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<section style="line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0.5px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 16px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 1px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);padding: 3px 10px 3px 5px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);border-radius: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 35%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 80%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUJ3ibF0EBEbPPg8XWUm82ayYrE2OfWGa82C7gCINYjkMR3iclkuvMFFQg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" style="vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;height: auto;" data-backw="146" data-backh="146" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUJ3ibF0EBEbPPg8XWUm82ayYrE2OfWGa82C7gCINYjkMR3iclkuvMFFQg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 65%;box-shadow: rgb(160, 160, 160) 0px 0px 0px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 5px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 2px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">ID:</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 18%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUp757ynGwusWv7w5ZreOsiapFibfKCmfqHtQL6Kpyu1B5BoO5blpxib6DA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">恭</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 18%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUp757ynGwusWv7w5ZreOsiapFibfKCmfqHtQL6Kpyu1B5BoO5blpxib6DA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">贺</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 18%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUp757ynGwusWv7w5ZreOsiapFibfKCmfqHtQL6Kpyu1B5BoO5blpxib6DA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">新</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 18%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 50px;height: 50px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUp757ynGwusWv7w5ZreOsiapFibfKCmfqHtQL6Kpyu1B5BoO5blpxib6DA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">春</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">每一年春节，都是一场波澜壮阔的人口大迁徙。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这场大迁徙，主要集中于一二线城市与三四五线城市之间，主要分布于以胡焕庸线为标志的中东部地区。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.6148148" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERU1AMxWlALezibMzh5nkgseoKmD8upepYPh6JcMlSH54pxpCb4bCleCoA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="536" data-backh="329" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERU1AMxWlALezibMzh5nkgseoKmD8upepYPh6JcMlSH54pxpCb4bCleCoA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">在这短短半个月内，仅北上广深四大一线城市，就会减少两三千万人。而全国1800多个县城，将迎来巨大的人流和交通流量。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">然而，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">春节空城指数，是个反向指标。</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">春节空城越严重，恰恰说明外来人口越多，经济活力、城市吸引力就越强。相反，凡是春节拥堵加剧、限号限行不停、商场影院一座难求的城市，人口外流的风流就越大。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">从春节空城排行中，我们不难发掘城市的活力。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(233, 207, 135) 0px 0px 15px inset;padding: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: -20px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.0604167" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUoNdJbw75kbJ8NL1e2lNrDfLTlcf6XVnRL1icvJ7FwVaNZjbN6vFXcLA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="480" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">01</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">春节空城指数：</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">深圳夺冠，苏州超广州，郑州成都跻身前十</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgba(202, 180, 118, 0.5);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">春节空城指数，哪个城市最高？</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">根据腾讯地图、腾讯位置服务发布的《2019春节出行预测大数据报告》，春节“空城”指数最高的十大城市，分别是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">深圳、东莞、北京、上海、苏州、广州、杭州、郑州、成都、佛山</span></strong>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.6766667" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUYNRNrIOdGcBvoJJFlc78DsY3oVTE2Ubqr5QYukGGFfwoxxwaOP5UgQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="600" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="324" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUYNRNrIOdGcBvoJJFlc78DsY3oVTE2Ubqr5QYukGGFfwoxxwaOP5UgQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">在这十大城市中，有<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">四个城市位于珠三角</strong>，分别是深圳、东莞、广州、佛山；有<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三个城市位于长三角</strong>，分别是上海、苏州、杭州。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">京津冀区域</strong>仅有北京一城，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中部区域</strong>仅有郑州一城，<strong>西部区域</strong>仅有成都一城。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">这种格局，与人口流动的大趋势可谓相互契合，与中国的区域经济格局也相互映照。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">深圳空城指数最高，并不令人意外。</span></strong>深圳本来就是个外来人口之城，短短40年间，从一个小渔村变身为人口上千万的国际大都市，这正是得益于“孔雀东南飞”的全国人口大流动。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">苏州超过广州，位列第五名。</span></strong>这与其作为外贸工业之城的地位相关。相比于广州向现代服务业的转型，苏州的工业增长依旧强势。