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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;text-align: justify;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 5px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcxZNTLDibcsu8IusbUryz1G80rpmkyKQefG8g1HN4AHia8mOSmZaKQWyQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 70%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(153, 166, 171);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;">欢迎点击以上蓝色字体</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">关注</p></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 15%;padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.91" data-w="100" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcxZNTLDibcsu8IusbUryz1G80rpmkyKQefG8g1HN4AHia8mOSmZaKQWyQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(254, 193, 192);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 4px;clear: both;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;clear: none;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">作者北京清华同衡规划设计研究院有限公司牛成，北京清华同衡规划设计研究院有限公司副总规划师、详细规划研究中心副主任曹宇钧在《规划师》2020年第1期撰文，划定近郊镇城镇开发边界需要研究大都市和近郊镇的发展需求。文章针对大都市主要发展方向上的城镇与限制发展方向上的典型近郊镇，提出都市融入、双弹性区和紧约束3 种典型近郊镇开发边界划定模型，并以徐州市铜山区近郊镇为例，采用适宜性分析与CA-Markov 模型模拟的方法，判断徐州市的空间需求，采用3 种模型试划典型近郊镇城镇开发边界，以期为其他城市近郊镇城镇开发边界划定提供参考。</p></section><section style="width: 50%;border-width: 3px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(42, 118, 162);float: right;margin-top: -6px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 12px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 关键词 ] 大都市；近郊镇；开发边界；模型</p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(56, 30, 5);letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 4px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文章编号 ]1006-0022(2020)01-0073 -07　　</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 中图分类号 ]TU984</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 文献标识码 ]B </p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">[ 引文格式 ]<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">牛成，曹宇钧．大都市发展视角下的近郊镇城镇开发边界划定模型研究——以徐州市铜山区近郊镇为例[J]．规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">师，2020(1)：73-79．</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">常见的城镇开发边界划定方法和模型</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2006年，建设部颁布的《城市规划编制办法》提<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">出了“研究中心城区空间增长边界”的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要求；2013 年，中央城镇工作会议和《国</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020 年)》提</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">出了划定城市开发边界的要求；2014 年，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">全国14 个试点城市开展了开发边界划定</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">工作，北京大学的林坚教授对14 个大城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市采用的方法进行了梳理，概括为“先</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">底后图”的反向法和以城市发展需求为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">着眼点的正向法，并指出在实际工作中，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">试点城市采用以反向法为主、以正向法</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为辅的方式来划定开发边界。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在城市开发边界的划定方面，龙瀛<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等人提出了利用约束性元胞自动机来制</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定城市增长边界的方法；林坚等人提</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">出了“先底后图”“红线倒逼”“动态</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">平衡”“换调结合”的划定原则[3]；曹</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">靖等人提出了在用地限制性和适宜性评</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">价的基础之上，采用ArcGIS 空间分析模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">块模拟生态约束条件下的城市空间增长</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">趋势，从而划定城市开发边界的方法；</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">沈洁等人提出了“理思路—定底线—理需</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">求—定规模—定形态—建机制”的“六步</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">走”城镇开发边界划定方法；周祥胜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等人提出了“五定”结合(定容量、定总量、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定格局、定边界、定机制) 的划定技术方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">法；汤燕良等人提出了综合运用耦合</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">神经网络与元胞自动机划定开发边界的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方法。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2019年6月，《广州市国土空间规<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划(2018—2035 年)》草案公示，其中划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定了城镇开发边界，开发边界内包含为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">应对城市发展的不确定性而划定的弹性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展区，以及为保持城镇开发边界的完</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">整性而划定的与城市密切相关的，具有生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">态涵养、休闲游憩、防护隔离、自然和历</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">史文化保护等功能的特别用途区(图1)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.8186398" data-w="397" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcMialhhhOzmCwXjK5ibE1myuFs6qobmGOrRnXd9PA2edothYRAYVib5Xxw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">近郊镇的特殊性和常见城镇开发</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">边界模型的不适应性</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">首先，近郊镇空间形态、城镇职能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的不确定性难以应对。当前我国多数大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都市还处于空间拓展发展阶段，虽然城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市空间拓展方式不尽相同，但近郊镇多</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">为大都市空间拓展的首选之地。