国匠城工作台

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<section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 95%;vertical-align: top;border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(24, 54, 118);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: -30px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 24px;color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">导读</strong></em></span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(95, 156, 239);line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2016年10月，联合国人居Ⅲ大会将“韧性城市”作为《新城市议程》的创新内容。会后，北规院通过北京市规划和国土资源管理委员会申请市财政的资助，由规划研究室牵头，会同市政所、交通所、清华大学、中科院地理所和爱特拉斯公司，共同开展了《北京韧性城市规划纲要研究》工作，并与2017年12月8日通过专家评审和结题验收。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 52%;padding-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 0px 1px;border-style: solid dotted solid none;border-left-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-right-color: rgb(152, 152, 152);padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 5px;padding-left: 10px;border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;border-top-right-radius: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">本文字数：</strong><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">3701字</span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">阅读时间：</strong><span style="color: rgb(95, 156, 239);box-sizing: border-box;">12分钟</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 30%;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="font-size: 24px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;border-width: 2px;border-style: dashed;border-color: transparent;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 3em;height: 3em;border-radius: 100%;background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: 100%;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwStXalnyjGMwiaUFfcTmcwjibZzE6TkGz6I4l16QtCiaRWrhFXGtSFxicHAA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 100%;height: 100%;overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwStXalnyjGMwiaUFfcTmcwjibZzE6TkGz6I4l16QtCiaRWrhFXGtSFxicHAA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">2016年10月，联合国人居Ⅲ大会将“韧性城市”作为《新城市议程》的创新内容。会后，北规院通过北京市规划和国土资源管理委员会申请市财政的资助，由规划研究室牵头，会同市政所、交通所、清华大学、中科院地理所和爱特拉斯公司，共同开展了《北京韧性城市规划纲要研究》工作，并与2017年12月8日通过专家评审和结题验收。课题组梳理了国内外韧性城市相关的理论研究，与传统防灾规划作了比较。研究结合北京的实际情况，建立了风险数据库，从全要素、全过程、全空间三个方面优化了风险评估模型，从城市系统和韧性管理两个维度构建了城市韧性度评价体系，并提出了提升策略。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 300px;height: 90px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSCgDTOOxrxP0u6OaV9fHgZDBHrokwNxkJxicBCQ5ibQRZXXuWdvoHLo9g/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(70, 87, 114);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">01 韧性何谓</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">韧性城市缘起背景</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 68.3688%;background-attachment: scroll;padding: 15px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSxsibDic5iaUEYIcw0f5KcsVGk9O54oMDzL8VNzgvibPQFfMibCpuZf4ZibAA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align: justify;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">“2005—2014年的10年间，中国平均每年发生29次灾害事件，死亡10469人，经济损失265.6亿美元。”</p><p style="text-align: right;box-sizing: border-box;">——联合国国际减灾战略(UNISDR)数据</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">随着社会经济的发展和人口的迅速增长，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">城市人口、资源与环境矛盾日益加深</span></strong>，加之自然灾害频发，灾害对城市造成的影响也越来越大，己经成为当今人类社会面临的最主要问题之一[1]。国际上不同机构的统计数据表明灾害发生频率呈上升趋势[2]。而我国每年因灾害造成的非正常死亡人数超过20万人，伤残人数超过200万人，经济损失上万亿元。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSqwgyT8khPHB9jTjNwRWzs60ibQ9OGNN6nzNgeVkJ0GqB8TiaV64ib7EVA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图1 现代城市面临的多种灾害示意图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">城市如何在重重挑战与危机中，应对各种变化[3]，保持自身的发展活力，如何提高城市系统面对不确定性因素的响应和适应能力，以及灾害发生后如何提高城市社会—经济系统的恢复力成为一个亟待解决的重要问题。“韧性城市”理念在这一背景下应运而生[4-7]，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">它一方面强调应对外来冲击的缓冲能力，另一方面强调增强城市的学习能力，</span></strong>抓住挑战带来的机遇，保持发展活力。国内外的研究机构尝试了不同的技术方法，研究涉及不同城市和国家[8] ，内容涉及地震、飓风等多种灾害。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">提升城市规划的预见性和引导性逐渐成为当前国际城市规划领域研究的热点和焦点问题</span></strong>[9][10]。为了有效评价和科学量化城市韧性，不同研究机构从各自领域出发建立起韧性城市研究的框架体系 [11-13]。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">相较于传统的防灾减灾规划，<span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">韧性城市的研究范畴拓展到自然灾害、事故灾害、公共卫生和社会安全等城市风险的全领域，更强调城市系统对各种风险的适应、恢复和学习转化能力。</strong></span>二者差异性可总结为以下三个方面：<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">研究范畴拓展</span></strong>，从单一防灾到自然灾害、事故灾害、公共卫生和社会安全等全要素风险领域；<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">观念思路转变</span></strong>，从基于传统工程思维的防御规划转向动态风险评估基础上的适应性规划；<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">技术方法转变</span></strong>，从工程技术标准或经验测算到城市的安全风险综合评估与预测。