/qAEVTTssxDfkCyIPiaKRxGLWsVz5SZBChuuszynibrlfSF28YZ2TJjiasv1ibVlF0XexSI43PbMUeXdT1C0XoZnYCg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-copyright="0" style="font-size: 15px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"  /><span style="font-size: 15px;font-variant-numeric: normal;font-variant-east-asian: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> 人口与发展</span></span></strong></span></section></section></section>
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