近郊</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇承担了大都市生态安全格局构建、水</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">源地保护、基本农田保护和总量控制等</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">责任，部分近郊镇由于布局了服务于大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都市的重大项目，占用和分割近郊镇空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间，重大机遇项目在近郊镇难以寻找落</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地空间。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其次，近郊镇不同发展阶段的发展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">需求难以满足。试点城市行政级别高、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市规模大，多为所在区域的中心城市，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划定开发边界的主要目的是限制城市无</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">序蔓延，预留的弹性空间有限。近郊镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">因城镇规模较小，参照试点城市方法划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定城镇开发边界，既可以满足本镇发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的需求，又可以应对大都市发展需求预</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">留的弹性不足。在紧约束的开发边界划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定方法下，对于可推动城镇发展的重大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">机遇项目，尤其是重大设施或公共服务</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">项目，由于空间限制落地难度大，把握</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">机遇难。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">近郊镇城镇开发边界划定的技术</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">路径和模型</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）大都市层面统筹的城镇开发边界划定</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大都市空间需求和发展方向</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">判断</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">大都市的行政区划调整、轨道交通<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">线路或主要道路的布局和延伸，都可能</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对近郊镇的发展方向、产业结构和空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">形态等产生影响，因此对大都市空间发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展的研究，是近郊镇城镇开发边界划定</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的基础。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">通过对大都市发展的区位条件、区<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">域职能、发展阶段、国家或区域重大设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">施布局、限制性因素等进行分析，以及</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">对大都市发展的主要空间拓展方向进行</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">判断，发现对于处于大都市发展方向上</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的近郊镇与处于限制发展方向上的近郊</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇，在划定城镇开发边界时应该采用不</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">同的态度。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大都市和近郊镇的开发适宜性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">评价</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在大都市与近郊镇范围内均需开展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">资源环境承载力评价，大都市已经完成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市域范围资源环境要素单项评价的，近</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">郊镇可以直接采纳大都市的生态评价成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">果，此外还应开展土地资源、水资源、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">环境和灾害等单项评价，并在此基础上</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">完成大都市和近郊镇的资源环境承载力</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">评价。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">在大都市与近郊镇范围内均需开展<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土空间开发适宜性评价，将全域空间</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划分为生态保护极重要区、重要区和一</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">般区，农业生产适宜区、一般适宜区和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不适宜区，以及城镇建设适宜区、一般</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜区和不适宜区。结合大都市的发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">阶段，应对人口和城镇规模进行综合研</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">究与预测，明确大都市主要空间拓展方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">向上的潜力。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）基于大都市发展方向的典型近郊镇类型界定</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">近郊镇可以划分为鼓励拓展的城镇、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">限制拓展的城镇和一般城镇。通过对大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都市发展需求的判断，明确大都市的发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展方向和限制发展方向，与大都市或近</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">郊镇的开发适宜性评价结果进行综合考</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">量。将位于大都市发展方向上，且经过</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">开发适宜性评价后认为较为适宜集中开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发建设的近郊镇，作为鼓励拓展的典型</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇，未来鼓励城镇进行空间拓展，或</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">作为承接大都市项目的落地空间；将位</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于大都市的限制发展方向上，经过开发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">适宜性评价后认为不适宜进行集中开发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建设的近郊镇，作为限制拓展的典型城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇，在未来不鼓励进行大规模的城镇空</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">间拓展；其他城镇则作为非典型城镇。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）典型近郊镇城镇开发边界划定的3种模型</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.都市融入模型</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">与大都市呈一体化发展趋势的近郊<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇，可采用都市融入模型，纳入大都市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展边界。对于大都市的空间需求较为</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">迫切、自身发展条件较好及城市建设适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">宜性较高的近郊镇，可考虑纳入大都市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">开发边界以内，作为规划期内大都市城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市空间拓展的主要承接地。