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSk26cZpcUKFzM4nbPqh7WXtf3Ax6F78vlgo83uyicGP3BaJOARvmEmeg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图2 韧性城市与综合防灾减灾研究范围差异图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 300px;height: 90px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSCgDTOOxrxP0u6OaV9fHgZDBHrokwNxkJxicBCQ5ibQRZXXuWdvoHLo9g/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(70, 87, 114);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">02 “韧”性何为</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">韧性城市规划纲要</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 68.3688%;background-attachment: scroll;padding: 15px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSxsibDic5iaUEYIcw0f5KcsVGk9O54oMDzL8VNzgvibPQFfMibCpuZf4ZibAA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">《一个更强大，更有韧性的纽约》（A Stronger, More Resilient New York）</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">《管理风险和增强韧性》（Managing Risks And Increasing Resilience）</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">《芝加哥气候行动计划》(Chicago Climate Proof)</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">《鹿特丹气候防护计划》(Rotterdam Climate Proof) [14]</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">北京韧性城市规划纲要将搭建韧性城市规划的技术框架，进而为北京市韧性城市建设和综合风险防控提供理论依据和技术支撑。其<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">风险评估可以从全要素、全流程以及全空间三个部分加以展开</span></strong>；而<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">韧性评价可以从城市系统和韧性管理两个维度加以展开。</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12%;padding-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 42px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</strong></em></span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 80%;background-color: rgb(244, 242, 242);padding: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">全要素评估：建立风险数据库</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">本研究以国内权威认可的清华大学公共安全研究院建立的<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">328种致灾因子的全要素数据库为基础</span></strong>，除去北京未涉及的因子，并综合考虑发生频率、成灾强度、影响范围及其与城乡规划的关联性等因素，归并得到37种致灾因子，作为重点研究对象。自然灾害（16种）：水旱灾害、气象灾害、地震灾害、地质灾害、生物灾害和森林火灾等；事故灾害（13种）：矿产事故、交通运输事故、公用设施和设备事故、危化品事故、火灾事故、环境污染和生态破坏事故等；公共卫生（3种）：传染病疫情、慢性疫情和食品药品安全事件；社会安全（5种）：恐怖袭击、群体性事件、民族宗教冲突、禁毒、治安等。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSIn57DoVdSepy1p50KeJlcibZibkibjla5R2bMK7HDcZcUxymaI7nGD9mg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图3 风险因子筛选过程图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12%;padding-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 42px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</strong></em></span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 80%;background-color: rgb(244, 242, 242);padding: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">全过程模拟：完善风险评估体系</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">单灾种风险评估</span></strong>：针对16种自然灾害，从致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性、防灾能力及其对次生衍生灾害的影响等方面入手，构建自然灾害单灾种风险评估体系。并选择泥石流、森林火灾和雪灾等北京市典型的自然灾害开展风险评估与区划，确定了不同灾害的风险等级、影响范围和潜在损失。针对13种事故灾害，建立重大危险源单灾种风险评估体系。通过动力学演化模型及多相耦合效应研究，对北京市主要爆炸物的燃烧传热过程、波及范围及其可能造成的人员伤害和建筑物破坏等进行定量评估和预测。并综合考虑人口和经济因素，对爆炸及危化品泄露的耦合风险进行仿真模拟、轨迹回放和后果分析。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSOda090POq16SMJHjW6txoWunViaDxnbQdjJvfFj9OPIYMfrTFWqLkJw/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图4 不同单灾种风险评估图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">多灾种风险耦合</span></strong>：在此基础上，建立多灾种耦合的综合风险评估体系。应用链式理论和事件链原理识别典型灾害之间的内在关联性，构建不同风险源的耦合关系矩阵，并将时空数据挖掘和灾害演化动力学相结合，搭建城市灾害链动态风险评估模型。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSjbx9AZH7tlhK63Gict16F3UsHgXtz5stUASticHXTtutSN5Gl9gSnFcA/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图5 台风—暴雨—滑坡—城市内涝—交通堵塞灾害链风险评估模型图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12%;padding-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 42px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</strong></em></span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 80%;background-color: rgb(244, 242, 242);padding: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">全空间区划：综合风险区划及查询系统构建</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">为了科学绘制全市及中心城综合风险地图，建立极化模型对54个数据图层进行叠加分级，形成8291个综合风险区划的矢量斑块。并<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">筛选高风险区域进行分类编码，构建综合风险数据库和信息查询系统</span></strong>。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwS7kkSSclQa1u1nnxQ9oMoQvf2ldvOmnsIzsHFa2wIlHNKKIkZQwbeeQ/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图6 综合风险区划图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 12%;padding-right: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 42px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);line-height: 1;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</strong></em></span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 80%;background-color: rgb(244, 242, 242);padding: 8px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: left;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">城市韧性度评价</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">研究从城市系统和韧性管理2个维度出发</span></strong>，构建包含12个方面、83个绩效指标的韧性城市评价指标体系，再归一化形成韧性度指数，以有效评价和科学量化城市的韧性水平。