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 0px 0px 0px 1px;border-style: solid;border-left-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-right-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2018年，苏州规上工业总产值达到3.31万亿元，仅次于上海的3.48万亿，位居全国第二位。强大的工业，为苏州带来巨大的外来就业人口。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">同时，广州作为春节南向的最大旅游目的地之一，温暖气候、花城年味吸引了大量反向春运的人群，这让广州的空城指数有所降低。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">相比而言，郑州、成都跻身空城指数前十，更具信号意义。</span></strong>这说明二线强省会的虹吸效应正在扩大，一边承接来自于一线城市的回流人口，另一边通过强省会战略不断吸纳省内的流动人口。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">除了郑州和成都之外，武汉、西安、长沙、合肥等城市，也会逐渐上演这一幕。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(233, 207, 135) 0px 0px 15px inset;padding: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: -20px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.0604167" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUoNdJbw75kbJ8NL1e2lNrDfLTlcf6XVnRL1icvJ7FwVaNZjbN6vFXcLA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="480" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">02</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">流动人口排行：</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">深圳厦门领先，重庆石家庄垫底</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgba(202, 180, 118, 0.5);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">春节空城指数，与流动人口的分布相互映照，成为城市吸引力的最直观体现。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这是全国主要城市人口排行：</p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.9638889" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERU0PtbFkJiamA93LFXdBPu2VsAKvPcG5Kcgr9bg1srwKrwoBtcZPVMokA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="461" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERU0PtbFkJiamA93LFXdBPu2VsAKvPcG5Kcgr9bg1srwKrwoBtcZPVMokA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">从常住人口数来看，全国人口最多的城市当属<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">重庆</span></strong>，重庆也是全国唯一超过3000万人口的城市。事实上，重庆虽是直辖市，但体量上相当于一省。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">以2017年数据来看，常住人口超过1000万的城市共有11个，分别是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">重庆、上海、北京、成都、天津、广州、深圳、西安、石家庄、武汉、苏州</span></strong>。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">但以流动人口来看，这一排序就会发生较大变化，但与春节空城指数城市大致重合。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.68359375" data-s="300,640" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUsXXRdwCqib9xxiag51R28UUjlibnIQZCLSpzzzHeu6n7zDoR7YxfuGWAQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="327" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUsXXRdwCqib9xxiag51R28UUjlibnIQZCLSpzzzHeu6n7zDoR7YxfuGWAQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">不难看出，春运空城指数最高的十大城市，流动人口占比都位居全国前列。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">外来人口占比最多的城市是深圳，高达65%</span></strong>，其次是<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">厦门、宁波、苏州</strong>，占比全部超过50%。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">珠三角的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">广州、东莞、佛山</span></strong>，外来人口比例同样排在全国前列。广州是38%，东莞是49.85%，佛山是47.03%，人口吸引力可见一斑。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">长三角的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">上海、苏州、杭州</span></strong>，外来人口占比同样排在前列。上海是40%，苏州是50.37%，杭州是49.01%。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">京津冀的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">北京、天津、石家庄</span></strong>，分布极其悬殊。北京以36.59%的比例位居第一阵营，天津以32.21%的比例位居第二阵营，石家庄仅为8.13%，处于垫底位置。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">至于人口总量最多的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">重庆</span></strong>，流动人口占比却处于垫底位置。这时因为重庆人口大量流出，近年来虽有回流，但依然挡不住流出。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(233, 207, 135) 0px 0px 15px inset;padding: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: -20px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.0604167" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUoNdJbw75kbJ8NL1e2lNrDfLTlcf6XVnRL1icvJ7FwVaNZjbN6vFXcLA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="480" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">03</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">三大城市群的人口迁徙</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgba(202, 180, 118, 0.5);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">长三角、珠三角和京津冀，是中国最大的三个城市群，也是吸纳外来人口最多的三大地区，同样也是春运人口迁徙的主要来源地。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">根据国家卫健委发布的《中国流动人口发展报告2018》，三大城市群的人口流动各具特征。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在省际人口流动方面，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">京津冀主要以河南、山东、黑龙江为主</span></strong>，主要都是北部省份，其中河南、山东占比均高达17%以上。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">珠三角以湖南、广西、四川为主</span></strong>，主要是泛珠三角地区的南方省份，其中与广东相邻的湖南、广西两省占比都高达20%以上。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">长三角以安徽、河南、江西为主</span></strong>，主要是与长三角相距不远的中部省份，仅安徽占比就超过30%，而河南再一次显示其劳动力输出大省地位。