此类城镇的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">开发边界划定可基于大都市发展方向和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">空间拓展需求研究的成果，与大都市开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发边界同步划定(图2)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.437037" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcoI0bot2epylyOZiboSNVh8grUxNqFRQrlpc4wGgp5sA29EWXqTzdPpw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.双弹性区模型</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">不纳入大都市开发边界的近郊镇，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">可划定为大都市弹性发展区。对于一定</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">时期以内不需纳入大都市开发边界的近</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">郊镇，应考虑大都市人口转移需求，与</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上位国土空间规划进行校核，确定近郊</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇的人口和建设用地规模，划定城镇开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发边界。在城镇开发边界以外，可以划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">定为落实市级重大项目预留的市级弹性</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">空间，保障重大项目落地，但不应对近</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">郊镇的城镇发展和居民生活造成负面影</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">响( 图3)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4342593" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYctmQuH01vmg5icocvzbSZL9KiaETax2JqKbfibibia9cBbiaciaXgEkgnfjUQw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.紧约束模型</p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">对于限制拓展类近郊镇，应划定约<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">束较紧的开发边界。此类城镇及周边的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生态敏感性较高，或因镇区周边的地形</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地貌、工程地质条件差等，造成城镇建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设的适宜性不高，生态保护和城镇安全</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">保障是其发展的基本前提。限制拓展类</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">近郊镇城镇开发边界的划定，以保护生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">态红线、保障城市安全性为目标，应留</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">下较少的弹性空间；对于城镇人口规模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">下降、建设用地不迫切的近郊镇，可考</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">虑通过区级或市级协调，向建设用地指</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">标需求迫切的近郊镇倾斜(图4)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4287037" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcibkYSlFrwW7jeS196CkOBL6XoFqG2iaR6sETxdMujj08pbXWPWBwD10Q/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;border-radius: 1em;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 0.3em 0.8em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">徐州市铜山区近郊镇城镇开发</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">边界试划</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（一）研究背景</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2017 年6 月，国务院批复了《徐州<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市城市总体规划(2007—2020 年)(2017</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年修订)》，确定了徐州市“国家历史文</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">化名城，全国重要的综合性交通枢纽，</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">淮海经济区中心城市”的城市定位，将</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">铜山区纳入徐州市中心城区。铜山区行</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">政范围涵盖了徐州市多数近郊城镇，是</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">典型的发展中的大都市近郊镇集中分布</span><span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">区域。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2019年5月，徐州市启动《徐州市<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">国土空间总体规划(2019—2035 年)》编</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">制工作，将铜山区茅村镇、柳新拾屯片</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区、刘集镇、大彭镇、汉王镇、铜山城区、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">棠张镇和张集镇作为研究对象，研究开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发边界的划定方法和提出试划建议。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（二）铜山区近郊镇开发适宜性分析</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">铜山区近郊镇构成了徐州市的主要</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">生态屏障，徐州市内大洞山、云龙山、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">吕梁山、微山湖、云龙湖、故黄河、京</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">杭运河等主要山体和水体，均全部或部</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">分分布于铜山区行政范围内，因此铜山</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区承担着保障徐州市生态安全、改善生</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">态环境的重要责任，区内生态敏感性较</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">高。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在铜山区行政区划范围内，有楚王</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">山生态公益林、铜山圣人窝森林自然保</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">护区、小沿河饮用水水源地保护区、房</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">亭河清水通道维护区和废黄河重要湿地</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等多种生态红线分布，涉及本次研究的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">多个近郊镇(表1，图5)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4416667" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcB9poxwq6LWt1Ev6FiaNgOJviad8Jz7cIn2ELGnU7Xu8xGllwjiaDRgLEA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.0769231" data-w="572" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcsdcJG7yHSSZVHAuqRS4wBCytia4Q3ffBSjB6wPK4qTRtvpP3q67cCYA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（三）徐州市城市规模和发展方向判断</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于历史数据测算徐州市人口</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和建设用地规模</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(1) 徐州市人口规模和城镇化率水平<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">将保持稳定增长。