各类三级指标具有代表性、典型性，能明确反应二级指标的内涵，且体现了多样性、冗余性、适应性、鲁棒性、协同性和恢复力六大韧性特征。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSibhz3Vk1LjKmPadtnOibqZ5GeJeNG4iaGT7q9uyWWYHUVnJLwmTgOuIZg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图7 韧性城市指标体系构成图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSEVIA39BHg16RVDgYTWXrSXQPCHcMrm2Ux3FpwicPmIUnaaicVIgCS4Lg/640?wx_fmt=png" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></p></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">图8 韧性城市指标体系框架图</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">利用韧性度指数对北京市现状及新总规实施后的规划韧性水平进行测算，得到现状综合韧性度为2.60。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">在北京目前的的城市系统中，人员和基础设施较高，生态环境较差；韧性管理中，领导力最好，恢复能力、京津冀协同和监测预警能力较弱，有待进一步提高。</span></strong>而规划2020年和2035年可分别提高至3.57和4.48。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 300px;height: 90px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;background-size: contain;background-attachment: scroll;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSCgDTOOxrxP0u6OaV9fHgZDBHrokwNxkJxicBCQ5ibQRZXXuWdvoHLo9g/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 30px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 18px;color: rgb(70, 87, 114);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">03 强韧之策</strong></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">北京城市韧性度提高</strong></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;background-position: 0% 0%;background-repeat: repeat;background-size: 68.3688%;background-attachment: scroll;padding: 15px;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;background-image: url("http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSxsibDic5iaUEYIcw0f5KcsVGk9O54oMDzL8VNzgvibPQFfMibCpuZf4ZibAA/640?wx_fmt=png");box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">有力支撑《北京城市总体规划（2016年—2035年）》“强化城市韧性”要求。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">关于韧性提升对策的研究成果已纳入《推进北京地震安全韧性城市建设行动计划（2018-2020年）及2018年实施方案》（京抗震发[2018]2号文）当中。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">韧性城市规划的理论体系和技术方法，为国家发展改革委和住房城乡建设部开展《气候适应型城市建设导则》的编制工作提供了重要的借鉴和参考。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">以提高城市韧性度为出发点，明确北京韧性城市规划的目标，提出<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">规划体系和管理体制</span></strong>两大方面的具体对策[15]。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">一方面，严控中心城人口和建筑规模</span></strong>，优化城市空间布局，推动基础设施韧性规划，增强冗余性、连通性和模块化设计。<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面，健全城市综合风险管理体系</span></strong>。构建多级联动的综合管理平台，提升应急响应能力；推广多元参与的社会共治模式，培养全民韧性意识。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(15, 60, 143);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">城市规模调控</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">中心城是全市承灾体暴露度、脆弱性最高，综合风险较集中的区域，应<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">严格控制中心城特别是中心地区的人口和建筑密度</span></strong>。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">空间布局优化</span></strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">关注高风险区域、脆弱人群、生态安全格局构建。</span></strong>对于高风险性和高脆弱性的地区，应进一步确定建设控制要求;对于现状无法满足安全规范要求及具有重大安全隐患的危险源，应尽快加强监控或进行排除。在灾害风险防控中应重点关注远郊区县孤寡老人和留守儿童，建立脆弱人群清单，提高防灾自救的意识和能力。应将“刚性约束”和“弹性引导”相结合，在城市生态控制线、生态保护红线的刚性约束下，加强弹性引导，构建生态安全格局。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: rgb(15, 60, 143);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;">基础设施保障</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">降低基础设施脆弱性、提高冗余性和连通性，优化空间布局。</span></strong>从以往基础设施规划“够不够”向“稳不稳”转变；提高高风险区及极端天气下的市政、交通基础设施和各类防灾减灾设施的设计标准，重点保护，加强适应性；增加各系统之间的连通性，实现系统间相互备份，提高干线系统的供应安全。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">响应能力提升</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">应急避难场所、避灾通道和救灾通道规划。</span></strong>现状（2015年）共4325个避难场所，人均0.78平方米；规划2020年人均应急避难场所面积达1.09平方米，2035年达到1.74平方米。</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);background-color: rgb(15, 60, 143);box-sizing: border-box;">社会多元共治</span></strong></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">增强宣传教育、鼓励多元参与、推进制度改革，<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(139, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box;">构建多级联动的综合管理平台</span></strong>。