</p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1.6552795" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUx1qpkKCka3XlJVdicCFJTqOOfXGsicia7VPqGvZdY3jg0R4cJCHae4JtQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="644" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="792" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUx1qpkKCka3XlJVdicCFJTqOOfXGsicia7VPqGvZdY3jg0R4cJCHae4JtQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160);font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;">▎图表来源：21世纪经济报道</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">在长三角区域，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">上海、杭州</span></strong>是最大的流动人口吸纳地；在长三角，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">广深佛莞</span></strong>均具有人口吸纳效应；在京津冀，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">北京</span></strong>是主要人口吸纳地。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1.9612725" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUn5m1YwLf5cnuLySB53d1jgkuicNCW9AJB2nuyibjrr6DzFCN0cmicDEmw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="723" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="939" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUn5m1YwLf5cnuLySB53d1jgkuicNCW9AJB2nuyibjrr6DzFCN0cmicDEmw/640?wx_fmt=png"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">这与春节期间全国人口大迁徙的路径基本一致，北京面向河南山东，上海杭州面向安徽河南，广深面向湖南广西四川。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;box-shadow: rgb(233, 207, 135) 0px 0px 15px inset;padding: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: -20px 0% 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.0604167" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUoNdJbw75kbJ8NL1e2lNrDfLTlcf6XVnRL1icvJ7FwVaNZjbN6vFXcLA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="480" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">04</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">人口流动的四大趋势</strong></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: rgba(202, 180, 118, 0.5);height: 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;letter-spacing: 0px;padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">人口总量的增减，反映着城市吸引力的变化。而外来人口的多少，则是城市活力最为直观的指数。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">随着2018年新生人口数量创下40年新低，全国的人口形势愈发严峻，城市之间的人口竞争越来越白热化，谁能吸引更多外来人口，谁能获得更多人口增量，谁就能在新一轮经济周期和房地产周期中获得强支撑。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">具体而言，近年来，中国人口流动出现四大趋势：</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">其一，一线城市出现分化。</span></strong>2017年和2018年，京沪人口连续两年降低，这是城市主动抽疏中心城区人口和产业升级的因素所致，并不代表人口吸引力下降。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">与此同时，广深人口吸纳力进一步扩大，2017年，深圳常住人口增加61.99万，广州常住人口增加45.49万，双双位于全国前列，一线城市的优势仍旧无与伦比。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="0.6064815" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUtrfbOHg3Ps2uz2Via1arVAt7m91pRbeTp89mXY5ic4xdSMM44FVlcJcg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="290" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUtrfbOHg3Ps2uz2Via1arVAt7m91pRbeTp89mXY5ic4xdSMM44FVlcJcg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">其二，强二线城市人口吸纳力增强。</span></strong>苏州、杭州、郑州、成都等二线城市进入全国空城指数十强，外来人口比例同样位居全国前列，这说明强二线城市在人口竞争中越来越具有优势。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">尤其是随着强省会战略的推进，加上抢人大战的刺激效应，二线城市将会获得源源不断的人口增量。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1.2310797" src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUuZuAlSENFpILnDQW7caRE7noKYficQjgAgNMPG5mkhP8T1uQjbwozVQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="991" style="vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;width: 100%;height: auto;" data-backw="479" data-backh="589" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/KoH4xpDrnibDpEKrKPJ6RE0dHgB44KERUuZuAlSENFpILnDQW7caRE7noKYficQjgAgNMPG5mkhP8T1uQjbwozVQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg"  /></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(138, 23, 23);box-sizing: border-box;">其三，大城市群效应越来越突出。</span></strong>未来城市之间的竞争，必然是城市群之间的竞争。哪个城市群辐射力最强，就能吸纳最多的人口。这方面，珠三角和长三角遥遥领先，京津冀次之，其他城市群还有待孵化。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-align: left;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span 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border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(39, 39, 39);box-sizing: border-box;">为人与空间策划沟通的桥梁</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(39, 39, 39);box-sizing: border-box;">在城市、乡村、景区实践着我们的追求</span></strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br  /></p></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin: 5px 0%;text-align: center;line-height: 0.8;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;display: inline-block;border-top: 0.8em solid rgb(171, 211, 224);border-left: 0.7em solid transparent !important;border-right: 0.7em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;background-color: rgb(239, 239, 239);border-width: 0px;border-radius: 0px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(105, 105, 105);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 13px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中规建业城市规划设计院（北京）有限公司</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">地址：</strong>北京市海淀区学清路9号汇智大厦B座</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">电话：</strong>010-86221338</p></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 100%;text-align: right;margin-top: -4px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 50px;height: 4px;background-color: rgb(125, 106, 96);box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="raw-image" data-ratio="1" 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