2006～2012年，常</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">住人口数呈现缓慢下降特征，在2012年</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">左右达到最小值，当前已开始逐步稳定</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上升。当前徐州市城镇化水平处于30％</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">～70％的高速增长区间，年均增长1.72</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">个百分点，城镇化率接近70％，逐步接</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">近高速增长末期，未来增速将逐步放缓。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">(2) 徐州市建设用地规模将进一步扩<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大。根据对《徐州市城市总体规划(2007—</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2020 年)》(2015 年修订) 及徐州市统计</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年鉴的解读，对徐州市2035年、2050</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年的人口规模、中心城区建设用地规模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">进行测算，预计2035 年中心城区人口规</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">模约达到400 万人，城镇建设用地规模</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">约为400km2( 表2)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.462037" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYc58Gwlkn2TwCKL2nef8eAQknianeMpjNyruhU1K1HFLgzelJTKmKBvnw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于规划要求和大数据判断</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">徐州市的主要发展方向</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">《徐州市城市总体规划(2007—2020<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年)》(2015年修订)将铜山区纳入主城区，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">确定了规划期内“中心城区建设用地以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">向东和东南方向发展为主，控制向西北</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方向发展，严格限制向西南发展”的城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市主要发展方向。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">滴滴公司基于自身数据，绘制了徐<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">州市等100 个城市的交通OD分析图和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">反映城市流动的城市星云图，较为明确</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地反映了徐州市主城区与其正南方的铜</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">山城区方向、东南经徐州新区和张集镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">向观音机场方向、东北向贾汪区方向的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">交通联系最为频繁，铜山区与徐州市主</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城区基本上实现了一体化发展(图6)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.5546296" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYc95Yv5gPKrtic4SLpK1NAUkuBuW5GcicdUrz5icv2qRw43Xs3us1Rict6Bg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">基于徐州市城市总体规划和滴滴公<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">司数据判断，当前徐州市中心城区已经</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">与铜山城区实现了连片发展，随着铜山</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城区的建设，两个城区的联系将进一步</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">加强，中心城区已经实现了向南拓展。</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">在与徐州市城区外围的空间联系上，向</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">东北( 贾汪区) 和东南( 铜山城区) 两个</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">方向联系最为频繁，未来徐州市主城区在</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">东南方向( 即棠张镇、张集镇) 方向将呈</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">现较为明显增长的态势。</span></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于CA-Markov 模型模拟徐州市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市空间增长</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据中国多时期土地利用遥感监测<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">数据集(CNLUCC) 中的徐州市2005年、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">2018年的土地利用数据，采用IDRISI </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Salva软件，对徐州市城区范围的建设用</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地演变情况进行分析，模拟2035 年徐州</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市土地利用情况(表3)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4083333" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcOAmktKvDeW8ClUicX6QPPHO7OPVQbHHPZHfYeq4SmdtjianY7U9VLtvw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">根据徐州市2005年与2018年的土<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地利用现状，可得出2005～2018年6</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">种主要用地性质之间转换的Markov 矩</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">阵，此矩阵反映了不同类型用地的转化</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">概率，作为利用CA-Markov 模型模拟徐</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">州市中心城区2035年土地利用情况的基</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">础(表4，图7)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.4055556" data-w="1080" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcgBgwD6EiaKnswzKp4nQqZe7SzlwVaYD1OiaVxsz0NaDpaKtH6TfszBMQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.793854" data-w="781" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYczJdMDicrsxlzqgKkqjx72xlLibaoYaaUAtEN7P5AibZI2Na5gfFB2tccg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由CA-Markov 模型模拟可知，2035<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">年徐州市城乡居民点用地将进一步扩张，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">但受到各种限制性因素的影响，扩展速</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">度显著降低；徐州新区与中心城区联系</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">越发紧密，将实现一体化发展；中心城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区周边呈现明显的轴向增长态势，以中</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">心城区向柳新镇方向、徐州新区向张集</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇方向、铜山城区向棠张镇方向的增长</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">最为明显。