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="border-radius: 0.5em 0.5em 0px 0px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: center;padding: 5px 10px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">作者信息</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section class="" style="border-radius: 0px 0px 0.5em 0.5em;border-right: 1px solid rgb(192, 200, 209);border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(192, 200, 209);border-left: 1px solid rgb(192, 200, 209);border-top: none rgb(192, 200, 209);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;padding: 5px 10px;font-size: 15px;line-height: 2;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">赵丹</strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">：女，博士，高级工程师，北京市城市规划设计研究院</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">何永</strong>：女，博士，教授级高级工程师，学会城市生态规划学术委员会副主任委员，北京市城市规划设计研究院，规划研究室副主任</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">杨兵</strong>：男，硕士，工程师，北京市城市规划设计研究院</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="text-align: justify;line-height: 2;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(160, 160, 160);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">参考文献：</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[1]   闪淳昌. 建立突发公共事件应急机制的探讨[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2005, 1(2):24-26.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[2]  Scheuren J M, le Polain de Wa roux O, Below R, etal. Annual Disaster Statistical Review: The Numbers and Tends 2007[M]. Brussels Belgium: Center for Research on the Epidemio logy of Disasters(CRED), 2008.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[3]  明晓东, 徐伟, 刘宝印,等. 多灾种风险评估研究进展[J]. 灾害学, 2013, 28(1):126-132.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[4]  Manyena S. B. The concept of resilience revisited. Disaster. 2006,30(4):434-450.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[5]  Holling C. S. Resilience and stability of ecological system. An-nual Review of Ecological System. 1973, 4: 1-23.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[6]  Meerow S, Newell J. P, Stults M. Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and urban planning. 2016,147: 38-49.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[7]  Munich Re. Topics: annual review，natural catastrophes 2002[R]. Munich，Germany，2002．</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[8]  蔡建明, 郭华, 汪德根. 国外弹性城市研究述评. 地理科学进展. 2012，31(10): 1245-1255.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[9]  黄晓军, 黄馨, 弹性城市及其规划框架初探. 城市规划. 2015, 32(2): 50-56.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[10] 李彤玥, 牛品一, 顾超林. 弹性城市研究框架综述. 城市规划学刊. 2014, 5: 23-31.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[11] 彭翀, 袁敏航, 顾超林等. 区域弹性的理论与实践研究进展. 城市规划学刊. 2015,1: 84-92.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[12] Ahen J. From fain-safe to safe-to-fail: sustainability and resilience in the new urban world. Landscape and urban planning. 2011,100(4): 341-34.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[13] Godschalk D. R. Urban Hazard mitigation: creating resilience cities. Nature Hazards Review. 2013,4(3): 136-143. </p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[14] 郑艳. 推动城市适应规划,构建韧性城市——发达国家的案例与启示. 世界环境. 2013,6: 50-53.</p><p style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">[15] 刘丹, 华晨. 弹性概念的演化及对城市规划创新的启示. 城市发展研究. 2014, 21(11): 111-117.</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="width: 100%;padding-bottom: 5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 10px;background-color: rgb(239, 239, 239);box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding: 2px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(239, 66, 119);box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;margin-right: 5px;display: inline-block;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"  /></p></section><section class="" style="padding-right: 5px;padding-left: 5px;display: inline-block;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">相关阅读</p></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">政策建议专栏 | 我国韧性城市建设面临的现状问题与建设对策<br  /></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">聚焦城市安全，建设韧性城市，2018地震灾后重建学术论坛在蓉举办<br  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="max-width: 100%;vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;overflow: hidden !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center"><img src="http://read.html5.qq.com/image?src=forum&q=5&r=0&imgflag=7&imageUrl=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/3rV5DOkGgCZ4ZIVnBhVIMWSX4OnLoDwSO8LzEGyvmGfN1SEWy3a0w1Ne2qdzMyf5ibmm3POJZRVv8FGFb2dvVkQ/640?wx_fmt=gif" style="max-width:100%;" /></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-gulangu V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="gulangu"><section class="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="" style="color: rgb(255, 30, 41);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;text-align: right;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">觉得好，请点赞↓↓↓</strong></p></section></section></section></section>
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