</span></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">（四）基于3种模型的典型近郊镇城镇开发边界试划</p></section><section style="height: 2px;width: 100%;background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">由上述分析可知，张集镇、棠张镇<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">等典型近郊镇处于徐州市的主要发展方</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">向上，较适宜进行城市集中开发建设，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">属于鼓励拓展的典型近郊镇；刘集镇位</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于徐州市的限制发展方向上，不适宜进</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">行集中开发建设；大彭镇等城镇的典型</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性不明显，属于一般型近郊镇(表5)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.330402" data-w="796" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcRXxiaicAYicECCPqcGoX3RrH4Qnib0ptaA1acko06ars9Bv8hPzqoUZ6Yw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">1.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于都市融入模型试划棠张镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇开发边界</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">棠张镇紧邻铜山城区和徐州新区，<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">已经呈现出明显的融合发展态势，其行</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">政范围内规划外环路以北、京沪高铁以</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">西已经划归铜山高新区管理，成为铜山</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区对接徐州新区的主要门户。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">棠张镇紧邻徐州市开发边界，镇内<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">不存在生态红线等限制性因素，地势平</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">坦，建设适宜性较高。因此，采用都市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">融入型模型试划棠张镇城镇开发边界，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">建议对徐州市开发边界进行调整，将京</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">沪高铁以西、规划外环路以北区域纳入</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">徐州市开发边界(图8)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.152513" data-w="577" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYc0K7WibB5AZVbuXMqGBuv5xgXA5mtJkmbHuwtwicE5AJLTOn2rcaF8HVA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">2.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于双弹性区模型试划张集镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇开发边界</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">张集镇与徐州市和观音机场的距离<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">均为20km，规划建设的轨道交通S2线，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">将实现张集镇与徐州市和观音机场的便</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">捷连接；生态环境良好，有吕梁山、故</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">黄河及多个水库( 非饮用水水源地)；当</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">前城镇发展水平较高，拥有龙头企业维</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">维集团和徐州市快递物流产业园区。同</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">时，徐州市重点项目——“方特欢乐世</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">界”已经确定选址张集镇，但由于各类</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">限制性因素，仅能满足该项目第一期落</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地需求(共四期)。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">为提高轨道交通设施利用效率，落<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">实徐州市政府布局的重大项目，实现可</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">能带动城镇发展的利好项目落地，可采</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">取市级弹性控制区的方式试划张集镇城</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇开发边界( 图9)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="1.2335766" data-w="548" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYcCMqgn06dNagzlYxMfX338ib9MOS9T4t8728npR1xycpZJXuQ4dcLuow/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 40px;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 8px;padding-right: 8px;color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">3.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">基于紧约束模型试划刘集镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城镇开发边界</span></p></section><section style="width: 40px;text-align: right;margin-left: auto;height: 5px;line-height: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(58, 140, 226);border-right-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-bottom-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);border-left-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 5px;height: 5px;border-radius: 50%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(58, 140, 226);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">刘集镇煤炭资源丰富，是徐州市重<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">要的煤炭资源开采基地之一，因煤炭开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">采造成镇内采煤塌陷区广泛分布，当前</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">多数尚未稳沉。近年刘集镇产业转型成</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">果初显，特色农业种植产品已经逐步打</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">开上海市场。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">考虑到刘集镇的城镇安全问题，本<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">次城镇开发边界的试划在分析限制性因</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">素的基础上，优先选择少量地质条件较</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">好的区域，作为农产品精深加工工业等</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的发展空间，镇区不做集中拓展，待镇</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">区周边采沉区稳沉后再考虑( 图10)。</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.6919315" data-w="818" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/j8bTq15u0mhEb7ricop8CUvRakopntqYc0bz0WLE9WzGEouLibrVibFRYE6enKkR5JPROGCWB7via9Gib1exZax9ArA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="png"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-bottom: -10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 6px;margin-left: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2px;margin: auto;height: 16px;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: bottom;width: 6px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 2px;margin: auto;height: 16px;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 50%;background-color: rgb(17, 19, 22);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="transform: rotate(0deg);margin-bottom: -5px;width: 5px;height: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="border-left: 5px solid rgb(255, 222, 3);border-bottom: 5px solid rgb(255, 222, 3);border-top-color: rgb(255, 222, 3);border-right-color: rgb(255, 222, 3);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(214, 240, 252);padding: 10px 10px 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">五</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">结语</strong></p></section></section><section style="margin-left: auto;margin-top: -5px;width: 5px;height: 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);padding: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(226, 226, 226) 0px 16px 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">划定城镇开发边界是国土空间规划</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的核心工作之一。近郊镇是城镇化快速</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展地区，是城镇空间拓展和产业布局</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的首要地区。大都市开发边界既能防止</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市盲目扩张和无序蔓延，促进城市发</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">展由外延扩张向内涵提升转变，又能优</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">化城镇布局形态和功能结构，因此应坚</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">持底线思维，在资源环境承载能力和国</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">土空间开发适宜性评价的基础上划定开</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发边界。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">首先，应综合考虑大都市和近郊镇<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的发展需求。在划定大都市及周边近郊</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇城镇开发边界过程中，应综合考虑大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都市发展的历史规律，判断当前的发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">阶段，以及未来一定时期内大都市在区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">域乃至国家范围内承担的职能与现有的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市规模、产业构成、基础设施等发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和建设水平之间的差距，保证国家和区</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">域发展战略落地的基本空间需求。近郊</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇在落实大都市发展战略的过程中，应</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">积极承担相应职能，积极承接大都市的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口或者产业功能的疏解、基础设施或</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">其他大型设施的布局。同时，对于承接</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">了大都市城市发展职能的近郊镇，应给</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">予一定的政策鼓励或资金支持，实现大</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">都市和近郊镇发展需求的协调。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">其次，应划定双重弹性发展区应对<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展的不确定性。对于大都市发展方向</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">上的近郊镇，以及有较大可能承接服务</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">于大都市重大项目的近郊镇周边，可适</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">当预留大都市的弹性发展区并纳入近郊</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">镇城镇开发边界以内，以应对大都市的</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展需求。大都市弹性发展区可减轻重</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大项目落地对近郊镇的发展空间的挤压</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">和分割，可布局于近郊镇集中建设区周</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">边，通过大都市发展项目的落地带动近</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">郊镇发展，以应对近郊镇和大都市发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的不确定性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 2em;white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">最后，应建立基于管理实施的弹性<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展区统筹机制。一是建立基于区级政</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">府或市级政府的空间资源弹性协调机制，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">统筹全区乃至全市的弹性发展区规模和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">空间布局、弹性发展区开发建设、占耕</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">指标和建设用地指标；对于近郊镇建设</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">中迫切需要解决的土地问题，从区级和</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市级层面进行协调，保障符合相关法律</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">法规要求、有利于大都市和近郊镇发展</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">的项目落地。二是对于落实了大都市重</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">大交通、市政和公共服务项目的近郊镇，</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">给予区级乃至市级土地指标支持，在征</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">地拆迁、镇基础设施和公共服务设施建</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">设方面给予一定的政策支持；对于丰富</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">了大都市城市功能，有益于丰富大都市</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">市民生活、有利于近郊镇发展的重大项</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">目，即使非国防、军事、交通、能源、</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">水利等重大项目，可尝试利用大都市弹</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">性发展区，在城市层面保障落地。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 2px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(181, 180, 180);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -5px 0% 5px;transform: translate3d(-5px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(252, 221, 93);padding: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="color: rgb(100, 100, 100);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">来源：2020年01期《规划师》杂志</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section><section style="margin: 0px 0% 8px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="background-color: rgb(181, 180, 180);height: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 10px 0% 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(100, 100, 100);line-height: 1.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">新媒体编辑：刘晓莹</p></section></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgb(100, 100, 100);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">审读：刘芳</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="padding: 5px;background-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-color: white;padding: 10px;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">文章全文详见《规划师》2020年01期</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">《</strong>大都市发展视角下的近郊镇城镇开发边界划定模型研究——以徐州市铜山区近郊镇为例<strong style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.45;box-sizing: border-box;">》</span></strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="width: 100%;font-size: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: 24px;border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="float: left;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"><section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-left: 23px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-left: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 16px;height: 8px;border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;margin-top: -8px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="width: 8px;height: 16px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section></section><section style="float: right;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 254) !important;"> <section style="width: 0px;height: 8px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);margin-right: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="width: 16px;margin-top: -1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 16px;height: 8px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-left: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(156, 94, 21);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  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href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTQ4NzAxNQ==&mid=2651356536&idx=1&sn=d5feec640103f5940a0b621a8c507139&chksm=8b424830bc35c1267a916584cbbc186a2484656cf6caa27951a0dc60ef8572be9f381555292b&scene=21#wechat_redirect" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" hasload="1" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">【规划师论坛1】中国城市绿色交通规划回顾与展望</a><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTQ4NzAxNQ==&mid=2651356571&idx=1&sn=b72b2477d8c353fd8d6106de4650e927&chksm=8b4248d3bc35c1c52a3d9ab2a5ff3bc1806b89387e5337d3469aa2aeb46d9d6b1b460563f135&scene=21#wechat_redirect" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" hasload="1" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">【规划师论坛2】从“单数城市”到“复数城市”——大型交通基础设施的绿色人本规划设计策略</a><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"  /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTQ4NzAxNQ==&mid=2651356595&idx=1&sn=c3323f3459086c996b3e51f1146e707d&chksm=8b4248fbbc35c1ed7262d3f99d50eb5c1237f99904fa6a07b22ed0f1a58eb21d09a07581d4a9&scene=21#wechat_redirect" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" hasload="1" style="color: var(--weui-LINK);-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">【规划师论坛3】城市绿色交通的内涵、特征及发展策略——基于国外实践经验的思考</a></p></section><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img data-ratio="0.3692308" data-w="65" src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/UqBZPotWf8ibyKsT50chz4KBq08H43OCFWjJvAUUXsZ2ezcj4rtwwK4p07P56V68FVtFFiaRqTHAMTCbu19JHZMg/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="vertical-align: middle;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;" data-type="gif"  /></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="height: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: left;border-top: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-left: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-right-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);border-bottom-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="height: 100%;width: 24px;float: right;border-top: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-right: 6px solid rgb(21, 103, 167);border-bottom-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);border-left-color: rgb(21, 103, 167);box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><br  /></section><section style="display: inline-block;color: transparent;clear: both;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section 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border-box;" data-type="jpeg"  /></section></section><section style="margin: 8px 0% 0px;text-align: left;transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgb(197, 36, 36);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;margin-bottom: 4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">《规划师》杂志社                                    </p></section><section style="border-top: 2px dotted rgb(95, 94, 102);width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 0;"><section style="line-height: 0;width: 0px;"><svg viewbox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="transform: translate3d(40px, 0px, 0px);box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(117, 114, 114);letter-spacing: 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